Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - The Penguins make their pick AND a trade in the same day!

Episode Date: June 29, 2023

Whew, what a day for the Pittsburgh Penguins! Hunter starts today's episode with a full breakdown and analysis of Brayden Yager after he predicted him to be the pick in the Locked On NHL Mock Draft. He got something right! He looks at how he has one of the best shots in the class and why he seems to not be as selfish with it going forward. He also brings up how Yager worked more on his two-way game this past season, which is why some of the numbers fell, but that he still needs a lot of work in the defensive end. When will he be ready for the NHL? Hunter also discusses that before moving on to the Reilly Smith acquisition. He analyzes how great Smith is off the rush and at 5v5 before discussing why he's going to be of tremendous value to the team while killing penalties. He then looks at what Kyle Dubas said about potentially bringing back Jason Zucker and if that even makes sense based on the team's salary cap situation. Finally, he ends the show with why the Penguins could and should open up more space before Saturday since Jeff Petry was in some trade rumors on Wednesday.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!AG1If a comprehensive solution is what you need from your supplement routine, then try AG1 and get a FREE 1-year supply of Vitamin D AND 5 free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/NHLNETWORK.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNHL for $20 off your first purchase.ebay MotorsFor parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guaranteed Fit. eBay Motors dot com. Let’s ride. eBay Guaranteed Fit is only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply.FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Don’t miss the chance to get your No Sweat First Bet up to TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in Bonus Bets when you go to FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have officially made the number 14 overall selection in the 2023 NHL draft, and I'll have my full thoughts and analysis on Breeden Yeager coming up right after this. Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, and welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast.

I am your host Hunter Hodes. I'm going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow this shows Twitter at L-O-1S4 Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. This episode is brought to you by Fandall Sports. The official sports betting partner of Lockdowne. You can make every moment more with them and visit fandle.com slash locked on today to get started.

So without further ado, let's jump right into it. The Penguins make their first round selection on Wednesday night. and they take Braden Yeager, a player who I actually had mocked to the Penguins in a locked-on NHL mock draft, so I will give myself a pat on the back for that. Even though he was a bit further down my board, I had him number eight for the Penn specific players that I looked at. I still don't think this is a quote-unquote bad pick. Honestly, he was one of the first players that I really enjoyed watching when I started

getting into this class for this years. It was just that other players who I watched were better than him, in my opinion, at least. I mean, I don't do this professionally anything. I just give you all my opinions and analysis of the players that I watch, especially for this class. It was just that someone like a gay pro and Oliver Moore, a Matthew Wood, were a bit better than someone like Yeager. But I don't think this is a bad pick. Number one, he does have an NHL shot. I think he has one of the five best shots in this entire draft class.

It freezes goalies. It's very hard to stop. And the release is spectacular. He needs to use it more. And that's a little concern that I have going forward is that he wasn't using it as much this season. Last season, not this past season, last season, he scored 34 goals. This past season where you usually see goals scoring for prospects go up, especially in their draft year, he only had 28, and that was in four more games. That's a little bit concerning to me.

He needs to be less selfish with the puck on his stick. Buddy, you have one of the best shots overall. Use it to your advantage. But he did get back to basics a little bit in the playoffs. I think he heard my complaints and maybe other people's complaints, something like that, and he scored six goals in 10 games for his team. So if he can continue doing that moving forward, that would be awesome. He also did work on his playmaking ability a bit this season. Last season he had 25 assists. This season he had 50.

So a plus 25 increase, that is very good. His skating, it's gotten a little bit better over the years. It's still not where I personally want it to be, but I still think it's pretty decent. The big thing, you know, since he's a center, his two-way game. He's not a good defensive player, at least from what I watched. And that's a big part of his game that's going to need to be developed

if he wants to make it in play center in the NHL. Because honestly, my friends, I think there are questions about what his long-term position is going to be at the NH level. If he can't work on his defense, he may have to shift to win where he doesn't get as much of the defensive responsibilities. But if he can, then center is right there for the taking for him.

So again, I like it. I think he instantly becomes one of the best prospects in the system. I would probably still have Owen Pickering a little bit higher. If the Penguins maybe had taken someone like Oliver Moore or Gabe Perrault or Matthew would, I would have put one of those three over Pickering. But right now, I would still give the edge to Pickering a little bit. I just overall think Yeager has a long way ahead. if he wants to make it to the NHL.

If he can continue to shoot and shoot a lot more, work on his defensive game, continue to be a solid playmaker, then I do think he can be an NHL contributor. My personal comparison for him was Mike Hoffman, especially with how great Hoffman's shot is. That's the reason why he got to the NHL. Heck, you can even say,

maybe someone like Jared McCann with how great his shot is. We saw it here in Pittsburgh. We obviously saw it this past season in Seattle when he was one of the best goal school. in the league. I also say Bo Horvatt is a decent comparison. Someone also has a great shot, decent playmaking ability, decent skater. So he needs a little bit of work defensively, but Horvats worked on that part of this game as well. Those are some of the player comps that I've really looked at for someone like Yeager. Now, to wrap up, when do I think he could

be ready for the penguins? I think at minimum, my friends, three years. I think when Cindy Crosby's 38, Malkins 39, Lattang's right around there too. That's at best when he could be making his annual debut. But in all honesty, I think it's going to come a bit after that. Honestly, it could be after all three of them retire. So no, it's not going to help right now. And I understand what people are going to say, maybe down on the YouTube comments, send me DMs.

And I've already seen it on social media that, well, this guy's not going to help them now. Like, why make the pick? well, you eventually have to start restocking your system even though you've won a lot during an era. And that's why Kyle Dubus decided to make this pick and also decided not to trade the day. Because again, I would have been all for trading the pick if you could have gotten someone in here who can help right now.

Dubis obviously didn't get an offer that he may be liked on the pick. Maybe he didn't want to slide down a little bit in the draft, even though he easily could have. I mean, Gabe Perot lasted until 23. The New York Rangers took him, which is very unfortunate because I think Gabe Perot, he was number four on my board and I think one of the best playmakers in this draft.

But he didn't want to do that. They were high on Yeager. He even said to the media after they made the pick that he was number one on their board. I'll put a tinfoil hat on right now. If Zach Benson wasn't picked by the Sabres, he was going to be the pick. They took him out for dinner as well.

They really liked him. I think he would have been the pick if the Sabres went with someone like Pelica or Matthew Wood, something like that. But it's Yeager. Again, I think it's a fine pick just like how I bought the same with Owen Pickering last season. It's just not the sexiest pick or the pick where a player could be ready a bit before Yeager's time in the NHL, if that makes sense. but those are my overall thoughts on those selection of Brady-Yager. Let me know what your thoughts are down in the comments for YouTube. You can also send me a DM on social media when you tweet about it as well.

Again, B-minus C-plus, not the best, but surely not the worst. There are some picks tonight. Arizona picked Seema Shev in the top 10. I liked him quite a bit, but he was a little further down my board at least. But let me know what your thoughts about the pick. I like it a little bit, but I think he's still. far ways away and he needs a lot of work before he becomes an NHL. But that does it for this first segment coming up in the second segment,

we're going to get into more details surrounding the Riley Smith trade and why this actually may not close the door on resigning Jason Zucker, as I alluded to in my video and audio episode with Nick Berlanski earlier today. So that's coming up after this break. But before we get to that, we do have to discuss the official sports betting partner of Lockdown, which is Fandle. Take your first swing at betting MLB on Fandle and get 10 times your first bet amount

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I am your host, Hans or Hodes. Follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter and also for penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this your first list and slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. So before the Penguin selected Braden Yeager with the number 14 overall pick, Kyle Dubas made his first official trade as President of Pocky Operations and interim general manager. And it was a good one.

There were so many cries from fans out there. Well, when's Kyle going to do something? There's so many great players being traded slash sign. Look at the devils. Look at the avalanche. Look at the kings. All this stuff. And the funny thing is, where I was seeing all these players get moved,

I was like, of all the players that got sent elsewhere, only Taylor Hall and Ross Colton really peaked my interest. All the other ones, I was kind of like, okay, I can understand why Dubus is not in on some of those guys. But he got his guy today in acquiring forward Riley Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for a third round pick in next year's draft. The funny thing about that, as I discussed with Nick in my shorter video slash audio clip that was posted to the Lockdown Penguins channels earlier today. that pick was the return the Penguins got for the Teddy Bluger trade. So in essence, the Penguins traded Teddy Bluger for Riley Smith. And I think that's a trade that everyone would make 10 out of 10 times. Right?

Right? Yeah, I think I'm right about that one, even though I know I'm wrong about some things. But that's a slam dunk in my eye. Smith, I know he's a bit older and I understand what some people are saying right now, why are they getting older? You have to support the court with some younger players. I get it. But Smith is still kicking.

This isn't a McIle-Graman situation. It isn't a Jeff Carter situation or a Jeff Petrie situation where their play is on the downward trajectory. No. Smith had a very good year for the Golden Knights, 26 goals, 56 points, 14 points in 22 games to help lead the Knights to the Stanley Cup final over the Florida Panthers. he is still a very productive player and you get him for two more years at $5 million per if the penguins do walk away from Jason Zucker and I'll get to that a little bit later

he is a very fine replacement on shorter term that's at least I think what they're thinking is I really like this player you look at his underlying numbers he ranks in the 89th percentile for transition per Andy and Rono's chart that's very very good his offensive underwings are very good if you look at J. Fresh's numbers.

78th percentile for even strength offense, 77th percentile for power play percentage. So if you want to put him on your second power play unit, maybe even the first one, if some of the guys get hurt, that's also an option. And something that I did not talk about with Nick during our hit earlier today was his effect on the penalty kill. This guy can kill penalties.

He ranks in the 80th percentile in terms of penalty killing ability for Jay Fresh's chart. All that data is courtesy of top-down hockey. That is very, very good. And I saw a stat that really puts that into perspective for him. Over the past three seasons, Riley Smith has recorded 1.89 short-handed points per hour. And among 282 players with 200-plus shorthanded minutes, that ranks third in that. the NHL. So almost two points per hour at 4V5 situations. He was also third among Vegas Fords and average short-handed ice time last season. So you are going to see him play in a lot of

situations on the PK. Those stats come courtesy of Danny Shirey from D.K. Pithful Sports. Shout out to him. But that is going to be a massive asset to the Penguins. The PK stunk this year. It did. It was average, well below average. I should actually even say it was average. It was below average. That unit needs to be a lot better next season. And I think you will see Smith add a lot of value to that for this upcoming season and the next season.

Obviously, let's get to the Jason Zucker aspect now. If he does walk and I still think Zucker signs elsewhere, Smith is a good replacement. Now, Dubis and Mike Sullivan. did say today that this trade does not close the door on resigning Zucker and that they are still having conversations with him and his agent. The Penguins right now have less than 72 hours to get a deal done before he gets the open market. But I think this is a deal that's going to have to be done on the Penguins terms, not Zucker's. Zucker has kind of hinted that he wants term on this next deal. If the Penguins were to sign him to say, I'll give you an example here,

four to five years, five million per. I think the penguins are going to have to find a way to move out some more salary because they have other holes to fill. Would it make them a better team? Absolutely. Maybe have Zulker on your second line. Put Riley Smith on your third line. That's awesome.

But at that point, you only have $10.2 million in salary cap space left. If you do get Zulker at $5 million or maybe a little bit less, 4.5, you'll have, well, less than $11 million. I think the math is about $10.7 million. cap space there, but still the point stands you're going to have to move out more salary. It would be fun, but I still think it's more than likely that Zucker walks. Even though, again, I know that Dubis and Sullivan have said that they're still having conversations. It's going to have to be done on Pittsburgh's terms. I personally think Zucker can get

more from another team where he potentially fits a bit better. But this move allows the Penguins to not have to truly break the bank for Zucker, they'll still try to sign him, but they're not going to be like, oh, we need to keep you above all else. Please come back. They'll probably just go to him and be like, hey, we got this player. We know he can replace your minutes on the second line. Here's our offer. If you want to take it, great.

If not, we know you can get a lot of tournament money elsewhere, and we wish you the best of luck. It would obviously sting to see Zucker leave because he was awesome this season, 27 goals a career year, but you also have to factor in, do you think you're going to get that same sort of value from him on a four to five year contract if you sign him? That's another thing you have to take him into consideration. So that's going to be interesting to follow over these next couple of days. Again, if I am a betting man, my friends,

I think Zucker is going to go elsewhere, maybe a reunion with Minnesota, maybe another Western Conference team will approach him, but I just don't see it right now, especially with all the other needs that the penguins have. They still got to figure out their goalie situation. Dubus did say tonight that they're in talks with Jari and just trying to see if they can maybe come to a deal, but time's running out. He's going to become a UFA in less than 72 hours.

Got to figure that situation out. Got to figure out your situation on defense. There's Jeff Petrie rumors, and we're going to get to that in the final second. segment. Brian Dumlin's going to walk. You got to figure a replacement for him. If that's not P.O. Joseph or Ty Smith, you got to go out there and trade for someone or sign someone from free agency. This is, it's crunch time. So as much as I would love to see Zucker return, I think it's more unlikely that he doesn't because the penguins have other needs to fill at this time. And honestly, I think the penguins can get better value out of Smith for two years

at $5 million than they would out of Zucker for a four to five year deal for $5 million per. Again, I would still love to bring him back and it would make the depth that much better, but how much value is he truly going to provide you on a long-term deal? That's the big question. So we'll have to see what happens with that. But A plus trade in my book for Riley Smith. I'm really excited about it. It has a lot of playoff experience.

Can score you 20, 25 a year. Can play on the PK. can play on your second power play unit. I think will be a seamless fit with Evgeny Malkin and potentially either Ricard Raquel or Brian Rust on the second line. I am really excited about it. But that wraps up the second segment for today's episode. Coming up in the final segment, we're going to get into the Jeff Peachy rumor that we saw

earlier in the day on Wednesday and if the Penguins will open up more salary so that they can make some more moves that's coming up right after this. All right. I'm back in this episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. I'm going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes and follow the shows Twitter at Amherst of Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this

your first list since last watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. So on Wednesday morning, Frank Sarvali dropped his newest rumors slash scoops on potential players that could get traded, either today, during the second day of the draft on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and free agency, potentially after that. And he added Jeff Petrie to the list, and he was pretty high up there, of the 50 players. He put him number 12. And he reported that the Penguins had been discussing

a Petri trade on Tuesday, trying to see if they can get out of the contract. He said that the penguins want to get a little bit younger on defense, which makes sense the penguins have a very old group of defense right now outside of P.O. Joseph. Smith, Mark Freeman. Everyone else there's kind of a bit older. I'll put Marcus Pedersen, obviously, in there too. He's a bit on the younger side. But outside of that, a lot of players who have been on the older side.

Chris is saying, of course, is awesome. But you know where I'm going. And he said that he could see the sharks as a potential destination. I'm not really sure if the sharks are on his 15 team, no trade clause. And he also did say that the Penguins could take Capo Cochanan back a shark scully who was below 900 this past season. on a bad team, maybe he could rebound on the Penguins, maybe be a one-beak goaltender, someone like that, but not someone I would want to start 40, 45 games, something like that. But that was the latest from Frank Sorbali, Rob Rossi, then confirmed that the Penguins have indeed

looked into moving on from Petrie with that. There's not a big market for him right now. And that makes sense. He's in his mid-30s. He has two more years left at 6.25 million. Not really sure how many teams are going to take that on, even though the defensive market for free agency is a bit. on the weaker side, but he is still an obvious candidate to be moved to open up more cap space.

If the penguins are dead serious about bringing back Zucker, you have to move someone else out to make the room. Because with all the holes they have in the bottom six and on defense, well, you would only have probably 10 million to spend if you brought Zulker back. And that's just not going to be enough for probably three new forwards for your third and fourth lines. Another defense, a goalie as well. So they need to open up space no matter what. And Petrie is a good candidate for that.

You can get someone cheaper to play on the right side for your second pairing. I don't think he was as bad as some people said he was this past season, but he also wasn't as good as I thought he would be, especially for the money that he's making. $6.125 million. That's one of the highest marks on the team right now. Actually, outside of Cindy Crosby, it is the highest mark on the team. So we'll have to see what happens with that.

the Michael Gremlin situation, obviously looms large. There's still a couple of days left until the buyout period ends. As of right now, there's really been no smoke, excuse me, regarding that, but a trade could also be finalized over these next couple of days if they want to go down that road. Yhab Yon Ruta, who I think could maybe have more of a market than someone like Petrie, two more years left at 2.7.5 million. He's a bit on a little bit on the more younger side, but still a bit older, but he doesn't really do too much for the penguins. I think Chad Rueedo can do exactly what he can, except in a much cheaper cat pit. But I do think the penguins are going to have to move out more salary if they want to make

more moves in general. You still have to go get that goalie. There was a rumor earlier in the day about Linus Allmark potentially going to the penguins. I saw Andrew Filiponi tweeted that out. I could not even find the source of where that rumor started. So I'm just taking that with a grant of salt. that just looks like blind speculation, in my opinion. But wouldn't be surprising if they did go down that road if it gets serious,

if they do decide to have talks with the Bruins. Because I think they would maybe want to keep swimming, even though Allmart just won the Vezna, but you never know. But overall, my friends, you are going to see the penguins open up more space. They have $15 million open right now, $15.2, I should say, $15.2 million. I expect that to grow over the next couple of days. I don't know who's going to go out, but I think they're going to want to have some more salary flexibility

heading into Saturday for free agent frenzy. I don't think the Penguins are going to be super active on that day, though I think they'll just be signing a bunch of players to fill in their bottom six. Maybe they sign a defenseman to replace Brian Dumlin. Obviously, have to figure out what they're doing in goal, but I do expect them to be at least a little bit active, but not, again, as active as some of these other teams are going to be signing six.

seven-year terms or all that stuff. I think you're going to see more trades than for H.C., especially to open up more space. But that'll do it for this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I really appreciate all of you listening slash watching. There's a ton of content to the show today, whether you're listening via audio or via video. I have my thoughts with Nick Berlanski on the Smith trade.

My five-minute audio clip with Gil Martin, breaking down the Brady and Yeager selection. And now a full episode with you guys breaking everything down from today and then going forward with the Penguins. But the grind does not stop. I'm going to have another episode for you all on Thursday discussing the Penguins draft class as a whole. And if any potential moves are made, you'll hear it here first from the Lockdown Penguins

podcast. But again, thank you all so much for tuning in. Very much appreciated it. I'll be back with another episode for you all on Thursday.