Locked On Titans - Daily Podcast On The Tennessee Titans - TITAN-alytics Tuesday - Trench Warfare, Statistical Analysis of the Chiefs & Titans Talk

Episode Date: January 14, 2020

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Welcome to the Locked on Titans podcast. I'm your host, Tyler Rowland. Titans fans, it is a Titanalytics Tuesday. We got a good thing going here. Our three-step game prep plan is in effect for another week. So we are going to set the statistical foundation for the Kansas City Chiefs on offense and defense and throw in a little special teams as well so we can get an understanding of exactly who they are since we did face them in the middle of the season a whole entire second half of the season after that where they were able to improve on defense so we want

to make sure we take that into account before we jump into our statistical analysis of the Kansas City Chiefs we are going to talk about how this playoff run has really been defined, and that's by success in the trenches. A little trench warfare on this Tuesday. We are going to talk about the offensive line, the defensive line, and how they have impacted this run so far. We are going to cap the show off with a little bit of Titans talk. We reveled in the victory yesterday and the emotions

were high, but now we need to turn our focus to the Kansas City Chiefs. So let's hear what head coach Mike Vrabel had to say about getting ready for that matchup. This is the best place to get ready for Sunday's AFC championship game. So let's go ahead and kick off step one of our game prep. Let's get it. On offense, the story is, of course, Derrick Henry. What else could it be? He's breaking records left and right and doing things that we haven't seen done in the NFL in decades. Now, to be able to do those things, you have to have not just a good offensive line, but

a dominant road grading offensive line in the run game. And that's exactly what the Titans offense has got. Of course, there were ups and downs for this offensive line throughout the season. Not having Taylor LeJuan due to a suspension for the first month definitely hurt the ability to gain chemistry for this unit. Having Ben Jones banged up here and there throughout the season. Roger Saffold was banged up at times throughout the season. We also saw Jameel Douglas starting early because Kevin Panfield was hurt at the beginning of the season and Nate Davis was hurt at the beginning of the season. And then of course, even once Nate Davis and Taylor LeJuan were able to insert themselves

in the lineup, it still takes time for an offensive line to gel and coalesce and learn how to work together and how they want to handle different stunts and different situations and different fronts from the defense. But through the back half of the season, it became apparent that that chemistry was building and it has crescendoed here in the playoffs. The Titans offensive line was able to rush for 138.9 yards during the regular season per game. Well, they've kicked that up quite a bit in the playoffs, rushing for 209 yards per game. That's 5.4 yards per carry and the individual stats are backing up what we are seeing. Going

back to the first week of the playoffs against the Patriots, you look at the top five graded offensive players for the Titans per pro football focus, and four of those were offensive linemen. Taylor LeJuan had the top grade at 87.9, Ben Jones at 80.1, Roger Saffold at 78.4, and then Jack Conklin at 76.1. Roger Saffold at 78.4 and then Jack Conklin at 76.2. Four of the five top offensive players graded by Pro Football Focus were the offensive line. That tells you all you really need to know about their performance as well. Moving into the Ravens game, three of the top five offensive Titans graded by Pro Football Focus were on the offensive line. Jack Conklin, 80.

Roger Saffold, a grade of 78.4. Taylor LeJuan, a 77 flat. These are phenomenal grades for offensive linemen, regardless of how you feel about the analytics side of football. These are comparison tools, and the Titans offensive line is dominating. You take a look at the playoffs in general. Taylor LeJuan right now is the top graded blocking tackle in the NFL. Jack Conklin is third on that list in the playoffs. For the playoffs, Roger Saffold, the left guard for the Titans, is the fifth best graded run blocker in all of the playoffs out of all offensive linemen,

not just tackles, guards, center, anything like that. So however you want to slice it, the performance on the field, the eye test, and the available statistics show that this Titans offensive line deserves a lot more praise than they're getting and deserves a lot more credit than they are typically given based on their performance in the last two games. If you look at the defensive side of the football, the combination on the front line of Jeffrey Simmons, Austin Johnson, Daquan Jones, and Jarrell Casey have been relatively fantastic, forcing other teams to abandon the run to their running backs and rush their quarterback, or in the Patriots' case, throw the ball more.

Same with the Ravens. Lamar Jackson threw the ball over 48 times so a fantastic game plan from the Titans defensive line to completely eliminate the run they've only given up 60 yards per game to running backs that's fantastic and you're really forcing other teams to play one-handed not to mention the fourth down stops and the goal line stops that this Titans defense has made while in their heavy personnel a ton of the credit for what the defense has been able to do has to go to the interior defensive linemen who are completely stuffing the run of the other team before we jump into our statistical analysis of the Kansas City Chiefs on offense and defense with a little special teams thrown in I want to play a quick sound bite from Mike Vrabel's press conference today

as a little bit of an appetizer of our third segment, Titans Talk, where he discusses the offensive line and has a pretty funny comment when asked what he thinks about the stellar play of the left side of the offensive line specifically. Well, we can't put any more money over there. I know that. specifically? Well, we can't put any more money over there. I know that. So, um, you know, I think the time that Taylor missed, it's, you know, it was probably, um,

naive of me to think that that could just happen, um, in two days of practice. But I think that there's a comfort level. Um, and with those guys over there. We've talked that the teamwork required to work in combination with a guy next to you, whether that's in the pass game and they're running a stunt or they're running a game or they're a pressure, or the combination in a run game, whether you're on the back side or the front side, to work through a player to another. Those are things that we are going to need to have. And I think Nate's development and Jack's really steady play

and then Ben kind of the glue that holds everybody together. Titans fans let's continue Titanalytics Tuesday and set a statistical foundation for the Chiefs on offense and defense with a little special team sprinkled in as the first step in our three-step game prep that we will continue this week. So let's start with this dynamic Chiefs offense that scored seven touchdowns in a row against the Texans. It was about eight touchdowns in the second half it felt like. So we know how dynamic they are, but let's break down exactly how that manifests itself in the statistics, especially in the regular season. The Chiefs obviously score a ton of points, 28.2 points per game. That's fifth best in the NFL.

As for yards, they're high up there as well, 379.2 yards per game. That's sixth best in the NFL. A large chunk of those coming in the passing game, 281.1 passing yards per game. That's sixth best in the NFL. A large chunk of those coming in the passing game. 281.1 passing yards per game. That's fifth best in the NFL. Now, we will come back to this, but a pain point out of all of these amazing statistics. The Chiefs were only 23rd in the NFL in running the ball. 98.1 yards per game, and we know how important that is in the playoffs. As for sacks, they only gave up 25 sacks on the season. That's fourth best in the NFL in terms of not giving up a lot of sacks.

Their offensive line is doing a good job of keeping people off Mahomes. And he's getting rid of the ball pretty quickly. They have only lost 10 fumbles on the year. That is 19th in the NFL, 19th least. They've only thrown 5 interceptions. That is the second lowest amount in the NFL this year on 3rd downs. They are the best team in the NFL at converting for a first at 47.6% of their third downs being converted. And then in the red zone, another little pain point here out of mostly great statistics is they are only 54% of the time getting a touchdown when they get into the red zone. So speaking of that as a pain point, let's look at really the only two statistics here that give you an area of opportunity if you're the Titans defense. But they are major ones. First, that rushing attack.

Damian Williams not really able to carry the type of rushing attack that you would want. And this Chiefs team relies so heavily on their pass catchers. That it makes sense that they would lack a little bit in the run game. But at less than 100 yards per game. 98.1. The Titans have been fantastic at shutting down the run, at least to the running backs so far in this playoff run. So if they're able to completely eliminate the Chiefs running game,

which they're not very good at anyways, well, then the Titans can really focus in on the passing game. And the way that you really help yourself out there is you can play man in the red zone. And that's why the Chiefs are struggling in the red zone. the 20th best team in the NFL like I said 54% conversion rate turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns that means that they're not finding all the gaps in spaces and freedom that they typically would get on your you know regular average down between the 20s there's a lot of field out there for them to use their speed.

A lot of their team is built on speed. Kelsey is a big guy, but he's a fast tight end. I don't need to tell you about Tyreek Hill and his speed, Sammy Watkins and his speed, Damian Williams. And then you look at somebody like Nicole Hardman. Speaking of Nicole Hardman, he is the AFC Pro Bowl Returner of the Year, and you can see why. The Chiefs are the third best team in the NFL in average yards per punt return at 6.9, and they are the fifth best team in the NFL on kickoff returns, getting 25.1 yards per game. So you have to limit

their field position there. You can't allow them to have big returns, and then on offense, you've got to stop the running game completely so you can get them to third and long. And obviously they're going to get their yards between the 20s. But once they get to the red zone, something the Titans have been excellent at here in the postseason, they are having trouble scoring because there's not as much open field for them to use that speed. You really need size and strength in the red zone. And that is somewhere where the Chiefs lack, anywhere outside of Travis Kelsey. So that's something that I'm sure the Titans coaches will be keying on just based on the statistics that you see here. Talking about the Kansas City Chiefs on defense, obviously the lesser of the two units that they have as a ball club,

but this defense really improved after that Titans game and were able to kind of change the narrative around themselves through the back half of the season. This team doesn't turn over the ball, as I mentioned, on the offensive side, but they are a plus eight overall in turnover margin. That's the seventh best in the NFL because their defense will take it away as well. They've had 16 interceptions this year on defense. That's fifth best in the NFL, and they've gotten seven fumble recoveries.

That's only 23rd best in the NFL, but when you're intercepting at that rate, it helps you take away the ball with how often teams are passing in the NFL. Some of the raw statistics here. One of the best scoring defenses in the NFL, seventh best actually, only give it up 19.2 points per game. Yards they are giving up quite a bit. 349.6. 17th best in the NFL.

And most of that is coming in the running game. Where they are giving up 128.2 yards per game. That is 28th in the NFL. Where the passing defense is decent. 221.4 yards per game given up in the passing game. But when you're giving up that much on the ground, it makes it difficult to be consistent on defense. They will get after the passer, though.

45 sacks on the year. That's 11th best in the NFL. They don't blitz an incredible amount. Their league average there, 15th most at 29.1% of the time they are blitzing, getting pressure on 22.2% of snaps. That's only 20th best in the NFL. So they have their moments where they get pressure on the quarterback, but it's not something that's incredibly consistent. Now, when you have someone like Frank Clark get three sacks in a game like he did against the Texans, well, obviously, that's going to boost numbers.

But the Texans' offensive line, as we know, is not great. So, you've got to hope that the Titans' offensive line that we talked about in the first segment will be able to kind of hamper that Kansas City Chiefs' pass rush. One thing I do want to point out is this defense struggles with missing tackles and giving up yards after the catch. They missed 101 tackles on the year. They've given up 1,851 yards after catch so far as well. So those are places where you can take advantage of this Chiefs defense. Get the ball to your playmaker short like the Titans like to do anyway and have them break tackles and get down the field. They've given up a conversion on third down 37.1% of the time. That's 21st in the NFL, so a nice area of opportunity there for the Titans. In the red zone, they're actually pretty decent. The 10th best team in the red zone in terms of defense, giving up a touchdown on only

50.9% of their red zone opportunities. But the areas of opportunity there for the Titans are the Kansas City Chiefs third down conversion rate that we just spoke about at 37.1% and the amount of rushing yards they are giving up per game, 128.2. Put those two together. The Chiefs are giving up a lot of ground in the ground game, and that is leaving their defense with a lot of third and shorts, so teams are converting at a 37% rate. As a Titans fan, that has to excite you, of course. The Titans run the ball so well, and Derrick Henry is so transcendent that you would think, based on his 188-yard performance from earlier in the regular season that he would be able to duplicate that again especially with the hot streak that he's on so it kind of plays

directly into the Titans hands that the Chiefs can't stop the run they can't stop people from converting on third downs and now they are without one of their best safeties Juan Thornhill which puts someone like Daniel Sorensen out on the field, who you should be able to take advantage of in man coverage on third downs with Jonu Smith or with Anthony Ferkser, players like that. So a lot of these statistics are daunting from the Titans' perspective, looking at this Chiefs offense and some of the things they've been able to do on defense, especially in the back half of the year. The points that they've allowed is pretty solid, but there are a few key areas just based on the numbers alone

where the Titans really could have an advantage, and I'm certain that the coaching staff will take advantage of those. That will wrap up our statistical analysis of the Chiefs on offense, defense, and a little special teams there. Like I said, this is step one of our three-step game prep process to get ready for the AFC Championship game on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. So stay locked in to the Locked On Titans podcast as we keep going throughout the week.

Now we are going to jump into a little bit of Titans talk here from head coach Mike Vrabel and what he has to say about getting ready for this matchup. To get fit in 2020, you don't have to join a gym or pay a ton for overpriced fitness equipment. The best way to get in the best shape of your life is with Echelon. Go to echelonfit.com to discover their X1 connected fitness bikes that offer a high quality at-home cycling experience that's less than half the price of a Peloton. I've had some injuries in my life. It's hard for me to run outside. I don't lift weights well due to those. I use exercise

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Echelon, it's your time. That's E-C-H-E-L-O-N, fit.com slash L-O-N-F-L. Echelonfit.com slash L-O-N-F-L. Let's hear a little Titans talk and hear Mike Vrabel's day after press conference to get an idea of how he's game planning for the Chiefs. Audio is courtesy of titansonline.com. I mean, I try to do that. I mean, I tell the team, like the coaches, we're going to need our best efforts every week to game plan,

to give them a plan that they understand, that they're confident in and they have trust in. We have to improve each and every game and how we go out there. And, you know, what's new? You know, you always write down questions, at least I do, and I know that the staff does, is what's the game plan run? What's the game plan pressure? What's the punt rush of the week?

What are the – and so now our players, we have to be able to say, hey, here's what it is. They are copycatting, you know, something that somebody did a few weeks ago. Or this is the pressure. This is the front that we're going to see that's new so that our players after the first series can understand, hey, this is the game plan that they've worked on all week.

And you're going to see similar plays off of, you know, formations that we haven't seen from this team in a while. So as far as my improvement, I just try to, you know, come in every day and do things to help the team win and be prepared. They're very good defensively. They're playing very hard. I think the scheme is always what it is, but the players are playing hard. They believe in each other.

I noticed as you watch their effort to the football and the way that they chase and the way that they tackle. Those are great compliments to Spaggs and his staff and obviously Andy as the head coach. They're explosive on offense. They're

athletic. They're fast. It'll be a huge challenge. They have, they have roles and they have guys that they like to do certain things. You know, I think the thing that I appreciate the most about watching Andy and their offensive players is that I know what the diagram in the book looks like. And a lot of those routes and plays don't really look like those diagrams. They, you know, Travis, for example, he's put the personal touch on a lot of routes. I would say every route that he runs, you know, there's going to be something to it that probably looks a little different than most tight ends.

You know, Tyreek Hill, obviously the speed and the explosiveness. They have plays that they like for Sammy. And Patrick does an amazing job of getting everybody involved and using the weapons and his ability to get out of the pocket and extend plays. That was a big factor in the game the other day, his ability to gain yards and chunk yardage outside the pocket. Each and every week is different.

So I think that the ability to hit big plays, the ability to score in the red zone, the ability to run the football, to not turn the ball over. Those are all critical things. And so we'll have to go in with a balanced plan and then see how the game is being played and how it's going and do everything that we have to do to try to win it based on our plan and how it looks.

And if it's working, then we'll have to obviously stick with what it is. And then if it's not, we'll have to make adjustments. Yeah, I think there were times, certainly, where that happened. Early in the, I think it was our second drive, I think we ran a zone play and probably gained eight or nine or ten yards. And, you know, Derek's fallen forward for the last two or three yards. That's the push that when you see that early in the game when both teams are, I guess, as close to fresh as you can be,

those are positive signs. David, I think when I said after the game it didn't feel like it was too big for him. It didn't look that way. Um, watching it on tape, you know, he's not a big player. He played, I think, aggressive. I think he played physical. I think he triggered.

Um, I mean, he made a fantastic play on a fourth and one play, um, to be able to, to get through the little, uh, you the little rabbit hole and find the court. Basically, he mirrored the quarterback. He mirrored Lamar and was able to get through and come up with a huge stop. Again, there's things the world need to coach him on. And then moving on to Jayon. We don't practice here for a few days. We'll meet today. But we'll see how he progresses.

We don't have to because I already knew what it was going to be when we left for Houston, that as long as you keep winning, there's not a seventh seed for us to host. So we were going to be on the road. And I guess that was a nice way to put it when we you know because it really our our playoff started when we left for houston just the way that the situation presented itself that if you go on the road and you win you're going to go on the road and play another team and if you win you're going to go on the road and you know that's kind of the

it was an easy path they didn't have to worry about if we were going to be home or anything else. Yeah, it's – you've been out there as a player and you've seen it. You know, there's plays that happen and there are only five or six of them that happen during the game that you're going to need. And, you know, the message is just because you give up a play, you're still playing. You know, just because, the message is just because you give up a play, you're still playing, you know, just because they got the ball on the 30-yard line doesn't guarantee them a touchdown.

But there can't be any panic. There can't be any flinch. That's when you need your leaders and your coaches to get everybody to kind of take a deep breath and figure out that at that point in time, you don't need any cheerleaders. You need players and coaches that can get players a call, and then players can go out there and execute and not have any panic.

We are going to be back tomorrow for step two in our three-step game prep process when we add context to the numbers that we discussed today in our crossover conversation with Chris from the Locked on Chiefs podcast. So I know you guys will be looking forward to that. Make sure that you are subscribed to the show. Make sure that you follow me on Twitter at TicTacTitans for more. And as we approach our film breakdown on Thursday, as always, I am your on Thursday, as always,

I am your host, Tyler Rowland, and this was locked on Titans.