Locked On Titans - Daily Podcast On The Tennessee Titans - Tennessee Titans MUST Trade Up in NFL Draft if Ryan Tannehill is Traded, Cap Implications and Compensation

Episode Date: February 16, 2023

The Tennessee Titans have been rumored to be shopping Ryan Tannehill. If they do that, it is a MUST they also trade up for a QB in the NFL Draft. Tyler goes over the cap implications of a Tannehill trade. Also, what kind of return would the Titans get on Tannehill. Tyler explains why that trade return would give them enough to make a trade up in the NFL Draft. Also, take a look at the 2024 cap situation to better see why a trade up this year for a QB makes a ton of sense.Follow Tyler on Twitter @TicTacTitansFollow the show on Facebook @LockedOnTitansPodSubscribe to the Locked On Titans YouTube channel:https://www.youtube.com/c/LockedOnTitans/videosSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetterHelpThis episode is brought to you by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at Betterhelp.com/LockedOn and get on your way to being your best self.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Ultimate Football GMTo download the game just visit Ultimate-GM.com or look it up on the app stores. Our listeners get a 100% free boost to their franchise when using the promo LOCKEDON (ALL CAPS) in the game store.FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Place your first FIVE DOLLAR bet to get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Free Bets – win or lose! Visit Fanduel.com/LockedOn today to get startedFANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If the Tennessee Titans trade Ryan Tannehill, they must also trade up to the top of the draft and get their quarterback of the future. I'll explain why on today's edition of the Locked On Titans podcast. Let's get it. You are Locked On Titans, your daily Tennessee Titans podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to the Locked on Titans podcast. I am your host, Tyler Rowland.

Titans fans, on today's show, I'm going to tell you why if Ryan Tannehill is traded, the Titans must also trade up to the top of the draft for their quarterback of the future. I'm going to make the case from a bunch of different angles. First, I'm going to cut through all the nonsense and tell you exactly what the financial aspect of a Ryan Tannehill trade looks like. Then we're going to look at what kind of trade return Ryan Tannehill could get the Titans. We're also going to look at the financial situation of the team in 2024 and why all of that together tells you that the Titans must trade up for a quarterback in the draft if they do trade Ryan Tannehill this offseason. Before we get into all of it, I want to let you know that today's episode is brought to

you by FanDuel Sportsbook, the official sportsbook of the NFL. Make every moment more. Visit FanDuel.com slash locked on to get started today. Also, thank you guys for making the Locked on Titans podcast your first listen every day. Remember, Monday through Friday, Tennessee Titans content on all platforms, all year long, and always for free. Make sure you get subscribed. Stay subscribed to the Locked on Titans podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network. It's your team every day.

But diving in here, the first thing that I want to talk about is the financial aspect of a Ryan Tannehill trade. We got those rumors that Tannehill could be a trade candidate for the New York Jets. Maybe not the Jets, but maybe the Carolina Panthers. Maybe not the Panthers, but maybe the Carolina Panthers. Maybe not the Panthers, but maybe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are a bunch of different teams that could be looking for Ryan Tannehill's services. And from the Titans' perspective, if they do that, they have to also trade up for their quarterback of the future in the NFL draft. First, let's dive

into the financials of a Ryan Tannehill trade. There's been some misinformation out there. There's been some confusion out there as well. What I'm going to do is I'm going to use a little bit of a visual aid. And if you're on YouTube, you're going to see it. If not, don't worry. I'm still going to explain everything so you can understand. But what I'm doing is I'm pulling up Ryan Tannehill's contract structure. This comes directly from spottrack.com, a great resource for financial aspects of any professional sport. But what you're going to want to focus on is the 2023 season. Ryan Tannehill has $27 million in base salary. That is his salary for the season, not including any guaranteed money or anything like that, any bonuses, just his his salary for the season, not including any guaranteed money or anything like that, any bonuses, just his base salary for the year is $27 million.

You'll also see that Ryan Tannehill has a $5 million charge for signing bonus money. Next to that, you'll see that Ryan Tannehill has $4.6 million in restructure bonus money. So let me break it down to you guys here. With a signing bonus in the NFL, what happens is you give the player a signing bonus when they sign their contract. For Ryan Tannehill, it was $20 million. What happens is that bonus is paid to the player up front, but it is spread out evenly throughout the years of their contract. So Tannehill got a $20 million signing bonus on a four-year contract originally, that means the signing bonus $20 million is split out $5 million per four seasons. So right now, Tannehill has the $27 million in base salary, the $5 million in signing bonus. And that is the last signing bonus payment the Titans are

responsible for here. Although that money was already paid to Ryan Tannehill. Next to that is the restructure bonus. And if you guys remember, the Titans restructured Ryan Tannehill's contract to fit in Julio Jones when Julio Jones was traded for. So that right there is $4.6 million. So, Ryan Tannehill's restructure also added two void years. You'll see 2024 and 2025. If you're watching on YouTube, there is no base salary.

There is no signing bonus because those are void years that were only added to the contract for restructure purposes. They're not years that are intended to have Ryan Tannehill actually on the team. So, to break it all down here,

if the Jets trade for Ryan Tannehill, they will absorb the $27 million in base salary. The Titans will be responsible for the $5 million signing bonus that's left and the $4.6 million restructure bonus that is for 2023. Now you're thinking in your head, wait, that's only $9 million and some change. But if you continue to look down at 2024 and 2025, there's a restructure bonus of $4.6 million on both those seasons.

So you add in the $5 million in signing bonus, the $4.6 million in restructure bonus for 2023, then a $4.6 million restructure bonus in 2024 and 2025, and that is where you get your $18.8 million in dead cap. So I go over all of this to say to you guys that no matter what happens with a Tannehill trade, the Titans will have to eat 18.8 million dollars of dead money because it's either signing bonus or restructure bonus money that has already been given to Tannehill. The Jets, if Ryan Tannehill had a $20 million bonus in 2024,

the Jets could agree to take that bonus money from the Titans. But since it's bonus money that has already been paid, the Jets can't take money from the Titans that has already been paid. So, keeping it simple here, if the Titans trade Ryan Tannehill to the Jets, they take $27 million of salary. The Titans have to pay in dead cap money the $9 million guaranteed to Tannehill this year

between signing bonus and restructure and then the $9 million remaining in void years $4.6 and then $4.6 and the rest of the restructure bonus. So there is no way for the Titans to not have $18.8 million in dead money

on Ryan Tannehill unless unless and I'll throw this up one more time, unless they trade him or release him after June the 1st, because then the guaranteed money of the restructure bonus and the signing bonus

from this season, 2023, will have already been paid as well. So there you go. It can't be combined anymore to make the 18th. So, it's simple, guys. Regardless of what you heard or how vague tweets are sounding,

if the Titans trade Ryan Tannehill before June the 1st, they're going to have $18 million in dead cap, and they're going to save $17.8 million. It's cut and dry. That simple. Okay? So I wanted to clear the air on that. Even on yesterday's show,

there was a little bit of confusion when I was talking to you guys. The news had just dropped and everybody was kind of looking at what this could really mean. There's the facts. If it was guaranteed money in the future, the Jets could agree to take it from the Titans. But it's guaranteed money that has already been paid out. Therefore, the Jets can't take money that the Titans have already paid.

Got it? We're all clear? $18 million in dead money, $18 million in savings. No matter what happens with Ryan Tannehill, unless it happens after June the 1st, which the Titans and any other team in the NFL aren't going to wait that long to make these kind of decisions. So I wanted to clear that up for you guys,

show you exactly what we're working off of, and show you the exact structure of Tannehill's contract. But now we got to talk about what would the Titans even get in a trade for Ryan Tannehill? And I have a previous trade with a quarterback that could be a little bit of a guide for us. Before we get into it, though, I do want to tell you guys that today's episode is brought to you by Bilt Bar. Bilt Bars are the best tasting protein bars in the galaxy. You get the best of both worlds with Bilt Bar. You

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Now, they're so popular, you can go to your local Sam's Club. You can go to your local Walmart and pick up a box of Built Bars. Now, they're so popular, you can go to your local Sam's Club, you can go to your local Walmart, and pick up a box of Built Bars, as well as going on the site built.com. Head to your local Sam's Club, head to your local Walmart, pick up a 13-bar variety box, and you're going to have something in there that everyone in your household loves. Make sure you guys check out Built Bars, the best tasting protein bars ever today. Titans fans, I know your guys' brains melted as we went through that salary cap structure conversation. Go ahead and pick it back up. Dump it back into the head and make sure we're all good to go to move forward

because we have a lot to break down still. We just talked about the financial aspect of Ryan Tannehill's contract and why despite some confusion last night, everything we know about Tannehill's contract that we said when we talked about cap cuts and things like that is still the case. But I need to move forward here because there are certain other aspects of the Ryan Tannehill trade that lead me to believe that the Titans have to trade up for a quarterback in this year's draft if they trade Ryan Tannehill to another team.

So first, let's talk about the compensation. What would the Titans get in return for Ryan Tannehill? And I know that as I go through this, a lot of you guys are going to be, I don't want to say confused, maybe even upset in disagreement, but you have to take precedent into account. So before we get into that, thank you guys again for making the Locked on Titans podcast your first listen every day, Monday through Friday, Tennessee Titans content on all platforms, all year round, and always for free.

So thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure you throw a thumbs up on the video. The show is free. All I ask for in return is the press of a button. But number one, look at, and shout out to my guy Will Lomas, who made this comparison. Look at the Sam Darnold trade from 2021. Okay, Sam Darnold was traded from the Jets to the Panthers.

Darnold, who is not as good as Ryan Tannehill, is not as productive as Ryan Tannehill, was able to get the Jets a second round pick in 2021, that year that he was traded, and a fourth and a sixth round pick in the next year's draft. So a player who

isn't as good as Ryan Tannehill who's more risky than Ryan Tannehill got three draft picks. A second, a fourth, and a sixth. So to me, even though that Tannehill is older and

there's more growth potential for Sam Darnold, which maybe would make a team pay a little bit more, even though Sam Darnold was younger and Ryan Tannehill is older and there's more growth potential for Sam Darnold, which maybe would make a team pay a little bit more. Even though Sam Darnold was younger and Ryan Tannehill is older, the contract situation is pretty close as well. Sam Darnold was only $5 million in the year that they traded for him, but in the second year that the Panthers had him, he was $19 million. Well, Tannehill is only going to be $27 million for the Jets,

which if you count for inflation, the salary cap is pretty similar amounts. But also, if someone trades for Ryan Tannehill, they're going to restructure his deal and give him an extension and lower that salary cap down to probably around $15-20 million, which means it's going to be nearly the same as Sam Darnold's money. So to me, when you take into account

the give and the take of Darnold being younger with more potential, but Tannehill being a better player and a more accomplished player for a team like the Jets or the Bucs or the Panthers who wants to compete right away. They need to win games or these coaches are going to get fired. Maybe not in Carolina because they just hired Frank Reich, but Robert Sala and the Jets, Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers, these coaches are going to be fired if they don't win football games this year.

So that's why they would go out and be willing to spend on a veteran quarterback. So to me, it's cut and dry. Tannehill is at minimum getting the Titans a second round pick. That's where you start. Number one, we want a second round pick. So a second round pick and then a fourth round pick. And I would want a third, sixth round pick as well.

I know some of you guys are shaking your head right now, but look at the precedent here. Look at what Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan got traded for. The Titans are getting at least two picks from Ryan Tannehill and one of them being a second rounder. Okay? That is going to happen if he's traded.

So, with that in mind, Titans getting two, maybe a third pick for Tannehill, whether it be two this year, one next year, one this year, two next year, what have you. The Titans are going to get a couple of picks back for Tannehill, one of them being a second rounder and the other being some mid-rounders. So, the Titans save $18 million trading Ryan Tannehill. The Titans get additional picks back, probably two or three. And the next layer.

In 2024, 2024 salary cap picture for the Titans is incredible. Okay? All of these players that we're talking about cutting this offseason, Dupree, LeJuan, Tannehill traded, Robert Woods, Zach Cunningham, Randy Bullock, DeMarco Jones, the Titans are going to eat all of the dead money left on their contracts this year, which means all of those players would account for zero dead money next year. The Titans' top two contracts next season, if that all happens, is Harold Landry at $21

million and Kevin Byard at $17 million. Everyone else on the team is below 10 million. Just based on that and with the salary cap going up from $224 million to $235 million, which some people are saying the salary cap may go up to $245 million. It could jump 20 million by next year. With just that right there, the Titans are looking at 130, 140 million dollars in cap space. Now, they're going to give a big deal to Jeffrey Simmons. And that's why I'm not worried about Jeffrey Simmons getting a deal. Because you look at the 2024 cap situation, and the Titans are going to have buku bucks next year. So you give Jeffrey

Simmons a big deal, and he's $20-25 million on the salary cap. Sure. Sure. The Titans signed three or four decently priced free agents, or in-house free agents, this all season. Sign a new left tackle. Sign a wide receiver.

Bring back Nate Davis and David Long. Their money will account to the salary cap next year as well. You'll have two draft classes that will be on your cap this year's class. Next year's class, that'll have to account for it. But even with all of that, the Titans are still looking at $50 to $80 million in cap space next year. So,

if the Titans trade Tannehill, make the cuts that we're talking about. They save $18 million this year. You combine that with the other cuts that we've talked about, and the Titans are looking at $35-38 million in cap space just this offseason. If Tannehill is traded and the names that we've discussed get cut, then

you trade Tannehill for two or three more draft picks and you got $38 million in cap to play with this year, you got multiple more draft picks in the next two drafts, and you know that you're going to have $50 to $80 million in cap space next year. You take all of that knowledge and you trade up

heck to the number one pick and you get your quarterback of the future. I'm going to explain what the Titans would have to give up and tie a bow on my argument for the Titans trading up to number one if they trade Ryan Tannehill. Before we get into my final closing argument here,

do want to tell you guys that today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel, the number one sports book in America. We're so excited about FanDuel and our new partnership with them. They're the official sports book partner of Locked On. They're the number one sports book in America. I already told you they're the official sportsbook partner of Locked On. They're the number one sportsbook in America. I already told you they're the official sportsbook partner of the NFL, but they are also

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in bonus bets when you go to fanduel.com slash locked on. That's fanduel.com slash locked on to learn more, make every moment more with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Titans fans it is time for my closing argument explaining why if the Titans trade Ryan Tannehill they have to have to follow that up with a trade up to the top of the draft and get their quarterback of the future. So let me tie this all together for you guys. We talked about the savings that the Titans would get from Ryan Tannehill. Save $18 million this

year and you're going to get a couple of draft picks back. At least the best one is going to be a second round pick. Probably get a mid-round pick with that. So you save money to get a couple of draft picks back. At least the best one is going to be a second round pick. Probably get a mid-round pick with that. So you save money and get to about $37 million in cap space this year, which allows you to sign a left tackle, allows you to bring back Nate Davis, allows you to bring back David Long, allows you to sign maybe a veteran wide receiver,

maybe bring back Austin Hooper. You're going to have the ability to add some really good players to the Titans roster this offseason with $37 million of cap space. Period. You're going to be able to. So you do that. Then you take the extra picks that you got from a Ryan Tannehill trade

and you use those in combination with your own draft picks to trade up to the top of the draft. Maybe it's pick three. Maybe it's pick one, depending on who the Titans want, where they think those quarterbacks are going to go. But either way, that's the move. And yes, it's going to be expensive. I think that if the Titans traded up to number one, they would have to one, give up pick number 11,

give up their next year's first round pick, give up a second round pick this year as well, number 41, give up a mid round pick next year as well. So I'm thinking number 41, give up a mid-round pick next year as well. So I'm thinking number 11, next year's first, this year's second, this year's fourth, and next year's third. Okay?

And that is a lot. That is expensive. But what I'm saying is the trade-off is worth it. It's completely worth it. If you look at the Titans as a two-year project, not a one at the Titans as a two-year project, not a one-year thing,

a two-year set of circumstances. So, you're still going to have a second round pick because of the pick that you got from the Tannehill trade. You're going to replace your fourth round pick from this year or next year with the Tannehill trade. So, if you trade Tannehill,

the picks that you get back in return will keep your stock good enough that you can make that trade for the number one draft pick. Okay. You're not completely plummeting your draft assets because you're getting a couple of picks back for Tannehill. All right. So there you go. You're not completely ruining your ability to add pieces in the draft. And all of you guys always tell me, the Titans suck in the first round at picking players anyway. What are we even doing with first rounders? But listen, why are you complaining about trading first rounders anyway?

So, to me, it's pretty obvious. Trade Tannehill, get some picks back, so that when you trade up to the top of the draft, it doesn't feel as hurtful because you got some trade assets back in Tannehill. You take the cap space that you saved this all season and add some core pieces to the roster. You walk out of this season with some core pieces on your roster and your quarterback of the future, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud.

Those are my two top guys. And then next season, with the free agent pieces that you've added, the couple of draft picks that you had, including your quarterback of the future, next season, you go into the offseason with all of those pieces and $50 to $80 million in cap space to build the best possible roster you can around your young

quarterback while you're paying him a rookie scale contract. That's it. That's the move. If you're going to trade Ryan Tannehill, you have to, you have to make the trade up for a quarterback in this year's draft. You get, again, $38 million in cap space this year, your quarterback of the future,

plus some late round picks. You get next year's free agent class with a gob of money and next year's draft class. And I think in 2024, you might be able to win a Super Bowl. That's how good the Titans team could be in 2024 if this plan happens. If this is what they do. We know that they were rumored already to be calling Chicago.

We know that they have already been rumored to have conversations with the Jets. It would make incredible sense for the Titans to get $38 million in cap this year and add key pieces, get their quarterback of the future in the draft, have $80 million in salary cap space next year to add a ton of pieces,

and still have some picks in next year's draft year to add a ton of pieces and still have some picks in next year's draft class to add more players that way too. You keep Jeffrey Simmons. You bring back Nate Davis. You bring back David Long. You sign a left tackle of the future. Next year, you add even more in free agency.

I mean, everybody wants to just look at 2023. What do they need to do in 2023? Well, I'm glad that Rand Carthon is not just looking at 2023. This move may make the Titans just as good in 2023 as they were going to be anyways, and way better in 2024 and 2025 than we could ever imagine them being with the way things stand right now. So I know there's a lot of information, a lot of stuff to process, but I wanted to break it all down for you guys. It makes complete sense.

If you see Ryan Tannehill traded before the NFL draft, expect something big coming behind it. You heard it here first. That's going to do it for me today, though, folks. As always, I am your host, Tyler Rowland, and this was Locked on Titans.