Main Engine Cut Off - T+238: Rocket Lab Flies from Wallops Island (with Caleb Henry)

Episode Date: January 25, 2023

Caleb Henry of Quilty Analytics and I took a trip down to Wallops Island to watch Rocket Lab’s first Electron launch from the US. Listen to our conversation on the drive down to Virginia, a bit of me at the press site before launch, and the launch itself in wonderful stereo audio.This episode of Main Engine Cut Off is brought to you by 43 executive producers—Simon, Kris, Pat, Matt, Jorge, Ryan, Donald, Lee, Chris, Warren, Bob, Russell, Moritz, Joel, Jan, David, Joonas, Robb, Tim Dodd (the Everyday Astronaut!), Frank, Julian, Lars from Agile Space, Matt, The Astrogators at SEE, Chris, Fred, Hemant, Dawn Aerospace, Andrew, Harrison, Benjamin, SmallSpark Space Systems, Tyler, Steve, Theo and Violet, and seven anonymous—and 826 other supporters.TopicsTwitter thread of our tripMain Engine Cut Off, Spacey Space: “Pretty great day trip down to Wallops to see the Rocket Lab flight! Electron really has a kick, I was impressed. Beautiful and delicate second stage plume, too. A+++++ would do again.”Caleb Henry (@CHenry_QA) / TwitterQuilty Analytics (@QuiltyAnalytics) / TwitterQuilty AnalyticsRocket Lab Debut Launch from LC-2 - 'Virginia Is For Launch Lovers' - YouTubeRocket Lab Successfully Launches First Electron Mission from U.S. Soil | Rocket LabRocket Lab launches first Electron from Virginia - SpaceNewsThe ShowLike the show? Support the show!Email your thoughts, comments, and questions to [e-mail] @WeHaveMECOFollow @[e-mail] on MastodonListen to MECO HeadlinesJoin the Off-Nominal DiscordSubscribe on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Pocket Casts, Spotify, Google Play, Stitcher, TuneIn or elsewhereSubscribe to the Main Engine Cut Off NewsletterMusic by Max JustusArtwork photo by SpaceX

Hello and welcome to Main Engine Cutoff, I am Anthony Colangelo, and I am fresh back from a long road trip down and back yesterday to Wallops Island, Virginia. Went down to see the first Electron launch that Rocket Lab carried out from their new launch pad down in Virginia, right next door to the Antares pad. It's been a while since I've been down to Antares, but it was a fun day. I drove down with Caleb Henry of Quilty Analytics, formerly of Space News. You've heard him on the show a couple times before. He lives not too far from me now in Philadelphia, so I convinced him to ride down with me. And it was a long day for sure, but it was really cool to go down and see Electron. So what you'll hear

here is some conversation. We threw the mics on while we were driving down to Wallops, so we talked for somewhere between 30 and 40 minutes, just me and Caleb talking about Rocket Lab, 30 and 40 minutes, just me and Caleb talking about Rocket Lab, Electron, and it got wandering from there, as long drive conversations tend to do. So I think you'll enjoy the conversation, picking Caleb's brain about, you know, he's so knowledgeable about the satellite industry generally, the space industry from terms of a business perspective. So really fun just kicking around a couple of topics with him. And I did record some launch audio as well. I was thoroughly impressed, as you'll hear, at what this thing sounded like. I'll talk more about that after you hear the audio at the end.

So I hope you enjoy the random musings of our road trip down to Wallops. All right. Let me make sure I get on the right road first. Yeah, it's very important. Otherwise, this will be too long of an episode. All right. Well, here we are, Anthony and Caleb, road trip through the Delmarva Peninsula. We've been driving through Delaware farms for about three hours at this point. More or less. And we were shockingly to Caleb in Maryland, because you know that because everyone in Maryland,

I think it's a state law that you have to fly a Maryland flag in your front yard. So we're in Maryland. We're almost here. We're going down to Rocket Lab and their first Electron launch. It's not their first try at this launch. It's like their 10th. First Electron launch in the U.S. First Electron launch in the U.S., I should clarify.

Sorry, I was distracted by the bulk clamshells sign there at this farm. Bulk clamshells. I think that sign said free chicken. Free chicken. We got to turn. Pause. We're in a really weird spot. Alright, a couple things I'm curious about for this launch. Number one, we're debating what it's going to look like.

If Electron is going to look like it's really fast because you told me that Arianespace has some rule that smaller rockets go faster. Yeah, what I remember from, so I've been to two Arianespace launches. I've never seen a US rocket launch, so I'm very excited. First time doing this. But I've seen an Ariane 5 and that one takes off pretty slow because it's kind of a beast So it's got to like get some heft before it gets up and gets going and then there's Soyuz Which as you could expect is kind of in the middle So, you know it gets going and then it's off and then Vega I never saw but I was told that it just zips off

The pad that one's a monster you light it and it's gone. Yeah, so with electron This is gonna be less though because that's solid. Solid's really flying. Yeah, yeah, that's true. Still a tiny rocket. I'm curious to see how loud this is. I've only seen an Antares from Wallops. We're very close. Where we're going to stand, I think we're going to the same press site,

will be like two miles from the launch pad, which is going to be awesome. The other thing I'm peeping, though, is... They tweeted that image last week of the tent that they built to build Neutron. Number one, we should find that. So let's look up where that is. The Neutron tent.

We've got to find the Neutron tent and then see what else they're cooking in the area. They've got this payload facility somewhere nearby. I probably should have looked these things up on the map so we could drive by them because we're going to have to work. We have the map. We have time. Let's look that up. Because I'm just curious, like, what they're going to fly from here normally. You know?

Is it DOD missions primarily? Like, what is their actual, what's your take on what they're actually building this launch site for? Yeah, I imagine it has to be a lot of DOD missions and then just US customers. I think this first mission here from Virginia is going to be Hawkeye 360, a US company. It is probably a lot easier to get US customers to a US launch site than it is getting them down to New Zealand. I think the New Zealand spaceport, from a regulatory and airspace perspective, has a lot more flight opportunities, but just also the convenience of just going to your customer.

I think it's a must for a lot of future military missions. It's certainly going to be an advantage that they want to fly NASA missions. And again, for the commercial sector, I think it just streamlines a lot of things I feel like they probably had the neutron plan in their heads longer than they let on and that because when they were looking for a US site they were like maybe Cape Canaveral

and then they ended up at Wallops because I guess the frequency that they're going to fly is not so high that they can't support it here. But also, Canaveral's really busy now, so they like how this is empty and they can kind of run the place. Yeah, I was surprised, but I think it's a welcome addition to the Virginia coastline. I always hoped that Wallops would have more stuff. It was like it was right there, especially when I was living in D.C.

I wanted to have a space for it to go to. It was like you had one or two launch items a year. You move 3 hours north and you're just as far away from DC. It's true. From Philly now it's the same. And you have a road trip partner now. Yeah I got a buddy. Here we go road trip number one. Neutron is obviously their big focus because they're trying to get that off within like two years. And that feels like the timeline is driven by them wanting a part of that third round of National Security Space Launch, which they're going to put out a draft proposal or draft rules for that sometime this spring, I think it was. The Space Force, that is. And they're thinking about it different than they have the past rounds,

which it was like they picked two winners up front and divided a certain amount of missions between the two. They're thinking about it, or potentially going about it a different way this time, that would let other people that don't necessarily meet all the requirements of those orbits into the program. So Neutron is probably trying to have some leg into that program. So Neutron is like probably trying to have some leg into that program. Certainly. They can carry Falcon 9-ish payload, right? Reusably? Something in that range. Eight tons, reusably or something like that? Yeah, yeah. And then I think it's closer to double that in the expendable configuration. Yeah, which that's news to

me they were gonna do that. They didn't say it when they first announced Neutron. It was like a year later Peter Beck gave their update and they he's like we're ditching the what was it the like for the hippo opening the fairing. Right, yeah, yeah that's right. Gone to the traditional fairing and oh by the way like the payload that we said it could lift that just reusable configuration. I'm curious about that. Like, that, because that's what, well, New Glenn, they've only ever said a reusable amount, right? Because I don't think they're ever flying expendable, or so they say.

So, part of me wonders about the change of pace there on Neutron, saying, like, it's only reusable to, well, you know, everyone's got a price we'll sink one of these things in the ocean if you want us to but i'm wondering how much that has to do with like the payload range that they need for because i did all right so here's my general framework is for that phase three thing right if space force has certain payloads that need to go direct to

geostationary that's still going to need falcon heavy vulcan etc new glen but there's payloads that need to go direct to geostationary, that's still going to need Falcon Heavy, Vulcan, et cetera, New Glenn. But there's payloads that go to low-Earth orbit or any of the Space Development Agency constellation satellites. What's the new name? We were talking about this earlier. Proliferated Warfighter. Space Architecture.

Space Architecture. All of those are going to have to look it up again. All of those are going to go to like typical constellation orbits. So Neutron would be in that range, but it wouldn't hit the really high orbit things, right? So, but there's no reason that they should prevent Neutron from having a part of the program. So I kind of feel like that the Neutron architecture is going to be built around what Space Force payloads can be launched that aren't going direct to GEO.

So here's my theory on this. I think you look back at the past NSSL competition. You had your four competitors. You had SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, and Northrop Grumman. And that was intense because you went from ULA, X number of years ago, it was just them. Then you had ULA and SpaceX, and they weren't happy about that. There was this whole discussion about,

can the market support splitting this between two players? Then there was a discussion about four, and I strongly believe that for the next competition, there's going to be six, at least six. You've got your returning players plus the addition of Relativity and Rocket Lab. And I would have discounted Northrop. I would have thought that after Omega didn't get funding

that they would have been done. But now this future vehicle that they're designing with Firefly, I think that they're going to try and find additional... Yeah, new Antares. I think they're going to try and find additional... Yeah, new Antares. I think they're going to try and find more utility for that launcher. So I imagine a reborn Northrop back in this competition, and for Rocket Lab, they must have looked around at the American launch landscape,

which is now just flooded with launch vehicles, potential launch vehicles, and said we need to have as versatile a vehicle as possible so that whatever DoD's criteria is, they have the means to select us for some portion of their missions. I feel like it's going to be more... I'm curious to see how they structure it,

because I feel like there's going to be the special i'm curious to see how they structure it because i feel like there's going to be the special straight to geo payloads that are done like phase two where they like pick two winners up front who can do those missions and i bet the rest will be like a commercial lunar payload services task order thing right where they put out a task order like we've got the new trench 3 of the PWSA going up and it's this much mass to this orbit, give us your best bid and that way they can on ramp

Neutron and Firefly and everything else but not anoint them like you will definitely fly flights because we don't actually trust that you'll be around that long you bring up the Firefly Northrop Grumman connection and I feel like, you will definitely fly flights, because we don't actually trust that you'll be around that long. You bring up the Firefly Northrop Grumman connection, and I feel like that reminds me of a wild theory that I had on All Phenomenal a couple weeks ago,

that I confirmed this, that I made a stray prediction that Lockheed Martin will buy Rocket Lab this year. And because the market is in a weird spot. Rocket Lab is burning some cash pretty good. They've got this new development going on. Lockheed Martin no longer has a commercial launch vehicle that they are selling actively. They have tight ties with ABL now.

They had formerly put in a couple of million into Rocket Lab back in the day as a strategic investment. And I could see them wanting to get Rocket Lab while the market's down, and they get that strategic asset. And I wonder if Northrop Grumman, right, when they announced that deal with Firefly, that was my thinking, was like,

Northrop Grumman needs to revitalize their launcher game. Maybe this is a way to dip a toe in and see if Firefly really is as good as they think it is and then buy them. And all of a sudden, we're back to, like, the same old people fighting over these launches. But everyone's kind of got their match, right?

Like maybe Lockheed's deciding between Rocket Lab and ABL as like a prime target for that sort of thing. But if all of a sudden the national security launch market is SpaceX, ULA, Rocket Lab, Firefly. Why not? I wonder, because you remember, so Lockheed, they have strong ties to ABL. I think a certain number, I think a large number of missions

that they're supposed to fly. Yeah, there's like 50-some that they pre-bought. With them. Lockheed also had the experience of flying the Athena rockets a long time ago. Oh yeah, out of Alaska, same spaceport. They're familiar with Kodiak, or the Pacific spaceport now. I'd be really curious

Lockheed's take on launch in general right now, because I think they have the experience of Athena, which was not hugely successful in the commercial domain. They tried to bring it back, but were unsuccessful. And that was a bigger, it was on the bigger end of small launch. Then they had Atlas, which historically was not very successful commercially. You know, technologically very successful. DoD payloads, you know, like great performance.

Hey man, right now that is the second best commercial rocket ever in actively flying in the US. Right now, yeah, right now it's fantastic. And they got all these missions for Kuiper, like they're in a great place. But before that, like historically, you know, they got like one commercial launch every two years. That's about their average. So they have to look at the market and say like this is a

very the place where we've been commercially challenged time and time again and I just wonder what their appetite is to to take on more risk there. I think if they were gonna get into this space my hunch is that they would be looking at it as something that's complementary to ULA and Vulcan. You know, does it make sense to have a vehicle that can take the lower end of the market, almost like Ariane's bus? We've got one vehicle for the high end, Ariane 6, and then something for the low end, Vega C. Should you have some sort of partner program there? And I think a lot of that also will depend on what future launch needs the DoD has and how that's split between, you know, I feel like I just want to call it the PLEO constellation.

I know they gave it the new name, but Space Development Agency's PLEO constellation and other programs, the legacy programs like WGS, GPS, things like that. I'm really curious if they're going to try and take this approach of filling out an entire orbital plane with a launcher. Because for a long time, the discussion around small launch was that these mega constellations were coming, small satellites, ergo small rockets. And what we see now is no, there's generally not an interest in that. What mega constellation operators want is to put up an entire ring or plane of satellites in a single launch. If you're going to have a constellation, and just say for whatever reason, hypothetically,

and just say for whatever reason, hypothetically, it's got 20 satellites per orbit, per ring, and then you've got 200 satellites. You want to have 10 launches to fill out each of them one at a time. That is the most efficient way to do it. But for small launchers, will DoD take that approach and say efficiency is king, this is how we're going to do it, we're going to it based on like the most effective way to fill up the orbit or are we going to look at maybe trying to stimulate the launch market and break it up and have you know a smaller vehicle fill this orbit out maybe do 15 from this rocket and five from the other have the contingency

launch the operational ones with this and the spares with that. I'm curious because they know, I think DoD knows, the really significant influence it has on the U.S. launch market. And they're in a position where they can't say that they have no control over who lives and dies. So it's kind of an awkward place to be. DAN GALPIN- Well, it's only in the smaller end, though.

The bigger end of the market, the Space Force generally, I'm just using them as a stand-in for the DoD, they need the larger end of the market, meaning Falcon 9, Vulcan, and Falcon Heavy, and New Glenn, they need them more than those launch vehicles need Space Force right now. Because Amazon's just handing out launch contracts everywhere. Falcon 9's got its own mission and doing Starlink. So it's not as dependent.

But this middle tier, like the one-ton range, most of those launches that aren't just like a collection of CubeSats, you know, the NRO has taken a liking to Rocket Lab for a reason. Because they've got these 150-kilogram spacecraft that are going up all the time. Even companies like Hawkeye that kind of cater towards that segment of the market are taking a liking to these companies. But there's not, you know, one web, as we were talking about earlier, pulled out of that Virgin Orbit deal. That never really made any sense to me.

I don't understand why they were ever planning on that, launching 40 times at Virgin Orbit or whatever, though. Yeah, it goes back to the whole efficiency of launching it. It doesn't... Now, all of your small launch players that are on, like, the small end, like your Virgin Orbit or, you know, even your Electron, when you're looking at a bigger system,

they tend to think about these players in terms of launching prototypes or spares, and that's not something that supports like the main deployment phase of your Constellation. I think that's something that OneWeb realized too late. That's why they had sort of a litigious battle with Virgin to try and figure out what to do with these launches that they no longer wanted. I think that's why you see all of your new systems basically following this pattern of going to heavy lift. Yeah, buy the biggest thing available. And all of your small launch guys making rockets for that size, a la Neutron.

for that size, a la Neutron. What do you think, what do you make of Rocket Lab generally? In that they, like many other launch vehicle companies, have been trying to diversify into non-launch markets. They bought Sinclair Interplanetary, and now they're tweeting pretty much nonstop how many interplanetary missions they're a part of by way of this. Like, oh, we've got solar panels everywhere in the solar system. And it's like, well, they don't have Rocket Lab logos on them, but that's cool.

Like, let's go for it. Yeah, I think it's Rocket Lab and Redwire that have their fingerprints on, like, half of the U.S. 90% of the mission or whatever. It's just like anything that goes up, they're like, oh, we built that part. What do you make of that as a general push? Astra, similar spot, right? Their launch industry, their launch side of the industry is really hurting. They have Apollo Fusion now. Rocket Lab was kind of doing the same where, you know,

the financials weren't looking particularly good on the launch side. And the space system side now makes most of the cash flow. Yeah. Is this just a way to make cash flow or do you think that's like a legitimate thing? I think it says a lot about how tough it is to make money in the cash flow. Yeah. Is this just a way to make cash flow or do you think that's like a legitimate thing? I think it says a lot about how tough it is to make money in the launch space. It truly is a difficult business. There's the old cliche,

which I've heard 80 million times and unfortunately I'm going to be the one that parroted it again now. How do you make a million dollars in the launch sector? You know the rest. Rocket Lab, they looked at that. They also realized that their, my guess is that they realized their launch cadence was not scaling as rapidly as they anticipated.

Wanting to get to 52 launches a year was the old target. They're not there yet. I think they are getting close to the halfway mark for that. They're not there yet. I think they are getting close to the halfway mark for that. But if you want to bring more revenue in faster, then you've got to diversify. And they've done that. I also think that there is this growing fascination that the whole space industry has had with the as-a-service model, believing that that has the potential to have much higher margins.

And I look at what Rocket Lab is doing, offering a lot of this turnkey service. I don't know where they are in terms of ground segment stuff. I don't know if they have their own antennas or a third party agreement for... They signed some deal with KSAT a couple years ago, right? Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me. But being able to take over as much of the space part of the mission for prospective customers and just letting them get the data that they want down

from a sensor in orbit or run their communications network, whatever it is that they're doing, that's something that a lot of companies are trending towards, and Rocket Lab has certainly bundled together a lot more services. I think they're in a premium position for that kind of thing. I'm really curious how that's also going to scale up with Neutron, if that's something they can continue to do with Neutron, or if this is something that just happens to be

right-sized for Electron electron with photon as their platform. And I'm also wondering how many subatomic particles they're going to have in their lexicon. They skipped proton for obvious reasons, but what's going to be next? That one was a little weighted. That is interesting. I wonder if they'll have a bigger satellite bus that they would roll out alongside Neutron. That one was a little weighted. That is interesting. I wonder if they'll have a bigger satellite bus that they would roll out alongside Neutron.

Yeah, I think the ones, and now I need to go back and check, but I'm pretty sure the ones that they're building with MDA for Global Star are much bigger. At last check, I think the mass was around 500 kilograms or more. Oh, that's way bigger. Yeah, that was too big to fit on Electron, I forgot about that. I think the mass was around 500 kilograms or more. Oh, that's way bigger. Yeah, that was too big to fit on Electron, I think. Oh, way big, yeah. Way too much bigger.

Which is really interesting. Good English right there. Hmm. I haven't considered them getting into like satellite bus, like bigger satellite buses. Yeah, well the Global Star deal was huge for them. It gets them into... I forgot about that. Yeah, it's a whole steady... Is that related to the Apple thing?

It is, yes. So Apple is loaning them. No, no, what's happening is Apple is going to reimburse Global Star. Global Star has to borrow the money to pay for the system to build the satellites and then yeah i honestly i don't know why apple has chosen that approach you know i'm as you know i'm team android so i don't know i don't know how apple does a lot of their stuff but the the impression that i've gotten is that Apple really likes being vertically integrated. Yeah.

You know, they also like their custom adapters and all those things. All right, we're getting into this whole thing. I wonder if they'll have a custom payload adapter just for Global Star. It's got dongles. They've got a special dongle. Sorry, you guys, you have to use this. Sorry, we don't have Ethernet. You've got to use this Ethernet to light the port. And it's not going to work for any other rocket or anything after this. So, sorry.

Anyway. No, Apple's thing with GlobalStar is that Apple, in the areas in which they don't run the thing that they're working with, they like to be able to push whoever that is around. Okay. And GlobalStar, you are the expert here, so you can override my theory, but of all the potential partners that apple looked at the market global star was the one they could push

around the most and that's why they went there that's that's that's exactly how apple i think that's fair because if they iridium was the one that they were rumored like there was rumors about who it was going to be right iridium is a much stronger company but then so they just signed like the thing with... Qualcomm. Qualcomm. So that's where that rumor was sourced. But yeah, Rydium is like a functional business at the moment.

And GlobalStar's numbers were looking like, ooh, I don't know where you're getting all that cash from in the future. But yeah, so... Because I mean, even Apple, after the announcement went out, it was like, GlobalStar expects their Apple thing to be 85% of their revenue. Yes. So that's a pretty astounding amount for a brand new customer. The deal is simultaneously amazing and terrifying.

Because if you're going to have to borrow all of the funds for your Constellation, I mean, if you look at GlobalStar's revenues, kind of if you look at global stars revenues you know they it was very tough to me to see how they were going to finance a third generation constellation knowing that they did eventually need to pay for one right to remain competitive to remain competitive to just to exist so do you think that this was their way of like well apple, Apple will fund this part of our future, so maybe we can figure out a way to survive beyond this particular deal, but the Apple money is a good start? Or do you feel like GlobalStar is still on a glide path to irrelevance? I think GlobalStar has for a long time sought to monetize its spectrum. to monetize its spectrum.

It's been largely a spectrum play as opposed to a company that hedged its growth on the satellite communications sector. I think they have had, they've benefited from kind of the rising tide of IoT everywhere. Everybody was getting into IoT. They already had a system that was up there. And so they have found a way to generate more revenue in a way that's

helped them but they really did need like something new to help them out and for Apple to come in and offer this service you know this emergency SMS service through their system you know gave them the anchor customer that they always needed. Going back to Iridium, Iridium has DOD as an anchor customer. They got their EMSS contract that's like seven years, and I want to say it pays like $100 million a year, roughly. That's comfortable. It helps.

Most satellite operators have a significant chunk, commercial satellite communications operators have a significant chunk of their revenue that comes from the government, particularly DOD services. And Global Start didn't have that. And Global Start didn't have that. So for them to find Apple as a customer that is going to indirectly bankroll them is nice. Now, what makes me scared for them is the fact that they're requiring them to go and borrow money or otherwise obtain it, which essentially means borrowing it, and then coming back and reimbursing them for that later the last large constellation that I remember that borrowed a bunch of money and got in

trouble for it was one way so you remember what initially appeared to be an equity investment by Softbank turned out to be debt. And when things got tight at OneWeb, there was the expectation, based on publicized statements that SoftBank had made about how we're in this for the long run, we're patient, we know what this takes. When rubber met the road, SoftBank wasn't that patient. And now OneWeb...

SoftBank had some other stuff going on at the moment, too. They did. SoftBank wasn't that patient and now one way I had some other stuff going on at the moment. They did. SoftBank really in a weird spot at that moment. SoftBank's you know kind of implosion yeah it was a whole other debacle you know we work and everything things not related to the space sector but but the bottom line at the end of the day, they sunk over a billion dollars into what was at the time the second largest satellite constellation known in the world, SpaceX being the only one that had promoted anything bigger than that. They knew it was going to take years to launch. They knew it was going to take years to revenue. And they cut the rug out from under them in a really short order.

So it makes me nervous to see companies that don't generate a lot of revenue take on a lot of debt, and that's just kind of finance 101. It could put them in a difficult place if things don't play out well. Especially that the feature that Apple is using GlobalStar for is going to be a thing that is available to everyone's unmodified cell phones in like four years' time, right? Like two years to roll things out, maybe four or five years until those services are actually turned on with a lot of people's networks.

What's the timeline there? Because that has to be a huge threat what they're actually building the change from one or two startups that only industry insiders had heard of to heavyweight Titans getting into this it was like night and day all of a sudden it's become a race and it's become competitive and you've got like you said there's one camp of people who are seeking to do this through unmodified handsets there's others that qualcomm i think i thought apple was modifying this it's they are that's what i'm saying yeah

is that they had to build a special thing and their iphone 14 that hooks in a global star but if i just wait it out with my iphone 13 mini that you will grab from my cold dead hands because i have tiny hands and i would like this tiny phone uh like i i don't know who's i'm on at&t so what is it link like who's the somebody's got something link in ast right yeah so i'll probably be able to do a similar service with my phone that apple and global start sign this big partnership for. And that's not something that people that are Apple customers will be able to use those services.

So why would they then pay money for the Apple specific feature, or better yet, why would Apple keep paying GlobalStar if they can get this service? DAN GALPIN- Some of us like bigger phones. DAN GALPIN- You like having a very directional antenna. Number one, you would never buy the iPhone 14, which is a whole thing we should get into later. You would have to force that into my cold, dead hands.

But I think I'm just caught up on that from GlobalStar's end. Is this feature unique enough that they should take on that much debt? Let me flip this a more optimistic way. to, like, I guess, okay, let me flip this a more optimistic way. What is it that Global Star would be building into these new generation of satellites that could live beyond the Apple partnership that would be worth the investment, right? Because if they just see the Apple money as a way to fund a future plan, do you know what I'm getting at here? Yeah, so I think for Global Star in general, oh, now we're in Virginia.

We're in Virginia. Made it all the way to the Va of Delmarva. All right. So I think for Global Star, at the end of the day, if Apple were to fall out, if their agreement was terminated, they still want to figure out how to monetize their spectrum. they still want to figure out how to monetize their spectrum. They've looked at ways of taking their satellite spectrum and applying it on a terrestrial level. Getting to use this by connecting cell phones,

that's the prime opportunity right now. If that didn't happen, they still need a satellite system in order to hold on to their spectrum asset. So it's still important. And frankly, I think that the Gen 3 system that's been described, if memory serves me right, it's 17 satellites with an option for nine more. 17 sounds like way too small of a number to provide a compelling emergency service. You're going to have to wait for the satellite to come over your area and then send a signal,

and then you're going to have to wait to receive another message. It's not going to be fast with that small of a number of spacecraft. it's not going to be fast with that small of a number of spacecraft. So I think eventually they're going to have to build out something bigger if they want to have a really robust service. And then, like you said, the competition is getting more fierce. And what most players are looking at is starting with an SMS service, at is starting with an SMS service, a texting service, and expanding into voice calls, into data, into, you know, people have even thrown around the term 5G. I'm a little skeptical if they'll be able to do 5G. That's never been a term used for marketing and above all technical

reality, right? So, but people are going to try and do more and more and more. And I'm curious, I don't think many technical specs have been stated about the Gen 3 system. Global Star's Gen 2 system is certainly dated at this point. You know, those are older satellites. And I think this does give them a really prime opportunity to take advantage of things like digital payloads and improved cybersecurity and cloud functionality, even virtualized networks, like lots of advances in hardware that just weren't available when the Gen 2 system was being built and launched. was being built and launched. So I'm hoping that they build in a lot more

and enable the system to be really flexible so that they can go after more IoT customers. Maybe they could still go and try and do some sort of direct device service. I imagine they have to have contingencies because it's just dangerous to hedge your entire business around one customer. Having a new system,

you know, gives them the opportunity to build in features that others may not always have. All right, we're getting close to Wallops. So the last segment on our drive to the launch if you would like to partake in Caleb's SPAC bet. You had some prediction when we were at the launch the other day that a bunch of SPACs were going to go under soon. Oh yeah. And I'm curious what is your give me like a Caleb reality ranking of SPACs most likely to not exist this time next year. Oh. What are the ones on watch? So Astra's on its way to getting delisted. I don't know if I'm going to make... I don't want to make enemies on...

Don't make enemies. On the... Let's just talk about it. My prediction is that between one and four... One and four. ...SPAC companies will disappear. There's not that many more than four. So...

What? There's like 14. Is there 14? That's a significant proportion, though. That's a lot. Yeah than four. So what? There's like 14. That's a significant proportion. That's a lot. Yeah. I think that upwards of a quarter to a third of the companies that have gone public via SPAC could delist by the end of this year. Does that also include, if my prediction comes right, that Lockheed buys Rocket Lab? I had not factored that in. No. I had not factored that in, no. I think that there's companies that are low, that are burning more cash than they're bringing in. You mentioned Astra, which has already been threatened with delisting because their stock price is under a dollar. So it's not a good look. I think that

there are companies that might look like good M&A targets, not only in the launch world, but also in other sectors that have gone public. I'm trying to remember how many sectors had SPACs. You've got some hardware ones. You've got some Earth observation. You've got various remote sensing. And you've got some telecommunications. I think that some of them will get bought.

I think some, one them will get bought. I think some, one or more will fold. I think some will find clever ways to extend their runway into 2024. And I'm hopeful that some will use the funds that they got to really, you know, catapult themselves to more successful positions. You know, I think some are going to be really healthy. You know, like I think, well, I guess I can, I'll name drop. I think Planet has done really well, you know, in terms of, you know, they raised like $490 million or something before the SPAC and then raised 500 some odd million and are in a position.

They've got the EOCL contract plus a healthy set of commercial customers, like they've positioned themselves well and the SPAC wasn't contingent, you know, completing the SPAC wasn't the thing that makes it so there will be a successful business. It's not like that's funding all of their future. But for companies that needed the SPAC funds to make their business a success, and then when they find that those SPAC funds are insufficient, especially in an economy where there's supply chain issues, there's concerns around, you know, the R word, supply chain issues there's concerns around you know the r-word recession you know there's a pullback in investing it's it's a confluence of negatives that I fear may capsize a company or four well on that note let's go watch one of

the spec companies try to launch a rocket while they're building another one. This should be a happy thing. I'm excited to see this launch. Well, and Rocket Lab feels like one of the more functional SPACs. I was still skeptical that they decided to go SPAC. The ones I'm really skeptical about are like intuitive machines that they've floated going public via spec. I mean, Rocket Lab is making revenue.

They've got revenue and they've got diverse sources of revenue. They have a plan to increase their launch rate, go into additional services. You know, I think they're doing a lot of strong company moves. So I would, if I saw them disappear, yeah, I do think it would be through M&A.

I have no guess as to who would try and do it. But I would be really surprised if they disappeared in any other way. In any other way, yeah. In the near term. Well, what else we got from here? Well, we're going to go see the launch. So we're going to hang out at Wallops. We're going to go to the press site and watch the launch.

I think I might be able to talk to some Rocket Lab people while we're there. And assuming the rocket goes off today, I'm going to record some good audio of whatever Electron sounds like from this far. We may be some of the closest people that have ever been to an Electron that flies, by the way. Because I don't know how close you can get to the one in New Zealand, even if you're Peter Beck. I don't know what the limit is, but the one in New Zealand, like even if you're Peter Beck. I don't know what the limit is, but the public's like 15 miles away

in Mahia. So, I think we're going to be some of the closest people ever. Yep. I got my camera. I'm going to try to take some pictures. Yes. Could be a cool jellyfish. So, Caleb Henry, launch photographer, coming soon to a thing near you. Alright, bye everybody.

Alright, we are out at the press site here at Wallops. Nice little chilly night by the water. Beautiful sunset, perfect skies, no wind, so weather looks like it's going to be good for launch. So hopefully we get a launch here in about an hour. We did see the Neutron site on the way in, the new tent that they put up to build Neutron out, which is cool. The tent is very, as Caleb remarked, a little Starbase-like.

So we'll see what goes on in there, how much visibility we have into it. Not sure it'll be much, knowing how secretive Rocket Lab likes to be. But it's cool being down here. It's not a very well-attended launch from a press perspective. There's, I don't know, a dozen photographers. Not too many capital J journalists here, which is interesting. We were talking about whether that's a mix of it being a payload that is a commercial company that doesn't really have a big following in terms of,

you know, it's not like a DoD payload or NASA science payload. So it's, you know, less newsworthy. You don't have like the science writers coming out to talk about what kind of science mission it's going to be. You don't have people that cover NASA out here. You don't have a DoD defense writer out here. So that's kind of interesting that it's, and of course there's been a thousand delays of this mission from December all the way to now.

So that could be a part of it as well, that people didn't feel like continuing to hang out out here. So we'll see what happens with the launch. So enjoy whatever comes next in this podcast, since I don't know what that will be. Oh, there we go. Cool. That kicks. Yeah, but that kicks! Nå er det en av de fleste stående som har vært på denne vegen. So there you have it.

That is what an electron sounds like taken off from just over two miles away at the press site down there at Wallops. It's a really cool place to hang out. I was remarking how it's kind of like minor league Canaveral. There's a lot of similarities. You know, you're out in a wildlife refuge and it's beautiful nature, but you got these weird industrial rocket complexes nearby. It is different. There's a lot more farms up in

this area of the country than there are down in Florida, at least out by the Cape. It isn't as farmy as it is right by Wallops. I talking if you go you know miles south of wallops flight facility you're just in the middle you would think like you're in the middle of of miles and miles of farmland you would never know there's a rocket right next door uh overall i was thoroughly impressed with the show that electron put on i was expecting to be quite underwhelmed to be honest that was my expectation because when you pull up um you know there's this giant water tower at wallops that is it's something like three or four hundred feet tall it's really really tall um and even you know it makes antares look like a small rocket which it is a smaller rocket but

it is not necessarily a small rocket you know it's basically got atlas 5 engines under there and so that's always impressive to hear from two miles away but electron was tiny looking from that far like you're you're like, I think that's the rocket. That's yeah. It's that thing. It's the black thing with, you know, there's all the ice on it. It's fully fueled. Um, it's like really, really small from far away, but, uh, when it lit number one, it was bright as hell as you would expect. Number two, it really did pack a punch in terms of the, uh, the audio experience that it was. It was a lot of sound, really, really impressive in person, much more so than I was ready for.

And a really cool trajectory. You know, went straight up and then out through Orion. Just a beautiful night. We got to see some very gentle plume interaction with the upper atmosphere once it was high enough to catch some sun, since it was just a bit after sunset that this thing took off. But it was a really great experience. I would highly recommend if you're in the area,

checking out an Electron launch sometime. Sounds like they're going to have a lot of launches from here over the next year. At least a handful per year are going to fly out of here. And then, of course, the Neutron facilities. Neutron is going to be launching from pretty much the same spot. It is their bigger rocket that they're working on that puts it up into the Falcon 9 class, on the lower end of that at least. And we did get to drive by the tent that Rocket Lab has set up.

They don't have any branding on it, which is interesting. It's just this kind of nondescript tent where they're going to be building parts of Neutron. So really excited to see as that comes together. I'm sure as they get further down the line, I'll be able to go down and maybe take a tour of the factory and see some of the hardware at play once they get there. They say they're about two years away. There is a major implication, as I talked about on a recent show, with the Phase 3 National Security Space Launch Program that the U.S. Space Force is putting out a draft acquisitions document for in the springtime. draft acquisitions document for in the springtime. It seems likely, and I think you heard Caleb and I talk about this, that Neutron is going to have some part in that, depending on how the Space

Force structures that contract. So there is a pretty hard time limit on when they want this thing flying. And Rocket Lab is one of the most competent companies out there in terms of launch. I would love to see them hit schedules that they promised, which is 2024-ish on Neutron. Is it 2024 or 2025? I forget exactly where they pegged the date, but two or three years away is still really close for a launch vehicle, especially a launch vehicle of that scale. Yeah, I'm seeing 2024 is the date they announced when they announced it back in March of 2021. So we'll see exactly what shape that takes. You know, there have been some changes to the initial concept that they've talked

about, but the scale is quite a bit bigger than Electron and it definitely puts it into a different payload range. So, and of course the feasibility aspect is there as well. So overall, I think it's interesting that they're going to be making use of wallops so much. It is a, you know, plenty of room there to work. You kind of run the place if you are somebody that is more active in the space. There's a handful of Antares launched in a year, a couple of sounding rockets, maybe an occasional, you know, solid rocket like Minotaur or something that flies from there. But it's not very active compared to the Cape. And that is one of the reasons that Rocket Lab chose the site back in the day, that they could

have a say over the schedule and they don't get pushed off as much of the range time as they do if they were down in Cape Canaveral. So that's a huge aspect of things. There are some considerations about what inclinations you can hit. It's probably not going to be the best for geostationary type orbits, but that's probably okay. The one major consideration, and this is something Caleb and I talked about all day, and I heard from at least one other person when I was down there, that is getting people to join the team and work out there can be challenging. You know, it is pretty remote.

It is like three or four hours from anywhere of major population centers. It's pretty rural. So what, you know, if the talent that you're trying to attract is just not super enthused with moving there, what can you do to find the team that you need and base them there? You know, managing the workforce aspect seems like a big challenge for that part of the country. There's Cape Canaveral is hugely attractive because of the amount of industry that's down there. You're in Florida. That's a big benefit.

You know, SpaceX probably experiencing this a little bit with the Boca Chica stuff, but SpaceX also has that kind of like true believer draw, at least, you know, formally. We'll see exactly how everything shakes out with the Elon Musk drama, but they were able to draw people there because of their mission statement and the vision that they put out.

And there's a lot of people that want to be a part of that. Can Rocket Lab generate that kind of thing for, you know, Neutron? I don't know. Not quite sure. So that's a huge consideration. We'll see how that plays into their plans overall. But yeah, I mean, the more rockets that fly from within a day trip of me is going to be awesome. My parents got to see the upper stage plume from all the way up here in New Jersey, so

that was cool that they were taking pictures of the same launch that I was taking pictures of. So, it is a unique thing that the Northeast gets occasionally, and if we get more of that from Rocket Lab, I think everyone around here will be quite enthused with it. So really cool day to go down there. I highly recommend checking out the launches if you get a chance. But hey, I could not have done this kind of thing without the support that I get from all of you out there who like this show.

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