LPRC - CrimeScience – The Weekly Review – Episode 86 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tom Meehan & Tony D’Onofrio

Episode Date: January 6, 2022

Happy New Years from the LPRC Podcast Team! A Patient in UK has both Flu and Covid! In this week’s episode, our co-hosts discuss predictions for 2022 made 100 years ago, Omicron variant is 4x as likely to spread, LPRC Kickoff is January 19th in NYC, and a some up to date predictions for 2022. Listen in to stay updated on hot topics in the industry and more! The post CrimeScience – The Weekly Review – Episode 86 with Dr. Read Hayes, Tom Meehan & Tony D’Onofrio appeared first on Loss Prevention Research Council.

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Crime Science. In this podcast, we explore the science of crime and the practical application of this science for loss prevention and asset protection practitioners, as well as other professionals. We would like to thank Bosch for making this episode possible. Take advantage of the advanced video capabilities offered by Bosch to help reduce your shrink risk. Integrate video recordings with point-of-s sale data for visual verification of transactions and exception reporting. Use video analytics for immediate notification of important AP related events and leverage analytics metadata for fast forensic searches for evidence and to

improve merchandising and operations. Learn more about extending your video system beyond simple surveillance in zones one through four of LPRC's zones of influence by visiting Bosch online at boschsecurity.com. Welcome everybody to another episode of Crime Science, the podcast, this is our latest in the weekly update series. I'm joined by colleague Tony D'Onofrio, our producer Diego Rodriguez, and it's to be determined if Tom and Ian will be able to make it due to loss of voice. So what we'll do is a quick round-the-world tour here. I'll start off, of course, as per normal, a little bit about the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and how it's affecting each and every human globally every day.

We see that something interesting, too, by the way, many have seen this, I'm sure, in the United Kingdom, a female patient testing positive simultaneously and immediately for influenza, the flu, as well as COVID-19. I'm not sure yet if they've analyzed and determined the strain of COVID-19 that she's got. But it's pretty interesting to have both of those viruses at the same exact time. We wish her and her family well on that. So there are interesting things out, of course, about the Omicron variant that we've all heard so much about. And at this point, it sounds like millions and millions of us have experienced, whether we realized it or not. A lot of research

out of South Africa, as we mentioned before on this podcast, they do a lot of viral research and have for quite a few years. So there's a lot of expertise there and a lot of resources and technology there available. So they look there, clearly that's the first that sequenced and identified the Omicron variant as well as started to describe a couple of things about it. Of course, the dynamics we're aware of one that is incredibly transmissible, maybe as much as four times more transmissible or infectious. In other words, spread more likely to spread than even the Delta and Delta plus variants, which are pretty transmissible, evidently. that are developed in response to a pathogen like COVID-19 particles or particles that enter us and how they're generated in an attempt to prevent infection, to eject them or at least neutralize their action against us. But we've also talked about the cellular activity that comes from the B and T cells,

particularly the killer T cells that are designed to not prevent infection, but once we are infected to immediately kill infected cells so that those cells don't become viral factories and start to create the replication chain throughout us and that can spread to others, right? So the T cells seem to be working well, even against the Omicron variant. They're paying very close attention because we've seen that the antibody action from the vaccines or even evidently from some of the research from prior natural infection, or in many cases, people that have had both, have had full vaccine series, even including the booster, have been infected once or whatever can still be infected. Again, we know that the immune system seems to be primarily, just like the vaccines, designed to reduce the seriousness of disease we get from infection, not reduce the probability or likelihood that we become infected if we onboard some of the viral

particles. But we know that Omicron, again, looks like research continues to confirm the second part, that it is much more transmissible. Some of the reasons for that, some of the mechanisms they describe are much more rapid viral replenishment or replication within our bodies than they saw evidently with some of the earlier variants that were sequenced and identified and described. We're also seeing, though, that it's having a hard time making us seriously ill. Particularly, they're seeing a disparity still with serious disease, clearly with vaccination and or natural infection, explaining why some people are getting sick or sicker than others and why so many, even at an incredible rate, are not even symptomatic

or at least subclinical so that the person's not really aware of it or there's no reason for them to test or get diagnosed in their mind because we don't know we're sick. So a lot of the dynamics happening here and um, and some of the things that, uh, to keep an eye on, uh, one thing that they are also describing with the T cells and their action against the Omicron, uh, just like with some of the earlier variants that we've seen is it evidently targets the entire spike protein, not just parts of the spike protein that might have been, let's say, our vaccine or some other natural unit we've got is there. So, that's maybe taking up the slack, again, that our antibodies, whether boosted by a vaccination or by natural infection or both.

So, the other thing is that the breakthrough they're seeing the risk is higher in cancer patients with Omicron variant, something to keep an eye on, another tragic component of this whole thing. And again, the reason for the incredible research and development and global testing that resulted in the vaccines that we now have were to reduce the seriousness of the disease to help boost the immunity, particularly those that are immunocompromised because of the drug therapies they're on for another condition like cancer. So this also seems to hold true with Omicron variant. So, but part of it too, we've seen is why are the South African and now other physicians and scientists around the world describing that

Omicron may not generate as serious disease and the results or the, I'm sorry, the response or reactions of our bodies to the COVID-19 disease that we get. And that's the inefficiency of entering lung cells compared to say the Delta variant that seems to readily enter lung cells or move from cell to cell within our lungs or replicate and continue to move. It doesn't seem to be as efficient. And we talked about logically through the evolution, through the evolutionary process as we all, everything and everybody and every organism adapts, evolves to adapt to changing environments and conditions that it's not in the best interest, if you will. They're not rational or logical beings or entities, of course, but you don't want to kill the host or even slow the host down. In other words,

put somebody in the hospital in isolation, they're not spreading the virus. So these things seem to be holding true, but now they're trying to understand what's this look like, and is this going to be the persistent and dominant strain? If so, this is something that the world can more readily live with, particularly with the amount of vaccination that's taking place around the U.S., around the world. And by the way, right now, it looks like as of today, this week on the 5th, in this case, the 5th of January, 2022, 520 million doses have been administered in the united states of vaccines uh the pfizer moderna or j and j jansen um so that means that now uh just over 210 million americans have been fully vaccinated at this point and fully meaning two doses uh not necessarily including the third dose, which is designed to, again,

to generate new antibody action that seems to wane, as we've seen with other vaccines in the past. So we've also looked at the worldwide numbers. We're looking at now 9.3 billion, with a B, billion doses have been administered to humans across the globe, with over 4 billion global citizens have now been fully vaccinated against the COVID-19 disease, with now daily millions of people across the globe, still over a million a day in the United States being vaccinated. So that continues to reduce the seriousness of the disease so that, again, that the medical professionals and the resources are not overwhelmed and so forth. So looking at the vaccine front, now a few have been added. There are now 113 different COVID-19 vaccines in clinical human clinical trials. Again, we talked about dozens and dozens more that are still preclinical going through computer analysis and simulations with high speed computers or an animal and or an animal trials.

animal trials. So we're looking at 51 vaccine candidates in phase one, 49 additional candidates in phase two, 44 candidates in phase three, large scale trials, 19 vaccine candidates have now been emergency use authorization cleared because of where they were with the phase one, two, and three testing. And now nine vaccines are fully and completely approved. And again, you see the ones we've got, the big three in the United States being fully approved, J&J, the Moderna, and the Pfizer versions because of the exhaustive testing in the United States, the following of vaccinated patients that continues, the surveillance it's called, and then, of course, the other trials, clinical one, two, and three phase trials, plus all the follow-ups around the globe.

And again, we're talking about, at some point, closing on 10 billion humans that have been vaccinated. This is the most data that anybody's ever had, the most testing that anybody's ever done on any vaccine or any therapy therapy is my understanding at this point it's pretty incredible and those of us that are scientists are pretty impressed but of course when you talk about a global pandemic like this and the downsides but things continue i know on the therapy front we know that astrazeneca now has EvuShield out. The problem with some of these is that they take a longer, it seems, to develop in some of these vaccines.

The therapies, as well as have to go through phase one, two, and three clinical trials, and then have all their data be evaluated, as well as the ability to consistently manufacture the doses. And that's another critical part. And one thing that took longer to get, my understanding, the vaccines finally and completely approved is just the factories that make them have to be tested and have to be approved as part of the process, is my understanding. So we also see that the Pfizer, the Paxlovid pill therapy, this is where you think you've got symptoms or your test says you do test positive, then it's a matter of the full week or the five day dosing regimen is my understanding. They expect about 4 million will be ready by February of 2022 coming up here. Probably about 100 billion will be ready by June this summer. So that's that's good news for people that.

But these are to be used, my understanding and look at the reading is early on. You think you've got, or you know you've got symptoms, you try and take them with an X amount of days or hours, not something to be taken evidently later in the course of the disease. So moving over now from COVID, we'll quickly go to the LPRC. We're ramping up everything we're doing. We're adding new team members. We'll go through that in an upcoming episode and talk to them, talk to some of the current team members that we've got about the research they're doing, the new lab capabilities inside and outside buildings. A lot of exciting things happening. LPRC kickoff. We've now got over 100 people registered for that on January 19th. But with this Omicron spread and the spiking going on in New York particularly, but around the U.S. and around the world,

where retailers and the solution partners and others were ramping up and gearing up to come in to New York City for the big show, that's obviously there's a big kibosh on a lot of that. We'll have to see how that's rolling, see what's going on. As of right now, Bloomingdale's our partner in this, who hosted and participated in LPRC kickoff for several years, found out due to New York COVID protocols, they'll not be able to host that, particularly putting 110 humans into a relatively small environment wasn't probably the most prudent action. But in this case, it's proscribed by city and state regulations. So the National Retail Federation, the NRF, who does work closely with the LPRC in the same way, say, RELA, FMI, and other associations do, is looking for some space. They'd like to see it happen if it can, and they're very,

very, very supportive, but we'll have to stay tuned. Again, as of today on the 5th, we got email communications from them as they're looking to see if they would have enough space that they could make available, should we still do it. We do have a plan B. Unfortunately, we had to have one. We'll have a 90-minute LPRC kickoff webinar that we would do. It wouldn't necessarily be live, but it would be something that we would do. A lot of interesting things that we would be doing during LPRC kickoff and invite participation. It'll be something that people could also, they can tune in live and we'll have Q&A going on, but the presentations would not be live themselves, but we'll be on there answering questions and engaging. But we would also make this available

to any and everybody that had interest in participating and viewing all or part of the 90-minute webinar. We're going to roll some of the content back again as our plan B to our LPRC Ignite that's planned in February, hopefully, in Gainesville. But we'll also make all this content available regardless. So with that, I'm going to go ahead and tune out and go over to my friend and colleague, Tony D'Onofrio. Tony, if you could take it away. Thank you, everyone, and happy new year. This week, I want to focus on predictions for the new year. But before doing that, I want to look backwards to look forward in terms of what to expect into the new year. And by that, I mean nearly a hundred years ago, a group of deep thinkers

dared to ponder what life will be like in 2022. Some of their predictions were amusingly short, but others have proved to be eerily accurate. From the Akron Beacon Journal, here's a few predictions of what was on the list as predictions in 1922, 100 years ago. So this is what they predicted. Number one, flying will become entirely commonplace. steamer will survive on the coast but it will have disappeared on the main routes and will have been replaced by flying convoys which should cover the distance between London and New York in about 12 hours. The people of the year in 2022 will probably never see a wire outlined against the sky. It is

practically certain that wireless telegraphy and wireless telephones will have crushed the cable system long before the century is done. Coal will be exhausted, but our reserves will be seriously depleted, and so will oil. One of the world's largest dangers of century hence will be a shortage of fuel, but it is likely that at that time a great deal of power will be obtained from the tides, from the sun, from the radio and other forms of radio energy, which may also include atomic energy. The movies will be more attractive as long before 2022 they will be replaced by the kinophones which now exist only in the laboratory.

That is, figures on the screen will not only move but they will also have their natural colors and speak with unironic voices. Most of the cleaning required today in houses will have been done away with. In the first place, through the disappearance of coal, in all places where electricity is not made, there will be no more smoke, perhaps not even tobacco. In 2022, a complete meal will maybe be taken in the shape of four pills. Americans will be less enterprising and much more pleasure-loving. They will have rebelled against long hours. The changes are that in 2022, few people will work more than seven hours a day, if that much. Rolling sidewalks operating by electromagnetic power will connect buildings.

Canals will replace streets, providing a place for baiting, canoeing, and powerboarding. Trains will travel on glass plates and reach speeds of 200 miles an hour. Anti-gravity screens will prevent airplanes from falling out of the sky. Almost anybody able to pay the rent will own an automobile. cars will be that common. The suburbs will extend as far as 100 miles from the center of the city. So that's what was predicted 100 years ago in 1922. And again, amazing how some of those predictions were exactly accurate, so interesting. But let me move forward and come back to the present. And here is a list of 22 predictions starting from Cloudflare. So from Cloudflare, number one, adapting to

a 5G world. i5G technology, they say, is real, and the promise for end users is vastly more wireless bandwidth and lower network latency. The trends of flexible work will also likely increase with the adoption of 5G mobile and fixed wireless broadband. Companies will invest heavily in 5G starting this year to deliver better experiences for their employees and customers. Number two, talent is out there. It's not just evenly distributed. Work has changed profusely due to the global pandemic over the last two years. People are now searching, applying, interviewing, onboarding, and working entirely remotely. increasingly tip the balance in the talent war and companies will look for every technological advantage to attract talent they need. Number three, the cloud simply increases. Companies

will continue to adapt the cloud quickly, but IT leaders will expect cloud services to simplify instead of adding more complexity. Number four, security is only getting more complicated. getting more complexity. Number four, security is only getting more complicated. Companies must embrace zero trust. In 2022, CIOs and CISOs will increasingly evaluate or re-evaluate technology and practices in their security toolkit through the lens of zero trust. The security as a service model would tend to win

for the same reason it was predicted more in the cloud, namely solving security problem as simply as possible with the fewest headcounts required. Number five, the corporate WAN or network is dead. Long live the internet-based corporate network. And number six, matters of privacy. In 2022 and beyond, companies will architect application with privacy laws in mind from the outset. So that's a good set of predictions.

And my favorite, which I'll end on this week, is from Ipsos, and and its Global Predictions 2022. And this is from a list of surveys that they did in 33 countries around the world. On COVID-19, the predictions are that most expect greater COVID vaccinations around the world. Half about expect a new deadly strain of the virus to appear in 2022. More than half of the people believe that in more than 80% of the world populations will receive at least one dose of a COVID vaccine in 2022. On the environment, most people around the world believe in 2022

you will see more climate change consequences, with 60% saying it's likely there will be more extreme weather events in their country in 2022 than there was in 2021. 45% expect to see people flying less than they did in 2019. On economics, a clear majority, 75%, expect prices in their countries to increase faster than incomes. Globally, people have greater expectations for sharp stock market stability in 2022 as it did in 2021, when 40% said major stock markets around the world were likely to crash. On society, 71% anticipate seeing city centers in their countries to become busy again as people get back to working in offices

on a regular basis. 71% seeing city centers in their countries again getting back to normal. On technology, over 50% or 57% to be exact, said it is more likely people will live their lives in a virtual world. Four in 10 or roughly 38% think it's likely that strict rules for large technology companies will be introduced by the government in their countries and 83% in social media companies have too much power. On global threats, 4 in 10 expect a natural disaster

to hit a major city in their country. 4 in 10 say it's likely hackers from a foreign government will cause a global IT shutdown. 1 in 3 globally think it is likely that nuclear weapons will be used in a conflict somewhere in the world. And on the outlook for 2022, three quarters expect a better year in 2022. Three in five agree the world economy will be stronger in the next year. So those are a few predictions, both looking from the past and looking forward.

So Happy New Year, and I hope many of those positive predictions do come true for all of us. All right. Well, thanks so much for that, Tony. And thank you, Diego, our producer. Most of all, thank you all for dialing in. We're always interested and excited to hear from you at operations at lpresearch.org. And tell your friends and colleagues to download, to subscribe to Crime Science, the podcast. Everybody stay safe and connected. Thanks for listening to the Crime Science Podcast presented by the Loss Prevention Research Council

and sponsored by Bosch Security. If you enjoyed today's episode, you can find more crime science Thank you.