LPRC - CrimeScience – COVID-19 Series: Episode 6 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D’onofrio, and Tom Meehan

Episode Date: May 18, 2020

On this episode of the weekly LPRC CrimeScience COVID-19 Series, we discuss LPRC initiatives, including our current COVID-19 research, the economic outlook, robbery data, employment scams, cybersecurity, and much more. The post CrimeScience – COVID-19 Series: Episode 6 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D’onofrio, and Tom Meehan appeared first on Loss Prevention Research Council.

Hi, everyone. Welcome to Crime Science. In this podcast, we aim to explore the science of crime and the practical application of the science for loss prevention and asset protection practitioners, as well as other professionals. Co-host Dr. Reid Hayes of the Loss Prevention Research Council and Tom Meehan of ControlTech discuss a wide range of topics with industry experts, thought leaders, solution providers, and many more. We would like to thank Bosch for making this episode possible. Use Bosch Camera's onboard intelligent video analytics to quickly locate important recorded incidents or events. Bosch's forensic search saves you time and money by searching through hours or days of video within minutes to find and collect video evidence. Learn more about intelligent video analytics from Bosch in zones one through four of LPRC's zones of influence by visiting Bosch online at boschsecurity.com. Welcome everybody to another episode of Crime Science Podcast. This is another

in our series of special COVID-19 episodes where we discuss a little bit about what the LPRC is doing to support the APLP community during this very trying time, as well as talk with Tony D'Onofrio about what he's seeing out there in the United States and around the globe as far as responses, outcomes so far, trends and patterns that we probably should know about and incorporate in what we're doing, our planning and so on. And then, of course, to Tom Meehan to discuss some of the risks, hazards and other observations, particularly around security and loss prevention. So I'd like to start off by talking a little bit about what LPRC, of course, is up to. We had a really good LPRC Innovate Advisory Panel call

last week where we talked about some of the priorities of what we're doing now and how we're where we talked about some of the priorities of what we're doing now and how we're preparing for the future. And I think everybody, all of our listeners can relate to, you know, we are really working at all times in two modes, but probably more than ever now in handling what we're up against, trying to get an idea of what's coming in the near term. And then at the same time, trying to build our capability for the longer term. When we're completely and fully emerged from this, whatever that looks like, whether that's in five months or five years, but trying to maintain those tracks. And with the Innovate Advisory Panel, we talked about some near-term needs as well as longer term. And so

the longer term, of course, we are continuing to stand up the capability of our four lab spaces, the technology to communicate between our four labs as well as outside to the outside world, streaming video footage in from stores into the lab and vice versa, be able to broadcast sight and sound from our four labs out to corporate offices or field places and so on. So that everybody can truly, in a connected way, collaborate on R&D. We could be working with Bunnings and some of our Australian colleagues or in the UK or South Africa or anywhere all around the world, as well as maybe a corporate office in any town in the USA. So we're excited about continuing along that line, reviewing some

of the new virtual reality platforms that continues to be built out by Dr. Kong and her team at UF, UF and working with some of the tech companies on AI, building out now a nice, powerful compute box that'll be Edge. So now with some of the nice cameras we've got from some of the leading companies like Bosch and Axis and others where we've got some computing power on the Edge in the cameras, this technology allows us to have some pretty strong, powerful GPU-powered compute in the building that can be used here and elsewhere to develop algorithms. So while we collect data sets of still and action footage, that's going to give us that power to do those things. So very exciting what will be able to be done. But a big part of the Innovate program is around near-term problem solving. And so what the Innovate advisory panels come up with our team is what we're calling right now R3. In

other words, rapid response research. What can we do to help them orchestrate, better orchestrate what's going on with carb site? And that could be in a very busy environment. It could be a slower environment. It could be day. It could be night, where again, we could have pedestrians in conflict with two-ton automobiles. So we want to get it right to accommodate physical safety, viral spread safety, and then of course, convenience. So how do we stage product and move it and do these things? So we're moving on this rapid response research in that area, as well as spacing, leveraging some of the tech in that way to better understand what's going on in that arena. So the other part we're talking about is repurposing. So we've been doing some surveys with LPRC members, with the retail chains,

and with the solution partners, getting an idea of what they're doing with their people, with new shift rotations, moving people from APLP into other areas, cross-departmental training, from APLP into other areas, cross-departmental training, some of the proper store behavior and de-escalation training. How do we, to use one of our members' terms, how do we reinforce what the local guidance or regulations are saying rather than enforce those so that we keep out of trouble. We all know there's been some tragic incidents where people suggested that somebody wear a mask or maintain a distance or maybe not even walk on a one-way aisle toward another person to try and preclude that airborne transmission of the infection. So looking at some of that repurposing of people, the training of them with special training, how do we get that training all the way out to each and every member of the team in the stores is very, very important. How do we better use plexiglass barriers at checkout, in the pharmacies, exchange counters, other interactions? environment. Our retailer members not only operate stores, but of course, offices at the corporate

and regional level. So they want to reestablish more function in their offices to be more efficient, more collaborative. So what are ways that we do spacing and use barriers, hygiene, and other things there? And the same thing in the distribution centers. That was a big topic. We can't preclude the supply chain. It's mission critical. So that's another part of the rapid response research, the R3. So we've got a whole lot there. We can cover some things.

We're doing the parking lot, in-store broadcasting to try and inform and softly maintain the compliance there. So the other parts are with LPRC, again, the IMPACT 2020 planning committees meets by phone every other week. They go through content and logistics, again, the first week in October. That fourth, fifth, sixth timeframe of of this year, impact is scheduled to be full go virtually, but there will be some physical, I guess, some of the ways that we're

standing that up right now to look at, well, with strategy out with the number ones and twos, how can we accommodate that for those that would like to come in? And again, we could have 50, we could have 500 executives in attendance, so we're planning accordingly, but look for a pretty cool virtual, almost 3D platform that we're experimenting with to make sure that we're not only putting out some really good content from all the research that's happened before COVID and during COVID, but that the experience itself, while not the same, and you can't do it, accommodate the same way and create that same experience in person, but still make it pretty neat and interesting. It'll allow us now actually to push content and the experience out

farther and farther to those in the APLP structures that really never would have had that experience and non-APLP that would like to get involved. The cluster calls continue. We just finished round two. The round one of report, of course, is out and available on our LPRC special COVID-19 landing page. The cluster call round two is being worked on right now, the report by the team. Look for that to be posted in the next week. We will be doing another round with our solution partners, working with them. The solutions that are on the solution directory, that's being completed

so that we'll be able to stand that up on the website with the eventuality here in the next, hopefully two to four months where you'll see and be able to do a virtual tour again of the LPRC's engagement lab that you can put your cursor and see a matter tab pop up that would show you what that technology is, what zone of influence it goes into, what it's trying to affect. And that would be linked back to that page. At UF, we continue working on AI solutions in interdisciplinary teams with industrial and systems engineering,

with also colleagues in human-centered computing, user experience design, as well as over in digital world. So very exciting research going on there. So what I'm going to do is, with no further ado, go over to my colleague here, Tony D'Onofrio. Let's talk about patterns and trends, things we should know about. Thank you, Reid, very much. So I'm going to start with the highlights of a new blog that I published this week on post-COVID-19 economic and retail trends.

That will appear actually on the LPRC landing page this week. So you can read more of the details. I'm just going to give you a few of the highlights that appear in that blog. So Euromonitor projected that GDP will shrink 3% in 2020 versus being up 3% in 2019. USA will have a negative 5.8% GDP versus 2.3 positive last year. Germany will be down 6.3%. And Italy, which is very familiar to me being Italian, really was one of the hardest hit country and they'll be down 9% in GDP this year. That's an amazing percentage, but they went through a really tough time with COVID-19. And in that blog, you'll also see that the only consumer sector that is positive is the food in 2020. Also in that blog is a little bit of data in terms of how much of U.S. retail is still closed. So as of May 6th, 50.7% of stores are

still closed. The forecast for April is to be negative 40% and May negative 25%. And that's based on non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year sales. And then finally, also on that blog, and you can read a lot more detail, is that overall U.S. retail is not going to recover to 2019 levels until December 2022. Food and drug are going to stay positive. Their spike will decline, as you'll see in there. So the famous, whether it's going to be a V or an L or a U-shaped curve, you'll see the analysis of what happens to retail in that blog. So food and drug will stay positive. Apartment stores and apparel are not going to recover until 2023 at best,

and restaurants are going to recover in 2022. I didn't put it in the blog because it was actually really intensive, but IHL actually shared this week how many stores potentially will close of 2000 because of COVID-19 in 2020. And the number was astronomical, 299,000. Of that 220,000 are mom and pop stores or one-store chain companies. And then in terms of large chains, the 1,000 stores or more, there'll be 16,165 stores that will close. So a severe impact. I will have more on that in a future update. And then finally, IHL updated the

forecast for sectors. Department stores are expected to be down 29% this year, especially soft goods, which includes apparel, down 20%. Restaurants down 25% and convenience down 8%. The bright spots are food and grocery, which will be up 10.5. Drug will be up 10. Supercenters, 12.5. And mass merchandisers will be up to 12%. And as Reid said, I also like to track how and when do we come out of this. And CoreSight Research actually did a pretty good analysis this week in terms of the phases that we'll go through. So we're in the shutdown phase, which they project will last through June. Then we'll get into an initial shopper or caution phase, which they project will go June through October. And we'll

get to relatives, what they call relative stability in the October onward phase, but in the medium term, settling as significant, less than 100% of previous norms. In fact, many retailers are preparing for discretionary holiday spending to be down 20%. So it's going to be a tough holiday season this year based on where the projections are right now. Also of interest to me this week was a Forrester update in terms of where technology spend is going as a result, and they presented this in the JLL webinar. So the taking a backseat are things like artificial intelligence right now near term, sustainability initiatives, experiential retail. Getting a lot more focus is micro fulfillment, making returns to be easier, and order management system to support omni-channel.

So those are the areas that are getting a lot of attention. And then there's some new categories coming into the mix because of COVID-19. One is spending more from a retail industry point of view on the government relations to make sure you get your share whenever there's a recovery effort. Other ways to sell more services or selling a lot more services and then cash reservation is where a lot of attention is going on. Let me switch for this audience a little bit to crime and talk about the D&D robbery data that just came out yesterday, this week. So for Q1 2020, robberies are up 37% from 2016 and up 14% from 2019. It's actually the most incidents ever reported were in Q1 2020.

The top three targeted categories were convenience, jewelry, and restaurants. 84% were males. And they like to do it on Monday and Tuesday. Those were the two primary days. And then of interest was the city change. The top three cities in 2020 for USA for robberies were Chicago, San Antonio, and Las Vegas versus last year in 2019, same time, it was Houston,

Tulsa, and Los Angeles. There was also some interesting, and let me wrap up with some interesting data in terms of what consumers are thinking as we come out of the post-pandemic. So this is from eMarketer. They said that 79% are going to save more and spend less. 68% are going to avoid non-essential travel. 59% are going to take a car to go somewhere versus flying. And 43% are going to keep ordering online groceries. And how often do adults think they will shop in physical store? And this was good news. 62%, 62.5% said they're going to go back to about the same shopping in physical stores.

20%, we're going to go back to about the same shopping in physical stores. 20% were going to do it less often, and 17% were going to do it more often. And then finally, some data that came out again this week on where we're at in terms of the reopening. Daily U.S. store visits averaged 192 million this week, which are up 15% from the previous week. Business to closing stores were up 21%, but we're nowhere to normal. We're actually 40% lower than average estimates at the same time in 2019. And for apparel, we're 80% down from the normal. So the good news, we're reopening. People are going into stores, so retail is coming back. So that's a little bit of what the data is telling us from around the world. And with that, I'm going to turn it over to Tom to talk about

some of the risks. Thanks, Tony. Definitely a great update. And I'm going to start with a kind of just a couple of cybersecurity risks. And some of this may sound repetitive, but I think it's really important to think about it. One is the unemployment rate is about 15% at the time of this podcast. I think there's actually got to be a release later on today. So that number is likely to rise. So this first scam is really about the need for people to look for jobs. So there is a host, and this is actually starting from overseas, but there is a call center out of India that has been being tracked pretty heavily where they are responding to posts that they put up online for jobs from work at home jobs. So I think the first thing to say is, if you six months ago talked about this scam So I think the first thing to say is, if you six months ago talked about this scam, I think everybody would immediately go, well, it's obviously a scam. But the new norm is, let's face it, be remote, let's work at home. So there is about 2,000 websites that were posted up in the last 10 days with very, very well-written job postings for phone support for major retailers.

And when you go onto this website and apply for the job, you get a text message back. And basically what happens is they start the application process through WhatsApp or text message. There's been about 10,000 reports globally of people that are being involved in this. reports globally of people that are being involved in this. And basically what is occurring is the interview portion, the beginning portion of this pseudo interview, which is obviously not real, starts over text message and WhatsApp, and it is an identity fraud scam. One of the things I would say is when I read this and I spoke to someone else on the phone about it this week, they said, oh, well,

obviously that's a scam. I think when you're looking for a job and you're unemployed and you see a job posted from a company like Apple and it's very promising and looks legitimate, it's very easy to fall into that. So I often say double check, be vigilant when you're doing things online. This is one of the times where I would say the new normal is remote text message, Zoom, Skype, and all of those things. And it's very easy for you to get onto a Skype call and the other person say, I'm really sorry, I'm having a technical issue. My video isn't working or I'm having a technical issue today. So we're going to do the majority of this via text message or WhatsApp. So just reminding all of us that the new normal poses new risk for us.

And what we would have before looked at and obviously said it was a challenge or a scam, I think today becomes a bigger challenge. And I would also leave that as a similar scam, but it seems to be taking off pretty well as there is a your account has been hacked type scam that's going around again. And this is using text message. And these are very, very convincing text messaging with information. And what is occurring is you have folks that are scouring the dark web to get credentials on a cell phone number and use your real information to contact you to get more information. So for

instance, you would get an email saying your Netflix account is hacked and you'd get a text message saying that as well, but they'd have your real email address, they'd have your real password and they'd ask you to go through some steps to change it. And it's very important to update your account information. Again, I think when you think of the way things occur today versus even six weeks ago, some of these are very evident when you hear them or read about them. But when you're in the moment of time, they're preying on the fact that things are remote. Things like our call centers experience hours and hours of call volume or days. And the only way to resolve this is through a website or text message is actually a really good way to do things. And the example I'll give is I ordered some stuff

online and I was shipped a damaged product and I called and the message from the retailer said that we're likely to call you back in seven to 10 days. If you'd like, you can go to our website to do this. That's a legitimate, very large retailer. So that now reinforces the behavior that the new normal is that I'm not going to talk to you, that I am going to go through a text message or I'm going to go through a website. So I think it's just a stark reminder to really take a second glance, especially if you're in a need for a job or looking to kind of take some financial stability. The next one that is out and about, and it's very, very prevalent now, is the IRS just released that basically the availability to get a stimulus check through a direct deposit

is going away and you need to go to their website to fill this out. Well, there's about 1, 1900 fake IRS websites that were put into place yesterday. Very, very good looking sites. And what this is, is you have a legitimate customer or a legitimate person, apologize, looking to get their stimulus check and they go to a website that looks legitimate and lo and behold, they put their information in. This is designed for the scammers to actually steal the stimulus check. So as there is some urgency put upon from the government that if you want the stimulus check direct deposit, go to these websites. Scammers have really taken the advantage of that situation. That was reported by SecurityWorks.

So it's a pretty widely known one. The other one that is coming up, and this was from ESET Security this week, was a couple, and I say a couple because they only found a few apps on the Google Play Store where there are maps of COVID-19 and where you can get alerting, and these maps are actually data stealers. So I think we talked a little bit about this on the first episode is if you need your information, go to the sources that you know, the WHO, go to the CDC, go to a reputable news source. Try to avoid downloading the really cool looking maps unless there's a real need to have something different and you want to really stick with a trusted source to run through. Another scam that I think has been

going on for a long time, but really plays in the COVID-19 is your shipment is delayed or needs to be redirected. So for anybody that has ordered anything from Amazon, you probably see that message that says due to COVID-19, we're delaying shipments. So I can tell you that we've done quite a bit of ordering online. We moved during the pandemic, so we've had to. And every single site says this. So this message is actually the one that I think right now is getting the most traction. Kurskarsky Labs reported this on the 11th as a huge influx of these messages. And they're specifically related to COVID-19. And today, because so many people are forced to order online, there's just an influx of the likelihood of you

actually waiting for something to come is higher than it was before. It used to be an enticement message, right? It used to be an enticement scam where it would be like, huh, just someone sending me something. Now the reality is there's a likelihood that you are. And obviously the scammers play on the things like Amazon and they play on the, the bigger, bigger organizations to follow their scams. So again, I, I, I know I'm being repetitive here, but be vigilant. Look, look through things. If you are expecting a package and you do get that email, go back to your original site of origin. So don't click on that link. Go back to Amazon and check on your order. Go back to your Best Buy or Home Depot, whoever you're ordering from, and go that route.

That extra 30 seconds could save you a lot of headache later on running through. Another IBM X-Force released a report at the beginning of this week is also related to the Department of Labor, where there are scams for unemployment. There are a whole bunch of people in the United States that just cannot get through the unemployment website. They can't get on the phone. So there has been several stand-up websites that look very official and are gathering people's data to do identity theft based on that need for unemployment. And when you go on Google and you search unemployment and you search the state that you live in, if you click on a website and it looks legitimate and you start to file unemployment and it's not, it creates a challenge. So take that extra. And I say it's 30 seconds to validate

that where you are is where you're supposed to be, do that with everything that you're doing now. I always recommend that. But I would say that right now, more than ever, because there's a need for unemployment, because there's a need for jobs, because there's things shipping, really, the scammers can really take advantage and social engineering is at a whole new level. And I'll round it out with kind of some simple things that are occurring that I think just are good reminders of the bail bondsman scam. The NYPD was on all over the news yesterday where there are folks that are going in.

And again, this is an old scam that generally plays on the elderly. But what it is is where someone calls and a relative has been arrested and you need to bail them out. And again, with COVID-19, the level of urgency that comes into a play of they're going to get sick, they're in jail, this is all you need to do. As soon as you can get through that social engineering piece and say enough things to convince people, it's very easy for them to work through. So those phone scams are really prevalent and running through. We talked about medical supplies. It's a good reminder that I think we're in the US and the UK, we're averaging

about 2,500 sites every two or three days that are being removed for fake or counterfeit goods. The thing there is you go, you order your mask, you never get it. By the time you figure out it's not coming, the site is gone and your money is gone. And because the lead times are so long with some of these things, you don't get the level of protection you think you do from a credit card because you're not expecting this thing for 12 weeks. By the time you realize it's not coming, it's too late to file for a chargeback. And most of these countries are flyby. So they're lo and behold, they're gone. There's no real place for them to go from there. I think Tony mentioned robbery being up.

And I think this is a really important, and this is both a home and a business piece. The new norm is mask, right? So I think if you think about even right before this, if you had someone come up to your establishment with a mask on or come to your house, this is really geared towards personal safety, you would be concerned. Now you wouldn't. There are a host of scams where people are going to the house. Remember, masks, gloves are common. So that person coming up to your door representing themselves as something else poses a different threat than it does today. And that happens in both the retail environment and your personal environment.

There are a host of reports of social engineering type scams where people go to the house to do work related to COVID. One that when I read, I thought was odd, but then I went and dig deeper and saw the amount of reports there were where people were offering cleaning services outside of your house.

Cleaning of a driveway was a big one, believe it or not, that was spreading throughout the United States where someone comes with a pressure washer and has a special chemical to pressure wash. And if you pay them, they're so busy. Remember, this person's wearing a full mask. You can't see who they are. And that scam is relatively simplistic. They're trying to get you to pay a down payment and they're not coming back. But robbery in general is up. The crime stats, I would say, we still need to take them with a grain of salt because they're still mixed. But there is a definite increase of robbery related to a mask.

So if you're not expecting someone at your house, take that extra special second to make sure that you're not opening the door. Remember, everybody will be wearing masks now. So this isn't to strike fear. It's just to remind people to be vigilant and pay closer attention to their surroundings. And in the retail side, I suspect that we'll continue to hear these acts related to masks occurring. I also would say that there's been another increase. This is the second week in a row where retailers that are open have had increases of threats of violence related to folks wearing masks and also threats related to assault where people are being spit and sneezed on. Actually, the most arrests recorded ever were in the last week related to assault when it comes to spitting on someone.

So that's a clear indication that the criminals are taking advantage of this is another way to weaponize it. And I think I mentioned that last week, there are some states that are taking a very aggressive stance to elevate that level of crime to try to deter it. But as we know, with all the things going on in the criminal justice system, if you elevate a crime and you're not willing to make an arrest and there's not bail, it really is more of a threat or a perceived elevation of it. It actually doesn't make a difference. Back over to you, Reid. Thanks for that, Tom.

And I think there are lessons learned in everything you're talking about. everything you're talking about. And I've mentioned before on this podcast that I'm a member of a group of criminologists around the world, over 100, that are environmental criminology or those that look at how we can shape the environment to reduce the opportunity as well as the incentives for crime. And the examples you talked about, of course, the mask is the poster child, if you will, the mask is the poster child, if you will, for what we're talking about, how that changes dynamics in many ways. So we've got two mask research projects underway that we're excited to carry out and help to inform the group out there. The other part of that is, you know, you see these, it kind of pops up in a lot of different ways. And one way is at first we saw a dramatic decrease in traffic accidents and the severity of those accidents that occurred when people stopped driving everywhere.

And then what we found now is that you're starting to see more dangerous and more deadly accidents happening on the highways and roadways because there was not as much traffic. And so those people that were out there were driving at higher speeds. there was not as much traffic. And so those people that were out there were driving at higher speeds. So it just, it shows how the environment, the conditions shape our behavior, unfortunately. And in a lot of ways, the behavior is not good.

So thank you, Tom, for that insight. Thank you very much, Tony, for your insights. Always valuable. So what we'd like to do is wish, again, everybody out there a safe, staged recovery is always what we're trying to advocate here. People's livelihoods are at stake as well as their lives. And so let's do it the right way, whatever that looks like as we're evidence-based in what we do. So from the LPRC team, on behalf of Tony and Tom, our producer Kevin Tran, I want to thank everybody again for joining us on Crime Science Podcast. Thanks for listening to the Crime Science Podcast presented by the Laws Prevention Research Council and sponsored by Bosch Security. If you enjoyed today's episode, you can find more Crime Science episodes and valuable information at lpresearch.org.

more crime science episodes and valuable information at lpresearch.org. The content provided in the Crime Science Podcast is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for legal, financial, or other advice. Views expressed by guests of the Crime Science Podcast are those of the authors and do not reflect the opinions or positions of the LPS Prevention Research Council.