Locked On Titans - Daily Podcast On The Tennessee Titans - FULL TIM KELLY BREAKDOWN: Coaching Background, Statistical Pros & Cons and Schematic Enhancements
Episode Date: February 11, 2022The Tennessee Titans hired former Texans OC Tim Kelly as a Senior Offensive Assistant/Passing Game Coordinator. It is a move that was met with much excitement in the Titans community. But who is Tim K...elly? Why is everyone, including Tyler, excited for this hire? A full breakdown on today's podcast!!First, what is Tim Kelly's background and how did he end up with the Titans? Tyler goes through the history! Next, a full statistical analysis showing both the good and the bad in Kelly's offenses over the past few seasons in Houston. Finally, what will Kelly's influences look like in Tennessee? What can we expect to see from the Titans offense with Kelly in tow!!Follow Tyler on Twitter @TicTacTitansFollow the show on Facebook @LockedOnTitansPodSubscribe to the Locked On Titans YouTube channel:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP3332GMOh4y5PX3q9NFybwSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.GetUpsideJust download the FREE GetUpside App and use promo code TOUCHDOWN to get 25 cents per gallon or more cash back on your first tank. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Welcome to the Locked on Titans podcast. I am your host, Tyler Rowland.
Titans fans, it is a Friday edition of the Locked on Titans podcast.
And on today's show, I have a full three-level breakdown of brand new
Tennessee Titans passing game coordinator and senior offensive assistant, Tim Kelly.
This is a hire that Titans fans and myself have been asking for
for quite some time and we got it. But what can we expect from Tim Kelly? I'm going to break that
down today. First, what is Tim Kelly's background and what led him to the Tennessee Titans? Then
we're going to take a look at Tim Kelly's offenses from a statistic standpoint. Finally, we'll look
at Tim Kelly's offenses from a schematic standpoint.
Where can he improve the Tennessee Titans offense in 2022?
All of that on a full Tim Kelly breakdown
on a Friday edition of the Locked on Titans podcast.
Let's get it.
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the show Facebook page at Locked on Titans Pod. But with all that said, we are going
to dive into this full breakdown of Titans Tim Kelly. Now first, here's what I want to
say. I've been asking for Tim Kelly to be added to this coaching staff since before
the playoff loss, during week 18. I even said on Twitter,
hey, Tim Kelly needs to be hired by the Titans if he's let go from the Texans this year. He was,
the Titans added him. Now I wanted to see that an offensive coordinator and see Todd Downing be let
go, but Mike Vrabel is loyal to the soil for better or worse. So Todd Downing will stay around.
But Tim Kelly is going to operate in that Jim Schwartz kind of mode.
He's going to be a senior offensive assistant, offensive advisor, and he's going to be the passing game coordinator,
which is really where he makes his bones is in the passing game.
So Tim Kelly, who is Tim Kelly?
I get that question all the time
from a lot of people. Well, let's go over Tim Kelly's background. So you have an idea of his
history in 2008 and 2009. He was a graduate assistant at Illinois Wesleyan. And then he
got the opportunity to bump up and be the defensive coordinator in 2010 for Minnesota State Moorhead.
So having an understanding of defensive football
is only going to help an offensive play caller.
So I like that little touch in his resume there.
Then he kind of bumped up, started getting into some higher level programs.
In 2011, he was a graduate assistant for Ball State.
Then he really made the connection that led him to the NFL in 2012 and 2013. He was a
graduate assistant for Penn State. Who was the head coach of Penn State during that time? Bill O'Brien.
So from there, Bill O'Brien goes to take over the Houston Texans and he brings Tim Kelly with him as
a quality control coach on the offensive side of the ball. So that's what Tim Kelly is doing in 2014 and 2015.
2016, he stays as a quality control coach on the offensive side of the ball, which is
a low-level assistant, basically a gopher for the actual assistant coaches on the offensive
side of the ball.
But then in 2016, he gets promoted to assistant offensive line coach. Now he really
gets his toes wet from there. In 2017 and 2018, also, which coincides with Mike Vrabel's time
with the Houston Texans, Tim Kelly is upgraded to tight ends coach. Now think about this. Mike
Vrabel loves tight end coaches because tight end coaches have to be involved in the run game
planning and involved in the pass game planning. It's very versatile coaching position to coach
tight ends. You have to know a lot about what the team wants to do in the run game and the pass game.
Arthur Smith was a tight end coach. Todd Downing was the tight end coach for the Titans. And now
Tim Kelly, a tight end coach before he got promoted
to offensive coordinator in 2019. Now I do have to make this note. He was not the play caller
for the Houston Texans in 2019. Bill O'Brien still had a chokehold on that responsibility,
but Tim Kelly is the one installing the offense during the week, formulating the game plan,
doing the scouting on the opposing defense.
So a lot to be done as the offensive coordinator in 2020.
Bill O'Brien saw the writing on the wall with his job status.
He gave that play calling duty over to Tim Kelly.
So that's the first year where we really get a sense of who he is as a play caller.
In 2021, last season, Tim Kelly was the offensive coordinator for the Texans.
Things weren't great, as we'll go over in the statistical portion of today's breakdown,
but let's be honest, the Texans organization was trying to create the worst roster in the NFL,
so they really dealt Tim Kelly a raw deal, and they got rid of David Culley as well,
so I'm not trusting anything that happened with the Texans in 2021,
essentially, is my point.
So either way, Tim Kelly fired by the Texans,
who are just a clown show, quite frankly,
and now hired by the Tennessee Titans.
Again, not as the offensive coordinator,
but he's a guy who's going to be in a Jim Schwartz role
on the offensive side of the ball, and that's something that who's going to be in a Jim Schwartz role on the
offensive side of the ball.
And that's something that Mike Vrabel even talked about.
Earlier this week, he had a quote that Tim Kelly will help the offense very similar to
how senior defensive assistant Jim Schwartz has on the defense in his role.
So basically, Mike Vrabel is spelling it out there.
He wants Tim Kelly to be an advisor.
Him and Todd Downing can work together.
And the Titans have a really good foundation in the run game.
As I mentioned earlier, where Tim Kelly has really impressed people
is in the passing game with his passing concepts
and his ability to create explosive plays in the passing game.
So if the Titans' offense made improvements in the passing game
with explosive pass plays,
that is the exact improvement that all of us are looking for.
So this has the potential to go very well.
And then, of course, as a fail safe, if Todd Downing comes out and really struggles again,
midseason, you can fire him, install Tim Kelly, and it wouldn't be a real shock to the system,
which is something that Mike Vrabel certainly wouldn't want to do.
So I like what Tim Kelly brings to the table.
We're going to talk more about that.
Again, we're going to dive into Tim Kelly from a schematic standpoint
at the end of the show.
We're going to dive into Tim Kelly next from a statistical standpoint.
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Titans fans, we are going to continue this Friday edition of the Locked on Titans podcast,
breaking down Tim Kelly, three different levels.
We talked about his background.
Now we're going to get into the statistics.
Then we're going to finish with some schematic talk around Tim Kelly,
but very excited about this hire.
Like I said at the beginning of the show, I've been asking for Tim Kelly
since before the playoffs even began. I was down on Todd Downing by the beginning of the show, I've been asking for Tim Kelly since before the playoffs even began.
I was down on Todd Downing by the end of the season.
Knew that there needed to be some changes.
This is kind of a half measure, in my opinion, but I'll accept it.
I'll accept it at this time.
At least the Titans aren't going into next season with just Todd Downing
running the offense and Todd Downing alone.
So it gives me a little bit of hope, restore some optimism,
and going through the statistics,
going through the scheme,
gave me even more optimism
about what Tim Kelly can bring to this team
and specifically to this offense.
Before we get into the statistics,
do want to let you guys know
that the Locked On Podcast Network
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Locked On Bengals and Locked On Rams are in L as well, covering the big game all week. You're not going to get better coverage than what you're getting with the Locked On Podcast Network this week and going into the big game on Sunday. But with that being said, let's dive into the stats here. And the way I want to do it is, I want to do pros and I want to do cons. What are the things that concern me?
What are the things that give me hope and give me optimism?
Well, let's dive into this.
So, of course, as I said, in 2019,
Tim Kelly was not the play caller for the Texans.
It was Bill O'Brien.
But Tim Kelly, like I said, was installing the offense.
He was doing the game planning.
He was doing the scouting.
And the Texans had a top 10 rushing offense in 2019.
They were 11th in yards per attempt in the passing game.
They were 8th in third down conversions.
They were 7th in red zone percentage.
So a lot to like in 2019, even if Tim Kelly wasn't calling the plays.
Third down, red zone. Those are things that you scheme up during the week.
Okay, you install everything during the week.
You know what plays are available to you with your red zone and third down packages.
So, going to give Tim Kelly some credit, partial credit for those.
And I want to note that top 10 rushing offense, one of the cons here that we'll get into is
rushing concerns with Tim Kelly,
but shows right there, even though Bill O'Brien was calling plays,
that when the Texans had a decent team, they went 10-6, won the division in 2019.
The team was way worse in 2020 and 2021 from a roster standpoint.
But in 2019, they were a good team.
They had a decent rushing offense.
Got to give Tim Kelly some credit there,
even if we don't give him a ton of credit.
But moving into 2020, when Tim Kelly was actually calling plays
for the Houston Texans.
Fourth in passing yards.
Eighth in passing touchdowns.
The second least amount of interceptions thrown.
First in net yards per attempt.
23rd in attempts.
So think about that.
Fourth in passing yards.
Eighth in passing touchdowns.
But 23rd in attempts.
That is incredible efficiency in the pass game.
I mean, they were seventh in passing first downs.
It's getting a first down on a pass play in 2020.
They were 13th in third down percentage at 43%.
I mean, a lot to like there.
Again, the efficiency in the pass game creating explosive plays.
Let's talk about that explosive pass play rate in 2020. The Texans were first
in the NFL in explosive pass rate. Just exactly what the Titans offense needs. The Titans need
more explosive pass plays. I mean, in 2021, the Titans were 29th in explosive pass play rate.
And those statistics are for sharp football on the internets. So the Titans had one of the least
explosive passing games in the NFL. The Texans, when Tim Kelly had a decent roster and was calling plays in 2020 had the best explosive pass play offense
incredibly efficient, explosive and that is exactly what the Titans need
I mean the Titans were only 14th in 2020
and that was considered a more explosive and better year for the Titans offense
so the Texans really handle business
now that explosive pass play rate dropped to 23rd in 2021
but we know that the Texans roster was set up to fail.
But even with that, the Texans still had a more explosive passing offense
than the Titans with a terrible roster and a rookie quarterback.
So a lot of credit deserved for Tim Kelly from those standpoints
and looking at those statistics.
One other thing that really stood out as a deficiency of Todd Downing
was his opening game scripts.
We talked about this all year. The Titans
only scored points
on three of their opening
drives all year long.
That is unacceptable.
Just terrible.
And one of those was a field goal.
So, not great.
No way around that.
Not great.
Tim Kelly, on the other hand,
the Texans in 2021,
scored on six of their opening drives.
That's double the Titans with the worst roster in the league.
With a team that is trying to lose,
organizationally.
Gotta give them a lot of credit there. Also, have to point
this out. The Titans averaged 16 yards
on their opening drive of the game
in 2021. The Texans averaged 36 yards
on their opening drive of the game.
More than double. Tim Kelly is putting together
better plans. Tim Kelly is attacking
tendencies of other defenses better than Todd Downing does with a much worse roster, a much
worse quarterback, much worse weapons. So I don't see how you can look at all those statistics and
say that Tim Kelly isn't going to be a major upgrade and a major boost to the Titans passing offense. Okay. The cons let's look at some negatives here from a statistical
standpoint. In 2020, the Texans were 31st in rushing yards. They were 31st in rushing attempts.
Now let's add some context here. The Texans were always down in 2020. They
went four and 12. They were always coming from behind. They had to throw a ton. They had a
terrible offensive line. So it's going to be hard to be a good running team or even an average
running team when you have those things going on. So that context is important there. They were 32nd
in rushing yards in 2021. So it didn't improve. But again, look at the
context. The Texans have had a terrible offensive line for both years. They're always behind because
they're a terrible roster for both years. They have to pass more. So just take that into account,
which means in 2020, when the Texans had the most explosive passing offense in the NFL
and the second least amount of interceptions, even though they had to throw all the time because they
were down, that makes it even more impressive, quite frankly, that even though teams knew that
they were going to throw, Tim Kelly schemed up explosive pass plays and prevented turnovers.
Now, of course, a lot of that has to do with Deshaun Watson.
Let's not pretend here.
But you look at Deshaun Watson's stats from 2019 to 2020,
he went up a major level.
And a lot of that credit has to go to Tim Kelly.
You look at Davis Mills, who, in my opinion,
was either the best or the second best rookie quarterback this season.
You've got to give a lot of credit to Tim Kelly.
Look at what the Texans offense did to the Titans
in the second half of the last game of the year.
Tim Kelly was shredding the Titans defense
once he made adjustments
and saw the way that they were playing.
The guy is a great mind for passing offense
and that's exactly what the Titans need.
But this is the cons.
We're talking cons right now.
One big thing that does stand out to me,
the Texans allowed 50 sacks in 2020. That
was the second most in the NFL. They let up the ninth most sacks in the NFL in 2021. So Tim Kelly,
when he's been in charge of offenses two years in a row, both seasons have had really, really
hard times protecting the quarterback. Now again, the
offensive line has been piss poor. So is that a talent issue? I don't know, but the Titans
offensive line isn't good in pass protection. So if that's a deficiency, then Tim Kelly's really
not going to be helping the Titans much there. Also 26th in yards per attempt in 2021. But again,
yards per attempt in 2021. But again, it's really hard to hate on Tim Kelly for the passing offense when the team was set up to lose. So take everything with a grain of salt, the good and
the bad, but that's kind of the pros and the cons statistically speaking from Tim Kelly's perspective
or looking at Tim Kelly from that perspective. Now, I want to talk a little bit more scheme.
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Titans fans, we are going to cap off this Friday edition
of the Locked on Titans podcast
a full breakdown
of Titans new hire
Tim Kelly, we're going to get into the
schematics of Tim Kelly and
what I expect to see increase from the
Titans offense in some places where
I don't expect to see any improvement
because it's just not what Tim Kelly has shown he likes to do.
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But we talked about Tim Kelly's background and history.
We talked about statistics, both good and bad,
that stood out to me from my research on Tim Kelly.
Now, I want to talk about Tim Kelly from a schematic standpoint. What does
the film show? I watched bits and pieces of 2020, watched some bits and pieces of 2021,
looked at some statistics as well. I like what I see mostly, but to me,
I like what I see mostly, but to me, Tim Kelly is jelly.
Tim Kelly is jelly.
Tim jelly.
And Todd Downing is still the peanut butter, okay?
I don't want this Titans offense to go through some complete revolution or anything like that.
There are just areas within the offense that need improvement.
And luckily, the things that I don't see improving schematically
with Tim Kelly are things that I think the Titans already do pretty well
and have a good sense of.
But the things that do need to improve for the Titans offense,
I think that's where Tim Kelly can help, and it shows.
So number one, formationally speaking,
Tim Kelly runs a lot more 11 personnel
than the Titans typically like to run.
And 11 personnel, of course, is three wide receivers.
Because when you talk about personnel numbers, it's the amount of backs in the backfield and the amount of tight ends.
So 11 personnel, one back, one tight end, three wide receivers.
Tim Kelly does like to run 12 personnel with two tight ends, which is something the Titans are very familiar with.
That was the Titans' number one formation group.
But Tim Kelly likes to run 11 personnel, which is the dominant personnel grouping in the NFL nowadays.
But the Titans don't have as much success out of 11 personnel as you would like to see them have
with three wide receivers on the field.
Now, a lot of that probably goes to the Titans don't have three NFL wide receivers on the field at all times.
It's usually Julio and AJ.
Usually, they're rotating in and out a bunch anyways.
You have Nick Westbrook-Akina or Chester Rogers
or Cody Hollister out there.
Those guys aren't NFL talents to be a third wide receiver.
They can be a fourth or fifth wide receiver,
but third, that's probably going to make you shy away from running 11 personnel because you don't
have a good enough third wide receiver. That's an area of need for the Titans in the off season.
But if the Titans are able to improve from a personnel standpoint with those wide receivers,
Tim Kelly is going to help a ton with how to use 11 personnel packages. And here's another thing.
Tim Kelly likes to pass a lot out of 11 personnel.
So my imagination is running wild here.
And if the Titans have more success passing out of 11 personnel,
then that'll lead to more success running out of 11 personnel.
Then you can bring Nick Westbrook-Akino on the field as a third wide receiver,
have him motion into tight into the formation
and act as a third tight end
because of his big physical talent.
And then you're really creating an advantage.
I really like what the potential is there.
Also, not just in 11 personnel,
Tim Kelly passes more on early downs
than we've seen from the Titans in recent years.
There's this theory out there
that running the ball helps the quarterback
because you're not going to be in third and long.
It physically beats down the rush.
It makes the defense think about the run game rather than pass rushing.
It's going to help the quarterback.
But I think that passing on early downs is going to help the quarterback
because it's going to keep the defense on their toes.
And how many times did we see the Titans run, run past this year and get nothing?
The Titans have to find a way to pass on early downs with more success.
It is incredibly important.
The Titans cannot continue to struggle on first and second down nonstop.
So those are things that do stick out from Tim Kelly schematically.
Another thing is he likes to take shots downfield.
I mean, we talked about that explosive pass play rate from 2020
for the Texans first in the NFL.
The Titans in 2020 were 14th in 2021-29.
So taking shots downfield that are well-coordinated,
that make sense, that match the tendency of the defense,
what coverage they're going to get, and what
route concepts can attack downfield
against those coverages. Those are
things that Todd Downing struggled with
all year long, and Tim Kelly has shown
that with good talent on offense, he can
be great at scheming up shots downfield
and explosive pass plays, taking
advantage of what the defense across
from him typically does. So I love seeing
that. He gets the most out of him typically does. So I love seeing that.
He gets the most out of his quarterbacks.
We've seen that with Deshaun Watson in 2020 and Davis Mills in 2021.
And he gets his quarterbacks on the move a lot more than the Titans did in 2021.
In 19 and 20, we saw the Titans get Tannehill out of the pocket,
getting on the move.
And that's what Tannehill does best is utilize his athleticism.
Get out of the pocket so he doesn't just have to sit there like a statue and go through his progressions.
Get Tannehill on the move.
Cut the field in half.
Give him one to two, high-low, easy reads.
Take advantage of his athleticism.
Take advantage of his strong arm.
The Titans didn't do that enough in 2021.
Maybe they were worried about getting him outside the pocket
he would get hit but it just seems counterintuitive
if the Titans have a bad pass blocking unit
why would you leave Tannehill in the pocket all the time
the point of getting your quarterback on the move and out of the pocket
is to reduce the risk of the pass rush
so it didn't make any sense
luckily Tim Kelly does a good job of getting quarterbacks on the move
and their efficiency when they're on the move is solid as well. He's great at attacking zones over the middle
of the field. We saw that against the Titans in week 18. He does a good job of taking the attention
of over the middle zone defenders one way or another and then creating open holes for our
second level routes and deep shots. That's something that we've talked about a lot.
So he really knows tendencies. He knows how to attack zones against defense. He uses deep digs
a ton and that's something the Titans are familiar with, but he uses them very well.
Misdirection and play action. He does a good job using. Now I want to mention about play action.
He is not a big play action guy, but again, the Texans didn't run the ball a ton with success
the last two years. And when you don't run the ball a ton with success the last two years.
And when you don't run the ball with any success,
you're not going to have as much success and as much effect in play action.
So we'll see how that goes with Tim Kelly.
You take what you can while still adding context
and not being blind to what the realities are.
Tim Kelly likes to use five wide shotgun.
I think that'll help the Titans out a lot.
If he's able to create creative route concepts.
With 11 personnel out of 5 wide formations.
Really like that.
And saw some good creative stuff in the RPO game.
From Tim Kelly when he was in Houston.
I mean it wasn't overwhelming.
He wasn't out there like Indianapolis running RPO.
Or San Francisco and things like that.
But saw some really creative adjustments in RPO or San Francisco and things like that, but saw some
really creative adjustments in RPO. He runs certain standard plays. He would make adjustments off that.
There was one particular RPO that I saw from Tim Kelly where he has two wide receivers on one side
of the field. He has one go all the way across the formation and motion, and then he runs an RPO
where he can dump it in the flat. Well, he did an adjustment where he had the wide receiver fake the motion and then go
back out to his original side and run a wheel route against cover three and it put the corner
back in conflict and it was an easy explosive pass play for a gain of 22 yards.
Stuff like that.
I'm excited to see if Tim Kelly's influence can help the Tennessee Titans from that standpoint.
So that is a full length three, three-part Tim Kelly breakdown,
his history, the statistics, the schematics.
And I've seen some really good stuff on Tim Kelly out there
that other Titans content creators have put out.
You know, everybody's really excited about Tim Kelly's hire.
I'm excited from what I'm seeing right here.
And you guys should be excited as well. Don't let any
Texans fans who are salty AF
tell you that Tim Kelly's some
bum who can't run the ball. Who could
have run the ball well other than Kyle
Shanahan with the Texans
roster in 2020 and 2021?
Come on, man.
Give me a break there. A terrible offensive line
and terrible running backs.
So, I'm going to give Tim Kelly not a complete pass,
but at least some context needs to be added there.
But really what's most exciting and what he was brought here to do
is help with the passing game.
And with all the statistics and the schematic stuff we talked about,
we have seen that Tim Kelly can make a drastic positive impact on a passing offense.
So hopefully that happens with the Titans.
And if things don't get better, hopefully Todd Downing just gets the boot.
And now Tim Kelly is ready to take over and fill that spot with still some continuity
as we go through the 2022 season.
So very excited to get into that.
Can't wait to watch Tim Kelly have an impact on the offense like Jim Schwartz did
on the defensive side of the ball.
But that's going to do it for me today, though, folks.
I know this is coming out on a Friday, but Saturday, Saturday morning,
I am going to put out a Saturday special since there wasn't a Tuesday show
when I was moving.
I'm going to make sure you guys get five shows this week.
Saturday is going to be a special Locked on Titans Super Bowl preview.
I'm going to cover any Titans news that may pop up
in the next 24 hours or so, but
I'm going to give you guys my Super Bowl prediction,
talk to you guys about some Super Bowl
prop bets that I'm interested in,
and we'll just kind of do a little bit of a breakdown
there. So excited for that Saturday
special edition of the Locked on Titans
podcast. Thank you all so much. I hope you
enjoyed this breakdown. Make sure you subscribe
on whatever platform you do stream.
That's going to do it for me today, though, folks.
As always, I am your host, Tyler Rowland, and this was Locked on Titans.