LPRC - CrimeScience – COVID-19 Series: Episode 10 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D’onofrio, and Tom Meehan

Episode Date: June 11, 2020

In this LPRC CrimeScience COVID-19 Series episode, Read Hayes, Tom Meehan, and Tony D’onofrio discuss LPRC initiatives, fake donation pages, coupon scams, social media monitoring, product return data, return fraud, cashless transactions, and much more. The post CrimeScience – COVID-19 Series: Episode 10 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D’onofrio, and Tom Meehan appeared first on Loss Prevention Research Council.

Hi everyone, welcome to Crime Science. In this podcast, we aim to explore the science of crime and the practical application of the science for loss prevention and asset protection practitioners, as well as other professionals. We would like to thank Bosch for making this episode possible. Use Bosch Camera's onboard intelligent video analytics to quickly locate important recorded incidents or events. Bosch's forensic search saves you time and money by searching through hours or days of

video within minutes to find and collect video evidence. Learn more about intelligent video analytics from Bosch in zones one through four of LPRC's zones of influence by visiting Bosch online at BoschSecurity.com. Welcome, everybody, to another Crime Science the Podcast episode. This and our special COVID-19 series. COVID-19 series. I'm joined by Tony D'Onofrio and by Tom Meehan today and our producer Kevin Tran from the LPRC. And some of us are broadcasting here from Gainesville, Florida. So rainy Gainesville, Florida. Rainsville. So what we're going to be doing is updating. We'll go quickly through the format. Obviously, in addition to in this period of time, here we are, June 9th, 2020. We're not only in the midst of quarantines and dealing with the pandemic called COVID-19 by many, but of course, we've had some widespread, what started as

peaceful demonstrations that have been hijacked in many, many places by outsiders, by crime crews, by far left or maybe even far right groups. We're not all sure the intel's still coming in. And then local actors that have resulted in extensive and really horrific damage, burning, looting, defacing, destroying, running forklifts through areas and all kind of damage. It's resulted in citizens, law enforcement officers being shot and injured and people even killed. and injured and people even killed. So we've got a lot on our plate. And I think all of us know, and nobody more than here at the LPRC, in dealing with our almost 70 retail chains that we help support through research and development, that retail seems to very often take the brunt of so much. And whether it's the small, locally owned, people of color, or otherwise businesses where their dreams are destroyed by these rioters, by these looters, by these attackers, but also the retail chains and their locations. Some of our chains have as many as two dozen of their locations that are out of commission, some maybe permanently.

two dozen of their locations that are out of commission, some maybe permanently. A large concern we've got is that while we're trying to recover and reestablish some sense of normality based on the spread of the virus, but that many of the businesses are not going to be able to reopen or for a while, and particularly in areas that most need local businesses to operate and support them. So what we've got right now, again, at the LPRC is our COVID-19 landing page that Kevin, Tran, and Diego on our team support, and we try and update that daily and weekly so that there are these new credible links and other availability there for resources that you might need. We've also stood up, Kevin and team, a riot and looting landing page.

Both can be found at lpresearch.org. That too, we're trying to keep that up to date with any useful reports, hence ideas, links to support the retailers as they go through this latest crisis. And, of course, we'll be doing the same thing with a hurricane and tropical storm landing page coming up here in the next couple, three weeks that will stand up as well. I know myself being a lifelong Florida resident and really multi-generational Floridian, I can't even tell you how many hurricanes I've been through, and they're very dangerous and destructive, so we want to make sure that we're up to speed there. We've posted some reports, updated that we find,

and links on COVID, as I mentioned, on the riot and looting. We've put out some special crime science podcast episodes, of course, around COVID. Look for more to come. And then now we've just put out some or getting ready to on the riot and looting issue, starting with one of our colleagues from the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. And so Tammy will be describing Tamara on certain research that she's doing, what she learned about crowd science, crowd behavior, and the fact that we're not just dealing with a crowd, but the individuals or the clumps of individuals within crowds. And the clumps you'll find by listening to this are very important to understand and think about in trying to deter, disrupt, document, but to protect.

So we're going to continue to do debriefing calls. I had another one yesterday with an incident commander from California, a captain. I won't name names, but we are talking with quite a few asset protection people that are on the front lines, that are in the background trying to plan and support. The same thing with law enforcement. Those that are in the background, those that are in the command centers, the incident command centers, and then those that are on the front line looking for lessons learned and ways that we can support. line, looking for lessons learned and ways that we can support. I can also tell you that the American Society for Evidence-Based Policing has been very active. Some of the suggestions around improving police procedure, police practice, both at the strategic and the tactical level, how to engage with each other, how to engage with the community, how to engage with people that are being arrested or dealing with people when it is that person's worst day.

It's tough. It's not easy for anybody to deal with that. When somebody's victimizing somebody else, they've now been caught or in the midst. We're going to have some more to come on de-escalation. A key we're learning, of course, is if you're having to de-escalate something and you're a law enforcement or asset protection leader or on the front lines, or you're a store manager or one of the team, think about the word de-escalate means it's already escalated. And so now we're forced always in crime prevention, always in dealing with people that are agitated, angry, high, intoxicated, whatever it might be, that we're dealing with them in that state. And so we're always having to choose the best of not good options. And it's not pretty. So especially now with everybody having cameras,

it's difficult to look seamless and well orchestrate things sometimes. But we know that statutes and regulations and then obviously agency and corporate procedures and then the training, the reinforcement of the training, all these things are important to continue to enhance. And that's what the American Society of Evidence-Based Policing is doing. Part of it, too, is trying to find mechanisms to make more of the research available to the practitioners, the asset protection practitioners. That's our role here at the LPRC.

The similar role of the American Society of Evidence-Based Policing on the law enforcement side. But all these journals that the criminologists, the sociologists, the psychologists, everybody submits their articles to are by and large read by academics. Through their institutions, they can get behind what's called the paywall, right? How do we make those journals, or specifically the articles that are most relevant, available to the practitioners, to the planners, to the leaders in the organizations that need them? And how do we make them more readily interpretable and

actionable so that they're actually used and carried out? So more to come on that. Science is iterative. Science, unfortunately, takes a while. Look at all of us here, maybe waiting for months or years for a COVID-19 vaccine or even better therapeutics. So we'll go over now with no further ado. I'm going to go to Tom Meehan. Tom's going to get us up to date on what we need to know in these dual crises. date on what we need to know in these dual crises. Well, thanks for that. I'm probably going to bounce back and forth because I thought it was interesting how a lot of the cyber risk and social engineering and scamming really has transitioned from COVID to some of the civil disturbance back and forth. And I'll start with there in the last 10 days, and this is kind of really an interesting fact, there has been a real increase in, and I think Forbes said, fraud goes viral. Be aware of these scams perpetrated by COVID-19 and then other criminals. And so what's occurring now is you have a lot of donation

type web-based formats coming up around the protests and COVID-19 and a large percentage of them are fraudulent. And these aren't fly-by type websites. These are very well thought out, look very official, where business names are created and everything but the actual 501C is filed. But if you looked at this website and did some research, you would find that there was an LLC and the DBA and all these legal things. are collecting donations to help people with COVID-19 and now protesters. One of the interesting parts was there was a website out of a section that was registered out of Nigeria, and the same address has multiple websites. It wasn't really done well of all these different donation scams. So it's just a reminder, And I hate to be repetitive and say reminder to really think through and look at what you're doing. And if you're going to make a

donation for anything that you go to a reputable source, a source that's been established and reputable. I think the key here is established where it's not a foundation or a group that started yesterday. And you can kind of track the trail of what it is. And I'm looking just at my notes here and there were over a thousand registered yesterday for donation pages related in the GoFundMe world and the Patreon world, just specific to the protests. So just keep in mind that in a day, today with technology,

in a day you can literally set up a company, set up a bank account, do everything and tomorrow I could close it all and cash that out. So it's one of those scams that are coming up. Also, the IRS sent out a reminder related to stimulus checks and that to go to their website for information that there have been a plethora of websites that are going up specifically designed to steal information related to stimulus checks. And this again, is taking the advantage of the power of the internet and creating very, very well thought out websites with information. And then, hey, just put in your information and we'll help you get your stimulus payment. So Identity Theft 101, they ask for all of the things that you wouldn't want someone to have. You put it on a website and then they have it. With everything that's going on now, we're all more susceptible to that, especially folks that are unemployed, especially folks that really need that stimulus check or need that extra income right now. It allows them to kind of be taking advantage of.

And I think we talked about this before, but it's a good reminder of the unemployment sites. Similarly, if you don't go to a secondary site, make sure you're going to a very reputable site. A new thing that is coming around and new in the sense that not new scam, but new in the sense that it is happening now, because as retail opens throughout the United States, there has been a whole group of scams related to coupons. And the FBI actually put out a warning that last week related to this, where you have folks going out and perpetrating that they are a retailer to give a coupon, and you just need to give them some information to get this. And the way it works is some of these coupons or rebates are of high value. So what the scammers are doing is they're taking advantage of, you're going to get this Home Depot voucher for $300, but of course we have to take your information for tax purposes. So kind of the rule of thumb is if it's too good to be true, it probably is.

There aren't many free offerings where people give you hundreds and hundreds of dollars without any initial spend. This was heavily reported through local news and the FBI. So this is something that was really happening quite a bit. The Better Business Bureau also put out a bulletin around social media, retail coupons and scams related to the pandemic. So sounds kind of, when I say it out loud, sounds kind of silly to think that that would happen. But the most common coupon is for $100. And the Better Business Bureau says that Facebook and Twitter, the channel and Bed Bath & Beyond, Bath & Body Works, Costco,

Aldi, Starbucks, Trader Joe, and Home Depot are the most common ones you see. So this is really someone running through. And the goal here is the perpetrator is trying to get as much information about you as possible. And the quick rules that I'll go through, and I think it applies to a lot of things that we're talking about today, is be skeptical. Take a look at it. Can't talk today. Check directly with the source. You know, take the time to go directly to the retail website and look at it and see, you know, if there's anything about it.

Send them. Most retailers have a live chat or an email you can run through. Look at the expiration dates. What is pretty common with some of these scams is they don't have expiration dates. And we all know that that's highly unlikely for a retailer because what do retailers want? They want people to get into stores quickly. And there are a lot of great offers out there with new retailers opening. So if it doesn't have an expiration date, if it doesn't look legitimate, run through and then verify the source that it's coming from.

Do that research. Is it a brand new source? One of the key indicators of potential fraud is a flyby website, something that just opened up without any history. And really work through and look at that. If the website doesn't look secure, if it doesn't have the proper protocols, the the things that don't make sense run through. And then you also can just do a general Google search if the information isn't readily available. Generally, when there is a great deal out there, a lot of people are talking about it. This, again, was heavily reported through CBS and NBC all over the United States.

I think the first place it was reported out of was Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, then the FBI picked it up and went through. Switching gears over to some of the activity with the protests that are going on, a couple of quick reminders as these protests go on. I'm getting a lot of calls about social media monitoring and open source intelligence gathering. It is a great tool to keep track. I know the LPRC has some resources to help people run through. But one of the reminders that I would like to put out there is that when you're using social media and when you're using open source intelligence is just to take the time to make sure that you're validating the information that came out. There

was a lot of false information specifically related to New York City, Chicago, and Miami, where the police were making statements that weren't actually the police. So people were using social media. Some in satire, kind of joking ways that really took off with things opening, public transportations closing. So again, double check that source. Now is the time when there's so much misinformation out there that it's really, really important to double check that source and use common sense. If it doesn't make sense, it probably isn't accurate. When I say that out loud, I think, read, Tony, I don't know. I would say we're in such a wacky time with everything that's going on. Common sense might not make sense with some of these things because we're doing things that we've never faced before. But pick up the phone and call a partner here and see if they've seen the same thing.

bulletins about buses being used for other things. And they were just fictitious in nature. They had no warrant or any basis, but people were starting to make decisions based on them while using social media and open source intelligence gathering as a platform. So I think it's important to really double check those things. And then the last, which is kind of more of a tip, is as these protests and things are going on, a good resource, and it is free and there are paid options here, there are a couple resources available, but radioreference.com or Broadcastify have a lot of live police, federal, local law enforcement, first responder feeds where they just basically take the radio transmissions and stream them over the internet. So if you're in a big metropolitan city

and you have a sock, this is another tool that you can add very, very quickly to just give another layer of information. So a quick tip on that, and I would strongly advise all the listeners, just take the 30 seconds or so to take a look at those. Another great resource for everybody that's out there. I know that when I'm speaking to folks, they're really, really struggling with getting accurate, up-to-date information while these things are going on. And I think before I turn it over to Tony, just, and I know Reid is definitely more versed in this than mentioned, it is just let's not forget all these other things that are going on in the world. COVID-19 and these protests did not stop the natural occurrences that are occurring.

You know, there's still volatility in the Middle East. Our oil prices are a little wacky outside the United States. And we are going into what is predicted to be a very rough hurricane season. And I think it's super, super important. And I know at face value, everybody remembers it that yes, we need to focus on getting stores open and COVID-19 and protests. But we need to not forget we're about to go into a hurricane season and potentially have some major challenges. So how do we adjust in these times? Tony, over to you. Thank you very much, Tom. So, again, I'm going to continue with the updates in terms of the latest data that is taking place in the retail space.

And this past week, actually, a new study was published on returns, and returns are expected to spike because of COVID-19. And this is, again, from the IHL group. So they said that in 2015, the value of returns was estimated at $643 billion. By the end of 2019, that figure has increased to over a trillion dollars worldwide. North America is $363 billion, EMEA is $381 billion, and LATAM is about $70 billion. It's about 70. And with COVID-19, as I said, retailers could see as much as $200 billion in returns in the first 30 to 60 days that they actually open the stores and start accepting returns. The average margin that is lost because of returns for food and drug has mass merged at five points, for department stores and specialty stores, it's six points.

And returns actually do matter a lot. In fact, 86% of consumers look for easy returns. 81% will switch to a competitor if they have a bad return experience. And 20 to 30% of consumers actually will buy additional items when they come to the store to do a return. So it's an opportunity. And for fashion, the returns, if the item is bought in the store, is actually only 10 to 20%. If they buy it online, this number keeps shocking me, returns for fashion are actually as high as 50%. And one of the challenges right now, a lot of multiple retailers are closing dressing room, which means you cannot try on your clothes, which means you're going to be returning more. So $48 billion in apparel is returned because of incorrect sizing. And that's to think about that $48 billion. That's more than the combined revenue of Coles and Macy's combined.

And finally, on returns, the level of return fraud is actually, to me, was shocking. It's about, of all returns, about 8% to 10%. So there's a lot of good data, again, in that report. Also, I've been following very closely what's happened to cash. And now we actually headed to a cashless society. So the latest data actually I saw again this past week is that the idea of going cashless is increasing in interest. It's up 14% since March when the last time the civic science did a survey. 7% of the survey people were all in.

25% are okay with it. But what's shocking to me is 57% are still against it. And 77% believe it would be unfair as it excludes people with bank accounts. So cash is still the third largest accepted method of payment. Debit is number one at 50%. Credit card is number two at 28. And cash is 17%. And mobile and digital payments, which I thought would spike a lot more, is still sitting at around 2%. Let me switch actually now to a topic that actually Tom brought up. Yes, we are still in the middle of COVID-19

and let's not forget that. And McKinsey published some data this week in terms of where the debts are per capita and which countries are actually leading in terms of debt per capita. And it was interesting that in terms of exactly how the world is evolving in this challenge. So number one is Belgium.

Belgium has the highest debt per capita. Number two is Spain. Number three is UK. Number four is Italy. Then France, Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, and USA is ranked ninth. And Switzerland is ranked 10th. So those are the top 10 in terms of deaths per capita as of June 1, according to McKinsey. And finally, in all these podcasts, I'd like to end on positive notes.

CNBC reported this week, and all of us saw the great job spike in $2.5 billion and the dropping in the unemployment rate. But they also share some data that shows that we are indeed coming out of COVID-19. So they share that data from the navigation of Apple, the navigation app that they have. We are driving more. We are actually walking more, but it's still more than 50% below the January level. So, but we are up more. Also restaurant bookings are up. They're about 80% below normal versus what they were in April,

100% since everything was closed. So we're coming back. And then hotel occupancy is up. It's near 40% and New York is actually over 40%. And air travel, which totally shut down, is also starting to trickle up. And so that's another trend. And finally, we're actually applying for more home mortgages now. It's up nearly 20% compared to last year.

And this might be the desire for us to move from crowded cities to maybe suburbs or other places. So there is a lot more activity in the mortgage. So we are coming out. The world is actually looking post-COVID-19, even though as was discussed in this podcast, we're also dealing with all the process and challenges that the retail industry is facing. And with that as a summary for this week,

I'm going to turn it over to Reed. All right. Well, thank you everybody for some enlightening, incredible information. What we want to do now is make sure that everybody stays safe. We're here as a resource to the best of our ability. We're tapping into anybody and everybody we can. We want to remind everybody that LPRC's 2020 Impact Conference is still a full go for that first week in October of this year coming up. Right now, we've got it as a total online or virtual experience.

We've got an amazing lineup of 12 different sessions with research content and those involved in the research to help us understand, interpret, but most critically, how can we use that to get better at what we're doing? We've got panels and things that are going to be around, you can imagine, around these crises, pre-planning, handling, recovering, and getting ready for the next one around natural disasters, pandemics, and pathogens that we're dealing with. And of course, the civil disorder that becomes violent and is destroying stores and jobs as well. So please plan on joining us online.

We are gonna have some kind of in-person experience as well on campus at the University of Florida, particularly for this strategy at, but keep checking lpresearch, particularly for this strategy at, but keep chunking lpresearch.org for our landing pages, for update information, how you can get involved and engaged in research and innovation and everything that we're doing here to try and support the retail community. Let's all stick together. Let's all stay safe. And everybody have a fantastic rest of the week.

Thank you from Gainesville. The content provided in the Crime Science Podcast is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for legal, financial, or other advice. Views expressed by guests of the Crime Science Podcast are those of the authors and do not reflect the opinions or positions of the Office of Prevention Research Council.