Locked On Titans - Daily Podcast On The Tennessee Titans - Locked on Titans: Looking at the AFC Playoff Picture
Episode Date: December 6, 2017Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices ...
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome in to another edition of Locked On Titans. I'm Jimmy Morris, joined as always by Terry Lambert. Terry, how are you tonight?
Doing good, man. What's going on?
Not too much. You know, there's not a whole lot of news usually that comes out on Tuesdays, and today is not really an exception to that rule.
I did catch a little bit of Mike Malarkey's radio show on Titans Radio tonight, and he said that he doesn't anticipate Logan Ryan or Delaney Walker
practicing tomorrow or on Wednesday.
So not a big surprise there.
I mean, Logan Ryan's in the concussion protocol.
We'll have to see how that plays out.
Everybody progresses through that differently,
and so it'll just kind of be a day-by-day thing with him.
I still think Delaney's going to play.
I don't think there's any doubt about that.
Malarkey also said that he thought Richard Matthews would be limited tomorrow.
But, you know, expressed optimism on Monday that Matthews would be able to play against the Cardinals.
So it sounds like they'll be at pretty good strength.
I mean, obviously we talked last night about Daquan Jones going on IR.
So they'll be missing him clearly for the rest of the year.
But I would say there's a good shot that they're
at full strength, at least on offense this week.
I would say monitor what goes
on with Logan Ryan. It'll be good, if nothing else,
to see the offense,
the starting 11 that they
thought they would have at the beginning of the year, out
there this week.
For as healthy as they've been,
the offense hasn't been all together
very much this year.
Yeah, and they're going to need them, especially if Logan Ryan misses.
But, again, we'll see where that's at tomorrow.
But they're going to need Richard Matthews, I think, on this road trip.
Don't get sucked into thinking the Cardinals are a bad team or even the 49ers.
I mean, we've seen in the NFL this year, really every year,
any team can beat anybody.
You've got to show up every Sunday.
So, again, with a team like the Titans who are just kind of scraping by,
you know, you want them to show you something.
You know, we've wanted that for four, five, six weeks now.
So, maybe that's a spot where you can do it, playing against Blaine Gabbert.
But even Gabbert's playing some good ball right now.
So Titans got to be on their A game.
Yeah, and again, we're waiting for that win, right,
where they just come in and stomp a team.
It's going to happen one day.
Maybe.
Maybe it will.
But anyway, so we'll have all the news on that tomorrow.
And tomorrow we'll really start to dig into the Cardinals
and kind of the individual matchups there.
But tonight we figured we'd talk a little bit about the playoff picture.
And Terry made a point before we came on tonight that we talked about
how the Titans are in a good position to make the playoffs,
but we haven't really looked at the teams that are around them and kind of some possible first-round matchups that the Titans could in a good position to make the playoffs, but we haven't really looked at the teams that are around them
and kind of some possible first-round matchups that the Titans could be facing.
So I'll talk a little bit about that tonight.
We've referenced Football Outsider.
But before we do that, let me tell you about Draft.
We've been talking about Draft for the last couple weeks.
It's a really cool new website that you should check out.
Fantasy Football fans, listen up.
It's not too late to join the 500,000 people that have already downloaded
a draft this season.
You get to play in a real live snake draft, but you're done under five minutes,
and it lasts just one week.
You can join one right now for week 14.
The best part, you play for cold, hard cash.
And get this, your chances of winning are 80% better than the salary cap sites.
All new players get a free entry into a real money draft
when you make your first deposit.
But you have to use the promo code LONFL.
That's right.
Play a real money game for free just by using the promo code LONFL.
And it gets even better.
Draft is so sure you'll love it that they're even offering Locked on Titans listeners a
money back guarantee up to $100.
Just search Draft in your app store or go to draft.com and come play for free right now
with promo code LONFL. And if you follow
me on Twitter, at jmorphsmcm,
I'll be tweeting out links to drafts that you can
jump in and play against me.
I love the site. I think it's really cool.
Like it says, you can do a snake draft
in less than a few minutes.
If you do head-to-heads, you pick
five players.
You get 30 seconds per pick, so it takes no time.
You can sit down.
You can do it real quick.
As soon as the draft fills, it'll say a minute until the draft starts.
A minute, clock counts down, you draft.
It's really cool.
So check that out.
Like I said, follow me on Twitter, at J. Morris MCM.
I'll be tweeting out links for chances to play against me.
So check that out this week.
And I really do think you'll like it, and it's something really cool,
especially if you're used to season-long.
It's a similar draft thing, but you might have missed your season-long playoffs.
They're starting this week.
This is a chance to jump in and kind of keep the action going.
So check it out again.
You can search draft in the App Store, and you can get the app on your phone.
There's their playoff odds uh you know kind of for the last couple of weeks the titans took a pretty significant jump there this week with with the win to move to
eight and four uh their odds of making the playoffs went up 20 percent so now you know according to
this metric they have an 88.6 percent chance of making the playoffs uh are still you know
significantly behind the jags the jags there is is 98.6% chance to make the playoffs. But
Titans are getting into that range where, you know,
barring just a collapse here,
you think they've got a good shot
for a wild card at least.
And then, you know, just looking at the teams
around them,
right now at 8-4,
the Titans-Jaguars are obviously above 8-4.
Titans are the division leader with
the win over the Jaguars earlier this season.
But the race for the second wildcard team behind whoever ends up coming in second in the AFC South
really comes down to the Buffalo Bills at 6-6, Ravens at 7-5,
and then in the AFC West you've got three teams at 6-6, the Chiefs, the Chargers, and the Raiders.
So the Titans are in a good spot to make the playoffs,
and they're really kind of two games clear of the team that, I guess, is in seventh right now.
Yeah, and you're looking at, assuming we think how things go,
you're looking at potentially a matchup with the Ravens or the Chiefs
or maybe even the Chargers.
The Chargers have come back and the Chiefs have kind of fallen off.
So you're looking at that Titans-Jaguars matchup to end the year
to kind of determine whether or not you're going to get the Ravens
or the Chiefs or the Chargers.
And I don't know about you, but to me, I'd much rather play the Ravens,
a team that has Joe Flacco, a team that really struggles on offense,
instead of a team like the Chargers who has Phillip Rivers and the Chiefs
who have been inconsistent and they've been down.
But still, that's a team that can go off and still pretty much beat anybody.
So, yeah, that Titans-Chicagoers game, as if it didn't mean enough,
it could be the difference in between playing a subpar Ravens team
versus a dangerous Chiefs or Chargers team.
Yeah, and the Chargers are really hot right now.
There's a month left to go in this season.
So we know how much things can change week to week in the NFL,
and especially over the course of a month.
I mean, just thinking back to the Chiefs at the beginning of the year,
through the first month of the season,
everybody thought they were the team to beat in the AFC,
and they've really fallen off.
They've lost four in a row.
But, yeah, I mean, when you get down to that, we saw the Ravens.
We know what they are.
That's not a game that I feel confident the Titans are going to win by a couple touchdowns just by, you know,
the nature of the two teams, the Ravens defense and all that stuff.
But you're also not afraid of the Joe Flacco-led offense.
And so when you look at that versus – you know,
you're not necessarily afraid of an Alex Smith,
but when you look at his weapons, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey,
if they could find a way to bring Kareem Hunt back from the dead, you know, they've got some weapons there.
And then, like you said, with Phillip Rivers and the Chargers and what we were talking about before we came on here,
I mean, the Titans have beaten the Chargers once in the last, like, 30 years almost.
years almost and um you know you have to go back to they they beat the chargers in san diego uh with on a justin hunter touchdown catch from jake locker all right so that's
right but before that the titans had the the titans hadn't beaten the chargers you have to
go back to the oilers days for the to look for a win from this franchise over the Chargers.
So just kind of some series.
And obviously that stuff doesn't mean anything, really, this year.
But like you said, you've got Phillip Rivers, you've got Ken Allen, you've got Melvin Gordon.
I mean, they've got some talented guys, and their defense is really, really talented.
Two really good corners, Bosa and Ingram rushing off the end.
So, I mean, they're a team.
You know, if you listen to, like, the ESPN stuff,
Mike Clay, who's their fantasy guy, but does a lot of projections
and that kind of stuff, so knows what teams have, you know,
on offense and defense and all that.
I mean, he picked the Chargers and the Eagles in the Super Bowl
at the beginning of the year.
Now, obviously, the Chargers prediction looked silly a month ago,
but now that they've, you know, gone on this run and they're kind of a team that's in control of things,
at least in that division now, saying if they win out they'll be in a position to go to the playoffs.
It's not a team, especially if you look at them winning, if they can win three out of the last four,
coming in on a hot streak, winning seven out of eight or whatever it'll be,
that's not the type of team that you want to face in the playoffs.
And then you look, too, one of the other potential matchups would be Titans-Jaguars two weeks in a row,
depending on how all that plays out.
Again, if the Titans, if it stays like it is right now, like if the season ended today, the Ravens would be coming here
and the Jaguars would go to Kansas City.
That would be your first weekend in the AFC,
with the Chiefs being the AFC West champion,
the Titans being the AFC South champion.
And so the Titans have the better record.
So they would get the sixth seed.
So that would be the Ravens. The Jaguars would get the sixth seed. So that would be the Ravens.
The Jaguars would be the fifth seed.
Then we go to Kansas City.
You know, when you get into talking about playing the same team back-to-back,
I mean, we've seen it a few times in recent years.
You know, that's just a weird deal.
And, you know, you would hope that the Titans would be the division winners
and the game would be here.
But I don't know.
That's not a scenario that I'm necessarily comfortable with.
No, and, you know, like we've said all along,
the Jaguars are a high-variance team.
They'll go kind of as their defense goes.
But at any point in time, Blake Bortles could totally ruin them.
So they're just another team in the league
that you just really don't know what you're going to get.
If I had to guess, I would say the Titans, Jaguars, and Ravens
are pretty much in, along with Steelers and Patriots.
So you've got that one spot left kind of really between the Chiefs
and the Chargers.
I'm not a big believer in the Bills.
Raiders have a tough schedule.
So you look at the Ravens' schedule.
You've got a game against the Steelers this week
and then you finish up with the Browns Colts and the Bengals so three bad teams that the
Ravens should be able to beat so that gets you to 10 and 6 now I'll ask you this are you comfortable
with the Titans finishing potentially and you know the bottom would kind of have to fall out here
but are you comfortable with the Titans finishing nine and and, you know, the bottom would kind of have to fall out here.
But are you comfortable with the Titans finishing 9-7?
Would that get them in?
I think 9-7 would get them in because I think that the – I think whoever ends up in second in the AFC West is going to be 8-8.
So I think your division winner out West probably ends up 9-7,
and then you're looking at an 8-8 team.
So, yeah, I do think 9-7 would get them in.
Now, how good are we going to feel about a Titans 9-7 team?
Think about how good we feel about an 8-4 team,
and you're thinking about they would win one of their last four.
So, obviously, that's not a place we want to be.
But I do think that 9-7 will get you in the AFC.
We were looking before we came on at the NFC,
and it's just a completely different deal.
They've got teams that are – their two wild card teams right now
both have eight wins.
And you've got another team sitting at 7 and five and some teams sitting at six and six
so it's a completely different deal
over there. Nine and seven probably won't get you in
in the NFC but I do think
it will in the AFC
and I think that would probably
get you to six and eight because I do think the Ravens
probably end up ten and six.
So yeah, I mean
so then you're probably looking at going to
Jacksonville,
would be my guess, if that's how it plays out for the Titans.
Because when you look at the Jaguars' remaining schedule,
they got Seattle this week, but it's in Jacksonville,
and then they finish up Texans at 49ers and then here,
so after this week against the Seahawks.
So, I mean, you figure for the, I mean, I think kind of worst-case scenario
there for the Jaguars is probably 2-2.
And so that would get them to 10-6.
And then so the Titans did finish 9-7,
then I do think you'd be looking at that 6-8.
So, yeah, I mean, I don't think we'd feel good about that team,
especially that, you know, again, we talk about them limping to 8-4.
If you talk about limping to 9 and seven into the playoffs um but you know again and we've had we've kind of
talked even about this team what they are and how we think they're going to make the playoffs we
don't they're going to make a lot of noise in the playoffs but just think about all the teams we've
talking about them possibly matching up against i mean i think there's absolutely a chance they could win the first round of the playoffs.
Now, if you've got to go to Foxborough or Pittsburgh in the second round,
I don't obviously like those games.
But, you know, between the Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens, Jaguars,
I mean, I feel confident the Titans could beat any of those teams.
Not that they would necessarily win, or especially if they're not on the road,
they're not going to be favored.
I mean, if they're on the road, they're not going to be favored.
But it's not – those are not games that I think the Titans absolutely had no chance to win,
like I will if they're facing the Steelers or the Patriots.
Yeah, I'm with you.
I mean, you know, it's a thing where you're not expecting the Titans
to go in the Super Bowl this year.
But, you know, you hear a whole summer's worth of hype on this team.
You kind of get some unrealistic expectations.
You kind of feel like, all right, well, they're going to go hang with New England
and Pittsburgh and they're going to go make some noise.
And it's just not the case.
They're a couple steps behind those teams.
They're not a player away from competing with those teams.
It's just early.
You're probably two years out from that, you hope.
So as we've said all along,
it's important to kind of keep your expectations in check.
But, you know, this is exactly where I thought this team would be.
I said 10-6 coming into the year.
You've got these two games against the Cardinals and 49ers coming up
that you should win to get you two 10 wins.
And from there, you know, you'd like to win the next two as well,
but it might not matter.
Of course it matters. You want to go win the division, but you'd still be win the next two as well, but it might not matter. Of course it matters.
You want to go win the division, but you'd still be in the playoffs.
So these next two games are huge for me personally.
I'm really concerned about the Rams coming to town.
And then, like we've said all along,
you just don't know what you're going to get with the Jaguars.
So these next two games are the most important two games of the season.
Obviously right now every game is the most important game of the season.
But like we said all along, you're 8-4.
You're a good team in the NFL.
Go beat the guys you're supposed to beat.
Yeah.
And, you know, again, just think about different teams
and how you felt about them as the season has gone along.
We talked about the Chiefs and the Chargers and the difference that they've made.
Think about the Raiders and the expectations that they had coming into the season,
and they're sitting at 6-6.
So, I mean, a lot can change over the course of the season,
and even, you know, like you said, week to week.
So I think that if the Titans can go out there
and decisively win these two
games out west, then we're going to have a very different feeling about them
coming home to face the Rams.
And that'll be, you know, hopefully they can win both games.
And then that's when you're going to say, okay, now here comes the Rams,
assuming, you know, they – I don't even know who they have in the next two weeks.
But they're a team that has been really good, especially against bad teams.
I mean, they've got a good offense.
They're an up-and-coming team in the league.
So then you can kind of say, okay, if the Titans are sitting, let's say, at 10-4 with that Rams game,
and then they go out and look good there, then you could have a completely different impression of this team
than you do right now.
And so, I mean, I think all that's important to keep in mind.
And if they can kind of build off of the success they had in the run game.
Because if you look at the game against the Texans,
the Texans defense is unbelievably beat up.
I mean, their whole team is.
But if you look at that game, that was one of the,
maybe the most successful, like, carry-by-carry game this team has had
because we've talked about how, you know,
some of these games you look back on and the numbers are skewed
because, like, the big run for DeMarco against the Seahawks,
the big run for Derrick Henry at the end against the Colts,
and obviously he had one this week,
but the numbers were good for the two backs.
I mean, DeMarco averaged like seven yards a carry, something like that,
on his carries.
So maybe they figured something out there.
Maybe Luke Stocker comes in and, you know, gives them what they've been missing
or at least, you know, makes it a little bit better.
If we can see that happen, and that's what you've been talking about all along,
is this offense is going to go once the run game starts going.
Well, if they figured something out there then there's it's not impossible to think that we could have a much better feeling about this team in a couple weeks
if they go out there and take care of business which they could do but i do think we're still
all eyes are going to be on the rush game. And I think for you and I, that's what's going to kind of set our feelings
or our expectations about what this team can do going forward
is if they can find success there.
Yeah, it's a long season.
Anybody can get hot.
It's like I was telling you, I'm kind of apprehensive to jump on board fully
and fully buy in.
But if I saw them go to Arizona and blow the Cardinals out
and run for 200 yards, yeah, I'd jump on.
I'd be like, bring on Tom Brady.
But we haven't seen that.
So it's really hard to hop on board.
So to circle back around to the Rams, they've got the Eagles
and then at Seattle left,
and then they'll come to Nashville.
So that's two really tough games leading up to that game in Nashville.
But, yeah, I think you made a really good point about managing expectations.
You look at the Buccaneers.
That was a team that was kind of the sexy pick,
the trendy pick to go contend in the NFC.
You know, Jameis Winston was going to go and take over the league
and become one of the better quarterbacks in the league.
They're 4-8.
The wheels have fallen off for Jameis and the Buccaneers.
So, again, like I've said all along,
it's just such a weird spot to be in for Titans fans.
At the end of the day, you're still 8-4.
So I guess you've got to buy in.
And I think some of it's just kind of knowing that this team isn't ready
to go compete with the Patriots.
I think similar to that is kind of the Alabama effect in the SEC.
Nick Saban's kind of ruined the league.
You see coaches fired every year.
So when you're measuring up to Alabama or measuring up to the Patriots, it's hard.
It's hard to kind of keep the expectations in check.
It's hard to see progress.
But, you know, eight and four, that's all you can ask for at this point.
Yeah, and I think a couple things just as we wrap up here.
One, I think we would feel better about this team if Marcus was playing better.
You know, I think that really carries a lot of weight
as far as the way people view this team.
If they were 8-4 and winning ugly but he was playing um no they probably wouldn't be winning as ugly if he were playing
well but let's say it was kind of similar to last year and they were putting a bunch of points
every week but giving a bunch of points but winning games right i think everybody would feel a little
better about this team because hey we got the quarterback and he could do whatever i think
that's part of the reason that we we don't feel as good about this team as we thought maybe we would but then like you said i mean there's teams like the raiders and the buccaneers
and you know those teams that were supposed to really take that next step this year and you know
we're teams that early like everybody was on early in the year and the titans are better off than both
of them at this point so you got to keep that in mind and again you have to keep in mind how bad
this team was just two years ago.
I mean, we lost sight of that because of the success that they had last year,
how good we feel about free agent classes and draft classes and all that stuff.
This team had, I mean, the least amount of talent on it in the league
at least three years ago.
Three years ago they were absolutely the worst
team in the league so you know just to think about how far they've come in that time and then just
think about you know we're only two years into the john robinson era and how how far they've come
with him and just think about you know another off season another off season after that because
you've got really that before you have to i mean they might redo marcus's contract at some point in the
next couple years but i mean they wouldn't have to until then so you know when you've got your
quarterbacks on his rookie deal that gives you the freedom to to add some pieces and if you have
good draft classes obviously you know that that builds up the floor anyway so i don't know i mean
i think that i i will i will say that you and I are negative.
I think we're more realistic about what we're seeing and about, you know, kind of maybe tempering expectations.
But overall, if you step back and look at just the big picture and how far the Titans have come in just two years,
you have to be really happy with where they are.
And, you know, we'll take a playoff appearance.
We'll get a playoff win.
Hey, that's great.
But then, you know, the bar will be that much higher,
and we'll expect them to be that much better next year.
I totally agree.
I mean, I couldn't say any better.
Two years ago, this team had the number one overall pick.
So think about that for a minute,
and think about that they're the three seed in the playoffs right now.
So, I mean, that's really all you need to say.
So we can bicker about, you know, little things not going well.
Marcus Mariota not playing well, that's a big deal.
Don't get me wrong.
But the roster as a whole is coming along. So I'm just going to assume that they're kind of in a slump right now,
but they're still winning in a slump.
So that's really good news.
Yeah, absolutely.
All right, so I think that'll pretty much do it for us tonight.
Tomorrow night we'll be back,
and we'll get into the matchups with the Cardinals.
There's a lot of interesting pieces there,
and again, I think a key will be whether or not Logan Ryan plays,
and I don't know that we'll know that tomorrow
necessarily but
I think there's
many matchups that the Titans have there
and I think some places they can take advantage of
anything else before we get out Terry
I don't think so
alright so that'll do it for Locked on
Titans tonight again you can follow us on Twitter
I'm at jmorrismcm
Terry's at tlambertfb. We write from
ucmiracles.com and we'll have a lot more
on the Titans on this game and all that stuff coming up.
So check us out there. So for Terry, this is
Jimmy saying thanks for listening to Locked on Titans and we
will talk to you tomorrow.