Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - What should Danton Heinen's next contract look like?

Episode Date: June 1, 2022

It's the final day of May and yep, Penguins' content NEVER sleeps. He starts the show out by reviewing the final member of the top 6's season: Danton Heinen. He came over on a one-year prove-it deal, and boy did he ever prove it to the Penguins. He lit it up for 18 goals and set a new career-high in the process. Hunter dives into the numbers to look at what he excelled at this season, plus looked at the big underrated part of his game: His defense impact. He goes over the metrics on HockeyViz with the heat maps which show that related to league average, he's well-above in terms of preventing scoring chances in the defensive zone. Hunter also gets into the topic of what his next contract should look like. Should it come from the Penguins? If so, what should the term and AAV be? Should he get most of his minutes with Evgeni Malkin (if he returns) next season? After that, Hunter brings up an old friend that will be a UFA this summer: Phil Kessel. Does it make sense for the team to take a flier on him? How bad has his offense gone down since he was traded? Can he still contribute at 5v5? Finally, Hunter previews the conference finals and even offers some praise to the Rangers since they remind him of a certain Penguins team from a few years back...Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.Athletic GreensAthletic Greens is going to give you a FREE 1 year supply of immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase. All you have to do is visit athleticgreens.com/NHLNETWORK. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and happy the last day of May. We're just about to June. I'm going to get to some of the podcast numbers right after this job, just to tell you all how this month was absolutely crazy, to say the least. But for today's episode, going to do another player season review. I think I've done basically the entire top six now.

I've done Sid. I've done Jake. I've done Brian Rust. I have done that beginning of Malkin. I've done Jason Zooker. I'm probably missing one. Well, yeah. The other player that was most in the top six, most of the year was Dan Hinen.

So he is going to be gotten to today. And then for the rest of the off season, we're going to, you know, sometimes I'll have the days where I don't do player season reviews. But the rest will we have the bottom six players and then most of the defense and then the goalender. So today we'll be Dayton Hinden season review, how he did, what I would look to do with him over the off season, you know, what contract, what number like makes sense for him. also going to get into a player who has had history with this team.

Does it make sense to bring him back on a little bit of a flyer? Maybe as a power play specialist or, you know, see if there's anything there. Left it even strength. Going to go into his numbers and, of course, a couple other things as well. So that's all coming up right after this drop. You're Locked on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network.

Your team every day. Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. I'm going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow all the shows, Twitter, at L.O.R.S. Of course, as I literally sit back down, I notice our pool bag is right back here on YouTube. But, you know, I've been trying to keep this place as, you know, as clean as it can be. But you know what, whatever.

That can slide at least for, I wonder. Everything else, I think, is mostly pretty good. But yeah, we've made it to the last day of May. 30,000 downloads this month. I cannot say enough how great you all are for supporting this podcast. That's easily the best month in this show's history. And I've been doing this for getting close to three years. At this point, I started back in the fall of 2019 as a senior in college.

I'll be 25 this year. So just can't thank you all enough for supporting the podcast. 30,000 monthly downloads is something I never thought I would ever see. And I took this, I was like, you know what? You know, it's going to be like an escape for me to really talk about the team. I was still writing about them that, you know, kind of wanted to transition and try new stuff. But, you know, I just, I never thought the podcast, you know, would do these kind of numbers to say the least. So from the bottom of my heart, thank you so much.

New month now, I'm not expecting to hit 30K this month? Obviously, it would be a dream come true if I did. I know the all season is going to have a little bit less content because people, you know, they have other stuff going on with their lives. but no, my job is still to bring you all daily penguins content for the month of June. July is, I think, when it's going to go down to three, at least after the first half of the month, I'm pretty sure. And then, no, it'll be, you know, full on offseason mode for the show. But let's jump right into it.

So today's player season review is, of course, Dan Hinen. And he played 76 games this year, had 18 total goals, 15. of them or at even strength remember i mean this was a bargain signing by ron hextal he didn't even get two million on that deal i'm pretty sure it was like a one year one million dollar deal and uh he he out played that excuse he all played that well i almost had something wrong with my eye um he out played that and then some um it was really not even close um 865 minutes at 5E5 this year. 54% of the shot attempts at even strength.

So when he was on ice, the penguins were just getting all these attempts to the net. Goals for 45, 38 again. So 54% of the actual goals. Expected goals, though, 56.8%. That is the second best of his career going back to 2017-18 when he was with the Boston Bruins. When he was on the ice, the penguins at 57.3%.

Again, that's the second highest number of his career going back. back to the 2017-18 season. High danger, 58% of the high-danger chances for the Penguins when he was on ice. That is a career high. 51.8% of the high-danger goals. And then his own-a-shawn percentage was 9.1 this year, that was a career high.

And honestly, that's not really that high. I mean, it was below 10%. If it was somewhere like, you know, 14, 15, 16%, then I would probably be like, okay, this is probably going to go down here a little bit. But, you know, it was really not that much higher from last year. I mean, he only shot 7.69%. And last year he had, let me just make sure I got this right,

six, five, he five goals. I believe he had seven total goals with the ducks, from what I remember correctly. So, you know, his shooting percentage didn't really go up that much. You know, there's just this year he was actually finishing and capitalizing on his chances while also playing in a better system. And, you know, that was the big thing, you know, I said when they signed him,

was a couple days after free agency. Last year I was like, you know, this is a player that he needed a change of scenery. He's going from a team that was very defense first to a team that is offense first and a system where, you know, he can really, you know, use his shot as kind of like a deception. It definitely fools a lot of goaltenders, to say the least. His release is beautiful. Honestly, I know I talked about this a lot on the podcast during the season. He probably has one of the three best releases on this team.

outside of Jake Gensel, probably Sidney Crosby too. I think he probably has the best release on this team, and it's not really close, at least in my opinion. I would love to see them bring him back. I don't really think there was anything bad with him or wrong with him this year. I liked when he played with of Gini Malkin. I wish I had the hockey Viz numbers in front of me. I just don't think I'm signed in.

I'm honestly not signed into it. Maybe during a commercial break, now I'll pause the recording and then log in and everything. But I mean, you know, he was a lot of fun to watch on that line. They put him on there in the playoffs. Sometimes he'll play on the third line with Jeff Carter still produced. And yes, you know, Jeff, my good buddy, of course, gave me the easiest bet of all time.

I said, you know, I'll pay you cocky barbecue up in Ohio. if he scores 10 more goals, I'm like, I will gladly take that. That's for damn sure. And sure enough, you know, I actually almost did double for nothing. But I'm like, I don't want to risk it because then I would have had to buy him. So I was like, you know what? I'm just going to take what I have. And, you know, well, you know, we will roll with that.

But now, I was funny. I was able to log into hockey viz, Micah, Blake McCurdy stuff. and, you know, even strength offense this year, plus 8% relative to league average, a whole blob of red in the front of the net. That just means, you know, he's getting to the high danger areas and he's getting his goals there. Another part of the heat map right above or right, almost right, at the left faceoff circle. You know, and again, that's where his release comes into play there. Just, you know, it's just, it's that good.

defensively, minus 0.2 expected goals against per 60, minus 5% in parentheses. A lot of blue on the rink there. And, you know, the only spot where it's red, where he was giving up chances when he was on ice as a forward, right at the blue line. You know, you look around this heat map, nothing at the circles,

nothing in front of the net, nothing in that prime slot area, about 15 to 20 feet out, a little bit of red outside maybe the right face soft circle. But other than that, he kept everything to the point. He was very good defensively for the Penguins this year. It was pretty crazy. Just how good he was. And I don't really think a lot of people were talking about it enough going into the season. I think it was Jesse Marshall that had this pullback in September. I think I was in Cancreen at the time of my girlfriend.

And he was like, you know, what are you really looking forward to for the season? And I said, you know what, Jesse, you know, an underrated thing. Dan Hine, you know, he's coming over from a defensive first system. He did not have a good year with the ducks. I want to see what he can do in an offensive-based system like he was with Boston before he got traded. And sure enough, he was really freaking good. Now, as for what the penguins should do moving forward, I think they should have 100% bring him back. I think it would be just really dumb if they did.

I mean, he's obviously going to get a qualifying offer and he should. He's also an RFA, so they have his rights. Sure, could a team offer sheet him? Yeah, probably not going to happen. But this is a player that, you know, I would bring back for more than just a year. I would maybe do a two to three year deal. If you can get him for maybe around $3 million, I would do that. I don't think he's, again, he's not going to ask for, I don't think,

$3.6 to $4 billion per season or anything like that or $3.5. I think, you know, you can get him for 2.5 to 3, that would be a pretty big steal, in my opinion, especially with, you know, the value that he brought to the team this year. And, you know, he's durable. You can play him in the top six, play in the bottom six, play them on the Shirk and Power Play unit, play him on the penalty. You know, he was very good in the playoffs. If I refresh those stats here on natural stats, which still played in all seven games,

when he was on nice, the penguin's at 52% of the shot attempts, you know, four to three to four, for goals, four goals against, but 55.4% of the expected goals, 52% of the scoring chances for the penguins and he was on the ice, 59% of the high danger chances when he was on the ice. And oh, yeah, he also had a couple goals in that series. He shot 5.3%, which is not even really that high. But, you know, he still was able to pot a couple of goals. The first one, one game three for the penguins.

Remember, the Rangers erased that three-goal deficit, and then Hine in won the game. five to four with about nine minutes left in third period. Then he got the other goal in game seven. So, you know, I am totally bringing him back. You know, if obviously the cat allows for it, I do think it will, even if the penguins do bring back, Evgeny Malkin and Krista Tank. Sorry that I keep peeling back here.

This avalanche Oilers game is just on crack, meth, whatever drug you want to call. It's probably some of the best hockey I think I've ever watched. So that wraps up this first segment for what I would do with Dayton Heinen this year and just how good of a player he was. I wanted him to get more power play time next year on the second unit, wanting to get more PK time. I thought he was a terrific fit with Hedgeny Malken.

I want to see more time between those two together because, you know, they weren't playing on a game-by-game basis. Obviously, if Gennie Malkin was hurt for the first half of the year, if Gino does come back and they bring Hinen back as an RFA, I would like to see, you know, maybe like at least a 60-plus game sample size of those two together and see if it works because, you know, for what they did this year, the numbers were pretty strong, to say, at least.

So, yeah, definitely a big fan of him coming back. Very good move by Ron Hextal. I know some people are not super high in them as a general manager. Trust me, you know, he's definitely had his misses. But this one was surely a hit for the penguins. Now, coming up in the next step, we're going to get into this player that, you know, I'm curious to see if maybe the penguins will take a flyer on. He is an old friend from a couple of the copiers.

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liable of prices, all the parts your call were ever need. That is rock auto.com. I'm back here on this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hon. Hoadies. You want to follow me on Twitter. Hunter and Haudies. Follow the show's Twitter at L.A. HoundernerSquare Penguins.

So I'm going to ask this question very, very just low key here. Would anyone be opposed to fill the thrill coming back on a flyer? And yes, again, this is silly season. until July to talk about free agents and I'm going to have plenty more. I'm going to get to my take on this in just a second, but I'm throwing that out there for you guys. What do you all think about Phil the Thrill coming back on a cheaper deal after what he did last this season? And, you know, five goals, 33 points at 5E5, made what total of $8 million for his cap paid.

I think, obviously 6.8 from Toronto, 1.2 for the Penguins. Now he is a UFA and he can choose where he wants to go. He probably should have been traded the last couple of years. The coyotes decided not to do that. I was very surprised that he was not traded at the deadline this year. And now, I almost just lost much of the thought. And now, you know, he doesn't have to be on a bad team anymore. He can go to a contender, maybe try to win another cup in his career.

But, you know, the numbers this year, at least underlying, now, he slipped. The last three years, you know, 49% of the shot attempts of the coyote. when he was on ice in 2020, year before that, 46.6% of the shot attempts with the coyotes. And this year, the coyotes only had 44% of the shot attempts with him at even strength. Only 42% of the actual goals at 5E5. When he was on ice, the coyotes gave up a nice 69%. Before that, 40 to 41%. I mean, these numbers have cratered these last three years.

Expecting goals percentage to see her, 42%. Only 42.7% of the swing chances when he was on the ice for the caled. coyotes, 41.5% for high danger chances for, and then for high danger goals for, 43.4% of those. I mean, going back to his, honestly, his penguin days, you know, shot attempts wise, hovering in the 50 to 53%, you know, actual goals wise with the penguins, 58%, 58%, 54%, expected goals with the penguins, you know, 54% right around 50, most of those years, scoring chance wise, hovered around 50 decently. You know, the high, danger wise, a little below 40, but I also think, you know,

Evgeny Malkins obviously not the most defensively responsible center. You know, maybe if it was super, super cheap, I wouldn't hate it. But based on these numbers, I just don't think it's a good idea to bring him back. I mean, again, like his production has really just cratered these last few years. I mean, you know, funny enough, the Penguins actually got out of that contract. the right time. And I know it didn't seem like it a few years ago when they did trade him, but the more I think about it, and I understand that return was not that good. You know, POJ is the main player that's still there. He hasn't really come up yet too much. Got to see

what they have in him. I think he was the main part of that trade from the beginning. Alex Galchanyuk was just a total failure. I was super high on him. I thought he was going to be really good. And then all of a sudden, you know, he just, he flat out stinks. But, No, eight total goals this year. This was the first time he's had less than 10 goals in any season in the NFL. Even last year with the coyotes, 20 goals, 43 points, 56 games before that with Arizona. 14 goals, 38 points, even strength. This year, you know, six of the eight actually came at 5 to the other two were from the power play.

12 of his, I'm just making sure here real quickly. 12, oh wow, actually 12 of his 44 assists came on the powerboy. So he actually did have 32 assists at 5E5 this year, even though Natural Stagric is telling me that he had 28 total assists. Either hockey reference is just lying to me or, you know, the numbers were just not updated yet. But, you know, this was still, you know, production-wise, it's not bad from Phil.

I mean, playmaking wise, but goal scoring wise, I mean, I just don't think he really moves the needle that much. And right as I turn around, I thought Cal McCar scored again, still seven to five. You know, that fooled me there. Again, though, I do think this is a player. You know, he's going to be wanted by teams. I'm sure he easily could have been traded by the coyotes at the deadline here. I mean, don't get me wrong. He's still a good player, but he's not nearly as close as he used to be.

And I think, you know, that they're in, you know, lies day issues, 34 years old. You know, I don't know, maybe he does a one-year deal for a team. I would have to say it's going to be a two-to-three deal for a much lower cap. I mean, maybe he gets $4 million. I probably wouldn't pay him that at this point. But, you know, I know some people would be all four for a fill coming back just for the vibes and all that stuff. me, though, I just, I'm not a big fan of it just because, you know, he's really regressed ever since he got traded me. He's shooting percent just cratered. His goal scoring has gone

down basically every year since the trade. Again, I know defensively, it's not really a thing. You know, you look at hockey viz plus 11 percent compared to league average. There's a whole blob of red in the defensive zone right in front of the net. That's not good enough. And, you know, part of that could be to do to playing on the coyotes who are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. But even strength offense, you know, most of the red comes from below the right circle dot, you know, to the side of the net. Not a lot of stuff from, you know, five, ten feet out or even 15 to 20 feet out, like in that prime time slot.

It's mainly just that spot from the right circle where he's on his damage. And again, I just don't think that's good enough for him. So that's my take on that. Let me know what you all think. You know, do you think Phil Keschel, you know, should the penguins take a flyer on him to potentially have him return it, you know, could that be one of the changes they decide to make just because, you know, they're going to have to save, you know, cap space somewhere and, you know, bringing fill in, it may not be the worst idea, but it's one that, you know, I'm not really super big on,

to say the least. So a little more to get to you for this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. So stick around for that coming up in our next segment. All right. I'm back here on this episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hode. I want to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the shows, Twitter, at L.O. underscore penguin.

So, you know, we've reached the final four here in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Lightning versus the Rangers, the Avalanche versus the Oilers, and that game won tonight has already been absolutely spectacular. I absolutely love watching these two teams go at it. Eastern Conference finals should be interesting. I mean, I think Tampa should win that series, but I also said the same thing for Carolina. and then they looked very unimpressive. And honestly, you know, again,

I'm not trying to sound like a hater here or anything like that. It really is a shame that the penguins do not finish off that series against the Rangers because they definitely could have taken down that version of hurricanes. You know, this year was prime for the taking for the penguins. They're up three games to one. The lives are good. You're 25 minutes away in game five. You're less than six minutes away in game seven.

You know, Carolina, they didn't really look all that good against Boston. Sure, they won on home ice. they look terrible on the road. It comes to the second round against the Rangers. They absolutely steamroll them in the first, well, I shouldn't say steamroll them in the first two games. The Rangers gave game one away and then stunk in game two. They only scored one goal in the two games.

But after that, Carolina just looked really bad. I have no idea what happened to them. That was not the same team I saw from the regular season, to say the least. Their special teams took a page out of the Penguins book in that series. Their power play in the playoffs get this stat. Seven for 54. I know the Penguins have their power play issues. Five on threes be damned.

They're really bad. Five on fours have not been that good in the playoffs for the last couple of years. But things could be worse. I will say that. Seven for 54 is an absolute disgrace. Whoever runs their power play should be fired. You know, that really costs them the series. Their penalty kill, which was, you know, compared to the Penguins penalty kill,

which was really good for most of this year, it was even better than that unit. And it just went down to the face of the earth. I mean, the Rangers power play just owned them. And, you know, I understand, you know, some of the takes people are saying, you know, it's flugie for the Rangers, you know, how are they here? But, you know, again, last night check-ins,

goaltending and special teams are very important parts of hockey. Sure, has there been a little luck for the Rangers to get this far? Yes, but I also will say this. Any freaking team gets lucky when they go on a deep run. You have to get a bounce. You have to get calls that go your way. You have to get lucky saves. You have to get, you know, say a puck goes off a player's skate and in the net.

You know, that's playoff hockey. They're small sample size series. And at the end of the day, you know, sometimes, again, sometimes the better teams from the. regular season don't end up winning this series or even during the playoffs. Sometimes a team that outplays another team for most of the time does not always win. You have to live with it. It's whatever.

That said, you know, the Rangers, E. Gorsha Sterkin turned it on in that series. Their power play continued to be awesome. Five on five numbers be damned. I don't know if that's going to continue to hold against the Tampa Bay Lightning team that will bury them, I think, at 5E5. But you know what? The Rangers fan and their fans should probably not give a fly.

crap they're here it's the first time they've been there since 2015 they're not going to apologize for it that's that it's whatever you know congratulations to them you know i have no problem you know being classier um whatever you know as i'm not you know people have come in my mentions and say like will you the humans will a three one lead i'm like okay i mean i've seen the team i'm 24 years old i've seen the team win three championships since 2009 i i i should be honest i i do not care anymore i got over that series and basically a day you know, the Jacob Truba stuff, I'm not going to get into it. You know, he had a couple of hits that maybe crossed the line, a couple others.

You know, I think that last one last night was pretty clean, I should say. You know, it's definitely annoying that he puts himself in these positions. You know, but under the league rules, it's a clean play. That's how they see it. There's not going to be a supplemental discipline, nor should. There have been any supplemental discipline. You know, you want to have those hits out of the game, take it up with the league. I'm of the opinion.

I think any contact to the head, whether it was incidental or not, should be penalized. You know, maybe you adopt the IAHF rules with the Angel is never going to do that. So, again, it's a ways of time talking about that. And, you know, I'm excited for that series. You know, can New York dethrone the defending champs? Can Shasturkin outplay Vasilevsky? You know, until someone beats Vasilevsky four out of seven times, I am not going to take most of other teams seriously.

I think Colorado can maybe do it. The Rangers, though, you know, we'll see. You know, it all comes down to potentially break it. point plays in this series. He's been banged up with an injury since the Toronto series. He's had a week and a half off to rest. We'll see if he'll be in the lineup. But again, you know, goodos to Rangers. You know, they may not be, you know, the flashiest team, but, you know, they remind me of the 2017 Penguins. They have a lot of high-end talent. They got good PDO right now. Matt Murray in 2017 was 937. Shasturkin in this past series was

950. And again, I'm not comparing the two goalies, but I'm just saying, you know, both their goaltenders in that run for the Penguins, and this for the Rangers have played at a very high level, and the Penguins special teams in that cup run were really freaking good, as are the Rangers right now. Penguins also got badly outplayed at 5B5 during those finals. The Rangers have done that here as well. But you know what again, they shouldn't apologize to anyone.

Now, at the end of the day, they're here. Other teams are not, and they are a few steps, there are a lot of steps ahead in their rebuild. So at the end of the day, you know, for all the y'all that listening, you can hate watch the series all you want, hope for the Rangers to lose. You know, I'm just going to hope for a good series between two pretty good teams. So the Rangers have a lot of great high-end talent that are fun to watch. And, you know, let's see, can this team of all teams, you know, take down the dragon here or slay the dragon, I should say. My predictions overall, Avalanche in six, though that could change if Darcy Kemper's out,

and I'm going to take the bolts in six. I was going to go five, and I'm like, I don't think Shostrookin's going to lose four and a five games. So I'll say bolts in six. I really like how Tampa's playing right now. This is going to be obviously an even steeper challenge for the Rangers to win. I do like for us to have a Tampa Bay Garland Final, but, you know, let's just watch us get a St.

St. Louis Edmonds in New York now. But that would do it for this episode of The Locked on Penguins podcast. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode. I have another one on June 1st, of course, to start the new month. So I hope you all have a great rest of your evening. And I will talk to you all on Wednesday.