Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Playoffs? We talkin about playoffs?

Episode Date: May 11, 2021

Today's a bit of a longer episode but at long last, Nick Zararis joins the show again to preview the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs as half of the matchups have been set. The two start with the Central and the Battle of Florida before heading over to the Carolina series. Does Florida have a chance to upset the champs, even without Ekblad? Who else, other than Juuse Saros, could will Nashville to a historic upset. They then go to the East Division and talk about how Boston-Washington will be the best series of the first round overall, before briefly touching on Penguins-Islanders. After that, they do the West division and if we don't get Colorado-Vegas in the second round, there may not be a God. Finally, they wrap up the episode with the North as everyone's hoping to see Matthews against McDavid in the second round and preview that division.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.WealthfrontTo get your first $5,000 managed for FREE, for life, go to wealthfront.com/LockedOnNHL. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, welcome to this Tuesday afternoon episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the shows Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins.

Just as a reminder, we've got a new podcast that will help you get Hockey Smart, the Cross Check Podcast. hosted by Mary Clark and Andrew Berkshire goes deeper into NHL stories than any other podcast with the help of the smartest minds on ice. Follow the cross-check podcast on the Audacity app or whatever you get podcasts. But today is a very special episode

of Lockdown Penguins podcast. We're doing basically a full playoff preview with Nick Zararis who writes for the Gotham Sports Network and does his podcast for Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Basically, he's been on this podcast. numerous times. Nick, how are we doing today? Thank you so much for coming on to preview the greatest playoff tournament in sports. I can't complain. This is the best time of year as a

content creator. Like I talked about with you earlier when you asked me last minute, like, can you jump on today instead of tomorrow because of the scheduling thing? I was like, yeah, sure. I get two podcasts to record, one tomorrow. This is the best time of year. We get infinite number of hockey things to talk about. And let's get on into it, man. We got a lot to cover. Yes, we're going to be doing basically every series. You know, well, the North looks like it's locked up. Hopefully Edmonton doesn't mess anything.

Edmonton, hopefully Winnipeg doesn't collapse again tonight. They can beat Vancouver. The North is locked up. And then the West, Vegas should be able to get first place, but if not, you know, we'll preview both their series kind of in a way against St. Louis or Minnesota.

But first up, Nick, we have the Central here. I'm going to start my timer at five minutes. We're going to do five minutes per series, starting now. So we have the Battle of Florida for the first time ever, a rivalry that I think has been long awaited to see happen in the Stanley Cup playoffs. We saw both those two teams play in the last two games of the regular season. Florida beat them both times.

Nick, in my opinion, when I look at this first up, I think the Panthers can give them more of a fight than other people think they could. And I would probably still lean Tampa Bay in seven. but Florida with if you look at their underlying numbers and you go to evolving hockey or whatever overall they have 55% of the actual goals if you go to expected goals almost 55% there you have to go down to number nine where Tampa Bay is at 53% for the expected goals for at 5E5 how do you see that series shaking out this is an interesting one Florida has given them a hard time in the regular season Florida won five of the eight games when they went head to head.

Tampa's gone through kind of a lull, I'll say. They were playing really well for a while. They kind of got their playoff spot locked up pretty early. And I won't say they were coasting because that's unfair to them, but it's a little hard to be grinding the axe that hard against some of the mediocre teams in that division, pushing to the floor every single night. They're coming off of a cup win already.

I expect Tampa Bay to be fine. I think Tampa Bay, like you said, will win this series in six or seven games. But Florida can keep this interesting. Florida has enough talent to make this a series, for sure. This is one of the better coaching matchups we're going to get in the first round between Cooper and Coach Q. I think it really will come down to the goaltending for Florida. We've seen it this year. When Florida's been right, it's because their goaltetting's played well,

and the forwards have been able to do enough. I don't think they're going to be able to start Dreger in the playoffs because you're paying Bob all that money. But it's part of the story. we're going to see, like you said, though. I definitely lean Tampa, but Florida can make this an entertaining series. I think they probably will start Dreger, though. I understand your point with Sergey Barovsky making fucking over 10 million per or something like that right now.

But he has not been getting a lot of starts lately, I don't think, for Florida. Anyway, so I think they may have to go to the other goalie who has performed better than Bob this season. And I can't wait to see how Barkov goes up against that top line, especially when Kucharov comes back. I know Stamcoast has obviously hurt too. I mean, he's been hurt for like the last several seasons with numerous injuries. But I think the big thing for Tampa to win this series, they got to get Victor Hedman back to being the Victor Hedman.

We all know he can be. He's probably not going to win the Norris the season, rightfully so. He's definitely hit a low from, I think, the last month. But it's also because he's been banged up. I think I read an article today where he's kind of delaying some surgery for something. He's just playing through it. I mean, that's just who Victor Hed. than his as a player, but I mean, they need to get him back playing at the high level.

We all know that he can be playing at if they want to win this series. Obviously, Andre Vasselovsky is going to be very tough for Florida to be four out of seven times. He's my Vezna pick if I had to go at that right now. But I'm just curious to see how this goes. I mean, Patrick Hornquist, I think, is going to be an interesting player to see how Tampa Bay matches up against him with how he is in front of the net. Mackenzie Weeger has been awesome for Florida as well. Really taking that place as the number one defenseman, especially since Ekplod is out for the rest of the year. I really think if Ekplod were in this series, I'd be more inclined to pick Florida to upset them just because of how great of a season he was having.

But I really like Florida's team overall, but I still lean Tampa Bay in seven for this one. Yeah, no, definitely. I can't argue with you on that. We know this time of year, everybody's hurt, basically. This is the time of year where every single team is hurt in hockey. It's a matter of how badly you're hurt, and how many guys on your team are hurt badly enough that they can't play. You know, that's always one of the things on breakup day

as you hear the things that people were playing through. I mean, we saw it yesterday. Iko said, yeah, I was playing with a herniated disc in my neck for a couple of weeks. And you've realized just how much goes into making this happen. And if Hedman's not right, typically is not going to be Carolina in round two. so it doesn't matter anyway. But that's neither here nor there. It really will come down to how well headman play is.

When Tampa Bay's right, you have him, you have McDonough, you have Savard who's been decent for them when he's been in the lineup and Sergachev. That's a really good four defensemen that you can sprinkle out where you can put one of those guys away from the other ones on their own pair. You can double shift headman if he's up for it. And Tampa Bay knows what it takes. Obviously, that's a little bit of a cliche, but we saw them win the cup last year.

in some really difficult circumstances. It wouldn't surprise me if they ran it back this year. Not at all. They just got to get healthy, and they got to get their key contributors contributing again. Yeah, I really think that's the biggest key for them. Like you said, got to get headman back to playing well.

Kutrault coming back is obviously huge. I think he's been practicing with them for like a month now. Yeah. I think Stan Kost will be back. I know he's, like I said, he's been battling a bunch of injuries. They still have Palat. They still have Korn.

Like you said, McDonough, Sarvard, Vaselovsky, Nett. John Cooper is one of the best coaches. in hockey. I don't think home ice is going to pay too much of a factor in this one just because the Panthers really don't sound arena anyway. But it'll still be nice. I think it's obviously a huge talking point in that state anyway just because those two teams have never played before. Tampa Bay is only what a three hour drive away from sunrise on probably a good day down in Florida. So of all this series, I think this one is the most intriguing. And I really think this can build

up the rivalries. I understand a lot of people are kind of sick and tired of the same teams playing every year in the playoffs, but this one we've been waiting to see both of these two teams being elite in the same season for quite a long time. But yeah, Nick, I still have Tampa and 7 though. I think you have basically the same

thing with your pick. And with that five minutes is up, we have to go to the next one. Carolina and Nashville. What a story it was for the Predators? What were they? Like 11 and 16 and 2 around mid-March. Dom said of the athletic, their playoff odds

were at 2% at the time, went 19 and 7 and 1, I think, since. And UC Soros, you know, saved 13, almost 14 goals above expected during that time frame, basically willed them to the Stanley Cup playoffs. I understand Pecorine has been there a long time,

and he's a total pro, and he was one of the better goalies in the league. That time has passed now, and the torch has been sent, excuse me, to UC Soros, who's been incredible. I think that, I know they'll have Yosey back, This team, you know, Nashville has a lot of talent, but I still see this as Carolina is to lose, and rightfully so.

You know, you look at the data and you look at the expected goals for per 16 minutes. I mean, Carolina is up there at number six. They control 54% of the expected goals for. Even if you go to their actual goals for 56.4%. I mean, it's just, it's ridiculous how well they have played this year. Rod Rindamore, one of the best coaches in hockey. They can run four lines at you. Their defense is solid.

In net, they've been getting better than average goal tending. I probably have Carolina in five to six here. But if National's top talent, you know, like Yossi and Ellis and Forsberg and, you know, if Victor Arvinson can come back from the day, like he was playing so well a few years ago, they could make this a series. But I just, I really like how Carolina's rolling right now. This is probably the biggest mismatch in terms of talent if you're going player by player between the two teams. Because like you said, Carolina can roll out four lines. They have three strong defensive pairs.

The goaltending is the one area where you can give Nashville decisive edge, but you also give the coaching edge of Brighamore over Hines. This is a really interesting thing. I was thinking about this earlier. This is kind of looking at a time machine between these two teams because what Carolina is now is basically what Nashville was like three or four years ago, where they were. roll out the four lines. I got the active D who can really help drive play. Elite defensive team that doesn't give you an inch, really good below the goal line, cycling the puck, working the high, low game. And we've seen it. Nashville missed their window of opportunity. They had a really good team. They went to the cup final and lost to the penguins. The following year, they were in the mix and won the president's trophy, didn't get out of the second round of the playoffs because they lost to

Winnipeg. Really good team that never really ascended as high as they probably could have. They made the moves they did. They trade for Johansen. They bring in Duchenne, and you change your composition of your team. They missed their window. Carolina is a team now that this is it. I thought last year was finally the year Carolina breaks through. They make a run of the cup final. They got way too dinged up. They didn't really have a chance in the series against Boston last year. But for all intents and purposes, Carolina's right there with the other elite teams in the league. I think they had the fourth or fifth best odds to win the cup on Fandil when I looked earlier. They're right there with Colorado, Vegas, and I guess you kind of have to put

Toronto because they have the easiest path to get to the final four just in terms of odds. Carolina is an awesome hockey team. Barring injury, I don't really see a way Nashville can win this series. I just don't. Yeah, I mean, like Carolina can literally just stack. Terabine and Aho and Setschnakov on one line if they choose to. And you can't get the puck away from them. You just can't. And that's just not fair. And of course they have Jordan Stahl down the lineup, who to this day is still one of the best two-way centers in hockey. I mean, they have, I can keep going. I mean, obviously the big defenseman.

Dougie Hamilton's incredible. Jacob Slavin's always underrated. Brett Pesci is great as well. I don't really know which goal we will start, but honestly, does it matter that much? I think everyone would probably want to see Carolina, Tampa, in the second round. I think that's what we're going to get,

because that would be a series for the ages, especially if both those teams are healthy. Just to see, you know, how Tampa Bay goes up against the super line that Carolina has, you know, how they go up against the Kuturav line when he's fully healthy. But yeah, I mean, like I said, Nashville has

elite talent, but it's not as much as Carolinas. That's the thing. They're deeper than Nashville. For Nashville to win this series, not only were the elite talent have to really step up, UC Soros is going to have to continue to save around 14 goals above expected as he did

during the final stretch of this But we still have a bunch more previews to get to coming up in the next one, we're going to do the East and then in the next commercial rate, we're probably going to do the North and the West, even though both of those are not settled fully just yet. Before we do that, it's time to talk about one thing, one of them being wealth front. Investing can be complicated, but whether you're a beginner or you've been investing for years, wealthfront makes it easy. They have the right tools for every portfolio. They're trusted with over $20 billion of assets, and you can get your first $5.5.5.5. thousand dollars managed for free by going to wealthfront.com slash locked on NHL. All you need is $500 to get started. Grow your wealth the easy way and let wealthfront do the work

for you. To get your first $5,000 managed for free for life, go to wealthfront.com slash locked on NHL. That's wealthfront.com slash locked on NHL to start growing your savings one more time for you all, wealthfront.com slash locked on NHL and get started today. All right. Welcome back to this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm your host. Hunter Hodes. I remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow this show is Twitter at L.O. Owners for Penguins. So, Nick, now we get to the East and I've been texting you about this. I've said this on Twitter. You are running through the gauntlet with these two series. That is basically what you're doing. I guess we'll start with the better, I think the better, which one is going to be the better one, Washington, Boston. That is going to be a bloodbath to the highest degree. Tom Wilson is probably going to go at them. You obviously know, Brad Marshawn is going to do his thing too. I'm curious to see how Washington matches up with the supermind of Marshaan Bergeron-Postranuk. I think the Bruins obviously have the edge and goal.

Tuka Rask is one of the best goaltenders in the league. I think he's the best goal in this division. He's obviously well known for turning it on in the playoffs. Charlie McAvoy is having a Norris-level season. Matt Rizzlik is back. Brandon Carlo is back. Nice to see him after, you know, he got his head taken off by Tom Wilson earlier on in the season. But the biggest thing for Boston in this series is that they now have a second line.

You know, imagine giving up only a second round pick to get Taylor fucking Hall. Great job, Buffalo, really. I mean, he now has like eight or nine goals since coming over. You can put him with Craig Cheek and Smith. And, yeah, David Craigchick and Craig Smith finally have some help. They don't have to try to carry Jake DeBrusk, who has like four or five goals this season. Nick Ritchie's been good. Wagner.

Yeah, he's been good as well. You know, I know Washington is, you know, they're deep, but I don't think they're top, it's tough. Both their top sixes are really good. They can put Mantha on either line. They can do Kuznetsov with Oshy. I honestly don't know what the situation is there with Evgeny Kuznetz off right now. Yeah, I mean, they're very hurt. O'Shee is not playing as of tonight.

John Carlson's not playing. He's banged up. I think Ovechkin, though, might come back. When healthy, this is a good Washington team, but I don't want. like their bottom six that much. Outside of John Carlson and Dimitri Orlov, I don't like their defense. And you're trusting a lot in a very inexperienced

goalie in Vitech V-Tenna check to win four out of seven against a really dominant Bruins team is late. I think as of right now, it's going to go seven, but I think I'm taking Boston to beat them. I think this is going to be the best playoff series. There is going to be

fireworks. These teams don't like each other. After what these teams have met each other in the playoffs over the years. A lot of these guys have been on these teams for years. You have the Carlo Wilson incident this season kind of as a flashpoint. These are two of the older teams in the league with coaches who have been around the block. Lobelet's been to a cup final. He's been to a few conference finals. Cassidy's been to a few conference finals and a cup final. This is more or less it. You come back next year. There's no guarantee your old guys don't fall off a cliff next year.

just that's the way hockey aging works. Sometimes guys go away for the summer and that's it. They just don't have what they used to. And these are two of the older teams. And we're going to see. Like you said, Washington is very dinged up. O'She's been hurt. He got pulled from the game against the Flyers last Friday.

Carlson's nursing a knee. Ovechkin's nursing a leg injury. They still have Kuznetsov and Samsonov on the COVID list. You don't know when either of those guys are going to play. And neither of those guys has practiced in a few weeks because they've been on the COVID list. So even if Kuznetsov is good to go by game one, he's not going to be in game shape. Same thing for Samsonoff. And putting a rookie goaltender into a playoff series against a Bruins team that's absolutely cooking right now.

A Bruins team that's won something like seven of its last 10 games with a second line that's finally humming and has helped creep them up into the top 10 in most of your shot metrics and shot shares, their top 10 and everything. And Korsi Fenwick and expected goals. I think Boston wins this series. I just, something about Washington worries me, whether it's you get Wilson suspended for three games

and you know, you throw off your top six or I just trust Rask more. I honestly think in the back of my mind, that's why I trust Rask a lot more than Vannichick. Of course, we've seen rookie goalies play very well. We've seen Binnington. We've seen Cam Ward.

It's possible, just not likely. Yeah, I mean, we also saw it with Mount Murray in 2016. Yeah. He was really good with Pittsburgh. I just, with how Boston is playing and how this was the matchup,

I don't think anyone wanted in the East, I do think you will see Boston come out of this one. I mean, going into the data a little bit from evolving hockey, Boston seventh overall and expected goals for at 53.6 percent, and actual goals for the round the same, Washington down at 13th, that 51.6 expected goals for. But they do have 55% of the actual goals for, which is top 10 league one.

So they have been playing well. Obviously, the results have backed up the process. But, you know, in a seven-game series, you know, it's just... They're going to be up a creek defending the Marchand-Burgeon-Boszor-Nine line and obviously, you know, as well as Taylor Hall. But, you know, that's not to say that Washington can't win this series. I absolutely think they can. It's just, you know, how will Tuka Ross play?

You know, how will your goalie play? You know, is Anthony Mantha going to wake up from, you know, I guess, slumping a little bit ever since he came over, remember he had those four goals and four games. After that, he's just been kind of slumping about it. I know Jacob Verona has lit it up in Detroit. And there was a lot of interesting takes about that trade at the time. And I think there's going to be a lot more interesting ones as we get further down the road as it comes with that trade.

But yeah, I think we both have Boston winning that one. Obviously, I'm going to be doing a lot of preview stuff with the Penguins this week. I'll give it to mainly Nick for this one. But I like this matchup for Pittsburgh overall. Their underlying numbers are a little bit in the middle of the pack. If you look at their expected goals for only 59.4%, but they have 55, almost 56% of the actual goals this season, which is top 10 league-wide as well. If you go to the Islanders, they have 55.5% of the actual goals and 54% of the actual goals. Though, going into the playoffs, this team is very cold.

I'm only 6 wins in their last 14, 15 games. Kyle Palmeri and Travis Zajak have been total flop since coming over for me. New Jersey. I like Pittsburgh to win this one because, I mean, obviously the roster is a lot different than it was in 2019. But just overall, like, what are your thoughts on this one? I'm never going to count Barry Trots out of a playoff series just on principle. So there's an obvious talent disparity here. The high-end players on the Penguins are a lot better than the high-end players on the Islanders. Once you go past Barzell, there's no one really on that Islanders team that scares you, but the thing the Islanders do so well is slow the game down and they don't

give you any room to breathe. They get the puck below the goal line. They're going to bang your defensemen in the corners. They're going to make you fight for every inch of the ice. They're going to be a nuisance on the floor check. They essentially play a playoff style of hockey year round, and it's what makes them so effective. I know I was talking about this with Ethan, my boss at Gotham, the other day. The Islanders are a Brock Nelson breakaway from forcing a game seven against the team that won the cup last year. That Islander's team with less talent

than the team this year gave the lightning all it could handle last year. And this is the best we've seen a Barry Trots team play in terms of Shot Share since early in his time in Nashville, which is kind of like the early days of the advanced shot share statistics.

But Pittsburgh is the more talented team. Mike Sullivan put on a master's stroking coaching. I think they lost the most or second most games of any team in the league to injuries. And they've gotten a lead play from bottom six that doesn't have a ton of marquee names. They got really good play out of guys like Evan Rodriguez this year who I've always been kind of high on, but you don't expect anything positive from Evan Rodriguez aside from being an energy checking line guy. It really will come down to the goaltending. As long as Pittsburgh's

goaltending holds up, I think they'll be fine. It's just going to be an ugly series. Like you said at the intro when we started talking about the East. division, whoever comes out of this division in two rounds is going to be dead because every team in this series plays that heavy physical style. Pittsburgh a little bit less than the other three, but Pittsburgh can bang around. They can play that grindy game if need be. I think I'll probably bet the Islanders just purely on value because you're going to get decent odds on them like plus 200 something in that ballpark and from a value standpoint, it's pretty good. But to win the series, yeah, Pittsburgh should win this series.

I don't have a base prediction just yet. I'm still kind of sorting it around in my head. That's going to be for later this week on the podcast. But, yeah, I just, you know, I've seen some people, some Islander fans on Twitter say, well, you know, 2019 all over again, I'm like, the rosters aren't even comparable. They had Pittsburgh had Jack Johnson and Justin Shultz and Eric Good Branson getting meaningful minutes on their defensive course,

and they have no one near as bad as those state players were on that season. Well, you know, maybe Justin Chultz was not bad that season, but over Mike Matheson right now with how he's played. Cody Cici, of all people, it's really night and day, especially when you look at the forward depth. And honestly, Freddie Goodrow and Nettvonne Rodriguez are interchangeable. They can put them at that 12th forward spot and let them roll with Jeff Carter and Jared McCann. But I'm excited for it.

I always love the chess match between Mike Sullivan and Barry Trots. Curious to see how Trots deploys his lineup against the Sid line. You know, obviously you'll have Pelich and Pollock out there against them, because that's the best shot suppression pair. But what line do you put out there against them? Is it that glorified best fourth line in hockey and quotation marks, as they all like to say? That's a little bit insulting. That is the best fourth line in hockey because every time they're on the ice,

they do dictate the flow of the game. Even though the shot share numbers aren't as pretty as Washington's fourth line, it's a really good fourth line. I know the shot share numbers aren't as pretty, and if they're out there against one of the penguins' top two lines on a defensive zone faceoff, they're going to be at least annoying. You're going to get sticks to the back. You're going to be banged into the boards, and you're going to have to fight for every inch.

So while I do understand your skepticism over the boasting about having the best fourth line in hockey and what that's actually worth, you do have to give credit where it's due. Seizekis, Martin, and Clarebuck, that's a really good fourth line. They're really good at controlling the tempo of the game. And it's not going to make a difference in the grand scheme of things how well a fourth line plays. But it can certainly help. And the Coliseum is going to be 50%. I think I saw 40-something percent for the playoffs.

That arena is loud. It'll be a little bit difficult to play in. The Islander fans, it's the last playoff series maybe ever there. You got to all of the on-ice hockey reason. lean towards the penguins. All of the intangible things that kind of matter in the playoffs, I kind of feel the inclination that the Islanders can do this again because they can beat teams better than them because of the way they play.

I do agree with that. Their system sets it up so that they can beat better teams. I mean, you saw how they beat Philadelphia. They embarrassed Washington also in the bubble last year. But, you know, I will raise you one up to the best fourth line in hockey because Ashton-Rie's Blugger-Tanev will be reunited for that. series and in 140 minutes this year they have 57% of the

expected goals for, six goals for actual on the ice and no goals against. So if they want to roll that line out against the Ashton Rees-Bulgar-Tanav line, be my guest. I actually think that the Penguins 4th line will do more than hold their own against. Especially

I really think people are underrating the presence that Brandon Tannib will have coming back. Not just in the lineup, but overall, just because he fits so well on that line. But, okay, We've kind of rambled on here with that series. We'll do one more division before we go to our last commercial break, and that is the West.

It's getting close to being locked up, but Vegas, they could have done it last night, but they ended up losing a regulation to Colorado. There's still a couple points clear of them, but the Avalanche have a game in hand on them. I think they have two games left. Vegas has one. I think if it's Vegas-St. Louis,

it'll be closer than Colorado, St. Louis. It all depends with the Blues. which Jordan Bennington shows up. Is it the rookie year Jordan Bennington where he was like Matt Murray? Or is it like last year's bubble joining Bennington and for most of this year's Bennington who is all right, you know,

but he's obviously not at that elite level that he was. And then for the Blues lineup overall, I mean, can they keep up with either of these two teams? I mean, they can probably keep up more with Vegas, but Vegas went healthy. They can ice the super line of their own. If they want to put Stone with Patrick, Reddy, Riley Smith, Jonathan Marcoso, William Carlson, they have so many options for their top

six. So if it's Vegas, St. Louis, I'd probably go Vegas and six. If it's Colorado, St. Louis, I'm going Colorado in five. Yeah, no. St. Louis, they won their cup. They're an older team. They lost a lot of the guys who were important to that team. You swap out Petrangelo, who hasn't been good for Vegas, to be fair.

He has not been good. You drop in Tori Krug, you expect Tori Krug to take a bulk of that responsibility, playing a big role on both your special teams. St. Louis is a fine hockey team, but let's be realistic. Vegas, Colorado, or they are with Carolina, Tampa, and you say Toronto, they're their own tier. Everybody else is kind of fighting for the right to get into that mix and maybe give one of those teams a series. I just hope we don't get any shenanigans or funny business, and we may be. miss out on Vegas, Colorado for a second straight year. If we lose, if we get screwed again out of that because a team like, you know, the stars last year wants to jip us out of good hockey, I mean,

very mad. I mean, very, very mad because I think those are the two best teams and I would like to see them play a best of seven series. Best of nine, um, if you ask me, but I don't think there will be any funny business with whoever plays St. Louis. I like the blues. I think they're a solid team. But is Teresenko even, is he healthy for this series? Because he's just been banged up forever. So I honestly don't even know if he's playing in this. He, I remember talking to someone about this the other day because he was dealing with the hip. He came back from the hip. It didn't really, he didn't really catch right. The blue think he's going to be able to play, but they're not positive he's going to be able to play by the start of the series.

That's from the Yahoo Fantasy app that I just opened for the first time in three weeks because I didn't make the playoffs. So moving on to talk a little bit about this series more. Yeah, Blue's big talent gap between them in Vegas. Vegas plays that fast, overwhelming style. Alex Petrangelo Revene series. Yeah. I mean, Petrangelo has been pretty bad, to be quite honest in Vegas. His shots here at numbers aren't great. They really should. have given them that contract. They would have been better off keeping Nate Schmidt instead of trading him to Vancouver in the offseason. But I like Vegas a lot. I've been on the Vegas train for three years now saying they were the best team. I think they missed their window. I think

their best iteration was probably last year's team. But they should handle St. Louis, no problem. I would be genuinely shocked. More so than Columbus beating Tampa, what was that, two years ago in the first round, more shocked than that. And that's considered one of the biggest upsets in this generation for the semi-cup playoffs. So, yeah, I would be pretty stunned, too. Like you said, I do want to see Colorado, Vegas. And, you know, speaking of Colorado, it's looking like right now they'll get Minnesota. I think Minnesota can give either of these two teams a huge fight.

I think more so Vegas, Minnesota beat Vegas five times in a row this season. It all depends, though, you know, is Cam Talbot going to be good? How much is Caprio Capricsoff going to do? he's obviously the slam dunk rookie of the year winner if you're not voting for Kapril Kaprisov honestly just turn over your ballot and just stop Karate the sport to be honest with you

I know Jason Robertson's also been really good but it's Kapriqaacov and everyone else Parisei obviously is still there Ryan Souter is playing some good hockey Wild have always been a good defensive team that's thing their shot suppression numbers have been great

for the last few years I mean Matt Dumba he's great. Jared Spurgeon is still really good. I know I'm probably. Jonas Brodine, I totally forget. Jonas Brodine, he's always one of the more underrated defensemen in the league. He's up there now.

I mean, a lot of the guys you're thinking of that we identify as being the key contributors on the wild, they're just old now. Yeah. They're not as good as they used to be, but they're still not bad. They got really good play from Joel Erickson X, the center who's been really good for them.

They've gotten good production out of that line. When they stapled Caprizov to Zuccarello's hip about midway through the season, their shot share numbers were horrendous. They were in like the low 40s, but they were outperforming the production counting stats-wise. They were still scoring goals in spite of the fact they weren't driving play in the slightest bit. I mean, I just pulled them up on daily face-off. And you're looking at Ryan Hartman, centering Caprizov and Zucorello, and that's fine.

but they're going to get caved in shot suppression-wise, and it's really going to come down to the goaltending, like you said. Minnesota has really played streaky hockey this year. When they've been right, like you said, they did beat Vegas five times in a row during the regular season. But if we see Minnesota, the iteration of Minnesota that just gets enough goaltending, and you have a special player like Caprizo doing flashy things and setting a tempo, and even though the shot share numbers won't be there,

you can survive in a playoff series against a better team without the shot share numbers being there. And that's one of the things I think it's really important we throw in here at some point is we like the shot share numbers for the regular season. When we talk about expected goals, Corsi Fenwick, because they're over the course of a 56, usually an 82 game sample size. And a seven-game series, you can have enough goaltending to steal a series, even if you are giving up 63%

60% of the shot share of whether it's course you found like expected goals in a playoff series it's only seven games weird things can happen in only seven games small samples are your enemy yes especially and you saw those best of five series last year yeah in the bubble i mean montreal beat pittsburg you know a lot of that was because carrie price went back to 2015 and decided hey i'm going to be god again and he was exactly that i mean they had some good numbers but for the first two and a half to three games of that series out of the four games

Pittsburgh dominated them but you know it didn't matter because good goal-tending is the big one you know it's the most volatile position in hockey and you know if cam talbot is lighting it up against Colorado I mean that's all it can take sometimes remember thatcher demko against Vegas will them do seven games and they only lost what one or two nothing in game seven I mean Vegas was throwing the kitchen sink at Vancouver last year in the return to play and Dr. Dempko was just doing everything he can't almost look like Connor Hellebuck

willing the Jets to the playoffs. But if Colorado plays them, I would probably have the abs in 6. I think if it's Vegas, it's 6 to 7. I think Minnesota can really give them quite a good fight. You know, the wild

aren't there yet. They're not ready for this spotlight of being a contender yet, but they make some good additions this summer to help Capri Sov out. maybe move some of those bad contracts out. That's going to be a scary team moving forward. And I really like what Billy Garon is doing there. I like what Deanna Vason is doing there with Minnesota.

I'm excited to watch that series. And yes, everyone, give us Colorado Vegas in the second round, best of nine, winner take all. And then, you know, the winner of that can go on to the Stanley Cup finals. Do you have any other thoughts on that before the last series, last two series? But if we get our Colorado Vegas series, we're going to get probably the best playoff series, talent-wise, and the style of hockey play-wise, maybe in five years, maybe in six years. Actually, no, that's a lie. In about three or four years, the year Nashville met Winnipeg in the second round, the year that Nashville won the President's Trophy and Winnipeg won the series, it went seven games. I think four of them went to overtime. One of the great series of the last decade, that's the kind of, hockey we can expect from a Colorado

Vegas series. I really hope we get it and I really, really cannot wait to see it. Fingers crossed. Yes. I mean you can match Superline for Superline whether it's Colorado's with Landis Gogh McGinnon Ranton and then Vegas they can

like I said they could pull out Mark Stone Max Patcheretti, Riley Smith William Wilson. With Stevenson. Yeah. Chammer Stevenson's been awesome. Shea Feudor against Cal McCarr. I mean, you have Gerard obviously there. I know Petrangelo hasn't been that good, but in a playoff series, he can potentially turn it up whenever. And then goalie-wise, if Colorado is healthy there,

Grubauer, and then if they want to start Lennar or Flurry, I'm guessing it's going to be Mark Andre Fleury with the season that he is having. He should be getting a lot of Vesna consideration. But also, like I said, they can go to Robin Lennar, and it wouldn't surprise me at all. He's also been really good as well. But we still have the North Division to get to before we call this an episode. But before we do that, it's time to talk about a couple of things, one of them being rockado.com. It's a family business serving auto parts online for 20 years. You can go to rock auto.com shop for auto and body parts from hundreds of manufacturers.

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Your online sports book experts with a promo code locked on. But, okay, we're back here on this Tuesday episode of the Lockedon Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguin. So, two more series to go, Nick. It looks like we will be getting if Winnipeg does their job tonight,

Toronto, Montreal for the first time in four decades, I believe, is what it is now. It is a series where I want to hear all the takes, whether it's the Montreal media, more so the Toronto media, especially with Myrtle up there with the athletic, and, you know, seeing what the weirdo Damien Cox has to say on Twitter and a whole bunch of other Leafs media, just because if they lose that series to Montreal, inject those takes into my veins. But I think Toronto should be able to win that. I mean, if you look at the data, either you go to Moneypuck or Evolving Hockey or Micah's page.

Toronto has 58.9% of actual goals this year at 5B5, 55.7% of the expected goals that comes from MoneyPuck. Their course is around 51%. Their unblock shot attempts, or Fenwick, is 51.6%. They've been on, they have 129 goals for it and 90 goals against. Montreal's numbers are really not that good. I mean, this all really depends on carry price. being Carrie Price from 2015. I just don't really like Montreal this year, man.

I think this is a series that Toronto could win in five if they have their A game. But obviously, the biggest question is who starts in goal? Do you trust Jack Campbell to lead the way? Or do you put in Frederick Anderson, who has been banged up virtually this entire season? Because the Maple Leafs have the top six that Montreal does not have. They have the depth. Their defense is still not bad. Obviously, Muzin is not the player that he once was.

but he's still good. Morgan Riley, obviously really good. I can't wait to see Cole Cofield in the playoffs as well. But I don't know. This just screams like Toronto should beat them badly, but you never know with Montreal,

who's a very defensive first team, and they might be getting back Brendan Gallagher, who always has very strong numbers. Yeah, I have watched a lot of Montreal in Toronto this year. I've thoroughly enjoyed the North Division from a spectator perspective as an analyst's perspective of really trying to unpack what's different about that division. And like you said, Toronto is obviously a more talented team. I think I'm inclined to say they're going to start Jack Campbell just, they've handled the goalie situation very weird this year.

I know the few times I've popped in and listened to TSN radio during the season. and there's kind of been an undercurrent that Freddie Anderson told them he wasn't good enough to play, but if need be, I could play. So they gave him a lot of time to try and catch here. And we've seen it. Very talented leaves teams have been derailed in the playoffs because Freddie Anderson couldn't give them a single save in a close game. And if any team is inclined to exploit suspect goaltending, it might be Montreal. for the exact reason you mentioned because they play such low event games where they're just trying to not let a lot of things happen.

Like if you get 55 total shots on goal in a Montreal game, that's kind of on the higher end of things. Usually you're looking something a little bit lower in the mid-30s per team, something in that ballpark. So Montreal can do, if Montreal can do what the Islanders need to do to the penguins where they just slow down the pace of the game, they have the active defenseman taking the puck out of trouble, that kind of thing. Montreal can certainly do this. During the regular season, Toronto did win seven of the nine head-to-head matchups. Toronto's a more talented team, but the most talented team doesn't always win in the playoffs. Yes, I kind of am making a devil's advocate argument for the Canadians.

I've gotten some enjoyment out of watching them. Caulfield's been very exciting since he came up. He had a really good season at Wisconsin. He's gotten, I think, two overtime game winning goals in his time, but they have him on the fourth line because Montreal has a bunch of B-minus forwards. There's no one who scares you, really. I mean, I like Thomas Tatar. He's pretty good.

I like Kota Kemi. He's okay. Suzuki's been good in spurts. There's a lot of talent on Montreal's team, but there's no one on Montreal who's going to take over a game. And Montreal's special teams have been kind of bad now for a little while. They really have had a hard time scoring on the power play. And against a team like Toronto,

where you're probably going to have a hard time scoring five on five, you need to be able to score on your power play. If you're not scoring on your power play in situations where you're going to have a hard time scoring at five on five, you're not winning the series because you're just not going to score enough, period. Yeah, no, I completely agree with that. And just, you know, ever since they made the coaching change, the Canadians, that is, they just haven't really improved that much as a season is going on. I mean, the only reason they are in the playoffs is because the North Division is so bad this year and all the other teams.

I mean, you know, obviously I feel bad for the Canucks. I mean, if they didn't have that monstrosity of a COVID outbreak, I mean, they could have been challenging for that final playoff spot. That was definitely a big old takes exposed moment for me. I had Vancouver, I think, in a top three spot before the season. Couldn't have been more wrong about them, especially when it came to their go-tending. And just, you know, obviously, like I said, I feel really bad with what they went through with COVID. But I just, you know, with how Toronto can match up against them, I mean, obviously Matthews has been incredible this year.

Marner, Neelander, Tavares on his own line. It really just, it doesn't compare. at all. I like Jeff Petrie with the Habs. I think he's had another strong season. Shea Weber. The decline is there. I mean, he's obviously not what he used to be. You said Kakiami is good. Suzuki has been nice. Josh Anderson. Decent when he's been in the lineup, but he's been dinged off. Yeah, I think he missed last night's game against Edmonton. And, you know, speaking of Edmonton, I guess we'll get into that series.

But, you know, I would take Toronto in about five, five or six in that series against Montreal. though I'm pretty sure Leif's Twitter would burn to the ground if they do lose to the Canadians when they are just not that good. Part of me also kind of wants to see that. Oh, it'd be very fun. Making fun of the Leifes is one of the few things that can unite a lot of people in the hockey spheres of the internet. Yes, absolutely, which is how they, whether it's them against Boston or them against whoever in the playoffs. How they lost to Columbus last season was hilarious. I'll never get over to how they dominated them, and Columbus still won the series.

You know, as for this Edmonton, Winnipeg, very likely series, I don't see a way Winnipeg wins this unless two things happen. Hallibach. Yeah. One of how obviously is Connor Hellebuck, who has carried them the last two seasons. Second one is getting Nikola Eilers back. He has been really banged up this season, but he is their best player, I think. And when he's on, he can take over a game in an instant.

I love, I always say I love seeing Mark Shifley play. Blake Wheeler He's awesome too I remember there was some injury concern with Shifley Right yeah I believe he was dead being up dinged up I think he's I mean I know he's back now Their defense though

Nick I don't really know what to look I just when I look at Winnipeg's defense It honestly just makes me cringe because It's a bunch of spare parts Yeah let's be honest here It's a bunch of defensemen that other team didn't want Or younger guys who haven't proven them themselves yet.

Billy Hanola got in the game last night. He's been good when he's played, but Paul Maurice, for whatever reason, has refused to play him. Logan Stanley doesn't really give you a lot aside from size. Forborth is another big defenseman. I was talking about this with Jayfresh when he was on my show a couple of weeks ago. The Jets have their defensemen do nothing in the offensive zone because they don't want them coming down because Maurice understands that if these guys get caught even the slightest bit up

the ice, we're losing a foot race, and it's going to. going to be an odd man rush going the other way every time. And it's given Winnipeg's forward to really hard time this year because you're essentially playing three on five in the offensive zone every single time. And you're not taking a lot of high, low plays, you're not getting those second chance opportunities off of shots from the point. And you're just not playing efficient hockey. And I understand they're playing this style to reduce risk. But the underlying numbers are very ugly for Winnipeg. And I know Paul Maurice has been one of the few coaches who publicly is like, well, those are the public numbers, our numbers that we have, our proprietary

data, we don't look as bad as what the public thinks we are. And while that may be true, I know the proprietary numbers are a bit more sensitive, the shot tracking is a bit more accurate. If you're getting out chanced and you're giving up more good chances over the course of an entire season, you're going to lose more often than not, unless you have a superhuman goalie, which hell of buck has been for two years now. I've said it before when we were talking about Nashville. Winnipeg must their window. The 2018 Jets probably were the best iteration they were going to have.

That team was so good. They've tried to prolong their window. They made the bold choice. They traded Linae for Pierre-Luc Dubois, who's going through kind of a lull right now. He doesn't have a point in his last 10 or 11 games. I was reading Moritz column in the Athletic this morning.

Winnipeg just doesn't scare you. Edmontons handled them when they've played in the regular season. Edmonton won seven of of nine. Edmonton plays a style. that gives Winnipeg fits because they're so fast in transition. If your defensemen are scared, if your coach is so scared of letting your defensemen come up in the zone in the offensive zone that you don't let them at all, that tells you he doesn't trust their foot speed.

And against a team like Edmonton, whose top six has a lot of foot speed, it's not a surprise Edmonton's won, seven of nine. Yeah. And I mean, you look at Winnipeg's lineup, and I love their top line of Connor Schifley-Willer. It's one of the better top lines in hockey. but after that, it is a steep declining. Nick, you have people like, I mean, Mason Appleton in their bottom six. He's...

Mason Appleton's been decent in games I've watched this year. Like I said, I've watched a lot of North Division. Mason Appleton's been okay. They've got... Their bottom six won't kill you. It's just not going to give you any upside at all. And like I said before, they're playing three on five in the offensive zone every single time. So for those bottom two lines, it's just a matter of cycling.

the puck in the offensive zone for 30 seconds to let the guys who just came off catch a breath and then come back out. The top six has to do all their scoring. If the top six isn't scoring, the Jets have no chance of winning at all. Yeah, and that'll allow, you know, Andrew Cop right now is on their second line. Once Eilers comes back, he'll go down the lineup. I mean, they have Nate Thompson down there. I like Adam Lowry. He's good, yeah. And you got Polly Walnuts still? Yeah, Paul Stanaston, of course, still there. I mean, I like Dylan DeMello on their defense, but, you know, is he a top-parrying defenseman, no. I like Josh Morrissey.

Neil Pionk, I think, is really underrated. I mean, he definitely took a huge step after he left the Rangers. And then, obviously, Connor Halebuck, his resume speaks for itself with these last couple of years. Then you get to Edmonton. Obviously, they have the best player in the world. Yes, I understand this is a Pittsburgh Penguins podcast, but no, I'm not going to advocate Cindy Crosby for the Hart Trophy. I talked about this on my Monday episode.

If you think Cindy Crosby should get the Hart Trophy over someone who has 100 101 points in 54, 555 games, you are brain dead. I think that is basically how I will describe you. You just really don't know what you're talking about. It's not even close. If this were Cindy Crosby that had 101 points in 54 games, you all would be just saying everything that Oilers fans are saying right now. So I really don't understand it.

But if you go look at what third lines are, I mean, it's funny with Edmondson because Leon Dreisle is not even having as good of a season as he was last year, and McDavid is still kicking out. I mean, he's also playing with Dominic Cahoon, who, yes, is not a bad player, and Jesse Pol Jarvie, who is also not bad either,

but then that allows Drysider to play with Yamoto, who I don't really think has been that good this year. Ryan Nugent Hopkins, he's still a good player. Their depth is not that good, but as long as you have McDavid and Drysidal there as your one-two punch, you're going to win a lot of games. On defense, I mean, I like Darnell Nurse,

Tyson Barry is all right. For some reason, they want to get Adam Larsen a four-year term for his next contract. Okay. I mean, that doesn't really... They got to get Evan Bouchard in the mix who they drafted a few years ago. He's played, I think, like 15-ish games this year.

He's been an injury substitute. Ethan Bear has been okay in spurts this year. Like I said, I've watched a lot of the North Division. Edmonton is going to play McDavid and Drysiddle, probably 27, 28 minutes a night, total, including special teams. And if it comes down to it, Edmonton has as good a six on five unit

trying to chase a goal as anyone in the league because they'll throw McDavid Drysidle, Nugent Hopkins would nurse up top, and they'll have someone one of their bigger bodies parked themselves in front of the net. And you still got guys who, your old friend James Neal floating around, you can occasionally rip a good snapshot

from a sharp angle. Edmonton probably can't beat Toronto in the second round should they win this first round series. But I'd be very, very surprised. I think Edmonton has shown in the regular season, the key to beating Winnipeg is just controlling transition. And I have no reason to believe Winnipeg is suddenly figured it out after losing seven out of nine over the course of three months.

I mean, they've had three and a half months to kind of figure out how to play better against Edmonton, and they still haven't done it. Yeah, exactly. And I think I would take Edmonton in five or six here. it would probably go seven if Connor Hellebuck, you know, just stands on his head. I just, I think Edmonton is the better team here, especially top six wise. They have the best player not only in the series, but on the planet. They actually have two of the top ten best players in the world in this series.

And Winnipeg does not, even though I do really like their top line. And I really hope Nicolai Eilers is ready. And, you know, Nick, I do want to see McDavid Matthews in the second round. Exactly. Obviously, Toronto would probably win it just because they're deeper than them. But, I mean, come on. I want to see if Connor McDavid can really will his team to beating Matthews and all that. And just for the takes.

I mean, that series would produce a whole lot of hot takes. I mean, maybe you'll have the Toronto media saying Austin Matthews deserves the harder is that he's a better player than Connor McDavid, which would just be ludicrous. But it's still a series. You know, I'll one up you there. If we don't get both Vegas, Colorado and Edmonton, Toronto in the second round, just honestly just cancel the rest of these playoffs. I'll go one more. Pittsburgh, Boston would be a lot of fun as well.

That'd be a good series, yeah. I'm excited, man. I mean, yes, the NHL is the only league in the world that's going to have a regular season game, be the appetizer for a Saturday night primetime game, but I can't wait for Saturday. It's going to be very fun. Yeah, exactly. You know, obviously tonight, and actually there is someone just is tweeting this breaking.

Apparently John Shannon said it looks like the North playoffs are going to be starting. a bit later than the United States playoffs. I think he just tweeted out. So they're going to be starting as early as the 19th. So if I look at my calendar right, that is next Wednesday. So the United States playoffs start this weekend. Canada goes next Wednesday. They shot honestly up until Monday, Tuesday.

No one really gives a shit about these calendar of Vancouver games. I understand they want them to play it. But yeah, I mean, these are going to be a lot of fun for the Stanley Cup playoffs. I understand it's kind of annoying to watch the same teams go at it for 15, 16 times in the season. But there are some really good matchups here that are coming in. And I think the ones that we previewed, even though they're not final yet, in the West and the North, I think those are probably going to be the matchups. You see, especially in the North, I don't really think Montreal is going to leapfrog Winnipeg.

I think Winnipeg should be able to win tonight against Vancouver. But if not, you know, I think it basically remains the same that Toronto would be Winnipeg. And I think Edmonton would be Montreal, if that does happen. And then we already talked about the West as well. Nick, if you have any other thoughts on the playoffs or anything Rangers related with what they've gone through the last week and you can put them here. All right, so really, really quick.

For people who aren't as up on the Rangers news, it really does seem like James Dolan kind of went off, went off the reservation a little bit, issued that public relation statement. The general manager and the president were letting other teams around the league know that wasn't us, that was our owner. Don't blame us if the league office. comes down, blah, blah, blah.

I really do think Doling kind of fired them just at a pure disloyalty. I don't really buy the whole rebuild was taking too long thing. Right now, it seems to be the main discourse around the Rangers is, are they going to back up the truck to try and trade for Eichol? I don't know. I really don't think you got to, you got to check his neck out. If your doctors think his neck is fine and you can have him not deal with any lingering effects from a neck surgery, Yeah, sure. Go trade for Jack Eichael.

He's one of the 10 best centers in the entire league when he's right. I wouldn't complain at all. Other than that, I'm very much looking forward to the playoffs. You can check out some of my work at Gotham. S.N. is the Twitter handle. Gotham Sports Network is the full web address. And I am the host of the Upper Bowl GM podcast, which Hunter will be on tomorrow. We're going to talk more specifically about the Penguins.

I had an episode about the Washington Capitals. An episode about the Winnipeg Jets will be up. an episode about the New York Islanders are going to be up soon. I'm trying to line up more. I've got a lot of guests for most of the playoff teams. I'm missing a few. Other than that, man, thank you for having me. This is always fun.

And I don't even have a rooting stake in the playoffs. I guess Edmonton, I'd like to see McDavid win a cup if I had to pick someone who I'd like to see when. I'll say I'd like Edmonton to win, but that's not going to happen. It probably won't. You know, they obviously have to go through Toronto. And, you know, there's obviously a small chance to Connor Hellebock could put us to that but I doubt it but yeah man thank you so much for coming on to preview all these

matchups on tomorrow I'm gonna have Jesse Marshall on from the athletic to do a full Penguins Islanders preview before doing a crossover with the locked on Islanders Gilmar to just get his take on the Islanders and you know pick his brain to see if he thinks that the Islanders can do they did in 2019 but probably not have a sweep against the Penguins with how they're playing and how the lineup is just miles better than it was that year But again, thank you all so much for listening to this one, and I will talk to you all on the other side.