Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Will Johan Larsson sign? Plus a way-too-early look at next year's lineup!

Episode Date: July 15, 2022

Is Johan Larsson going to be a Pittsburgh Penguin? There was nothing new to report on that front on Thursday, which has led Hunter to believe that he won't be signing. That said, Hunter does look at what he would bring to the Penguins lineup if he does get signed. He looks at his defensive ability and how he clogs up the defensive zone, plus looks at what he's produced at throughout his career. He then looks at what line he'd fit best on before moving on to some updates on a potential defenseman trade. Hunter brings up that the Penguins HAVE TO get an impact forward in return, preferably a finisher since this team hasn't done much to replace some of the goals that were scored last year. Which defenseman would bring the most back in a trade? He looks at a few different trade scenarios and then makes a bold prediction about how many defensemen will be moved out. Finally, Hunter does a quick look at the "way too early" lines for next season and what he would do if he were Mike Sullivan (it has the defensive pairings in if both MP28 and Marino are moved).Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello there, happy Thursday getting to another end of the week here. This is the second to last week of five full episodes. Last week we did the final one until this show goes down to three a week for today's show. We're going to get into the Johann Larson stuff. Look like the Penguins are going to sign him, but then it's been basically crickets ever since. I'm going to go into if it does end up happening, why it will be a really good signing.

I think for the Penguins also going to get into why this team right now needs a lot more goals. for next year, why they need another finisher, which is why they got to crush that trade with a defenseman whenever that does happen. And then hopefully at the end, I'm going to get into my way too early lines and pairings based on what we have right now for next season. So that's all coming up right after this drop. You're Locked on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network. your team every day

Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast I am your host, Hunter Hodes and you're going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes can also follow the shows Twitter at L.O.Rs for Penguins and of course thank you all so much for making this your first lesson of the day.

So, you know, right during Ron Hacksdoll's press conference, actually it was right after he started it. Elliot Freeman said, you know, sounds like it's going to be Johann Larson to Pittsburgh. I was like, oh, you know, this is actually pretty exciting, pretty really good defensive forward. I think he is someone who I think a lot of fans hoped Zach Astor Mies was going to turn into, especially I think from an offensive standpoint, someone who, you know, can still chip in on the score sheet, despite being one of the best defensive players in the league.

And, you know, you look at, you know, the chart from J. Fresh Hockey with, you know, has all of his data on there, you know, 68th percentile for Windsorubble basement. He ranks in the 99th percentile for even strength defense. That means only 1% of his peters are better than him when it comes to being on the ice defensively. He is that good at suppressing shots and chances and all that other stuff. Offensively, 38th percentile at 5V, so not the greatest there. But for finishing, 50th percentile.

So he's smack in the middle in terms of finishing goals four per 60, 44th percentile penalty kill. I know it's only in the 22nd percentile, but he's usually been known for someone that can play on the penalty kill. So, you know, if this were too happening, and I know it hasn't been announced yet, I don't know if he's in their plans considering what Ron Hextall said yesterday. I would be a big fan of it.

It's a great defensive player. I think he would do really well in the Sullivan style with what he likes to run. I think he will be a very great improvement for the third line. Someone who can chip in offensively, whether it's at 5-5 or potentially on the penalty, get with some short-hand goals, someone who can just take chances away

every time he's on the ice. I think he would definitely be part of like a shutdown line for the Penguins. If he were to be signed, I don't think he would be that expensive. I think he would maybe be like a one or two-year deal for a couple million per year if you do multi-year. If you just have to do one year,

I think he can probably get, you know, to two and a half million at the most. I think that will be a really shrewd signing. And, you know, I actually show me that the penguins are using data or, I guess, you know, more underlying numbers in their decisions. You go to natural stat trick from this past season. So he played 29 games, Arizona, 14 games in Washington. And, you know, when he went to Washington, you know, he played very well at 5B5.

When he was on the ice, the caps had 55% of the shot attempts for, right around 50-50 for actual goals. but also 57% of scoring chances, 61% of the high danger chances, and he was also only on the ice for two high danger goals against in 14 games. If we go to the playoffs here and look at that. So all six played in all six games for the Caps against the Panthers. Struggle a little bit just because I think the Panthers, you know,

they woke up as a series going on. The Caps only had 42% of a shot attempts when he was on the ice. Only 33% of the actual goals for, 40s. 37% of the scoring chances. High danger, it was about 50-50, only two high-danger goals against when he was there. So, you know, I think that's partly due to the cap, just not generating enough offense in that series.

But, you know, when he was on night during the regular season, he played well. You know, he's always been one of the best defensive players, one of the best defense floors, I should say, in the game. You know, again, when he's on there, basically, you know, nothing happens. It's a very low-event hockey, I should say. but I think he would fit this system like a glove.

It's unfortunate that it doesn't seem like it's going to be happy right now. I put a tweet on the Lockdown Penguin's Twitter account saying just like with the alien meme where he's just like sitting like this like, okay, what's going on here? And, you know, Danny Shirey, he asked, text all about it. He's like, can you confirm the report? And he just basically did this. He just had a full smile about it. And he's like, well, then I can confirm Josh Hartwell's going to be a penguin and then stands there smiles.

I'm like, okay, I don't know if there's just gamesmanship there or he was just talking with the agent and didn't go anywhere. I don't know. You know, it kind of reeks of what happened with Nick Deloree. I want to say that was last year. Last April, I remember when it was right before the trade deadline. And Freeman said, I'm hearing Nick DeLoree in Pittsburgh and no one else was supporting it. And I was like, okay, that's weird. And then he went back to him, oh, sorry, I'm hearing that the penguins were in discussions for him.

but I don't know where that's going at this point. So, you know, I think that could be a similar situation from what is happening here. But again, you know, if the Penguins are to sign him at some point during the offseason, you know, I think I would be a big fan of it, you know, whether he's playing with Jeff Carter in the third line, maybe you stick with Teddy Blugher. I think that will be a heck of a duo. Now, we all know how good Bluger is in the defensive zone. He also, I think, brings a nice offensive punch.

I think putting Larson with him, you know, that would be pretty solid, especially if you want to move Blugher up to the third line, maybe move Carter down to the fourth line and see if he can, you know, be better with his minutes there. You know, I think that would be something that, you know, would be worth looking into. But, you know, nothing right now. It was very quiet in Penguin Land today.

The development camp actually wrapped up today with the scrimmage. It looked like Owen Pickering was very good on the ice from what was being tweeted out. The video, I think that was tweeted out by a couple of the reporters. that were there. So that wrapped up today. So now moving forward, you know, it's all about the Penguins

and seeing if they can make a move with their defensemen forward, you know, getting into that other score, you know, maybe making a free agent splash, something like that. And, you know, speaking of a free agent splash, the Capitals made one today.

They went after a player that, you know, I was hoping the Penguins would go after and Dylan Strom. You know, I think, you know, he's one year to 3.5 million. He can play center or wing, someone who, I believe, had almost 50 points

with the Chicago bracket. Cox. Actually, you know, and that's that those are those are good stats on a really bad team. Yeah, 22 goals, 48 points in 69 games. The Black Hawk said to this guy, yeah, we'll let you go. We're not going to pick up your qualifying offer, even though it was 3.6 million and the cap signed him for one times 3.5. So 100K difference. It was like, really Chicago, you really couldn't do that. That's good move by the caps. They're probably going to put him, I think, at second line center until Nicholas Baxter was ready to go if he's ready to go. to go at all. So, you know,

and Elliot did say there was a lot of interest in him. I hope the penguins ran on him. I wish they could have landed in him because, you know, he's definitely a finisher. And with how this team needs to replace goals right now, I think he could have given them a big offensive punch next season. And, you know, that's going to be my main topic coming up here in this next segment for how the penguins know they need that finisher

and why it's prudent to get one, especially if they're looking to trade. a defenseman. So that's coming up here in this next segment. But before I get to that, our next partner has a product I use literally every day. I start taking Athletic Greens because, you know, I didn't have time in the morning sometimes. Wanted more energy when I would wake up. You know, I wanted better gut health. But, you know, what you're probably now wondering, what is this stuff? With one delicious scoop of alphetic greens, resorbing 75 high-quality vitamins, minerals, whole foods, sore sleeper foods, and probiotics to help you start your day right.

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You can also follow the shows Twitter at Linner-Hoddy's. And, of course, thank you all so much for taking time out of your day to listen to this podcast. podcast. So, you know, the more discussions about trades with the penguins heated up today. I think Elliot Freeman went on Vancouver radio, confirmed that the Canucks have been still trying to trade for John Marino, but, you know, Elliot did say last week, though, that he said the penguins were close to moving Marino, but it wasn't to Vancouver. So maybe it was Ottawa, somewhere else. This is what I'll say about the Marino stuff. If you were looking to trade Marino, it better not be for futures.

You know, one thing that did concern me when Ron Hextall was speaking to the media on Wednesday was like, you know, after he said, maybe trading for 40s like, you know, we could move a defenseman free futures and something like that. I'm like,

with where the lineup is at right now, you better not be trading any of those defensemen for futures. I really don't care about, you know, getting a third round pick in 2024 or, I don't know, a second round pick in 2024,

something like that. I want a player who can help me win right now. Sidney Crosby and Ganyi Malkin and Crystal saying they are not getting any younger. So spare me that stupid future stuff. Sure, do you get cap space? Yeah, that's a nice part. But, you know, I would rather have someone who can be a finisher and you can contribute on the score sheet rather than just basically a coin if a pick is even ever going to make it to the NHL.

And if he does make it to the NHL, it's several years down the line. point when you know the core you know they're all going to be retired at that point so honestly who cares about getting you know features just go out and get someone who can score um so for marino and you know he'll definitely i think have a lot more trade value than almost any other defenseman on the team i think outside of crystal tang and mike matheson he is the defenseman that has the most trade value on the team he's young good defensively in his own zone if someone could also probably think that they can unlock the offensive ability in his game. And I think teams will pay out the butt for that.

I think they will be willing to get the potential second or third line score to get Marino. And that would be the only, you know, type of player that I will be interested in getting for him. And which is why, you know, I definitely come around on the idea of getting J.T. Miller from Vancouver and bringing him home. And yes, I've heard from around the grapevine that he badly wants to play in Pittsburgh next year.

and, you know, for a while after that, the penguins can somehow lock them up to an extension or if they can just get a trade package together, a trade form even though it's probably not a match, but, you know, you never know if Tim Rutherford and Patrick Alvine. You know, I've also heard the rumors for Connor Garland. You know, I like Garland, but, you know, are you winning that trade if you're,

if Marino is going the other way? You know, I think that's something that, you know, not enough fans are discussing. You know, I mean, he's a decent finisher, but, you know, I'd much rather have Miller. over Garland at that point. And again, it's just all goes back to my point that right now the Penguins lack another finisher.

Your plan for next season, this I'm talking to Penguins, upper management, the coach staff, and all these people here, you cannot go into next season with your thinking of, oh, this forward group is good enough because we expect Ricard Raquel to score 20 to 25 next year. We expect Jason Zucker to score 25 next year. And we expect Capnin to maybe score 50. 15 to 20, probably 20 or something like that. Chances are all of that, that's not going to happen.

Zucker, I do think he has 20 to 25 goal scoring in him because he's done it in his career. But obviously the biggest thing, his health. He hasn't stayed healthy at all during his penguin senior. When he has been healthy, he has produced. But it's all just keeping him on the ice. The potential has always been there. But until he actually proves that he can be on the ice,

I'm going to be skeptical that he can put up those kind numbers. Presby Kappa Kavana. I think he is who he is at this point. You know, even during his good season when Rutherford traded for him a couple years ago, you know, what do you have? Like 30 points in 40 games or something like that? I mean, okay, that's almost a point per game, but, you know, only 10 of those were goals.

I mean, you know, last season, you know, hit double digit goals again was better defensively, but still, it's not good enough for someone who, you know, they gave up quite a bit to get that player. You know, you also look at Ricard Raquel. I definitely think he has 20 to 25 goals scoring potential in him, but, you know, how is that going to happen? Are you going to pull with Cindy Crosby? Is he going to play with if you know what if you're Malkin?

Is he going to stay healthy? You know, you got to account for all those things because right now, you know, the Penguins, they have to replace just about 40 goals off this team next year. Think about it. Evan Rodriguez, he is right now off this team. He scored what, 20 goals last year, right around there. Same with Dan Hinen, 18 goals last year. That's right around.

You guessed it. 38 to 40 goals. And right now, they don't have a couple players on their roster that can do that. Josh Harkspot, who they signed yesterday, he is not going to help to, you know, contributing to 38 to 40 goals. He's probably just going to be in the press box most nights. He's just basically a 13th to 14 filler forward. It's 900K.

You know, he's not going to really do anything. You know, you have to go out there in free agency and sign some of the little cap space you have. Or, again, in a trade, when you have to move a defenseman, you have to go out and get a Peter Sniper that can score maybe 20 to 22 goals for you. And that's where, you know, moving Marino makes the most sense for that. But I still do think if they end up moving Pedersen, I do think he can bring back a solid player that can play on the third line that can help contribute. You know, Ron Hechdahl, he made some really nice signings after the free agent, the day. they won a free agency last year, you know, and those players, they were able to come in on cheap deals and produce. You know, I don't know if that's in the cards here. You know, where's this year's

getting Hinen, where is this year's at Rodriguez? They both have not signed yet as of this recording, which is, you know, right around 804 on Thursday night. And, you know, it has not happened yet. So, you know, we'll have to see if the penguins do circle back to one or both of those players. I honestly would not mind if Rodriguez did come back because I really enjoyed watching Rodriguez this year. And, you know, I think the big thing for him is, you know, can he be consistent again? I shouldn't say again, but, you know,

can he be consistent for a full season instead of just showing up for that first half and then being bad in the second half and then showing up again in the playoffs? You know, what is the real version of Rodriguez? But, yeah, that just basically wraps up my thoughts on this whole, you know, trade discussion here. you know, they've got to get a forward, a pure sniper back that can fill the back of the net

and replace the basically, you know, the 40 goals that they've lost right now that are currently unsigned on the free agent market because, you know, you look at the bottom six right now, you know, sure Jeff Carter is there who scored 18 to 20 next year, but, you know, can you count on him to do that again next year as he gets older? Getting a little bit skeptical. Teddy Blugar, I like him defensively. He has a little bit of an offensive punch. Are you going to rely on him to score 20 next year, 1520?

I'm not really sure, you know, you know, all these other players right now, and the box six, you know, Drew O'Connor, James O'Hourna, you know, et cetera, et cetera, you know, who are going to be the player, Brock McGinn, obviously, you know, who are going to be the players that steps up and give you those goals when it's not the top six

basically doing them every night basis? You know, the last couple of years, the payments have had one of the deepest, you know, forward groups in the league. two years in a row. They've been very deep. Center, deep on the wings.

Right now, it's lacking a little bit. So I don't think this is far from a finished product. I think there are going to make a couple changes before the season, especially with the trade.

But right now, I definitely think, you know, that bottom six needs a lot more unth when it comes to scoring goals. Now, coming up in the next segment, I'm going to get into the

way too early 2020, 22, 23 lines and pairings. Just basically touch on, you know, what I would do based on right now before any trades are made. But, excuse me, before I get to that, from the people who invented healthy and tasty comes the latest gift to your taste buds. You've probably tried the amazing coconut brownie chunk, Bill Pard, but guess what? Your friends at Billet have given coconut brownie chunk the puff's treatment. That's right.

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Genssel Cindy Crosby and Ricard Raquel I think if you want to get the most out of Raquel and make that AAV worth it I think he should should be on that top line because, you know, the underlying numbers, they were really good when he was there. England's had, I believe, close to 70% of the shot attempts for 60, over 60% of the scoring chances. High danger wise was well over 60%. You know, his hands are very silky.

Obviously, he has one heck of a release, you know, just look at the goal against Detroit late in the regular season. There was that 7-2 win, a little season. Urvina. I think that was before the game against Philadelphia the next day. And, you know, he was just putting on a show on Sin's line. So, you know, there's definitely been added history there. I like what Brian Russ has done on Crosby's line. And, you know, when Sin was healthy in that first round series against the Rangers, you know, they were absolutely dismantling New York every time they were on the next. Gerard Gallant basically had nothing that could stop them. So, you know, That said, I do like Raquel as a better fit because I think he can put the puck in the back of the net a bit more. And I also like his playmaking ability a bit more. Because, you know, I think he'll be good with Malkin and he has put up decent numbers. Which, you know, but, you know, I do think Malkin potentially plays a little bit better with Ross.

He's also put up really good numbers with him. I would like to see more of a sample size with Raquel playing up with Sid. and I think if you do, you're going to see really good results with that. So that means the second line right now, at least, Jason Zucker, Evgeny Malkin and Brian Rust. If Zucker's healthy, I think he can pot 20 to 25. I understand that is probably going to tune off some people on this show. You're probably going to think of me as a doofus.

But, you know, he has the talent. That's never been an issue. We all know what his issue is. I said it about five to ten minutes ago. But I made the bullpresent. He said I thought he was going to stay healthy. Maybe I'll think about making it again this year, but I do think he has the potential to pot 20 to 25. And he's also a great four-trucker, probably one of the top three four-trackers on this team.

He was playing his tail-off in the playoffs for the Penguins. So, you know, and that was when he was hurt. You know, I imagine what he could do, you know, when he's healthy. But, you know, it sounds like his off-season, you know, recovery is going really good right now. and hopefully he's getting over what I was reported on this show was a torn groin after speaking with a couple of people. So, and then obviously with Brian Rust, he can put the puck in the back of the net.

He also is a very nice passer, Malkin. He does it all, scores, puts the puck in the back of the net. You know, he carries the puck into his own zone. He's in his own. Good luck taking the puck off him. And I think you're going to see a very determined Gino next year. For God's sake, the guy was coming off major knees. surgery last year, had 42 points in 41 games.

He was on pace for 84 points over a full season. It was also on points to score close to 40 goals. He now has a full offseason to train and recovery even more. I think you are going to see someone be really ticked off next year. I think he's going to have a big year for the penguin. That's, you know, when we get close to the season, I'm going to have a bowl prediction when I get into that. I think right now on the third line, it's probably going to be Jeff Carter as our third

line center with, I guess, Kasperi Kappanin. on his right wing. Right now, I guess you have Drew O'Connor down there because Heinen and Rodriguez are no longer there. And, you know, O'Connor, I think this is make or break time for him. You know, he's, you know, over, I believe he's, what, 20, 25, 26 at this point. You know, this is a player that, you know, he should be finally putting his, you know, mark on the penguins and saying, I'm going to keep this spot.

for the long haul and not just keep it for, you know, 10 games like he did last year. Obviously, you know, injuries were a part of that. But, you know, I think it's not up or shutout time with him. And I also would say the same for Radine Zohorna, who I think would be a good fit on the fourth line with Teddy Bluger and Brock McGinn. You know, I think McGinn and Bluger right now, you know, Sullivan loves playing them together. He sees them as, you know, two players who can shut down the opposition. I think McGinn, he has a lot to prove next year. I was very high on that signing when it happened.

The Penguins bet big. that his goal scoring and his offensive production was going to continue going into last year. I think they lost that one. They're hoping they probably can get it back because right now, you know, that contract three more years at $2.75 million for a four-finder. That's not super good business if you ask me. And, you know, for Bluger, I want to see more offense from him next year. I think he can definitely, you know, put it on.

But, you know, he's someone who I want to see more of because if he doesn't, you know, I wouldn't be surprised at the Penguins potential, though, to move on for him at some point after next season. Then for Zohorna, I think it's put up our shot up time for him. He's on a one-way deal next year, which means I believe he'll have to clear waivers. Maybe if he's sent down to Wilkesbury and doesn't make the team. So, you know, when you look at those lines, do you all think they need another score? I mean, I would love to push Jason Zulker down the lineup a little bit and put someone else on the beginning Malmkin's left wing. That can really be a good finisher.

this team use, you know, say, you get a finisher in one of the defensive trades and you put him there with Malkin and Ross and then Gensel Grasie or Raquel, you know, you have the making self of a very, very top six and, you know, sure does one of O'Connor or Zohorna go out? Yeah, but, I mean, I still think your forward group at that point, it's not bad, especially if Carter can still score and if Kappan balances back, but still, you know, I think you're banking on, there's a lot of things going right this year. That went wrong last year, to say the least. defensively,

Dumlin-Latang. I don't think Dumlin's going to be the one to get traded, even though I would trade him. I think at this point, you can get a really decent return for him. Players, I mean, teams will definitely pay out the butt

for a player who has won two Stanley Cups and is, you know, good defensively in his own zone and stuff like that. I think you're going to see Matheson with Jan Ruda. I think that will be a really nice pairing. And then, you know, right now I'm going to make a little bit of a bold prediction. I think you're going to see two defensemen. I don't know if,

I don't think they're going to, to go into the season with eight defensemen on the roster. I think you're going to see, if I'm going to say right now, I think you're going to see two of them get moved. And right now, from what I have, I'm going to go POJ in Chad Riedel. I think you might see both Pedersen and Marino. Right now, that is my big bold prediction for the South Sea, is that not one of them will be traded.

I think both of them will be traded, whether one of them is for a future, and then the other one is for an impact forward or potentially two forwards come back. Maybe So Horna and O'Connor are not in the lineup. But, you know, that is what I am thinking of right now. When it comes to the office season, you know, you still have Mark Friedman down there as your number seven. I think that's still a pretty good defensive court. Dumlin, if he balances back, he can form a really great shutdown top pairing with Latang. Matheson does it all in the offensive zone.

Jan Ruda, very stay-at-home defenseman could, you know, underlying numbers in his own zone, someone who can also join the rush at times. I like that as a second pairing. And then, you know, it's also time to see what POJ, can do as a full-time regular NHLer. And Chatter-Reedle, I think he is steady as he goes. I think he was, you know, a little bit gassed down the stretch last year. But I think if you just give him the regular third-d-third-pearing minutes and maybe

scratch him for a few games, if he's getting gassed and you put Mark Treeman in there, who's a pretty good defenseman, you know, I think you live with that at that point. And then, obviously, Tristan Jarre starts in that, and then to Casey DeSmith back some up. So right now, that's my way too early Penguins lineup for next year. Let me know what you all think in the comments on YouTube. you'd DM me on social media and stuff you know do you would you change anything do you think some of these players should be off the team who would you do you expect any of these players to have a bounce back here let me know and i would love to discuss that with you all and you know if

you could add a finisher to this team um when they have to trade a defenseman you know who would that be so um just wanted to have you all think about that before i wrap this up so you know overall again you know that will do it for this episode of the locked on penguins podcast i really appreciate all of you listening to this one. We'll move back with another episode for you all on Friday. We'll see if the payments potentially do something there when it comes to a potential cheap debt signing and frequency, or if they finally make that trade for a defenseman going out.

So I will talk to you all then. Hope you all great rest of your Thursday.