LPRC - CrimeScience – The Weekly Review – Episode 44 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tom Meehan, and Tony D’Onofrio

Episode Date: February 11, 2021

145,000 COVID-19 scam websites taken down. Retail’s not dead: it’s one of the fastest-changing industries. In this week’s episode, our co-hosts discuss these topics and more, including COVID-19 strains, Clubhouse app scams, Reddit stocks, and retail trends and predictions in 2021. The post CrimeScience – The Weekly Review – Episode 44 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tom Meehan, and Tony D’Onofrio appeared first on Loss Prevention Research Council.

Hi everyone, welcome to Crime Science. In this podcast, we aim to explore the science of crime and the practical application of the science for loss prevention and asset protection practitioners, as well as other professionals. We would like to thank Bosch for making this episode possible. Take advantage of the advanced video capabilities offered by Bosch to help reduce your shrink risk. Integrate video recordings with point-of-sale data for visual verification of transactions and exception reporting. Use video analytics for immediate notification of important AP-related events and leverage analytics metadata for fast forensic searches for evidence and to improve merchandising and operations. Learn more about extending your video system beyond simple surveillance in zones one through four of LPRC's zones of influence by visiting Bosch online at boschsecurity.com. Welcome everybody to another episode of Crime Science,

the podcast, the latest in our weekly series. Today, what we're going to do is start off just touching a little bit on the coronavirus, what this looks like with COVID-19. Of course, probably there are two big news areas to cover and have been over the last few weeks. And one is just the variants and that, you know, we've discussed this before, but the idea that the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself continues to, as a virus will do, or any of us will do, will adapt. As it replicates and grows and spreads, there are errors in that replication, and that can result in mutations. Sometimes that's going to better enable the virus to spread and maybe even make it more virulent or create more serious disease for those it infects. And my understanding, too, is we're dealing right now still with a virus that's a bat virus, and it's still sort of evolving and adapting to a

human host. And so that's making it even more interesting and maybe less predictable as it tries to adapt to, again, a human host. And we're in that infection chain, that spread. It has to get into a human, in this case, as well as bats. And then we have to be a good host and then even better for the virus, get close to somebody else and infect them. And then we have that chain, that viral chain. And of course, that's why we continually talk about ways to break the viral chain, to break the spread. viral chain to break the spread. And again, we don't always know because such a large percentage of infected humans just don't exhibit any type of symptoms. And so they may not think, we may not think we're sick or just it's something like an allergy or a minor cold. And in fact, we're

infected with this particular coronavirus. So having said that, what we're trying to do is better understand the spread and look at what's going on in South Africa, Brazil, and the UK, where we understand there have been some systematic variations going on. And then particularly in Brazil, a unique situation where they're now reporting people have been infected with maybe two types of variants, at least, and they have a co-infection. And so again, the scientists are telling us, based on all the research from this virus and others, that the more people, in this case humans, that are infected, the more of us are infected, the more transmission, the more replication takes place, the more likely that there are to be errors in the replications and therefore mutations. And so that's what happens. It's why the race to break,

to stop the viral spread, as well as the race to get us vaccinated, as before these viruses can mutate to the point where the strains are not affected by the vaccines or they escape even from our natural immune systems, both the innate and adaptive. So that's kind of the logic model behind everything that's going on right now. So in Brazil, the fact that there are dual infections can double the load and demand on the normal immune system that we've all got.

And number two, the idea of one or more of these vaccines having an effect so stay tuned on that south africa we know there are more than one types of strains circulating there that are particularly uh they they produce a spread but they also seem to be less uh affected by natural immune systems that we have so far built up as well as by the vaccines and so we see these vaccines that look you know 60 80 90 effective with the initial um virus that we were dealing with are now maybe only less than 50 or even less than that in some cases and so i understand that south africa is putting on hold the astZeneca as they try and figure out, is that even effective enough to administer to their population?

And so, you know, we can see why this is, the science is critical here in trying to get these things right. In the United States, we see that these variants, these strains are starting to spread, particularly the UK version, which doesn't appear to try, which doesn't appear to escape or

be particularly resistant to the vaccines that we're administering, but rather is just much, much more transmissible. And so again, we've got more of us getting infected more rapidly, more easily. And so you're seeing more adaptation, more people that do get the serious disease and maybe even fatal. That's what's going on, especially in the UK. And now it's in about a third or more of the United States, in our states. So another reason to, again, break the chain, stay distant, mask and wash our hands. So Moving Ovisor now has, looks like their manufacturing capability they should be able to deliver the united states alone uh about 200 million doses by may uh moving that up from the

earlier july august time frame that's really good news um moderna seems to be on track the j and j's now submitted of course, last Friday. Their emergency use authorization filing with the FDA and also that data have been put up and posted publicly as well as provided to the independent panel of experts to all evaluate. So you're going to see 24-7 evaluation of data by the FDA, my understanding. Also CDC scientists, different other independent researchers, and then finally the independent panel. So you can have a lot of eyes on the data, the results, to go through it and pour through at least 200 pages of data. In addition to throughout the course of the research, the development, the trials,

they had similar visibility to researchers. So stay tuned on the J&J. And of course, we've all heard by now that right now it's designed as a single dose and only needs normal refrigeration. Both seem to make it a vaccine that while not quite as efficacious according to initial data, but bear in mind, by the way, their research started later, so it's been conducted on some of the new variants, whereas maybe the earlier wasn't. But it could prove out to be a little bit more effective as far as actually getting vaccines that are already in emergency or otherwise approved out there to handle the new variants that are coming out. So stay tuned on that part. AstraZeneca, they made the decision in the UK to possibly delay the second dose, particularly with AstraZeneca. I've been doing a lot of research around that, trying to get more people vaccinated with the first dose,

knowing that that's going to confer a significant amount of immunity. And then we'll get the second dose to you as soon as possible. But it may not be the recommended normal two, three weeks or so. It may go four or five or even more weeks. Well, the initial data coming in, and this seems to match up with what a lot of the virologists thought, that the extension actually can be even more powerful, and so it may not be detrimental. So that's good news too. And something, of course, in the United States, the FDA and CDC and others are looking at

what's the best pacing and timing. Sometimes the longer between dose one and two sometimes can confer even more immunity. So we'll take a look at that and report on that. The United States right now looks like about 44 million Americans above the age of 16 have been vaccinated. We're still in, we know there's phase one, A, B, and C, and then phase two is everybody.

So as they progress through in all states, those most exposed, those most vulnerable, and then they'll go to those that are most guilty of transmitting the disease. Worldwide, over 140 million people have been vaccinated with at least the first dose. So good news there. Vaccines, all vaccines total now in clinical trials, 35 in phase one, which are safety and dosing trials. Phase two, which are enhanced in much larger trials. And then phase three, there are, excuse me, two, 26 in phase two and 20 in phase three. Six now have emergency use authorization and four are finally approved. The Russians have different vaccines and trialing, but the Sputnik V, which they declared was already effective before

it even gone through phase two trials. Now the phase three trial is, I understand, completed. The data are coming out and being published in the Lancet peer-reviewed journal, but it looks to be actually 92% efficacious. So that's going to be particularly useful in a lot of countries around the world and getting more and more very, very effective vaccines out there and above. Anything above 50%, according to the experts, is something that's pretty powerful. So stay tuned there. Therapies, about 238 antivirals in trials, 383 other treatments in trials. Just close to 100 therapies are in phase three trials, and they just range,

again, from antibodies to anticoagulants to anti-inflammatories and so forth. We'll switch over now and talk a little bit about some of the research we're doing here at LPRC in the crime area. My main focus is on this concept of durable deterrence. How do we best affect an individual that's considering offending, victimizing an individual or a place? How do we better convince them not to start or to progress? How can we make their perception of a downside risk there last longer? And it's the same kind of concept we see again with what's going on with viral immunity. What's a more durable immunity response, immune response compared to the short-term response or a combination of both. So looking at the erosion

of consequence and how we can collectively work on that, it's been a discussion with our members last week or the week before last, we had the LPRC kickoff. We've mentioned before we had well over 300 executives on there interacting with some amazing panelists. We've been planning our upcoming Ignite, which will include a one-hour, two-hour strategy at Ignite session where we're doing some planning around durable deterrence and erosion of consequence and those types of topics to talk at a little more strategic level,

but the strategy should lead to action. And so we want to fill in the blanks there and come up with our action plan. We're really excited about it. A lot of planning going on for the LPRC Supply Chain Protection Working Group and working in conjunction with ISCPO on a summit. We'll bring out more information as that's becoming available. Kenna and the research team working on extending the risk mapping. We are in conversation right now with CapIndex on working with them on some things. Product Protection Summit, starting to do some planning there. Curbside, looking at better ways on smart lighting configuration. That type of research is underway.

ways on smart lighting configuration. That type of research is underway. Our SOC lab, how to improve security operations centers or EOCs or command centers. We've now held calls with two major chains as we plan out that research, and we have six more of those planned right now. Safer Places lab, planning continues there. We're working on building infrastructure. I'll share more details as they become more certain. A call out to everybody that's an LPRC member or otherwise for a video library. We're looking for video footage of activity in stores and elsewhere. We're also looking at Operation Next Level, working with Lighthouse Consultants. The idea is to bring on top quality retailer and solution partner members to continue to grow the LPRC community. Right now, we're in line to add six new members, which is exciting, in the month of February.

And there's a potential to add many, many more. And there's a potential to add many, many more. We're talking to probably over 50 other organizations, exciting organizations about joining. And then additionally, up in Canada, talking to some major companies there. And then finally, it's early days. And we'll talk about this later with Tony D'Onofrio in another upcoming episode. But what we're talking about as far as LPRC expansion outside the United States. So with no further ado, I want to thank everybody. And I'm going to go over to my colleague, Tom Meehan. Tom,

take it away, please. Well, thanks Reed. And a couple updates here on things that we've talked about past and a couple new things I'll kind of start off with. And mainly because for those of you that listen regularly or participate in the fusion net i'll start with a social media topic and um open source intelligence and social media gathering or monitoring today has really changed the way security professionals review things and there's a new app out called clubhouse which is

an audio only app and this is kind of uh it's in its infancy, and I think Tony and I are on it. It is an invite-only. It's kind of a very popular app today. But there's been a couple alerts that have come out around scams around Clubhouse and it being a new app, one being that folks are recording these audio conversations. And to give a little context, Clubhouse's platform allows a group of individuals, whether they know each other or not, to get into a room, which is called a club, and have an open audio conversation. It's live. There is some moderator controls in the sense of who you can let speak or not, but it's an open live platform.

And there are two concerns that have been posed by security experts. I've been on the app several times, participated in different groups. One is that when you are in these apps, the audio automatically unmutes. So if you're entered into a club and you are by a moderator bought in to speak,

your audio starts and it's unmuted so there have been instances where people have been in business settings and private confidential information has been inadvertently shared additionally there is um quite a bit of recording going on it is public and uh while i think we always talk about what you share in social media lives forever in this particular app there's audio. So there's audio being shared. And then additionally, this is really what the main alert comes through, is there are a lot of folks posing as celebrities, whether it be in the movie industry or high-level executives,

to get information or money from someone. So for instance, someone poses as a high-level executive. One of the examples that was given, and I actually heard something very similar to this, is they need an executive assistant. All they need is your information to fill out. The tax paperwork will hire you. And clearly what that does is that gives private information.

That's one of the things that are occurring. The other one is asking for a fee to get looked at for a celebrity piece. So main purpose of talking about this is as social media platforms grow, there are things that occur regularly in the social media world and open up doors to this. So more to come on it. It is a very popular new app. I know there's more to come on it. I mean, it is a very popular new app. I know there's going to be more information that occurs because of it. Next, the next piece related to social media as well. And this is, well, it's not something I normally talk about. I think it just kind of plays the power of social media for anybody that's been following kind of some of the retail stocks, GameStop, one of them, it was really driven by a Reddit group that a consortium of individuals that

purchase stocks so this is just kind of a reminder of the power of social media and the power of these platforms and how quickly a group of individuals can actually write a narrative so as you continue to monitor social media and look at it keep in mind that you know it's taking this industrial intelligence or corporate security intelligence approach where it isn't always about threat. We talk about it could be about the weather event, but it also could be just about general business. So it's a different way of thinking about it. And actually, one of the things I read yesterday, the day before, is that there is an ETF that's being launched that actually will track social media buzz like Reddit. So the Wall Street has recognized the power and we continue to remind everybody of

the power of social media, both on the good and the bad side there. So just one of those things to keep in mind. Another thing, and I think this comes up rather often, but it's starting to happen again with the resurgence of masks, which is brushing scams. And what happens in a brushing scam is that an individual receives a package of goods. I think if you remember throughout the spring and the summer, it was seeds being shipped and nuts from overseas. Now we're starting to see masks appear. And there's a lot of news surrounding these scams. The Federal Trade Commission issued kind of an update this week, again, about what it is. Basically, what happens is you have a seller generally overseas that needs a tracking address. So they actually create a fake account, make a fake purchase,

and then they need a legitimate tracking address to show to Amazon or eBay that they sent something. So they'll generally send a low cost item. And in this case, we're starting to see an influx of masks. And there is no real major cause for alarm, at least anecdotally today, to the masks of being any harm. What it is, is these are three-ply masks that there's an abundance of overseas and they just need those addresses. It's not advisable to eat or use any of these things. Most of the time, the advice is to destroy them. You're not liable for them and it is a brushing scam.

But if you get that package, you're not alone. There are literally thousands coming out, you know, happening a day. And sometimes if it's from Amazon, you can contact Amazon directly, they'll give you kind of direction, but almost always the direction is to dispose of the goods. This is actually significantly on the rise. And as I was looking at the reports, it's being reported just about every state in the United States today, where packages are being around. And as I was looking at the reports, it's being reported in just about every state in the United States today where packages are being around. And I think the fact that there were masks kind of drew some alarming responses from folks where it was nuts and seeds before it was kind of a little bit more of a confusion than anything else. And then my last kind of a piece that I wanted to talk about today

was really around COVID-19 vaccinations. And I do, you know, I know that sometimes I'm repetitive with this, but in the last week, there's about 145,000 websites that were taken down that depict either selling the vaccinations or charging a fee to get higher on the list, if you will, to get your, you know, your vaccination. And these fees in some cases are really nominal. So when you think about someone asking for $5 for a processing fee, there are kind of two exposures. One is giving your personal information out, but then the other is that you're giving $5 and it's not hard math. If a thousand people do it, you know, these folks make money basically while sitting at home because these are websites that are unmanned. So stay vigilant, especially with the COVID-19 piece. To date, there's nobody selling

vaccines legitimately for in-home use. There are, in fact, some tests that have been approved for in-home use. Great thing about the internet is you can just Google some of those tests to find out which ones are legitimate. There are state guidelines around home use tests. Certain states don't allow it yet, but there are some that have been approved. So to date, I don't anticipate us seeing vaccinations online, but they have, there are some that have been approved. So to date, I don't anticipate us seeing vaccinations online, but some therapeutics maybe someday, not today, but testing, yes. And this is a question I get often is how do you know what's legitimate or not? And it's kind of follow the trail of looking at the company and doing your best the same way I would recommend you

shopping online. If it's a new store, you're going to do a little more research. If it's somewhere you've never shopped before, you're going to do a little research. It's the same exact thing when you're getting COVID information. I think everybody's drinking from a fire hose because there's so much information that's been available.

And unfortunately, scammers are taking advantage of it. Without anything else, I'll turn it over to Tony. Thank you very much, Tom. Great information. Also, you read. And actually, I'll turn it over to Tony. Thank you very much, Tom. Great information. Also, you read. And actually, I just saw something in Italy where they were busting actually, you know, fake vaccines or not approved vaccines. So it's happening all over the world, some of the trends that you've described. So let me start this morning with the data dump by looking at Robin's report, top 20 retail wildcard trends for 2021

and i'm just going to give you the high level i actually publish all these during the week so if you want to see the details they're available through my social media feeds but these are this is what they're seeing is happening in 2021 so number number one, sustainable fashion. Number two, rental retail goes mainstream. Number three, certified used retail. Number four, enthusiastic-based retail channels. Number five, buy now, pay later. Number six, voice e-commerce at home. Number seven, Number six, voice e-commerce at home. Number seven, the fitness center. Number eight, FOMO or fear of missing out retail. Number nine, near eye augmented reality retail. Number 10, in-store fulfillment. Number 11, k of Retail Medical. Number 13, Walkout Shopping. 14, Experience Centric Retail. Number 15, Dynamic In-Store Pricing. Number 16, Born Again Brands Online.

Number 17, OTT or Over-the-Top Commerce. Number 18, In-Store Signage. Number 19, Traceability. And number 20, Crypto. So these are some of the things that you'll hear about in 2020. Chain Store Age also had some interesting data that, you know, we've been talking about how the weaker brands have been impacted by COVID, but they actually did some research that showed the volatility and disruptions of 2020 impacted high-performing retailers more than their peers.

So this is from research that RSR did in North America, European Union, and UK, and they found that retail winners were compatible store channel sales growth above the industry average of 4.5%, but more likely to report a lot of impact from a number of disruptions during 2020 than their average performing or lagging competitors. And the disruptions included COVID-19, changes in customer expectations, weather events, social unrest, and boycotts. So it's not only the weak retailers, the high-performing retail was really highly impacted also. From Steve Dennis and Forbes, here are their nine provocative retail predictions for 2021. The great acceleration moderates. Number two, physical retail still not dead. Number three,

bifurcation 2.0 in the hollowing of the middle. Number four, the hybridization of retail takes the center stage. Five, grocery wars escalate. Six, work from whatever rewires retail real estate strategy. Seven, cheaper real estate creates new brick and mortar opportunities. Eight, without a return to fun, we won't see luxury and fashion recovery. And number nine, pennies kicks the can down the road. And then finally, from RIS News, these are the 10 retailers that ruled curbside and buy online pickup in stores in the United States. And number one by far was Target. And Target started deploying their model actually back in 2018. Well, before the pandemic, they added more services in 2019, including fresh foods, and their services as a result were robust in terms of returns. So in November, December, they grew 193% those services. And in the third quarter, same day services grew

200%, and they added more than a billion dollars of revenue to Target. Walmart was number two. Again, they also were adding aggressively pre-pandemic, but they continued that trend. They now have 3,700 stores delivering curbside and buy online pickup services. And they've also doubled the number of associates working in online pickup to 140,000. Walgreens was number three. They had over 1.7 million pickup orders completed in November and total digitally were up 40%. Ulta Beauty was fourth.

They introduced pickup actually during the pandemic, but put so much focus on it. And they did it so well that in Q3, Bopit's total about 16 percent of total e-commerce sales so if you're late make sure you do it exceptionally and that's what alta beauty did nordstrom was number five became offering into again way before the pandemic 2008 and they fine-tuned and they went down a model of making everything available to be sold online, including making store inventory available to be sold online.

Michaels was number six. E-commerce grew 128% in the third quarter, and a significant portion of that went to Bopas. Best Band of Beyond was number seven. They have 1.2 million orders at Bopas and their Met Promoter score. So consumers love these things, what, 80%. So consumers love these. Other retailers mentioned were Kohl's, Kroger,

and Dollar General. So what's the lessons from this morning's data dump to you? Is number one, invest early. A ahead of the trends with focus on increasing convenience and saving consumers time. Number two, retail is not dead. It's one of the fastest changing industries and it accelerated faster the separation between the winners and the losers. Number three, consumers are in charge with the smartphone as the new engine of commerce. And number five, a part of this audience, tax patterns are changing as a result of how retail is changing,

and you need to get ahead of it now. And one of the best places to do it is actually by listening to this podcast and joining and participating in the Law places to do is actually by listening to this podcast and joining and participating in the Laws Prevention Research Council. We track these trends, but more importantly, we impact them with crime prevention research. And with that, I'm going to turn it over to Reed. All right. Thank you so much, Tony and Tom, our producer Kevin Tran. Thank you everybody for tuning in. Please, at any time, we look forward to your suggestions,

comments, ideas at operations at lpresearch.org. So on behalf of the team and LPRC at large, I want to thank you for tuning in to Crime Science Podcast. Thanks for listening to to Crime Science Podcast

are those of the authors and do not reflect the opinions or positions of the Office of Prevention Research Council.