LPRC - CrimeScience – The Weekly Review – Episode 156 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tom Meehan & Tony D’Onofrio

Episode Date: July 27, 2023

This week on a new episode of CrimeScience, our hosts discuss industry wide initiatives that the LPRC is hosting and participating in to enhance collaboration across retailers and with law enforcement, rising retail sales in June especially in restaurants and gasoline, with the weakest sectors being in C-stores and department stores, and strongest being in online sales. Listen in to stay updated on hot topics in the industry and more! The post CrimeScience – The Weekly Review – Episode 156 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tom Meehan & Tony D’Onofrio appeared first on Loss Prevention Research Council.

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Crime Science. In this podcast, we explore the science of crime and the practical application of this science for loss prevention and asset protection practitioners as well as other professionals. All right. Welcome, everybody, to another episode of Crime Science Podcast. This is the latest in our weekly update series, and I'm joined by co-host Tony D'Onofrio and our producers Diego Rodriguez and Wilson Gavarino. And we're going to take a quick trip around crime prevention. And the news is beyond busy locally and at the state level.

But even at the national level, we see probably pretty unprecedented coverage of retail crime and for a pretty sustained time period. unprecedented coverage of retail crime and for a pretty sustained time period. You know, it feels like for now, for several months, if not a year or more, you know, organized retail crime and all its different aspects continue to receive huge coverage in the media. And we are, I wouldn't say besieged, but we're certainly constantly being reached out to by media sources at all different strata. And we try and cooperate and provide objective information where we can. There are probably some that we probably don't take on. Feels like an ambush, if you will. And we always want to be cautious about everybody in the life scouted agenda. We certainly

know that media people do as well, being humans. So but we're very careful that what we contribute, if you will, on the record or off the record, I guess, is based on some sort of logic and certainly research. So that's where we'll keep everybody posted on that. I know that some of you saw CBS News Sunday morning, ran that episode where their team was in our labs. We've got another couple of national media sources coming our way to spend some quality time in the labs. In that case, we're still very careful and cautious to do things as well as we can. But it can allow a deeper dive and a deeper and broader understanding of very complex and dangerous issues that rather than just topical treatments in an attempt to get ratings or clicks or sell

advertising or whatever that happens sometimes, just helps people better understand and explain, that happens sometimes just helps people better understand and explain, always with an eye toward increasing commercial and public safety. So that's where we are. I think one thing we would put out there is we're always excited to work on research of different types. I've mentioned before, there is a real strategy here, believe it or not. And what we like to do is get an overall snapshot of what the retailers believe they're up against, what their losses are, as they describe that, and what they're doing to address those losses briefly, anyway, in their description through the National Retail Security Survey. Again, since 1990-91 time period, we've had some level of involvement. And for the last two years, our team,

led by Dr. Corey Lowe, who does 99% of the work on it, is working on that with the National Retail Federation and trying to get the best look overall about what retailers are dealing with from a theft, fraud, and violence situation. His own ARC study is also underway. We've now got double-digit retailers that have contributed significant data around their incidents down to the store level so that we can put together and have already started doing that, James Martin, leveraging that information, putting it into ARC GIS mapping component so that everybody can drill in and out and understand what's going on at that level. And that adds so much depth and richness to the critically needed information from the NRSS. And then the ORC across the state survey,

that's also underway. We're getting multiple insights from those that are out there in the field or directing those in the field around organized events. Those serial offenders that are out there individually or in groups attacking and affecting stores primarily through theft and a lot of fraud and in some cases aggression extending into real violence. So I think with these types of industry studies, we get a better and better picture of what's happening, but we know with ARCS, we can get down into the weeds and start to take some of the action that's needed based on the information and based on the visuals that you're able to put together and understand. And then we know that what we're getting ready to do with the Safer Places Lab in Port St. Lucie, the Eastside Initiative Westside, and then coming up Atlanta and so forth, that's going to help us put things into real action where we not in a center, but they're co-located again. They're co-located in open centers, whether strip or lifestyle.

And then, of course, in the enclosed centers or malls. So the Port St. Lucie initiative kicks off this week. We've got three Walmarts. We've got Port St. Lucie Police Department fully on board, as well as being. We are now going to be able to activate this with LVT live view technologies, donating for the test period. Three brand new tricked out, if you will, mobile protective units. These platforms with multiple sensors that we've customized, and with the markings looking like a Port St. Lucie police vehicle. We've also spent quality time identifying where we'd initially like to place them to

maximize visibility under the see, get, fear model to affect the green shopper or employees' behavior so they feel and are safer in order to affect the decisions made by the red actor that's there to victimize those people in place that we want them to first notice these so we're placing them so you can see them from the roadway out front so that you can see them from both and there are only two entry exit points into one of the three stores that we're treating the other two will serve as control locations so that they're maximally seen or likely to be seen by anybody on foot, bike or in a vehicle approaching from either entrance. And then, of course, affecting the behavior in the parking area, that zone four, as we call it.

So you can see as people approach or observing or looking for in a predatory way, or they just are opportunistically taking advantage of something, we want to affect those choices if possible as they move from zone 5 beyond the parking lot into 4, as they're moving into 4 and into a particular area in that parking area.

So this store happens to have a liquor store that's somewhat separate. It has, of course, a grocery area, a food area. It's got a general merchandise, and it's got a garden area. So we're looking at the behavior there and trying to affect the green and red and, again, be able to study and understand uh how to better treat a dose in this case to affect decisions by the green and red actors reduce crime in other words attempts that are taking place there and so with the data on what all has happened there and the other two store locations uh for the last uh year and a half and that from as well as from that perspective calls for service and arrests

made by Port St. Lucie Police Department, or if it happens to be the St. Lucie Sheriff's Office, getting that idea. And then after we treat the one location with three platforms, now do we see a change in behavior of all types, including arrests and calls for service, of course, including reported incidents by the retailer? That's objective one. arrest and calls for service, of course, including reported incidents by the retailer. That's objective one, see if there's a measurable change in behavior to the good. Again, Corey and James Martin, one of our research scientists as well, studied under the program the Access Task Force that was put together by LVT with multiple retailers

in Paducah, Kentucky and Opelika, Alabama. We were looking at reported crime calls for service and arrests made in a variety of areas across those two communities. And then those areas were treated, if you will, by LVT platforms, those mobile protective units, and are able to measure what happened there. And so afterwards, we're no control sites in this case, but it was sort of a quasi-experimental design that can have, you know, strong enough design to make some inferences. And we did see the expected change in behavior. And some of the data were collected by online sightings. It was a unique research method that Corey and James

implemented here on top of measuring reported crime by the retailers and by the law enforcement agencies getting an idea of what the citizenry thought and were saying and getting their feedback on the look, the location, even the objective of having those platforms. So you'll see that going on in Port St. Lucie, where it's even more controlled before and after compared to a little more of an experimental design with a slightly, you can make slightly, excuse me, make slightly stronger inferences from any behavioral changes we might see. In the Eastside initiative now, we've got eight retailers on board,

as I mentioned, and the Gainesville Police Department. And you can see a pattern here where we're trying to leverage law enforcement and individual but grouped together, excuse me, co-located retailers to get a better picture strategically what's going on to understand the crime patterns and then implement treatments, to understand the crime patterns and then implement treatments, work on dosing options, and try and see can we make strong inferences about better and better ways to do things. But also in this case, we go beyond, hey, did this treatment, this intervention create the expected change? And then also, by the way, for how long was that sustained? Just like two pain relievers only have a certain duration of action after that onset of action and a peak effects.

How long is it going to last? So we want to find those types of things out. We also want to know what does the retailer know that law enforcement doesn't know and vice versa? And where do they overlap? How do we improve the picture for both to make better decisions? You'll see that also not only in Port St. Lucie, but happening in the Eastside Initiative here to create clearer decision-making pictures strategically, to understand crime dynamics,

as well as measure the effects, the results of what happens when we do certain things. And then finally, we also have, in this case, the objective about better sharing, as well as part of that. And that's going to the sharing is not just sharing information about crime and events and concerns overall, but also in the heat of the moment. But also, how do we share cost? We're going to place some treatments in a parking lot that's shared by two different retailers, some treatments in a parking lot that's shared by two different retailers, two different brands, and see ways that they can share costs and benefits of that. How do we better place cameras that provide not just better protection, for example, or other devices for that retailer's

site, but also they could maybe do things to augment so that they can help their neighbor and vice versa. The neighbor can do things differently to help them collectively. So that collective efficacy is what we're shooting for. It's not just a residential criminology concept, but a commercial one. So a lot going on here. That's giving you some idea, hopefully, about what's happening. A culmination of 23 years of the LPRC and a whole lot of criminological research over the years by our team and others across the globe to make the rubber meet the road. We'll get into more and more detail as we move along. I wanted to mention, obviously, the fact that Impact 2023 version coming up that first week in October, go to lpresearch.org to register. There's nothing

like it. This isn't just talk. This goes talk and tactical. You're going to be in the in the field, in the labs, in the classroom or in the big groups, in the hallways, on beautiful campus, working through issues and trying to better understand ways through research that we've found already and that we want to plan for the next round of research as well to affect decisions, reduce problems, create safer and more profitable places. So look for that coming up as well. A lot going on around the labs. We've had recently major retail corporations coming in to spend a day whiteboarding with us. More to come. We've got at least four that I know of coming in. We are constantly having our solution partners in. We're excited about that. Also, some of the research that's going on today, yesterday, and tomorrow, we've got PhD students working on different smart device and robotics

options in our labs from the University of Florida College of Engineering's industrial systems engineering class with Dr. Hu and his team. So a lot, a lot happening. And I'll keep everybody posted. We're also going to take a look in the future at store closures and some of the research the team's doing there. So with no further ado, let me turn this over to Tony D'Onofrio. Tony, take it away. Thank you very much. And, Reed, really great updates. Great to see here about all the great things that are going on. And I have signed up for Impact.

I'm looking forward to it. I think it's going to be spectacular this year with everything that's going on. First off, and building on that, I want to congratulate this podcast team on being named a top 100 podcast by Tinkers 360 for the first half of 2023. So thank you, Reed. Thank you, Tom. And thank you, producers Diego and Wilson. It's been an amazing run. We're already at over 155 episodes. And I can see now that the work is being recognized. And I can see now that the work is being recognized. And I see it every week when I post these podcasts on LinkedIn.

We get thousands of impressions. So it's good to see. Nice job, everyone. Let's keep on rolling. And I'm actually having a really good week. I was just named by the Retail Technology Innovation Hub as a top 100 retail technology influencer for 2023 so it's been an amazing uh actually few days so but let me switch topics through some news and retail news and i'm going to go to cmdc which said that usa retail sales rose one percent in june slightly better than the 0.9 estimate the The numbers are not adjusted for inflation,

which rose 1.3% on a monthly basis, indicating that retail sales overall then were slightly negative. Gasoline stations, online sales, and bars and restaurants were some of the biggest contributors. When you strip it down, though, if you look at some of the analysis done by the IHL group that they posted on Twitter, the weakest sectors in June to date, so in the first six months, are convenience stores, which had negative sales of 12 percent, over 12 percent, department stores, negative sales just over 1 percent, and especially hard goods, which were negative at 0.6. But that's before inflation.

When you factor inflation, convenience really had a bad six months. They were down 28%. Department stores, especially hard goods, are down nearly 5%. With inflation factored in, the sectors that are doing well, they're actually for the first six months in the green. And these are the hot sectors, our drugstores, which are up nearly 4 percent. Restaurants are over up over 4 percent and online is up nearly 4 percent. That's after factoring inflation.

If you wrap it all up and you look at the total for the first six months, factoring inflation, we're down 3%. So we have some work to do, just over 3%. We have some work to do in the second half. Switching topics, because I track this a lot, let me summarize some research from Brand Finance that was actually reported in Visual Capitalist on who are the top 100 most valuable global brands. Brand finance examines about 5,000 companies across 38 countries. And broadly speaking, a brand's value represents the allocation of a company's earnings that are linked to the brand.

So number one this year is Amazon. Amazon ranks number one globally. They have a brand value of nearly $300 billion, and they are a market leader, of course, in online sales, but they also have a very profitable AWS web services business. Apple came in second at $298 billion, but it actually fell in value from the previous year because of supply chain disruption, labor market constraints, and slower forecasted revenue. Other big tech made up part of the top five and in the top. So Google was number three, Microsoft was number four, and Samsung was number six. And in fact, big tech was the number one sector with the highest brand value overall in the companies around the world at value at $891 billion.

And that includes, of course, companies like Apple, Microsoft, Samsung. Interesting, retail is number two. So retail has brands that are valued, come out number two in all that at 690 billion. Media is number three. And then finally, the top five fastest-riding brands in 2023 were BYD, ConocoPhillips, Maersk, LinkedIn, and Christian Duar. Switching topics again, interesting what's happening to the world economies, and I always like to track this and see how we're doing.

So in 2022, and this is according to Visual Capitalist, in 2022, the number one economy in the world is still the USA, followed by China in number two, and Japan is number three. By 2050, it'll switch. China will be number one, US will be number two, and number three will be India. So Japan drops even further. And even more interesting, by 2075, the number one economy in the world will still be China. India moves to number two, and U.S. moves to number three. The data was published again in Visual Capitalist, and it's from a report from Golden Sacks that looks at global economic balance and power. And finally, I'm going to end on Twitter.

Last week, I talked about threads, and threads became the fastest growing online services, reaching 1 million users in just one hour and 100 million in just five days. And remember, I mentioned earlier that chat GDP reached 1 million users in five days and 100 million in two months. Threads, remember, also is a competitor to Twitter, and it was, again, the fastest online services to reach both the 1 million and the 100 million mark. But unfortunately, it didn't hold up. Fifteen days after its launch, Threads has now dropped by 75 percent, according to LifeMade, in terms of engagement. One of the main reasons, of course, is that for threads, is that really they're not sure exactly

what they want to do with it yet, and they are targeting different audiences. Over the years, Twitter has become known as the place for news and politics, where personalities, journalists, celebrities, athletes all discuss it um and instagram and and meta and other meta platforms have been shying away from politics and to focus more on images and videos and really that's not the market that twitter is after so we will have to see what elon musk does now that he's just rebranded it all. It's no longer Twitter. It's now just X, and X stands for everything. So two weeks ago, I did a survey on LinkedIn just for fun,

and I asked who's going to win the real-time information feed awards that is going on. 76% of the people that voted in my audience said it was going to be Twitter. 24% said it was going to be Threat. So 15 days into it, looks like the audience was right. Twitter is back in terms of being the real-time information feed machine. So that's the news this week. And with that, let me turn it over to Reid. Thanks so much, Tony, for all those great insights. And we want to appreciate you all out there for tuning in. Please check out some of our other past crime science podcasts. You hear this all the time.

Please rate us and review us. You know, it's a, as you heard Tony say, it's twice now an award-winning podcast, and we're excited about that. And one of the more frequently listened to particularly in this space um but i think all of us learn more and more by listening to podcasts and we're trying to continually curate a better experience and so we've said this before we've got one recorded uh with a special guest we've got more that we're going to be lining up um to make it to mix it up to get you more information from more

different types of sources and people with different perspectives, backgrounds, and expertise. So, and again, stay tuned. We want to encourage you, if you or your organization is looking to visit the LPRC labs at the UF Innovate Hub on the UF campus. We'd like to invite you to reach out to us at lpresearch.org. Try operations at lpresearch.org. If you're interested or you want to attend LPRC's 2023 Impact Conference, again, the same way. So everybody stay in touch and stay safe. Thanks for listening to the Crime Science Podcast presented by the Loss Prevention Research Council. If you enjoyed today's episode, you can find more crime science episodes and valuable information at lpresearch.org. The content provided in the Crime Science Podcast is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for legal, financial, or other advice.

Views expressed by guests of the Crime Science Podcast are those of the authors and do not reflect the opinions or positions of the Loss Prevention Research Council.