LPRC - CrimeScience – The Weekly Review: Episode 32 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D’Onofrio, and Tom Meehan

Episode Date: November 12, 2020

Singles’ Day in China was created by college students in spite of Valentine’s day to buy gifts for themselves. Now the largest shopping day in the world, learn how U.S. retailers are trying to adopt this atypical holiday, and how it can increase online fraud. On this week’s episode, our co-hosts discuss this and more, including COVID-19 testing updates, consumer behavior changes due to the pandemic, the election affecting buyers, potential net negative gains, protection from anarchy, holiday season shopping prediction trends, the need for brick and mortar stores, and the origins of the word “quarantine”. The post CrimeScience – The Weekly Review: Episode 32 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D’Onofrio, and Tom Meehan appeared first on Loss Prevention Research Council.

Hi everyone, welcome to Crime Science. In this podcast, we aim to explore the science of crime and the practical application of the science for loss prevention and asset protection practitioners, as well as other professionals. We would like to thank Bosch for making this episode possible. Take advantage of the advanced video capabilities offered by Bosch to help reduce your shrink risk. Integrate video recordings with point-of-sale data for visual verification of transactions and exception reporting. Use video analytics for immediate notification of important AP-related events and leverage analytics metadata for fast forensic searches for evidence and to improve merchandising and operations. Learn more about extending your video system beyond simple surveillance in zones one through four of LPRC's zones of influence by visiting Bosch online at boschsecurity.com. Welcome everybody to another episode of Crime Science

Podcast. This is our latest episode or issue of the weekly review. I'm joined by my colleagues, Tony D'Onofrio and Tom Meehan, as well as our producer, Kevin Tran. I want to welcome everybody and we'll spend just a couple minutes as per normal during this year called 2020, minutes as per normal during this year called 2020, looking at what's going on with COVID and other threats to retail and other environments and people that we're trying to safeguard. Infection rates continue to rise globally. At the same time, it still continues to look like the data is showing death rates are not rising at anywhere close to the same level. And again, as we've reported before, across different demographic groups, including age and those of us in the population that might have comorbidities. So we know that there's more and

more research on some of the individuals, some of us that might suffer what some are calling long haulers or long COVID, looking at systems, skin, cardiovascular, lungs, respiratory. What effects are there? Are there ways to mitigate that? We've talked about it before. Some of the therapies that are being used that seem to be successful, more and more being trialed at different phases to reduce coagulation, to reduce inflammation, bradykinin, and cytokine release. In other words,

our own immune system. And, you know, our immune system, we know is, according to all the research and experts that I've been able to listen to, talk to, or read about, our immune systems are incredibly complex and have evolved and co-evolved really with parasites. That's what a disease typically is, is something that's preying on another. And we're the host in this case, but we have strata. And so our complex immune systems are really computational and highly adaptive for everything, bacterial, viral, fungal, and so forth. So we know that's different. Now, some of the newer research coming out just now showing that a typical virus that invades a cell, let's say in this case a human cell, replaces about 1% of its drivers, what's so-called software of that cell. SARS-CoV-2 is the highest that they've ever seen,

replacing up to 60 and even more percent of a cell's operating software. So that accounts for some of the really bizarre and different effects that they're seeing from this disease that SARS-CoV-2 turns into called COVID-19. On the vaccine front, we're looking at now 155 preclinical trials in computer simulations in silico, if you will, as well as in animal models. 22 in phase one. Again, those are looking primarily at safety and dosage. And then phase two trials, larger, looking more now at efficacy as well as safety profiles to understand what might be happening as a result of the injection or pill or in treatment. 10 in phase three now.

Another one has entered phase three trials. Pretty big news this week. The Pfizer team reporting that they were looking for a certain amount of positive cases in their test group, looking at both the placebo arm and the treatment arm. And they surpass that threshold quite a bit and are watching and working with, of course, the overseers of the project. These are double-blind studies, by the way, most of them, so that neither the subject or the participant, whether they get the placebo or the actual treatment, the therapy, don't know what they got, as well as the testers, those giving the injections

and even those analyzing the data. It's only the independent group that knows who's who. So now by running the numbers, it's looking like over 90% efficacy. Bear in mind, again, the typical flu vaccines that dramatically reduce infection and serious disease in populations is around 40%, some are more efficacious than that. And again, the U.S. government, NIH and so on, set a 50% efficacy threshold for COVID vaccines. So if these numbers, the data, continue to support a 90%, that's a pretty good finding. It may be multi-dose and needs to be refrigerated. We've talked about that before, one, two, or three doses.

And does it need to be kept cold to preserve the proteins intact and so forth? So good news on that front that things are continuing to move. Others are getting very close to being at the end and starting to pull the data out. And the independent reviewers, again, the big committees have been meeting. The NIH and CDC committees are advising on these vaccines and the distribution of these vaccines. So that's under heavy planning. We already know that under the administration's Operation Warp Speed, that infrastructure, there's a plan, including the military.

So distribution is out there. Some other interesting news comes from the nasal front, if you will. A lot of research on particles and droplets and how this all works and comes together. And that we know that particles, viral particles, don't just move around. They have to go through droplets that were, you know, a link in the infection chain and that a virus lives to reproduce and as do probably any any entity and so but humans were in this chain and an individual that's infected with COVID-19 from the SARS-CoV-2 virus now is part of that infection chain and the virus is depending on

that individual us to in turn spread it to one or more. The more, the better of other individuals to keep things going. And so we know that's a big part of it. New data are showing that on average, most viruses they see in the droplets, there's normally to be an infectious load or dose. The individual, we need to inhale roughly two to 3,000 particles in the droplets. But with COVID-19,

it's looking like on average, infected patients have only inhaled around 300 particles. So that explains part of the reason why this is a more infectious disease than other viruses. The other concern is that as winter approaches and humidity levels drop, hard for us to determine here, we're in the midst of a hurricane again, or rain bands from a tropical storm, soon to be hurricane here in Florida. But as the humidity drops, that dehydration means there are even more particles per droplet. So if an individual inhales particularly through their nose, 100 or more particles, that's a lot easier to do in a low humidity environment. So stay tuned there. That's why they're calling for snug, fitting, multi-layered masks. That's the best protection to reduce the amount of particles. So again, it looks like the goal is to get well below 300 particles in the droplets that we might inhale and why they're saying that we

need our noses covered up with our masks. And so moving over on that same front, there's more exciting news on a nose spray therapy that's under research right now in animal models and in silico or in other words, very realistic computer simulations, preparing to move to human trials. And the nose spray affects the protein shapes and these things in a complex way. But in other words, the idea here is it's looking like an individual, particularly those that are far away from vaccines or want to supplement or whatever the physicians and scientists advise at that time. One spray might protect 12 to 24 hours and not allow a virus to take root if, again, the person inhales more than 300 particles.

So that's what's going on on that front. Moving over to destructive disorder, where demonstrations are either blocking businesses, customers, and employees, or they're intimidating customers and employees, or become violent or destructive through burning, looting, damaging, tagging, and things like that. What's looking like right now with the election, and I know with Tom, we're going to ask Tom to talk a little bit more about what's going on on the destructive disorder front. But some of the violence, and it looks like there's not been very much, have been where blue and red supporters have clashed rather than one group or the other going and committing a lot of damage. But we'll learn more as time goes on here. And again, many retailers are using the tool that Kenna Carlson and our team developed, the violence tracker tool, as well as getting on the LPRC's FusionNet. So going over to some more LPRC news, IOBSC conferences today. And as we speak today,

this is Tuesday the 10th, and we're excited to have a 90-minute session with the International Organization of Black Security Executives. And myself and my team will be going through what evidence-based and science-based practice looks like, why we do it, get down into the weeds a little bit with some criminology and practice, practical uses of situational crime prevention. And then both Kenna Carlson and Dr. Corey Lowe, two of our research scientists here, will go through some really neat case studies and engage with the group and talk through and share with each other as we move forward together. So for more information on any of these events that we've got, including the fact that 2020 Impact Virtual is totally available now to the public, free of charge, and we've got many, many things that are available and coming available. So with no further ado, I'm going to turn it over to a friend and colleague, Tony D'Onofrio, to bring us up to speed on what we need to know in the U.S. and globally in retailing and elsewhere.

Thanks, Tony. Thank you very much, Reid. Really good information on the state of where we're at with the pandemic and LPRC. So let me start today with 5G. So where are we in the world with 5G? So the top three countries with the fastest 5G are Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Australia. Astoundingly, Saudi Arabia has a speed of 5G of 377 megabits per second. USA ranks eighth right now at 52 megabits per second. It's live in the U.S. in selected locations, but users are connected to it only 21% of the time.

Right now in the U.S., it's only 1.8 times faster than 4G and trails all the other countries I just mentioned. And that's from Statista. Let me move on to the NRF, which released their holiday forecast. This is the NRF holiday forecast. So U.S. consumers will spend about $1,000 on gifts, decorations, and other non-gift purchases. on gifts, decorations, and other non-gift purchases.

On the gift-specific portion, that's going to be down only $9 from last year, which was surprising to about $650. 19% said they typically travel, but will stay home this year. 53% who have changed their travel plans plan to spend more on gifts this year. What do consumers want to start shopping earlier from retailers? So they want sales and promotions, number one, 53%. They want to avoid crowds, 37%, and avoid stress of last minute shopping of 31%.

60% will shop online. 91% plan to take advantage of free shipping. And 44% plan to use buy online, pick up in stores. The top three destination for holiday shoppers this year are department stores, discount stores, and surprisingly, grocery stores. So that's a little bit on the predictions for the holidays. I also found some interesting data in terms of what were the top five pandemics in history. So these are the top five. Number one was the worldwide smallpox epidemic, which killed 500 million people.

And this was way back in history. Number two was the Spanish flu from 1918 to 1919, which killed 50 million people. The Plague of Justinian in the year 483 to 565 killed 30 to 50 million. HIV AIDS from 1981 to present has killed 32 million, and the buponic plague or black deaths from 1347 to 1351 killed 25 million. So just to give you a perspective on that, COVID-19 is currently ranked as number 13 with about a million people as of the date of this study, which was October 13. Also interesting in this, where the word quarantine came from. So quarantine as a concept was invented during the Black Plague when sailors would be forced to stay on their ships for 40 days

to avoid spreading the illness. And the word quarantine comes from the Italian word for 40, which is quaranta. So I did not know that in my culture actually invented quarantine. So let me move on on some data that stresses, again, the importance of physical stores. This data is from Perch Interactive. More commerce is being delivered right now where the store is actually becoming the fulfillment center versus the warehouse. So just to give you an idea, in January 2020, 35% of online orders were filled by stores. That dropped to 24% by April. In July, that jumped back up. So 42% of what is bought

online is actually filled by physical stores. And that gives you, again, the importance of physical stores. And one of the reasons why physical stores are very, very important, again, I've said this a few times while repeated because it's important, they are the most profitable. So a consumer walking into a store shopping, for example, the average margin is about 5%. In a grocery store for home delivery, if the grocer picks up the grocery and then delivers them from the store, then the margin drops to negative 15%. If the grocer picks it up from a dark store, which is a new trend that's emerging, it's negative 10%. For a buy online, pick up, or click and collect, so somebody picks it up,

if you pick it up from the store, it's negative 5%. And if you pick it up from a dark store, it's better, and it's about less than 1%. But it gives you an idea, again, why the emergence now of dark stores, because they are a cheaper way for retailers to actually deliver goods to you that were bought online. This week is actually what will take place the largest shopping day of the

year. It's called Singles Day. It takes place in China on November 11. Last year, Alibaba loaned $38 billion in 24 hours, which compares about $28 billion for the entire Thanksgiving holiday weekend from Thanksgiving all the way to Cyber Monday. So it gives you an idea how big this one day is. Single Day started as a college prank where the singles decided that why should Valentines have all the fun? Let's create a day where we can go buy ourselves a gift. And so November 11 was born because November 11 is one, one, one, one. So it's for single. And really Alibaba took it to the next level as a shopping celebration. So this year they actually did a test run already to see how it would go. And the results are encouraging. In the test run, 100 brands, including Adidas, Estee Lauder, and Nike,

generated $50 million in gross volume in the first 111 minutes of the preview. They also tested live streaming, which I've talked about in the past. Cartier, for example, had nearly 800,000 people on their live stream tuning in. So the event is getting bigger and bigger, more than 2 million products are slated to be revealed during the main event on November 11th this week. So US actually tried to replicate it this year. There was a group of retailers

that created the October 10th holiday, so 10-10. And that did not go as well. Fewer than 60 brands participated, and they have not issued the results, so it must not gone as well. But it is a good idea because these shopping holidays are becoming bigger and bigger. And then finally, just for this audience and the importance of technology, Amazon released this week a new Dash Smart Shelf. So this is a smart shelf that's Wi-Fi enabled that will keep track of what's on that shelf. And if you remove the item, it will basically send you a reminder that you're logged and will send you a reorder button so you can quickly reorder based on what the chef is telling you. So that's a little bit of what's going on in retail and technology.

And with that, I'm going to turn over to Tom. Thanks, Tony. Thanks, Reed. And Tony, as usual, we have some crossover and I'll kind of start with my activities this week because they kind of run through some of the things talked about. So this week I'm going to be speaking at the American Cash Council's North American Conference. It's a currency research organization focused around central banks primarily and then bank partners. And one of the topics I'll be discussing is the consumer behavior changes in relationship to COVID-19. And Tony, you highlighted right on the money some of the margin implications of going from brick and mortar to pickup or delivery of functionality. And one of the things that I'll be talking about and continue to talk

about while the numbers are still very fresh is in some merchant environments, grocery being one of them, but some soft goods environments, when you layer in the margin implications of having to deliver a product that you would have sold the store before, and then add in the increased potential for fraud, there are some organizations while they're not in the grocery world and the apparel world where they're seeing significant increases in online sales, they're also seeing significant increases on fraud, and they're seeing significant decreases in margin, in some cases being net negative.

So it really speaks to the importance of having brick and mortar and really also the importance of being able to still accept cash environments. We, you know, Tony and I actually spoke, I don't remember when, but about, you know, the digital acceleration and contactless payment and some of the things that are occurring. There still are a fair amount of people that want to use cash. The numbers are all over the place, but there's still, you know, a significant number of U.S. folks that are unbanked that need to use cash. And retailers in some markets went and swung the pendulum, not out of fear, but really out of demand to limit cash taking. And I'll use Starbucks as an example, just because it was the one that got the most press around it, where they didn't take cash for a very short period of time, but very quickly realized there was still a large percentage in certain markets that use cash.

So just a reminder, when you're looking at your risk portfolios and you are looking at these online initiatives and these in-store pickups, while I think they're necessary and I think they're important to the growth, it can't be one without the other. It is kind of an argument of chicken with the egg. You have to have a good, complex brick-and-mortar store. Also, and I'm in transit today, so I don't have my notes in front of me, but there was a study that kind of talked to the value of brick and mortar fulfillment, fulfilling from store, and how that helps with margin impacts, controlling delivery costs, speed to customer, and then also from a refund standpoint of avoiding that shipment that has to be touched three or four times. So I don't know that these are new problems related to COVID. I think they're just exasperated because of COVID. Additionally, I'll be talking this week at the Global Retail Crime Summit for Investigators,

and ORC still is a challenge. And the challenge today is, I would say, greater than it was in the past because we're dealing with still some of the law enforcement challenges where they are under-resourced or overtaxed and how do you manage ORC and in certain markets and this is definitely not a specific it's more of a general statement you have departments that have already taken the approach of not making arrests at all because of COVID and that's most departments here but now also with bail reform and all the other things going in, retail crime, regardless of the scale, becomes very, very minimized. And again, it's a general statement.

It's not necessarily by design. It is, in some cases, jurisdictional based on the law, but in other cases, it's just a resource piece. So I'm talking this week about that. the law, but in other cases, it's just a resource piece. So I'm talking about this week about that. And then I'll round out with the FusionNet, which Reid spoke about, which is the LPRC's Virtual Operations Command Center. And what this kind of a virtual SOC, if you will, but a collaboration, a virtual SOC. And although I think, which is great news, that some of the projections of protests were minimized, there were still hotspot markets. So Colorado, Portland, Denver, Colorado, you had Portland, Oregon, you had Seattle, Washington, several different places in Northern California. And there was small beds in New York City, D.C., had some protesting. I would say that based on our reporting and what we were seeing, much, much, much more of a minimal impact,

although Denver, downtown Manhattan, and Portland had significant protesting. Unfortunately, I don't like to say this because it comes off the wrong way. It's actually expected in those markets based on some of the political climate, the law enforcement climate, and some other things. I'm happy to report that what I saw predominantly in D.C. was extremely peaceful. And actually, it was much more, I think we posted some videos on the fusion net, and this is kind of a contrast of media. Media said there were thousands of people gathering in DC and we had actually live feed of people singing and basically you know doing a

very very peaceful protest on both sides both the red and the blue so that's great news and we hope to continue to see that. We'll continue to run the fusion net around election. I think you'll see some weather-related events and probably in the upcoming weeks, we'll talk about what the permanency and what the long-term strategy is with the FusionNet. Is the platform the right platform to use? I think that the platform really lends well to some voice channels. We had daily calls for the members to join, which allowed people to just jump on at a 5.30 in the evening, have a quick conversation, ask a question, and run through. And then we added a few channels that I think are very useful, even outside of a potential civil disturbance or weather event, is where we have an open source intelligence tools channel where people are sharing what's working,

both paid and free. So they paid in free. And one of the great things about the LPRC and what I tell everybody who asks about joining is the participant, when you put something in, you get something out. And I found myself on that channel talking to folks and saying, wow, that's a different way to do it. I've never seen that vice versa. Or yes, I've used that service. I prefer this service. And the great part is you have a very collaborative environment that if you need to take it offline, you just click a

different button and you're having a private conversation because as everybody knows, there are some conversations that just make more sense that way. And we also discussed in the Fusion that some tools of the trade, what tools of the trade, if you will, what laminate was working, what boarding was working, how some of the challenges with historical locations were playing out and where and how to board there,

how to implement video in places where you couldn't. So really, really good information. If you're listening to podcasts and you're a member and you're not, and you haven't at least reached out to look at it, I would encourage you to do so if you have any of the things that fall under that privy, if you're involved in safety or risk whatsoever in your role, it's really valuable. And you really will get a lot out of it. In addition to the benefit of networking with folks that are in a similar industry and you can talk to them in the market to say, hey, what did you do? And you really get into deep routed conversations about identifying challenges that are very market specific, very location based.

So really great stuff. And I can't, I can't thank the members that joined and the Alpair C enough because it was a tough task to do it in the manner that we did. We did very, we got it moving very quickly up and running a lot of participation. And I know early on, there was some conversation about the format of what it was. And I think one of the things that Reid and I and the team talked about on the innovations call is that the method or format isn't as important as the information. And I think what we really found out is that was the case. So without further ado, I'll turn it over back over to Reid to wrap up. I appreciate that. And I couldn't agree more, Tom, on the whole FusionNet issue that the team came together, rapidly stood up initial framework and alpha test, got two retailers to help get some feedback, feedback from you and a couple of others that are very tech savvy and then moved the middle of the heat of, I hate to use the term battle, but evidence-based practice, trying to help define that and deliver and adjust and adapt.

So these things are in adaptive mode, and we're very open in discussing, should we use the same platform? Should we continue to look at other platforms? should we use the same platform? Should we continue to look at other platforms? But the idea is that it's here and we don't normally and never really run a service before. The idea is to provide a prototypical approach, but helping the members out while we're doing that. It's like these emergency we talk about on these broadcasts here, on these episodes around experimental treatments to get emergency approval. And while it's being researched and better understood, people are benefiting from it. So I think that's where we are.

We're still having multiple members get on at 10.30 a.m. Eastern and 5.30 p.m. Eastern. Obviously the numbers are down right now since the violence is down. And the main area of discussion is how to pivot and design rapid response protective measures, both you mentioned laminates and even just conventional boarding to employees and how everything responds and works, how to plan with law enforcement partners and the rest of the community partners, the administration and so on

in each of these communities. So we're all learning together and we'll keep going there. But I suspect now, and we've talked about this again before, that these dangerous events that occur are triggered by things as disparate as a law enforcement and citizen encounter involving firearms or something like that, as well as NBA or Major League Baseball championships and everything in now elections and things like that. So there's a lot to get better at, to better understand. And just so everybody knows, out of what we call Zone 5, we're working a way to better understand these situations, how we deal with them, how we prevent them, these situations, how we deal with them, how we prevent them, how we work with the community, how do we bond and so on. But if you have seen footage, people are supporting even a movement or an event or a concern, and they're still victimized. So we know that there's a lot of

actors out there, too many. They're not about a political candidate or party or even a principle other than, I think, trouble and anarchy in some cases. So those are the people that we're most interested in trying to protect ourselves from while trying to understand the more legitimate and two very legitimate concerns and protests that occur. So I appreciate it, Tom and Tony, concerns and protests that occur. So I appreciate it, Tom and Tony, for all your insights. We're all here trying to do the best we can in one of the most uncertain times in probably recorded history called 2020. So thank you, Tony. Thank you, Tom. Thank you, Kevin. And thank you all, each and every one of you. Please be safe. Let us know at operations at lpresearch.org. Your questions, your comments, your suggestions, submit things that you think are relevant.

If you have good ideas for this podcast, whether it's a weekly series or the ongoing interviews with practitioners and policymakers and scientists, we'd love to hear from you. So signing off from Gainesville, Florida. Thank you, everybody. Thanks for listening to the Crime Science Podcast presented by the Laws Prevention Research Council and sponsored by Bosch Security. If you enjoyed today's episode, you can find more Crime Science episodes

and valuable information at lpresearch.org. The content provided in the Crime Science Podcast is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for legal, financial, or other advice. Views expressed by guests of the Crime Science Podcast is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for legal, financial, or other advice. Views expressed by guests of the Crime Science Podcast are those of the authors

and do not reflect the opinions or positions of the Office of Prevention Research Council.