LPRC - CrimeScience – COVID-19 Series: Episode 9 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D’onofrio, and Tom Meehan

Episode Date: June 4, 2020

This week’s LPRC CrimeScience COVID-19 Series episode delves into both the ongoing pandemic as well as the emerging riots and looting incidents. Tune in as Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D’onofrio, and Tom Meehan discuss this and more, including LPRC initiatives, social media monitoring, cyber-attacks, online shopping, new data on the economy, and the financial impact of COVID-19 on stores. The post CrimeScience – COVID-19 Series: Episode 9 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D’onofrio, and Tom Meehan appeared first on Loss Prevention Research Council.

Hi everyone, welcome to Crime Science. In this podcast, we aim to explore the science of crime and the practical application of the science for loss prevention and asset protection practitioners, as well as other professionals. We would like to thank Bosch for making this episode possible. Use Bosch Camera's onboard intelligent video analytics to quickly locate important recorded incidents or events. Bosch's forensic search saves you time and money by searching through hours or days of

video within minutes to find and collect video evidence. Learn more about intelligent video analytics from Bosch in zones one through four of LPRC's zones of influence by visiting Bosch online at BoschSecurity.com. Welcome, everybody, to another episode of Crime Science, the podcast. This will be another in our series of special COVID-19 episodes. Clearly, today, we're also going to be folding in another very critical issue. And that is what started as very peaceful and understandable public gatherings and demonstrations

into outside agitators, leveraging those to commit crime and attack people, burn structures, and shoot at and shoot police officers and others. So what we'll do is kind of we'll talk, we'll cover both of those in a rapid roundtable. Here I'm joined today as per normal by Tom Meehan and Tony D'Onofrio and our producer Kevin Tran. So first of all, going to COVID-19, we know that most organizations have or have executing or are currently getting ready to execute 100-day plans or some version thereof.

Looking at, again, still the hand-washing and social distance or the physical distance of at least four to eight feet seems to be the most powerful way not to transmit the virus. We continue to get more and more testing done. So the rates are showing much lower rates of infection as of the time of this recording than was anticipated. reporting uh than was anticipated and therefore also the number of asymptomatic and very very low symptomatic um people that are infected uh that that may be actually a little higher as well so um stay tuned on all that uh our r3 or rapid response research continues we've got some calls this week with a couple more retail chains where we're looking at leveraging their technologies, their CCTV and others, sensors and ways to evaluate, interview their customers and their employees as well around curbside, enhancing that so that it's safer, more efficient, and cost-effective. Again, looking at low and no touch with other transactions, buy, return, pickup, and so forth in the stores. So there's more to

come on some of the R3 efforts that are going on there. We belayed the LPRC Innovate call of our advisory panel this week for what's going on in the world right now as well. We're looking at how super spreaders might be the concern we talked about before and listened to Dr. Southwick of University of Florida's Infectious Disease Group. He's out of the Emerging Pathogens Institute, we mentioned. He's updated with Kevin on our team, and they've come out or are coming out, I believe, this week with the report, an updated bullet point report on getting back in action and thriving despite COVID or any other emerging pathogens. But the idea of super spreaders and the distance that we need to do to take to reduce them, the probability of somebody getting

an infectious or certainly not only infectious but serious dose onboarding that is going to be critical to all that test and trace. That's all trying to be implemented uh by the primarily as always at the county level um but then also at the state levels uh which are the normal places to handle infectious diseases so that's going to enable us to do a lot more i know here at uf they've patented or get ready to release a home kit test that just takes minutes and it just involves somebody um submitting onto a to a paper putting in a tube shaking it up and then waiting a few minutes for the response so we're not going to have um as much probing and things going on down down the road um we'll end up having another phase three cluster call probably in about two weeks with our retailer members as we continue to emerge from that. Switching rapidly over to what, again, started out as some peaceful

demonstrations to looting, riots, and other opportunistic crime. The restaurant LPSA has come out with some tips for restaurants in this crisis. LPRC, Corey Lowe on our team pulled together every resource he could find yesterday. We all contributed to some editing on that and are continuing today as we record this here on June 2nd, looking at how we can,

what are some quick action tips to secure those places and spaces. We know that if the bad guys don't know something of value is there or they can't get to it, we're down the road, then we go from there. We're trying to collect the data there from state, federal, and local law enforcement on what they're seeing as far as the tactics. Again, from the outside agitation groups that are coming in, whether they're named such as RevCom or Antifa or Boogaloo and things like that, but who the groups are, how they operate and communicate, as well as the opportunistic crime groups that have been observed. And now they're learning how

they form up and go where they know law enforcement will not be because they're tied up with the demonstrations and tied up with the looting and riots that are occurring. So there's a lot going on there. I guess the FBI is refocusing some of their people on the Joint Terrorism Task Forces to help support in this effort and to understand, again, how these groups are operating. in this effort and to understand, uh, again, how these groups are operating, um, this, because this situation can be more persistent than normal, uh, because of the outside agitation groups, um, and the rapid staging we saw across the entire United States from brick staging to, um, and other projectiles to flammables and even breaching tools and so on.

And so stay tuned on that as we have more on it today at 1 p.m. Eastern. We're going to have our first LPRC looting and riot cluster call. I know we've got over 20 chains so far committed to get on the call, and we're going to get some briefings from a few people to start off that call. So we'll be back and put out our report probably this week, probably tomorrow, which would be Wednesday, the 3rd of June. So with no further ado, let me get over to Tom Meehan. Tom, take it from here. I certainly think it's important to be reminded that COVID is still very much here while a lot of states are into phase two, starting phase two. It's important to be reminded of that. And when I think about some of the civil disturbance, some of the things out there, all of the things that we've worked so hard for to keep social distancing in a matter of nights. We have extremely large groups gathering, some with masks, some without. And additionally, our first responders, police and fire have to,

again, get very much more involved and intimate with folks. So certainly kind of a statement that doesn't need a lot more than it's a very interesting and certainly unprecedented times. You know, prior to this podcast, Reid and I were just discussing how, if you really think about it in, you know, in modern time, even if you get back to the late 60s, the level of civil disturbance today is very different. And I think, you know, this is where I'll lead into some of the technical side of it. The And I think, you know, this is where I'll lead into some of the technical side of it. The suggestions that I would make, and this is going to be a lot more suggestions of things that I'm seeing and some facts behind it is,

I think are kind of pertinent with both COVID-19 and some of the civil disturbance and things that are going on is, you know, now it's time to kind of dust off your social media or open source intelligence monitoring program. I think the majority of retailers have some sort of formal social media monitoring program. I would strongly urge everybody here that this is the time to really, really bolster that program to identify where things are happening. Reid actually mentioned the bricks, these pallets of bricks being laid down by these organized protesters. There are a lot of social media channels that can tell you ahead of time. And I'll use Herald Square as an example. There was a lot of posts. I happened to be traveling yesterday and had some windshield time. I was a passenger for 12 hours in a car. And there were a lot of posts that if you were a retailer, you could identify where these bricks were ahead of time. People were posting, oh, I saw this on the corner of X. And lo and behold, later that evening, these stores were vandalized. So it could be an indicator. And I say could,

because this is happening live, right? That that's a story you need to board up and take extra special attention to, or potentially change your video monitoring habits. And the really interesting part here is most of the monitoring processes will happen the same way as the COVID-19. One of the things, the way you would monitor COVID-19 on social media, one of the things that came up yesterday was you now have this surgence of distraction type social engineering where your social engineers are taking advantage of, especially on the retail front, now is the time I'm going to attack the retailer to try to get into their infrastructure because if they weren't distracted before with COVID-19 and trying to figure out how to open,

how about we go after it hard? So we will see, and we have seen already, an influx of cyber attacks because, let's face it, our resources are more strained now than they have been in really any documented time. So it's a good reminder there. It's also a good reminder to double-check your physical security hygiene. And I know that at some points it's a good reminder there. It's also a good reminder to, you know, double check your physical security hygiene. And I know that at some points it's too late for this. And we talked about infrastructure challenges, but now is the time to make sure that, you know, all of the things that you have in place are working. And I think video and remote infrastructure is, you know, to observe and report, you know, to get that video to law enforcement to run through.

to observe and report, you know, to get that video to law enforcement to run through. I happened to see a couple of videos yesterday in real time. I was live actually with a customer and saw the level of organization behind these attempts and this looting. These videos I saw were not groups of protesters. The videos I saw were not groups of protesters. They were people driving up to locations with U-Haul trucks and flatbeds and breaching doors. These weren't groups of people facial recognition. It's a stark reminder of how some of these technologies that pose privacy concerns are the only technologies that will be beneficial at the end. And I say only in an absolute form, so I don't want to overstate that. Obviously, it's not the only. But as I was watching some of these videos, there were a lot of unmasked individuals. And not for business reasons, I thought, wow, this is a perfect example of where, you know,

computer vision would help because you have an unmanned store and hundreds of people inside of it. And later on the, the level of video you have will really play, play heavily. So good, good reminder to just double check your infrastructure remotely, take a look at where you're at. And then something that is kind of more of a tip is there are a lot of services that are relatively inexpensive. So when I think about social media monitoring, I know a lot of people that were peers of mine and personal friends of mine do a lot of in-house social media monitoring. And if anybody's read my book or heard me talk

about this, nothing's free. So when you're doing it in-house, you're tying up a resource. or heard me talk about this, nothing's free. So when you're doing it in-house, you're tying up a resource. There are a lot of really great tools out there that are available. And there are a couple of tools that are non-traditional retail related, like firstresponders.net and Breaking News Network,

where you can subscribe to real-time 911 services to actually identify what something's going on. I'd recommend people looking into that or looking into a formal social media monitoring program. And while I hate to say that you'll kill two birds with one stone, now you have a way to create an ROI with monitoring your COVID situation and this civil disturbance situation. So not the typical kind of update that I would normally give, but I will tell you that I was watching some things live yesterday that for me being 44 years old, I've never experienced anything like it. And while I was young during Rodney King, I remember that very well. I was

responsible for an organization in asset protection when Ferguson happened. And this to me is not like those two things. Certainly COVID plays a role. And again, before I turn it over to Tony, Reid and I were talking about in the late 60s, there was a flu epidemic, a pandemic that was actually statistically larger than COVID-19. But I think a lot of people have short memories. And there were also civil disturbance then, but the civil disruption was so different then. I think social media fuels it. I think the fact that everybody has high-deficient video cameras fuel it. But I also think that allows us as security professionals to do some of that corporate security intelligence and gather information where groups are going. and gather information where groups are going. And I'm sure most, if not all the listeners have some level of program in place. Now would be the time to boast to it. It'll set you up for the future.

It'll give you more information. So, you know, I think it's a stark reminder to, you know, everybody keeps safe. I know we say wear our mask. You know, we said that last time is now it's just wear a mask and be extra special vigilant. And I actually was in the Philadelphia market driving yesterday through and, you know, what heard people reminding their their folks to not be engaged, to leave this alone.

Don't get yourself in danger. And it's a really good reminder of that, you know, us as asset protection professionals want to save and keep our house safe. But when an event like this occurs, it's really important to get yourself and your associates to safety. And with that, I'll turn over to Tony. Thank you very much, Tom. This is indeed very, very surreal time. 2020 is shaping up to be quite a different kind of year. It's not the perfect vision year that everybody thought was going to deliver the future of retail many years ago and writing about it. So I think these are really tough times. The things that

Reid and Tom have just spoken about in terms of the violence and the rights that are going on. It's very, very important that we all stay engaged in terms of listening to these podcasts and get the latest information, get engaged with LPRC and the different groups to understand how retailers are responding, and also pay attention in terms of what's happening in the background of retail, because this too will pass and we need to be ready in terms of what's happening in the background of retail, because this too will pass and we need to be ready in terms of not just with the violence that is taking place right now, but also the COVID-19 that is also taking place at the same time. So how do we understand what is happening around these two major issues right now? And what does retail look like on the other side? So while Reid and Tom focused a little bit in terms of the violence and the near-term stuff,

I'm going to today continue to share some of the other data that's in the market and how retail is changing. So let me start with the top five websites that experienced the most traffic growth in May. And it gives you an idea in terms of what consumers are doing. So they continue to shop online. So the number one site with the most site was a site called Twilight Time. They sell classic films and they were up 798%. The second one was GNR Merchandise. And they actually are a band, a music band, Guns N' Roses,

and their merchandise sales at the site's activity was up 705%. And then the third was Best Buy Furniture because consumers are remodeling. And interesting that four of the top 25 sites were roller skater sellers. So there's a lot of activity going on online in terms of different things Four of the top 25 sites were roller skater sellers. So there's a lot of activity going on online in terms of different things that consumers are buying online. Also, in terms of M&A, that's slowing3 2009 in terms of acquisitions that were going on in the retail space. Worldwide, there were only 123 total transactions. China continues to recover out of their crisis.

The projections right now are for sales in China to decrease 4%, which is an improvement from the previous negative forecast of 4.5%. And next year, they're only expected to grow 3.5%, which roughly they were growing 6% to 8% before. And these numbers do exclude restaurants and catering. So you'll see different numbers. But China is coming back, but not coming back as strong as everyone is actually expected. In terms of U.S. consumers, they are starting to also go back into stores, again, with the current crisis that we're talking about in terms of violence being an exception. But department stores is one of the places that are going less. In fact, 71% are saying they'll shop less at department stores and malls, and they'll spend less. So right now, the data is saying that they'll spend about $100 less in malls and large department stores, And that actually is more than what they'll spend less at dining out and on fuel.

What was interesting to me this week is how, again, in going back to China, how they're ramping up, how their companies are ramping up social commerce and using social media or live streaming to actually do a lot more of it. And the more active company of that is Alibaba. actually do a lot more of it. And the more active company of that is Alibaba. And Alibaba is actually hiring 100,000 online influencers right now around the world to ramp up their original content to get people to shop on their AliExpress platform. Their plan is in three years to actually have a million people, a million people, influencers selling online. And again, this is at the international scales outside of China.

And they're going to focus on 100 key opinion leaders who will each earn about a million bucks annually, basically pushing the product. Initial focus is going to be in Europe. They're going to do it in English. They already have, I was surprised, they're already in 200 countries, Alibaba, in terms of international operations. And their users are primarily under the age of 35. That's really their target base.

So worldwide, they have about 960 million, 180 million of those are international. And live streaming was extremely successful. And live streaming is really QVC on steroids in terms of doing a lot of entertaining selling. That was up 88% for them in the last quarter. in the last quarter. Going back to COVID-19, a lot of data is coming out in terms of how expensive it is to outfit stores. Costco reported that they spent an extra $283 million in the most recent quarter to basically outfit their stores for COVID-19. Amazon said they spent $600 million and are reserving $4 billion for this quarter, which really impacted their earnings in the last quarter.

In terms of the masks that was brought up by Tom, in terms of who wears masks, so what percent of consumers are wearing masks outside home for the week of May 10. So in the US, in China, it's 78%. In the US, it's 67%, which was a high number. I was surprised by that. But that's a spike from 39% for the week of April 12. In Germany, it's 56%. And in the UK, it's only 13%, which actually was a shocker for me. A lot more focus on contactless commerce. And that includes what would read was brought up on other calls, which is curbside pickup, which is up 36%. And we're doing other things like we're doing more doctors virtually that's up 27%. And we're doing a lot more food deliveries, which are up 23%.

And then finally, there was a study that this week that actually I wrote a blog about, which is the most powerful, the most valuable brands in retail 2020 was just published. And it was published actually during COVID-19. And these are the retailers that are actually positioned. And the number one most valuable brand in retail worldwide is Amazon. And actually, they're far ahead of everybody. Number two, I mentioned it in this summary, it's Alibaba. Number three is McDonald's. Number four is Home Depot.

And number five is Louis Vuitton. And branding, once we get through the crisis of the violence, is going to become even more important in terms of retailers surviving and thriving. So that's a little bit of the data that's going around retail, why we deal with not just COVID-19, but also all the other issues that U.S. retail is dealing right now. And with that, I'm going to turn it over back to Reid. Thank you, Tony and Tom, for both of your important insights as we go through normalcy, which now not only includes COVID-19 pandemic,

but now we're also talking about some pretty widespread looting and other violence targeted against retailers, their places, but also their people. So with no further ado, I'm going to thank Tony D'Onofrio and Tom Meehan and Kevin Tran, our producer. Thank all of you all. Please be safe. Please send us your ideas, your questions, comments, and suggestions to kevin at lpresearch.org. As we continue to strive to make Crime Science Podcasts ever more usable and actionable by you and your teams, your colleagues, and cohorts. So from Gainesville,

Florida, this is Reed Hayes signing off. Thank you. Thanks for listening to the Crime Science Podcast presented by the Loss Prevention Research Council and sponsored by Bosch Security. If you enjoyed today's episode, you can find more Crime Science episodes and value information at lpresearch.org. The content provided in the Crime Science podcast is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for legal, financial, or other advice. Views expressed by guests of the Crime Science podcast are those of the authors

and do not reflect the opinions or positions of the LPS Prevention Research Council.