Locked On Titans - Daily Podcast On The Tennessee Titans - Article Analysis: Titans Best Value Signing, Derrick Henry Needs Paid & Draft Adjustments

Episode Date: March 31, 2020

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Welcome to the Locked on Titans podcast. I'm your host, Tyler Rowland. Titans fans, we are going to do a little bit of article analysis on today's episode. Two specific articles that were written with some Titans related information that I find very, very interesting. First, out of all of the signings around the NFL NFL we will take a look at how the analytics say the Titans may have found one of the biggest bargains and one of the greatest steals of the first wave of free agency and then as contract situations continue to evolve we are going to look at an article that makes the case for one Titans player who should not be happy with how things have played out so far. You may have an idea of who that is already, but we are going to talk about that in our

second segment, and then we will cap off the show with a positive and happy draft update, giving you guys a window into the process and how things will look and how things may go for the actual players being drafted in this new virtual setup that we will most likely see from the NFL. So some interesting articles to come over. We have some draft information to get to, a lot to talk about on today's show. Let's get it. Last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got an incredible value when they signed edge rusher Shaquille Barrett to a one-year $4 million deal before Barrett proceeded to dominate

the NFL and lead the league with 19 and a half sacks in 2019. So ESPN's analytics writer Seth Walter set out to see who the analytics say could be this year's bargain like Shaquille Barrett was last year and at the top of that list he has Titans outside linebacker Vic Beasley the Titans inked Beasley to a one-year nine and a half million dollar deal that could go up to 12 million dollars if Beasley does hit certain incentives and Walter makes his case with two pieces of information and both of these together could show why Beasley could end up being a similar type of steal that the Buccaneers got with Shaquille Barrett.

The first piece of information that Walter uses is his situation. Quote, there's a pretty decent chance that the Falcon secondary was the real culprit behind Beasley's low sack totals over the past couple of seasons. He had eight last season and five in each of the previous two after recording 15 and a half in 2016, end quote. And it does make sense that looking at the Titans situation, you could expect more help for Vic Beasley after the Falcons defense really started to nosedive after their Super Bowl run.

The Titans have two of the best safeties in the NFL with Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro. They will have at least two good cornerbacks on the outside with Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler a great pass coverage linebacker like Jayon Brown and other help on the defensive line that can take stress off of Beasley while he is pass rushing with more assets in the draft in free agency that can still be used so it is definitely possible and would make complete sense that looking at the Titans supporting cast on defense that Beasley will be added to could elevate his production and get him back to that 2016 mode where he had 15 and a half sacks. But the point of the article

is how the analytics tell the story and what you can point to to show that Beasley could be a much better player than he's being paid for. And the number one statistic or analytic that Walter points to is pass rush win rate. So based on the NFL's next gen stats player tracking, Beasley actually ranked 15th among qualified edge rushers last season in pass rush win rate. That was one spot below highly touted edge rusher Yannick Ngakwe, and both players had a very similar double team rate per Walter. A year ago, just a year ago in 2018, Beasley was 5th in the NFL in pass rush win rate. So the analytics do favor Beasley.

And if you put him in a better situation combined with what the analytics are telling you, it would make sense that Beasley could potentially be one of the bigger steals out of all the signings in NFL free agency. Now, Walter left us with one last blurb to explain his feelings on Beasley, and that is, quote, to me, this says a one-year, high-upside, $9.5 million risk on Beasley is absolutely worth it. While the situations aren't exactly the same, Beasley is a former first-round pick with 15.5 sacks season under his belt and is being paid more.

If anyone is most likely to pull off a Barrett-style breakout on a one-year deal this season, it's Beasley. So that has to get you really excited for Vic Beasley's potential in this Titans defense. Like he said there, and I will echo circumstance, the Titans will have a better supporting cast on defense around Beasley and put him in a role that will be more comfortable and ask him to do less and also per pass rush win rate we see that Beasley is still one of the top edge rushers in the NFL so it'll be interesting to see if Beasley's performance on the field in 2020 matches this article and he becomes one of the better values one of the better bargains and one of the better values, one of the better bargains, and one of the better steals for the Titans in free agency.

Once again, that is an article on ESPN by analytics writer Seth Walter. Make sure you guys check that out. It's a very good article about the other candidates that he could see, but I wanted to make sure that you guys were up to date on what the NFL world is saying about some of the Titans signings. I sure hope that Walter is right and Beasley can get back to his 2016 production and help this Titans defense get more pressure on the quarterback. But that is not the only article that we are analyzing today, Titans fans.

We are going to jump into our second segment and take a look at an article that explains why there's a certain Titans player, you might have been able to guess from the intro, who should not be happy about their current contract situation and how things could be different going forward and how the Titans should proceed going forward. But before we jump into that, I do just want to remind you guys that I will be bringing you content Monday through Friday every single week throughout the offseason up until kickoff. So make sure that you are subscribed to the Locked on Titans podcast on whatever platform

you do stream podcast through Apple podcast, Google Play, Spotify, Stitcher, wherever it is that you stream your podcast. Make sure that you are locked in to the Locked On Titans podcast and follow me on Twitter at TicTacTitans for more, including instant analysis, my video breakdowns that go along with our TicTacTitans segments and much, much more. So make sure that we are connected so you are getting this content every single day on demand. But we are going to jump into the analysis of the next article.

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E-C-H-E-L-O-N-Fit.com slash L-O. Let's continue our article analysis here with another article out of The Athletic by Joe Rexrode. And I thought this article was pretty fantastic. Rexrode does a good job of kind of going around all of the different issues as to why the Titans are in a tough spot with Derek Henry and his contract situation. Now, in Rexrode's article, it's pretty obvious that he thinks the Titans need to pay up. And they need to pay up soon, and they need to pay up big big time and that it won't be a big issue for the Titans. But in fairness, he does go over quite a bit of information that shows why you shouldn't pay a running back,

but counters with why Derrick Henry is a little bit different. So I'm just going to read you a few select paragraphs out of this article. I think that Rex Road, like I said, does a fantastic job with this one. I would encourage you guys to check it out. I do believe right now the athletics paywall is down due to COVID-19 and everything that's going on. But I would advise that you subscribe to The Athletic whenever it is back up and running and everything is normal because it's a great source for not only Titans content but across the entire NFL. I enjoy intelligent sports content and often I will find that at The Athletic. So other than my little endorsement there, we will get into the article and I want to start here with one of his opening paragraphs and Rex Road wrote this, quote,

running back is a profane term in the NFL these days. You'd be kinder to call someone an uncomfortable close talker or a library book non-returner or even a toilet paper hoarder. Henry is being lumped in with recent signers of large contracts at his devaluing position who have flamed out and made those contracts look unwise. Todd Gurley, who came into the league after a serious knee injury, fell off after signing a big deal, so don't pay Henry. Devontae Freeman, who had knee, core, and concussion injuries, fell off after signing a big deal, so don't pay Henry.

David Johnson, who got paid off one big season, had a knee injury, a dislocated wrist, and back issues, which somehow means you can't pay Henry. Don't pay a running back, they say, end quote. So that is at the beginning of his story, and he's making light of a pretty good counter for the running back position. You know, often, even myself, I have, you know, mentioned those names, referenced those names when talking about Henry's contract situation, and Rex Road makes a good point here that these guys have all dealt with major injuries of some kind, Gurley's being an issue even before he signed his big deal, and then the other two, their injuries coming after they signed their big deal so that shouldn't necessarily relate completely

to Henry considering how durable Derek Henry has been he hasn't really missed much time at all that one game against the Saints last season and then he came back and you know obviously wasn't affected going forward and the next section that I want to read to you guys kind of hits on that and and Rex Road like I said does a great job of explaining the ups and downs of doing negotiations with Henry and he does a fair job of putting it in perspective considering that he's on the side of paying Henry big money so at least he's being honest about all of the counter arguments to his point and here's where a pretty good section of the article starts. And I will read this one to you.

A fair knock on Henry and his position is that he will be 28 in two years and that his position has had the shortest average career span in the NFL for as long as people have been calculating such things. It's also fair if you're sitting on the other side of the negotiating table from Henry and his CAA team to point out that he is a two down back and that he hasn't demonstrated the ability to produce as a receiver. Taking a screen 80 yards for a touchdown isn't the same thing, though it's handy. This means the Titans have to invest behind him either by paying someone such as Deion Lewis, who proved unworthy of his four-year $20 million deal after one season was released after two,

or spending a draft pick, as the Titans will likely do this year. They can't just grab a cheap veteran as insurance. They have to fill in for something Henry doesn't do well, and that's where the legitimate leverage ends, and the fake don't pay a running back group think fluenza kicks in this is going to come down to how high the titans are willing to go on henry's annual salary and how low he's willing to go and i don't know how big the gap is between those two right now i do know 10.3 million is an insult considering what he means to this team end quote i think that that is a fascinating way of looking at things look at Henry compared to his teammates and then how much he's going to be paid

now the issue that I have with that is and Rex Road makes some more points here that I'm going to read to you guys that makes Henry's salary and what he's getting paid look even more silly compared to where he ranks on this team but what we have to talk about is market so I'm gonna get into this next part of the article before I come back and talk to you guys about market so quote he's been the best runner of the football in the NFL convincingly for the past 22 games of his career there's nothing to suggest he will fall off in the next 32. A devastating injury can happen to anyone, but an accumulation of ailments caught up to the aforementioned three players who have

further besmirched his position's name. He's got nothing accumulating. He was producing through a tight hamstring last season, sat out one week, and proceeded to become the first back in NFL history to exceed 180 rushing yards in three straight games. Two were playoff wins at New England and Baltimore. The Titans rode him to within a win of the Super Bowl and built one of the best offenses in the NFL over the last half of the season around him. And of course, it wasn't all him. He got blocking as well as elite quarterbacking from Tannehill.

He's also in line right now to make about a third of Tannehill's salary in 2020, less than the two tackles, one of them now in Cleveland, and one of the guards who blocked for him last season, and a few hundred thousand more than slot receiver Adam Humphreys. End quote. So that right there is a pretty deafening case for Derrick Henry to get paid more than he's being paid right now. But that's where I want to counter with market. You can't just pay guys based on how well they play or how much they mean to your team.

You have to do that within the prism of how much everyone else in their particular role is being paid. In a vacuum, Derrick Henry should be the one making $30 million a year. But when you look at the running back market, everything is driven by the market. So you can't just go out and pay Derrick Henry way more than anybody else at his position when there's a general market that you have to follow with supply and demand for how these running backs should be paid. So while I understand the comparison, Derrick Henry only making a few hundred thousand more dollars than Adam Humphreys, making less than the people blocking for him. I get how that looks bad on the surface, but we live in a capitalistic society,

so it shouldn't be that hard to wrap your mind around the idea of a market, and the market doesn't lend itself to having running backs get paid quite as much as Derrick Henry probably wants to get paid. Now, what you do have to look at here in Rex Road, again, makes another good point, and I'm trying to highlight the work that he's done, the research he's put in, and the case that he's making for Derrick Henry not being on the franchise tag, and Derrick Henry getting a long term deal for much more than what the franchise tag is valued at, and here's where me and Rex Road will disagree the most, I guess, between what's really going on with this anecdote.

So I'll read this part to you, and it'll be the last blurb that I read. Quote, if random running back comparisons are going to be counted against Henry, along with things from only passing matters truthers, such as the fact that five of last season's top seven rushers missed the playoffs, let's compare some teams to themselves. The Los Angeles Rams were a Super Bowl contender when Gurley was healthy and one of the best weapons in the NFL. With an ailing Gurley in a pedestrian running game, they were average. The Atlanta Falcons got to the Super Bowl in Freeman's best season. They've declined along with him since. A lot has changed for the Seattle Seahawks since their back-to-back

Super Bowl seasons of 2013-14, but those teams will always be remembered for Marshawn Lynch in his prime, smashing his way to 2,500 yards and 25 touchdowns, end quote. So that is a pretty good argument to be made there that these running backs are highly paid and everyone says running back doesn't matter. But as soon as some of these teams lose their running back or they get hurt, they completely fall apart. Now, that's like I said, that's a good argument. But here is my counter to that. The problem there is it's not that the running backs started getting hurt and fell off.

It's that those running backs fell off while being paid so much that's why all of these guys have been cut or traded because once the running back declines even a little bit they can't justify that high end salary and now it's a team killer it's a roster killer so the issue is not necessarily that if you don't have a talented running back, you won't be able to proceed. It's if your talented running back who you gave a bunch of money to isn't up to snuff, isn't playing up to his potential, then you're screwed. You can't overcome that because you can't overcome paying a running back that much money. If your running back is only making a couple million dollars and they start to, for lack of a better term, suck, well then you can get your way out of that. You're not hamstrung by how much of your

salary cap you tied into that one position. So that would be my counter there. It's not that the running back not playing as well as what hurt the team. It's the running back stopped playing as well and the team had the running back on a huge deal that really hurt their roster and them being cut to save salary cap space for their teams proves that point in my opinion so that's basically the last blurb I'm gonna take from Rex Rhodes article here he goes on to give you examples like Eddie George who got a big deal but still was able to be a bell cow and never really wore down until he retired after that last season with Dallas but then he gave the other example of Chris Johnson who after he got his money was basically never the same player ever again so he does a good job

of going both ways I wanted to talk about this article it's such a hot topic every single day in the Titans fan base as to what to do with Derrick Henry. And I will admit earlier today, I watched a highlight video of every touchdown of Derrick Henry's career. And I just don't see how we can go on without that guy. I have been pretty open about the fact that I am team don't pay Henry big money, probably franchise tag him two years in a row. You can team don't pay Henry big money probably franchise tag him

two years in a row you can't give a running back big money blah blah but just watching that guy play considering what Rex Road had to say in his article considering the type of specimen that Derrick Henry is he's not just your regular average sized running back he is an Adonis. He is a freak, a cyborg. His workout regimen, his work ethic is legendary. And some of that and his off-field concerns are nothing. I mean, it's not like Zeke Elliott where you have work ethic concerns and troubles off the field to be concerned about. I mean, Derrick Henry is spotless. He's squeaky clean and he's a hard worker. He's a leader, and I am really on the fence about what to do with Derrick Henry going forward, but I wanted to highlight this article by Rex Rodas. I thought he made some pretty good points on his side of the story

and his side of how he feels about what the Titans should do with Derrick Henry. So pretty good argument there. I would advise you to check out the entire article in full. When we come back for our last segment it's going to be quick I'm just going to give you guys an update on how the NFL draft will go for the actual players being drafted and what the NFL is doing in lieu of the COVID-19 situation and it moving the NFL draft around in procedure and place. We got good news last week when the NFL came out and announced that the NFL draft would go on as scheduled from April 23rd to 25th and that is a welcome site for NFL fans and sports

fans alike as it'll give us something to look forward to but that brings a lot of questions and it was obvious that the NFL wasn't going to be able to do the draft as it normally would in terms of prospects coming up on the stage being in the green room the fans at the event it was going to be in Vegas they had this whole on the water exhibit where they were going to take the prospects on a boat up after they were selected and all of that obviously had to be scrapped based on the COVID-19 issue going around the globe right now that all of you guys are well aware of so that asked a lot of questions of the NFL. What are you going to do now? What's the procedure going to look like? Not only for the teams, but for the television markets, for the television

networks, for the prospects. What would that mean? And so we got a little bit of news on that note from Tom Pelissero from the NFL Network. He tweeted out, quote, the NFL has begun inviting top prospects to participate virtually in next month's draft. Those communications continue. In all, 50 plus are expected to be involved via video, social media, etc. No trip to Vegas, but players and families will receive a draft package as well. In a letter to invited prospects, NFL Executive VP of Football Ops Troy Vincent writes, Our plan is to connect you with NFL fans watching the draft live from around the world, directly from your home. So yes, the NFL's newest players will join the league and hashtag stay at home.

So I know that the draft probably won't be as exciting as it has been in past years because we won't have the players going up on stage. We won't get the cameras locked on them in the green room as players are falling or players are drafted too high or their teammates are going we won't get reactions from family at the actual table at the draft we won't get the conversation or the interview with the prospect directly on site at the draft but I don't really think my viewing enjoyment of the draft is going to be all that affected I really enjoy the draft from the analysis from the draft experts, seeing what their take is on each pick, hearing the rumors of what

could be coming in terms of trades or what could be coming in terms of next prospects off the board, best available prospects still remaining. And none of that analysis is really going to change. I think that the networks, ESPN, Fox Sports, NFL Network, they're really going to go all out to produce good draft content and have really deep analysis of the draft. Because what else is there to do? This will be the best content that these networks have gotten their hands on in forever. I think that's a big reason why the draft went on as scheduled.

Those television partners are really dying for content right now. It's killed sports media, quite frankly. So I think that the NFL draft going on is great, and I like hearing that they are going to get the prospects involved. This way, those player interviews, family reactions, things like that, maybe we won't miss out on all of those. Maybe we can get a little bit of that while people are still at home and being as safe as possible but that is going to do it for today's episode if you guys could now that you are done listening to the locked on titans podcast tell your smart device to play locked on fantasy football they are going over all of the free agent signings how it'll have an impact on fantasy football going forward this year.

They also talk about certain rookies and how they'll impact and what they will do in fantasy this year and those kind of projections. So never a bad time to start getting ready for fantasy football so that you can take all your friends' money and steal the trophy away. So hopefully you guys can win your fantasy leagues and start early getting that done. Check out the Locked On NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. But that is going to do it for me. As always, I am your host, Tyler Rowland, and this was Locked on Titans.