Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Tristan Jarry for the Vezina?

Episode Date: December 1, 2021

The Pittsburgh Penguins played a dreadful game on Monday night but the biggest takeaway was Tristan Jarry. Hunter goes all into that on the first segment as he has started the "Jarry for Vezina" campaign. He does a brief update on his numbers after that game and if there's a shot that this can continue for the rest of the season. He then goes into the shootout and why the Penguins shooters failed. What do they need to do moving forward if a game gets to that point? He also analyzes the play of Sid as he's still not there yet, plus does a small preview for Wednesday's matchup against Edmonton.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.StatHeroStatHero is the first of its kind Daily Fantasy Sports platform where it’s YOU vs. the HOUSE in head to head fantasy matchups - winner take all. Sign up for FREE - RIGHT NOW - at StatHero.com/HOCKEY and use promo code HOCKEY for a One Hundred Percent Deposit Match.Omaha SteaksThe holidays are around the corner and finding the perfect gift is tricky. Omaha Steaks makes it easy to send friends and family an unforgettable gift guaranteed to be loved. Go to Omaha Steaks dot com and enter “NHL” into the search bar to order The Perfect Gift Package Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hey, everyone, and welcome to this late-night Tuesday episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. You're not to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow this show's Twitter at L-O-A-Lens for Penguins.

And, of course, thank you all for making this your first listen of the day. somehow, I mean, you'll probably be listening to this on Wednesday morning and all of another episode coming out that day as well. First off, though, believe it or not, but holidays are right around the corner and finding the perfect gift is tricky. Omaha Steaks makes it easy to send friends and family an unforgettable gift guaranteed to be loved. Go to Omaha Steaks.com and enter NHL into the search bar to order the perfect gift package. To the Pittsburgh Penguins, coming off that two-to-one shootout loss to the Calgary Flames. Leaves, a seven-round shootout loss, a shootout that the Penguins definitely should have won. We're going to get all into that for this episode.

Obviously, the number one takeaway that I have, Tristan Jari, again, he is continuing his ridiculous season. And you know what, peeps? If you're not all aboard the Tristan Jari train, well, you're missing out because it has been something else to watch this year. He is now, if we go to Moneypuck and look at the top goalies and goals. saved above expected. He is fourth. Sergei Babrovsky is 18.6. Jack Campbell has 16.7. Igor Shasturkin at 12.6. Tristanjari, 12.5. He has another outstanding performance against the

Oilers on Wednesday. There is a very high chance that he will overtake. Igor Shasturkin. His safe percentage on unblocked shots is now 965. His expected save percentage on unblock shots, now 953. His overall state percentage for any shots, 938, also has a 1.5%. 0.85 goals against average. His 8 percentage is better than Shosturkin. It's better than Sergey Barovsky. The only one that's in front of Tristan Jari that he's not better than is Jack Campbell at 946.

For Winsbaugh replacement, he is worth 2.09 wins above replacing. That is also one of the best marks for a goalie. I believe that is behind Barbarowski Campbell and Shosturken. You know, he is having, dare I say it, a Vezna. trophy type season. If he keeps this up through the end of the year, he will be a Vesna trophy finalist market and stamp it. I don't think they would take all three of those guys above him. Just because, remember, this is a award that the general managers vote on. So they're a lot different than what some people in the analytics community think, you know, the media, all of that.

I mean, they picked Mark Andre Flurie to win the Vezna this past year where, you know, in my opinion, have given it to Hellabuck, just because he was that good, taking the corpses that were the Winnipeg Jets to the playoffs yet again. But he was the only reason why Pittsburgh even had a 1% chance to win that game. And that's basically what it was. I mean, he was making save after save. There was that big one in overtime where he stretched the glove out and flat out robbed. I think it was Johnny Goodrow.

And I just sat there and basically my jaw dropped. I couldn't believe that he was making that save. I have never seen him do that before at the NHL level. I thought that was going to be on SportsCenter's top 10 the next day. I thought it was going to be talked about for the rest of the season. You know, maybe it will be, but that was just a ridiculous save from Tristan. There's a couple more in overtime. He robbed Goodrow again.

He robbed Backland. He was just all over the place. And he was also awesome in the shootout as well. He was giving the team time and time again a chance. to win with those last three rounds before Backlun was able to get his winner. After Latang tied it, he made three saves in a row, giving the team a chance to end it with the next three shooters, and Pittsburgh just couldn't do it. I mean, eventually, a flame is going to score.

That's just how it is in shootouts. But Jari, he's now stopped eight out of his last 11 shootout attempts. So he's definitely turned that story about him in a completely different direction. and again, if you're not on the Tristanjari train right now, you're missing out because this goalie is flat out unreal right now, and he needs to start to be getting some more Vesna love and some love to make Team Canada at the Olympics, if the league does end up going.

There's a lot of COVID concerns right now with that. I think there's a huge memo that was released to the players in the league today about it. So we'll have to see where that goes. Overall, though, that game was the Tristan Jari game. my other takeaway, what a goal by Jake Gensel to even just tie the game. The Penguins were actually able to score on the power play. And that was the fourth power play goal in the last five games. Believe it or not, the power play is actually starting to heat up a little bit,

which is something that we really haven't had the chance to say a lot this season, just because it's been at the bottom of the league for virtually the entire year. Cib was able to win that face off. It goes to the point. Cib was able to get it back. And then basically flings it to the net. Gensel with an amazing deflection. Markstrom had no chance on it, didn't even see it.

And the game was tied with about seven minutes left, and then Pittsburgh was lucky to get that game to overtime because the flames just outskated them badly to end that third period. And overall, I think the flames were outskating Pittsburgh the entire fucking time. Going on natural statuary to look at these underlying numbers, and yeah, it is a pain to look at a day after because the penguins have not been, dominated like this for the entire season. This was a very big outwire for Pittsburgh. The Penguins only had 32.6% of the shot attempts. The Flames had 67.3. This all comes courtesy

at 5E5. As for scoring chances, the Flames had 72.7% of those leaving only 27% for the Penguins. It gets even worse. At high danger, the Penguins only had four chances for the Flames had 11 and for expected goals for 0.94 for the penguins, 2.87 for the Flames. The fact that that game was one-to-one going into overtime is nothing short of miracle. If we now go to all situations, and it gets even worse here too. 31.7% of the shot attempts for the Penguins compared to 68.2% for the Flames. Now, if we go to scoring chances for, the Flames had 72.2% of those. 27.7% for the penguins.

High danger, the penguins only had four compared to 15 for the flames, and the expected goals for all situations, 3.33 for Calgary 1.11 for Pittsburgh. Just a flat out dominant performance from Calgary. And I've been saying it all year. They've been making me eat a lot of crow. This team is going to be really good throughout the season. They're definitely a Stanley Cup contender right now. I saw this take a lot on Twitter last night.

It's like one of these big teams that's pushing the penguins around and all that. I didn't really get that vibe because the flames were just beating them to every puck. They were very fast. They're very disciplined. I mean, it's kind of a true Daryl Sutter coach team. I know they're a bit boring at time just because that's how Daryl Sutter hockey is, but he also has a lot of talent to work on this team. so I mean, how boring can they really be?

But all of their players have bought into the system. So I'm not surprised that the flames are going to have games like that throughout the year. And, you know, obviously one had to come against the Penguins Pittsburgh. They did not have their legs at an entire time. And the fact that they even had a chance to win that game in a shootout, I'll say it for probably the fourth or fifth time. There's nothing short of a miracle considering how badly they paid. And that just goes to show how awesome Tristan Jari was.

If you go to Moneypuck again and look in the deserved. a wind meter. It was over 80% for the flames compared to below 20% for Pittsburgh. So, yeah, Penguins have to play much better than that against the Oilers on Wednesday. It was awesome that they got a point. Every point is precious at this point. It's still going to be an uphill claim for the Penguins to make the playoffs just because they've played a few more games than a couple other teams in the Metropolitan Division, but they were still able to get at least one point. I know not getting the second one hurts a little bit, but they were still able to get get one. That's better than none.

That'll wrap up this first segment of the show. Coming up in the next segment, we're going to touch on some shootout talk, because I definitely am a little tired of watching the penguin skaters in the shootout. For once, I'm not going to be complaining about Tristan Jari in that skills competition.

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All right, welcome back to this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hoadies. You know to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodeys. follow this show's Twitter at LO underscore Penguins. So last night, you know, obviously I hate the way games are decided with shootouts after the three-on-three.

I've always been a proponent that the league should just do five more minutes of the three-on-three. It's one of the most exciting parts about the sport. I understand some players could be a gasped at the end, but you know what? It's better to decide the game that way

than it is in a freaking skills competition. That said, Trish and Jari did everything he could to give the penguins that win. I mean, he was making save after save in a shootout. I loved Chris LaTang's move. It was that vintage forehand backhand, and he also puts his leg up. He's been doing that for the better part of a decade now, and to see him do it again this year, I think that's the first time he's done that one this year. It never gets old. But after that, for some reason, this team

does not deak on shootout attempts. I mean, you see Sidney Crosby coming in, you know, does his little going out to the left side thing comes in a little bit, but then just tries to snap it five whole, snap a glove side, or, you know, just snap it just right over the pad, and it doesn't work. I mean, it hasn't worked like that for a little while now. I liked Jake Gensel's attempt, even though it looked like it went in at first, but it hit the crossbar and bounced out. But after that, you know, other than Chris Lattang, every attempt was just the player coming in, whether that was Kasparekapin, which I'll get to in a second, Jeff Carter, or even Brock McGinn, and they're just shooting blocker or glove side and it's just like he's it's going into the arm of marksham every time

and you're not making him move that was i think my biggest takeaway from a lot of those attempts i mean markstrom is one of the biggest goalies in the league you want to separate him a bit down low get him to go side to side but almost every attempt that i saw high blow glove to the blocker he's just standing there making the save and you're making it so easy on him where he can just again stand there and not really have to do anything. Did Nick Crosby? He did it on him. Jeff Carter, Casperi Campan. I don't even know what Caponinan's attempt was.

He just came in, tried to basically float it a little over the glove, and missed badly. So I really think the team needs to start doing a bit better with these attempts. Bob Grove had a really interesting stat on his Twitter last night. The Penguins came into this year, 36% all-time in shootouts with their attempts, why. this year the Penguins team they've only converted on 30% of their attempts and they've played in quite a few shootouts this year more than

most of the other teams have so far and the fact that it's only been at 30% that's not good enough. I understand you know shootouts go away in the playoffs it's an idea and a thing that's not really practiced too much at practice in the morning skates anymore and for good reason you don't

see them as much anymore but still I'm kind of tired of watching the players just come in every time and not make the goalie do any work. I mean, I loved Rodriguez's attempt. I'll say that. He had Markstrom beat. I think he got down a little too low, and by then it was just

a little too late, was able to, the puck basically bounced off the side of the net. And if he had gone about a split second sooner, I think he would have sent the Penguins home there with the win. And you could tell that Rodriguez really wanted

that one, because he looked to the heavens full on right after that. I mean, he knew he had Markstrom beat. I even saw it in real time. I know everyone on the message board and Penguins Twitter saw that as well. And it was a good idea to send them out there. You know, he's been one of your

best players this year. He has eight goals. And again, he hadn't beat. He just ran out of real estate. He was not able to pop the game winner right there. But that was just my little mini rant on the Penguins with shoot out of attempts. I would just like to see some more dazzling moves. Obviously, you don't need to be like

the Harlem Globe Trotters over here. and just make every move in the universe. I'm not expecting the players to be Pavel Datsuk like or, you know, Henrik Zenerberg or, you know, a Tomas Hardo kind of goal like we saw in 2014 over Henrik Lundquist where he just did the between the legs move. But at least make the goalie do a little bit of work. So that's really all I have to say on that.

I really, when I was reading Josh Yoey's story on the athletic, so he asked two questions to Mike Sullivan and Sully only gave him back-to-back one-word answers. I did watch that video just going in a different direction now and you could really tell that Sully was pissed. He's not usually that angry after a loss but when Josh asked if there was anything that he was pleased with

during the game outside of Tristan Jari, he flat out told him no. And here's the kicker. when Josh asked for an explanation, Sullivan just was like, nope, there's really no explanation. So I'm sure he gave it to the team in the locker room after. I would expect a much different Penguins team to come out in Edmonton on Wednesday night. You know, Sid's going to be fired up to play against McDavid.

I thought Sid, even though he had a point on the power play, he's still not himself. It's definitely a bit concerning at this point. I understand that he hasn't been, he wasn't in training camp. He's still coming off that wrist surgery in COVID-19. but this is not the same Cindy Crosby that we're used to seeing. So I'm definitely getting a little bit worried, though I'm sure once he does have that big explosion, I'm just going to be looking like a complete fool.

But I'm still a little bit concerned about him right now because we haven't seen that same burst from him just yet. Other couple of things before we get to our next commercial break. So Brian Boyle was injured at some point. He was supposed to be in the lineup, but was a late scratch. Sullivan said that he is day-to-day. Sam Lafferty play. I'm good with never really seeing Sam Lafferty in the lineup ever again. I would play Drew O'Connor over him 100 times out of 100.

He's not a good center in the league. I don't really think he's that good of a player in the league either. He always gets outchance when he's on the ice. He does have a few nice flashes with his skating, but overall he doesn't really contribute much to the team. So if they can just put Drew O'Connor in there for the next one, I would be very happy about that. Also, Brian Burke did speak on the Sportsnet Broad.

for the game. He confirmed that Gino is still not too close to playing. It sounds like he's probably going to be close to another month. He did say that it's great that Gino is back skating with the team, but to say that he's a week or two away, Burke said that would be a bit premature. So that definitely squash is my prediction a bit. I thought that he would potentially be back in two weeks if he's able to practice with the team consistently, but he was a no-show on Tuesday's practice. so that definitely seems to line up with the timing that Burke has for potentially the next month when Gino comes back. Lastly, before we get to this commercial break, I've noticed the bad of Mike Matheson come out the last couple of games. You know, I've said it many times on the pod.

When Mike Mathisson is not doing a lot, that helps a team. But these last couple of games, he's been turnover prone too many times, has made a couple really dumb mistakes. And I saw this on Twitter. remember who tweeted it. I think the person said, Matheson is 98%. What the hell are you doing? And 2% holy crap, what a freaking play.

As you saw that wraparon against Toronto last month. But, you know, he needs to turn his game around a little bit and get back to not really having a lot of people notice him. Because these last couple of games, he's definitely struggled. I think Brian Duman has also struggled. The last couple of games is well after stringing along a couple really good games after his poor start to the season. so we'll have to see what happens with that.

But I think I've talked about this game long enough on this podcast. Coming up in the next time, we're going to do a short little preview for the Penn's Oilers matchup on Wednesday. Before we do that, though, Ben Online has you covered all season with more props, odds, and lines

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Just use our promo code locked on to receive that bonus bet online is the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your favorite sports. That is bet online where the game starts. All right, welcome back to this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. You're going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter at L.O. Ernstford Penguins. So we get Crosby McDavid Part 1 on Wednesday.

That will be on TNT. as well. That will be the nationally televised game. Kenny Albert will be calling that game. You all know, I'm always a big sucker for Kenny Albert. I think he's a lot better than his detractors make him out to be. Now, for the Oilers underlying numbers this year, they haven't been good, but again, they've been getting carried by Drysadle and McDavid. Leon Drysiddle has single-handedly carried my fantasy team to third place, initially with a bunch of my friends, and I am so thankful for it. The Oilers have 49% of the expected goals this year with 48.3 of the actual goals, so they're underwhelming a bit right there, but they have 50.5% of the shot attempts at 5E5. That's decent, but still, it's really not that good. There was a really interesting thread that I saw here

from Adam Gretz on Twitter that really highlighted just how bad the Oilers depth has been. So he basically did a thread comparing all the teams like the 5-on-5 goal differential without the highest cap-hit forwards on the ice. So with Carolina, you know, Aho, Svetichikov, how the team does without those

players, you know, Tampa Bay, Kutjuravins, Damcos, Krosby, Malkin, for the Penguins. So he did this to compare all the top superstars around the league. The Edmonton Oilers, they're not even in the top 10 best goal differential.

without dry saddle, McDavid on the ice. They rank second to last. Without dry saddle and McDavid on the ice, the Oilers only have 11 goals for, 25 goals against. Their goals for percentage is 0.31. So they get caved in on a nightly basis when their two superstars are not out there. That just goes to show how much those two carry them.

And it's really a shame that Ken Holland is so bad with filling out the depth of that roster. You would, he honestly, excuse me, for the stuttering there, he should have the easiest freaking GM job in the league. You have two superstar generational talents, and you're telling me you don't know how to build around them, even though they're making a lot of money. It's just comical at this point.

I mean, you know, sure, Ryan Nugent Hopkins isn't bad. Zach Hyman's fine. Yomotto's fine. But other than that, Who else does this team have that really scares you? Drysadle is Thompson points right now with 40. McDavid is third with 36. It really is just the dynamic duo running the show for them.

The Oilers team shooting percentage on all shot attempts this year, at 4.7% that is definitely not that good to say the least. Though their goals 4 per 60 rate is good at 2.62. Their expected goals 4 per 60 is 2.5. so they're outperforming a bit there, but they're also giving it right back with an expected goals against per 60 rate of 2.5.6. I mean, the Oilers are not good defensively.

When you have Cody CC on your top pair, that's just not going to do you any favors. But this is still going to be a tall task for the Penguins to win this game. It's not going to be as tough as the Calgary one, but overall, I do think Pittsburgh should come out here. Guns are blazing. They're going to be pissed off,

because I'm sure Sullivan said, a lot of them in the locker room after the game, and really grilled them hard during the Tuesday practice. Let's see how it goes, especially with Sid, because he's always fired up to play against Conner. He wants to show the world that he is still one of the three best players in the sport, because he has definitely not played like it so far this year. But that'll do it for this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I hope you all enjoy listening to it. We'll have another episode for you all coming up on Wednesday as we finally kick off the month of December. So,

hope you all have a great rest of your day, and I'll talk to you all soon.