Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Which Penguins prospect has to stand out this weekend?

Episode Date: September 9, 2024

The Penguins will send their prospects to Buffalo this weekend with a lot to prove. Patrick and Hunter discuss which of them have the most to gain and the most to lose at the Prospects Challenge in Buffalo. They then continue their summer catchup series and talk about what you can expect from new Penguins' forward Kevin Hayes. Finally, NHL EDGE has some pretty interesting insights into the Penguins and who is among the team's biggest contributors.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!eBay MotorsFor parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guaranteed Fit at eBayMotors.com. Let’s ride. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNHL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.FanDuelNow through September 22nd, ALL FanDuel customers can bet FIVE DOLLARS and get a THREE WEEK free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. Visit FANDUEL.COMto get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ladies and gentlemen, we've made it. There is actual hockey, sort of, that's going to be played this week for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Hunter and I are going to talk about that and more on this edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. You're Locked-on Penguin, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and welcome back to another edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Patrick Damp. You can follow me on Twitter at Synonym 4Wet. Joined as always by the one and only Hunter Hodes.

You can follow him on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. You can give our show's account a follow at L.O. underscore Penguins. And we thank you for making this your first listener watch of the day, because we're your team every day. And before we get started, today's episode is brought to you by Fandul. Now through September 22nd, all Fandul customers can bet $5 and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. Visit Fanduil.com to get started. Hunter.

It's finally here, sort of. But we have made it through the dog days of summer where we're all missing hockey. We're spending time going through blogs and other message boards and social media to find something to talk about for the sport of hockey. But this Friday, the Penguins will participate in the Prospects Challenge. in Buffalo. So what we are going to do today, Hunter and our dear listeners, is we're going to start off and not do so much a preview of the Prospects Challenge, but we're going to talk about a couple players who are going to beyond the Penguins Prospect Challenge roster and what they can

gain, what they can lose, what they need to do over those couple of days when it begins on Friday the 13th. Boy, given this team's history with injuries and things like that, maybe that's an ominous sign, but I digress. So Hunter, I want to start with the biggest name because while it hasn't been updated on the Penguins website, which I have pulled up right now for the roster for the Prospects Challenge, the first one we got to talk about while the name on the roster is still Braden Yeager, who is now with the Winnipeg Jets, we have to talk about the Penguins' big offseason acquisition, and that is Rutger Magrorty.

So I'll start here with Magrorty. He has to essentially dominate this tournament. I don't think it's fair to say in a prospect challenge where you're playing with a group of players who you've never really played with before. You're playing against teams who are comprised of the exact same thing. It's a bunch of teams who are bringing their prospects in just to see what they do. This is very similar to both preseason hockey and preseason football where you're not really evaluating. the game in the sense of team versus team, but you're evaluating individual performances. So when I look at a guy like Rucker McGrory who looks all but ready to make the jump to

the National Hockey League, while I don't want to say he needs to have a dominant performance where the counting stats jump off the page scores a bunch of goals and points, he does have to look like arguably the best player on the ice. And I think that's a good standard to hold him to going into this weekend. Yeah, I agree. It's kind of similar to what I want to see from him with what I saw with Yeager back in Development Camp in July, right? When it was kind of a man against boys out there with Yeager. It was honestly him and Mirasham, I felt like, were the two standouts of Development Camp back in July. I want to see McGrody do that, maybe a little bit on steroids in this prospect challenge this weekend. You look at the teams that the Penguins will be going up against.

McGority is going to be arguably the best prospect in this tournament. I want him to go out there. improve it. I understand he doesn't have a lot of experience playing with the other Penguins top prospects. That's obviously going to change here. And I think it's obviously going to change during training camp, which starts next week. But I want to see him go out there and show why he is the top prospect right now in this system. And honestly, Pat, same goes for Sergey Murashoff. He's on the roster for this right now. He's in North America for this season and in future seasons. We still have to see what happens with him. He's start the season in Wilkesbury. Does he start in Wheeling? But with how good he was in development camp,

I want to see how he does now in goal against some of these other teams' top prospects, considering how great he was in development camp. We all know his numbers are really good over in Russia. Now I want to see it over in North America playing against other teams' top prospects. I also have my eye on him as well. For sure. And I'll add this, that I think for Murashav, the stakes are a little bit lower just because you know there's already a log jam in net with the Penguins Jari,

Nadelcovic, Blumquist, Gaudier. That's four goalies right there. And all of them in some capacity have their place in the organization set. Obviously, Jari and Nadelcovic are going to be the NHL goalies. Blumquist and Gaudier are going to fight it out for what happens in Wokesbear. And then you have Murrishov. I think with him, you really look at this in a sense of how much higher can he raise his stock? Is he going to push for a spot in Wokesbear this year and overtake someone?

like Gaudier, who has done really well, or is he going to have to start in the ECHL and really build himself up? But at the end of the day, those stakes aren't as high. And speaking of the prospects challenge overall, this is, I think, going to be a good proving ground for a lot of these prospects, because you look at the teams that are involved. It's a very good spectrum overall when it comes to where a lot of these organizations are. You have Buffalo who does have have a ton of good prospects. Boston, who's kind of in that same spot as Pittsburgh, where they have some, but not a lot.

Columbus, who is just bursting at the seams with a ton of good prospects. New Jersey, despite being one of the better teams in the metro, they have some good prospects. And obviously, there's Ottawa there as well, who they're another team. A lot of good players in the pipeline. So you kind of get a really good sense of, okay, where do these, where do these penguins prospects stand among a lot of the other organizations and where they stand in prospects. So a couple other players to touch on here.

One of the forwards I want to get into is Tristan Brose, just won the national championship with the University of Denver, where he was a very solid player putting up 40 points in 43 games with the University of Denver and was a crucial part of them winning the national championship. He doesn't have to go out there and dominate, but he is turning pro this year. So you want to see him make that push. You want to see him at least prove that he belongs at a professional level. Didn't get as much of a chance with Wokespaer in the playoffs because of their sudden exit in the qualifying first round where they went out to the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. So you want to see him kind of build on what he did at the University of Denver. And then two of the guys

who were brought in in the Jake Gensel trade in Vili Coivinen in Vasily Ponomerov. They have to, those two have to show a lot because we've heard that they're knocking at the door. They're right there. They're ready to make a jump. So this is where they have to show that there's some of the bigger fish in this pond. I think Ponomerov is going to make his penguins debut at some point this season. I'm not sure he's going to make the team out of camp. I think just right now with the logjam at Ford, he's probably going to start the season.

in Wilkesbury. But when some injuries likely happen in considering this team's history the last decade, they probably will. I think Ponomerov is going to come up at some point this season to make his Penguins debut, get in a handful of games. He's already made his NHL debut before. I do think his ceiling right now is a bottom six center that could potentially improve throughout the years, but that's where I'm at with him right now. But again, I don't see him making the team right out of camp, but I see him playing at least some games during the season. Covenin, I think it's a little behind Ponomerov. I think he's also going to start the season in Wilkesbury, but I don't think he's

going to make this team out of camp. Tristan Bros, he's kind of flying under the radar a bit. Very good this year for the University of Denver. As you said, he's turning pro. I'm curious to see how he does at this camp and also in Wilkesbury this year. How does he do in his first pro season in Wilkesbury? Another player also to point out to everyone that I think is also a little bit under the radar, Atlee Calvert.

played with Brain Yeager this year in Moose Jaw, 47 goals, 95 points in 68 games. Yes, I understand it's junior level. I know that's not going to be the case when he turns pro and plays in Wilkesbury this year, but he was one of Moose Jaw's best players this year. He's going to be, excuse me, at this Prospects Challenge. And I'm also curious to see how he does considering how great he was in Moose Jaw this year. So I'm keeping my eye on him as well. Obviously, Owen Pickering, he's talked a lot about potentially making this team at a camp right now.

I'm a bit skeptical right now, but I want to see how his development is going. I mean, we've been seeing on some of these top, you know, NHL prospect websites. They've had Pickering still as the top prospect even over McGority. I disagree with that. You disagree with that. But it's time to see what this kid is made off considering, you know, his development has kind of been stagnant at times. He's been banged up at times.

I want to see now that he's fully healthy, is this push for the main roster for real? Or does he still need some seasoning, Wilkesbury? I kind of tend towards the latter at this one. I think he's got to start this season. Wilkesbury, build his game up more, and then maybe make his NHL debut maybe at some point later on this season, if not next season.

Yeah, and I'm right there with you on that is I also think pickering is also going to be a victim of a numbers game. Yeah. We talked about this last week with the amount of defensemen that are in the system right now and that are likely to be at the main training camp and how there's really only one open spot on the main roster in defense for a consistent job, where I don't think Pickering's ready to take a consistent job from anybody on the defense.

That said, he's still only 20 years old. He has had some injury issues, but by all accords, he has been able to get past those. He has been able to put on some pounds and really start to look like more of an NHL, maybe not ready, but an NHL option at some point. So, well, I don't think he needs to be in the same category as, say, a guy like McRourty, where he's got to go out and dominate. He does have to go out and be one of the best defensemen, if not the best defenseman on this prospect challenge roster, because you look at who's on the roster

on defense, and there's not a ton of standouts there. Obviously, Isaac Belovow could be something, but that's a 21-year-old who's cut his teeth in the ECHL the last year. And then you have guys like Harrison Brunachie who could be all right, but he's still a ways away. And that's really it. I'm excited for him, though. I was really hyped up about that pick during this year's draft.

I think, as you said, he's definitely a few years away. But I still want to see how he does at this type of tournament, just because of how fun of a puck mover he is. He's really good in his own zone. Seeing him go up against this type of competition, I feel like that's going to be really good for him too. Absolutely. So we will have more on the prospect tournament later this week.

The closer we get to it, we'll give you a little bit more of an inside look at what we're watching for at the Prospects tournament this weekend in Buffalo. But that will do it for our first segment. When we return, we're going to continue our little summer catch up series. And we're going to talk about one of the Penguins offseason acquisitions, Kevin Hayes, and what our expectations are for him this upcoming year. but before we do that, we have to tell you about our first sponsor, and that is Fandul. You've heard us talk a lot about Fandul, America's number one sports book. Well, today we have something a little different for you.

Now through September 22nd, all Fandul customers can bet $5 and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. I said it to Hunter before we started recording. Yesterday was week one, the full slate of games in the NFL, and I've got NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube TV, and I got to tell you that quad box, oh man, if you're a fantasy football player like I am, really helps you out. But then with a YouTube TV base plan, you'll be able to watch every regular season Sunday afternoon out-of-market game, and all you need is a Google account and a current form of payment, and you can cancel every time. Just visit fanduel.com and download America's number one sportsbook. All right, welcome back to the Monday edition

of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm Patrick Damp. That's Hunter Hodes. And we're going to continue here with our little off-season refresher series that we've been doing the last couple of weeks. We're plucking out a couple players that the penguins have acquired, whether it be free agency or via a trade this off season because we know it's been the dog days of summer with hockey right around the corner.

You might have forgotten some of these moves, but don't worry, we got you. We're going to get you caught up. So we obviously talked about this a few times here throughout the summer, so our dedicated listeners understand. But penguins get Kevin Hayes over the summer during the draft for basically just draft picks. And overall, I don't know how excited I am for this move because it fits into yet again that bucket of players that we've been talking about all off season where these are guys who they've got something to prove.

They're hoping for a bounce back year. And we did a full episode with Haley Taylor Simon from Locked-on Blues, who gave us a great rundown of Kevin Hayes and everything we needed to know about them. If you haven't heard that, head back in our archives, give that a listen. It's a great episode. She's one of the smarter hosts we've got here on the Lockdown Network. But overall, I think that the ceiling is a little bit higher for Kevin Hayes than most people might think. He's only a year removed from having a 54-point season.

in his last year in Philadelphia. He had 18 goals, 36 assists. He was one of their better players on a team that really wasn't that great. And then he gets to St. Louis. And he was just never really a fit. 13 goals, 16 assists, 29 points and 79 games. I think this is a player that could surprise some people this year for the Penguins. Yeah, I definitely think he has more to give coming off of last season.

I mean, only 13 goals, 29 points. I mean, that's, in my opinion, almost like fourth line center production in today's NHL, in my opinion, the Penguins, they can't get that type of production from Hayes, considering they want him to be their third line center for this year. He's going to have to be a lot better than that for this year. I know, I'm saying the obvious for that, but they need him to be, I think, at least, you know, a 40 to 45 point player.

If he can get up to a 50 point player for this year, that would be huge just because the Penguins really haven't had a third line center like that in the last couple of years. so it would be nice if he can get at least closer to the player that we saw in 22, 23 when he was with the flyers. I do think with Hayes, this is a more stable environment for him. I think the coach is also going to trust him a bit more. And I also think he's going to have the right wingers around him as well to succeed. You know, Hayes, more of a playmaker at this point.

Yeah, he has an okay enough shot, but that's not his game. His bread and butter is being a playmaker. And I think for the Penguins, if you're able, again, to playmaker, put someone, you know, like a Dalton Pusen with him on the third line, someone who has a really wicked shot. That would make some sense. If Drew O'Connor does not win the top line wing job,

you can put him there. Makes a lot of sense considering how great he was last year. And the same goes for Rucker McGority. If McRourty does not win that job, and he very well may not, even though you and I are both predicting him to, if he doesn't, and O'Connor's up on the top line, you put McRourty with Hayes, excuse me,

that makes a lot of sense as well. So I do think being in a more stable environment, having better wingers, I think, is going to pay huge dividends for him this year. So I'm not ready to say that he's going to be the player that we saw in Philadelphia that final year. But I also don't think he's going to be as bad as he was with the blues during this past season. I understand he's a bit on the older side. But I don't think this player is as cooked as some people are saying. I do think he is going to be a positive player for this team. He may not be the best third line center they've had during the Crosby era,

but I certainly don't think he's going to be the worst. For sure. And a couple things on Hayes here. One, very affordable deal, 3.5 million, just a little bit over that. It's like 3.571 or something. But that's because when Philadelphia sent him to St. Louis, they retained 50% of the contract. So flyers are paying 50% of,

of his cap hit this year. So that's good news for the penguins. When you're only paying a guy like this, three and a half million, if he can get at least a little bit of a bounce back, you'll take that all day. He's not, like you said,

he's not all that old. He's 32. And I know that there are a lot of people who want this team to get younger. The two of us are right there with you. But this is a guy I think you can take a flyer on. And if he is your third line center, I mean,

let's be honest here. It's been so barren in the bottom six the last couple of years. Even last year's production of 13 goals in 29 points from a guy in the bottom six represents an upgrade for this team. So do I think he's going to get back to that 50 point level next year? Probably not. But if you can get him 35, 40-ish points in the bottom six, that's an upgrade in somebody who can really help you push towards the playoffs. And I look at it this way. I think I've said this theory on the show before, but if not,

I do think there is a world where the penguins are looking at this season as almost a wash out of the gate to where like everything is just kind of found money, especially if and when they get Sidney Crosby locked up to whatever extension. Then next year, they have a ton of players that come off the books. They have a ton of cap space. They're going to have another year of Kyle Dubus's plan of, drafting well, getting draft picks and prospects, and then combine that with a boatload of cap space, you can maybe take one last run at this thing. But in the immediate with Kevin Hayes,

if you can get, like I said, 35, 40-ish points out of him, and you have him in a more stable environment than he was in in St. Louis, like you said, this could very well be a good reclamation project for the penguins. Right. And maybe not even 35 points. Like I said, 40 to 45, I think you're doing AOK there. For example, if say his counting stats are, you know, 2020 or you know, 2025, something like that for a third line center, I will gladly take that. Someone who gets 45 points, decent underlines, because last year, I mean, I've said this on the show before, his underwings were pretty pissed more when he was on the ice. The Blues only had about 45% of the shot attempts. They did have 36 goals for, 35 goals again, so that's not bad.

But still, only a 45% expected goals for a rate, 45% scoring chances for rate, 44% high danger chances for rate. Those numbers are going to have to go way up this year. And I do think they will just because I think this is a better fit for him. He'll have better line mates. I also think Mike Sullivan's system is better tailored to him than the Blues one. Because I think the Blues, they were playing more defensive hockey last season. I think with Sullivan, who is more offensive happy, but, you know, still runs, I think, when

it's humming a decent defensive system. I think overall Sullivan's offensive philosophy is better suited for Hayes overall. So I also am high on that aspect for this player as well. I'm just super intrigued to see if this reclamation project works better than I think a lot of people are expecting it to. For sure. And I'll add that you also, I think, have to add this caveat to his. underlines from last year.

When you put them within the context of the blues bottom six, he was among the better players in their bottom six. The roster was just very weak. Right. Like when you look at them on the surface, you, you cringe a little bit. You think, okay, this isn't great. You need to have better underlines to be a reliable bottom six player.

But then you put them in the context of the blues roster. And he had some of the better underlying numbers in the blues bottom six. So you think about it, okay, maybe you have a little bit better and a revamped bottom six this year for the penguins. And those numbers are going to go up almost by default just because he's going to have better linemates and better quality of competition to go up against. So he very well could build off of those this year. Now, again, the biggest issue I have right now with Kevin Hayes is foot speed. The foot speed really isn't there. And that might end up being an issue for the penguins.

But if they can put him, if Sullivan can put him with players who have maybe some better wheels than he does, that could also help him just in general because he won't have to be the one who's the driving force on the line, but he can work better with those players. Right. And that's where someone like Valteri Houston comes in. I think he's one of the better skaters on this team. also Drew O'Connor. His skating was magical last year. His year last year was also magical. So those are just two of the players that come to mind who are good skaters that I do think would be

good fits for Hayes. You know, Morgority, I think with his playmaking ability and his shot, that's a good fit, but also his skating is his big drawback as well. So potentially, you know, he plays on a different line. But still, someone like a Poussin and someone like an O'Connor, heck, maybe even someone like Beauvillier, if he's on the third line to start the season, that can make some sense as well. They'll have no shortage of options, I think, for Hayes once camp starts and then once the season starts in 30 days now. We are T-minus 30 days until the regular season. Hard to believe that we are that close and that we finally made it.

But that will wrap up here, our second segment regarding Kevin Hayes. When we come back, got some fun penguins-related stats to look into that I had sent to me recently, but we will do that right after this. All right, welcome back. It's the final segment of the Monday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. One more time, I'm Patrick Damp. That's Hunter Hodes. And I got sent this the other day, Hunter, by someone.

And it kind of flew under the radar. I didn't see it when it came out. But it's pretty interesting. So as most people might know, but if you don't, the NHL launched this thing in the past year called NHL Edge. and it's basically the league itself's foray into advanced analytics. There's some good stuff there, but overall, I'd say it's pretty surface level. It's not going to give you any sort of huge understanding. There are plenty of people like J. Fresh, Natural Statrick, and so many others who do great work with advanced statistics.

But there were some fun penguins-related ones this season. And I want to start with the guy who we are all waiting. for him to sign a deal. And that's Penguins captain, Sidney Crosby. This one stood out to me because it shows that this guy is still one of the best to do it. According to NHL Edge, Sidney Crosby was tied for seventh in the NHL with high danger goals in 23. And he was in the 97th percentile in high danger shots. And this is wild.

he ranked among the NHL leaders in total skating distance at 267.22 miles. So even at this age, even with all the miles on that body, this guy is still one of the absolute best. He's the best grinder in the sport, right? I mean, he really is at this point. But those stats that you gave us, you know, seventh in high danger goals of 23, 97th percent on high-danger shots on goal. That goes to show he loves being behind the net, just setting up those plays,

and also loves being around that net front area to the side, working on those deflections. He's been great at that throughout his career. You're going to see more of it this year. I'm not surprised that he's in those categories there. Another stat that really stood out to me as well, Michael Bunting ranked among the league leaders in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths.

97th percentile at 47.8 percent, last year. season. And you don't even have to look at the analytics to know that. Just watching him on the ice, he was living and breathing in the offensive zone, dragging this team into the fight, like you said, all around the net. That was his office right when he came over from Carolina. I expect to see a lot from him again in that area this year. And I, again, I know you're the president of the Jeff Carter fan club. I'm probably the president of the Michael Bontain fan club for this year. I think he is going to have a massive year for this team. When we get to our bold predictions later on during training camp, I'm going to have one that probably blows away the listeners and watchers of the show regarding

bunting. I am super high on him this year and what he can do for this team. But that stat does not surprise me at all considering how he was always around the net front area. And then also for Eric Carlson ranked among the league's best in top shot speed with 101.5 4 miles per hour. That's 98 percentile. No surprise there, considering how great his shot is. Also top skating speed at 23 miles per hour. That's 90th percentile. Again, really no surprise there, considering Carlson is one of the most smooth skaters in the NHL. For sure. And back to the bunting thing, I mean, it's been said to death by both of us, but this is the exact kind of player the penguins have been missing for a while. And at the same time, I think it really speaks to the struggle, so to speak, of Gennie Malkin last year.

just everyone was starting to worry, including ourselves, if maybe it was finally coming to an end for Evgeny Malkin, if he was starting to finally fall off the cliff. And while, yes, he is nowhere near the player he was even five years ago, he just never had somebody on his line who helped him the way Michael Bunting has been able to help him. and having a player like Bunting who can go in and do the dirty work and really keep this team in the offensive zone. It can keep the possession in the offensive zone and allow of Gennie Malk in the space to do what he does best really revitalizes his game. And just like you, I'm extremely high on him going into this season. And then finally, as for Eric Carlson, I think I've said it a million times.

going to be in a much better environment this year, both with the way the roster is going to be made up with the coaching staff and a full year with the penguins under his belt. I think he's going to really bounce back, so to speak, even though I don't think he was as bad as a lot of people think he was last year. I think that he's poised to have a great year and all the tools are there, but I think that will do it for the Monday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. Thank you all, as always, for tuning in. This is our last week. of three days a week episodes. We will have a new episode for you on Monday or on Wednesday, excuse me.

And then another episode for you again on Thursday to get you ready for the prospect challenge. And then next week, we're back to five days a week because training camps here. And that means hockey is knocking at the door. But for now, for Hunter Hodes, I'm Patrick Dam. Thank you, as always for tuning in. We will talk to you again on Wednesday.