Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - So some big trades were made by the Penguins, eh?

Episode Date: July 19, 2022

It was a busy weekend for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Hunter first goes into the Jeff Petry trade and gives his thoughts on that move (for those that didn't watch the video on the YouTube page. He goes into how Petry is still an outstanding player and how he did this past season on a terrible Montreal team. He looks at how he's an upgrade over both Matheson and Marino on the second pairing, plus who this will help the most on the Penguins. After that, he gives a small scoop on Petry's original offer (likely around the time of the NHL Draft) and how the Penguins HAD TO include Matheson in the deal. Following that, he goes into the Ty Smith for John Marino deal and looks at what kind of player that the Penguins are getting in Smith. Is he someone who loves the puck on his stick? How can his defensive game improve next season? Is he the next defenseman for Todd Reirden to do serious work with? Hunter gives a prediction about Smith being in the opening night lineup before finishing the show focusing on Ron Hextall and how there's no chance he's done yet. All that, plus much more on this episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello, happy Monday. It's the final full week of episodes for this podcast before it goes into full offseason mode. I know I had the video on Saturday that went into the trades a little bit, about 12-minute video. We're going to dive more into that today. That video on the YouTube page is the most viewed video in the page's history. The channel has also had over 70 new subscribers in 48 hours. I can't thank everyone enough for just continuing to support. this show and, you know, for all the new people, welcome. You know, I do this every day during

the season and three days a week, starting next week when it's just, you know, the free agency is basically calming down, I think at this point. So, you know, for today's episode, we're going to dive more into the two moves that the Penguins made over the weekend. Also get into why Ron Hextall's not close to done. And a couple other things for this episode, including Kasperi Kappen and filing for salary arbitration. I'll get into that. I'll share my thoughts on that. So that's all coming up right after this drop.

You're Locked on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked On Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. We're going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. You can also follow the shows, Twitter, at L.O.

for being this episode is brought to you by Ben Online as you covered this season with more props on than lines than ever before. That has been online where the game starts. I'm fresh off just watching my beloved one, Soto, win the home run derby. Yeah, is there a chance that he may not be here in a couple weeks? Sure.

Do I really care right now? Absolutely not. And I'm feeling probably the happiest I've been as a Nationals fan. This year I know most of the listeners here are probably Pirates fans, but you know, at least I can say that, you know, I've seen the Nationals win the World Series with Juan Soto, and I know there's probably some dark times ahead,

but that was great to see him win the derby tonight. I always love watching Home Run Derby. But, you know, let's get into the big acquisitions from this weekend. So Ron Hextall, you know, went wheeling and dealing. You know, he made some bold moves. You know, I think the biggest thing, you know, that, you know, for what Hextall showed me was that, you know, he was not happy with the Blue Line after that series against the Rangers,

I think especially because, you know, Three straight games. Three game to one lead. You have the leads in elimination games. A couple of them multi-goal leads, and you blow it. Game five against the Rangers at Madison Square Garden. You have them basically dine with 25, 26 minutes left. I know Sid gets hurt, but you let them right back into the game.

40 minutes left. In game six in Pittsburgh, you're up to nothing. Boom, let them back into the game. Game seven, multiple times. You're up at least one goal. You lose an overtime. And, you know, sure, did you get bad goaltending in that. series, yes, but I just don't think Hextall was happy with how his defense been played.

And, you know, that's, I think the main reason why you saw some changes on the back end. I got to say, I did not think Mike Matheson was going to get traded this offseason. When I saw him going back in that trade, I was stunned. He had one heck of a year for the penguins. You know, he's probably, he was their second best defenseman on the team. but, you know, when you are getting someone like Jeff Petrie who, yeah, is a little bit older, yeah, is more expensive, but, you know, he's a better player than Matheson. I've been seeing this take on social media, you know, the Penguin subreddit, and yes,

people still do go on Reddit. I've been seeing this take that, you know, they're basically the same player and Mathisans is maybe a bit better. I don't know where that is coming from. You look at the metrics for Petrie this past year on a bad Montreal team. He was the better player. Heck, he had 21 points in his final 30 games with Marty St. Louis. That was on the worst team in hockey.

He's in the 97th percentile for finishing among defensemen. Only 3% of defensemen are better than him with regards to that. He is an offensive machine. And, you know, think about this. He's going to be playing probably a lot of minutes with Afghani Malkin. That is going to be a huge help for, you know, someone, you know, who can get him the puck, you know, pretty quickly. and, you know, someone who can also just create chances for him so that he can bury some rebounds in or, you know, just, you know, someone who can create zone entries, excuse me, if Malkin's not able to

and then just give him the puck. You know, having him on that second pair for Malkin is going to be massive. So, you know, Petrie, you know, he is still a very good player. You know, this is someone who was getting, you know, Norris Trophy Love last season. You know, before this year when he was below 50% in shot attempts for the first time since 2014-15, last year with Montreal, when they went to the Stanley Cup final, when he was on the ice, the Canadians had 56% of the shot attempts, 52% of the actual goals, 54% of the expected goals, 56% of the scoring chances, 54% of the high danger chances.

You know, and he was, you know, still straight up in his mid-30s. This year, you know, I kind of blame that to him being on a bad team, But this is still a very good defenseman. And you look at the right side, Tang, then Petrie, then Jan Ruta. I mean, that's probably arguably the best right side in the Metropolitan Division. I would actually ask people what right side of a defensive core is better than that one that the Penguins have. I would love to know from people which one is better. You know, the left side, obviously there's a little bit of question marks there.

But man, Petrie is, he is legit. I am okay with the Penguins getting out of Matheson's long term. I believe they still had, I want to say four, I believe it's 40 years at $4.875 million. I think when he was traded here, you know, he had six years left. And, you know, I wish Mike the best of luck. He wasn't that good his first year. but this past year, you know, really turned it on, hit double-digit goals, I think, for the first time in its career, his underlines were really good.

But, you know, the biggest thing with Matheson for me is, you know, can he repeat this in Montreal? He's going to be on a much worse team. You know, he's not going to have Todd Reard in there to really, you know, help him further his development long. I know he's going to have Marty St. Louis, who, you know, I think he's going to become a really good coach in the NH. But, you know, can he do this in an elevated role? because I don't think Matheson is going to be getting bottom pairing minutes for the Canadians next year. They're going to probably play him on the second pairing or potentially the top pairing. I would not be surprised if he did play on the top pair.

And from what I was told about the trade, I spoke to someone who is close with the team. And you all know me. I don't, you know, I poke around a little bit. I find out stuff. Sometimes, you know, other times I'm not able to find some stuff out, but this was, I was able to confirm for you. I have a couple scoops here. You know, Matheson had to be in this trade if the penguins were going to get Petrie. I was also told that the original offer for Petrie was going to be Marcus Pedersen and Teddy Bluger. You know, the Penguins, I think they would have rather traded Pedersen than Matheson. I think they wanted all three of Latang, Matheson, and Peterson. on offense for their defenseman next season. And then you can have, you know, Jan Ruda, Azure State Home guy, Brian Dumlin, you know, Ty Smith,

if he's in the lineup, P.O. Joseph, you know, some of those guys can maybe be, you know, your stay-at-home guys, even though Ty Smith is probably an offensive guy, so that probably really wouldn't work. And then for Bluger, you know, it sounds like to me, you know, by poking around a little bit, the organization is not that high on me. He only has one year left on his contract. Right now, I don't think he's going to be.

going to be back after this coming season. But that was what I was told the original offer was for Petrie. It was declined the penguins had to, you know, make it work in another area. And, you know, to get a good player, you've got to give up a pretty good piece. And the Penguins are able to do that. And I think this trade is going to pay huge dividends for the Penguins this year. You know, again, you know, going back to my first point about how Hextall was not happy with the defensive corps, you know, say, let's go back to the Game 7 here again.

the Rangers, right? So less than six minutes to go, you're defending a three-two lead. Say it's Jeff Petrie along that wall right there with Marcus Peders and Not John Reno. Is he going to pass the puck basically to the middle of the ice slash the slot area and basically give it to Mika Zabedajad on a platter? No, he's not. He's going to rip that sucker right around the boards. And I think someone like Ben Lovejoy, if he were still with the Penguins, he would have done that too. You know, that was just a really, I still can't get over how awful that play was from Marino. I'll say it until the day I die. The Pedersen helmet thing was definitely bad, but, you know, Marino's thing was worse to me.

And I do not think Petrie makes that mistake. And I'll say this, you know, he also, you know, he makes them a bit heavier on the back end, gives them more signs. People do not want to hear this, but it's accurate. The penguins, they were a bit soft in the defensive zone last season. They weren't that good in front of their net. They needed to get bigger and add more size to the back end. I love using analytics.

I use them every time when I evaluate a player that comes to this team, when I'm doing season reviews and all that. But that said, you can't ignore the size and the heavy part of a defensive board. Penguins needed to get heavier, needed more size, and I think they did that with both moves. especially this Petrie won. And I'm really excited to see him play here in Pittsburgh. The three years times 6.25 does not concern me in the slightest.

That basically it goes until Sidney Crosby's contract is up at that point. Malkin only has one year left on his contract. I think Petrie will probably just either he'll retire at that point or he'll potentially just walk. So, you know, I am not concerned about that. Excuse me. In the slightest. So, you know, I'm a really big fan of that trade. I'll be diving a little more into Ty Smith coming up here in this next segment.

But, you know, I just, I can't say good enough things about that job. I was definitely caught off guard when they did trade for him. And, you know, maybe I was overvaluing Matheson for a little bit. But, you know, I do think the penguins are going to come out as the winners of this deal, in my opinion. So coming up here in this next segment, I'm going to get into a little more about Ty Smith's game and what he can. provide for the penguins going forward. But before I get to that, bet online.net is your number one source for all of your betting needs and sports info.

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the game starts. All right, I'm back here on this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I am your host, Honor Hodes. You know to follow me on Twitter. Hunter Hodes, follow the shows, Twitter, at L.O.N.R.S. Penguins, and, of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen of the day. You know, the Penguins, it couldn't have made this trade without the first one, which was, of course, John Marino to the New Jersey Devils for Ty Smith and a pick.

Marino spoke to the media today in New Jersey. And he said, you know, he basically was expecting a trade because he just been, you know, hearing the rumors for so long. And, you know, I do like Marino. I think he was a very steady presence in his own end. The biggest thing, and I said it on my Saturday video, the offense just never came for him. Two goals in his final 118 games.

He only had one goal last year. I mean, that's just, that's not good enough, you know. He had a great rookie year. And I think everyone, you know, including myself, we were hoping that he was going to build on that. But, you know, he just took a step back. And I think the reality also is that this management group, Ron Hexton, Brian Burke, you know, Chris Pryor and all them, they did not hold Marino in the same stratosphere that Jim Rutherford did. Rutherford loved Marino.

He would always, you know, every time he would speak to the media, you know, either be on video or you're just reading it, you can just picture his eyes just growing so big when he was talking about him just because of how much he was infatuated by him. and, you know, he got him for a steal from the Oilers, you know, if it weren't for getting Reno, Eric Branson would have been on that, on the team. A couple of seasons ago, I remember they had to move him before the season just because he had such a great preseason and training camp. But, you know, I guess when the new management come in, they just, they didn't see what the last regime saw. And I think that that's part of the reason why the Penguins shipped him out.

He still has five more years left at 4.4 million per. the Penguins enter Ty Smith, someone who, you know, he had a really good rookie season for the Devils. I think I really do think people forget about that. I'm loading up his stats here on National Statric. You know, he was very good for the Devils during the year, especially in the offensive zone. You know, he played in 48 games that season. When he was on ice, the Devils had 53% shot attempts per 60, close to 5.5. hundred in goals, but only 45% of those, about 50% of the expected goals, 52% of the scoring

chances, about 50, 15 high danger chances and then high danger goals for only 41% of those, but I also chalk some of that up to the devil is just not being good. But, you know, definitely some good numbers there. But then, you know, you could fast forward to this season, only 49% of the shot of Tim's for the New Jersey when he was on the ice. 40% of the actual goals, 48% of the expected goals, 49% of the scoring chances. you know, only 26 high danger goals for, 34 high danger goals against.

A lot of those numbers just, you know, took a huge dip. And I think a big, a good part of that is due to the devil's coaching staff, just really not doing a good enough job with him. Lindy Ruff is, you know, he's not a good coach. And he also runs a completely different system than what Mike Solomon does. His is not as, you know, up-tempo, fast-paced, speed scale as Sullivan's. And, you know, I think that kind of systems, the suit Smith's game a lot more.

And I think there's a really good chance that you are going to see this player flourish in this system. He's definitely, I guess, a little bit of a project. He's still really youngs on his ELC. I've been seeing people say that he might get sent down. And yeah, he is waiver exempt right now. Yeah, he can, I believe he needs 36 more games to have to clear waivers to be sent down to the minor league.

So, yes, they could send him down to Woke's very. but I personally think he's just going to make the team out of camp. And, you know, maybe it's a little foolish for me to say that right now because there's still two months to go. But, you know, I do think he has enough talent. And, you know, he's going to do a lot of work with Reardon and all those guys to, you know, make the team out of camp. I see him potentially playing with either Jan Ruda on the third pairing or Tahr Roodle,

but probably I would say Jan Ruda. And again, you know, I just mentioned Tar Reardon. you know, I think he's really going to work his magic again here. You know, remember when Matheson came over from Florida, his transition stats weren't that good. He was just a mess in the defensive zone. We all know how gifted he was with the puck, but it was just a lot of the other parts of his game were just so terrible. Your Honor numbers were not that good. And then you saw the work that Reardon did with Mathis in the last two years.

I really do think we might see the same, you know, with this player. And, you know, with Smith, you know, the Penguins, they don't have a young defensive. defensemen like this in their system. I don't think enough people realize that. You know, people will say whatever, but, you know, he is five times the prospect slash player that P.O. Joseph is. And I think P.O.J. is pretty good. But Tanya Smith, you know, you look at, again, I touched on this on my video on Saturday. You look at hockey prospecting and, you know, his, you know, NHL are probabilities full comps. What's the top one? Scott Niedermeier. one of the best defensemen of all time.

The second one, Michael Delzado, I don't think he'll be like him, but, you know, Tyson, Barry and there, Paul Coffey, Dougie Hamilton, and then you have the other comps for star probabilities, you know, 91%, he has a 91% chance of being a star defenseman in this league per this model. And it usually is pretty good when it comes to predicting success in the league. You know, the five full comps, you know, Ryan Ellis, Paul Coff, Zach Begotian, Campauer, and Brian Barrett. Some very good company in there.

And we already know how good he is at moving the puck up ice, has a nice shot, good at taking the puck out of the defensive zone into the offensive zone. But if he can clean up some of those mistakes in the offensive zone, in the defensive zone, you know, he's going to be, I think, a player for this team for years to come. I am I was definitely not as high on it when I initially saw the deal because I was like, wow, like this is all you're really getting for Marino?

And, you know, sure, could Smith not live up to those expectations? Absolutely. I mean, you know, he's still on it, the LC, for God's sakes. But I'm just telling you all, like, what, you know, the potential for this player is. He has a very good chance to be a star in this league. And hey, you know, thinking about out loud, press the same. to sign his final contract, you know, could he be the next top defenseman for this team, four years to come down the line?

You know, I don't know if the Penguins are thinking about that right now because he hasn't really played a game for them yet. But, you know, maybe in the back of their mind a little bit, it's like, wow, you know, maybe we just, you know, found our potential next franchise defenseman, you know, from the New Jersey Devils. And again, you know, who knows if that happens. You know, I'm putting that out there just for kind of the sake of it. But, you know, who knows? I think if he does turn it around next season and, you know,

he's coached up a little bit and, you know, polished up as a player, I think this is going to also work in the Penguins' favor. And again, you know, I really like the defensive court next season. A top four of Dumlin Matang, especially if Dumlin bounces back, Pedersen Peterson Petri is very good, assuming Pedersen does not get moved. And then you have the potential bottom pairing of Ty Smith and Jan Ruda. And, you know, maybe you move POJ for a pick or, you know, maybe for a bottom six four or something like that ruby dill and freeman i would say are probably

your number seven or number eight um but at that point well just yawned for some use in there but you know i think this has the makings of a very strong and deep defensive core um and i'm really excited to see you know how they look for next season and you know just overall what mike selvin does um with the pairing so that's all fine and dandy um but coming up in the next m and i'm going to tell all of you, Ron Hexton cannot and will not be done. So stick around for that coming up here in this final segment. All right. I'm back here on this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. I want to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. He also follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. So I saw some people were, you know,

a bit upset on Monday morning when Hextall went on to 957 the fan. I think he was with Colin Dunlap and Chris Mack, the fan morning choice. I think what they call it. And, you know, he was asking, he was asked about the forward group. And, you know, the first guy apparently he immediately mentions is Josh Archibald of all people. And, you know, whatever. I mean, that's honestly what I can say when he's just, you know, piping up the forward depth here. It doesn't matter if it's Archibald or anyone else that's currently on the team. I literally will say whatever.

You know, this is, you know, we're not in the Jim Rutherford days here. He's going to have everyone sit on his lap and he's going to be like, hey, what would you like for Christmas, a son, because he would announce to everyone what he would do. If you were to ask for a wish, he would grant it because that is who Rutherford is. For Hextall, he keeps things very close to the best. He is not going to come out and say what his plan is. He's not going to also come out and trash the forward depth. I think Doug Gluckews come on this show before.

He said it best on Twitter a couple days ago. Hextall said, oh, I like my current group about five or six times a week before they traded for Ricard Raquel. Okay. Like, GMs, they say that to save face. They're not going to reveal what they're actually doing. And, you know, and they go out and make meurs. I got to think Hextall is not happy with the four group.

Work still remains for this team. Right now, in terms of their depth, they got Jeff Carter, Ketter, Kenny Bluger, Brock McGinn, Josh Archibald, if he's going to be in the lineup, and he probably shouldn't because he's just a friend, Jennings Ler. Drew O'Connor and redeems O'Hourna. I mean, that's just, you know, just put it lightly, that's garbage.

To be honest with you, and that's just that's not nearly enough. If you're relying on half of your bottom six who are basically unknowns at this point to all of a sudden just produce after, you know, someone like Anton Hinden had 18 goals last year, Evan Rodriguez had 20. You know, I'll repeat this again,

that England still have to replace 40 goals from the bottom six next season. and, you know, plenty of time to get that time. I'm not trying to get everyone to panic. But, you know, if he were to go into training camp and he hasn't done anything to replace those two players, I think that would definitely be something you can criticize him for. I think that's honestly some male practice, in my opinion. You know, what I can tell you all, though,

from what I've been told by this same person who, you know, is not failing me before as close to the team, he said to me that, you know, penguins, they would like to trade for a winger for Evgeny Malcom. to potentially slide Jason Zucker down the lineup. You know, that's probably the last, that's the last scoop I have for you all today. I don't know when I'm going to get my next one.

Don't ask for them. Again, I've probably had two scoops in my life, if that, while doing this show. So, you know, I can try to find out stuff at times, but, you know, this person, DM me this without even, this person told me this, without even, you know, without even me asking or anything.

So I thought I would put that out there. So, you know, he cannot and he will not be done. At the end of the day, they have two months to go until free agency. There's some good options out, until training camp, excuse me, cheese, I don't know what is going on with me these last couple of minutes. I feel like I'm just stumbling over my words. two months to go until training camp, you know. And sometimes, you know, these deals come together a bit later in the offices.

Remember, four weeks into the 2016 office. And you saw the Brayman and Sutter Plus trade for Nick Minino. And that just basically came out of left field. Then they signed Eric Fair five minutes later. You know, sometimes it takes a little longer to make the trade or sign the player that you want to sign just because, you know, they're on different schedules. You're going to make the money mark. You know, we're five days into the free agency. And Nazim Kadri and John Klingberg haven't even signed their contracts yet.

Nino-Needwriter hasn't either. And I would love for the Penguins to go after him, to be honest with you. So, you know, all I can say to everyone, patience, I think he's going to have something up his sleeve here. I do think they are going to make a move for a forward or two. I think they're going to add at least two more forwards to this team. And, you know, maybe one of them is bringing back in and Hinder and Evan Rodriguez. Maybe another one is via trade, which is, you know,

what I just told you, I think the penguins, you know, they do want to get another winger for Malkin to slide Zucker down the lineup. And, you know, maybe that also involves one of the defensemen going out, you know, whether that's maybe Marcus Pedersen, though I don't expect that, P.O. Joseph, someone like that, because I don't think they're going to go into the season with nine defensemen. I mean, you know, Hextall said it five days. He was like, yeah, we're probably not going to do that. Changes his mind a few days later, you know, whatever, you know.

You know, it's, again, he's just, he's not going to really tell you what he is going to do. It's just basic GM speaks. Basic GM speech, take everything he says at this point with a grain of salt. So that'll do it for this episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast. I appreciate all of you listening to this one. Let me know what you all thought in YouTube comments. You can DM our social media, all that stuff. I'll be back with another episode for you all on.

Tuesday. So hope you all enjoyed it. Have a great rest of your Monday. And I will talk to you on Tuesday.