Locked On Titans - Daily Podcast On The Tennessee Titans - Locked On Titans- Dec.16- Prediction Friday

Episode Date: December 16, 2016

It's time for predictions on the Friday edition. #BHop #TerryMc #GregA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Learn more about our healthy benefits at fepblue.org slash getmore. You are Locked on Titans, your daily podcast on the Tennessee Titans. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. And welcome to Locked on Titans, your daily source for all Titans news and information with your host, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com, Greg Arias, and former Tennessee Titans All-Pro Left Tackle Brad Hopkins. Guys, it's Friday. We are closing in on another weekend of Titans football.

A lot of things to get to today. Obviously, game analysis and predictions of what we feel like is going to be the outcome when the Titans get to Kansas City to face the Chiefs this weekend. But first, current news. And, Terry, we start with the injury report where Jarrell Casey did a little bit more today, but it still does not look good for him to participate in the game on Sunday at this point. Well, he went to individual as he did yesterday. He did a little bit more today.

Still haven't gotten him involved at all in the team drills. That'll be the big test. They may try to do that tomorrow, but it's certainly a wait-and-see proposition right now for Casey. Brad, certainly that would be a big loss again this week, and perhaps even more so since this is a road game against a team that gets rid of the ball and throws with such rhythm and quickness to not have Casey in the middle of this thing to try to at least put some pressure in there.

Yeah, it's funny, Greg, that you mention that. We're talking about a weekend where Marcus Mariota is coming off of a season low in completion, and Alex Smith is basically coming off of a season high in completion. So pass rush is definitely going to be important this weekend, you know, getting him off of his marks and not allowing them to hit some of his weapons. Because seemingly this year he has so many of them, Terry,

Greg with obviously Travis Kelsey being a huge target of tight end. Tariq Hill has showed up not only to be a special teams threat, but a guy that with the ball in his hands on offense can be a difference maker. So they're going to have to definitely be very disciplined this weekend. Other injuries? No doubt about it. Sorry, Terry, go ahead. Oh, there's no doubt about that.

I mean, you know, the Chiefs do have enough weapons that they certainly bring a bit of concern to you. And like Brad said, if you don't have Jarrell Casey and then you may not have Carl Klug either, it's going to be a challenge to this defense. That was the next thing on the injury report, Terry. The absence of today, no practice for Carl Klug with that Achilles injury. Sean Spence also did not practice today.

And linebacker David Bass with a groin injury was limited in practice today. So that's four potential guys all on the defensive side of the football that could be out of this game on Sunday. And now all of a sudden you think the Titans' defense against a pretty good offense in Kansas City with a lot of guys that could be missing. Yeah, I mean, they talked like Bass would probably still be able to go, but I think the jury's still out on Klug and Spence

since they haven't done anything at all this week in the way of practice. So there's at least three guys that look to be very questionable. We'll get the official report later today as to what their status will be. But certainly if you're missing three pieces of the defense that you normally would have, that is something that is certainly a concern for the Titans. Now, Greg, I also think that, you know, when you look at, you know, just some of their issues, this is a...

When you're usually relying on talent and asking sometimes to get you, you know, a lot of productivity on defense, I think this is one of those weekends, Terry, you might agree that, you know, Dick LeBeau's definitely going to earn his paycheck. He's going to have to manufacture and schematically confuse Alex Smith

and do some of the things that, you know, he was able to use with personnel. He's going to have to basically and schematically confuse Alex Smith and do some of the things that he's able to use with personnel. He's going to have to basically get into his old bag of tricks and see if he can't come up with some big plays this weekend to really kind of get ahead of the Chiefs on the road. Yeah, I think so. I think that's definitely a good point right there. LeBeau, if he's going to be shorthanded, he's going to probably empty all the bullets that he has in terms of blitzes and in terms of

tricking Alex Smith maybe into baiting him by disguising coverages and things like that. It's going to be interesting to see exactly how the Titans' defense approaches it. They probably will have a few tricks up

their sleeve, especially if they're missing a couple of their better pass rushers in the defensive line with Casey and Kluge, both very questionable at this point. Now, Brad, you mentioned Dick LeBeau and his bag of tricks, but can he really manufacture enough against this Kansas City offense with the preciseness and the rhythm? There was a stat I saw the other day, I think 2.3 seconds

from the time the ball is snapped until it's out of Alex Smith's hands. That's not a lot of time for pass rushers to get there and affect the quarterback. And with potentially Casey missing, maybe Klug as well, can Dick LeBeau really do anything to manufacture pressure on him? Absolutely. I mean, you have to basically surprise a guy like Alex Smith. He's more veteran than people would realize. Therefore, he's a real student of understanding what defenses try

and take away from him as far as his weapons. But what I think that Dick LeVoe can do also by scheme is attack him in areas that he hasn't been attacked from. Maybe use guys in certain situations, whether it be fire zones and things where you're dropping defensive linemen off into coverage or you're rolling safeties over and putting the linebacker here and there. I mean, there's all kinds of things that you can do, but you just basically have to be unpredictable

when it comes to what your attack is going to be. That's the only way, in my opinion, that you're going to at least create time enough to be able to get there and get Alex Smith on the ground. Brad, I think it's very important. Given that the Chiefs run the West Coast offense and they do a lot of three-step drops, the ball comes out quickly, you know the chance to getting a sack is probably minimal on a lot of downs.

So that means that those linebackers and those guys in the secondary, they've got to be sure tacklers. They've got to limit the run after catch. They want to throw a three-yard pass, fine, make it a three-yard gain, that sort of thing. Don't let that three-yard pass turn into a 12- or 15-yard gain. Right. I agree with that 100%. And one way to do that, too, Terry and Greg,

is to be physical at the line of scrimmage. They have five yards to play with. They have to disrupt routes, and you talk about the three-step drop being an advantage for their offense. It really is. But if that tight end is maybe a step or two behind where he's supposed to be, which allows the defense just a second or two to be able to get there, then that's where I can think maybe the Titans can take advantage.

Brad, that's something that I am a big fan of defensively. I don't understand, and I know the concepts or at least the principles behind them. I can't swear that I know all of them, obviously. But why we don't see more of that, get up at the line of scrimmage and be physical with receivers getting off the ball and try to disrupt them and throw them off those routes so that they can't necessarily be as quick in the passing game

or get to the certain spots a lot of time on some of these timing plays that are so big in offenses right now? I think it's trust. I mean, you've got to trust the first off. You've got to be physical at the line of scrimmage and then not get beat in a route or something like that. And then also putting pressure on guys, their safeties, rolling over to help. Knowing where your help is, making sure everyone is doing their job, making sure no one comes freely through their zone, those kind of things. You know, putting hands on receivers when they come passing through there

without the football, you know, those are the things that actually can, you know, set the tone, too, for the Titans this weekend. Guys, I want to throw some numbers at you here, and you tell me which team I'm talking about when I give you these numbers. The total offense, 372.3 yards per game. That's good for eighth overall in offense in the NFL. Which team is that, Kansas City or the Titans? I'd probably say

the Kansas City Chiefs, Terry. What I said is Marcus Mariota's now got a piece on the deep ball, and Alex Smith is a really, really accomplished marksman, so I would have figured that it was him offensively.

What do you think? I'll say the Titans just to make it a competition between us. Well, Terry, in making it a competition, you are correct. The Titans currently are eighth in the NFL in total offense. Kansas City is 24th.

Now, here's the difference between eighth and 24th. The Titans at 372.3 yards per game, good for eighth. Kansas City, 332.5. That's 24th. So you're talking 39 yards and some percentage points difference in being 8th overall and being 24th overall. Now when you look at them passing the football, the Titans are 25th at 227.8 yards a game,

while the Chiefs are 18th at 236.4. It's the running offense, guys, where the Titans make the big difference. 144.5, good for third overall in the NFL. The Chiefs, 25th. They average just 96.2 yards per game rushing the football. So when you look at the two offenses, one wants to get it done throwing, one wants to get it done on the ground. Yeah, it's interesting.

Go ahead, Terry. You know, I mean, for years and years, I've always thought of the Kansas City Chiefs as a running team, especially when they had Jamal Charles healthy and in that backfield. It's interesting to me kind of the transformation that they've made. You know, they were a team that kind of reminded me of the way the Titans used to be where they would want to throw the tight end and run the football all the time and not really have much in the way of a presence

outside. But that's slowly but surely starting to change with Kansas City, it looks like. I kind of think this team looks a lot like Andy Reid's old Philadelphia Eagles teams, where he had a guy that was pretty good coming out of the backfield, very diverse, but he also had a tight end to go to and at least a deep threat. So he brings Jeremy Macklin over with him. Obviously, Travis Kelsey is one of the best tight ends in the game.

And even though, like you said, Terry, they don't have Jamal Charles, Spencer Ware is a guy that's at 790 yards so far for the season, and Charles Sandrick West is right underneath him in just 54 carries for 195 yards. So they're trying to find a way to spread the football on the ground while also, like you said, dink and dunk every now and then and get the consistent yards. Now, when we look at the defensive numbers, guys, and what these teams are doing. Kansas City against the run.

They are giving up 122.9 yards per game, which is good for 27th overall in the NFL. The Titans are third in running the football, 144.5. So that tells me that the Titans should be able to come into this game and have some success running the football, which is obviously what they want to do. And by running the football, guys, as we all know, they keep Alex Smith and that offense on the sideline if they're able to do so, Brad. Yeah, what they want to do is they want to get after the passer. You know, they want to get Justin Houston.

They want to get Tom Bahaly. And, you know, they want to get guys like that, like Dee Ford. They want to get these guys basically upfield and chasing the passer. But if you're running downhill at them, and obviously you're staying out third in long situations where you can be in three-step drops and things like that, then, you know, it's hard for the Kansas City Chiefs basically to get the ball back in instances. So I can definitely see that probably part of the game plan.

Terry? Yeah, you know, Brad, one of the game plan. Terry? Yeah. You know, Brad, one of the things that I think in terms of the Titans and how they want to operate in this game, you know, I think it's actually somewhat similar to the way they attacked the Denver Broncos last week. You know, hold the ball by running it, running it successfully. Now I think they need a few more passing yards than they got last week.

But certainly the Chiefs secondary is very opportunistic, just like the Broncos, and they want to get after the quarterback with Justin Houston and those guys. So, you know, to me it's a very similar game plan in terms of how the offense is going to try to operate. Guys, I'm going to throw another quiz question at you here. Playing teacher today, which one of these defenses is ranked higher

overall in total defense? Titans. Terry? Actually, I think that is correct, even though you would never have guessed that. Simply by the way the Titans have given up yards in the past, but I do think that's correct. Absolutely. The Titans are ranked 22nd overall and Kansas City 27th overall. But when we look at this, we talk about how good, and rightfully so,

Kansas City's defense is good. But to me, what makes this defense so good is the turnovers, guys. They are plus 25, or excuse me, plus 11 in turnovers, and not only do they make the turnovers, they, kind of like Alabama on the college side of things, they score off of them. They turn defensive plays into touchdowns like nobody else in the league, and certainly when you can go and get points on the board without your offense ever having to take the field, that's's big and that's really hard to overcome in this league terry

yeah it really is then you throw in tyreek hill on special teams and the ability that he has as a punt returner that's another weapon and one of the things i asked andy reed on the conference call today he said that you know that uh he's the type of coach he expects contributions and points from all three phases so those numbers right there what you just spit out there uh you know that it bears that out that the chiefs you know while they may give up a lot of yards and you know they may not be statistically dominant in terms of the way the league ranks uh its offenses and defenses and whatnot they are getting the job done in the most important categories, which is turnover margin and which, of course, leads to points.

And those are the two most important stats, regardless of where anything else ranks. I think, too, between these two defenses, though, too, you're also looking at Justin Houston, a guy like that, or a deep board that has 10 sacks. Brian Rackle has 10 sacks, and Derek Morgan has 9 sacks. There's also a few other guys spreading around that can apply pressure. Wesley Wood, he's got a couple chiming in.

Jarrell Case in the middle has got 3 sacks this year. Carl Kluge has got a sack and a half. Avery Williamson's got a couple of sacks. So they're spreading it around as far as whoever actually shows up on that weekend to kind of apply pressure. Maybe they can come from different directions this way to not allow Alex Smith an opportunity to get a beat on which way they're coming from.

Guys, just to finish the thought on these statistics defensively, the run defenses, the Titans are third in the NFL in run defense, allowing 86.6 yards per game. Kansas City, as I mentioned a moment ago, giving up 122.9. That's good for 17th. So the Titans better run defense. The Chiefs better pass defense, 251.2 yards per game given up. That's good for 18th in the NFL.

Here's where the Titans struggle, guys, 31st against the pass, giving up 274.9 yards per game and certainly when you talk about it we know Kansas City they're not going to want to run that much they're going to want to throw I think that's where it gets a little dicey for the Titans if they can't get pressure in this game and that's kind of what makes me uncomfortable about this matchup yeah it does and Brad I'll get your comment on this uh you know one of the things that uh you know is going to play a factor in this game is the fact that it's supposed to be somewhere around 12 degrees at kickoff how does that adverse how does that adversely affect a passing game especially

and uh and or does it maybe it helps the passing game you know because the defense you know the defensive backs uh you know don't know where, you know, don't know where they're going. The receivers do know where they're going. And maybe there's a chance for a broken play that turns into a big play, something like that. How does the cold affect you? I remember you can probably talk about that game in New England when it was, I think, negative for the kickoff.

Well, the ball, first off, Terry, you remember when you were there, the ball doesn't leave the quarterback's hands, you know, with near as much spin as it does when it's warmer. Almost even fluid motions are a little more difficult when it comes to dealing with those kind of increment weather with the climate being that low. You know, I just think that this is kind of weather. When you run the football, they say that the best teams

run the football in November and December. Well, with this kind of weather, this is really kind of weather. When you run the football, they say that the best teams run the football in November and December. Well, with this kind of weather, this is really indicative of that. So I think that it's pretty, and particularly on the road. This is Arrowhead Stadium, guys. If you think you're going to be throwing the football around where you can't hear even your own voice, that's a mistake that the Titans don't want to get into, particularly holding on to.

The only way the Titans are, in my opinion, going to have an advantage this weekend is to give the ball to those two backs, even throwing it to them out of the backfield because trying to get the receivers, as far as the deep game involved, could be an all-day pickle. That's why the Titans really cannot afford to get behind and try and come from behind to beat the Chiefs on the road. In Arrowhead, it's almost impossible. Now, Terry, you notice when Brad talked,

he was talking about quarterbacks and motions and things. He wasn't talking about those offensive linemen because we know those guys go out there in short sleeves and get down and dirty in this thing, don't they, Brad? Absolutely. Absolutely. I mean, those are state-of-mind games. You know what I mean?

You have to be focused on everything that you're doing out there. But think about it realistically, guys. The only time that the weather is really, really an issue when it comes to that kind of cold is when you're standing around during TV timeouts. Because, you know, Terry, on the sidelines, they have those jet-propelled heaters that can actually set a jacket on fire. The benches themselves are heated as well. And, of course, when you're out there performing a play,

your journal is pumping so high that you're almost 100 degrees yourself. So the only time you're cold is when the action stops. And besides, I think Munch and Bruce had a hard and fast rule that if you didn't wear sleeves in – that in order to wear sleeves in December and January, you had to wear sleeves in August and September. Am I correct? Absolutely.

Man, you're an old dog, right? You remember those old days. Yeah. Well, I mean, we used to have a fine system in place. If you actually had an article of clothing on your body that you didn't have at the beginning of the season, you got fined $100. And you know what else that included? That included the balms and things that you put on your arms to you didn't have at the beginning of the season, you got fined $100. And you know what else that included? That included the balms and things that you put on your arms to keep the heat

in. If you didn't do that in the summertime, you got fined as well. So it was always fun. Those were the good old days, guys. Great to go down memory lane there and hear the names Bruce and Munch. You know, those are all timers along with you, Brad, for Titans fans. I'm sure people enjoy hearing those stories and perhaps we'll get some more of those here over the next week or two as we close in on hopefully the playoffs. But as we

close in on the end of our time today, it's time for predictions. Who wants to go first? All right, I'll go first. You know, this is a big game, a big game for both teams. You know, the Kansas City Chiefs fighting to win the AFC West, which is probably the best division in football, and maybe even have a shot at home field advantage. And the Titans, obviously, as we've talked about all throughout the week, tied for the lead in the AFC South,

trying to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2008. I think it's going to be one of those classic games, just a lot like last week. It's going to be low scoring. I think the cold is going to keep the score down. I think you're going to see two defenses, even though they're not very highly rated statistically at all, I think they're probably going to dictate a lot of the tempo of the game.

I think Brad's point is well taken. Both teams are probably going to need to run the football with some sort of success. It's going to be interesting to me to see exactly how this plays out. I know it's a game that's vital for both teams' playoff hopes. I think the Titans can win this game, but it's certainly going to be a tough challenge. I think it'll be low scoring. I'm going to say 20-16. I can go with the Chiefs just because they're at home. It's actually funny that you say that,

how pivotal this game is for both teams. I'm under the belief, Terry, Greg, that this isn't necessarily as vital for the Titans. You know, obviously having to leave in the division is paramount, but I think the head-to-head between the Houston Texans, who are also tied to this division, is probably going to be the deciding factor because both teams have Jacksonville on the schedule before the season ends,

and I think that that probably presents an opportunity for both teams to get a W before heading into a head-to-head, which might be for all the marbles. So I just don't want to give the impression to Titans fans that are watching this weekend that it's a sink-or-swim type situation for the Titans, because it's not. I mean, worst-case scenario, the Titans come out of Kansas City a loser, but they're still at.500, which is a tremendous accomplishment in itself, and they're obviously still very much in the hunt, having to at least have maybe even control their own destiny

if they can take care of the Texans at home to finish off the seed. So there's still hope there, guys. And your prediction? Ah, that's a good question. You know what? I think it's going to be a low scoring affair i think it has to be a low scoring affair i think that the titans in what they're thinking is win the title possession alex can't score touchdowns if he and the offense for the chiefs are on the sideline

so i expect a low scoring affair maybe a turnover is the difference give me 13 to 7 well i guess i'm the tiebreaker today since one has gone Kansas City and one has gone with the Titans. I'll tell you my score now. 2014 is going to be my final score in this game. I think the winning team has two touchdowns, two field goals. Obviously, the losing team with two touchdowns in this thing. As was said earlier in the podcast, teams in November and December that can run the football win games.

The Titans certainly would seem statistically to be the better of the two teams at running the football and the better of the two teams at stopping the run. So the Titans should have an advantage there. When you look at the other side of the numbers, you see Kansas City and their passing offense and what they do. The Titans 31st out of 32 teams against the pass. So that doesn't bode well. So where does it come down to?

I honestly think that the Titans in this game run the football straight ahead, not wide, straight up the middle, force Kansas City to stop them, which they've struggled at times to do this season against teams obviously based on those numbers. You keep Alex Smith and Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey and company on the sideline, it's hard for them to hurt you. I think the Titans will run the football,

run the football, and run the football some more. Just enough passing in it to keep them honest. The Titans get this one 22-14, guys. It's funny, Terry, or Greg, that we both had the Titans scoring at least a touchdown but two field goals. So maybe Mr. Suckup will be more important in this game than most would realize. I probably think it's going to come down to maybe his foot. Well, you know, and that's a good point, Brad, and I didn't actually think

about that until you said this, but where did he come from before he came to the Titans? Kansas City. So he is a veteran of kicking in that stadium, and the conditions obviously can affect things, but certainly from a know-the-stadium standpoint, he should know how to handle things in that environment. And you and I both, as you said, had two field goals there, Terry. Yeah, I think so. And like I said, I said 20 to 16,

so there are probably field goals involved in that score. I think points are going to be at a premium on Sunday, and your point is well taken in the fact that the Titans are the better running team, which probably gives them a decent chance to come out of there with a win. Guys, time is at a premium for us. That will do it for us on this

Friday edition. Nice little change over there, huh? Segway for me. I like that. That does it for us on this Friday. Enjoy the games this weekend. Have a great weekend, and we'll be back with you on Monday for more Locked on Titans. You are Locked on Titans, your daily Tennessee Titans podcast,

part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day.