LPRC - CrimeScience – The Weekly Review – Episode 165 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tom Meehan & Tony D’Onofrio

Episode Date: October 26, 2023

LPRC Lab’s have new visitors, this week our hosts discuss the engagement with new and senior members! Also this week, our team looks at the use of TikTok in retail sales, the LPRC’s spotlight on the Today Show, and the great momentum from IMPACT. The hosts also go into a recap of the latest AP/LP news and industry conference takeaways. Listen in to stay updated on hot topics in the industry and more! The post CrimeScience – The Weekly Review – Episode 165 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tom Meehan & Tony D’Onofrio appeared first on Loss Prevention Research Council.

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Crime Science. In this podcast, we explore the science of crime and the practical application of this science for loss prevention and asset protection practitioners, as well as other professionals. Welcome, everybody, to another episode of Crime Science, the podcast from the LPRC and our weekly update series. And here we are on Tuesdayuesday october 24th 2023 and um getting ready to go over we've got uh one of our one of our many members just about 90 retail corporations and we're continually growing here at the lprc part um and And we're excited about all this. One thing that we spent some time last

week and this week, our team working on, and I've mentioned this before, we're working to better affect decisions and the choices and the outcomes by offenders, criminal offenders, or crews of offenders. Working on detect, of course, earlier and more definitive detection of offenders, their behaviors, their choices, their movement through place and time to harm, and so on. And of course, connect. How do we better connect retailers and law enforcement and others strategically for clear planning and targeting and so on for more precise and definitive action, better outcomes, better impact. So what we're doing now is spending a lot of time on DTAC. And with the tragedy unfolding there in Israel and what we're learning about the slaughter there, if you will, was what went right and what

went wrong. We do know that evidently the countryly, uh, the country, the IDF, the Israeli defense forces, the intelligence mechanisms that they've got, uh, Shin Bet and Mossad and the army intelligence and so on didn't seem to put all the dots together. We don't know yet what was connected, excuse me, collected, but we know what wasn't connected. So that's been a big emphasis here. And we've been talking with OSINT organizations and others. We're assembling right now an advisory panel of threat detection and assessment individuals at major retail corporations, those that have detected, those that have not yet, as well as law enforcement and of course some of

the companies or the organizations many many of them that have former federal law enforcement or intelligence backgrounds to help advise on what we're doing there from an r d standpoint but one thing we're looking at is you know sort of the the good and the bad and the breakdown part is you know, sort of the good and the bad. And the breakdown part is, why wasn't something known, or it wasn't known well enough or in time? And the idea is, you know, something, there was a cue or a series of cues that were not picked up on, maybe. Didn't have the right sensors, didn't realize those cues were significant or could be, so we didn't know. Maybe they didn't have AI models that would have enabled with all the noise to comb through all the noise and find some of that. That's important. Or maybe

the cue was there and it was picked up by the sensors or more than one sensor or different mode of sensor, but the analyst or analyst missed it. Or it was detected, it was noted, but it was misinterpreted. You know, that's something we're looking at too. It was detected and noted, but maybe it was underweighted. Okay, well, that's not that important of a cue or clue. Or it was overweight. Another, excuse me, another cue or signal, maybe that was overweight. And that seemed more significant and it maybe seemed to counter what the initial cue might have been, right? That this person is doing this or that group is doing that, acquiring, recruiting, scouting, things like that. Or it was all the above were actually done,

but it was dismissed, maybe by the analyst, maybe by somebody that reported it to, or it didn't make it up the chain. It got put aside. Something else took over and so on. So we're trying to look at those chains of events and understand, better understand how to overcome those in the first place. come those in the first place. So we're very methodically and carefully looking at all the physical, the digital and aural things that we might pick up on by an offender online in the area where they live and move, their activity or behavioral space, what might be important, what are coming together, what does that mean, what are the things that we can do, again, online in the community, working with partners, working with law enforcement? Maybe one retailer picks up this,

another that, and so forth to create much safer environments, places, and spaces. So that's just a little bit about what we're up to on the DTECH stand by on all that. But in our field initiatives, you'll see all this R&D going on there in addition to our labs. We've had some great conversations with OSINT organizations or providers, solution partners. Very good, very productive. So we're excited about the opportunity to meld that in, to integrate this technology, these practices, and this type of problem-solving in with the entire integration chains that we're putting together for reducing theft, fraud,

violence. So, I also wanted to let everybody know it was a great conference out at International Association of Chiefs of Police. A lot of engagement. Thank you, Axon Taser, for making this trip available and creating this opportunity. That allowed me also to have some of the conversations I'm talking about with OSINT and others around DTECT, as well as Effect and Connect. And then also the opportunity to speak for Chain Store Age, a great brand, a great magazine, a great organization at their expects uh where it was really neat working with all the architects and uh building designers and planners uh and so on the construction people that put together the parking areas and the stores and so on for the

retailers and talking about septet crime Through Environmental Design, working through the concepts so they might better apply things. Because the good news is it's best to build in these types of territoriality and natural and informal and formal surveillance and things like that. But you can retrofit. We can make places and people a lot safer just by curb cuts and things like that, parking lot design, by entry, exit, or permeability of the buildings themselves, and of course, sight lines and all these things inside. So, I appreciate that opportunity. What I'm going to do is I've got to run to some meetings, and with no further ado, I'm going to turn it over to Tony D'Onofrio, and then we've got Tom Meehan, and I want to thank Diego, our producer. Tony, if you would, take it away.

And I want to thank Diego, our producer. Tony, if you would, take it away. Thank you very much, Reed. And really exciting to see all the progress that the Loss Prevention Research Council is making across multiple. And great to see on NBC this morning. I saw the post on Twitter. So keep up the great work. But let me start this week with a summary from an article from the local 10 News in Miami. According to their reporting, the Miami-Dade Police Department held a news conference Monday afternoon to announce arrests made in connection to an organized retail theft ring that detectives said, and are you ready for this, caused over $20 million in losses to the retail industry this year. Police said the nine-month RICO investigation involved the police department,

organized retail crime squad, and various law enforcement partners. According to the investigators, they've identified over 87 serial boosters, which led to a first and a second tier. A news release from the Miami Police Department said, as of January 23, to the present, the first tier subject had been paid about $1.2 million. During the same time frame, the second tier subjects have produced approximately $5 million by selling the stolen goods on an online retailer. According to the police, the criminal investigation was operating in different capacity throughout several counties within South Florida, including Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. It was well organized. It was profitable. It is criminal, said the Florida

Attorney General Ashley Moody. This is the modern day mafia. Suspect in one group would just steal the items. They were the professional shoplifters taking everything from security system to eye drops. A group two crooks would rebarcode and catalog the goods. And those in group three would prepare the goods for resale, selling everything online, and making it all look legitimate. Police said some of the several retail victims allegedly targeted by the groups were Walgreens, CVS, Walmart, Publix, Winn-Dixie, Fresco y Mas, Navarro, Home Depot, Lowe's,

Dick's Sporting Goods, Target, Sam Ash, Best Buy, Harbor Freight, The Fiddle Shop, The Guitar Center, Gulf Galaxy, Macy's, BJ's, Costco, various pool supply stores, and some small music business. So for all that hype about this stuff isn't real, $20 million worth of goods being stolen in Miami is a real number. So it's an amazing story. But let me switch to some better news. switch to some better news, and this time we're going to go to some predictions for the retail holiday season from the International Council of Shopping Centers, or ICSC. And as reported by Retail Dive, despite inflation woes, eight in 10 shoppers expect their holiday shopping budget to either remain the same or increase from last year,

according to a new survey of 1,000-plus consumers by the ICSC. The proportion is slightly higher than the 70 percent of consumers at the same last year. The ISE predicts that 87 percent of consumers will shop at brick-and-mortar stores this holiday season, and three-quarters plan to buy their holiday goods online. The organization forecast a 3.8% increase in retail sales during October through December. 17% of consumers anticipate buying online and picking up in-store. Among consumers who are shopping in stores and online, respondents said they plan to spend 41% of their holiday budgets in physical stores and 42% online, the survey found. So holiday season looks like we're still shopping, which is good news for retail.

And let me end this week actually with one of my favorite story. It's actually from the Wall Street Journal, and it's actually titled, Amazon confronts a new rival, TikTok. TikTok made its name for itself in the U.S. as a viral video sharing sensation. Now it's trying to get its 150 million U.S. users to think about as a shopping destination. Amazon, meanwhile, is trying new tactics to maintain its dominance in e-commerce. It has added social elements to its app to entice younger shoppers, and it is building a network of influencers who hawk items on and off its website. As a result, the two companies are on a collision course as divided for the position in a huge

market. Researchers at Insider Intelligence estimate social e-commerce will grow into a $100 billion market by 2025, up from $67 billion this year. To succeed, each company will need to copy the elements of the other success. TikTok is owned by Beijing's China ByteDance. Once consumers trusted it as a safe and reliable place to buy products, the way they already trust Amazon, and Amazon is trying to persuade users to hang out on its app like they do on all those other social media services. TikTok longs its shopping feature called TikTok Shop last month and is

currently selling about $7 million worth of products like hairbrushes, teeth whitening tools, and fallemed sweatshirts with leaves and pumpings every day in the U.S. And it has a goal of $10 million a day by the end of the year, according to individuals familiar with the matter. Amazon Global online store sales, a measure of the products Amazon sells directly was roughly $603 million a day last year. $603 million a day last year. TikTok is spending heavily on building a logistics operation,

pushing Amazon employees and trying to lure third-party sellers by offering them a bigger cut of sales than Amazon, according to sellers. More than 60% of Amazon retail sales come from third-party sellers. So it looks like Amazon is getting a new competitor online in the social media world. I'm actually running a survey on this on LinkedIn. Who's going to win the social media wars using video? Because I do think video will play a bigger role in retail going forward. And I actually picked three. Is it going to be Amazon? Is it going to be Instagram or Facebook?

And they're owned by the same company, Meta. Or is it going to be TikTok? So it'll be interesting to watch. And finally, let me say that this week, I'm actually headed to this afternoon to Washington, D.C. I'm joining a whole bunch of retailers at Retail Crime Day. We're meeting at the NRF on Wednesday and then on Thursday, we're actually going to Capitol Hill to meet with a whole bunch of lawmakers as a joint group to help really attack retail crime more from a legislation point of view. I'm looking forward to this, to meet with congressmen and senators to get their thoughts in terms of how we move some of this legislation, which, again, that first story that I talked about

in terms of organized retail crime, it's real, and we do need better law. And with that, It's real, and we do need better law. And with that, let me turn it over to Tom. Thank you, Tony, and thank you, Reed. Somewhat of a brief update today as I'm traveling, and I think a lot of these updates will be repetitive. I'll start with a couple bulletins that have gone out. a couple bulletins that have gone out. I think it's important to note with these bulletins that these are, some of these are unconfirmed. So the first one, which has circulated throughout the internet, and it does look like a somewhat official document, but it is still unconfirmed, is an internal customs and border protection document. The Daily Kohler News Foundation has released it, and it is a bulletin

advising customs and border patrol agents to be aware of unconfirmed reports of Islamic or Muslim-backed terrorists trying to gain access to the United States from southern borders. There have been a host of these type of bulletins that have been released or information in the last seven to 10 days. This one is in fact, does in fact have an image of a document that again, while I would say is unconfirmed, does in fact look real, as well as I think we shared on the

last podcast or one before that there was an FBI memo that said that there should be a heightened level of awareness for domestic terror types events, either by lone wolf or individual actors. I think with the current situation, it's really important to stay vigilant. The U.S. State Department issued a warning for U.S. travelers traveling to foreign destinations. This warning was a general warning, but it was, very vigilant in tourist areas and large crowds. That was an official warning from the U.S. State Department for U.S. travelers traveling to foreign destinations with heightened level awareness. I think I mentioned in the last podcast, actually, when I was taping it, I was actually in the Middle East. And what I would say is that the conditions were relatively normal from a standpoint of

the folks that I was speaking to. One gentleman said, you always have to be on a heightened alert, you know, when you're in these areas. And that some of these things have been occurring for a long time. And what he was referring to was the level of alert warning that he was seeing and the safety precautions that could be in play. So I think we'll continue to talk about this on the podcast, but without the risk of being super repetitive, I think we will continue to say that it's very, very important for all of us to be aware and do the very best we can to stay safe. And the way that I would say we want to really stay safe is by being vigilant and sharing information and being cognizant of the situations around you.

I don't want to be too repetitive here, so I'm going to move on to the next thing, which is Facebook's parent company, Meta, has been challenged by 42 attorney generals for not safeguarding children. So the Child Safety Act, which basically implies that anybody under 13 cannot access certain things on the internet without a parent or guardian's approval. There's a couple challenges with that. Age verification is very difficult to do for anybody. That's one challenge. And then the other piece here was Facebook has said they've put a lot of safeguards and Instagram, I say Facebook and Instagram, I should say Meta, has said that they put a lot of checks and balances in place to do to help control some of the challenges. We'll probably recall a few years back, probably two years ago, there was a whistleblower who worked on Facebook's safety team and said that Facebook was aware of how the algorithm algorithm was negatively impacting some children. And this was in a direct response to that. And this is unprecedented because it is very rare. And actually, I don't know of any case where 42

state attorney generals get together and challenge anything. So this is a very interesting place for meta to be in, and I think it could reshape some of the safety and or legislation around child safety related to the internet. There are two states today that have, um, taken state laws to enforce age verification. And in some of those situations, what we see is companies essentially, um, for lack of better words, just putting, um, age verification, which causes, which in some cases causes content to not be accessible. It was thought in the past that this only had to do with adult content, but it actually doesn't in this case.

I think it's really, really important to keep in mind that this is not an uncomplicated matter. It is a very complicated matter. The 41 states and 42 AGs states claiming that Instagram and Facebook intentionally caused minors to be addicted to it. So again, this is a tough one. When you talk about all of the things that we're faced with day in and day out, how do you prove that they have some information and what does that mean? I am, as everybody probably knows, an avid social media user. I'm also someone that in my free time spends a lot of time in education of younger folks on the Internet. I have two young children myself and what some of the dangers are here i think we're going to see um some some very very

interesting things that come out of this related to basically you know how the future for online safety for children is so i think um this is definitely something we should stay tuned to. And I think that we'll have a lot of updates in the next six to eight weeks related to this. I don't think or know that, you know, what the outcome will be. And I'm not prepared to make any type of predictions. But what I'm hoping is that it will have a positive outcome for children. I think it will as well. And then switching gears a little bit, and this is coming to be the last story, you know, air travel is always challenging, but there was a

plane that was in between DC and San Francisco, and there was a pilot in the jump seat. So those of you who travel a lot are probably familiar with occasionally seeing a flight attendant or a airline personnel in a jump seat who generally what that is, is, you know, they're getting on that flight to try to get home and they're utilizing their ability to use the jump seat, which is the seat that the flight attendants work in. Well, there was a pilot on a plane who tried to access the cockpit and disable the engines. He was charged with 83 counts of attempted murder. but the really concerning thing here is that this is a pilot. So, um, as we probably all suspect that this wouldn't necessarily be what you expect when you're on a plane,

he was subdued rather quickly without incident, according to the reports. Um, and, uh, it kind of serves as a stark reminder of some of the inherent dangers of air travel and what's going on these days with some of the global events really poses a significant challenge of, you know, knowing who is the bad actor or the good actor. This was a great example of what I would say was as positive as a result that you could get out of a situation like this where what you what we heard was that he was subdued and he was prosecuted but I think it's very very important to state that we are in in a heightened sense of aware you know awareness with the unfortunate events occurring all over the world. And this just exasperates some of that.

So we'll continue to report on those things. I'm going to wrap up with just a reminder for everybody to please, if you're not already, if you're listening to this podcast and you're not already involved in the FusionNet, which is the LPRC's portal, if you will, to help engage in interactive content around major events throughout the U.S. and the world, weather events, civil disturbance, other things that active shooters, other things that are occurring unfortunately on a much more regular basis, I would encourage you to to go ahead and get involved. There is no cost to members. If you're a retail member or law enforcement member it's fairly easy to get involved. And it is a place where individuals can collaborate and share real-time intelligence during an active event.

And this is obviously something that I've been heavily involved in since the beginning of the FusionNet. And it is a place where individuals can openly share some of the events that are occurring in real time and trade intel and try to validate and verify what is occurring. So I can't stress enough the importance of if you're listening to this podcast and a member to be involved. It's very, very easy. You sign up, you can get alerts and see what's going on and exchange information. And it really is for the better of the loss prevention community. As we all know, when we do have civil disturbance, a weather event, or an unfortunate active shooting event, it isn't uncommon that you have misinformation being spread through social media or the news. During these events, it's terribly challenging to get information out and control information. And I'm not a lot of times with misinformation, as I'm sure most of the listeners are aware. Misinformation is not about someone intentionally spreading misinformation and more someone getting information and passing it along. I always equate information on social media to the game of telephone.

And why do I say that is one person shares information with another, and by the time it gets back to somebody, there are a lot of times that that information, unfortunately, is inaccurate. So with that, I will turn it back over. Thank you, Reid. And thank you, Tom, for those excellent updates. Really great week, once again, of things happening at the Loss Prevention Research Council and in the industry in general. I'm looking forward to Retail Crime Week in Washington, D.C., and looking forward

to telling you all about it here next week. So tune in once again. Thank you. Thanks for listening to the Crime Science Podcast presented by the Loss Prevention Research Council. If you enjoyed today's episode, you can find more crime science episodes and valuable information at lpresearch.org. The content provided in the Crime Science Podcast is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for legal, financial, or other advice. Views expressed by guests of the Crime Science Podcast are those of the authors and do not reflect the opinions or positions of the Loss Prevention Research Council.