Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - What does a Jake Guentzel contract extension look like?

Episode Date: August 13, 2022

Happy Friday. Yes, it's now mid-August but the content NEVER sleeps. (I also apologize for the meh audio today, the mic spazzed out for some reason). Hunter starts the show by discussing what a contract extension looks like for Jake Guentzel. Yes, he's still two years away from becoming a UFA but that will fly by. He looks at Filip Forsberg as a comp since they're right around the same age (though Forsberg came into the league a bit quicker than Guentzel did. He gives his rough estimate of what the Penguins would likely pay him, and he tries to give a number that the Penguins could refuse (it would be very hard for them to do that). He also does point out the risk in those sorts of deals before pivoting to Johan Larsson leaving for Sweden. Hunter touches on why a deal with the Penguins was likely nixed before looking up Larsson's numbers and being confused as to how no team wanted to give him anything. Finally, Hunter ends the show by catching up with a few Penguin players playing in "Da Beauty League" in Minnesota as it's a summer league for a great cause. All that, plus much more, on this episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What is up, Penguin fans? Happy August 12th. Well, happy Friday. I mean, I should say today is August 12th. We are again just about halfway through August the worst month for this forge because everything is, again, at a complete and understand still. But for today's show, have some good topics to discuss. We're going to get into what a potential contract extension looks like for Jake Gensel. I almost forgot. He only has two more years left on his contract of $6 million. I don't think they're going to extend it this year. But after this season, I definitely think an extension could be in the cards for Jacob to get into what I would probably give him what a nice comp would be for him to looking into the end of the numbers. We'll also get into a penguin's target, Johan Morrison, finding overseas and how it's kind of ridiculous that no team would want him with his really good defensive impacts. And we'll finish off the show with some news and notes around the week.

So that's all coming up right after this run. You're locked on penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hummer Hodes. You're going to follow me on Twitter at Humbergobies.

You can also follow the show's Twitter at L-O-Rospo penguins. And, of course, thank you all so much for making this show first listening of the day. So let's jump right on into it. So I saw this topic on Twitter, I was scrolling this morning. I thought it would be one good podcast topic. It was a Penguins account. And the person asked, you know, how much would be too much for Jake Ensel for his contract coming up? For those that don't follow me on Twitter, you know, I put all, I put, you know, what I would give him on there, where I would kind of stop at this point.

But yeah, I mean, that negotiation is going to come up really quick. You only had this year. and next year, and then he's a USA. And, you know, he makes it there. He's going to get paid. He's only going to be 29 to 30 at that time anyway. You know, the Penguins will have to be careful with that contract because, you know, those kind of deals, you know,

that go well into your 30s, you know, they, a lot of them, I think, age pretty poorly. I don't know if Jake is going to be one of those players just because he's so freaking good. But there's always a lot of risk involved. with that kind of deal. And, you know, Jake was incredible again this year, you know, 40 goals for the second time in his Penguins career.

He's the only other player in the Cigino Ayr to have multiple seasons of 40 or more goals. If he has 35 to 40 goals this year and the next year, I think he can push for $9 million per either from the Penguins or on the open market. If you were to ask me right now, I think anywhere eight times, eight, eight times eight point five would be pretty fair. Basically the Philip Foresburg con. Foresburg, another very underrated goal score in this league.

Remember, you know, him and Jake, you know, they kind of came into the league, you know, close to the same time. Well, I shouldn't say that. They're the same age, but Foresburg came in a little earlier just because, you know, the pedigree and the hype around him was obviously a bit more than Jake. I don't think anyone expected Jake to be as good, if not better, than Hill at Forrestworth. But, you know, they both had pretty similar production, you know, ever since, you know, both came into the league. And I do think Jake is going to be looking at that deal and be like, okay, you know, this is probably the baseline of what I can get.

But if I can produce even more, you know, what's to stop me from getting over what Forrestburg got. and you know in my opinion I would probably even go eight times nine right now more than nine I think that's a little much

at least in this point I don't think he's going to push for 10 million per person like I think the 10 million per players are you know that that's only for the elite elite players in this league I think Jake is great

I think he is one of the elite goalsports in the play but I don't I'm not going to sit here and say that he is you know one of the 10 best skaters in the lead that should be getting over $10 million. I think that will be, I'm going to say to say, I think I would look a little too biased.

Part of my job here is to, be objective as I can with regards to the payments on this podcast. You know, definitely has the opportunity to be at a point for game pace these next couple of years. I mean, you know, this past year, 84 points in 76 games, the year before that, 57.0.56 games. 43 points and 39 games.

So three years in a row now, he's been, um at or just a little actually no yeah three years in road i he's been over a year before that 20 to 19 we hit 40 for the first time 76 all 76 points 82 games um low under a point for game pace but still you know four elite seasons in the n hl and you know it's he's he will get a boatload of cash whenever that is i mean it's it is the penguins have him on a market right now. I don't think that can be stressed. If he were to hit the open market, say Brian Rust and Jake Gensel switchplay, say it was Jake that was hitting the market this year, right after he did what he did, oh, there would have been teams lining up to get their hands

on. I think the Penguins probably would have had it extended before the USA market opened up. And by the way, it would have been. a little bit harder to keep him, him, Latang, and Malkin all together with the capital. Even with Malkin, Lainte taking much money, I do think it would have been a bit harder. But, you know, Jake, you know, he easily would have gotten from the penguins this year, you know, 8 times, 8 times 8.5, probably a little higher. He honestly probably could have asked for nine if he wanted to. If he repeats this production of two years down the line, he might have. ask for more than 90. I'm just, I'm not, you know, super crazy about that. And, you know,

I'm just, I'm worried that because, you know, players get into the 30s, you know, they start to go down on it. You know, maybe, you know, he's going to age gracefully like it, you know, but maybe he's stable more healthy. Like I said, he was just crazy with his work ethic and stuff, Crystal Tang. Maybe he'll age like them, but, you know, the chance, you know, but there's also excited that we're, you know, you don't really know if he's going to really age like that. But you know, you look at the numbers

this season from Jake, you know, when he's on ice to ping him to have 54% of the shot of 10s, 57% of the goals, 53% of the expected goals, 55% of scoring chances,

54% of high danger chances, just elite level numbers. I mean, you know, I said it so many times on this show that he's a top five goal score in this league. You know, he's a top 10 goals

in this league, but probably doesn't know what they're talking about. But, you know, I think, you know, top five is definitely in play with what he has done the last four season in the league. So I don't think you're going to see anything on the extension front this year. I think Hecht's going to, you know, keep it quiet with that. But after this season, especially if you guys another good year,

could really see Lon trying to open up contract talks with Jake and be like, hey, you know, you're a year away. How do you feel? Where do you stand? Do you want to stay here for the rest of your career? Because once you time this contract, you know, you'll be at the end of it, 37, 38, you know, you'll be close to 40. So that's, I think, going to be the big question. Will he actually want to go and test the market and see, you know, what he could get from other teams? You know, from all indications, he seems very happy here. I don't think he would want to do that, but, you know, some time as players, you know,

when they have a chance to do it for the only time in their career that they can, you know they want to do it like like Johnny Goodrow and I'm not comparing goodrow and get those two players but you know Johnny you know he owed it to himself to test the market you had a great offer from Calgary decided to go closer home to play with the Woojacked you know John Tavares had I think a pretty good offer from the New York Islanders took some other offers from teams when he got to free agency went home to Toronto you know sometimes you know players they just want to do that and try to just you know see what

agency is all about at least once in their career So, you know, at the end of the day, you know, it's still a couple years out in line. But, you know, it's something to think about, you know, it's, again, it's pretty nuts that Jake is only making $6 million for the next year, especially after what we've done throughout his career. He is criminally underpaid right now, and that is going to change. But, you know, I think the Penguins, they should have the caps least available in the next couple of years to pay Jake. Kauffington comes off that same year, Jeff Carver comes off at the same year, Zoker comes off next year, Lover comes off next year, Hinen, Rerner. Chabald, Brian Gulen comes off next year. Tristan Jarre is a UFA, but no, he might get extended. And then Roodle comes off in 2024, 2028, Mark Freeman, and then Casey to Smith as well.

So the penguins, you know, despite them, always being up against the out of the cap. They will have this base, I think, to pay him. And I'm sure they will probably be able to remove a contract with you to a new thing. I don't think the flat cap is going to be that big of an issue. At that time, I personally think the cap will have gone up in the next couple of years. obviously we're all really feeling it right now because everything has gone to a sand dill. But, you know, I think they will go have more space to pay Jake at that point in time. So that wraps up this first segment.

Let me know what you all think. Do you think that Penguins should get more aggressive than trying to pay Jake right now? Or do you think they should, you know, wait until the end of the season and then try to negotiate a contract? And if you think that, what do you think he should get? from the payment I think that's you know that's how we probably going to have maybe some difference of opinion from some people but would love to know what you all think with regards to a Jake extension coming up in the second segment when they get into the Johan Larson stuff and why it's kind of ridiculous that he is not finding with any antel team

namely the penguins who were of course linked to him on that news came in on Wednesday I just did not have a chance to get to it after yesterday's episode but before I get to that Ben-on-line is the fastest and easiest way to check in all of your bed and needs. Can you find all of your favorite sports and events? I have the number one online source for Ogg-L-Bienes. You can find reviews and news from every week, including MLB, NFL, NBA, and H&HL combat sports, e-sports, and youthsports. Ben-Wine continues to be the top online resource for all your sports-vages information

from live and game betting, sports, and podcasts. They all have you covered. You can head to the bed online today or use your phone to enroll with a chance of action. That is done online where the game starts. All right. I'm back on this episode. of the Lockdown Penguins podcast i'm your host homoer hodysman will phone me on twitter pommar hodys and also follow the shows twitter at l oresquark pangans so just the other

days it was on wednesday that we got we got the news that johan marston is going to not be signing um in a nashel he actually signed um with um in sweden um it's going to be playing overseas um next year and the fact that he did not, you know, sign any deal with the NHF, with the NHL team, like, no, at the time with the Penguins, well, or any initial team, I think, is how I wanted to say it, is almost criminal, honestly. You know, he is one of the best defensive forwards, you know, in the league. If I can just, you know, I'm just going to pull the numbers here.

I know I talked about this a few weeks ago when he was linked to the Penguins. But, you know, it's pretty crazy that no one wanted him. And, yeah, you know, the Penguins, I know they would not really have this face right now. I still think they maybe would have had, you know, a chance to make a deal if they signed him. But, you know, if you add Johann Murson to their bottom six right now, that looks a little more formidable. You know, again, you can have, you would have had Jake Gensel, Siddy, Crosby, Brian Ross in the top line. You know, Jason Zucker, Rickard, Rattel, and if heaney, Lumpin, the second line, Jeff Carter on your third line with Gantinine and maybe it gets very

Caputin and then you know Johann Larson Teddy Bluger you know some makes of Ryan Paling Brock McGinn you know your forward depth is looking that much better I think at that point you know there would be I think some really serious battles in the bottom six I think Lawson one of those battles but I think he would have made the board group you know that much deeper you know you look at his numbers from this you know when he was in Washington, he played 14 games.

He was on the ice. Capitals had 55% of the shot attempts, about 50% of the actual goals, 57% of the swing chances, 61% of the high danger chances, and then 50% of a high danger goals. Very good numbers. He was traded for at the deadline for a pick. It's crazy that he could not ink out any sort of deal with an actual team.

It doesn't really make any sense to me at all, to be honest with you all. but you know he's going overseas um again you know from what I was told um I think he was going to be signed um have the Penguins move Teddy Blugher in the original offer for Jeff Petrie you know remember you know it was supposed to be Pedersen and Blugher for Petrie Montreal said no from what I was told they wanted Matheson they said the only way this was going to work is if you move Matheson in the deal one hexstall didn't want to do it you wanted to keep mavison on the team i imagine he probably wanted a matheson peterie second

hearing or you know something like or or you know maybe matteson on the third panel of travoltaire i don't know he wanted all all three of latin madison and petri to stay on the team but you know sometimes you know you can't always get what you want to do so um that um that you know matt mass ended up being in the deal and the penguins after they made some moves you know they They were not able to make it work. And I think that's where it fell through. I'll never forget, Danny Shari of D.K. Pittsburgh's store. Shout to him.

I asked the question at the press conference. And it's like, is there any truth before that you signed Johann Larson and heck's all just like scoffed on them? Just like, how in the heck did that get out? And that's obviously anything from the archibald with any of the thing. would have not. Larson, you know, I would love to, you know, sit down with Elliot at one point and just talk about, you know, just how, why did it, you know, is that the full reasons, you know,

blue groups in the trade, that's that white, both groups are trying to make him their fourth point center or, you know, do they realize that just, they just didn't want him on anymore? But again, you know, it definitely thinks that he's not going to be in the payments. I know some of you all had questions in IPMs and on the YouTube page and all that. Well, there you go. Not going to be signing with the team playing overseas. next year and you know that's it it would have been a really nice addition um to the penguins

four group you know absolutely on that firm but you know at the end of the day um they were they were not able to make it work just because their salary kept situation and um you know they were not able to i think make the best deal that they wanted to um with proverbs to getting jack petrie that said and i'm really stoked to have patry on this team i think he's going surprise a lot of people this year. But that wraps up the second segment for today's episode. Coming up in the final segment, you get to some other news and notes around the penguins, including some of the players playing in a little summer week out in the

Midwest. Teddy Blueburn, Jake Gens will have been lighting it up out there. Stay tuned for that coming up after this commercial. I'm back in this episode of the Locktown Penguins podcast. I am your host, Honored Hodes. Follow me on Twitter at Homer Hodes. Follow the shows Twitter at Alorsal Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listed of the day.

So a couple of the penguin players have been playing. And so it's called WD League. Yes. You heard me right. That is where they are playing it. Out in the Midwest, a little bit if I can. find the tweet here. I don't know where the heck it is.

This is like, kind of ridiculous that I have not been able to find it. Okay, finally, that just like took, you know, way too long on to yet to, but, you know, every year on it since 2015, some England players, so they've traveled to Minnesota, which is where it's held. So it's a charity summer league that brings together some of the Angeles talent to get back and grow this sport upon. It's for a great cause. It's awesome.

Jake Gensel has been regular there for the last several years, and he is just lighting it up for the team that he's on. He leads all players and goals, assists, and points. And here you go. 15 goals, 27 points in just a handball game. These players stand no chance going up against one of the best goals scores in the league. He has just been absolutely awesome. Tristan Brods, he's also participating in, Penguins prospect.

He hasn't scored a point, but, you know, he has, well, three games with the Norse on, he has not scored a point, but he did pick up a goal with Pellman. Teddy Ruger, he's also been participating in the Debuty League, and he's been scoring. I know he doesn't do that as much with the Penguins, but, you know, hopefully, you know, scoring in this league, you know, to more goals for him this year, you know, in just a few games. four goals, 10 assists, so 14 points in six games. You know, if Teddy Lugar ever had that kind of production on the Penguins, I would just, I'll be stunned, and I would just also be so happy.

Again, obviously, it's a lot different going on again. You know, NHL competition compared to this competition. But, you know, it's still good to see him playing well after, you know, he struggled, you know, more than I expected to, more than I expected him to. That's the past season, you know, I kind of get the same. that the front office is, I guess, not that enamored with him right now. I get that it's more than an educated guess, but how they were willing to include him in the original wheel for Petrie

and how he looked in the playoffs. I guess I'm kind of not surprised that, you know, the staff is, you know, a little bit down on him, to say the least. But, you know, again, hopefully he can get some confidence back here. And, you know, it is a confidence back going into the season, but, you know, it looks like so far, he's been playing pretty well. Nick Bukstad, former penguin, he's been participating. Jason Zooker played in one game, and, you know, three goals, three assists.

So six-point game for Jason. I know he probably won't do that at all, I should say, for the Penguins this year. But, you know, it's good to see him back and healthy and, you know, playing well, obviously, even if it's only one game. I'm really excited towards off for this year. I may be in the minority from that. I guess I've always just had a soft spot for him, but when he's healthy, and I know that's few and far between when he is healthy, I definitely think he makes a big impact with his team. As it seems right now, he's likely going to be on any multiple swing, unless they go out and trade for another winger and make another slash something like that.

I think he's going to be on that wing. If he stays healthy, you know, I know I made the bold prediction largely that didn't come through. you know, I may go that way again, you know, if he stays healthy, maybe 20, 20, 20, 25 goals. You all may think I'm a complete moron for that. I totally understand. You can call me an idiot, get in the comments on YouTube and you can DME and all that stuff. But, you know, that's how high I am on him, excuse me, when he is healthy. Obviously, again, the big thing for him is for him, you know, is just to stay freaking healthy.

Ryan Paling, he's also played in a couple of games. He's scored a goal, outscore. Goski, he's also played in this. Again, it's just, it's a fun league that's, you know, for a great cause. It's, you know, definitely work checking out if, you know, you like to look at summer hockey and stuff.

I know the world juniors are going on right now. I would probably talk about them a lot more if there were a lot of Penguin prospects playing, but, you know, they don't have many playing because their prospect is, their prospect pool is really bad. part of me also understands that the whole team Canada situation is

just brutal for everyone involved. It's gross these allegations that I'm not going to go on a whole rant about it, I'm sure if you caught up in the news you know what I'm talking about this is the kind of stuff

with King Canada, this is the step has to lead the sport for good but if you again, if you are a fan of summer honky and you know you want to want to add more that's not just the world juniors i would definitely check out the beauty um penguins you know twitter account they've been posting all about it all summer you know it's also good for the players here to just you know stay in shape and you know just you know stay in game actually the players obviously to come back to fit for in the next month

um as long as they don't get hurt and you know it looks like they're kind of just gliding out there anyway um you know i think um totally plan with them playing at league as long as like a max That's true. The situation doesn't happen where he has to miss the next six months with a torn Achilles that we suffered. I think it was all values anyway, but still, you know, those kind of injuries can happen at any time. So as long as nothing happens there, totally okay with that. I think that's going to wrap up. Today's episode, it's going to be a little bit of a shorter episode, but, you know,

I'm still glad to be able to give you all, you know, 20 to 25 minutes, three days a week on Penguin's content. I will be back with another episode on Monday, which will be August 15th. That will be an official halfway point. And August we'll see if anything happens around the week this week. I was reading on Danny Shirey's report on D.K. Fitzgerick for Sports today. And, you know, he's focused on. And apparently he said he's never seen the market like this, which just comes to a standstill. Apparently, a lot of teams that have cap states are asking for the world from other teams that want to dump salary on them so they can find some of these players.

And right now, you know, that's why you're not seeing anything. I think that's one of the main reasons why the penguins have not made another move yet. I think in a perfect role they would have wanted to make a move by now. Camp is only about five weeks away at this point, but the reality is, I think teams are probably asking them for, you know, more than just a player. Excuse me, I want to drive things. Obviously, I think you're in a start to see some action. Hopefully, you know, around September, you know, closer to camp when I think teams will lower some of the Ration Prices. but again thank you all so much for listening to this episode I really really

appreciate it I'll be back on Monday for another one hope you all have a wonderful wonderful weekend we're almost getting closer to 700 subscribers on YouTube page we can get there before the season that will be splendid and planning to have some more guests on these last couple of weeks in August and obviously in September leading up to camp no getting closer about again five weeks at this point until camp opens and a few more few more months until I'm back at Pevchia Painterina for the first time. So I'm definitely excited and things ahead.

So hope you have a wonderful weekend. I'll talk to you on Monday.