Main Engine Cut Off - T+112: SLC-20, SPD-4, and a Soyuz Soapbox

Episode Date: February 27, 2019

Firefly Aerospace is taking over Space Launch Complex 20, President Trump signed Space Policy Directive-4, and NASA is looking to buy more Soyuz seats, even though they always say it’s too late to do that. This episode of Main Engine Cut Off is brought to you by 35 executive producers—Kris, Pat, Matt, Jorge, Brad, Ryan, Jamison, Nadim, Peter, Donald, Lee, Jasper, Chris, Warren, Bob, Russell, John, Moritz, Joel, Jan, David, Grant, Mike, David, Mints, Joonas, Robb, Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut, Frank, and six anonymous—and 220 other supporters on Patreon. Resurrected Firefly Aerospace will take over a launch site at busy Florida spaceport - The Verge Text of Space Policy Directive-4: Establishment of the United States Space Force | The White House Space Policy Directive-4 - Main Engine Cut Off NASA Looking to Buy Two More Soyuz Seats, Even Though They Always Say It’s Too Late to Do That - Main Engine Cut Off Email your thoughts, comments, and questions to [e-mail] Follow @WeHaveMECO Listen to MECO Headlines Join the Off-Nominal Discord Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Pocket Casts, Spotify, Google Play, Stitcher, TuneIn or elsewhere Subscribe to the Main Engine Cut Off Newsletter Buy shirts and Rocket Socks from the Main Engine Cut Off Shop Support Main Engine Cut Off on Patreon Music by Max Justus

firefly aerospace spd4 and soyuz that's what we're talking today a collection of smaller stories that i wanted to touch on we've got a q a show coming up just at the end of this week so you'll be hearing from me again very soon and i do have a couple of spots left on that Q&A list. If you have something, send it my way quickly to get it in by Friday. But I wanted to talk about these couple of stories because I feel like they are small yet important to note. And the first up is Firefly Aerospace, who last week had an announcement out at Cape Canaveral that they are taking over Space Launch Complex 20 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. A couple of weeks back, we were talking about spaceports, and we were talking about how we need more polar sites in the U.S.,

and how launch sites around the country are getting a little slim pickings now. And Firefly is one of the first small launch players to lock up a site on both coasts. So previously, they've had an agreement to launch out of Vandenberg Air Force Base at Space Launch Complex 2 West, which is where Delta 2 flew out of until late last year. They're taking that over now. They're reworking it for their launch vehicles. So they've got a West Coast launch site and an East Coast launch site. And that's important because they can now serve all of the different markets that their vehicle would need to. In addition to the launch sites, which we'll talk about in a sec, they are also going to open up a giant manufacturing facility

out at Cape Canaveral, right next to where Blue Origin's building is, right next to where OneWeb's building is out in Exploration Park, as they call it, which is just next to the Kennedy Space Center Visitors Complex. If you've ever been there, just a short drive away is this stretch of manufacturing facilities. And Firefly is putting a 150,000 square foot factory there where they'll produce their vehicles and then they'll fly them either out of Cape or I guess they'll ship them to their West Coast launch site as needed. All in all, they're bringing about 200 jobs down there to Florida. They are investing about $52 million with the state kicking in about $19 million. The Florida Department of Transportation has funds for spaceport infrastructure to kind of generate some revenue there

and generate some economic activity. So they're kicking in some value here. So all in all, a really good announcement from Firefly. So let's talk about why I think it's important to note. First up, they've now got a launch site on both coasts, as I mentioned. So they are instantly in the running for any East Coast launches that are needed, like low inclination launches to either small payloads to geostationary orbit or any lower equatorial satellites that might need launching, be it for civil partners like NASA or NOAA or Department of Defense needs. But then on the West Coast, they've got access to all the polar orbits that they need.

So a lot of the imaging satellites that are launched, a lot of the spy satellites that are launched are out of the West Coast. So they've got a full complement of launch azimuths that they can hit now from the U.S. So that puts them in good company because a lot of Department of Defense and a lot of civil partners need to fly out of the U.S. And that's why you see Rocket Lab getting their U.S. launch site. That's why you see a lot of these companies looking for launch sites here in the U.S. because that's an important part of the launches that are available within the country. So this is pretty big news for FiveFly and it makes them a very serious player

when you're looking ahead the next couple of years of these small launchers. That puts them in the running for just about anything that there is to be won. And that is a really important fact. Now the additional investment in Florida, the manufacturing facility, on top of this being a good spot to put your manufacturing right next to where you're launching, getting that kind of support from the state of Florida and embedding yourself there probably helps down the line for politic reasons as well. So they are going to be close to these Floridians that they're working with now, but that also means on a state level, but that also means on a federal level that they are kind of, you know, this gives them a little political leverage. It's going to get them to be sort of close to some of the Florida senators. You know, they've got their headquarters out in Texas, but now they're going to establish a pretty big footprint in Florida as well.

So the senators and representatives in Florida, that's who they're going to get close to next. That broadens their political support. So that is a really strong move from Firefly to kind of spread the love around the country in a way that, you know, SpaceX has done, you know, Launch Alliance has done, and a lot of the big players have done, is widen that political base, widen the footprint that you have, while still, you know, fulfilling two things that you need, which is East Coast, West Coast launch sites. So all in all, I think Firefly is really set up for a very successful couple of years. If they can get from here to the launch pad successfully, they are currently looking at the end of this

year or early next. I forget exactly where their date is right now, but they are looking to launch fairly soon. I would have a hard time believing it's this year, so I would expect early next year, mid next year is probably where we'll be looking to see a launch from Firefly, but expect to see some contracts landed soon by Firefly. They did have a leg in the NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services contract, but I would expect to see a couple launch contracts heading their way in the not too distant future, maybe even for some Department of Defense players that have their eye on Firefly, because I know that their vehicle is an attractive market, because right now that payload range is served by Minotaurs, which tend to be a little expensive, and Firefly is offering a much lower

price for a similar payload range. So that is a big step. If the Department of Defense takes on Firefly as a customer, that would be big news, and I would expect to see it sometime in the lead up to Firefly's first flight. Maybe it would get announced after they fly. But nonetheless, I think Firefly has got a good head of steam here. And I'm excited to see where they go. All right, the next little quick story I want to talk about was Space Policy Directive 4. This was signed by President Trump last week. And this is a directive that has to do with Space Force. It doesn't create Space Force, as was reported in a lot of places. What it does is asks the Pentagon to send a proposal to the president that then the president can send to Congress, which gets Space Force started legislatively, and Congress would have to approve this formation, and there's going to have to be a whole congressional wrangling that happens. But this doesn't create Space Force. This just moves it along. But what it also does

is shows what kind of shape Space Force will take in the legislative branch. So originally, the idea was Space Force as its own department of the military. So that would be its own secretary of the Space Force that would report to the highest levels of the armed forces. But this proposal is a little different because of the recent shakeup in Congress where the Democrats took the House. So there's not as much appetite for the standalone Space Force. There was a contingent that has always been fighting for Space Force to be underneath the Air Force as its own department. So kind of like the Marines was always the idea is to keep them under another department since it is a smaller service and yada yada.

This Space Policy Directive 4 that President Trump signed is that. So Space Force would exist under the Air Force. The most important part of the directive, if you read it, is this. The legislative proposal required by Section 3 of this memorandum shall create a civilian Undersecretary of the Air Force for Space to be known as the Undersecretary for Space, appointed by the President by and with the advice and consent of the Senate. So right there, I think this is the most important thing to take away from Space Policy Directive 4. And if you're someone like me who is a Space Force inevitablist, this is the most disappointing part because what it means is that Space Force would still be reporting up through the Air Force. So the head of the Space Force would report through the head of the Air Force, kind of like it is now. And I think this

would really kind of keep us in the same pain point that we're at right now, where the Space Force is stifled by some of the Air Force structures. So you've got the head of the Space Force reporting to the head of the Air Force who reports up from there. I think Space Force has always been interesting because what it does is elevates space leadership up and outside of the Air Force. So that gets their concerns and their priorities heard outside of the Air Force structure, where I think internally that the space contingent of the Air Force has always felt that the plane side of the Air Force gets a lot of the love and space sometimes gets stifled. And that's kind of why we're in this situation where we're talking about Space Force is because of that. So I think keeping the head of the Space Force under the Air Force is going to lead to the same pain points

that we have now. I don't think this is going to solve anything in the long term. But, you know, this is the thing that can pass congressionally right now. So that's why they're heading this way. So I understand that. But, you know, I don't think this solves anything for national security space. And I think it's going to continue to hold it back in many ways. So this is the first step, I think. And at some point down the line, hopefully Space Force would move out. But I think we're going to have the same sort of problems we have now. And to me, I'm pretty disappointed as somebody who would like to see that space leadership spread its own wings, to use a bad pun in this situation, to see space leadership kind of take its own priorities seriously, take those own priorities up to the highest levels of

government. I think that's what's needed if we're going to fix some of the issues in national security space. And I think a lot of the people that work in space within the Air Force feel that way as well. So a little bit disappointing, but we'll see where it goes in Congress from here. It's still going to be a long road to get this approved and all that. So things could change by the time that that happens. So we'll continue to follow that throughout the year. I'm sure it'll be an ongoing thing. And in just a couple of weeks, we're going to see the fiscal year 2020 budgets, which will give us an indication of what kind of budget levels they're looking for to do the Space Force thing that they're going to do. And that'll also be telling as well. Before we move on to the next story, I want to say thank

you to all of you who support Managing Cutoff over at patreon.com slash Miko. This is an entirely 100% listener supported show. If you like what I'm doing here, help support the show over at patreon.com slash miko. This is an entirely 100% listener-supported show. If you like what I'm doing here, help support the show over at patreon.com slash miko. It's what keeps me doing this every single week. And this episode of Main Engine Cutoff was produced by 35 executive producers. Chris, Pat, Matt, George, Brad, Ryan, Jameson,

Nadeem, Peter, Donald, Lee, Jasper, Chris, Warren, Bob, Russell, John, Moritz, Joel, Jan, David, Grant, Mike, David, Mintz, Eunice, Rob, Tim, Dodd, nadim peter donald lee jasper chris warren bob russell john moritz joel yan david grant mike david mince eunice rob tim dodd the everyday astronaut frank and six anonymous executive producers thank you so much for making this episode possible and thank you to everyone else who supports the show at patreon.com slash miko head over there if you want to help support if you get a little value out of this send a little little back my way. This is the Adam Curry value for value model. You like what I'm doing, help support over at Patreon. And additionally this time, I usually tell you about Headlines show,

usually tell you about the Off Nominal Discord. But if you want to help support Managing Cutoff this week, tell one friend about the show. Send them a link. One friend, send a link. Thank you very much. All right, so this next story, just give me one second to get my soapbox out so I can do my typical Soyuz seats rant that I tend to do. Last week, it came out that NASA is

looking to buy two more Soyuz seats for this year and early next to get astronauts up to the ISS. This was first found out by NASA Space Flight. Chris B. over there had a nice article about this. ISS. This was first found out by NASA Space Flight. Chris B. over there had a nice article about this. And apparently they're looking to acquire seats for fall of 2019 and spring of 2020. So this would be MS-15 and MS-16. MS-15 currently has a third seat occupied by a paying spaceflight participant. The language for tourists up to the ISS, they would likely be bumped off of that flight. MS-16 is currently a two-person flight, so we would add a third to that flight. So this, you know, not unexpected. Obviously, a bad look for NASA, a bad look for Boeing and SpaceX, Congress, even anyone that really has to do with commercial crew.

But I do think this is a smart move to do to extend the coverage of Soyuz flights out while we're in this commercial crew test phase. We've got DM-1 coming up this weekend, so we're in the thick of it now. But just in case anything does happen, in case anything does need to be reworked, it's smart to have coverage for the ISS if there are seats available. So going ahead and getting those seats is a good thing. I think it's a good idea. I think NASA should do it. But I just want to remind a Soyuz, so it's too late to get anything else. And this is what they've said time and time again, and nobody ever calls them out in Congress for this. And obviously, it's a political move to say that because it gives you a little more leverage. It puts people under the gun a little bit for funding Commercial Crew. But the last couple of years,

funding hasn't been the issue with Commercial Crew. In the early days, it was. It was hamstrung by funding levels. But recently, that's not been the case. And they've still been continuing this kind of fear-mongering. And it's just really annoying because as we're showing here, you can buy a Soyuz seat pretty quickly. There are Soyuz seats available and these tourists are doing it. We've got a UAE astronaut that was supposed to fly this year that we've bumped now a couple of times. These seats are available. You can get these seats. So I just really want to mention again that this is a lie that comes out every time and they are politically minded statements and that's fine. But when we're looking at the commercial crew situation, we're looking at Soyuz, we can always buy Soyuz seats.

So whenever you see a GAO report or whatever it is about how NASA is going to lose access to the station, the only way that's going to happen is if Soyuz has another major issue that delays us getting up to the station. We have another abort situation like we did a couple months back. Those are the issues that you want to look at if you're worried about abandoning the station. But buying more Soyuz seats, they're always going to be available. The Russians are hurting for cash. They're always going to be okay with us overpaying for Soyuz seats. And that's the way it is. So we're okay on the seats to the ISS front for a little while. Hopefully the commercial crew test phase goes well. But nonetheless, we've got coverage out to 2020 here. And I think that's a good sign. I just hate that

NASA is still fearmongering about how it's too late to buy more Soyuz seats. So thus ends my Soyuz soapbox. So that is all I've got for this little mini episode of Main Engine Cutoff. Remember, we've got another Q&A show coming up this week. So send in your questions if you've got them. Send in topics you want to hear me cover. And you'll be hearing from me in just a couple of days. But for now, thank you very much for listening this week. Head over to patreon.com slash Miko to help support the show. Or head over to managingcutoff.com to read the blog, check out the shop, do anything else there.

And remember, tell one friend this week about the show. And that will help greatly. So thank you very much for listening, and I'll talk to you in a couple of days.