Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - The Penguins and all the "What Ifs..." surrounding the team!

Episode Date: August 12, 2024

The Pittsburgh Penguins have a lot of questions this year, including an all-important one: What if? Hunter and Patrick start the show with a big one as they combine the MCU and the Penguins - what if this team wins the Stanley Cup or what if they win the draft lottery? They take a side on that before moving on to the big four. What if they keep humming right along or what if the wheels finally come off for them? The two traded talking points and give their takes before closing the show with arguably the biggest question of them all...what if Tristan Jarry figures it out or what if this is just who he is?Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!eBay MotorsFor parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guaranteed Fit at eBayMotors.com. Let’s ride. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNHL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply.FanDuelFanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook. As playoffs wind down, the sports stop sporting like we want them to. But this summer, FanDuel is hooking up ALL CUSTOMERS with a boost or a bonus, DAILY! That’s right, there’s something for everyone, every day, all summer long! Visit FANDUEL.COM and add a big win to your summer bucket list!FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We're throwing the Penguins in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, aka the MCU today, and we're going to discuss that right after this. Your Locked-on Penguin, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguin, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Hunts or Hodes. You can follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, joined by my co-host Patrick Damping and follow him on Twitter.

at Cundrum for Wet, and you can follow the shows Twitter at L.O. UnderSore Penguins, of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. And finally, today's episode is brought to you by Fandall. Make every moment more as the playoffs wind down the sports. Stop a sporting like you want them to. But this summer, Fandall is hooking up all customers with a boost or a bonus daily. That's right. There is something for everyone every day all summer long. Visit fandle.com to get started. So, Let's go into the MCU for the Pittsburgh Penguins. We did something similar last year when you first came on to the show.

So we're going to do kind of a part two for that this year. And our first segment, we're going to do what if either A, the Penguins win it all this year or B, they win the draft lottery. We're going to predict which one is more likely. I think for me, I think it's more likely they win it all, even though I still don't think they're going to do that. And I also don't obviously don't think they're going to win the draft lottery. But my thinking is I just don't think they will win a draft lottery when you have players like Sydney Crosby, Evgeny Malkin, Chris Littang and Eric Carlson on the same team. Having those players still playing at a high level is not going to allow this team to win the draft lottery. Could they still be bad this year?

Sure, that's definitely a real possibility. But I don't think it's going to be bottom three to bottom five level bad. Maybe it's bottom 10 level bad. But I still think when I look at this. team. It's a very middling team overall kind of compared to last year, a team that as of right now is still outside my playoff picture for the Eastern Conference, but I still lean them towards winning the Stanley Cup in that extreme scenario over winning the draft lottery. But overall, both scenarios would make a lot of people mad, and I would be here for it. Yeah, I mean,

I think that overall, I'm with you on that take that I think they're more likely to, to say win the Stanley Cup than they are to win the draft lottery. However, I will say this. I can see a world where they win the draft lottery and it's not, oh my God, they stink. Like, it's not going to be San Jose last year or the race to the bottom all those years ago for McDavid

when the Oilers and Sabres just blatantly tanked to get to the bottom. But I can see a world with this team, if you look at the last two years. And the last two years, they missed the playoffs. They missed the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. One point two years ago, and I think it was maybe three last year. I can't remember, but either way, like just on the outside of the playoff picture.

The way I could see them winning the draft lottery would be in the same way, where they would finish within, let's say, the bottom 10. not going to be 30 second overall. Maybe they're 27th, 28th. They don't have half bad odds to win it. But the way they get there is kind of more what I want to talk about rather than them winning it. Because again, like I stick way more closer to you with it.

Like I can see this team sneaking into the playoffs. And then all of the dad energy comes out of Crosby, Malkin, Latang, Carlson. And they're like, hey, this might be our last chance. let's just go and they turn it on. But the way I could see that happening is this is kind of a middling team, like you said, where they're not going to get the doors blown off of them every night. They're not going to lose 4-1, 5-0 and like the sharks did at least twice this year, 10 to 1. But you can see them losing a lot of 2-1 games, 3-2 games, 4-3 games.

they just miss going to overtime. They don't get that one extra goal. Or they go to overtime and they lose and they get that one point. But they just keep ticking down in the standings where you go, this team doesn't suck, but they're just not good. And you can see where they just start piling losses up by one goal and they fall down the standings and they never really recover. So if they were to end up in that position,

that's how I could see that happen. And to go off that a little bit, you know, I think part of that would be maybe their overtime struggles continuing this year, considering how woeful they've been in overtime, not just this past season, but the season prior. I thought the season prior to this past one was the worst it could get for the penguins in overtime, but this team still said, hold my beer. It can still get worse because this team was also flat out terrible in overtime this past season. And maybe I'll say it again here. You feel like it couldn't get worse, but it very well may, considering how. three on three has just not been their bread and butter these last couple of years. So maybe through that way, we can see it a little bit.

But also, they would have to get some real big time draft lottery luck. Pat, heck, if they were to finish, you know, number seven, number eight, you would have to get the beautiful luck of the draw from the lottery balls to even move up to number one. And that's still very unlikely, but that's how it would have to be in my case. Well, you know this team. They've never gotten lucky to draft lotteries before. It's never happened in the history of the franchise. The other thing, though, that I think keeps this from being realistic,

like, you know, even though like that's the scenario that I was saying I could see, is you look at the bottom of the league standings right now. And you look at the teams who finish down there. They got Macklin-Colabrini, but really did they get any better other than him, maybe not by more than two or three spots. Like maybe they finished 29th overall rather than 32nd. Chicago, same deal. they brought some people in, but I don't think they finish in a playoff spot.

They maybe don't finish in a good lottery spot. Chicago should be better this year, but they're not a playoff team. Anaheim, they're still pretty bad. Columbus, they're still pretty bad. Montreal might be a little bit better, but I don't think by much. Arizona slash Utah, they did get better. I think they could be a fringe playoff team this year. Ottawa, who knows, Seattle, they'll probably be a little bit better.

Calgary, who knows. New Jersey is definitely going to be better. Buffalo, who knows, Philly, they're probably going to be right about the same spot. Minnesota, middle of the road team. And then you get to the Penguins at 19. And I think that's really about where they are, somewhere between 15th and 20th in the league, between everybody when you throw them all into the same category. So it's, again, like we said, a fringe playoff team where I think the more likely scenario

is the dad's strength kicks in for the boys and they just go on a magical Cinderella run. Again, I just don't think Cindy Crosby will allow this team to, you know, quote unquote tank this year or just finish really low in the standings, considering how he had another 90 plus point season this past year. Evgeny Malkin found the fountain of youth down the stretch. Crystal Tang, I think, can be more consistent for a full season, et cetera, et cetera. So again, if I had to pick one, I'm going to lean towards the other extreme in that is winning another Stanley Cup. I will say the thing that I do have some hope for, and this really like leans in. to the what if is I do think, and it's not by a lot, so I don't want anybody to say that I'm wearing black and gold-colored glasses here

and just waving my pom-poms for the penguins. I do think this is an improved bottom six this year, and that has been really truly their Achilles heel. The last few seasons is that their bottom six has been really, really bad, or just somewhere between really, really bad and just wholly unimpressive. and I think now, like, you have, like, granted, it goes with the theme of the show this episode. It's all a what if. But right now on paper, I like this bottom six and think it has potential,

which is something I really couldn't say for the past couple of years. On paper, I think it should be better than last year, but I want to see it in action and see if they can score some big goals and big moments before I can fully say, okay, this unit is fully better than last year's unit. And that's what I'm kind of saying. And it's like, on paper, I'm happy with this. I don't think it's great. I don't think it's going to make them one of the best bottom sixes in the league.

No. But I think it's improved from what we had. And granted, that's, you know, not saying a lot, but improvement is still improvement. Yeah, I mean, it should be, you know, especially if some of the players down there can have, you know, better seasons this year compared to last year. And just a few seconds ago, I know there's a weird noise. My dog was itching his collar right behind me because he wanted to join me for today's episode. So he's just hanging out in my own thing today. He's the grand admiral.

His name is Thrawn for everyone out there. The Grand Admiral is just hanging here for today. But that would do it for this first segment. Coming up in the second segment, we're going to continue the what if series and discuss what if, A, the Penguin's Corps keeps going and performs really well, or B, the wheels come off this year, and we're going to discuss which one is more likely overall.

But before we get to that, we have to tell you all about our first sponsor, and that is Fandul. I love sports. I love them so much that I never want them to stop. But as the playoffs wind down, we get fewer games, and the sports aren't sporting like I want them to, but the Fandul lets me keep the sports going whenever I want.

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So, Pat, let's continue our what-of series here. And what if either A, the Penguin's Corps keeps producing at a fairly high level, maybe not the level that we're used to at times, or B, the wheels fall off considering that they're all pretty up there in age. You know, Malkin, he's 38 this year, Crosby just turned 37, Crystal Tang is 37, Eric Carlson is 34. I'm going to lean on the side of them continuing to produce, at least at a decently high level.

I'm never going to bet against Cindy Crosby. He had another 90 plus point season this past year. Heck, I can see him doing that again, considering how crazy good he still is as an NHL player. Fgeny Malkin, he may not have been a point per game player this past season, but with how he found the Fountain of Youth down the stretch next to Michael Bunting, with how Rickard Raquel is playing. I could see him having a similar season,

if not a better season overall for the Penguins and maybe producing, you know, maybe 70, 72 points this year or something like that. I could definitely see that in the cards, even though he's 38, especially if he's able to stay fully healthy. And, you know, knock on wood, he has been fully healthy in the last couple of seasons overall. Crystal Tang, I felt like he had a mostly pretty sound campaign this past season. Down the last month, month and a half, though, struggled. He was definitely a bit banged up.

We all know that. But if he's able to stay consistent, I like those ons. And that Eric Carlson, we've discussed that ad nauseum on the show. We think he's going to have a better year. But for me, with both scenarios, I'm going to lean on the first. one in that it's they continue to play at a pretty high level for this season. I think overall Crosby's the best bet to say that it's going to continue 94 points last year. He looked, you know, he didn't look like the Crosby of even five years ago, but he's still Crosby,

damn it. He still has the vision that nobody else has. He's still got the work ethic that Colby Armstrong once called him the greatest fourth line grinder to ever play the game. And he's still a step ahead of everybody. And I don't mean that in the sense of he's still got the speed and the skill and all that ahead of everybody. He's still just mentally the way he sees the game a step ahead of everybody, which if you still have that, it's why Mary O'amue was able to play. So even with all his health injuries, it's why he was still so good even right up until his second retirement. Because he was watching the game was moving in slow motion for him.

and he could think it better than anybody else, and that is the hallmark of Sid's game. I think we've talked, like you said, we've talked about a lot. I think Eric Carlson, much better environment for him this year. I think he's going to do very well. I think he's going to bounce back,

so to speak, and just have a really good campaign with the penguins. Evgeny Malkin is the one that I really can't figure out. I just, I don't know. I think Latang, barring health will be okay. his workout regimen in commitment to fitness is just otherworldly. And assuming he's been able to train that way this summer,

I think he's going to be just fine. The points might not be there. It might be another 50, 55 point campaign. But at this point, if he's still logging big minutes and doing well, I can't complain, it's Malkin, who I can't figure out. Because, yeah, he found the fountain of youth with Michael Buncing. And there is a lot to be said for the fact that, he didn't have any real consistency until Michael Bunting showed up.

I want to see if that carries on. I'm also, I remain worried that this guy, his body has been beat to hell and back in his career. Injuries, surgeries, just he played when, like we've talked about it before, when he played at his best in his prime, the dude was a bully. And that is an unforgiving type of hockey. because you're getting beat up by everybody every single night. So again, it's a great microcosm for the way we feel about this team when it comes to Evgeny Malkin because he could go out,

put up another 75, 80, 80 plus points. And I'd be like, yeah, so Gennie Malkin, it's what he does. And the wheels could come off next year. So, like, I really don't know. So I think the thing that I'm more confident in with Malkin was, you know, even before Bunting came along, his production was still, I guess, fine, if that's the word you want to use.

It wasn't like, you know, elite or anything like that, but I still think it was mostly fine for a second line center. It just got the much needed bump that it, again, it needed once Bunting came into the fold in the Jake Gensel trade. And, you know, 27 goals, 67 points in a full season. That's pretty sound second line center production for someone who is 37 years old. And I still think he can continue that next season with, two good linemates in Bunting and Raquel who are finishing his chances. I'll keep saying it on

the show. He did not have players on his line for a good chunk of last season that could finish his chances. It was usually him that was having to create chances for himself and not have really anyone to pass to. I mean, he had Colin White on his line for games last year, Pat. I mean, what are we doing here with that? He was kind of getting the quote unquote scraps, if you will, at times with this lineup, well, Crosby was obviously getting a top linemates, you know, Gensel when he was still with the team, Brian Russ, et cetera, et cetera. But, Malka, just never had consistent linemates throughout the season. And I still think even though he is a year older at this point,

I know his body has been through so much during his career, I still think he has more to give overall. And I see a similar type season from him this year. You know, maybe I could be off base with that, but I still think he's going to have a similar season. It may not be again, you know, 80, 85 points. I think that might be a little too much wishful thinking. But, you know, maybe 70, 72.

75 points, something like that. I think that's definitely doable for him this year. Yeah, I also should probably put a caveat on what I'm saying. I don't think that I know the rundown here if you're watching on YouTube says, what if the wheels come off? I don't think the wheels are coming off for any of them. I don't think they're suddenly going to become replacement level players. I don't think of Gennie Malkin's going to show up this year and put up 20 points.

Like, I don't think that's going to happen. But what I'm saying more so is, you know, what if he's a 45 point guy? And like, what if that happens? And like, I wouldn't get another center if he's a 45 point guy. Like that, yeah, I have to start having a conversation that they may need to get another upgrade at center for that. Yeah. And I don't think that's going to happen either.

Like I'm again, way more on your side that I think he is going to have a pretty. typical 37-year-old of Gennie Malkin type of season where 65, 70, 75 points are absolutely attainable. But the point I guess that I'm trying to get at is that of the four players we're discussing here, Latang, Carlson, Crosby, Malkin, he is the biggest wild card to me just because Crosby's Crosby, he's a top five player of all time. Chris Lattang, unbelievable shape. Eric Carlson plays the game in a way that lends itself to producing points. And then there's Evgeny Malkin who just you never know what you're going to get with them.

And I don't want to call it. I don't want that to come off as I'm calling him inconsistent. But you just look at everything he's been through as a player. And it would not shock me if there was a step back this year. No, I definitely hear you on that. I think it's definitely possible. But, you know, again, as I was saying, you know, if he takes a big step back and is only a 45 to 50 point player,

we're going to have a conversation about them getting a new second line center, I think as soon as next free agency. Yeah, and I mean, I don't think, you know, I made the Mario Lemieux comparison with Sidney Crosby, and I know people hate this discussion, but I don't think it would be the worst idea if you could find a second line center, especially in a couple years when the salary cap goes through the roof

and Evgeny Malkin pulls a Mario Lemieux and finishes off his days on the win, and just gobbles up points while somebody else drives the line. Right. I still think that's a couple years away. I mean, worst case this year, if he really takes a big step back, I think it's next year. But I think we're still probably, in my opinion, 2026 until they start looking for a new, at least a second line center overall.

But I think that I'll do it for this second second. And coming up to end the show, we're going to continue our WOTA series with what if either A, Tristan Jari figures it out or B, this is kind of who Tristan Jari is at. an NHL goalie so far for his career. That's coming up right after this. All right, we're back here on this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Huntsor Hodes, joined by my host, Patrick Dam. So, Pat, this one has been so tough to figure out these last couple of years.

Will Trishinjari figure it out for a full season, or will he continue to be the same goalie that he's been for the last few seasons where, you know, he's kind of good for half the season, but then he struggles down the stretch, especially after January. I have been fooled by him two seasons in a row. I have predicted two big seasons from Tristan Jari. They have not come to pass. I'm not going to make that same mistake a third time. I kind of think this is who he is.

He's going to have some really good moments for this team. He's going to backstop them to some wins, but he's also going to have some bad moments for this team where he's going to get pulled. He's not going to look well in net. You can usually tell how a Tristanjohn start is going to go in the first five minutes. That's what I've kind of noticed during his time in Pittsburgh, because look at how

aggressive he's playing the first five minutes. If he's pretty aggressive, you know, he's going to have a good start. If he's a bit shaky in net, if his movement is not as crisp as usual, it looks like he's going to have a bad night. That's exactly what happens. So just so everyone knows, pay attention to that for this upcoming season with number 35 in net. But I think for me, I kind of think this is just who he is at this point. I want him to surprise me when it comes to maybe figuring it out overall. Well, in doing prep for this

episode in this segment specifically, I went to one of my favorite sites that I use quite a lot when it comes to this show. And that's stat muse. And here was the average save percentage in the 23, 24 NHL season, 9.03. You know what Tristan Jari's save percentage was in 2324? 903. Tristan Jari, at least right now by the numbers, is an average goalie in the National Hockey League. Is he great?

No. Is he bad? Also no. He's average. He is right in line with just about every NHL average goalie that we see this year. And here's the thing I think we need to see. this year. And if you've been listening to the show, you know where I'm going with this. They brought back Alex Nadolkovic, who is about the same. He, there's not a lot of daylight

between Tristan Jari's numbers and Alex Ndokovych's numbers. The hunter is said it a million times. The reason Alex Ndokovic looked better than Tristan Jari to end the year was because the penguins decided they could score again. It had nothing to do, it had really nothing to do with goaltending. They'd get a couple saves here and there, but they were able to score again. Now that you have two goalies who essentially are just league average, you have a platoon. You don't have a starter. You don't have a backup. You've got two guys who can start games and give you a chance to win.

And it's an old cliche in hockey, but the only thing you can realistically ask of your goalie is that they give you a chance to win. You don't need them to win games for you. Just don't lose them. So if you can give them equal amounts of workloads, I think the answer. is this is who Jari is. But if you lessen his workload, he played 51 games last year. You can take that down to 45, 46. I think we're in business.

And I think Alex Nadelcovic will give him enough runway that once we get to the playoffs, because we've seen Tristan Jari become a starting goalie. He's been an all-star twice. He's had a save percentage at 9-21 and 9-19 in his career. And that's pretty solid for a goalie in the market. or narrow. So if you can lessen his workload and you can get some quality starts out of Alex and the Delcovic throughout the season and this team finds itself in a playoff spot, you can make Tristan Jari your number one goalie. But at the same time, these are the Pittsburgh Penguins we're

talking about. Very rarely in their history, if they needed a goalie to just win them games, they just need a goalie to not lose them. I think about Tom Barrasso in the 90s. Was he great for the era, yeah, but was he really that good? No, they didn't win because of goaltending. I think of Mark Andre Fleury in 2009. He wasn't as good as Mark Andre Fleury in 2008 when they lost the Stanley Cup. I think of Murray, Flurry, Zach Coff throughout 16 or 1617. Did they play a big role at times?

Absolutely. But goaltending wasn't the reason they won. If they can have a goalie who just doesn't lose some games, they're in good shape. See, I agree with you. And again, I always have said that you really just need to have goaltending if you want to go far in the Stanley Cup, at least average goaltening. But I think for this team, they're going to need at least a little bit more than that, just because they're not a Stanley Cup contender.

You're going to need at least a little bit above average goaltending from him and Adelkevich if they want to at least decently go far this year. That's why I want him to be quite a bit better this year overall compared to last year. Again, I still think this is kind of who he is at this point. but if he's able to finish, you know, 910, 912, 915 somewhere in that area, the Penguins, I think, will definitely at least be a little bit more in business this year compared to last year. And he can finally show that he can be consistent at the NHL level for a full season,

not just, you know, 40, 45, 50 games and all that stuff. Yeah, that's really the biggest thing is I, the only conclusion I can really come to with Tristan Jari in his struggles the last couple years is that he's just not equipped to be a, I don't want to say full-time starter because that's not the right way to put it, but he needs a lessened workload because when he's fresh, he's a starting goalie.

He has shown us to some multiplications. We kind of forget because of how the way the season ended last year, he made us all look dumb early on. The first couple months of the season, when we were all like, oh my God, I can't believe Kyle Dubas signed him to that deal. He was outperforming it. And then once we started getting into the,

I was going to say dog days, just as a dog comes up on Hunter's lap, if you're watching on YouTube. So that was not planned. But anyway, once we get into the really home stretch of the season, if he's already played 40-some games or a low, high 30s, low 40s, he burns out.

So if we can lessen that workload, we might have something here. Right, no, I agree with you. I think if he's able to play, you know, 44, 46, maybe upwards of 50 games for this year, I think that would make them a lot of sense. Just a total 1A, 1B situation for the Penguins School attending this season. But I think that will do it for today's episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast.

Thank you all so much for taking the time to listen to slash watch this episode. And Fawn, thank you so much for coming in for today's episode. I know you were being a very good boy for those. Huge contributions by the good boy. See, he brought the good vibes for today. I love that dog so much. But, again, that would do it for today's episode. Thank you all so much for tuning in.

We really appreciate it. And we'll be back on Wednesday.