Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - The Penguins will officially not have a first-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pittsburgh Penguins will officially not have a first round pick in the 2024 NHL draft, but is it that big of a deal? I'm going to give my thoughts on that right after this. Your Locked-on Penguins, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am one of your hosts, Hunters, Hodes. you can follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes.

Starting point is 00:00:33 You can follow Pat on Twitter at Cinderfrewette, and you can follow the shows Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins, of course. Thank you all so much for making this your first list in slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. And finally, this episode is brought to you by GameTime, down the GameTime app, create an account and use code locked on NHL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. And for those that may not have tuned in to the Thursday edition,

Starting point is 00:01:00 Pat is not here for the Friday edition of the show. He is in Philadelphia with his girlfriend for a wedding this weekend, but don't worry, he will be back on Monday, and together we'll give you all five brand new episodes of the show for next week and in the weeks after. So for today, it's just me that you are stuck with. And getting into the meat of today's episode, the Pittsburgh Penguins will officially not have a first round pick in the 2024 NHL draft because the Carolina Hurricanes lost to the New York Rangers in six games on Thursday night in the second round of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs.

Starting point is 00:01:36 And honestly, the hurricanes lost in heartbreaking fashion. They go down three games to none in that series. They clawed it away back into it, a really nice winning game four. They win that game late in the third period. They then dominate the Rangers in game five. And they're dominating the Rangers for the first 40 to 45 minutes of game six. It's looking very likely that the hurricanes are going to. forced game seven back at Madison Square Garden and put the fear of God into Rangers fans.

Starting point is 00:02:06 But then Chris Kreider happened in the final 15 minutes. And honestly, Frederick Anderson happened as well. Kreider, he gets a natural hatrick. He was great for the Rangers in the final 15 minutes. And yes, Penguins fans, he does not just kill the Penguins. He kills every team in the Metropolitan Division. And with Anderson, he had a really bad game six for the hurricanes. and I think the goaltending position is going to be something that the hurricanes really try to fix this offseason.

Starting point is 00:02:33 I don't think Anderson played all that well in this series against the Rangers. That second goal that he allowed on Thursday night was just a puck that can't go in. It's at the side of the net. You can't allow Kreider to jam that puck in. Heck, even the first goal that he allowed, he was flopping around in his net. He was doing that quite often in the playoffs. But again, that's an area that the hurricanes are really going to have to figure out. out this offseason, but because the hurricanes did not get to the Stanley Cup final, the Penguins

Starting point is 00:03:04 will not have a first round pick in this year's draft. And honestly, am I a little annoyed? Sure, but I really don't think it's that big of a deal. I was more upset at the time of the trade that they didn't get a guaranteed first back, just because I wasn't that big on the trade overall. I mean, I remember saying on the show a couple months ago that I didn't really like that Michael Bunting was kind of the centerpiece of the deal. I thought he was overpaid.

Starting point is 00:03:26 I didn't like the year that he was having with the hurricanes. And then he goes out and is a perfect fit with the penguins. And I expect big things out of him for next year just with the way he and Fgeny Malkin had instant chemistry on the second line. But with the way also prospect Billy Coyvenin ended the season in La Liga overseas in that league, you know, 22 goals, 56 points in 59 games. He is going to make, I think, a major push to make this team out of camp next season. He also had five goals.

Starting point is 00:03:56 13 points in 12 games in the playoffs for his team overseas before coming over to Wilkesbury. I know it was a very small sample size for Wilkesbury against Lehigh Valley in the HL playoffs, but in two games, he had two points. And that goal that he scored was really nice. Sample and said him up for a deflection in front. It was a really nice stick on puck play, excuse me, by Coyvinen. And I'm excited to see what he can do at camp. Was I a little bit annoyed that they didn't get a,

Starting point is 00:04:26 Jackson Blake or a Scott Morrow back in return, sure, but I think that would have also been looking back at it now, the dream return for against. So I think looking back, the Penguins did as well as they could have at this point, especially with the way Bunting played with the way Govindon played overseas with how he looked in Wilkesbury. And then also, Ponomerov. He also came over in the trade. I expect Ponomero to make a push to make this team out of camp, and I do think there is a legit shot that he starts the season in the team's bottom six overall. So I've really come around on the trade over the last couple of months. I mean, I was someone who gave this deal a C minus to a D at the time. I didn't think

Starting point is 00:05:08 Kyle Dubus did that good of a job. I have sensed very much warmed up to the deal. I kind of have it at a B minus right now over. I'm not going to give it a full A, but I think it's squarely in the, okay, I can accept this category to maybe close to good category for the penguins. And I know what people are going to be talking about as well. What does this mean for Jake Gensel returning to the Penguins? What does this mean for Jake Gensel? Well, I'm here to tell you this, people. I think it is very unlikely that Gensel comes back to the Penguins.

Starting point is 00:05:40 I've said that all along on the show. I think if he were to come back, it's unlikely, but if he were to come back, it would be mainly due to loyalty to the penguins and to say, Cindy Crosby, who he had a blast playing for for several seasons with the Penguins. I also think if he came back, he would be coming back at a major discount. You look at the free agent market for this year, my friends. I think it's him in Stephen Stamcoast in terms of forwards that are the two best forwards that are going to hit the market come July 1.

Starting point is 00:06:13 And Gensel, if he does get there and he doesn't re-sign in Carolina, while I think the penguins will try to go after him in free agency, I don't think they're going to be able to outbid some of the other teams because Gensel could and should get a bag in free agency. I do think the hurricanes are going to do all they can to resign him. It makes a lot of sense for him to stay there just because he's everything they've needed and a lot more for quite a while. But I think he could get quite a lot of money.

Starting point is 00:06:47 on the open market. And overall, just going back to the first round pick, too, when I look at this year's draft compared to next year's draft, this year's draft is not nearly as deep as next year's draft. So I'd rather not have a first this year compared to next year. And yeah, I know they're not going to have their own first because that's being given up to San Jose. They finished 14th in the draft lottery.

Starting point is 00:07:11 So that's a pick goes over to the sharks. But that's also still a trade I make. every single day of the week for Eric Carlson. Was he disappointing, excuse me, at times this year? Yeah, I mean, he had his ups and downs, but towards the late stages of the season, you saw him really figure it out. And again, I do think he's going to have a pretty big year for the Penguins in 2024,

Starting point is 00:07:36 2025. And while, yeah, maybe you can argue it's a bit annoying that they didn't get a guaranteed first. I definitely was at a time before I really cooled off on the Gensel trade. I think overall, you look at the rest of that package, it's looking really strong for the Penguins right now. And also, you look at their overall picks for the draft this year. Not one in the first round.

Starting point is 00:08:01 You have two second round picks, none in the third round. You have one in the fourth, none in the fifth, one in the sixth, and then two in the seven. But you still have two top 50 picks in this year's draft. You're not going to get a difference maker for this year or maybe next year, but you could get a difference maker in that second round with at least one of those picks that could impact the team three to four to maybe five years down the line when the core inevitably is not here. So you can still get a pretty decent player with that pick.

Starting point is 00:08:32 It's good that they still have two top 50 picks. I know they don't have the first, but they got two in the top 50. I'll take that for sure. But those are my main thoughts on the Penguins not having a first round pick. And let me know if you've also warned up to the Gensel trade as well. Do you feel better about it right now, even though they're not going to be getting that first round pick in this year's draft? Let me know down the comments. You can also send me a DM on social media and such.

Starting point is 00:08:58 But that'll do it for this first segment. Coming up in the second segment, we're going to continue to talk about the Carolina hurricanes a little bit and an RFA that the Penguins should really try and go after this offseason. But before we get to that, we got to tell you all about our first. sponsor and that is game time. It's the authorized ticket marketplace of the NBA, which makes getting playoff tickets even faster and easier. Prices on the game time map actually go down, the closer it gets to the tip off with killer last minute deals, all in prices of use from

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Starting point is 00:10:30 Of course, Patrick Damp. He's in Philadelphia at a wedding for this weekend, so it's just me for this show. And after Carolina lost on Thursday night, I was listening to 32 thoughts on Friday morning, and Elliot Freeman was discussing the hurricanes and the roster changes that they could make. And I think you could see quite a few changes for the hurricanes. That team reminds me a lot of the late 2000s and early 2010s, San Jose Sharks teams, that just can't get over the hump.

Starting point is 00:10:58 I mean, those Sharks teams were really good, too, but they just never had the horses to get over the hump. and win a Stanley Cup. And you're seeing that right now with the Hurricanes. I also think their quantity over quality style just doesn't fully work in the playoffs. They need to try to do more quality over quantity if they want to win four rounds. And obviously, as I said earlier in the show, they got to figure out their golfending situation as well. But one player that he did discuss that the Hurricanes couldn't move on from was Ford Martin Nages. He is a restricted free agent this all season.

Starting point is 00:11:33 And Freeman said he doesn't think it's going to work out in Carolina. doesn't think they think the hurricanes are going to do what NACIS wants to do with his next contract. You look at the contract that NACS signed just a couple years ago. It was only for a couple years. He was making $3 million per season. And with the year that he just had, 24 goals, 53 points in 77 games, and the year that he had before this one with 28 goals and 71 points, 82 games, he is going to get a pretty

Starting point is 00:11:59 hefty raise on that next contract. I would be stunned if it was lower than $5 million. it's probably going to be 5.5 to 6 million per year and maybe even higher than that. He is a very underrated player in the NHL. And with him being an RFA, this is the exact type of player that I think Kyle Dubus in the front office should prioritize this offseason. A, he's young, 25 years old. Everyone, myself included, wants this team to get younger. Boom, you put someone like that in your lineup.

Starting point is 00:12:32 That's huge. He has speed for days. he's a very quick player on his skates. And he can also bring that goal scoring ability that this lineup really needs. I mean, I know you're going to get quite a few goals from Gennie Malkin every year, you know, 20, 25. Cindy Crosby has shown an ability to score 30 to 35. He's the ageless wonder at this point.

Starting point is 00:12:51 You know what you're going to get. I think from Michael Bunting next year, I would be kind of surprised if he didn't score 20 to 23. I think Drew O'Connor is also going to score over 20 for next season. I think Brian Rust is also going to score 20 to 25. but Martin Nagez has the ability to score at least 25 goals, if not maybe 30 plus in the NHL. He's still only 25 years old. You add him to this lineup.

Starting point is 00:13:14 Boom. This team is really, I think, cooking with gas for next season. There's really three ways the Penguins can get him on the team for next year. Number one, you offer sheet him. And that's something that you really don't see too often in the NHL. In my opinion, I think it's partly due to GMs just not wanting to piss off other GMs, but if I were a GM in the NHL, I really wouldn't give a damn. If I see an opportunity to make my team better, I'm going to do it, even if it means

Starting point is 00:13:42 offer shooting someone and pissing off an opposing general manager. You're just, you're doing your job, I think, overall. But I know you don't see many offer sheets, but that's still an option that the Penguins could do. Number two, trading for his rights, though the Penguins would have to give up something of value to Carolina. They don't have their first for this year. So it would have to be some other pick and maybe a prospect or maybe even a roster player

Starting point is 00:14:03 to make that work. And number three, if Carolina doesn't extend him a qualifying offer before free agency, he becomes a UFA on July 1. But I don't think they're going to come to that position. I think they're going to extend him a qualifying offer and then maybe see what they can recoup in terms of trading his rights away overall. But he has the youth that this team needs. He has the speed that this team needs.

Starting point is 00:14:27 And he has be playmaking ability and the goal scoring ability that this team needs. You can put them on your first line. You can put them on your second line. Heck, you can even put him on your third line. And that's where he was playing with Carolina to end the postseason. He was on a line with Jack Drury, who has turned into a really sound player for the Hurricanes and Jordan Martinook, who I think is also a really underrated depth option in the NHL. He was on wing on the third line.

Starting point is 00:14:52 So in the end, he makes this team deeper, and he brings so many abilities that this team really lacked throughout the season. but also his underlying numbers throughout the season in 77 games. When he was on the ice, the hurricanes had a whopping 58% of the shot attempts. I know that's partly due to how the hurricanes play under Rob Rindamorke, because they throw everything at the net. They don't call them the Carolina courses for no reason. But when you're on the ice for almost 60% of shot attempts,

Starting point is 00:15:24 you're doing something right. Goals, four, goals against, 46, 452 against. I'm not really going to put too much stock into that, considering it was 60 goals, 4, 52 goals against. last year. Also, 55% expected goals for share, really sound number there, 55% of the scoring chances, and about a little over 50% in terms of high danger goals for. High danger chances, almost at 50%, it's about 49.1 overall, but 207.4, 214, 214 against you're really close to 50 at that point. But as underlyings who are really strong throughout this season, again, my friends, if you are

Starting point is 00:16:00 trying to make a big acquisition this summer and you are trying to go all in at least one more time for this upcoming season. At least that's what Kyle Dubus kind of hinted at during his end of media press conference just because he's not really interested in blowing this up. This is the type of player that you go after, someone who I don't really think has reached his full potential yet. Yeah, I know he had that great year in 2022, 2022, 23, what 28 goals, 71 points. But I think he has the ability to score 30 plus in this league. And I think he also has the ability to score 80 to 85 points in this league in the right situation.

Starting point is 00:16:38 That is how high I am on Martin Naceous. And if I am Kyle Dubas in the front office, I am very much looking into him. Very good counting stats, mostly very good underlines. Young player can make sense for both the short term and the long term future of this franchise. And again, even though he's an RFA, there is a way, there's multiple ways for him to be on this roster for next year. So, Kyle Dubus, if you somehow stumble across this episode, try and go after Marty Natchez, especially if what Friedman is saying is true. And that the hurricanes and NACIS might not be able to come to agreement on his next contract. I also should add that NACIS does have arbitration rights for this year as an RFA.

Starting point is 00:17:25 But that will do it for the second segment. know what you think about Martin Natchez down the comments. You can also send me a DM. Do you think Kyle Dubus and the front office should go after him for the Penguins for this season and in future seasons as well. But again, that will do it for this segment. Coming up to end the show, I'm going to give my thoughts on the Stanley Cup playoffs and who I see as still the main favorites overall. I give my thoughts also on the games to come on Friday night and this weekend. But before we get to that, we got to tell you all about our next sponsor. And that is eBay Motors. Passion, drive and praise. The formula for winning championships is also what keeps you to ride or die

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Starting point is 00:18:41 eBay guaranteed fit is only available to US customers. All right, we're back here on this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I am one of your host, Hunter Hodes. And let's get into the Stanley Cup playoffs. Obviously, the New York Rangers, they advanced to the conference final on Thursday night. And I know it's going to be hard for people to pick against them in the conference final. But I will if the Florida Panthers are able to take out the Boston Bruins either tonight in game six or in game seven if the Bruins are able to force game seven back in sunrise. I still think when the Panthers are fully humming, they are the best team in the conference. I will take the Panthers to beat the Rangers, but I think I would take them in seven games of the Rangers.

Starting point is 00:19:25 they showed a lot of guts winning that game. They looked to be down and out in that game. As I said earlier on, it looked like they were putting the fear of God into their entire fan base with the way they played through 40 minutes. The hurricanes were being very stingy in their own zone. But Chris Snyder, that's what a great player does, man. And he was tremendous in that third period. And the hurricanes had no answer for him overall.

Starting point is 00:19:50 Hopefully a team in the conference final will be able to take them out so they don't go to the Stanley Cup final. And speaking of that series, that other Eastern Conference series, Bruins Panthers, I am going to stick with my Panthers in sixth prediction. I think the Panthers are going to be able to take care of business in Boston, but the Bruins might get a big lift tonight.

Starting point is 00:20:08 Brad Marshan is a game time decision. The Bruins have given him a shot to come back. And if he does return, obviously you'd be a big boost. Jeremy Swamen is playing his tail off. And that I still think the Bruins need a little bit more than Posternock in this series if they want to win it, but they're giving Florida everything it can handle and a lot more.

Starting point is 00:20:29 And I also think Matthew Cuchuk, it's time for him to really make his presence felt in this series. I think he's been a little too quiet for the cats in this one. But I do think the cats will win this game. I think they will go on in the conference final take on the Rangers. But no, who knows, I could be dead wrong on that. As for the West, that Vancouver Edmonton series, that game five was tremendous.

Starting point is 00:20:49 And I feel so happy for Canucks fans there on the cusp of seeing their team go to the conference final for the first time since 2011. That was the year that the Canucks got to the Stanley Cup final loss to the Boston Ruins in seven games in very heartbreaking fashion. I know Pat and I, we've kind of joked about the Canucks and how I'm rooting for them. And yes, they're very much a mistress team for me. But just seeing how J.T. Miller became the hero in that game, seeing how Elias Pedersen finally had a good game before the Canucks in the playoffs, seeing how Arthur Shilov played well. It's just a nice, feel-good story,

Starting point is 00:21:26 and how can you not also root for Rick Tocke behind the bench? He's a great coach. He did great work here in Pittsburgh, and they're just a lot of fun to watch over all. They were the much better team in that game against the Oilers, and now the Oilers are up against it. If they want to push this series back to Vancouver,

Starting point is 00:21:43 they need their high-hand talent to be a lot better in game sex. That game five, was the quietest I had ever seen Connor McDavid in a playoff game. The Canucks did an amazing job shutting him down when he had the puck on his stick. He wasn't able to generate much of anything. He played almost 25 minutes in that game, and he's been playing a lot in the playoffs. I was texting with my buddy, Nick Zarras.

Starting point is 00:22:08 We host the Thursday edition of the Lockton on NHL National Show, and he texted McDavid has played over 230 minutes in the Stanley Cup playoffs. so far. He's essentially playing almost half of every game. But he kind of has to just because the Oilers are so top heavy. You look at that forward group, it's a line and a half, maybe two lines, and then not much in their bottom six. So he kind of has to play that much. So I don't know if it's fatigue kicking in for McDavid, but the Canucks did a really good job shutting him down, shutting dry saddle down. Same thing with Zach Hyman and Ryan Neutriott. Hopkins, the underlying star, the McDavid line last night were not pretty at all.

Starting point is 00:22:54 So if they want to send this series back to Vancouver, Oilers need their big guns to play much better in game six. But that series has been great. I wish we could get best of nine, best of 11 in that series. And finally, Dallas, Colorado, the stars were doing a really good job of shutting down McCarren McKinnon for a good chunk of that series. And then game five happened. That type of game from McCarer-McKinnon was two guys looking at everyone and being like, yeah, we're not going home tonight.

Starting point is 00:23:25 We are going to put everyone on our backs and we're going to carry this team to a win. And that's what they did. McCar was tremendous all-game long. McKinnon was great. You saw Casey Middlestat have a really good game and he's been a really great acquisition for the Avalanche since coming over from the Sabres. I kind of saw that as a win-win trade for both teams. and middle stats been really good for the avalanche. Now, the series shifts back to Denver.

Starting point is 00:23:53 I made this comparison to Nick on the national show. I also said it on here a couple of times. This feels very much like Alabama, Georgia, late 2010s, SEC title games. Heck, there's a national championship game in there, I believe, as well, where it's just two heavyweights throwing punches back and forth. And I will say the stars are also quite a bit of fun to watch. That's like the model team that I want to pay.

Starting point is 00:24:17 England's to kind of look at to try and build their teams of the future with the way the stars are built for very deep forward lines. They have a nice mix of speed, skill, physicalness. They got a little bit of toughness in there as well, but they also got some nice, good young kids in there, namely, you know, Stankovin. Wyatt Johnson's obviously been a revelation for the stars. Root Bagan's, though he's, I know he's going to be out for game six. He's been a bit banged up, but he's been great, Jason Robertson, but then he got some of the old guys, the Angel's Wonder, Joe Pavelski, Jamie Ben, Tyler Sagan. It's just a really nice mix of forwards for the stars.

Starting point is 00:24:57 And that's just the type of forward group that I would love the Penguins to get at some point. Again, that's the model that I would want the Penguins to kind of look at for teams in the future. Then defensively, Haskin's great. But they just have a very mobile defensive group overall. Then Ottencher, and that he's been really strong in this series too. but wouldn't be surprised if the avalanche do force the game seven if if the big guns show up again. I picked Colorado and seven just because of their big guns, but with the way they were being shut down for a good chunk of the series, I was a bit nervous after four games.

Starting point is 00:25:32 So then they woke up again in game five. Let's see if they can do that again in game six in Denver. But those are my thoughts on the playoff series so far. Once these series finish up, Pat and I will give our conference final predictions on a future. episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. But that will do it for today's episode of the show. Thank you all so much for taking the time to listen to slash watch this episode. Pat and I will be back with another show for you all on Monday. And then we'll have four other episodes to end the week next week as well. And it will continue to be daily up until free agency in July.

Starting point is 00:26:08 But again, that'll do it for this one. Thank you all so much for tuning in. We'll talk with you all on Monday.

Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - The Penguins will officially not have a first-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft

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