Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Who are "locks" for the Pittsburgh Penguins bottom six this season?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pittsburgh Penguins were a bit busy over the weekend, signing Colin White to a PTO. Pat and I are going to discuss what that means for the team going forward right after this. You're Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am one of your hosts, Hunter Hodes.

Starting point is 00:00:39 You can follow me on Twitter at Hunter. Hodes. That is my co-host to the right, Patrick Damp. You can follow him on Twitter at Sinnam for Wet, and you can follow these shows, Twitter, at L.O. Winnercial Penguins, of course, thank you all so much for making this, your first list and slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. I do feel quite a bit better today compared to where I was on Friday when it came to the cold that I suffered right at the end of the trip. Thank God. And in typical Penguins fashion, Pat, they drop some news on a day that we don't record, signing calling, White to a PTO. Kyle Dubus loving the PTO season right now. Colin White has played about six,

Starting point is 00:01:19 seven seasons with the Ottawa Senators, has a couple seasons where he scored double-digit goals. His career best season came in 2018-19 with the Senators. 71 games, 14 goals, 41 points, and 71 games. And Penguins can get that kind of player this year from Colin White. That will be awesome, though. It's probably not as likely right now. You look at his underlines. Just hasn't been the same player since that season ranks in the 8th percentile for 5-on-5, even-strength offense, 19th percentile for wins above replacement, if you look at Jayfresh's charts, 25th percentile for finishing, primary assist at 17 percent, but he does bring an element that a lot of these recent bottom six signings bring.

Starting point is 00:02:00 That is, five-on-five even-strength defense ranks in the 73rd percentile among all fourth-liners in the NHL when it comes to five-on-five even-stinings. strength defense. So you have him, you have guys like Matt Mietto, Noah Chari, Lars Eller. It is obvious what the plan for the bottom six is this season. Pat, do you think he has a shot at making this team out of camp? Yeah, I definitely think he's got a shot just because they played with the Panthers last year, 68 games, put up an okay, okay numbers for a fourth liner in in 68 games with eight goals, seven assists, 15 points. My biggest concern with him, and I know I'm going to get a lot of crap from a lot of

Starting point is 00:02:45 stathead people here, is that there have been several seasons and including the playoff run with the Panthers this year, where he was pretty much in every game. He has finished in the minus on plus minus in the double digits. And while I know that plus minus is an outdated stat and it's not like, a lot of people don't take much stock in it anymore. I still am very much of the belief that you can actually still read something into a person's play in plus minus once they start getting into double digits. You know, if somebody's minus two, minus four, plus one, plus two, whatever, that's an element of statistical randomness. You know, maybe you jump over the boards and five seconds later the other team scores and there's really nothing you can do about it.

Starting point is 00:03:34 you didn't have a ton to do with that play. But when you start getting into double digits, it tells me there is some defensive deficiencies there. So I look at his postseason numbers from this past run. He played 21 games with the Panthers and was a minus nine. And we saw how that Panthers team was in this postseason. They were pretty good defensively and they got some great goaltending throughout that run. And yet he's a player who finished minus nine.

Starting point is 00:04:04 So that does give me some pause that his defensive game might be starting to trail off. But at the same time, I do believe what you do, that this is Kyle Dubus and the Penguins saying, we need to have more defensive accountability in our bottom six this coming season. Because we've said it on this podcast a million times now. The bottom six got caved in defensively last year, and it was a serious problem. because I still don't mind the thought of leaning on your top six to be your biggest time performers. On the other hand, they can't be dependent upon to do every single thing, offense, defense, special teams. You eventually need your bottom six to step in and give them at the very least an even slate.

Starting point is 00:04:54 They need to come out even. Maybe they don't score a bunch of goals, but they also can't give up a bunch of goals. And that's what we saw last year. they gave up a bunch of goals and couldn't score them at the same time. The way this roster is coming together is camp approaches in a couple weeks. This bottom six is not going to give up a lot of goals, but they're also probably not going to score a lot of them. And I said to you in a text message when this news came out on Saturday,

Starting point is 00:05:18 at this point, there has to be somebody in the bottom six who can score goals. And right now I'm not totally seeing it. I feel like we've been discussing that topic for the last two, three months about, oh, who is going to score the goals in the bottom six? And hey, you know, if Colin White can get back to where he was in 2018, 19, where he scored 40, almost said 40 goals, 14 goals and have 45 points, then awesome. That's your guy that can score goals for you in the bottom six.

Starting point is 00:05:44 But what he has shown since then both with the senators and the Panthers this past season, I don't think you're going to get that kind of player. He was basically just a passenger for the Panthers in the playoffs. only had two points in those 21 games. The Panthers got to the Stanley Cup final, not because of him, but in spite of him. And I will say this, though, about all the PTOs and signings here is a lot of it in the bottom six is very low risk, very high reward.

Starting point is 00:06:16 It's smaller time deals. It's PTOs. And as we've discussed, PTOs rarely turn into big deals. It's usually under a million dollars, maybe a year, maybe two. Like the Brian Royal contract. Right. It's guys who you signed to a deal that isn't going to hurt you in the long run, isn't going to hurt you in the short term, and there's real opportunity for upside.

Starting point is 00:06:41 So while I do still have the mindset of, hey, listen, we got to get somebody in this bottom six. And as we'll talk about in the next segment, it's going to have to be internally now. you do have guys here who have better upside for what they're going to get signed to, whether that'd be a PTO or a one or two year deal. Right. I agree with that. I think he's going to have to have a pretty good camp and preseason to make it just because of the players who were signed before him. And again, you know, we'll keep saying this too. This competition is going to be a lot of fun to watch. All these players they have signed over the past few months and some of these players, they even played in Wilkesbury last year, they're all gunning for these NHL jobs.

Starting point is 00:07:24 And some players that are going to get cut from this roster are going to get jobs somewhere else. I kind of view it in the same way I view the Stewards preseason when they were cutting down their roster to 53. There were a lot of really good players that were let go there that got latched onto other teams. I kind of see it the same way here with the Penguins where some guys are going to get waived

Starting point is 00:07:47 or maybe even traded that are, are going to be regulars on other teams. And I just can't wait to get this thing rolling. Yeah, and that's the biggest thing for me. Last point, because I know we've got to get moving here, is that this is a really smart move to me by the penguins of what they're doing right now in the lead-up to camp. When you're a franchise in the position that the penguins are,

Starting point is 00:08:12 your stars are getting a little older, but they're still very talented. They're going to be locked in. You've got some high-end talent on the roster. you need to have internal competition. You need to have basically your role players fighting for spots. You don't want to have that comfort everywhere on the roster. Yes, Crosby, Malkin, Lattang, Carlson, Gensel, Smith, all those guys.

Starting point is 00:08:37 Yes, they're locked in. They're playing. They're on the team. They're going to be the big contributors, the guys you put the saddle on. But now everyone around them has to be at their best, not just to, not just to play, to make the roster. And that's a net positive to me for this team coming into camp. I agree.

Starting point is 00:08:59 Again, this is going to be a lot of fun to monitor when camp gets started next week and goes into the weeks after. Then all of a sudden you'll be in October when the season will start. So I'm really excited for it. Let's see how Colin White does at camp. But that'll wrap up this first segment. Coming up in the second segment, Tom Mastatar has finally signed a contract, but no, it is not with the Pittsburgh Penguins pattern. I can discuss that.

Starting point is 00:09:24 But first, before we get to that, we got to dive into Fandu football season has officially kicked off, and Fandu is giving you the chance to win all season long. Right now, when you bet on a Super Bowl winner, you can get bonus bets every time they win in the regular season. Just pick any team to win at all, and you'll get bonus bets for every victory. You can use these bonus bets on spreads, player props, over unders, and so much more. So visit fandul.com slash locked on and start earning bonus bets with America's number one sports book. That's fandle.com slash locked on. That's fandle, the official sports betting partner of the NFL and locked on. All right. We're back here on this episode of the

Starting point is 00:10:09 Lockedon Penguins podcast. I am Hunter Hode's. That is Patrick Dam. So Tomas Tar finally off the market, but no, he is not heading east. He signs with the Colorado avalanche one year deal where $1.5 million. It's funny when Elliot Friedman dropped some news on Twitter on Monday, saying like, oh, Tatar Switch agents hearing he's probably going to be heading east. Well, that lasted barely over 24 hours because he's heading west now. Also said on his podcast, I think a couple people tweeted it out. I don't remember who it was, but I saw it was out there on social media that he heard that it was going to be the penguins, but then something changed, and that he said it was not going to be the penguins. And frankly, they don't really have any

Starting point is 00:10:49 salary cap space right now. So there's basically no way that they were going to sign him at this point. But still, Pat, I'm definitely at least a little bit disappointed. I would have loved seeing Tatar in the bottom six. We dedicated a whole episode to it about a few weeks ago. Seeing someone come onto this team score 20, 25 goals, well, maybe not 25 goals, but you know, 17, 20, 20 goals, get you 40, 45 points in a bottom six rule. That is what this team, I think, is really lacking right now. And I do think Kao Dubus might be regretting. this at some point during the season, if some of these bottom six options don't work out the way he wants them to because you build this bottom six to defend first, score second. But if that

Starting point is 00:11:31 backfires and you don't get that second thing, which is the scoring, I think he's going to be wishing they signed to talk or someone else that can really give them some goals down there. Yeah, this is, we kind of talked about it when we had listener questions about if you can kind of piece through what Kyle Dubus has done this off season. Like, what don't you like? What do you like? And we both said, like, listen, there needs to be some more depth scoring. But other than that, it's been a close to flawless off season for him in his first year.

Starting point is 00:12:03 I also look at this as, you know, maybe the negotiation didn't go the way that either side wanted it to go when it comes to TAR because he obviously switched agents. because he got to September 12th or well, September 11th since yesterday was his last day before he signed without a deal. And at that point, you really can only blame your agent. And switching agents now, who knows what the ask started to become. And it's going to be really easy for everybody to look at what he signed in Colorado for and say, oh, my God, why didn't Pittsburgh do that? Well, maybe that was the penguins don't have the same amount of space right now that the avalanche do because they're without Landisog for I think the entire season or at the very least until late into the year because he had to get surgery.

Starting point is 00:12:56 So they have a lot more roster flexibility right now than the penguins do. So even though it's only $1.5 million for one year, the penguins currently sit over the cap by a little under $80,000. They don't have the space. Yeah. So essentially that would push them to $2 million over the cap. And that's a lot harder to get out of than $80 grand. So regardless, I do think that there is going to be a regret on Kyle Dubus's part and the Penguins part about not getting depth scoring for the bottom six. But I also think that the ask from Tomas to Tar's camp might not have matched the offer from the Penguins and Kyle Duvus's

Starting point is 00:13:40 camp. And again, I say this all the time. We hem and haw about contracts. The bad ones, can't blame on the player. You sign the best offer you're given. The deals like this one, it's circumstance and calorie, salary. Talking about diet, talking about salary cap here, Pat, not diets, salary cap space and not the team. So this one's tough. I would love to have them, but he wouldn't fit under the salary cap right now. And he's not so great of a player that you move heaven and earth to get him. And he was potentially asking for something higher at the time that the Penguins wanted to sign him with that old agent compared to now when he switched agents.

Starting point is 00:14:23 And I think his new agent was probably like, okay, you've definitely been squeezed in this market. As have quite a few other players, you're going to have to take a little bit of a cheap deal, which, you know, Penguins, I think it was too late at this point for them to even do that. before next year, say you, you know, ball out on the ice, you get 40, 45 pounds. Okay, maybe you can go out next year, sign a multi-year deal, something like that. But that just wasn't available to him just because he was getting squeezed.

Starting point is 00:14:48 And I do think if this bottom six plan fails from Kyle Dubus, he is going to have to go out there, whether it's January, February, or just before the trade deadline in March, and get a score that can give you some more timely goals when the top six is not out on the ice. I still think that's going to be their main need by the time the deadline rolls around. Well, and there's two other ways. There's two ways to look at this right now, the way I see it, is one, like you said, this team's big moves are probably going to come at the trade deadline. They're probably going to have to give something up to get something back, which is how it always works. But I do think there's a good enough roster in place right now to put them in both a playoff contention, if not

Starting point is 00:15:34 division contending position. Also, they're in a really good spot going into next year. Most of the big guns that they need for this roster to succeed are locked up. A bunch of depth guys are coming off the cap next year and the cap goes up next year. So that also goes back to a guy like Tatar where if you're a guy who's still on the market or was still on the market late into free agency, your agent is saying, listen, Take a one-year deal. Take a haircut this year because there's going to be a nice jump in salary cap next year.

Starting point is 00:16:14 A bunch of teams are going to have space. A bunch of teams who are in the rebuild process right now and getting ready to jump into contention are going to have space and openings. So you'll be able to go get paid next summer. So as much as we lament that there isn't a lot of bottom six scoring right now for the penguins, going into next season, they're going to have most of the, their key pieces outside of Jake Gensel locked up. They'll have space to give Gensel a reasonable, if not a little overly expensive extension, which I imagine they're going to do.

Starting point is 00:16:47 And then they're going to have salary cap space to go out and get an impact player or two. So should we be holding this team accountable for this season? Absolutely. The goal is to get back to the playoffs and make a run. But the space to remake this roster next off season is going to be a lot more. than it was this past summer. Right. And especially if that cap does go up,

Starting point is 00:17:11 even if it's just by $3 million, something like that, that's going to make all the difference in the world for a team, even as cap strapped as the penguins are. So that would be something to monitor. Also, Tomas Tatar is going to get top six minutes with the avalanche,

Starting point is 00:17:24 I would assume this year, just because Linuskog is out. Maybe he's not playing with Ranton or McKinnon at times, but he could be playing on the second line. That's still a good second line winger to have with Landis Kog out. Yeah. And I mean, you look at the Penguins Cap friendly page right now as it stands at this moment.

Starting point is 00:17:41 Going into next off season, they have just under $19 million in space. So with everybody locked up and then a potential Jake Gensel extension, you're looking at $12, $13 million open. Yeah. Or maybe $10, a little and around that. And that's two, three very good impact players with all of your core pieces locked up. So again, we want to see them make a run this year, get back to the postseason. But next year, Kyle Dubus, with that much space to play with and a lot of good players headed to market next summer, we may not recognize this team next season outside of the big names. I don't think that's too off base, in my opinion.

Starting point is 00:18:27 But, you know, the Gensel extension, I think it's probably going to be around the $9 million number, I think. And I know some people are going to be spooked by that. I get it. You're extending a player well into his 30s. It's a seven or eight year term. I get it. But I think they are probably going to lean towards doing it compared to not doing it because then if you lose him, kind of figure out a way to replace 40 or 45 goals out of your

Starting point is 00:18:49 lineup. And that's difficult because these type of players do not grow on trees. But that's a discussion for another day, I think. But that'll wrap up this second segment. Coming up in the final segment, who are the locks for the bottom six this season? There probably aren't too many considering the competition. I and I are going to give you our thoughts on that right after this. All right.

Starting point is 00:19:11 We're back in this episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes, one of your host, Hunter Hodes. That is Patrick Damp, my co-host. I don't know why I keep screwing that up. It's a second consecutive episode where that has happened. But anyway... Listen, listen, I'm just the co-host. You don't got to put me on a pedestal here.

Starting point is 00:19:27 I'm just on this train riding it. He's the real MVP of the show right now. But in terms of the locks for the bottom six, We've said this all off season. So many names heading into camp. If I had to guess right now, the only players who are pure locks to make it out of the bottom six guys,

Starting point is 00:19:46 you ready, Pat? Noel Achari, with that contract he signed, I think he's a definite lock. I would also say Drew O'Connor is a lock. I might get a little bit of flack for that, but I think he is a lock to make this team after how he played last year and now. I think everyone should be ready for him

Starting point is 00:20:03 to get a full look over an 82 game season. Those two are the locks. and Jeff Carter. I hate to say it, but he's a lock to make this team this season. Outside of that, you know, maybe I'll say Matt Nietto is also locked

Starting point is 00:20:16 because he signed a short-term deal. But those are the main three that I think are true locks to make it out of camp. Would you agree with that? Disagree? Yeah, those are four names I would agree with. And I would add a fifth in Lars Eller.

Starting point is 00:20:32 He's going to be your third line center this year. So, I mean, that's essentially five names. So you're essentially looking for one spot here. And this is what we've been talking about is in what I said in the first segment. There is going to be serious competition for the bottom six of this training camp. So that's going to bring out a lot of the best in a lot of players. Or it's also going to show us who really deserves to be here and who doesn't. because, you know, if Pauline White shows up and has a big camp, that's a guy that, you know,

Starting point is 00:21:09 maybe you look at it, look to keep him there. You still have Alex Nealander, who again, we've talked about on this show. It's put up or shut up time. He has to become a consistent contributing NHL player. And then you still have a ton of guys in Wilkeshire that want to make this team full time. I mean, you still, Vinnie Hino Stroses down there. he's not a name that pops off the page, but he's a bottom six player. You know, Valerie Pustin is another guy who they look at to be a contributor,

Starting point is 00:21:40 and he's going to want to make the team out of camp. So you also have Andreas Yonson, who is another guy who has some serious NHL experience. Sam Poulan's back. And I know we talked about him last episode with him going to the prospect tournament, but there's a lot of players that are on this roster. And there's a name that we're forgetting, an old friend who's back. Radium Zahornah's in this organization again. Right.

Starting point is 00:22:06 That's another guy who, in limited time with the penguins a couple seasons back, made an impact. Was it a big one? No, but he was mostly effective when he was in the lineup. So you have a lot of names new and old and young that want to make this roster. And in some cases, need to make this roster to become what they're expected to be in an NHL contributor. So again, looking to camp this year, the two things to watch the most are the battle for a couple of bottom six positions and the sixth and seventh defenseman spots. Because even though individually these names don't jump off the page at you and don't get you overly excited, they are going to force a lot of players on this roster who may have been comfortable the past couple years to feel a little discomfort and have to earn their spot. You forgot the backup goalie jump, too, between Magnus Helberg and Alex Adelkevich,

Starting point is 00:23:03 but I do think Adelkevich is probably going to win that. And I can't believe I actually forgot Lars Eller as a lock. That's just embarrassing for me. I think, yeah, of those names I mentioned, I would say I would put Eller maybe above Nyetto, I guess, but it's still pretty close. I would put Neetto in there, this five out of the six, but Eller is definitely a lot. You can tell. They brought Eller in to be a third-line center, which I know structurally,

Starting point is 00:23:29 for the roster, like, yes, third line center is bottom six, but I also look at that as when it's a guy like Lars Eller who's been in the league a while, has a body of work you can point to, that's why you brought him in. He is part of your center depth, which, yes, again, third line center is bottom six, but I kind of give center depth its own kind of characterization, just because your center depth is some of the most important depth you have on your roster, because you're going to have to lean on them in some big moments regardless. I still think of him as a fourth-flying center. I think the people who think he can be a third-line center this year are going to be

Starting point is 00:24:06 gravely mistaken because when I watch him, I don't really see someone who's that fast at the skater and his offense is just stride up. He's really defensively. Don't get me wrong. And I mean, at the end of the day, like if he doesn't pan out as a third-line center, I mean, you can always give Nolachari a look. Right. I can always give a couple other guys a look and just see what you got,

Starting point is 00:24:27 especially with some of your younger talent and Wolks Bear that seems to be coming along. So, I mean, to me, that's a flexible signing at the end of the day. Because in a pinch or even if he earns it, he can be your third line center. And if Lars Eller is your fourth line center, that's not a bad place to be. No. As long as you have a good third line center that can both score and defend, I will be happy with Lars Eller as the team's fourth line center. I just don't think he's in the right point in his career where he can be an effective third line

Starting point is 00:24:57 This is not him during his prime Washington years. For example, then you have the other guys, Pat, you kind of discussed it a little bit earlier, who were going to be really fighting for a job. And that is Vinnie Hino Strozza, Colin White, Andreas Yonson, Voltaire Pusin, Sam Poulan, Alex Neelander, you've got six guys right there fighting for only one or two roster spots. Maybe you want to throw Matt Nietto in there, too, even though he signed a short-term deal, but, you know, he also could be a lock. We don't know Drew O'Connor.

Starting point is 00:25:24 You can flip-flop him if you want. But all those guys fighting for only a couple spots, most of the ones, again, outside of maybe, I put O'Connor in my locked one. I put Niedo kind of in the middle. But overall, a lot of these, I think adequate NHL players fighting for only a couple roster spots, it's going to be really tough. It is. And that's what I think this team really needs at the end of the day right now is.

Starting point is 00:25:57 they need to, you know, to cross Pittsburgh sports here. You know, I always think of Mike Tomlin when he said you shouldn't seek comfort. You should be comfortable in the uncomfortable. And for what this organization wants to achieve and where they want to get back to, they need a little bit of that. They need a little bit of adversity. They need competition because it kind of felt like in the last year or two with this roster, they got a little comfortable.

Starting point is 00:26:27 They felt like, hey, we're the Pittsburgh Penguins. We have Sidney Crosby. We're just going to punch our ticket to the dance. And when we get there, we'll see what happens. Now you got punched in the mouth and didn't make playoffs last year. And you had a lot of heads at the top, deservedly so rolled. But that's a message, in my opinion, to this team of like, listen, you underachieved. and we held the people at the top accountable.

Starting point is 00:26:59 So that bullet has been fired. So now it's on you guys. And you're going to be under a microscope this year, especially because we went out and got you Eric Carlson. We have the big guns locked up. Now you need to take these tolls and use them. I think at some point the microscope will also be on the head coach. I know he is just really underway with his latest extension.

Starting point is 00:27:23 I mean, he signed it a little over a year ago, but this is when it really kicks in. But I think more and more people are going to start looking to him if the results start to be, or continue to be, I guess, a bit mixed, if that's how you want to say it. But I believe that will do it for this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. Thank you all so much for listening slash watching this one. Pat and I will be back with another episode for you all on Wednesday,

Starting point is 00:27:44 and then we'll be back on Friday to wrap up this week. And the final three weeks, or final three shows a week, I should say then, Pat's doing daily episodes for the first time with me starting on Monday. And we're doing that all the way until next July. So this is going to be a lot of fun. Campus next week, regular seasons about three and a half, four weeks away. It is going to be here before you know it. Keep it right here on Locked on Penguins for your daily coverage of the local hockey club.

Starting point is 00:28:12 Again, thank you all so much for listening slash watching and we'll be back on Wednesday.

Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Who are "locks" for the Pittsburgh Penguins bottom six this season?

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