Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Welcome to a wild week...

Episode Date: July 26, 2021

Welcome to free agency and we have a whole lot to unpack in this episode. Hunter first starts off with some fresh Penguins news as Mike Sullivan has been named Team USA"s coach for the Winter Olympics in 2022. What type of team is he likely to build? Can they potentially steal the gold medal from Canada? He also discusses ZAR getting his qualifying offer and what that means going forward. What will his contract likely be? After that, Hunter goes into all of the goalie talk as that is the Penguins No. 1 priority this week. Are they fully interested in Kuemper? Does Mrazek make more sense than Ullmark? What about Braden Holtby? He also discusses Brandon Saad & how great of a fit he would be. What contract would Hunter give him? All that, plus much more on this episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, we're welcome to this Monday afternoon episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins.

Happy free agency week. In less than 48 hours, we will get free agents. can see underway, of course. It's been very quiet with the penguins. There have been a couple of rumors, which I'll get to today, namely hometown hero Brandon Zod. I'll get my thoughts on that. I know I touched on it earlier in the off season, but I'll share some updated thoughts with you all later in this episode. We'll also talk about the Penn's players that they drafted this past weekend in the NHL drafting, get my thoughts on those. Spoiler, you know, I'm not the biggest person with so much knowledge on prospects. I think that's like the least amount, or excuse me, I think that's like the

least thing that I follow when it comes to the NHL as prospects, but I'm still going to share my thoughts on it. But it looks like they've got some pretty decent players with this draft class. We also have some Mike Sullivan news to get to today, as he's been named the coach of Team USA for the 2022 Olympics in Beijing. We'll also talk about Zach Aston Reese and how it looks like he got his qualifying offer. But to start off this show, I guess we will do the Aston Reese thing.

So just actually a couple minutes before I started recording, Frank Cerebe. who of course leaked the entire expansion team from the Daily Faceoff hockey. That's where he works. He tweeted out that the pens will be qualifying Zach Ashton Reese today. He touched on it last night that he had heard that they had made it. It may not qualify him, which would have made no sense, I think, in my opinion. But they are giving him his qualifying offer. What's going to happen next in case anyone is not aware?

He's likely going to decline it. I do not think he's going to accept that qualifying offer. I know it's not much, but he's also. worth a bit more than that. He's probably going to be seeking a multi-year deal. If I had to guess right now, he'll probably get a two-to-three-year deal with Pittsburgh for around $2 million per. Jason, obviously, from Penguin, sort of was talking to me this morning about what that

contract could look like. He thinks that his agent could be asking for more because he almost had a 10-goal season in his offense this year was just much better than it was last year. But again, it's not going to be $2.5 to $3 million or something, I think at most. It's $2.3 million. But this is a contract that should hopefully get done by the time free agency rolls around on Wednesday. So Pittsburgh will know how much cap space they'll truly have to spend on the goaltender and then maybe a left winger, which of course they need, et cetera, et cetera. But I'm not really sure when that's expected to be done, but still news that they are qualifying.

We're waiting for any day now for when they're going to sign Aston Wries to an extension. getting to the next little bit of news for Pittsburgh. Congratulations to Mike Sullivan on being named the head coach of Team USA at the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. This is so well deserved by him. He is a top five coach in hockey, the best American-born coach in the league right now. And if he somehow leads Team USA to gold, I know beating Team Canada is a very tall task whenever any of the players go over, that would I think cement him is. one of the greatest coaches in American history.

I know he's probably almost up there already, but I think it would definitely cement it as a top three coach in American history if Sullivan is able to win the gold medal there. And again, you know, I don't actually have to root against my home country this time because in 2016, when they had the World Cup of Hockey, you know, obviously I didn't really watch the 2018 Olympics because I don't need to watch a team full of Troy Tarries and a bunch of other players. But, you know, back in 2016, when the U.S.

say the management they had the World Cup of hockey. They went for these grind guy players putting Brandon Dubinsky on there. Eric Johnson, you know, over the likes of Phil Kessel. I mean, did T.J. O'Shee even make the team? There are so many other really good

skilled players that didn't make it either. But I think with Sullivan now being the head coach, he's going to lobby for having a fast, skilled, but mobile team. You're going to see the best players in this country at this competition. You're not going to, you're not going to to see Brandon Dubinsky on there. You're not going to see Eric Johnson or Jack Johnson or all these

these other grind guy kind of players. You're going to see Chuck brothers. You're going to see Austin Matthews. Jake Gensel is 100% of lock for this. You'll see Patrick Kane. Maybe you'll see Joe Pavelski. I think you'd see John Gibson in net. Probably Seth Jones, I would think, as well on the back end. Maybe Zach Werenski. I'm sure T.J. Oshie is going to make this team as well. but there's so many really freaking good USA-born players that will make this team in 2022. And I'm going to be curious to see how Sullivan does with this group of players. Obviously, they're going to be a very tough out in whatever group they go into. I don't think they're going to be able to beat Team Canada because they can just roll McDavid and Crosby at a one-two punch.

And, you know, John Tavares, Jonathan Taves, if he's healthy. And basically every other freaking elite player in the NHL on their team to basically make them unstoppable. But again, you know, this is Mike Sullivan. Sullivan's moment. Congratulations to him. This has been a long time coming, and in my opinion, he was the only logical choice to be the coach of Team USA in the Winter Olympics. So again, congratulations to him on that. Also, Mike DeFabo is reporting right as I'm recording this, that they've also extended a qualifying offer to redeem Sohorna. That's going to be a very cheap deal in case anyone was wondering. I think that's going to be maybe a one to two-year deal,

700K, two-way deal. I don't know if he's going to make the team out of camp. I don't think they would do a one-way deal for Zohorna. I liked him when he played, but they're going to want flexibility to send him down to Wilkesbury when they inevitably make changes to the team, whether that's in free agency or via a trade. So I would assume that's going to be a one or two-year deal, a two-way deal also with around 700K. I think that's the contract that they will come to. Also, the Pittsburgh Penguins just announced on the official Twitter account, Mark Jankowski, Sam Miletek, Emil Alarming, Jasper Lindgren, did not receive qualifying offers, and they will all become UFAs on Wednesday.

So, yes, that puts the end to the Mark Jangelski era in Pittsburgh, mercifully, because he was obviously so bad. Sam Mile Tech, I mean, he came up, what, a couple times? I'm sure he'll get a two-way deal on Free Agency. Me alarming, I'm sure he'll get a two-way deal with a team. Yes, for Lindgren, the same. But still, good news that they both extended qualifying offers to Aston Reese and Zahorna, and I would expect those contracts to be wrapped up, hopefully within the next couple of days,

but definitely I think within the next week or two. Other than that, there's nothing dire right now with Penguins' news, though I expect we are going to get some big Penn's news, I would say. Within the next day or two, I'm Rob Rossi and Josh Yewie over the weekend report that Pittsburgh has up their pursuit for a goalie. There's been a lot of Darcy Kemper talk. I am on board to trade for him. I think Arizona would have to eat some cap space.

I'm probably going to go a little more into that coming up. the next segment, but he would definitely, I think, be a huge upgrade over Tristan Jari. And yes, I understand a lot of Jensers are saying, well, you know, what about the injury problems? And yes, I get it, you know. There definitely are some injury concerns this past season, only played 27 games. His goal save above expected was minus point two. So definitely a rim for improvement. But if you go back to last season, again, when he was hurt, but he played much better,

he had 7.7 goals saved above expected according to MoneyPock. also got some much better stats for you as well. So his save percentage on unblocked shots for the 2020 regular season, 960. His expected save percentage on unblocked shots, 9.56 that season. His say percentage on shots on goal, 927, his goals against was 2.26. He had a 0.26 goals against average better than expected. It was worth 1.28 wins above replacement. So this is a goalie who is really freaking good when healthy.

he only has a year left on his contract, but you deal with that after it's expired. I know that the price sounds like it's really high right now, but this is a player that Pittsburgh should be going after if they want to upgrade the goaltending position. You do not want to go after someone such as a Jonathan Quick who is still signed to that awful contract. He's not good anymore. I'm going to talk about Braden Holby coming up in the next segment as well as a few other goalie options because it sounds like the goalie market is really starting to heat up.

And I'm also going to continue talking about Kemper as well. So I'm all for it if they want to trade for him. But it'll all depend on if Ron Hextall wants to pay the price that Arizona is asking. I've also been told through just a couple little birdies. Chad also said this on Penguins Twitter today. And, you know, guys, you all know me. Have you been listening to this podcast for a long time? I don't claim to be the biggest Penguins insider.

I don't have all this intel and whatnot. But I can tell you from talking to a couple people that they definitely, are interested in him. And Chad, no one from the 4-1-2 sports talk with DK Pittsburgh Sports also confirmed that on Twitter today that he's talked with someone as well who confirmed that they do have interest in Kemper and hoping to get him. So this is very real. We'll just have to see if Pittsburgh can somehow lock it down and get a trade for Kemper.

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This is going to be really fascinating to watch, I think. We've already touched on Darcy Kemper again. I'll just, I'll reiterate what I said. I mean, his stats are really good. I think for trade options, this is your number one target. I've seen people throw around Braden Holpey and, you know, how this could be. And yes, I understand it will be hilarious if Pittsburgh got him considering what he did with Washington and leaving them to this family cup and how Capitals fans have a very big emotional attachment to him.

And then they would have to root against him for like a year or two. Yes, that will be funny. Big time chaos. But also everyone, Braden Holpey is. is not that good anymore. This is now two consecutive seasons that he has been below average. They're trying to buy him. Well, they're trying to trade him the Vancouver Canucks that is before buying him out.

But this past season only played in 21 games, seven wins, 889 say percentage. That is the lowest of his career. And his last season with the Capitals when he was, he played 48 games, went 25, 14, and 6, but only finished with an 897 say percentage in a 3.11 goals against. average. I think his goal saved above average was minus, I think, 16.8 that season. This year it was minus 13.0. So just flat out horrible.

I would not touch Bradenholpey at all. He's probably one of the worst options for Pittsburgh. Again, Jonathan Quick, just say no on that. But if penguins do tip their toes into the free agent market, I think a really good one that sounds like it's not going back to Carolina. and Rob Rossi and Josh Yo, he touched on it in their article over the weekend, is Peter Marazik. This past season, if you look at the numbers played in, I think, 12 games in the regular season. His goal save above expected was 7.1. His save percentage on unblocked shots, 957.

His expected save percentage on unblocked shots was 9.54, so he outdid his expected save percentage. And then his save percentage for shots on goal was 923. So that's a lot better than Tristan Jari. His goals against was 2.12. This is a goalie who he's just, he's always been steady, I thought, throughout his career. You know, during 2020, started 40 games. His goal save above expected was a bit lower at minus 2.7. His same percentage with shots on goal was at 904.

But again, he really followed that up with a much stronger season this past season. With a 923 save percentage with shots on goal. and then a 7.1 goal save above expected. So you can probably get him for cheap. I would say a one to two-year deal. He's not going to be looking to break the bank, I don't think, maybe below a few million, if that. He's definitely high on my list.

Elliot Freeman also talked about in his Quicky blog last night. What is the lineup, or what is the market for Linus Olmark? He is another option that I've really liked. If I can go to MoneyPuck here, His goal save above expected was not that good this last year at minus 3.6, but you know, he also played on a pretty bad Buffalo team. But his save percentage on shots on goal was 917. His save percentage on unblocked shots was 9.52. So this is a goaltender that I think played a lot better than some of his stats indicated, especially his goals saved above expecter.

I think if you put him in front of a much better defense's course and a much better Florida group, he would blow that. right out of the water. There's also Auntie Ranta, who I've talked about as well. I don't know how much interest there is from the penguin's side with that. He's actually going to be a UFA, unlike Kemper, but it sounds like Carolina could be potentially taking a run at him because he had a decent season with the coyotes, and they're also probably going to go a little cheaper

because their owner just likes to go full bob nutting for the sake of going full bob nutting. I really don't understand it. I know some people are probably going to ask me, you know, what about Philip Grubauer? What about Philip Grubauer with the Colorado Avalanche? Everyone, he's not going to come to Pittsburgh. According to Elliot Friedman, he wants close to a six times six deal.

The Penguins just do not have the cap of space to pay him, nor should they ever give a goalie that much money unless it's for a prime carry price or a prime Henrik Lundglis, or of course, you know, what they did with Mark Andre Fleur. You know, I would have given him maybe that kind of deal back when he was well in his prime. But, you know, Philip Grubauer, that's just, that's a mistake waiting to happen, I think, in my opinion for any team that signs a thing. even though he was a Vezna nominee this year.

And I think that's basically it when it comes to goalies. Again, I think if I had to rank in tiers, my top three, Darcy Kemper, Linus Olmark and Peter Marozic, my bottom. My second tier, I think, Frederick Anderson, Antirontah, Martin Jones, I guess, closer to the bottom of tier two than in tier three, Jonathan Quick, Braden Holpey, and a lot of the other goalies that are hitting the market this summer as well. So those are my thoughts on that. Coming up in the next segment, we are going to touch on the Brain and Sod Talk from Elliot Friedman's blog

and what I think the contract will look like for him, plus what I would pay him if I were the Penguins, because this signing makes all the sense in the world. But before we do get to that, it is time to talk about. Bet Online, the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your sports action. Baseball season is in full swing, and you can track all the action at Bet Online. I mean, my nationals are getting ready to sell, so I'm sure there's going to be a lot of live bets when it comes to who or where Max Scherzer is going to go. Before the next pitch, head over to bed online on your laptop or mobile device

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the shows Twitter at L-O-N-Sore Penguins. So last night in Elliot Freeman's little quickie blog from what he's been hearing going into free agency, you know, he puts some predictions for where he thinks some players are going to go, and he listed four teams when it comes to hometown boy Brandon Sond. It was the New York Islanders, the Los Angeles Kings, the St. Louis Blues, and the Pittsburgh Penguins. And I understand this will make a lot of users go crazy if the team is able to sign Brandon Sott.

And again, this does make a lot of sense. you could do a whole lot worse than signing someone such as Brandon Zod to replace Jared McCann. I tweeted about this last night on my Twitter account. You know, if you go to evolving hockey and you look at the underlying numbers, his actual goals for per 60 was a little over one. I know McCann's was well over two, but, you know, expected goals for per 60. Sads was actually higher than McCann for chances for per 60. Saad's is better.

I'm sure McCann had the better expected goals against per 60. and the chances against per 60. But these two players are very similar. And again, I also saw this as well. I know he shot 22% last season. That's probably going to come down. This year, I mean, you're not going to be a career 22% shooter. I mean, that's just basically not going to happen at this point.

But here's the bottom line here, folks. The Penguins have a need for a pure left winger on this team. You cannot think going into next season that you can fill both Brandon and Tanna and Jared McCann's roles internally. They just don't have the prospects in their minor league and farm system that can come up and fill them adequately. I mean, that's just, that's not going to happen. They have to look outside the organization,

and SOT is a perfect candidate to come in here and help the team for several years. And, you know, I know a lot of people will be scared about term when it comes to SOD. In my opinion, this is what my contract would be if I were looking at SOD. 40 years, 4 to 4.2 million per. You know, Jeff from the Pensbogg pointed out this morning, and I agree with him,

you know, if you only can use him for two to three years and say the team is really bad after three years of that contract, and they're probably going to sell going into the deadline, you can just dump him in his full salary or even eat just a little bit of it because teams would line up to get a player like him just because he's won the Stanley Cup a couple times. He's a little bit of a hard-nosed player, goes to the, dirty areas to score goals. And he's just an all-around good player. So you can definitely, you would definitely get something for him at the deadline if the

team ever does become bad towards the end of Cindy Crosby and of getting Malkin's tenure. I know evolving hockey has him projected at four times 4.9. I think 4.9 is a bit high. I think what Saad is going to be looking for is five times five. So five years, 25 million. That's too much for me. I don't think I would pay that if I were the penguins.

But again, if they're going to give him a four-year term, $4 million per, $4.1 million per, I think the team should be all over that. And again, everyone, if the team is not good after year three, they can just dump him in the offseason or dump him at the trade deadline. And they could get a pretty decent return for him, I would think. He's going to be 32 to 33 towards the end of that deal. Teams would line up to take him, I think, with everything that he has done for his career. So signing up for Saad to come home to Pittsburgh. We'll have to see what happens as free agents.

seat gets closer on Wednesday. But in terms of replacing McCann, you could do a lot worse than this, and I am fully on board with bringing home Saad to Pittsburgh. But, you know, I also will say, again, Tomas Tatar, it's a better option. He has better underlying numbers than Saad. You can stick him on the left wing. I think he could come cheap as well. So we'll have to see if the penguins do have interest in him.

There's also a player that I did see that was just not qualified by the Chicago Blackhawks, and it makes no sense. And that is Pious Souter. So he had a rookie season with the game. the Blackhawks this past year, was only 24 and had 14 goals, 27 points in the 55 games. If you look at his Windsor Blueprint placement, you know, just looking at Jayfresh's stuff, 77%, 75% for even-strike offense, 80% for even-strike defense, finishing ability, 67% goals per 60, 78%.

He only made 900K against the cap. He's definitely not going to be making that next season, but if you could, sign him for a multi-year deal for 2 to 2.1 million per or something like that. That makes a lot of sense for a Brandon Tanna replacement because, of course, they'll be looking to fill his role since he left for the Seattle Cracken and the expansion draft. I understand the team is probably going to re-sign Freddie Goodrow. But even with that, I still think they have a need for another bottom six forward. I think Souter fits that mold perfectly.

And if I were Pittsburgh and Ron Hextall, I would be all over that because I cannot believe that the Chicago Blackhawks did not give them a qualifying offer. They can't do anything right right now, even when it comes to actual hockey decisions, because we all know what's going on with them off the ice. That is just a rotten organization and franchise right now. They are just an absolute freaking mess. It didn't hell matters when they just embarrassed themselves with the NHL draft when they trotted out those eight women to select the pick.

I mean, that was just so phony. It was cringe-worthy. They're not reading the room at all. and it felt so forced as well. I mean, we all know what happened with the Montreal Canadiens this weekend with drafting Logan Mayu. I guess I'll honestly just end the show with my thoughts on that. I mean, it was just disgraceful, it's disgusting, it's whatever bad word you want to call it.

The fact that the NHL does not have an opt-out for any player with NHL draft is also absolutely pathetic. If they had that, this potentially could not have happened in the first place. But again, you know, I'm just, I'm tired of hockey culture being so freaking backwards. You know, oh, just because you're a good player, we'll draft you even though you committed a sex crime. And it's just like, I mean, what are we doing here? I mean, the guy literally said he did not want to be drafted because he did not deserve to be drafted. And then Mark Bergenman has the audacity who, hint, hint, of course, was involved in the Chicago Blackhawk

sexual assault scandal because he was with the team at the time when those incidents reported but did nothing about it. Of course, he's the one to make the selection. And he also said, in the that they were proud to make this election. It's like, yeah, dude. Like, way to read the freaking room and just make a complete idiot of yourself. And again, everyone, I'm just, I'm so tired of hockey culture being so backwards. It was absolutely disgusting to see that. The NHEL just needs to adopt a no tolerance policy when it comes to this stuff.

These players, even though they can say that they don't want to be drafted, they shouldn't even be in the discussion to get drafted anyway. I think they should be ineligible, in my opinion. And again, they also need to have an opt-out date for when players can actually not be drafted at all rather than saying they just don't want to be drafted, even though their name is still in the NHL draft registry. But again, you know, just shame on the Montreal Canadians for doing that. And I'm sure they're going to be all over the Tony DiAngelo and the Jake for Tannen sweepstakes this summer considering how shitty both of those humans are as well. But again, that'll do it for this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm sorry for ending in on a little bit of a sour note.

I'm just really sick and tired of hockey culture in the way that it's just it's not getting any better at this point. We'll have another episode tomorrow. We'll see if the Penguins will do something leaning up to free agency. Keep it right here on Locked on Penguins. I know you won't want to miss what happens this week. It's going to be busy. You know, it's silly season. Let's see what the team does to improve themselves going into next year.

And I'll have everything covered for you all all week long on the Lockdown Penguins podcast. So I'll talk to you all later.