LPRC - CrimeScience – The Weekly Review – Episode 166 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tom Meehan & Tony D’Onofrio

Episode Date: November 9, 2023

LPRC is all over the Media, this week our hosts discuss the continued growth of the LPRC! Also this week, our team looks at the 5 possible economic disasters, the LPRC is attending the LPM/LPF’s town hall, and their is great momentum from IMPACT. The hosts also go into a recap of the latest AP/LP news and industry conference takeaways. Listen in to stay updated on hot topics in the industry and more! The post CrimeScience – The Weekly Review – Episode 166 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tom Meehan & Tony D’Onofrio appeared first on Loss Prevention Research Council.

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Crime Science. In this podcast, we explore the science of crime and the practical application of this science for loss prevention and asset protection practitioners as well as other professionals. Welcome, everybody, to another episode of Crime Science, the podcast. This is the latest in our weekly update series, and today I'm joined by co-host Tony D'Onofrio and Tom Meehan, our producer Diego Rodriguez, and we're going to talk a little bit about crime and loss and retailing. And we'll start off a little bit here with looking forward. We're looking forward to a few things at LPRC.

One, we'll have our annual LPRC kickoff gathering, typically just over 100 executives in New York City and Manhattan. Historically been at the Bloomingdale's flagship store. Currently still planned for being at the Bloomingdale's flagship store. But due to concerns about more than 105 executives attending, we are looking at alternate sites. We will keep everybody engaged and involved, but that will be January 15th, 2024, New York City, 15th of January, the day after the NRF Big Show concludes, that Wednesday morning, typically around 8, 8.30. And we're always pleasantly, very pleasantly surprised at 8 to 8.30 on that Wednesday morning that we get over 100 executives in there ready to go, ready to brainstorm, work together, and so excited for that.

Coming up in February, the end of February of 24, we will have LPRC Ignite, our winter planning meeting. That's where our board of advisors, that's where our LPRC Innovate Advisory Panel get together this year, the 28th of February in Gainesville on the University of Florida campus between our labs at the UF Innovate Hub and the center. That's a five-minute walk from there. That's got, it's an amazing facility we use for our BOA and Innovate panel discussions and strategy ad as well during the Impact Conference there. So we'll get out more details to everybody on that. Three of our team will be at the LP Foundation, LP Magazine annual gathering down in southwest Florida coming up actually next week, today being November 1st, 2023, on a Wednesday. No, it's supposed to record this on a Tuesday, but we were all very wrapped

up. More distinguished VIP visitors coming through the LPRC labs. So excited about that as well. Some major chains that we all know and love will be coming in. LPRC growth. LPRC growth is amazing right now. We passed the 90th retail corporation member of the LPRC. More to come on that. But we just had Lululemon to name one. So we're very, very pleased and excited that the community is growing and the amount of executives involved, the amount of

chains, the amount of store and data opportunities that we've got access to to do the good work. The Eastside Initiative, those eight stores, we have put together a map. And with that map, we've listed all the interventions that we'll be putting in and starting to work with that group of retailers on what interventions we're going to place or deploy and when and where will that be happening. So a lot of detailed planning.. On Thursday, we've got our monthly LPRC Innovate advisory panel teams call, an hour and 15 minutes, jam-packed, full of updates and information on the Eastside Initiative, Port St. Lucie, upcoming Albuquerque. Atlanta, of course, is on the drawing board, as well as Westside Gainesville. But Albuquerque has been

moved to be equal with the Gainesville Eastside Initiative due to criticality, the issues there, the retailer demand for such a very serious situation. So we'll continue to update on the Crime Science Podcast. I know we've said this before and we've done this in the past. Crime Science Podcast. I know we've said this before and we've done this in the past. We are talking with different people now to have as guests on this podcast to talk with us. We'll be working with different labs coming up, too, from different agencies that we'll talk about later. Some pretty exciting things there. We're working on the strategy, talking a little bit about operational art. Again, what are we going to talk about there? The impact of operational planning to make a strategy come alive and the tactics that are required to do just that. Again,

very detailed planning on the active assailant tabletop that will be the LPRC integrate program. That will be part of our annual Ignite initiative. In this case, February 29th in Gainesville with multiple law enforcement and other first responders involved like Gainesville Fire Rescue and so on. So very excited that should be very realistic. Mike Currier of Verizon Wireless is our retailer lead on that to help with the planning team. But we've got some real experts as well as Mike working on that from these agencies and from emergency operations from the University of Florida who have carried out all kinds of very successful tabletop training exercises due to having huge crowds at UF football games,

basketball games, baseball games, sometimes controversial, controversial speakers that will be on campus, of course, demonstrations and things like that. So they're very familiar with these emergencies as well as, of course, natural disasters. And Gainesville has experienced really six serious hurricanes just in the last decade and a half. So we're very pleased about how that planning is going. It's going to be fairly sophisticated tabletop event with people situated in at least two venues, maybe three, top event with people situated in at least two venues, maybe three, including Emergency Operations Center at the University of Florida, at the UF Innovate Hub, and then another undisclosed location or undetermined location, I should say, at this point. And there may be more.

But it should be fairly realistic for everybody involved. It's primarily a first responder, first line law enforcement supervisor, and then command agency command staff team exercise with the involved retailers working the issue with the balance of dozens of retailers that will be observing and advising. So very unique format. And so we are very excited about what's happening there. We are continuing ongoing active criminal offender interviews at LPRC. We have multiple ones that have been coming through the labs in the engagement lab, working on different shoplifting feedbacks on different options and solution options, I should say, as well as integrated solution sets. So a lot of research there. Our team, the research team at LPRC, are readying for next week. They are going to be pitching three to four research projects that they would like to culminate in presentations

or sessions at the 2024 version of LPRC Impact, that first week in October, which really actually starts in the last week of September. We're planning for a blockbuster 20th, count them, 20th Impact Conference with even more content, better content and everything else. We're looking at other entertainment venues as well as we expand the networking opportunities and so on. So look forward to more announcements around 2024 LPRC impact in the fourth quarter of next year. So a lot to talk about, not a lot of time to talk about it. A lot to talk about, not a lot of time to talk about it. I'm sure you all are seeing and reading about LPRC and multiple news media outlets. We are not soliciting these queries.

They are coming our way, and I mean they're coming more than one a day, sometimes multiple a day our way. So it's very, very interesting and challenging. But at the same time, we hope that we're helping set the proper narrative out there that retailers are, in fact, under siege, that people that work and shop in these stores are fearful, that there is a lot of crime going on, all types of theft, fraud and violence, not just theft. Theft is serious, though, and the effects of theft and the other crimes and what they're theft. Theft is serious, though, and the effects of theft and the other crimes and what they're doing, the people that are in those places and spaces, those neighborhoods, those communities, those enterprises and operations that run them, and the small independent retailers and other enterprises around them. So, a lot to talk about, a lot to do with the media to try and maintain focus and proper narratives and balance out there.

So with no further ado, what I'd like to do is turn it over to Tony D'Onofrio. And I know you and Tom are traveling the world. So, Tony, if you could take it away. Thank you, Reid, for all those great updates. This week I want to focus on a very important new white paper from the Economist Intelligence Unit on the 10 critical risk scenarios for the global economy in 2024. As they state, in 2023, resilience among consumers and a gradual fall in inflation reassured uneasy investors and supported modest global growth. The E-Communist Intelligence Unit expects stable but unspectacular global growth to

continue into 2024 as economic uncertainty recedes and major central banks begin to lower policy rates in the second half of the year. Their white paper explores how geopolitical tensions, the advent of new technologies, and persistent environmental threats could upset the outlook for 2024. So here are the 10 risks to global economies for 2024. risks to global economies for 2024. Scenario one, monetary policy tightening extends deep into 2024, leading to a global recession and financial volatility. This one has a moderate probability of happening, and it would have a high impact.

As explained in major developed economies, the reduction of central banks' balance sheets could result in a sharp sell-off of the sovereign bond market and increased risk premiums in 2024, especially in highly indebted European economies. This could lead to a widespread asset price crash, prompting a global recession. Scenario risk number two, a green technology subsidy race becomes a global trade war. This one also has a moderate probability and it would have a high impact. And as explained, Western economies are rolling out generous incentives for businesses to invest in clean energy technology by boosting domestic industrial capacity and enabling greater competition with China, which is the leader in the production of many green technologies. Scenario risk number three. Extreme weather caused by climate climate change disrupt global supply chain this one has a high probability of happening and it would have a modern impact

climate change models point to increased frequency of extreme weather events so far these have been sporadic and in different parts of the world but they could start to happen in more synchronized matter. Severe droughts and heat waves have already weighted on crop yields, and the return of El Nino could exacerbate weather events and lead to record high temperature in 2024. Scenario risk number four, industrial action spreads disrupting global productivity. High probability of happening, moderate impact. High global commodity prices, continued supply chain disruptions, high fuel prices, and continued currency weakness against the U.S. dollar

for some countries will continue to fuel discontent in 2024 and 2025. Wages have not risen as quickly as inflation in most countries, making it harder for poorer households to purchase basic stables. This could spark social unrest, expanding to small-scale protests and industrial-like action already seen in Europe, the US, South Korea and Argentina. Scenario risk 5. China moves to annex Taiwan, forcing a global decoupling.

A direct coupling between China and Taiwan is unlikely in 2024, owing to the risk to all those directly involved. Nonetheless, tensions are high, and Taiwan's election in January may serve as a point of contention. Chinese military drills near Taiwan, including Chinese incursion into Taiwan's air defense identification zone, raise the risk of a miscalculation that could spiral into a wider incident. And by the way, this China risk has a low probability and would have a very high impact. Scenario six, a change in the U.S. administration leads to an abrupt policy shift, straining alliances. Moderate probability, moderate impact. A new administration could hold up global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions,

step back to support for long-standing alliances, and abruptly withdraw U.S. financial and monetary support for Ukraine, boosting Russia's position in the war. Scenario risk seven. Stimulus policy failures in China lead to increased state control and diminished growth prospects. Low probability, high impact. China's sluggish response to COVID-19 shocks and the subsequent post-pandemic slowdown has shaken confidence in the government's ability to communicate and guide markets.

They break down in signaling increases in the risk that the government, should it be faced with an economic recession, will have to opt for big-bang stimulus rather than rely on a more subtle mechanism to stabilize the economy and markets. Scenario risk number eight, the Israel-Hamas war escalates into a regional conflict. Economists think this is a very low probability, but it would have a high impact. If the military conflict between Israel and Hamas evolves into a long-drawn-out war involving a lengthy Israeli occupation of Gaza. Other state and non-state actors may become involved in sympathy with the Palestinian cause. And they assess that the likelihood of Iran actually getting directly involved into this war is slim, but it could use its influence on proxies

such as Hezbollah in Lebanon to prolong and expand the scale of the conflict. Scenario risk nine. Artificial intelligence disrupts the election and undermines trust in political institutions. Moderate probability, low impact. Global firms and governments have readily become to test and integrate genomes of artificial intelligence into existing platforms and processes. We believe that AI will augment rather than replace human capabilities, presenting an opportunity for freedom to improve productivity.

However, the widespread adoption of AI and its use in social media will raise the risk of a spread of disinformation campaigns via text, imagery, audio and video in the coming years. And finally, scenario risk number 10. The Ukraine-Russia war spirals into a global conflict. Very low probability, very high impact. Russian invasion of Ukraine has fueled underlying geopolitical tension and accelerated global fragmentation. Ruptured relations between Western countries and Russia have raised military risks, including a cyber attack on critical infrastructure, a serious miscalculation on the NATO border with Russia, and an inadvertent incident among one of the growing number of nuclear-armed capable states. So those are the ten risks that the Economist Intelligence Unit sees for 2024. I agree with many of these, although with some of them, I think the risk is even higher than

they state. So interesting to see what will be possible and how we all can work to mitigate these risks as a global population. And with that, let me turn it over to Tom. Well, thank you, Tony, and thank you, Reid. And a lot of activity, and some of it has not made mainstream news. So I wanted to start off with, I'm not going to spend a lot of time on the active shooter in Maine. I think at this point, we've covered that quite a bit. But since that situation, there have been multiple occurrences throughout the United States that I would argue did not get the media coverage that one would expect. There was a man in San Francisco in the North Hill area that set off a pipe bomb. And I

think this week, the individual was apprehended. There isn't necessarily information on a motive, but the pipe bomb set off. He was apprehended in another county and reports that there were no serious injuries. Also in Colorado, an amusement park, there was a man heavily armed with explosives that was found dead in the morning. dead in the morning. Police believe that this individual was going to have a mass casualty event and chose to take his own life as opposed to doing that. Additionally, there have been numerous cities where large protests both against and for Palestine have led to Protests both against and for Palestine have led to spatterings of violence and disruption. So we are and should be in a heightened alert and be aware that right now is a time where, as the FBI had warned just a couple weeks ago, that there is a heightened possibility of a domestic terror event. There also was a bulletin that I mentioned on last week's podcast that the border patrol identified individuals or potential individuals crossing through southern borders

that would have ties to terrorist organizations. All of these things are happening in real time and we'll do the best we can to keep people updated, but it serves as a stark reminder of how important it is to stay vigilant when traveling and when being out and about, as most of our listeners do travel quite a bit. I think it's important to note that.

Additionally, I think one of the things that I would say in all of these events is that, and we recommend this all the time, to go to the FusionNet if you're a loss prevention member, and you'll be able to see some of this information in real time. Also, I think this speaks to what we've talked about before is identifying who to follow on social media to get information. Twitter, or X, formerly known as Twitter, I think there's a lot of great people

that you can follow to get information in real time. You're welcome to follow myself, Tony and Reed. While I think we tend to share the news after the fact, I will tell you that Twitter or X is a platform that I use during an event to help share information so that folks can get it in real time as to get the most up-to-date real-time information though the

suggestion would still be to if you're a Lost Revention member to get involved in the fusion that it is free to Lost Revention members you sign into it you'll have access to it and you'll actually be able to see some of the things that are going on in real time shared by our member pools. So I think it's really, really good. Just switching a little bit to chat GPT or AI, I should say, we continue to see the buzz around AI. The United States government and actually the G6 countries got together, G7 countries got together and made a pledge. Well, this isn't necessarily regulatory. It's a pledge to have safeguards

around new artificial intelligence, not existing artificial intelligence. It's hard to identify what that means for us long-term, but short-term is that the governments are taking action. There was also an executive order by President Biden that had some safeguards put in place for new, again, new AI. And I think it's important when we say AI that, you know, chat GPT and Bing. And if you're on the other side of the Google side or the meta side, generative AI has drawn attention to artificial intelligence.

But this isn't just really about a genitive AI. It's about artificial intelligence in general and software that is being used for defense purposes, for cybersecurity purposes, but there was a lot of language around protection around cybersecurity and AI. So executive orders aren't permanent, so I think it's important to know that this is just one step but it's definitely a space to watch additionally chat gpt plus members can now upload and analyze files on on chat gb natively that's really interesting because what that allows you to do is basically take a pdf without using a plug-in and upload it to analyze it and summarize it.

This is a pretty big deal if you're using this for work because it will allow you to do things that you could not do before, like analyze documents in there, different types of files, PDFs, data docs, and so on and so forth. I think this is absolutely something that you will use in your day-to-day business if, in fact, you use ChatGPT for work. I'm not necessarily suggesting that everybody uses ChatGPT for work because I know a lot don't, but will allow you to take a bulletin for instance or a long document and upload it and get information i really enjoy it for summarizing documents especially in the academic world you can get a really good understanding of what documents are there so i think it's

very very uh good and useful and if you're using chat g be plus you're gonna have it and I assume this will come to Free users at some point will continue to monitor some of the AI news But I think when we talk about it, it will probably be more about risk in addition to Excuse me the executive order the US National institutes of standards and technology, AKA NIST.

If you've heard the NIST standards are creating standards around AI, which will help standardize and safeguard some of us for AI use cases. And before I wrap up, I will just say that we continue. And I know Tony was there present in the capital we continue to see a heightened level of awareness for media and organ and organize you to crime as well as organizations working together to really address this prolific issue that we're all facing in retail so kudos to Tony and team for going out there and congratulations and kudos to all the retailers and other partners that were able to go to the Capitol and help support ORC.

And with that, I will turn it back over to Reed. All right. Thanks so much, Tom, for that good information. Good stuff. Thank you, Tony, for all your insights. Always, always. And I want to thank you all out there, the listener. Thank our producer, Diego Rodriguez. Everybody stay safe, stay in touch. Operations at lpresearch.org. Thanks for listening to the Crime Science Podcast presented by the Loss Prevention Research Council. If you enjoyed today's episode, you can find more crime science episodes and valuable

information at lpresearch.org. The content provided in the Crime Science Podcast is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for legal, financial, or other advice. Views expressed by guests of the Crime Science Podcast are those of the authors and do not reflect the opinions or positions of the Loss Prevention Research Council.