Locked On Titans - Daily Podcast On The Tennessee Titans - AJ Brown Trade Rumors are DEAD, Projected AJ Brown Contract & Comp Pick Formula for 2023!

Episode Date: April 5, 2022

The Tennessee Titans star wide receiver AJ Brown has been in the headlines lately and for a nonsensical reason! Despite the thirst of opposing teams, according to reports on Tuesday, AJ Brown will NOT be traded and isn't even on the market. AS WE ALL EXPECTED. Still was nice to see it officially put into the air though. Tyler discusses the liberating report and why he is glad this conversation can finally end. Looking forward though, what kind of contract will the Titans give AJ Brown to keep him in Nashville? Tyler takes a look at the market and crafts the expected deal. Finally, the Titans received two compensatory picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, so how did they get them and how many will they get in 2023? Tyler goes over what has happened so far and how it indicates the Titans will get zero comp picks next year!Follow Tyler on Twitter @TicTacTitansFollow the show on Facebook @LockedOnTitansPodSubscribe to the Locked On Titans YouTube channel:https://www.youtube.com/c/LockedOnTitansSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.Athletic GreensTo make it easy, Athletic Greens is going to give you a FREE 1 year supply of immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase. All you have to do is visit athleticgreens.com/NFLNETWORK. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Locked on Titans podcast. I am your host, Tyler Rowland. Titans fans, it is a Wednesday edition of the Locked on Titans podcast. On today's show, we are finally going to put all the A.J. Brown trade noise to rest. We're going to pour one out and say R.I.P. for the dumbest off-season rumor that we have heard so far. And the main reason that A.J. Brown was in those trade rumors is because of the potential monster contract he is supposed to receive. But what will that contract look like?

I'm going to go through market comparisons. I'm going to go through statistical comparisons and tell you exactly what A.J. Brown's big time contract with the Titans should look like. Finally, we'll cap off the show by talking about where the Titans stand right now with 2023 compensatory picks based on what's happened in free agency so far. So a lot to discuss on a Wednesday edition of the Locked on Titans podcast. Let's get it! You are Locked on Titans podcast. Let's get it. You are Locked on Titans, your daily Tennessee Titans podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast

Network, your team every day. Titans fans, it is a Wednesday edition of the Locked on Titans podcast. We're going to put those A.J. Brown trade rumors to rest. We are going to talk about what A.J.'s contract with the Titans is going to look like. rest. We are going to talk about what AJ's contract with the Titans is going to look like, and we're going to talk about the compensatory pick formula and how it looks for the Titans this far into free agency. Before we get into today's show, I do got to thank you guys for making the Locked on Titans podcast your first listen every day. If this is your first ever listen to the Locked on Titans podcast, make sure you subscribe on whatever platform you do stream. You're going to find the show

on all platforms and always free. Remember, I am putting out daily, Monday through Friday, Tennessee Titans content, not only during the season, but all year long. So again, make sure you subscribe on whatever platform you do stream.

That includes the Locked on Titans YouTube channel. Subscribe over there. Smash that notification bell so you know when the show goes live every day. Smash that thumbs up button if you're watching on YouTube right now. Follow me on social media at Tic Tac Titans. Follow the show on Facebook at Locked on Titans Pod.

But with all the housekeeping out of the way, let's dive into today's big story. And that is the end of these stupid A.J. Brown trade rumors. We got a report from Diana Russini from ESPN, who is just incredibly locked in to the Tennessee Titans. She clearly has the ear of John Robinson, of Mike Vrabel. She's getting her information directly from the top of the chain in Tennessee. And this gave all Titans fans great comfort right here. But Diana Rossini's tweet,

and you can see it live on the YouTube show right now. She says this, quote, the Tennessee Titans are not shopping or taking calls on wide receiver A.J. Brown per sources. John Robinson. GM John Robinson made it clear at the owners meeting they are currently working towards keeping Brown a Titan for the long term. I'm told this has not changed.

And it hasn't changed, folks. Nothing has changed. Remember at the owners meeting, John Robinson said, AJ Brown is a Titan. We want AJ Brown to be a Titan. Mike Vrabel talked about his importance to the team. And people just decided not to listen.

Because why? Offseason talking points. You know, hey, make up a couple rumors, I'll write a couple articles about it. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Nonsense. It was always nonsense. I said it was nonsense. hey, make up a couple rumors, I'll write a couple articles about it, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Nonsense. It was always nonsense.

I said it was nonsense. And the only reason that I'm talking about it again today, because the last time I talked about it, I said that was the only time that I would talk about it. But the only reason that I'm talking about it today is to officially put it to bed. It's officially put to bed. Diana Rossini, right there. They're not trading him.

They're not shopping him. They're not shopping him. They're not taking calls. They're working on an extension. Mike Vrabel and John Robinson said that at the league meetings just last week. Okay? It's nonsense. I do want to also point out that a report from

Mike Giardi on NFL Network, it was a video, but he said this, quote, I think you'll eventually see a deal struck. He also said that both sides wanted to get a deal done. So I think that we are far and away closer to an A.J. Brown contract extension than we are to an A.J. Brown trade.

Get out of here with that. A.J. Brown will be a Titan. You know who I'm most happy for with all this coming to an A.J. Brown trade. Get out of here with that. A.J. Brown will be a Titan. You know who I'm most happy for with all this coming to an end? Is A.J. Brown himself. It must suck to see your name in all these trade rumors knowing you don't want to leave,

knowing you want to stay with your team. Certain fans are coming out, yeah, we'll let him go. We don't want to pay him what he needs to be paid. And seeing all that, that has to be terrible what he needs to be paid. And seeing all that, that has to be terrible. That has to be terrible. But either way,

this is what AJ had to say earlier this week. Quote, tired of all of this, just like y'all. We're all tired of it, AJ. And I'm glad that per Diana Rossini directly from John Robinson

we can finally all be done with it and move on with our lives AJ Brown is going to be a Tennessee type so pour one out for Rich Cimini who covers the Jets who keeps trying to push this even after that he retweeted it and said,

AJ Brown's not available, but if he ever was, I bet the Jets would be interested, I believe. Nonsense. Just pure nonsense. Always was, always will be. AJ Brown will be a Tennessee Titan for the long term. But what will his contract look like with these crazy wide receiver deals going on around the NFL?

How do you pay A.J. Brown? Well, I'm going to dive into so much information to explain why I think I know what his deal is going to look like. We're going to use market comparisons. We're going to use top end of the market. We're going to use like. We're going to use market comparisons. We're going to use top end of the market. We're going to use stats. We're going to look at everything. And I have the figures ready to show you.

So I'm excited to go over those with you guys before we get into those contract details. I do want to tell you guys a little bit about Shady Rays. Shady Rays is an independent sunglasses company that gives you the features of a $200 pair of sunglasses for a fraction of the price. That means you get polarized lenses, well-constructed durable frames,

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And we're going to use some data to kind of get to where I think the contract terms are going to be. We also are going to cap off today's show talking about the Titans' compensatory pick formula from this free agency session how it impacts next year's draft so we'll talk about that all that also do want to let you guys know that on tomorrow's show we are going to begin the 2022

NFL draft scouting process here on the Locked on Titans podcast we're going to be talking about quarterback which could be a potential option for the Titans in the first round. So make sure that you tune in for that. Stay locked on to the Locked on Titans podcast.

It's free and available on all platforms, guys. No reason not to subscribe. Moving forward, I do want to thank you guys for making the Locked on Titans podcast your first listen every day. Now, check out the Locked on NFL podcast. I am one of the Locked On NFL podcast. I am one of the hosts of the daily show.

It's Monday through Friday. You get all your national NFL news in under 30 minutes, free and available on all platforms. Check out the Locked On NFL podcast. But let's start here. I think that A.J. Brown's contract is going to be five years, $120 million with $60 million guaranteed. That would make him the fourth highest paid wide receiver with per year average, average per year. He would be fourth out of wide receivers,

with per year average, average per year, he would be fourth out of wide receivers. And it would mean the fifth highest amount of guaranteed money at wide receiver in the NFL. So A.J. Brown would basically be getting paid as a top five wide receiver. Why did I come to five years, 120 million with 60 million guaranteed? Well, let's start here.

Who are the top contracts at the top of the market? Tyreek Hill just signed. He got $30 million per year and 72 million guaranteed. Devontae Adams got $28 million a year with 65 million dollars guaranteed. DeAndre Hopkins who signed his deal in 2020 and remember, inflation. If DeAndre Hopkins signed a deal right now it would be higher than the deal

that he signed in 2020. 60 million dollars guaranteed 27 million dollars per year on average. So that's the top three contracts by far. Hopkins, Adams, Tyreek, which when all healthy, might be the three best wide receivers in the NFL. I think there's a fair argument there.

With like, you know, Justin Jefferson has to be considered up there, Stephon Diggs as well. So, you know, those three guys, far and away above. Now you go to the fourth deal at the top end, and it's Michael Thomas who signed it in 2019. $60 million guaranteed, $20 million average per year. Amari Cooper in 2020, same time as Hopkins. $60 million guaranteed, $20 million per year.

So those are the top end of the market. Now, Michael Thomas signed his deal in 2019. Amari Cooper signed his deal in 2020. So AJ Brown is probably a little bit below in terms of value, what those guys were doing at that time. But with inflation, things are going to be a little bit higher. That's always something to consider when you're signing a deal in 2022 and you're comparing it to 2020, it may not look right. And that's understandable because the market's evolved. I mean, Christian Kirk got 18 million average per year. So the market has changed, but I just wanted to give the top end there for reference. That's the top paid wide receivers in the NFL right now in those two categories.

So keep that in mind. Now in my opinion, Tyreek, Devontae Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins, and even Michael Thomas coming off that deal, are all better players than A.J. Brown. That's the truth. A.J. Brown's not a top five wide receiver right now, guys. Maybe talent-wise, yeah, but just with his injury concerns, some production concerns in the offense, you can't say that.

You just can't, and be logical, especially when you're arguing contracts. So I think that when you look at the older deals, Michael Thomas and Amari Cooper, it would make sense for AJ to be around those numbers. But even still, 72 mil for Tyreek, 65 million for Devontae Adams, 30 million per year,

28 million per year for those guys respectively. AJ doesn't deserve to be there. And the deal that DeAndre Hopkins signed in 2020 for $27 million a year and $60 million guaranteed, AJ Brown doesn't deserve to be at $27 million a year either. He's never had a year as good as what DeAndre Hopkins has. He's not that consistent of a player when you look back at 2020 with DeAndre Hopkins got.

So I don't think that AJ should be at $24 million or $27 million per year. But if you look at Amari Cooper and Michael Thomas from 2019 to 2020 being $20 million per year, the markets evolved past that. So he's got to be below 27 in my opinion but over 20. Okay. 65 million guaranteed, 72 million guaranteed for Tyreek and Devontae Adams.

AJ doesn't deserve that. He's not as good as those players. But 60 million for Amari Cooper guaranteed in 2020, 60 million for MT in 2019 guaranteed. With inflation, I think he should probably be around there. But let's compare his stats to some people in the same ballpark. Number one, DJ Moore.

Number two, Mike Williams. Number three, Chris Godwin. All got deals this year. And DJ Moore got $41 million guaranteed, $20 million per year. Chris Godwin got $40 million guaranteed, $20 million per year. Mike Williams got $40 million guaranteed, $20 million per year. So they all basically got the same contract, and that's for like your second tier,

not your Hopkins, not your Devontae Adams, not your Tyreek Hills, but the guys right below that, they're getting about $40 million guaranteed, $20 million per year. So let's look at their stats. DJ Moore, 63 games, 301 catches, 4,300 yards, 14 touchdowns. Mike Williams, 72 games, Mike Williams, 72 games, 227 catches, 3,600 yards, 26 touchdowns. Chris Godwin, 72 games, 342 catches, 4,643 yards, 29 touchdowns. Mike Williams and Chris Godwin have been in the league for five years,

but each of them have had a significantly impacted injury season. DJ Moore's only been in the league for four years. So that kind of equals up. AJ Brown's only been in the league three years, 43 games, 185 catches, 2,995 yards, and 24 touchdowns. So he basically is going to be right around. He's going to be better than Mike Williams. He's going to be right around Chris's going to be better than Mike Williams he's going to be right around Chris Godwin but with more touchdowns and he's going to do

it in one less year DJ Moore AJ Brown's going to be way over him in touchdowns right around in yards maybe a little less in catches in four years

while missing some games. DJ Moore's been incredibly durable. So let's put it this way. What about per game? What are these guys doing per game? Because they've all played different amounts of games, different seasons. Let's look at it per game. So per

game, catches. DJ Moore, 4.7. Chris Godwin, 4.7. Mike Williams, 3.1. Yards per game. So per game, catches. DJ Moore, 4.7. Chris Godwin, 4.7. Mike Williams, 3.1. Yards per game, 68 for DJ Moore, 50 for Mike Williams, 64 for Chris Godwin. Touchdowns per game,.22 for DJ Moore,.36 for Mike Williams,.40 for Chris Godwin. Well, what about A.J. Brown? Per game, A.J. Brown, 4.3 catches. So right below the 4.7 of Chris Godwin and D.J. Moore. 69.6 yards. Higher than all three of those guys.

.55 touchdowns per game. Significantly higher than second place Chris Godwin. So, just as many catches per game, basically. More yards per game, more touchdowns per game. A.J. Brown is right around those guys, but his upside has shown to be better. But he's not quite as good as Tyreek, Devontae Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. So he's somewhere in between Chris Godwin, DJ Moore, Mike Williams,

and that top tier. So that's why, in my opinion, his salary should come in right in between. And what would be in between $20 million and $27, $28 million? $24 million. What's $120 million divided by 5? $24 million a year. And all three of those guys, DJ Moore, Mike Williams, Chris Godwin,

got $40 million guaranteed. Well, AJ Brown is better than them. He is. So, he's going to get a little bit more guaranteed. Amari Cooper's deal, getting $60 million guaranteed in 2020. It's been two years. Amari Cooper was more productive than A.J. Brown. So, I would go with that $60 million.

Maybe $65 million if we want to do that. But Devontae Adams got $65 million. You're not going to give A.J. Brown the same guaranteed money that Devontae Adams got in the same all-season that the deals got. So $60 million guaranteed for A.J. Brown makes sense based on the market. $24 million per year makes sense.

It's right in between the two different groups that we looked at. And that makes him the fourth highest paid on average. That makes him the fifth highest in guarantees. a couple of deals trickle in next Debo Samuel DK Metcalf those deals trickle in Terry McLaurin

maybe and AJ Brown will probably be right around 6th 7th highest paid wide receiver which in my opinion AJ Brown is about the 6th 7th 8th best wide receiver in the NFL so there you have it 5 years 120 million120 million, $60 million guaranteed. Look for that to be A.J. Brown's contract that he signs later on this offseason.

And I'm perfectly happy with that. But now we're going to look at the compensatory pick formula for 2023. Excited to get into that conversation before we get into it. Do want to tell you guys about the best tasting protein bars in the galaxy from our friends over at Built Bar. You get the best of both worlds with Built Bar. You get a fantastic taste that tastes like a candy bar,

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Titans fans, let's cap off this Wednesday edition of the Locked on Titans podcast. We talked about the end of the A.J. Brown rumors. We talked about what A.J.'s contract's going to look like and use some market comparisons. Now, I want to get into the compensatory pick formula for 2023.

Before we do, gotta thank you guys again for making the Locked On Titans podcast your first listen every day. Ask for your second listen. Check out the Locked On NFL Draft podcast. It's hosted by Ryan Tracy and former NFL cornerback Eric Crocker. They're breaking down the draft

from two different angles. Yes, they're talking about all the prospects. They're doing mock drafts. They're doing big boards. They're doing player profiles. But also, they're looking at it from a front office perspective and breaking it down from the team angle as well.

So make sure you check out the Locked On NFL Draft Podcast, free and available on all platforms. But what are compensatory draft picks? They are draft picks that are awarded to teams who lose more free agents than they gain.

That's the simple version. Okay? The Titans got a fourth round compensatory draft pick and a sixth round compensatory draft pick this draft in 2022 because they lost Corey Davis and they lost Daquan Jones last year. draft pick and a sixth round compensatory draft pick this draft in 2022 because they lost Corey Davis and

they lost Daquan Jones last year. I've talked about this before and I've showed you guys examples. It's a cancel out formula. Basically they take all the free agents that you signed, all the free agents that you lost, you cancel out players that have similar money

so like Bud Dupree canceled out Jonu Smith. Danico Autry canceled out Marcus. Okay? And then what's left over, depending on the money, is what round you come in. So Corey Davis was $12 million. That's worth a fourth round pick.

Daquan Jones was $4 million. That's worth a sixth round pick. So thatan Jones was $4 million. That's worth a sixth round pick. So that's how that works. But spinning forward, this year's free agency is going to determine how many compensatory picks the Titans get in 2023.

And I got to tell you guys, it's not looking good. And the reason that's what sparked this conversation was Rashawn Evans signing with the Atlanta Falcons. But here's the problem. Rashawn's deal

is probably not going to be big enough to get the Titans a comp pick. And right now, the Titans are getting zero. They signed Jamarco Jones for $28 million average per year. They signed A.J. Moore for a one-year deal at $2.5 million.

But those deals are so low based on how salaries are in the NFL right now that they're not going to qualify for the compensatory pick formula. They're too low. They just don't matter. They're not in the canceling out process.

So the Titans didn't gain any free agents, which is good. Which is good. They're at a zero in free agents gained. But they haven't lost any qualifying free agents yet either. And 2.8 million for Jamarco Jones isn't high enough to matter in the compensatory formula. Guess who else isn't high enough? 2 million for Deontay Foreman. Jayon Brown, 11.25 million.

Not going to matter. Dane Cruikshank, $1.1 million. Not going to matter. Julio, Roger Saffold, Jack Rabbit Jenkins, they don't count because they weren't free agents. They were cut. They were released.

Same thing on the other note, on a good side, Austin Hooper doesn't count because he was released by the Cleveland Browns. He wasn't a regular free agent whose contract expired. So right now, even with Bo Brinkley, Darrington Evans, Corey Blossom

game, signing elsewhere, all those deals are so low that they're not going to result in a compensatory pick. Here's the hope with Rashawn. If Rashawn gets $3 million, $3.5 million, $4 million, am I pushing it? Maybe. The Titans would at least get a 7th round draft pick out of that. They still have Questenberry and they still have Ferkser.

Maybe Ferkser gets a $3 million deal from a team who needs a pass-catching tight end. Questenberry, a team gets desperate in the summer, and, well, it would be signed too late to matter in the compensatory formula at that point. So Questenberry gets signed here soon by a team looking for a right tackle, maybe $4 million, $3 million. Maybe it gets the Titans a few seventh-round draft picks

in the compensatory formula. But right now, the way that it's looking, wouldn't expect the Titans to get any comp picks in 2023. They are missing a fourth-round draft pick due to the Julio Jones trade. But either way, I wouldn't expect any comp picks to be awarded to the Titans based on this free agent class. But that's all right.

The Titans, the only ones that would have, would have been Harold Landry or Ben Jones. And the Titans needed those guys back. So I'm not really all that upset about it. But that's going to do it for the show today, folks. We talked about AJ's rumors being done, talked about his potential contract, talked about comp picks.

I'm going to be back with you guys tomorrow and it's my intention to begin the Locked on Titans 2022 draft preview talking the quarterback position. I did about 7 hours of scouting on Tuesday starting to get ready, starting to dive into

things. So excited to bring all that knowledge to you guys as well and talk about these quarterbacks who again could be an option for the Titans in the first round. But that's going to do it for me today folks. As always, I am your host Tyler Rowland and this was Locked on Titans. you