Main Engine Cut Off - T+125: Andrew Jones

Episode Date: July 3, 2019

Andrew Jones returns to the show to update us on China’s various efforts. We talk Chang’e-4 and Yutu-2, the mysterious Long March 5 delay, and what the future of Chinese launch may look like. This episode of Main Engine Cut Off is brought to you by 39 executive producers—Kris, Pat, Matt, Jorge, Brad, Ryan, Jamison, Nadim, Peter, Donald, Lee, Jasper, Chris, Warren, Bob, Russell, John, Moritz, Joel, Jan, David, Grant, Mike, David, Mints, Joonas, Robb, Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut, Frank, Rui, Julian, Lars, Tommy, and six anonymous—and 244 other supporters. Andrew Jones (@AJ_FI) | Twitter Andrew Jones | The Planetary Society Andrew Jones - SpaceNews.com Chang’e-4 may have discovered material from the Moon’s mantle | The Planetary Society China’s moon, Mars and space station missions may be facing delays - SpaceNews.com Chinese commercial launch sector regulations released, new launch vehicle plans unveiled - SpaceNews.com Andrew Jones on Twitter: “Fantastic! This is yesterday's solar eclipse as seen from lunar orbit by a small camera on a tiny 45 kg satellite.” Email your thoughts, comments, and questions to [e-mail] Follow @WeHaveMECO Listen to MECO Headlines Join the Off-Nominal Discord Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Pocket Casts, Spotify, Google Play, Stitcher, TuneIn or elsewhere Subscribe to the Main Engine Cut Off Newsletter Buy shirts and Rocket Socks from the Main Engine Cut Off Shop Like the show? Support the show! Music by Max Justus

Welcome to Main Engine Cutoff, I am Anthony Colangelo, and today I wanted to check in on the Chinese space program. We don't talk a lot about it here on the show, but mostly that's because the show is generally about analyzing trends and things that are happening. And, you know, China is not the most open of the space program. So there's not always a lot of stuff to talk about, but every once in a while, I do like to check in, see what's going on there, talk about some things that are happening now on the horizon, but there's nobody better to help us do that than our friend, Andrew Jones. He's been on the show before, so I wanted to bring him back on to talk a little bit about Chang'e 4, about a long

March 5 delay that seems to be happening, and some other general things in the Chinese space program's development. So let's give him a call and talk to him about all things China. Awesome, you sound good. So you must not be too far out in the countryside, like you said. I'm walking on kind of a gravel kind of road. So nice. I don't know if you could. Yeah. So if you can hear the crunching, I can kind of stand still for a while. I like being in the environment with you. This will be a good show then. All right. So I don't want to take too much of your time. I know you're traveling or whatever is going on over there. All right, so let's talk about Chang'e 4.

They are in, was it the sixth lunar day that they're now in in that mission? Am I counting right? It's lunar day seven. Oh, seven. Oh, it's a full lunar week. All right, so things have been going well, it seems, for this mission. Yeah, so far it's been quite impressive. So if we talk about the rover, first of all, the one big thing they wanted to get past was the 114.8 meters,

which the U-2-1 rover managed to cover before it had a short circuit and was left stationary. So U-22 is now, I think, 212 meters into its roving in Von Karmann crater, and it shows no signs of having any major issues. So I think it

started quite quickly covering the first 100 meters in the first couple of days. Then it seemed to be slowing down. The roving rates went down to something like in the teens and around about 10 meters for a couple of days, but now back over 20 meters. So there's not been very many official updates on this and what's going on, but there's been some what they've called driving diaries from official social media in China, which reports about the space program. So these are kind of semi-official.

And the things that they've been saying is that I think on day four or five, they had an issue where the reflections coming off the solar arrays were kind of tricking the optical hazard avoidance into thinking that there's a crater or something there, some kind of hazard. So they had to kind of come up with a fix for this. And then in the last day, the issue that they had was communications with the Chui-Chiao relay satellites

in Earth-Moon Lagrange Point 2. So apparently that was caused by a cosmic ray strike, causing a bit error. So they haven't given very clear details, but it seems that they've had a few problems and they've managed to overcome them. So they've also managed to get some science papers out. So there was evidence of

material from the mantle, which could have been excavated by the nearby Finsen crater. And so they took these measurements with a optical spectrometer, and they claim that there's evidence of this

deeper material from under the crust. So now, what it seems that they need to do is take measurements from rocks, which they can find, rather than the regolith, and see if they can confirm what they're finding. And that would be of great interest to planetary scientists.

And I think what I'm told from one scientist who's close to the mission is that following this spectroscopy that they've been doing

is the the low frequency spectrometer on the lander which is basically the there's three five meter booms

sticking out of the lander so apparently the next paper will be something to do with that so I'm not quite sure what that's going to be. They were looking at doing a very low frequency survey of the sky. So they must have found something different,

maybe the emissions from the planets or the sun or something like that, that they've found something interesting or get a paper out on that. So, yeah, that's pretty much what's going on. It's pretty impressive to see them have such an advanced state of operations and, you know, pushing out science papers this quickly. Do you get the sense that this is significantly more advanced than the first go-around

with the rover on the moon, or maybe they just weren't as open back then? Not that they're particularly open nowadays, but I'm wondering if there's a huge difference internally or if it's just the external differences that we're noticing this time around. It's very hard to judge. I mean, maybe they've just learned lessons

from going through the process of working through a mission and processing the data and so on and getting to the publishing stage. So, yeah, that's a very interesting question, but I don't really have an answer. Yeah, I know. I mean, it's impossible to tell. It's all conjecture at this point. I mean, it is good that, you know the the biggest thing last time was that uh the the rover wasn't able to make it as far because i think it was what was certain parts exposed and they were getting maybe cut up by the lunar surface uh and kind of affected its actual functioning and this time they've hardened it quite a bit uh and that's why it's lasted so much longer this time around at least that's that's as i've as i've

read in the past maybe i'm misremembering that, but that seemed to be a significant area of work for them and apparently very successful in that. Yeah, that's my understanding as well. So is there anything going on with the lander these days, or is that part of the mission still active or kind of old news at this point? Well, I suppose they got the one thing that they wanted to get out

was the panoramic image of the landing site, so they've done that. So then, as I say, there's this low-frequency spectrometer for very low-frequency astronomy, which is not possible from the Earth because of the ionosphere. And also being on the far side of the moon protects from the radio interference from the Earth as well.

So it's going to be very interesting to see what comes out of that. And then they have this German experiment, which is looking to detect neutrals. So that's looking at what the radiation environment is, and that would have applications and inputs for future crewed missions to the moon. So that's the idea. I haven't heard anything from that payload recently,

so I'll chase up with that. But the indication is that everything seems to be running okay. The other thing on the relay satellite, they're slowly deploying the Netherlands-China low-frequency spectrometer, or the instrument there. But I don't think that's still deployed. So they've been kind of deploying a meter at a time with these three antennae. And I think they're calibrating.

And so in the next few months, they might be taking full, proper readings. So, yeah, we'll be hoping to get a bit of an update on that. That's gone very quiet, and obviously the land and the rover take all of the attention. Yeah, that's the word. Yeah.

All right, so that's all the good news. Everything's good up on the moon, but let's bring it back down to Earth with this long March 5 situation. It sounds like the turbopump of their engine was the problem with that, the last launch that they attempted, and didn't go as well. So it sounds like you've heard of a recent static fire on that engine with a new turbopump, but no official word yet. Is that still where we stand today?

Yeah, that's pretty much it. it was uh two years ago yesterday actually when they the second launch of long march long march 5 which was supposed to be the second test launch and then they would have proceeded with the january 5 sample return which is going to be a really cool mission um And so they had a, they redesigned the engine, they isolated this YF-77 engine and the turbopump

for the oxidizer. The oxidizer turbopump is an issue. So they did a like a test firing of this I think it was in February 2018 and amazingly they had like a live firing of this, I think it was in February 2018. And amazingly, they had like a live streaming of that event

and everything looked to be going well. And then they said, okay, late 2018, we're going to launch the third Long March 5. Everything was looking good. They even showed images of the components in Tianjin

where they manufacture these. And everything looked like, okay, well, near the end of 2018 or early this year, they manufacture these. And everything looked like, okay, well, near the end of 2018 or early this year, they'll launch. But then there was nothing happening. So I was looking at these cargo ships, which are used specifically for transporting the Long March 5 components,

and they just didn't go anywhere. And there was no updates. And so I said, huh, what's going on? Then again, the start of the year, they said, okay, said okay this time already mid mid july so in a few weeks that would be when they're launching it came up to april again they had a new video and images of the long march 5 components apparently ready to be shipped and then the rumor is and it is only a rumor so we don't really know what's going on they had a static fire test and there was a problem. And so nothing's happening.

And there's no official update. I've spoken to someone who's kind of a bit removed from what's going on. And they said that, well, look, the last official word is mid-July when it's going to happen. But that's, you know, we haven't heard anything. And apparently there's been like warnings not to be discussing this kind of thing. when it's going to happen, but that's, you know, we haven't heard anything. And apparently there's been like warnings not to be discussing this kind of thing. So it's not even something that I want to chase up with people who might know because I don't want to put them in the position of, you know, yeah.

That's not a place that you want to be when you, if you're working in the Chinese space program, when you're specifically told don't talk about something. Yeah. So it's,, so it's probably not a good idea to go asking too many questions to some people because they simply can't answer or shouldn't. So, yeah, that's where we stand. So this is important for the space station

because the plan was, I think, that they announced at the start of the year was that they get the long march 5 flying again and then they would take a long march 5b which is the variant for lower orbit launches specifically the modules for the space station so they take a non-flight model to wun chang which is on hainan island which is the launch site model to Wanchang, which is on Hainan Island, which is the launch site. So they would kind of do integration and calibration tests with the payload, which would be the full-scale kind of boilerplate version of a new crewed spacecraft,

which would be like a successor for the Shenzhou and would be capable of going into deep space and facilitating lunar missions. And then the next flight then would be, if that was successful, then the Long March 5B, the second one, would then be able to launch the first module of the space station sometime in the second half of 2020 but that's looking like that's going to be delayed so january 5 was going to launch around december this year that's going to be delayed it looks like unless they can get things working very quickly and then the one i mean in terms of launch windows that's not such a big issue but then in late july early august next year is the launch window for the Mars mission, which they've been planning. So that's their first independent interplanetary mission.

So if they can't get things going by then, well, they're looking at a 26-month delay to that mission. So it's going to be a lot of pressure on this next launch, and it's going to be a lot of pressure on this next launch, and it's going to be a lot of pressure on getting this launch ready. So yeah, tough times. Yeah, and they've had a couple of other new vehicles in the works. The Long March 7 has had, I think it was two launches as of right now, and that's the thing that would replace the Long March 2F, the older generation of vehicles that use, you know, propellants that you don't want to really mess around with too much. But I haven't heard a lot on those new launch vehicles as of late. Is there still,

do you get the sense that they're focused on Long March 5, and then once that gets sorted out, they would push into these newer launch vehicles? Or are we going to be watching Long March 3Bs, you know, for eternity? Yeah, it's hard to say. There hasn't been much news on what the next missions they are planning with the Long March 7. So I think they were going to plan on launching and testing a variant which would, as you say, take over the Long March 3B. So, yeah, not good news for the villagers in Guizhou and Guangdong. That range.

Yeah, so I suppose they do have a lot of things going on in the sense that they're working on this Long March 8, which will be a vertical takeoff, vertical landing launcher, medium lift. And then, I suppose in the background,

the Long March 9, which seems a very long way off now, given that they can't get the Long March 5 working. What else? The Long March 11 might be worth mentioning as the last thing real quick. They just did a sea launch with that, which was pretty interesting to watch.

Do you have any sense of what sea launches will play into the future? Whether that's something, you's something just for Long March 11 or if that's something they might look to for even bigger vehicles I don't know to be honest because if you look at what's going on they're trying lots of things so Long March 6 they're trying to make

a reusable version of that then you have all the commercial launches which are being developed. And then there was a new one announced at the end of June, which would be something like the Long March 8th. So it kind of looks like they're trying to get capabilities in all kinds of areas. So light lift and reusable and expendable solid launches. So what the way forward is, it's very hard to say, to be honest.

So, and also CASC, the government space contractor, they're bringing out their own commercial, supposedly very competitive launches in the next few months. I mean, yeah, there was one called Dier Long, which should have been launched the first half of this year,

so that's been delayed. The military kind of contractor, which is a sister company to Kask, they were supposed to launch a Kuaizhou 11, which is kind of a larger version of the Kuaizhou 1A, which would be, again, a very competitive solid propellant launcher. They were talking about $5,000 per kilo, something like that.

So it's very hard to work out what they're actually planning on pursuing. It seems that they're trying a lot of things and seeing which things work out. Yeah. It reminds me a lot of where Russia's at right now, where they have all this talk about new vehicles and new launch vehicles, new families, but yet they keep flying old vehicles like Proton in Russia's case. They never seem to get to that next generation. So I hope at some point we'll get a little bit more info on these new launch vehicles from China, but I guess we'll have to wait and see because they're not going to talk about much until Long March 5B is sorted out. You mentioned in China 4, there was the total solar eclipse

yesterday. One of the microsatellites, which was launched along with the relay satellite last May, launched along with the Relay satellite last May. That managed to image the solar eclipse happening while in lunar orbit. So, I mean, that's a ridiculous image. But it's really worth taking a look at if you have the time. Yeah, I'm going to post the link in the show notes to your Twitter account at AJ underscore FI. Everyone should go follow you there. And you've got these photos up from this lunar or the solar eclipse. It's pretty incredible photo for such a small satellite to have captured.

So that's really cool. And I would recommend everyone give you a follow on Twitter because you're always tweeting out these kind of things that otherwise you wouldn't really see from the Chinese space program. So, Andrew, thank you so much for joining me on the show today. I'll let you get back to your day out there in beautiful countryside. My pleasure. Cheers. Thanks for the kind words. Thanks again for Andrew coming on the show. It's always great to talk to him and get the update on the latest from China. As always, follow him at AJ underscore FI. You can also find his writing in Space News, in the Planetary Society blog. I'll have all those links in the show notes to his work. It's definitely worth following along with if you want to know more about the Chinese space program. Before we get out of here for today, I want to thank everybody

that made this episode of Main Engine Cutoff possible. Thank you to the 283 of you supporting this show. If you want to help support this show, it's entirely listener supported. Head over to mainenginecutoff.com slash support and join the legions there. There are 39 executive producers who made this episode of Main Engine Cutoff possible. Thanks to Chris, Pat, Matt, George, Brad, Ryan, Jameson, Nadeem, Peter, Donald, Lee, Jasper, Chris, Warren, Bob, Russell, John, Moritz, Joel, Jan, David, Grant, Mike, David, Mintz, Eunice, Rob, Tim Dodd, The Everyday Astronaut, Frank, Rui, Julian, Lars, Tommy, and six anonymous executive producers. Thank you all so much for making this episode possible.

And as always, support the show at mainenginecutoff.com slash support. For now, that is all I've got for you today. Thank you all for listening. Enjoy the holiday here in the U.S. the next couple of days. And we'll be back talking some space news. We've got some good interviews coming up the next couple of weeks here for the month of July. So stay tuned for some good space talk coming up right here at mainenginecutoff.com. Thank you all so much.