Locked On Titans - Daily Podcast On The Tennessee Titans - TITAN-alytics Tuesday - Tannehill's Struggles in Foxboro, Statistical Analysis of Patriots & Titans-Coaster(A Season Review)

Episode Date: December 31, 2019

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Welcome to the Locked on Titans podcast. I'm your host, Tyler Rowland. Titans fans, it is a Titanalytics Tuesday. We are going to have a stat-driven episode here for our first two segments. In our first segment, we are going to talk about an alarming trend that we need to pay attention to in terms of the Tennessee Titans starting quarterback in the game on Sunday. So I'll go over that in our first segment, Clouded in Mystery. And then in our second segment, we are just going to spend some time getting to know our enemy a little bit. We're going to go over some of the major statistics in regards to the New England Patriots, their

offense, their defense. Take a look at a few key numbers that I want to point out to you guys that may have an impact on the game before we really start talking about scheme and our crossover episode and everything like that. Just want to set a nice foundation for you guys, get a real good background on who the Patriots have been as a team this year. In our third segment, just so you guys step off the ledge from all the nerdiness I'm throwing at you, we are just going to take a stroll through the Titans season. I think it'll be a really fun exercise to kind of just go week by week,

kind of relive what our emotions were at that time after that game, talk about every final score from each week, and kind of move our way quickly through the season until we finally arrived here where the second season begins and the playoffs have arrived. I don't know about you guys, but I am still jacked up from the game on Sunday, ready to get into this Titanalytics Tuesday episode with you guys. Let's get it. The Tennessee Titans will go to New England on Saturday night in prime time to face the Patriots in the wildcard round.

The Titans have been hot as ever on offense, led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who's having one of the best seasons any quarterback's ever had when taking over midseason. It's possible he may be the comeback player of the year. But there are some statistical trends, and one in particular to pay attention to, in regards to Ryan Tannehill facing the New England Patriots on the road. For his career, Ryan Tannehill has made six starts in New England. He's 0 for 6 in those starts, and his statistics while playing have been pretty poor as well. He's thrown 233

passes in those six games and only completed 142. That's a completion percentage of 61%. That's a completion percentage of 61%. Not very good. 1,560 yards, that's about 260 yards per game, which isn't bad. That's quite a bit of yards per game, but only 6.7 yards per attempt. That's not very efficient. That's not very effective for your money there. Now, here's where it really gets dangerous. He's only thrown for five touchdowns

and 10 interceptions in those games, a 70 flat passer rating, and has taken 24 sacks in those six games, so about four sacks per game. He's played some of the worst football he's ever played in his career on the road against the Patriots. Now, you got to add some context to that. Of course, he played for the Dolphins during that time. They never had an adequate supporting cast around him. It's safe to argue he didn't always have the best coaching around him as well. So there are a lot of different factors that you could use as excuses for that play. But still, the fact of the matter is that's some very poor football being played no matter what is around you now you compare that to what Tannehill is doing this year with the Titans in the 10 games

that he started he's thrown 286 passes completed 201 of those that's a 70.3 completion percentage that's absolutely fantastic and almost 10 higher than what he was doing in Miami in New England. He has 2,742 yards. Now, he's played in 10 games. That's four more games than the six in New England. But the point there is he's 228 yards per game, about 30 yards less than the other comparison in New England. But here's the kicker, 9.6 yards per attempt. Tannehill actually led the NFL in yards

per attempt. So efficient with each throw. That's how you keep the attempts down, don't take a lot of risk, but still manage to hit big plays. That's been one of the key numbers for Tannehill all season, and it'll continue to be that as he tries to slay this dragon against New England. Now, looking at some of the even bigger statistics, like I mentioned when we were talking about his stats in New England, 22 touchdowns and only six interceptions. That's the key there. Four more games, but four less interceptions.

With the Patriots defense, which we'll talk about in our next segment, they cannot afford to give the ball to the Patriots from Tennessee's perspective. So that'll be key for Tannehill to limit the turnovers. He had a 117.5 passer rating for the season this year. That led the NFL as well. Absolutely incredible. And in his 10 games, he only took 31 sacks. Now, while sacks were definitely an issue for Tennessee the entire season and still

down the stretch, that's still only three sacks per game, a full sack less than he was taking in those games on the road in New England. So that begs the question here, which version of Ryan Tannehill will the Titans get on Sunday in Foxborough? Now it's safe to say that Tannehill is playing much better football and has a much better supporting cast than he has ever had in his career. But that doesn't mean that on the road against New England isn't sort of a ghost of seasons past for Tannehill. He has slayed a lot of dragons this year for his career.

He's flipped the narrative for his career for the time being. the narrative for his career for the time being. One way to really put a stamp on that and kind of cement his place as the comeback player of the year would be to go into New England, take down the best dynasty in possibly NFL history, and slay one more dragon and get his first win on the road starting against the Patriots. Will the Titans get the former version of Ryan Tannehill or will they get the latter? That remains to be seen, but if the Titans want to secure a victory against the Patriots, they most certainly will need the latter in this year's version of Ryan Tannehill. That is going to do it for our first segment. We are going to dive into our second segment and continue this Titanalytics Tuesday and jump into some stats about the New England Patriots

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membership at calm.com slash locked on. Unlock content to help you focus, ease stress, and sleep better. Get started at calm.com slash locked on. That's C-A-L-M dot com slash locked on. Titanalytics Tuesday continues. Let's take a look at some key stats from the Patriots offense and the Patriots defense. As we try to get an idea of the identity of the Patriots, you have to combine multiple things when you're trying to get an idea for who a team is that you don't see very often and that you haven't seen yet. And one key way to do that is to take a look at their statistics. The stats don't lie. They tell you who the team is. Now, you can't rely on statistics as a be-all

end-all. You know what? As a matter of fact, let me give you guys my philosophy in general on analytics in sports. This will be quick, but like I was saying, the statistics and the analytics can only be a piece of the puzzle. You cannot rely solely on data to tell you everything you need to know. You have to be able to combine that with the film, of course, which is something that we're going to take a look at later in the week. So you put these things together, then you get context from someone who knows it intimately. We're going to do that on Wednesday with our Crossover Wednesday podcast with Mike from the Locked On Patriots podcast.

So what we're going to do the next three days, including today, is we're going to get a foundation with the statistics of the Patriots offense and defense. Then on Wednesday, we're going to contextualize things with a conversation with Mike from Locked On Patriots crossover Wednesday. And then on Thursday, we're going to do a little bit of a film breakdown and let the tape tell us the final piece of the story to wrap things out in kind of a three-pronged attack. So let's jump into some of these statistics. Let's start with the Patriots offense led by, my opinion, best quarterback of all time, the GOAT, Tom Brady. He has had some less than stellar moments this season, but when you look at the statistics here, the Patriots are still just about as good as they typically are. They are 7th in the NFL in points per game at 26.2.

That's fantastic. They're scoring top 10 in the league. There's not much you can complain about from an offensive perspective in terms of them scoring points there. 354 yards per game. That's 15th best in the NFL. 247 passing yards per game. That's 8th.

See, a lot of people want to say that Tom Brady is the one who's falling off a little bit. He doesn't have enough weapons. The offensive line isn't pass protecting well enough, but some of the stats just don't match up with the narrative that seems to be a popular one because it sells. The Patriots are top 10 in passing yards. It's the run game that's really suffering for the Patriots this year, which affects their ability to go into play action, which we know all about as Titans fans. They're only averaging 106.4 yards per game on the ground.

That's 18th in the NFL. When you have a talented back like Sonny Michel, a nice role player like Rex Burkhead, a versatile running back like James White, it is surprising that they haven't had as much success on the ground as you would think from the talent that they have and the scheme that they have there. They've only given up 28 sacks on the year,

that seventh best in the NFL. So, you know, you look at the sacks, you look at the passing yard numbers, you look at the scoring, you're like, hmm, everyone is saying that Tom Brady is part of the reason that this Patriots offense hasn't been able to get things together. But it's really the running game that's struggling the most, and the Titans need to pay attention to that. It's just like the Texans here, where the run game is maybe the less pretty part of the offense, but it's actually a crucial

foundation for them, especially in the playoffs. So if the Titans let the struggling running game of the New England Patriots get going like they have been in recent weeks, then it's going to be tough to stop the Patriots in play action. And then the Titans defense that struggles in man coverage already is going to get themselves in the third and short, and they're going to have to go man, and they're going to have a hard time beating, you know, a Patriots cast of guys that isn't super impressive, but neither is the Titans set of cornerbacks right now. Now, where the stats get really interesting here,

the Patriots so far this year are 26th in the NFL in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Only 50% of their red zone opportunities have resulted in a touchdown. That is something where you expect the Patriots to be precise you expect Tom Brady to be accurate and maybe that's where we start to kind of put it together that he's struggling maybe it's red zone but really teams and something that I'm going to mention tomorrow and crossover Wednesday teams are taking away Julian Edelman and they're taking away James White and the Patriots really aren't having anybody else win so that's affecting their ability to score in the red zone likewise on third down and the Patriots really aren't having anybody else win, so that's affecting their

ability to score in the red zone. Likewise, on third down, where the Patriots are usually phenomenal because of those weapons and that familiarity and that comfortability that Tom Brady has with Julian Edelman and James White and what used to be Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are only converting 38% of their third downs right now. That's, like I said, 17th best in the NFL. Now, they don't turn over the ball very much, only nine interceptions and six fumbles on the year. So, those are some key stats for the Patriots offense. And like I said, the things that stand out are the red zone and third down. If you get the Patriots in tough situations where they have to win one-on-one matchups, they aren't really doing that right

now. So that's something that the Titans are going to have to focus on, winning individual matchups on third down and stopping the run so you can put the Patriots in those critical long third down situations. It's going to be crucial. So that kind of gives us an idea. The Patriots don't run the ball as well as they typically do. They're throwing the ball pretty decently though when they get a good matchup. Their red zone third down numbers are down across the board. They're not giving up a lot of sacks and they don't turn over the ball. So that, like I said, gives us a good foundation of what to expect from the Patriots offense. We're going to add context tomorrow and crossover Wednesday. We're going to add some film in our Tic Tac Titans segment on

Thursday. Let's look at the Patriots defense here. This has been the dominant part of the Patriots team this season and while they have regressed just a tiny bit in recent weeks, they are still a fantastic versatile defense. Let's take a look at some of the statistics that can help us build a foundation of knowledge about the Patriots defense. They are number one in points per game allowed 14.1. They are number one in yards per game allowed 275.9. The passing defense has been mostly part of the regression recently due to the injuries the Patriots have been facing and just the physicality of the end of the season, but they've only given up 180.4 yards per game in the air. That's second best in the NFL, and they are sixth best in the NFL, allowing 95.5 rushing yards per game. Think about that. Think about those numbers. Top 10 across the board. First, first, second, sixth.

Titans offense is incredibly explosive, but it second, sixth. The Titans offense is incredibly explosive, but it doesn't matter how explosive your offense is when you're going up against defense like that. The Titans are going to have to be solid and not make any mistakes. They have no margin for error against this defense. Now, one thing that's really concerning, the Patriots defense does get pressure on the quarterback. Let's look at some of those statistics. 47 sacks on the season. That's 8th best for a defense in the NFL. They are pressuring quarterbacks on 23.3% of their dropbacks. That is 8th best in the NFL.

They blitz 33.3% of the time. That's 7th most in the NFL. So, what have the Titans been struggling with? Picking up blitzes, picking up stunts, keeping people off the quarterback. That's been a season-long struggle for the team. They've improved in recent weeks on the offensive line and pass protection, of course, but that's still something that doesn't just go away all of a sudden. It's a struggle for the Titans offense, and the Patriots are going to be prepared, and

I expect them to bring pressure with their talented secondary now. The Titans are going to have to win one-on-one coverage. That's what's going to have to happen here. And when they win that one-on-one coverage, they are going to have to find a way to get yards after the catch. The Titans are one of the best teams in the NFL at getting yards after the catch, breaking tackles from wide receivers and tight ends. But the Patriots defense is very good at limiting that.'s second best in the NFL only to the Minnesota Vikings who have only missed 61 tackles. Just to give you a point of reference, the Titans are 19th in the NFL, so they're not terrible. They're middle of the road and they've missed 104 tackles on the

season. So that's 41 more tackles on the season the Titans have missed than the Patriots. And the Titans aren't even last or bottom 10 in the league. So the Patriots defense is elite there. Where they are most elite is forcing turnovers. 25 interceptions on the season. They have forced 11 fumbles and they forced more than that, but they've recovered 11 of those fumbles. The Patriots are over plus 20 in the turnover margin for the season over their opponents. The Titans have had an issue with early game turnovers in the hot streak. Now they've been able to fight through those and still win ball games, but we saw against the Texans in week 15, they weren't able to come back and overcome that early turnover in a critical spot. The Titans are not going to be able to have turnovers. Like I said earlier, zero margin for

error against this Patriots team that will be solid. They will be well coached. They will have a good game plan. They're not going to shoot themselves in the foot and the Titans cannot do so either. So I hope from that you guys got a good statistical foundation to build our knowledge of our opponent going forward throughout the week. I'm going to move forward now into our third segment and this nerdy version of Titanalytics Tuesday and jump into what is the roller coaster of the Titans regular season. I just want to go week by week, talk about some of the big key points and some of our emotions coming out of every game each week, work our way through the schedule until we get to exactly where we are right now in the wildcard spot. Let's take a ride on the Titans coaster. Ladies and gentlemen, hands and feet inside the moving vehicle at all times.

Let's start clanking our way up the hill by talking about week one, the Titans' miraculous victory over the Cleveland Browns, 43-13. I mean, after that win, we're talking about how real the Titans' defense is, how they can be absolutely dominant. Marcus is back playing complimentary football, being a playmaker out there. Hey, maybe we finally put the weapons around him. Maybe the offensive coaching is finally there. Marcus has his chance. Here we go. And then week two, it came crashing down pretty quickly.

Marcus has his chance. Here we go. And then week two, it came crashing down pretty quickly. We still can't beat the Colts. Losing to Jacoby Brissett at home, 19-17, a missed kick. Never will we beat the Colts again. It felt like terrible. And week three just sent us, you know, continuously in that downward spiral. A loss in the only primetime game of the season to the Jaguars.

And Garner meant you. And Marcus got beat up in that game with a ton of sacks and just missed a ton of throws. Specifically, can remember, missed a quick throw out in the flat to Jonu Smith that was wide open and just completely missed him. And it was like a missed layup, like a botched layup in a game. And it was kind of at that moment where we started to wonder, you know, is Arthur Smith really cut out for this?

And, you know, maybe Marcus just isn't that guy. But then, but then, week four in Atlanta, 24-10, Titans win. Henry rushes for 100 yards. Marcus comes out with over 300 yards. Looks fantastic in that game. Throws a couple touchdown passes to the sideline and some throws that he just wasn't making. He wasn't hesitating. He was getting the ball out of his hand. He was just tossing it all over the place, and it's definitely something that the coaches had talked to him about, but in week five, after a big win to get the Titans back on track in Atlanta,

that same crash back down to reality that Titans fans are used to. A loss at home to the Bills, 14-7, where the Titans just never, ever got the offense going. A second week in a row, or sorry, second week in three games of only seven points. The offense was anemic, and you have to mention four missed field goals. That'll be a theme throughout the season. The next game was really the breaking point of Marcus's career here in Tennessee and the team in general. The Titans go to Denver and lose 16-0. Tannehill came in about three quarters of the way through the third quarter, still wasn't able to get anything going, took two sacks,

wasn't able to put any points on the board. This was the low point of the season. The Titans had dropped to 2-4. We were talking about just a total change in in the organization people wanted to fire mike rabel get rid of arthur smith marcus was a goner for the time being and everyone was kind of looking at the draft hey we might have to look at a qb where the titan's going to be picking is it best if we just tank from here on out then the Tana train took off the Titans win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers the goal line stand and after that game

we were all talking about Jeffrey Simmons what a fantastic game he had a sack was crucial in that goal line stand that whole entire sequence that was talk, but people still didn't feel great about the Titans' prospects at that moment in time. 3-4, some really tough games ahead. At the time, I had mentioned that based on the schedule, there was a chance the Titans could go on a little bit of a run, but it wasn't going to be likely, and you could feel that in the fan base. Well, the next game really gave everyone some hope. The Titans beat the Tampa Bay

Buccaneers 27-23. Winston throws a few picks. Tannehill looks pretty good out there. It wasn't a great game for the Titans, but they were able to pull out a victory, which was something that, you know, kind of felt like wasn't going to happen very often going forward during that Denver game. But then the Titans take another disappointing loss to a Carolina Panthers team, 30-20. Tannehill had two interceptions in that game. Deion Lewis lost a fumble. Just felt like this Titans team wasn't well coached. They were going to shoot themselves in the foot throughout the rest of the season.

And it kind of took the wind out of everyone's sails that the Titans could kind of make a push here. And they dropped to 4-5. But the next game was as high of a high as any game was as low of a low. The Titans come out and the Tana train is in full motion. Beating the Kansas City Chiefs 35-32 with a late game touchdown pass to Adam Humphreys over the middle Tannehill delivered in a clutch spot and it made everyone finally believe and then the fun begins the Titans go out destroy Jacksonville 42-20 and this is kind of the moment where you look AJ Brown 135 yards Derek Henry 159 this team might be for real Derek Henry coming off 188 yards against the Chiefs I mean now we're

talking about Derek Henry being the best running back in the NFL that's when that chatter starts AJ Brown just getting those rookie of the year whispers beginning as he started on his real hot stretch, and it continued. You know, at that moment in time, we beat Jacksonville, and everybody's like, okay, the universe is back where it's supposed to be. The Titans are better than the Jags. That's obvious. But beating the Colts, that's a whole different story.

The Titans go into Indianapolis at the beginning of December and beat the Colts 31-17. Henry runs for 149, and it kind of was that moment where, okay, okay, this team led by Ryan Tannehill might be serious. They are slaying some demons here, beating the Colts in Indianapolis. Then the Titans go to Oakland, and now we realize this offense is one of the best offenses in the NFL. Tannehill throws for 391. Henry goes over 100.

A.J. Brown goes for over 150. That's the first time in Titans franchise history that they'd have a quarterback throw for over 350, a running back rush for over 100, and a wide receiver catch for over 150 yards. 42-21 Titans over the Raiders. Then the tough, tough loss to the Texans. And this is where you start getting those feelings like, man, in the big games, the Titans just can't stop shooting themselves in the foot. That Anthony Ferkser drop, interception, ricochet, whatever you want to call it,

will still linger in my memory long after this version of the Titans is done and changed. Like that's just still an unbelievable play, an unfortunate play, but the Titans are able to overcome despite essentially taking a week off against the Saints and losing 38-28. I feel like every Titans fan felt the same after that game, and the players felt the same. Yeah, the Titans lost, but the Saints are kind of a tier above what kind of team the Titans are at that moment in time. And the Titans come out of that week knowing that they control their own fate and all they have to do is win and they are in. And folks, here we are. A great victory over the Houston Texans JV team, 35-14. The Titans who always come out and let

you down in a big spot actually take care of business and leave no questions about who is the final playoff team in the AFC. So proud of the season. Like I mentioned yesterday, the biggest takeaway and the thing I'm most proud of throughout this regular season is the Titans' ability to fight through adversity. They never turned on each other. They never turned in the locker room. There was no division in the players based on the quarterbacks or the coaches' decision or anything like that. This team stayed together and believed in each other.

And that's something that we can all be proud of as fans that we root for a team that, through thick and thin, always has each other's back. And as fans, we have to do the same and have their back during this very, very tough game in New England, but very high risk going into New England and trying to knock off this dynasty, but very high reward. Imagine how we will feel on Monday, on Sunday, if the Titans are able to secure that victory. So the future is yet to be seen. We will continue to discuss this game at nauseam throughout the week, starting tomorrow with our Crossover Wednesday podcast.

We will have Mike from the Locked on Patriots show on with us to discuss the game. And we're going to do a little bit more of a conversational setup than we typically do I'm going to come in with you guys give you your lead story as I always do in our first segment and then we're just going to have a big conversation with Mike about this game about how we feel about offense defense for both sides and I do want to ask him some questions about just the general feeling in the fan base amongst the Patriots right now with this strange season that showed them kind of regress throughout the back end. So it's going to be a really great conversation.

I can't wait to get to it. Hopefully you enjoyed this Titanalytics Tuesday where we went over Ryan Tannehill's historic struggles in New England. We went over the Patriots from a statistical standpoint on offense and defense to establish a knowledge foundation. And of course, we just went through the Titans coaster that was the regular season. Hopefully you guys enjoyed, excited for the rest of the content going forward throughout

the week. As always, I am your host, Tyler Rowland, and this was Locked on Titans.