Locked On Titans - Daily Podcast On The Tennessee Titans - Will Titans Get Compensatory Picks & Update on #JJWATTCH2021

Episode Date: February 25, 2021

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You are Locked On Titans, your daily Tennessee Titans podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to the Locked On Titans podcast. I am your host, Tyler Rowland, Titans fans. It is a Thursday edition of the Locked On Titans podcast. And today we have another installment in JJ Watch 2021. That's right, we got another pretty interesting report and rather positive report from a Titans perspective on Wednesday.

So we are going to discuss that report to start off today's show and talk about everything that is involved with what that report let us in on information wise. And then after that that we also got a pretty interesting projection of course you guys know and I've talked a lot about compensatory draft picks now that's something that the Titans teams of previous iterations never even sniffed but the John Robinson era Tennessee Titans are starting to see some compensatory options roll in here. So what I want to do today, we don't know what the compensatory picks are just yet.

That won't happen until long after free agency, but I do want to discuss what compensatory picks exactly are and the potential that the Tennessee Titans have this offseason to end up with quite a few of them. So we're going to go over someone's projection of that. And also based on that conversation, it's unavoidable that you have to talk about free agency within the realm of compensatory picks as they are inherently linked. So we are going to talk about JJ Watt up front, then dive into some compensatory pick conversation. And that JJ Watt up front, then dive into some compensatory pick conversation, and that JJ Watt conversation could factor in directly into the compensatory formula.

So excited to kind of tie everything neatly together on a Thursday edition of the Locked On Titans podcast. Let's get it! Now, as I'm sure you guys have realized by now, I think I'm pretty clever. So, in my mind, rather than Clowny Watch 2020, this year we have JJ Watch, W-A-T-T-C-H, 2021. And we got a pretty big report on that front on Wednesday. And it came from John Clayton. Obviously, fantastic commercials during his time with ESPN. That's what a lot of you guys will remember John Clayton from.

But this report, this report was pretty interesting. John Clayton did report that J.J. Watt will not, will not be considering the Pittsburgh Steelers, which makes sense, as I said, when we talked about these options a couple weeks ago, Pittsburgh is just in cap hell, and while I admit that the salary cap is more of a guideline than a firm actual salary cap. There is still a reality of the cap. You can't take a team who's $40 million behind the cap or $30 million behind the cap, and all of a sudden they have $30 million in cap space. I mean, it's guidelines, and things are fungible, and teams can get creative,

but the salary cap does still exist. So I don't think Pittsburgh is going to have a chance to give J.J. Watt the type of money that he will want to command. I don't think he's going to want to break the bank, but he certainly isn't going to play for a vet minimum or the type of contract he would have to get from Pittsburgh. So brotherly love is great, but you don't play football for free if you're J.J. Watt. And that's why John Clayton's second portion of the report is more interesting. And it says here, Tennessee, Green Bay, and Buffalo are the three teams, Raiders as a dark horse. While the Raiders don't have as good of a quarterback as those three teams, the Raiders are nowhere near the type of team that Tennessee, Green Bay, and Buffalo are.

So call that a dark horse if you want. I'm calling it a dead horse. So Tennessee, Green Bay, and Buffalo are J.J. Watt dark horse if you want. I'm calling it a dead horse. So Tennessee, Green Bay, and Buffalo are J.J. Watt's narrowed down list. Guys, we have made it. We have survived in advance through the J.J. Watt tournament. Now, let's discuss. For the Titans, as I mentioned before, the Vrabel connection. Get to go against the Texans two times a year. The division is rather weak right now, so that increases the likelihood the Titans can repeat as division champs. And if you can win your division, you have a chance at the Super Bowl. There's no way around that. So a Super Bowl chance is there for the Titans. No state tax in Tennessee. Amy Adams

Strunk has a strong relationship with J.J. Watt due to donating a million dollars to his hurricane relief fund a few years ago when Houston was devastated by the hurricane. Also, as I just said, the Mike Vrabel connection, Jadavion Clowney could be back, and those two have a pretty good relationship as well. So everything is in place along with the Tennessee Titans offense. Everything is in place for J.J. Watt in Tennessee. The only issue is the other two teams that the Titans will be battling it out for they basically have the same thing. The only thing they don't have is the no state taxes, the head coach connection, and the relationship with the Titans

owner. They don't have those but they have their own things. Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers are better quarterbacks than Ryan Tannehill right now as things sit. The Buffalo Bills and the Green Bay Packers went further than the Tennessee Titans in the playoffs. So those are big advantages that Buffalo and Green Bay do have. And then, of course, Green Bay has the even more of a kicker. They have Aaron Rodgers. That's a totally different level than even Josh Allen. And J.J. Watt is from Wisconsin.

So, I mean, there's a lot of factors in here, but it's good to see that the Titans have made it to the top three, even if Watt doesn't come. The Titans got Jadavion Clowney last year. They're in the final three for J.J. Watt this year. Guys, it feels like a change in the air. The Titans aren't viewed as one of those also-ran franchise. The Titans are considered one of the better, more well-run franchises in the NFL. And that is only a good thing for the Titans. The Titans are starting to get more national buzz. The Titans have more conversation about them around the NFL, around the media sphere.

The Titans are getting more love from players around the NFL. And another way to show this, one more thing. Earlier today, a fan, shout out to you, James Lewis on Twitter, put a picture of Mike Vrabel, John Robinson, and Bud Dupree on Twitter. And he tagged Justin Martin and Ramon Foster. I know they have a radio show locally. He tagged, James tagged those guys with that picture. he tagged, James tagged those guys with that picture. Then Ramone Foster tagged Bud Dupree and said, laugh out loud, hey, Bud Dupree, they want you here to be loved. And Bud Dupree replied, LOL, I emoji, I emoji, I emoji. Now, I know everybody's going to get excited about that

because that's a common Twitter thing, but Bud Dupree's just having some fun. Nothing about three eye emojis and an LOL tells you anything about his free agency wish list or destination or anything like that, but certainly if the Titans are willing to put the money on the table, he will consider Tennessee. It makes sense that he would do so, but you know, the momentum changing, the Titans atmosphere, the way the Titans are perceived is changing around the NFL. And that's a big deal along with the real chase of J.J. Watt or a Bud Dupree level player. So I wanted to talk to you guys about that news to start off today's show. We are going to move into a conversation about compensatory draft picks, what they are, how

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and write locked on in the how did you hear about us box right underneath your shipping information so they know that we sent you. Amazing selection, reliably low prices, all the parts your car will ever need, rockauto.com. Let's have a conversation about compensatory draft picks. Some of the better organizations in the NFL over the last 10 to 20 years consistently get a number of compensatory draft picks. What I think is a flawed system. I don't think the compensatory draft picks should be a thing, but they are a thing and it helps good teams stay good by giving them more swings at the bat. So what the heck is a compensatory draft pick? Now I know a lot of you guys listening to the show may know, but some of you listening to the show may not have an understanding of that.

So I'll quickly go through it. Compensatory draft picks are exactly as they sound. They are a draft pick that is compensating a team. Now, what are they compensating the team for? They are compensating you for losing a free agent. Now, this is where my philosophical differences with this rule come in. If a team, like let's say the Titans let Corey Davis walk to another team this year, and he gets signed for $15 million a year. That's probably going to get the Titans a third round compensatory draft pick,

just for this example. Why should the Tennessee Titans be rewarded for letting one of their better players walk in free agency? It doesn't even make any sense. I mean, if it benefits the Titans, everybody's going to shout at me and say, oh, we love compensatory draft picks. And it's on the way to helping the Titans quite a bit. But the reality is teams should not be rewarded for not paying their best players.

It's just dumb. It doesn't make any sense. But whatever. I could throw a fit all day about the rule, but the rule is the rule and it's not changing anytime soon. So let me give you an idea of how this works. Compensatory draft picks, whether you get a... So compensatory draft picks are never going to be in the first or second round.

The highest compensatory draft pick you can get is in the third round. And it's going to come after the first 32 teams pick, the actual third round picks. So in the third round, the fourth round, the fifth round, there are more than 32 draft picks per round because the compensatory picks get added at the end of the round. So you either get a third round pick all the way down to a seventh round pick depending on how much the player made and what players you signed. So I think last year's Tennessee Titans situation will give you a great idea of how it works.

So Jack Conklin, Jack Conklin left the Tennessee Titans as a free agent and he signed with the Cleveland Browns for, I believe, $14 to $16 million, somewhere in there. That is on the high end of contracts in the entire NFL so that's one of the bigger contracts that was signed that is going to be valued as a third round pick now the Titans also saw quarterback Marcus Mariota go to the Oakland Raiders for $7 million. A $7 million contract would translate to a fifth round compensatory pick.

So, in theory, based on losing Conklin and losing Marcus, the Titans would have an extra third and fifth round pick this draft. Remember, it happened last offseason. So you can't have that pick for last offseason's draft. It's a year behind. So last offseason's free agency gives you compensatory picks for 2021. And this offseason that's about to take place will give the Titans compensatory picks for next year's draft. So that's how that works.

So last year's example, Conklin leaves for a top tier contract. That's a third round pick. Marcus leaves for a mid-tier contract. That's a fifth round pick. But the Tennessee Titans signed Vic Beasley to a mid-tier contract at about $9 million guaranteed. So Marcus and Beasley's contracts cancel each other out, so the Titans won't get a third and a fifth because Marcus left, but Beasley came, and the money is similar, so they cancel each other out. That leaves the Titans with just losing Jack Conklin,

which will result in a third-round pick. So the Titans should get an extra third round pick this year. And that's why earlier this week on Twitter, I said I think it is a trade up year for the Tennessee Titans. They have multiple sixth round picks. They have multiple third round picks. I think that gives them the ammo they need for John Robinson to go up and get a few targeted players.

But that's a conversation for a different time in the future. Now, when you spin that conversation forward, though, and you start to think about this offseason for the Titans, the potential for the Titans to get a ton of compensatory draft picks is higher than it was last year. I mean, Marcus and Conklin were the only free agents that left the Titans of substantial money value that would result in a compensatory draft pick. You're not going to have somebody leave your team. Like, perfect example, Austin Johnson.

Austin Johnson left. I think he signed a deal anywhere between a million to two and a half million dollars. That's not a high enough contract to even calculate into the compensatory formula. And also, also, I do want to mention, I know a lot of you guys are thinking right now, but wait, we signed Jadavion Clowney for $12 million. Why didn't that cancel out Jack Conklin? Well, the Titans signed Clowney so late in the process that it didn't count towards the compensatory formula.

There is a cutoff of where if you sign a guy after a certain date, their money won't count into the formula. So the Titans signing Clowney late in the season, I think it hurt his production on the field. It hurt his ability to be ready for the season. But it definitely did help them get a compensatory pick because if they would have signed Jadavion Clowney in regular free agency time,

it would have canceled out the Titans' complete compensatory formula. Marcus is canceled out by Beasley. Conklin is canceled out by Clowney. And now the Titans don't get a compensatory draft pick at all. So I'm not really that mad about it. So that's kind of how it worked. And the Titans this year, you know, they have Desmond King, Jadavion Clowney, Jayon Brown, Jonu Smith, Corey Davis, Daquan Jones. I mean, there are a ton of options that could give the Titans a ton of different compensatory picks depending on how much they get paid, who the Titans sign. But we're going to dive into that a little bit more in our next segment.

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Nick Cordy works on the compensatory pick project for Over the Cap. He comments on NFL contracts, does a lot of work on Twitter, so it'd be worthy to follow his account. Once again, that's Nick Cordy. Nick, as regular as you would spell it, K-O-R-T-E. But he did a huge thread on Twitter going over what the compensatory pick formula would look like based on a pro football focus article that projected free agent landing spots. So we're going to talk about the pro football focus projected

landing spots for Titans players and players that were projected to the Titans. And then talk about if that were to play out, what the compensatory pick formula would look like for the Titans. So number one, they did, I think it was like 150 top free agents. I'm going to go down the list in order. Number one, and this was confusing to me, they had the highest graded Tennessee Titans free agent as cornerback Desmond King. And they have Desmond King coming back to the Titans on a three-year, $17.5 million deal.

So about $5.75 million a year. I actually would support that move I think that's right in the price range that the Titans should consider bringing back Desmond King to not leave themselves in a bad spot where they're really if you got to get rid of one of Malcolm and Adoree you don't want to lose Desmond King too and at that price five million dollars six million dollars it's hard to turn down a guy who can really help out the defense but with him going to the titans re-signing that would not help the titans get a compensatory draft pick but it also doesn't hurt the titans getting a compensatory draft pick because he's not an outside free agent he's just being re-signed when he was already on the team so it doesn't help or hurt the titans

and i would support that cap number next they have they have Corey Davis at number 25 and they have Corey signing for a four-year $65 million deal. So that's about $16.25 million a season and they have Corey signing with the Washington football team. I think that'd be a good fit for Corey. He'd get his targets. He'd have a still another good wide receiver in Terry McLaurin, but that sort of contract is like Jack Conklin last year. That would be a third round compensatory draft pick for the Tennessee Titans, at least to start off the formula. We don't know what's going to happen with signings, so that would at least start off the Titans with a third round compensatory pick in 2022. Next, they have number 31, Jadavion Clowney. They have the Titans re-signing Clowney.

I'm clapping. But they have it for one year, $13 million. Jadavian Clowney sure as hell ain't getting more guaranteed money this year than he got last year from the Titans. We'll cut that in half, call it six and a half, $7 million. I would even go as far as to say $8 million, but any more than $8 million for Clowney, and I'm out. But again, the Titans would be re-signing Jadavian Clowney, so it doesn't hurt the compensatory pick with Corey Davis. We're still at a third-round pick. Next, Jonu Smith, number 32, right behind Clowney.

They have him signing a four-year, $38 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars. That's about $9.5 million a season. And as I told you, with Vic Beasley being at $9 million, Marcus being at about $7 million, a $9.5 million contract would be a fifth-round compensatory pick. So right now, the Titans are at a third-round pick and a fifth-round compensatory pick if the projections turn out to be correct.

Next, the Titans have 54 Jayon Brown, number 54 on the list, and the Titans actually re-signed Jayon Brown in this projection four years, $47.5 million. There is no way that the Titans are paying Jayon Brown over $11 million a year. No way.

No way. I would pay $8 million a year, maybe $8.5 million, but that is it. That is it. And with Jayon Brown's recent comments about how much he wants to be back in Tennessee, there is no reason that the Titans should be paying him over $11 million. Jayon is just not worth that that guys. He's a role player. He's a pass coverage linebacker. He has improved to the point where he can play every down and he is certainly vital to the Titans on defense but not for that type of money. That's just asinine to me. So I don't see that happening but let's just continue with the exercise here. But again, that would not hurt the Titans because they are re-signing Jayon Brown, not signing an outside free agent, so still a third and a fifth round compensatory pick.

Now here's where things get interesting. At 102 on the list, Pro Football Focus has the Titans signing wide receiver Rashad Hollywood-Higgins from the Cleveland Browns for a two-year $10 million deal. Guys, I have been talking about this when we did our free agency preview about the wide receiver group. I told you that I would rather let Corey Davis walk at $16 million, if that's the projection they got, and sign somebody like Rashad Higgins for $5 million. And then we can draft a Kadarius Toney, a Rondale Moore, a Dwayne Eskridge, a young rookie slot receiver in the second or third round.

That's what I would want the Titans to do. This is exactly it. This is exactly it. And Higgins is the type of guy I've talked about before. Solid production when he's been on the field. He's 6'3". He's got speed. He can be a boundary receiver. He can go up and make been on the field. He's 6'3". He's got speed. He can be a boundary receiver.

He can go up and make plays on the ball. And in the Titans offense, I don't really think that, let's say he gets 600, 700 receiving yards instead of the 900 that Corey Davis got. I don't think that adversely affects the Titans offense because the reality is A.J. Brown needs more targets. A.J. Brown needs more touches.

Get that man the ball. Much, much more than before. So I love, I love that projection. $5 million instead of $16 million for the number two receiver and about 80% to 75% of the production. Sign me the F up. That, ooh, ooh, God, that gets me excited. I sure hope, and it doesn't have to be Higgins,

but someone in that range is exactly what I'm looking for Buffalo please please release Sean Smokey Brown please please Brandon Bean please Sean McDermott okay okay moving forward the last name that we have to talk about here is number 143 and it is Daquan Jones. Two years, $14 million. I mean, Daquan made about $7 million last year, so this is pretty much exactly the same. But the reality is PFF didn't even mention what team he would be signing with.

It wasn't the Titans, though. They didn't have him coming back, but it was just a typo in their article. They didn't say where he was going, but either way they have Daquan leaving for two years, $14 million. That right there at $7 million, what was Marcus worth at $7 million guys? A fifth round pick. So Daquan Jones at $7 million would be worth a fifth round pick. So let's go through. Desmond King, re-signed to the Titans, doesn't affect the formula. Corey Davis leaves the Titans for $16 million a year. That does affect the formula. That'd be the top you could get.

That's a third round pick. Jadavion Crowney re-signs with the Titans. That does not affect the formula. Jonu Smith signs with the Jags for $9.5 million a year. That does not affect the formula. Jonu Smith signs with the Jags for $9.5 million a year. That is a fifth round pick. So a third and a fifth now. Jayon Brown re-signs with the Titans.

That does not affect the formula because it's re-signing. Rashad Higgins signs. Two years. $10 million. That right there would be underneath the compensatory formula. So right there, that would really help the Titans out if they set the cutoff, because the NFL sets the cutoff based on the salary cap when they do the formula.

So it would help the Titans if Rashad Higgins did in fact come in underneath that line, which is what PFF has projected here. So you got King leaving. That's a third round pick. Or sorry, you got Corey leaving. Third round pick. Jonu leaving. That's a fifth round pick.

Then you have Daquan Jones leaving. $7 million. That's a fifth round pick. Then you have Daquan Jones leaving. $7 million. That's a fifth round pick. So right now the Titans have a third, a fifth, and a fifth. And if Higgins does come in under, well now we're talking about the Titans getting three extra draft picks in the 2020 NFL draft. And that's how the Baltimore Ravens, that's how the New England Patriots, that's how a lot of the Green Bay Packers, that's how these teams have stayed good for so long. Because they stack the deck every single draft and have 9-10 picks. And it's not just about getting 9-10 players.

That gives you ammo to move up and down the draft board to get the guys that you think fit best in your system. You don't have to wait for people to come to you. That is just incredible. Going into a gunfight and you got six more bullets than the other guy? I mean, I don't got to say anymore. What an advantage. And the Titans, see this coincides with the J.J. Watt conversation because if the Titans

do sign J.J. Watt, you can pretty much say goodbye to that third round compensatory pick for Corey Davis. I don't know what Watt's going to get signed to, but I would imagine it would be enough to knock out that third round pick and cancel out Corey. So that's something to watch going forward. But wanted to have that conversation. Awesome article from Pro Football Focus. Great job by Nick Cordy.

So wanted to make sure that I went over that with you guys so you understood completely what the compensatory picks are, how it works, and what the Titans could be looking at going forward. So I hope you found this incredibly informative, but that's going to do it for me today, folks. As always, I am your host, Tyler Rowland, and this was Locked on Titans. you