Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - The JFresh episode is here!

Episode Date: December 8, 2020

Hunter is back with Locked On Penguins this game and he's joined by special guest JFreshHockey for the first episode of the week. The two touch on a multitude of topics, starting with how Jack got into the Penguins and his first memory of watching them. Hunter also asks him what his favorite and least favorite moves were during the offseason. Besides the Jack Johnson buyout, which one was his favorite? How high is he on Jankowski or Rodrigues? They also talk about the Kapanen deal as Jack isn't sold on him being a top-six winger. Where does he ideally fit into the lineup? What are Mike Matheson's strengths as a player? All that, plus much more on this episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON,” and you’ll get 20% off your next order.BuiltGoVisit BuiltGO.com and use promo code “LOCKED,” and you’ll get 20% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello, welcome to this edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter at L-O-W-U-N-Square Penguins. Today's episode is brought to you by BiltBard. You can go to Bilbar.com and use promo code locked on and you'll get 20% off your next order. So also joining us today, we have a special guest.

He's never been on the Locked-on Penguins podcast before, but I thought it would be a great time to bring him on here as we're hopefully getting closer to the start of the season. There's still not been too much news from the weekend. But Jay Fresh Hockey, aka Jack, is joining the show. He does a great job on his site. Just a lot of analytically based player cards and other data visualizations that are just, I love retweeting just because he does a great job with them.

Jack, how you doing, man? I'm not doing too bad. I'm trapped inside my house for 14 days because I just headed back home. So not a lot to do. I really wish there was a season going on, but I guess what can you really do? Yeah, exactly. It feels so weird, man, that we're in December. And usually you'd be about, what, 25 games in the season now almost?

And something around there. Yeah. Usually the Penguins would have at least seven guys out with an injury right now. Especially around this time last year, I think, because Sid was still hurt and everyone was just, yeah, that was nuts. But, yeah, and there's no injury bug right now, at least. So that's good news. But wanted to bring you on, talk all about the team, you know. But first off, what was your earliest memory?

of watching this team or just the penguins in general, to be honest with you. Yeah, well, I can give you the exact one. So I'm home right now in Halifax, Nova Scotia, which is my hometown. And I can tell you that my first penguin's memory is sitting in front of the draft lottery when I was nine years old, deciding that wherever the kid down the road got picked, that would be my favorite team. So Sidney Crosby just happened to end up on the penguins, and that was settled. and it's been about 15 years since then,

and I think that that was probably a decent choice on my head. Yeah, you made definitely the correct choice in picking the penguins, especially with the three Stanley Cups that they've won since then. Mine was, you know, back when I think was six years old, 2003, the Rico Fata years. I remember because I went to a rush town with my family up in Pittsburgh, and I remember I asked my mom, like, who's on TV there? And she was like, oh, that's the Penguins. There's RICO Fadas on there.

I was like, oh, well, I don't really remember too much after that, I just, I remember asking about it. But, you know, let's just, well, now let's fast forward, 15, 17 years later, get to the 2020, 2020, 2021 Penguins. Jack, a lot of moves they made this all season. We all knew that was coming just because of that's who Jim Rutherford is. He just likes to make moves.

You know, sometimes he likes to do it for the sake of doing it. If you had to pick one that you liked the most, and I know there's probably not many that a lot of people like, which one would it be? And if you had to pick the one that you liked, the least, which one would it be? Well, I mean, you know, it might be a bit obvious. The one that I like the most is obviously buying out Jack Johnson.

That is, it had to be done. I think had a hunch that it was going to happen a little bit earlier than most people did. I think as soon as they signed Rikala, I think that kind of clued me in that that was what they were going to do. But, yeah, I mean, obviously, you know, I think I've hit enough about Jack Johnson. over the past year of being an online person and far before that. But, you know, he's a bottom defenseman in the league, maybe the worst defenseman in the league.

And he had, you know, which wouldn't be the end of the world if he was the seventh defenseman. But, you know, he just has that talent for getting coaches to play him way above his role and just not scratching it. And it was about time they got rid of them. And I, for one, I'm not going to be too unhappy to never see him in a penguin jersey again for the rest of my life. Yeah, I mean, I should have honestly phrased the question that,

besides the Jack Johnson move, which is. Yeah, there you go out there. Yeah, that was my fault, though. Go ahead. Okay, okay. I won't take the easy way then. I think that they did a nice job with their depth signings in terms of, I think they identified, on the forward end, I mean,

I think they did a good job of identifying guys who, were available kind of in the bargain bin maybe who shouldn't have been if you were just going off kind of their previous season's performance and not what happened in this past season. For example, you know, Evan Rodriguez had a tough year. Obviously, the Penguins ended up kind of picking them up over the deadline. But if you look at his body of work from before last season, he was a perfectly good third-line player for Buffalo. And I'm not a guy who you really should have been able to pick up for, you know, league minimum for one year. So I really like bringing him back. And then Jankowski,

I mean, you know, literally the most unlucky player in the NHL last year in terms of his, his teammates finishing their chances. I think he ended up with like a like a 3.5% on-eye shooting percentage. Wow. And he actually shot 10% himself. really like if you're talking about a guy getting let down by his linemates or just getting unlucky like mark jankowski he's the guy so he's not an offensive dynamo by any stretch but he's a really good defensive player a guy that i was kind of hoping the penguins would would maybe take a look at and uh you know i hopefully that was some some san ventura you know kind of getting the assignment to find the cheap guys to target and uh i think that worked out you know we're talking about the the worst ones I think that really kind of the two marquey moves they made are are not too great in my mind. And you know what? Like Cody Cici, I'm sure is kind of one that that's kind of getting keyed up here. But, you know, I don't like CC as a player.

I don't necessarily like what it means in terms of what the penguin's depth chart looks like on D right now. At the very least, the one year 1.2 could be a lot worse. And there are things that he can do. a bottom pairing role defensively at least. But I really, like I said with Johnson earlier, I really get scared of those guys who, you know, consistently managed to get their coaches to play them up in the lineup when they shouldn't be.

And Cici's that guy. And I'm really afraid of what happens if, you know, Marito maybe has a sophomore slump or Lattang gets hurt. And suddenly we're looking at Cody Cici as a guy who's on the top pair, the second pair for an extended part of the year. God forbid that happens. God help us all, to be honest with you. That would just be utterly terrible.

I mean, the Cici thing, I get the sense that, you know, they probably won't give him as long of a leash as they did for Jack Johnson. Why they gave Jack Johnson such a long leash is beyond me. I don't know. Who was behind that? It was Sullivan, Jacques Martin, all of them combined. Jim Rutherford, too. I mean, obviously I think him, but I mean,

I think they would actually take C.C. have a lineup if he made a couple of mistakes because Chad Ruehdle would be ready to fill in and I think honestly hopefully he wins the number six job and Cc just gets down to the number seven because that would just be so much better for the penguins in general because he can actually move

the puck up the ice even if you don't really look at analytics you just watch the games I mean CC doesn't even pass watching him I mean he all know his numbers are terrible but just watching and play I mean the big clip that I remember is I think Dmitri Philoovich

posted on Twitter. He, like, missed the net by, like, 150 feet. And it was probably one of the saddest shot attempts I've ever seen in my life. Yeah, the thing with C-C., like, especially with the leaks last year, is that his defense isn't bad. Like, like, and even, you know, like, there was that notorious Kyle Dubas tweet where he said, you know, our internal numbers are a lot kinder to Cody Cici than what you might see in public, which, you know, I don't know if that's totally true, basically. on, you know, I think the amount of data that we have from last year on Cody CC publicly

kind of says the same thing where his defensive performance was actually, you know, decent to strong. It's just that, you know, and like you said, with the missing the side of the barn, he just has zero puck skills. Like he consistently in his career, just been a complete disaster when forced to carry or move the puck or do anything within the offensive zone. And that's really where the problem comes. And, you know, that might post some issues if we want to talk about lineup construction later on and what the roster is probably going to look like, especially on D. But, yeah, you know, like, like Cody C.C. is not Jack Johnson. He's not going to be the worst defense from the Penguins have played in the past five years. But it's just kind of an unforced error

where, like you said, you have Ruehadel who has had really great underlying numbers in terms of his defensive play while he was with the penguins. And, you know, they have him so cheap. He has proven himself to be reliable. I just don't understand why you would throw another wrench into that defense combination, especially when, in theory, he would be kind of a strong counterpoint to Mike Matheson on a bottom pair. Yeah, you know, I would much prefer a Ruudel Matheson pairing than a Matheson-C pairing,

but we're probably going to get the latter as opposed to the former. I mean, it's not going to be as bad as the Johnson-Schultz pairing. I don't think anything will top that pairing as just how bad it was, but I think it still just won't be that good. And, you know, going back to your point about Jan Kalski, I mean, I do remember, I think he was a 15, 16 goal score just a season ago before this past season. I think he also, his shooting percentage was high that year, if I'm not mistaken. I'd have to go double check that.

But I'm still on a Calgary Flames team that doesn't have too much depth beyond their top six. and well their third line's actually not bad but you know he was mostly playing in their bottom six and you know i'm hoping that he can rediscover that kind of scoring touch that he had um with jared mccann who was also a big wild card uh going into this year some people just don't really know what to expect out of them i'm hoping that he can have a big bounce back at center and then you know part of me do does wish though jack that they would have gone after someone like a yesper fast in the offseason who i he's really his underlying numbers are really good. I love a player like Craig Smith.

I think he signed in Boston three years, $3.1 million per. The Penguins could have afforded that if they would have, you know, did some other moves, maybe not as much salary on the Johnson buyout. Hopefully they would have, well, if they would have found a taker to take all this contract, that would have been ideal.

And then, you know, not to buy out, not to save 50% on Nick Buxtad's contract when they traded into Minnesota. So I just wish they would have found other ways to save some more money so they could go out and get a player like Craig Smith, who would have just been a perfect fit on that third line with Jared McCann. Yeah, I think I've been the same boat as you are in terms of, like I said before,

like I like Rodriguez and I like Jenkowski, but I like those as like real like depth additions, like fourth line filling type additions. I don't know how much I love them as like the guys that you get for the third line. And I totally agree with you that when I look at that thing, Hamins roster, the biggest weakness that stands out of me is who is going to score goals outside of that top six. Because, you know, like you said with McCann, you know, he obviously had a really nice goal scoring year. I think based on the stats and history of kind of how percentages tend to play out year over year, I think he's probably due for a pretty big regression next year.

I think I rust undeniably. Like I hate to say it for any excited. Penguins fans listening, but Brian Russ isn't going to be a point per game player next year. He was very fortunate that that line with Tim and Malkin scored at a pretty crazy clip, and it would be pretty much unprecedented from a percentage luck perspective for him to repeat what he did. Now, that's going to be made up for the Penguins by a full year of Zucker, full year of Gensel. I'm not worried about the top six, at least we'll get to maybe one big issue with the top six. but yeah like the bottom six

I think it's competent like there's nobody on it that sticks out to me as I don't want them on the team it's just like you know like you said like if they had just gotten a play driver like Smith or gotten maybe a guy with some offensive upside like Michael Granland you know there could be some kind of exciting things going on in that bottom six and I just kind of see

you know just like a lot of competent enough filler that isn't really exciting me in terms of getting this team kind of to the next level where they hadn't been for a while. Yeah, they did a lot of these both, these buy low kind of moves, I guess, is the way most people would describe them. Just, you know, they're not going to hurt you, 700K. I think it's $1.4 million combined between the two.

But, you know, like I said, I wish they would have just paid someone like Foss or Smith or even Mikhail Granlin, like you said, to play on the third line as opposed to someone like Rodriguez or Jankowski. I mean, it's not to say that those moves were bad because I thought they were fine. But, you know, getting a play driver like Smith or Grandland or Foss, too, I mean, more defensively minded than the other two, I think would still be better. But, you know, before we do get to one of those problems that you mentioned, I think I know what you're referring to. We're going to get that in the next segment. It's time to talk about.

Bill Pard, there's 18 amazing flavors, six new flavors, cookies and cream, caramel brownie, carrot cake, apple almond, crisper, a few of them. The 12 original flavors, a few of them, double chocolate, salted caramel, mint brownie, banana bread, coconut. that the bars are covered in 100% chocolate. They are soft and easy to chew. They are low calorie, low sugar, high protein, and high fiber. One of my favorite flavors is still the cookies and cream, 17 grams of protein, 130 calories, 4 grams of sugar, 4 grams of net carbs. You go to Billbar.com and use promo code locked on and get 20% off your next order.

That's promo code locked on for 20% off at Billbbar.com. All right, so we're back here on this episode of the Locked On Penguins podcast. Jack, I think I know what problem you're referring to potentially in the top six. And if I'm not mistaken, it would be the Kasperi Kappaninan situation. The Penguins acquired him from the Toronto Maple East and that big deal that's sent, you know, Philip Hollander and Reverend Rodriguez and, of course, the top 15, one of the top 15 overall picks in the 2020s. I'll draft, and number 15 pick, exactly. I still, like, I keep going back and forth on this deal.

It's so weird to me, like, I think he can be really. really good with Crosby, then I have days where it's like, I don't know, like, maybe did he works better with Jared McCannan, you know, he always, he had that great season in 2018-19, you know, playing with, I think he played with Matthews most of that year. It was his most, uh, his most, I'm like missing up the word right now. It's the most, um, quality line-made, I guess. And then this past season just really didn't put it together. I had a big slump. And so, you know, I'm just, it's questionable, I think, to say the least. What do you, Was that the one that you were referring to?

Yeah, yeah. I am not sold at all on Caspera Caputin as the top six forward, let alone a top line forward. I am, you know, I'll just preface it. The underlying numbers of Capitan are not impressive at all in terms of his play driving or goal driving or defense or anything like that. He really is kind of, you know, he profiles as being a third line player analytically. And this is a guy who I, you know, I'm in Halifax right now.

I usually live in Toronto. All my friends are Leafs fans. So I watch kind of a disproportionate number of Leafs games. And you watch this guy and you see what is going on behind the results. And what's going on is that, you know, I think people are talking about him as being a really good fit with Crosby. I know that that was on the company line when he was traded. And I'm assuming that that was why Rutherford specifically targeted him to an extent that they were willing to kind of pay above what. was expected market value for him.

But I think the reasons that they are saying that he'd be good with Sid are totally superficial and don't really fit at all with, I think, what Sid actually succeeds with. You know, we're hearing about, you know, Captain is fast. He has a good shot, you know, all this stuff. But Captain's biggest problem is a lack of hockey IQ. And he really doesn't think the game at the same speed of his skates. And he definitely doesn't handle the puck at the same. be it as this case. So I think he's a really limited player in terms of what he can do

for a guy like Sid who in the past we've seen has really valued having guys play with him who can think the game at a level that allows them to kind of support him a little bit more. You know, you talk about Gensel's obviously a super smart player. You know, even Connor Shiri, you know, he fell down a bunch, but he was still a guy who think the game at a high level and Sid really liked playing with him for that reason. to. And then even I mean, even Hornfest, you know, he's not exactly a superstar,

but he can get, he knows what area is to get to. He knows what he needs to do to support Sid. With Kaplan, I just kind of don't see that whenever I watch him. He really seems like a kind of one-and-done rush-style player. He's not a huge punk retriever. He's not a big four-checker. He's not a very good passer.

He had that stretch with Austin Matthews, although I think that he, too, It was kind of bumped up a lot by some very fortunate shooting luck that when Matthews was just completely going off to start that season with Nealander out. I really think, and I think that I'm not alone in this, you know, Jesse Marshall and I have been kind of both sounding this bell. I really think Sid is not going to like him with them. I think it's going to be kind of the light version of when they tried to put Kesselworth Crosby at the beginning of the 15 season. Right, yeah. Where it's just kind of everybody thinks, oh, Kappin, he's a speedy scorer.

Like Sid loves playing with speedy scorers. And we're going to find out very quickly that Sid isn't a rush player. And he wants guys who can get him the puck and support him and retrieve pucks and do all that stuff. And that is just not Kappin's game at all. So it really wouldn't surprise me to see us in a situation where Kappan is playing with Malkin, which where I think he would be a better fit, although I still obviously not an upgrade on Rust. or even on that third line where, again, I don't see him as super complimentary for McCann either.

This really just isn't a trade for me that fits the roster or even really acquires a guy who I think is a guaranteed top six forward, which is, you know, the penguins weren't exactly overflowing with assets. If you're giving up a 15th overall pick, you better be getting a guy who, you know, you can at least be approaching as confident as Jason Zucker that you're getting a proper top six forward. Exactly.

I really don't see Captain in his guarantee. You know, he could be. He could score 30 goals and prove me wrong. But, I mean, we have to judge this trade as it stands from how it looks right now. And I really just don't see a very good fit. Yeah, I mean, I have him at around 20, 22 goals next year. I mean, that's like, that's my thinking right now. I mean, I can see him at 25, but I don't think he's going to be at 30.

I mean, that's also if the fit is just great on Crosby's line. But I do agree with you. I mean, you look at a lot of SIDS. wingers in the past, you know, was great with Chris Kunitz who could really think the game through, a really good playmaker. His skating, obviously, he's not as good as Caponins, but, you know, he just, he knew, he was just a good two-way player, and, you know, he was Pascal DuPuy. I mean, people kind of laughed at, well, what was Pascal DuPui on the top line?

You know, he thinks the game through. He can score, and he's a good passer, too. And those are the kind of wingers that I think that Sid just loves to play with. I mean, obviously him and Gensler are great together, just because Gensel, like you said, things the game through as well and Connor Sherry you know he really I think fed off said even though you know everyone loved love to make fun of them just because he fell a lot but I mean I did also like your point at the end there I mean if you're getting a top if you're trading your number 15 pick you better be getting a pretty damn good player in return and I think

that's just the big thing in the trade of a lot of people including myself to not like it was just the cost to acquire like you could have gone out and got like an actual bona fide top six winger for that number 15 pick just because like we all knew they were probably going to trade it because that's what Jim Rutherford has done almost every year that he's been here with the first round picks but I mean I think you could have done better than Casperi Capitan for the number 15 pick and you know I've been thinking about this as well I wouldn't be surprised if he is on the third line for a lot of this season which Jared McCann it's honestly probably his best fit I mean it it balances out the depth you can move someone else up

to play on the top line with a sitting Gensel and you know it'll probably still work out yeah i mean that's the thing is is you know again like jared mccan's kind of a tricky player for me i i haven't you know i haven't done done like a big deep dive into him just because you know there's limited legalized interest in the penguin's third line center but guy who i think is super interesting because he his defensive impacts have always been pretty good like he's a very strong defensive player and like he belongs in the middle of the ice for that reason. But he's super limited as a playmaker, and he really does most of his stuff off the rush.

He's kind of like if Brandon Sutter was as good as people kind of pretended that he was for a while there, you know, he's good defensively and he has a great shot and he plays down the wing, or he plays off the rush. But, you know, it takes a kind of very specific player to support a guy like that. And I don't really see the penguins, even with Kaepin and they're having a guy who can really compliment him properly. And I still think that we might be talking about the penguins looking for another third line center just because they didn't really surround him with the guys that he needs to really succeed.

Yeah, that's, I think, one of the big things around this all season that I'm kind of still mad about with Jim Rutherford. I mean, you saw on the playoffs when they lost to Montreal, you know, you're putting the corpse of Patrick Marlow on his line and Patrick Hornquist. I mean, those are just two players that are not good fits for him. I mean, Marlow couldn't even really skate on the ice. It was just really painful to watch. and then Hornquist just he's a good player still and obviously he's not going to be here next year which we're going to talk about coming up next but I mean it just wasn't like the right fit for him for the third line for the third line and they just got to give two linemates that can just

surround him and like just I think they just need two offensively minded players around him you know I just it kind of scares you that they're going to put Jankelski and Rodriguez next to him just because I don't think that's what McCann needs next season I think he needs someone you know like a capon or you know like a craig smith if they were if they went out and got him that that's just i think my biggest quiet with the penguins this off season um but you know changing gears a little bit jack what are your thoughts on mike matheson you know we saw some of his underlying numbers from this off season i can't remember which account tweeted this out i think it was his um uh it's it's kind of escaping me right now but you know some of his underlying numbers were actually pretty

decent but then you look more in depth and it's like eh like it still could be a lot better i mean obviously a good skater can move the puck up the up the ice is good in the offensive zone but you know then it all goes to crap the defensive zone where he is just his numbers back there are just atrocious so i mean what do you think of that just i mean we all know how bad his contract is but you know just overall what are your thoughts on him for the penguins yeah just setting aside his contract. There are things that I think are okay about Matheson.

Again, like I said with CISC, he's not the worst defenseman in the league, but this isn't Johnson 2.0. He can't play. He's an NHL defenseman. But there are, again, like with Caput and some fit issues where I think superficially, you can make him seem like

a really good fit and kind of what the penguins need. But when you dive a little bit deeper, you end up saying, like, is this really the guy who is going to be successful on this Penguins team. So for example, I'm not sure what account it was that would have tweeted out those stats, but there are definitely certain areas where Matheson's, you know, his super underlying numbers, like if you were looking at it, it's kind of macro stat impacts on certain things,

like you said, you know, exits with possession of the puck, zone entries with possession of the puck, stuff like that, he'll look really good. And I think it has led a lot of people to think, okay, you know what, like the Penguins, you know, he's not a perfect player. But the penguins really needed, a great transition player, a great transition player that like move the puck and make the first pass and all this stuff. And I think they kind of in some cases have talked themselves into Matheson as the answer to that problem. But if you dive a little bit deeper into those numbers, you see that Matheson is not a breakout defenseman in the way that we normally would think of it on the penguins. He's not making the first pass like a crisp first pass out of the zone.

What Matheson loves to do is carry the puck. So Matheson isn't a transition defenseman in the way that we would normally think about them on the penguins. So the way the penguins like their defense to play, unless it's Jack Johnson, in which case it will just be flung wildly up the ice, is they want their defenseman to make a quick first pass so that the forwards can gain the offensive zone with speed and then probably dump it in, chase it, and then force the defenders on their heels. Matheson doesn't play that. Atheson loves to carry the puck. So he wants to get the puck in the defensive zone, either by retrieving it or by being passed it by his partner,

and then carry the puck using his speed across the blue line and in a lot of cases, into the offensive zone with it on his stick. And so that looks good when you're looking at kind of graphs that are showing his possession exits and possession entries. But what a lot of the time leads to is that he doesn't have skill to really do anything with it in the offensive zone once he gets there. So if you look at highlights of him making those plays, a lot of the time they end with him making a really stupid play or turning it over

or getting canceled out or forcing it on net. And that's kind of where the play dies. And when you talk about a team like the Penguins, you know, like I said, they're a breakout team. They want their forwards to lead the rush. Even Chris LaTang is kind of their biggest kind of puck carrier entry player and he barely does it.

Like he's like average across the entire league. There is no way that Mike Sullivan is going to let Mike Matheson carry the puck out of the zone and into the offensive zone when he could be passing to Afghani Malkin or Sidney Grosby. It's just not going to happen. So I feel like the thing that makes Mike Matheson stand out and probably made him stand out to Jim Rutherford

is not a thing that he's going to be doing in Pittsburgh or a thing that he better not be doing in Pittsburgh or they're going to be in a lot of trouble in terms of what's going on. Yeah. On top. Go ahead. Go ahead. I was just going to say, I finally did find these underlying numbers.

It was from the ones that I think that a lot of people were talking about. I think it was from the point hockey on Twitter, just a lot of data-driven hockey analysts. Analysis, I should say, good grief. Okay, I got a case of the Mondays here. Out of like 200 qualified defense, and they had his controlled zone exits, 2.9 per game, which they ranked 37. loose puck recoveries 21 25th puck battle wins 3.1 that's like third among 2200 and then his turnover rate was 17% which was 187th out of 200 qualified defensemen so I think that's

those are the numbers that a lot of people are referencing that like oh well Mike Matheson isn't as bad as well some people make him out to be but you know like you said if you look deeper at his other underlying numbers I mean you would know that like it's just it's just not the case I would say Yeah, I'm glad you brought those up because, so the point hockey is the kind of a lot, like the public facing blog of sport logic, which is kind of one of the premier, like private analytics firms that's out there. And so they collect crazy amounts of data that usually we don't get to see, but occasionally, like in this case, you do kind of get a quick glimpse at it. And in this case, I think it does tell you quite a bit about Matheson in terms of, you know, there are things that he can do quite well. you know, those puck recoveries and those puck battle wins. He's got a good stick.

Obviously, he can skate and that helps him out quite a bit. But, yeah, he tries to do so much with the puck. He thinks so highly of what he can do with the puck that he ends up racking up those turnovers. And if you watch him play, you're going to see he, a lot of those turnovers are just him making a really stupid play when he could have just made a simple one that would have just, you know, pass the puck out of zone and got the Panthers on their way. So he's in for kind of a real rude awakening, I feel, from Mike Sullivan, who really is not going to let him do what he has been getting away with in Florida.

And, you know, hopefully it makes him a better defenseman. And it can turn him into a guy who can be kind of the capable offensive defenseman on that third pairing that kind of adds a little bit of depth offense to the bottom of the lineup, but also helps out with the bottom six when he's on the ice. but what I'm kind of afraid of is that it's really just going to be the turnovers, and then it's just going to kind of limit the stuff that he can do with the puck on his stick. So again, superficially, you know, good skater, transition player, blah, blah, blah, when you dig deeper into it, I'm just not really convinced that there's a good fit here. And, you know, well, Hornquist, there's like a good case to be made for why they had to get that contract off the books. you know, I'd be more worried, you know, even next year,

little alone two years from now about that Matheson contract, paying him like a top four defenseman, rather than having Hornfist, who you know he's overpaid, but you at least know that you can stick him in front of the net and get good things done on the power play, even if you have to hide him down the lineup in other situations. Yeah, exactly. I mean, he'll still produce like 40, 45 points for the penguins over the next,

If he were to stay for the next season or two, I think he would still be like a 40 to 45 point player. Just especially because of his power play minutes, I mean, he'll get a bunch of assistant goals on there just because he's so great in front of the net. And, you know, he's even straight numbers on what they used to be. But, I mean,

you said they can just hide them on the third line like they were doing for a lot of last season. And he was still producing pretty decently at, you know, whatever power play, 5E5, whatever. But yeah, Matheson, it's just, he's not going to flay out that whole contract here. I mean, he's going to be traded, I think, at some point, there's just no way Jim Rutherford is going to keep him for the next,

what is it, six years or something? I think it's like a six year. Yeah, well, you know, I feel like that's going to be one of the things that Jim Rutherford's successor inherits from him is going to be figuring out what to do with that MAPS and project because, yeah, you know, like, that was the thing that I really didn't like about this offseason for the Penguins is that they really needed some sure things to show up this lineup.

And they paid dearly for two wild swings at Mabies. You know, you're paying for maybe Casperi Kappen isn't a third-liner. Maybe he's a 30-goal or a 25-goal first-liner who can play with Sid. You're paying a 15th overall pick for that, maybe. Maybe Mike Matheson can be a real impact player on a bottom pair who can play in the top four if need be. You're paying him 4.7 for the next six years. you know, these are these are huge gambols that are being made in an off season where the huge gambols were pretty cheap. Like if you look in for agency, there's a lot of huge gambols out there that you could have been had for for pennies on the dollar in a kind of unique situation.

And other than I think taking advantage of maybe some guys in the bargain bin at the bottom of the lineup, Rutherford really didn't do that. He kind of did kind of business as usual in terms of trades and paid kind of full value for his own. guys from cash-strapped teams or guys who really had to move and did a lot of teams and favors because he just got his heart set on certain guys who I'm not convinced they're going to be really good fits in the lineup. Yeah. And honestly, he just seems like with Jim,

you know, when he wants something, he's just going to go out and get it. He doesn't really give a shit whether you just, that's just the way he is. Finally, Jack, just a couple more things before you wrap this up.

Mike Sullivan, you know, was under a lot of fire, under a lot of heat, just for his roster. decisions in the playoffs. Rightfully so. I mean, he did make some very questionable decisions, especially with the third pair, not benching either one of them. I mean, some people want to point to him starting Matt Murray in the first three games over, Trish and Jari. I get it. You know,

I still, honestly, though, I think going with Murray in game one was the right call. That's just, I'll honestly probably die on that hill until he's no longer the coach of this team or, you know, if he just retires in this organization, this is my all. But, I mean, I remember your post from over the summer talking about what to do with him and I think you wrote you know you would keep him another year just because like the thought of firing him and just replacing him would just be too much and you know I think some people do undervalue Mike Sullivan's importance to this team I have gone on record on this podcast and on my Twitter and I've said there are not five coaches in this league who are better than him I will stand by that it's just you know he needs to start I think

getting some results this season, or I do think he may find himself out of a head coaching job sooner rather than later, even though I really don't want him to go. Yeah, I mean, I think he's a brilliant coach. I think that he is the best coach that the Penguins have had since I've been watching them, and I'm not just saying that because of the two cups. I think that he, there's so many good things that I can say about him. I don't think anybody has adjusted to having injuries on a team the way that he has sustainably. I know that Biles McMahon had that one

half-season stretch where he did a nice job with that. But, you know, he integrates kids into the lineup. His roster decisions generally, with the exception of the Schultz and Johnson thing, I think his instinct for that has been sharper than with a lot of guys. And, you know, he isn't a guy who uses analytics. I think that, you know, that's been made pretty clear by beat reporters, you know, by Rossi and Yoi and all that who say that he's not a guy who's really looking at the numbers. But at the same time, I think his instincts and his eye test are really in tuned to what the analytics are saying otherwise. Like, he has a good eye for guys who are driving possession of the puck or helping out lines or forechecking effectively.

You know, like he's a guy who puts together the Blugertan of Aston Rees line and knows to keep Aston Reese in the lineup as opposed to scratching them for maybe, you know, San Lafferty type. because he knows that Aston Rees is doing things that keep possession of the puck even if he may look like if you put me in the game offensively. And I think that kind of thing

really can't be overstated because, you know, Penguin's fans, when the coach is not doing things right, I mean, you know, we get furious about the line combinations and it's, you know, I even remember back to like when Mike Johnston was coach and they were, they had, you know, no left wing depth at all,

but they were putting all their left wings on the right wing and all this just bizarre stuff. Sullivan doesn't do that. Sullivan is almost always on the ball when it comes to the roster. He deploys his guys well. He had them, I mean, they lose Crosby. They lose all these guys to injury in December last year. And he kind of remakes the team on the fly

as this stifling defensive team that was like a top three defensive team of the league at the halfway point last year. You know, there's not a lot of guys in the league who could kind of do that with their team. and Sullivan is one of them. And he has a really good instinct for the way that this team needs to play to be effective. It really was a matter for me of just taking the toy away.

You know, like you can't judge a coach for what he does with Jack Johnson. Yeah. Because every coach has done that with Jack Johnson. Yeah. John Tortorella did that with Jack Johnson, you know, coaches in Columbus and Los Angeles and Carolina. Like they all do it with Jack Johnson. he is a bewitching factor for coaches

for whatever reason. I've never met the guy. He must be the most charming guy in the world. But, you know, Jim Rutherford did what he had to do. He took the toy away. And in my mind, that is more than enough reason to think

that Solomon deserves the shot here to prove what we were all saying, you know, nine months ago or whatever, which was that Mike Sullivan was the Jack Adams favorite by far at the halfway point last year. And suddenly a couple things go wrong.

Putting Jack Johnson with Crystal Tang on the top pairing for half a year was inexcusable. But he can't do that anymore because Jack Johnson is gone here anymore. So I say give him a chance to write it out. And if it really is a matter of the guys in the room just aren't willing to do it for them, like they weren't willing to do it in the playoffs, that's when you kind of reevaluate and see if you can bring in a new voice that they'll listen to or the twilight of the penguin's window. But at this point, it would just be an unforced error and one that could go disastrously wrong. You know, in the article, I said, I really didn't want them to bring in Peter Lavio let because I just thought that it's the obvious Rutherford hire.

You know, he's in Washington. That's not as much of an option. I also don't think he's that good of a coach, to be honest. I really never really been. Yeah, me neither. So I'm glad that they steered clear of that. But, you know, give Sullivan the. chance if it really isn't working out if the team's like out of the playoff picture it gets humiliated

in the first round again then that would be i think a fair time to do it but he's given him a chance to quit himself this year and hopefully he takes it and runs with it yeah i hope so too i just i love how brilliant of a tactician he is i mean just seeing how he would outcoach every other coach from 2016 to 2017 was just brilliant it was just masterful he would just push all the right buttons even in 2018, a Penguins team that's not gas there probably beats Washington. I will die on that hill forever too. And then, you know, just, you know, I've had two unfortunate results these last couple of years.

But I also do think a big thing that I'm really liking for Sullivan going into this season. I mean, he has two new assistant coaches. They got rid of all the rest of those guys. I mean, looks like Jacques Martin is like a secret agent for the Penguins because now he's with the Rangers and the Rangers signed Jack Johnson. So that's perfect. And then, you know, bringing in Todd Reardon, I think was a good move. he's not a good head coach, but he's good as an assistant and can run a good power play

and can really hopefully coach up these defensemen. I'm really hoping he can. I'm not really the believer anymore, like, oh, like these defensemen whisperers or whatever like that. You know, everyone would like to say that about Sergey Ghanchar. I mean, it worked sometimes, but it didn't work at other times. But, you know, I'm hoping that he can get the most out of some of these guys that they brought in. And then, finally, to wrap up, Jack. What do you think the ceiling is for this Penguins team this season?

I mean, all we know, they could be in a new division. There was rumors of that central division that they're talking about. Maybe in a division with Chicago, Detroit, Nashville. I mean, I saw Tampa Bay would be in there, too. If they were in that division, I would have them at second. But, you know, just overall, like, what's your ceiling for them? Or what do you expect from them this season? I still think their ceiling is the cup in terms of regular season finishing, I think, you know, for second or third.

But I could see kind of any range of results just because of how many wild cards there are whether it's Tristan Jari's goaltending when we really don't know that much about him. We don't have a long sample. We've seen kind of really good stuff and not so good stuff from him. We obviously have new fits. But at the same time, I mean, you really can't underestimate the impact of not only not having Jack Johnson, but also having potentially full years of Zucker and Gensel, which is something that the penguins really hurt from not having last year.

And, you know, it's easy to forget, based on how last season ended, that, you know, we were talking about a team that was top three in the NHL with insane injuries at the halfway mark. And it was really only when Brian DeMoulin got hurt and was replaced with Jack Johnson that the wheels kind of fell off. So, you know, like this is a insanely high-ceiling team. And I think every year, kind of people get down on them. And I think every year they kind of look a little bit silly about it until the playoffs when things sometimes slide out of control. but I still see this team as a real contender, even if some of the roster moves aren't too encouraging. I think that the guys at the top of the lineup are just too good.

And even better if a guy like John Moreno can take yet another step. And, I mean, he was already one of the best defensive defensemen in the league last year. If he can build on that next year, then emerge not only as kind of a top pair guy, but maybe even a future number one guy, that would be huge and very exciting for the penguin. and could maybe kind of transition them into a new chapter here. Yeah, I was thinking, man, if Marina's offense comes out, look out. Just look out, I mean, because we already know just how great his unrolling numbers are defensively. I mean, his shot suppression numbers are pretty damn good.

I mean, I think that was one of the biggest reasons why he was being considered for the Calder before he got hurt. And yeah, I mean, if his offensive numbers break out, I mean, this is going to be, I think, one of the best defensemen in the league at some point. If he doesn't get better offensively, I should stress that part. I mean, that's just how it really rolls with this league. But Jack, I really appreciate you coming on this episode, man. A lot of great content for the Penguins. Where can they find you on Twitter and where can they find your work?

So I'm on Twitter as at J. Fresh Hockey. I tweet about every team in the NHL pretty frequently, but because I am a Penguins fan, I do tend to overrepresent them a little bit. can find my writing at a substack. I do kind of deep dive breakdown type pieces that kind of incorporate analytics and kind of I test game tape stuff so you can kind of see what's actually going on behind the underlying numbers. I have only done, I think, one on the penguin so far. I did one kind of explaining how Zach Asson-Rice looks so unimpressive on the ice and yet has such insane defensive numbers. You can check that out. But then also, if you're curious about guys

around the league like Che Theodore, Dougie Hamilton, Eric Carlson, Johnny Goddrow. You can find that stuff there. And then finally, you can find my visualizations and a whole lot of kind of analytics toys that you can play with on my Patreon at J. Fresh Hockey. There is a lot of stuff including player cards, a lot of historical stuff as well, as well as a kind of roster builder that uses wins above replacement where you can for any season going back to 07-08 basically build out a roster of how you would like to have built the team or like to build the team for next year and it will give you kind of an estimated standing's points outlet or projection for them. So if you want to see what would have happened in 2012 if the Penguins had discarded Tyler Kennedy and signed the Armory Yager, you can see how that would have impacted things, that kind of thing. A lot of content coming out with the capital C from me.

That pretty much covers it. That's perfect. Yes. And also, yes, consider donating to your patron everyone, especially the Jack Johnson tier, which I absolutely find that hilarious that you have a Jack Johnson tear on there, man. That's the perfect name for it, especially when you go on your page. Definitely check out his work, guys.

We'll be back with another episode tomorrow. Stewards Play today. So if you guys are Sewers fans, listen to this podcast. Go Stewards. and hopefully we can get some NHL news hopefully soon about the season because it's just kind of getting now we'll hopefully get some news at some point I guess it's just how it's end it so thank you guys so much for listening to this episode and I will talk to you all next time