Main Engine Cut Off - T+316: New Glenn’s Second Launch, First Landing, and Upgrade Roadmap

Episode Date: November 26, 2025

Blue Origin is fresh off an incredible few weeks—a successful second launch and first landing of New Glenn, followed by an exciting unveil of upgrades to the vehicle, including an enormous new versi...on, New Glenn 9x4.This episode of Main Engine Cut Off is brought to you by 32 executive producers—Lee, Natasha Tsakos, Fred, Will and Lars from Agile, Ryan, Stealth Julian, Pat, Heiko, Kris, Jan, Better Every Day Studios, Theo and Violet, Matt, Josh from Impulse, Russell, Joel, Warren, Joonas, Joakim, Tim Dodd (the Everyday Astronaut!), Donald, David, Frank, Steve, The Astrogators at SEE, and four anonymous—and hundreds of supporters.TopicsBlue Origin’s New Glenn rocket came back home after taking aim at Mars - Ars TechnicaJeff Bezos on X: “Good overview of the landing. We nominally target a few hundred feet away from Jacklyn to avoid a severe impact if engines fail to start or start slowly. We’ll incrementally reduce that conservatism over time. We are all excited and grateful for yesterday…”New Glenn Update | Blue OriginBooster 18 suffers anomaly during proof testing - NASASpaceFlight.comSenate Commerce Committee schedules hearing on Isaacman renomination - SpaceNewsLawmakers writing NASA’s budget want a cheaper upper stage for the SLS rocket - Ars TechnicaThe ShowLike the show? Support the show on Patreon or Substack!Email your thoughts, comments, and questions to anthony@mainenginecutoff.comFollow @WeHaveMECOFollow @meco@spacey.space on MastodonListen to MECO HeadlinesListen to Off-NominalJoin the Off-Nominal DiscordSubscribe on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Pocket Casts, Spotify, Google Play, Stitcher, TuneIn or elsewhereSubscribe to the Main Engine Cut Off NewsletterArtwork photo by JAXAWork with me and my design and development agency: Pine Works

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello and welcome to mid-engine cutoff. I'm Anthony Clangelo, here to talk about a lot of Blue Origin news. It's been an amazing couple of weeks for Blue Origin, definitely the best in the company's history. Many things that we've been waiting on for years have now come to fruition. You know, I think it's hard not to feel like we're in a new era. in the industry. We had the December 2015 landing of a Falcon 9 booster, and then we've kind of been in that era all the way until now. A lot of the arguments that we've been having have not changed a lot over the years. We've been arguing about the same thing. We've been waiting for
Starting point is 00:00:44 the next upcoming milestones. We've been waiting for a real competitor to SpaceX in many different aspects of the industry, not only for commercial launches, but also the way that they impact space policy. And it's hard not to feel like this new Glenn moment that we're having right now is the transition to the next era. We've had an incredible second launch of New Glen. It flew Escapade on its way to first its staging orbit around L2, and then in about a year that I'll head out to Mars. The New Glen booster went on to land successfully on the ship, get recovered successfully, and we'll see exactly what the plan is with that booster. Are they going to refly it, or are they going to go, you know, take it back and inspect it and figure everything
Starting point is 00:01:25 out that they can from having that booster back? I assume it'll be the latter. But they've said in the past that they would go to refly this pretty quick. We'll see if that's true. But nonetheless, the next mission for New Glenn is to fly the blue moon mark one lander out to the moon and go for a lunar landing. They've been tweeting photos of it. It's in various stages of prep. But all these things happening, you know, it really does feel like a moment we will look back on in spaceflight history, the same way that we did and have always looked back on the Falcon 9 booster landing 10 years ago. Hot off the heels of that launch and landing.
Starting point is 00:01:59 Blue Origin announced the upcoming roadmap for New Glenn, and I think that's where it gets really interesting, not only from the technical perspective, but strategic and political perspectives as well. There's a ton of variables in the cards right now with the Jared Isaacman renomination making its way through, and what may or may not happen to Artemis, what may or may not happen to the Chinese Lunar Program. There are so many things that this New Glenn announcement I think impacts in really interesting ways and in ways that really only SpaceX has affected these conversations in the past.
Starting point is 00:02:33 And now we're starting to get someone else influencing things in a really interesting way. And so, you know, you think between this New Glenn launch and landing, the Blue Moon launch, hopefully Rocket Lab Neutron is not too far behind here going into 2026. But this is a real pivotal couple of months, couple of years that we're seeing in the industry right now.
Starting point is 00:02:54 so really good times if you're somebody that is interested in the industry at large it's hard not to be really excited for what we're seeing and I know a bunch of people from blue listen to the show so pumped for you excited for finally making it to this point and having such success with the vehicle it's it's uh I don't know what the last thing was that felt as good as watching that you know probably some of the early starship uh maybe the booster catch the starship booster catch um probably the last time, right? Just, so it's not that long ago, but it does feel like forever ago,
Starting point is 00:03:29 honestly, with everything that that program's been through, which is going to be a big part of the show, too. So let's jump in. I don't know, honestly, that there's that much more to say about this long. I always kind of feel silly that there are these huge milestone launches that I've spent an almost literal decade talking about.
Starting point is 00:03:45 And then when it happens, it's like, yep, it did the thing. Like, we've talked about this so much, And it's been, and it could be the fact that my show tends to be, you know, a little bit forward-looking, right? Two to five years out tends to be where I like talking. And so we feel more prepared when these things finally do come to pass. And I don't always need to market with a show because I don't have that much to add about the fact that this was a fantastic launch. So luckily, Blue Origin delivered with a roadmap for New Glenn that was announced a couple of days after this great success, which I thought was also, the timing
Starting point is 00:04:22 is strategic for sure the management of the media from this perspective is great too because you got all this good press about the landing and then you got all this good press about the upgrade path you kind of got
Starting point is 00:04:34 this storyline extended out over a two-week or a two-story week-long period right? But the upgrades are what you would expect, right? That's the funny thing about this is that if I made you write down
Starting point is 00:04:48 okay, Blue Origin was successful with Nuceland, what is the upgrade path for the vehicle? You would probably say, upright the rocket engines, sub-cool the propellant, stretch the tanks. Maybe add a couple engines, right? Like, that is the path, bigger faring. It's nobody really thought we needed a bigger faring, but we'll get to that. And that's exactly what the upgrade path is here that they've sketched out. So some of these things they're already working on, the uprated thrust on these engines is already in progress. They've tested this on the stand. So the B.E3Us are going to be upgraded from 320,000 pounds of force, up to 400,000. They've already demonstrated,
Starting point is 00:05:22 and that's total thrust, the two on the upper stage, right? They've already demonstrated more than 211,000 pounds of thrust from 1B3U on the test stand. So they're on the way to having north of 400 on that stage. On the first stage, they're working on an upgrade of the 7 BE4s that would fly to give them another half million pounds of force for the first stage. And they've demonstrated up to that amount, including the fact that... they're going to be doing propellant sub-cooling. So a densified propellant like we've seen with Falcon 9 over the years where you're able to fit more propellant into the vehicle by cooling it down, gets denser, you get performance enhancements from that. And that's going to push the
Starting point is 00:06:00 thrust and the payload capacity of Nuclan even higher than it is already, which, you know, over the years we've heard about concern that the stated goal for Nuclens payload is not where they actually were when they're flying this vehicle. And I, much like I tend to disregard people talking about the timelines of things, right? Like, there's always a big storyline of this project is later than they said it would be. It's like, yes, it is. And I know you have to write that story, but it's also how it was always going to be. And I feel the same way about these stories.
Starting point is 00:06:29 We see the stories at Starship. We see it with New Glenn. We see it with Vulcan. We see it with any launch vehicle that has put out their performance numbers. You get a story of like, well, the first three that they launched were very much short of that goal. And it's like, that is actually kind of the circle of life. You know, mass is growing. Performance is not there yet.
Starting point is 00:06:47 The combination of those things means your first vehicle off the pad has nowhere near the performance that you have designed it for, but you get into these kind of updates where you are putting more propellant in the vehicle, you're operating the engines, you're trimming mass from different areas of the vehicle as you get through the initial testing of the vehicle, you get into optimizing the production, and you end up with an optimized vehicle that is able to hit the metrics that you've stated previously. So are these the things that lets them put 40 tons to low Earth orbit with this version of New Glenn? probably. Does it matter that much overall? Not really. But what they did announce is a whole new version of New Glenn that was even longer, even bigger, even better. So they also established a naming scheme. I have a whole thing about naming, I guess is always the thing that I want to rant about. So the version of New Glenn that we're seeing fly now is New Glenn 7-2, 7x2, right? 7x2. Somebody out there, I mentioned all those people at work blue. Can you just send me a quick, How do you pronounce it in spoken English?
Starting point is 00:07:49 Right, it looks cool, 7x2. But is that how you say it internally? I don't know what you're going to say. The 7-2, you're just going with the numbers. So that's 7 inches of the first stage, 2 on the upper stage. They announced the New Glen 9-4. Nine engines in the first stage, four on the upper stage. That also brings with it stretch tanks, a bigger faring.
Starting point is 00:08:07 So instead of just 7 meters, you know, right in line with the diameter of the vehicle, this is going to be bumping out to 8.7. so it'll have that traditional kind of hammerhead design of a faring to get out to 8.7 meters of a fairing. I don't know if that's internal or external. It doesn't really matter for the points I'm about to make about this faring. But it's absolutely enormous. I mean, even the 7 meter faring is absolutely cavernous for most payloads. I'm sure there are space station payloads or really large space telescopes that will max that thing out. But up until then, I don't know who's using all 7 meters of it. the 8.7 thing I think is
Starting point is 00:08:43 they can support it with this longer, bigger, better vehicle and I think there's more strategic importance behind it than functional like oh thank God that last 1.7 meters is there I've been dying to make use of it we'll get to that part in a couple minutes there are a couple other odds and ends that they had in this announcement before we get too distracted with the big new glen newer glen some would say reasonable farings they're going to be moving to that to help them out with flight
Starting point is 00:09:08 rate and not having to produce those big farings as much which is unfortunately obvious at this point. They've got lower cost tank designs. They've got a better thermal protection system for the first stage booster to help them with turnaround time. It's kind of a funny thing to state when you've just got your first one back. It's like, well, maybe your first one was kind of good,
Starting point is 00:09:25 and you just didn't know it yet. But they say they're going to start phasing these things in with NuglN3. So that could be the better performing engines. It could be some of the densified propellant. Who knows exactly? You probably got to put those things in tandem, because you're going to be having more propelling on the vehicle. If you densify it,
Starting point is 00:09:42 you've got to have higher thrust engines, which all around helps your payload numbers. So it sounds like that might be the first thing to go. But I do think that's a really important point for them to make, that this isn't just, you know, they had the first launch success, and now they're getting, you know, hot over their skis and they want to announce all the stuff that's coming. They're working on these things now. They've proven out these things on the test stand in some cases. People have been working on this for months, for years, on the New Glenn program. And, you know, we've seen hiring posts over the years from Blue Origin that talk about
Starting point is 00:10:12 advanced upper stages and optimized first stages. And you can glean some of this from the things that have been posted and job postings. But the fact that these are already underway and already starting to get implemented is really impactful when you think about the schedule for the bigger, better, New Glenn. So it's obviously going to make a huge difference for New Glenn 7-2 when they start doing missions that need more performance, whether that's deploying, you know, big payloads for Amazon or whether that's launching Blue Moon to the Moon. Those things all matter a lot to get those energy, the energy that you need for those bigger payloads or the farther destinations.
Starting point is 00:10:49 But it also indicates that it's not like they're starting this roadmap now. It's not now they're starting to think about densified propellant, and now they're starting to think about what that's going to do their operations. And now they're starting to work on the new version of the B-E-4. It's the stuff that's in play and means that everything else interesting is coming sooner than you might think. Now, for the big new Glenn, the payload metrics on this thing is pretty bonkers. So what they're, and caveats being what I mentioned earlier, that like the first version is probably not going to have these, but the vehicle is designed to hit these numbers. 70 metric tons to low Earth orbit. 14 metric tons directly to geostationary
Starting point is 00:11:29 orbit, or geosynchronous, they say, because it could be stationary if you get your inclination, right? Which maybe knocks a little bit off that number. 20 metric tons to trans lunar injection. 20 metric tons to TLI. Is it, is an absolutely enormous vehicle. And some of those numbers, you might say, hey, aren't those damn near some SLS numbers? And that is exactly right. And exactly what I want to talk about is how does this impact the conversation nationally right now going on with space policy? How does it impact the flexibility? and the creativity that there might be for an upcoming Jared Isaac administration, I want to dissect all that for a couple of minutes because I think it's not only really
Starting point is 00:12:09 interesting, but it's what we're going to see play out in the next two or three months as we make our way through the space policy calendar here. But before I do that, I do want to take a minute to say thank you to everyone out there who supports main engine cutoff over at main engine cutoff.com slash support. It's a kitschy to say. It's Thanksgiving Eve here. I'm very thankful for all your support. This show only happens because you're here listening. There has never been a single person that has worked on Miko, other than me and you. I do all this stuff on this side. You exist on that side. You support everything that I do here. There ain't a lot like that out in the space media ecosystem right now, where you are my boss,
Starting point is 00:12:48 I'm working for you, and it's just us. That's it. There's nobody else booking travel plans, booking guests, thinking of what I should say, writing up scripts. There's nothing, right? Which maybe leaves us lacking in some of the departments, but it also keeps us super honest. And that's a really special thing. I'm so thankful for it. It's something that I absolutely love. You know, I've got a ton of friends in the media who have real, real media jobs where they've got somebody assigning them stories and booking some travel and they've got a travel budget and they've got editors and there's maybe a grass is greener situation going both ways here because a lot of them are leaving those and then trying to start something like this. But the fact that you're here,
Starting point is 00:13:27 you've been here all these years. I'm so thankful for that. It means a lot. And I'll tell you this, we're heading into December here. And about three weeks from today, if the schedule holds, I think there will be a show live in about three weeks. It'll either be exactly three weeks or three weeks in a day, depending on how fast I can turn something around. That will be the coolest interview I've done on this show. I've had a lot of cool interviews, a lot of great guests. this one's going to be special for a number of reasons. It'll be an in-person interview, taking a trip a couple hours away, doing something that I have been doing my research.
Starting point is 00:14:04 I think we've got a superlative first in the history of podcasting coming up on this year's show. I'm not going to tell you more than that yet. You're going to have to wait for it. But this kind of thing only happens because you're here. And I will never be able to say thank you enough, including to the list of executive producers who made this episode possible. 32 of you supporting this show and producing this particular episode. Thanks to lead, Natasha Sacco's, Fred, Will and Lars, from Agile, Ryan, Stealth, Julian, Pat,
Starting point is 00:14:33 Hiko, Chris, Jan, Better Everyday Studios, Theo and Violet, Matt, Josh from Impulse, Russell, Joel, Warren, Eunice, Joachim, Tim Dodd, the everyday astronaut, Donald, David, Frank, Steve, the Astrogators at S-E, and four anonymous executive producers. Thank you all so much for producing this show. If you want to join the crew, Mainenginecutoff.com slash support, hop in there. You get it behind the scenes, look at what I'm working on sometimes. You get access to Miko Headlines, which is a show I do every 10 days-ish, running through all the stories in space, the things that matter, the things that don't even make it in there.
Starting point is 00:15:05 I filter it all out for you. I read all the news, I read all the space news, and I filter out the things that you need to know about and you hear about it right in your podcast feed where you listen to this now. So it's a great way to support the show to stay up on what's important. And thank you all so much once again for making this possible. all right so these payload numbers for new glen nine four like i said they are very close to sLS they're a little bit shy of most of the block one numbers um though to be honest a lot of those numbers are a little bit murky to me um you know the the sLS block one that's about the fly artemus two if you look at the nassah um press output on this
Starting point is 00:15:44 it's it's tough to figure out but it looks like let me just pull up this sheet real quick so it looks like the Orion and Orion SM the European Service module that stack is something around 24 metric tons 25 metric tons something in that range it's hard sometimes to parse out from these NASA documents if that includes the trimass of the interim cryogenic propulsion stage, the ICPS, because they talk about what is the post-transluter insertion mass of the vehicle, and that tends to float around like 25 metric tons. So that's, you know, you figure that's doing 25 tons to TLI, not 20, in the case of big Nuclan here. And then we've got 70 metric tons to low Earth orbit. Well, I remember
Starting point is 00:16:44 a time where that was stated as the Leo threshold for SLS Block 1, I think that's also then been talked about as, well, it actually does 95 tons, but a bunch of those tons are, again, the ICPS and the propellant on board, which is, yeah, it's, you know, I get it, because the ICPS gets them into that final initial orbit, and it's also still there with them. It's kind of like when you count the space shuttle, right? Do you count the amount of payload that the space shuttle could put into orbit as just what it can fit in the payload bay, or do you count the orbiter as well? Because that's like an 80-ton swing, depending on how you count it. So I think there might be a little bit high in the ball there. Not nefariously, but not not nefariously, to be honest.
Starting point is 00:17:32 I think everyone wants to make their numbers look better. So they make it a little bit hard to draw an exact line on like, all right, where is all this mass and how much is it? And maybe it's just that they don't know yet. But it's roughly, this is. is roughly in the ballpark with SLS Block 1. Now, I think on the, when you get down to it, right, can this launch Orion and the European Service module to TLI? It doesn't seem like it. It seems like it's a little bit short of that. But you know what it can do? It can do everything that the SLS Block 1B is supposed to do other than Orion. So what I mean by that is SLS Block 1, we're about to fly with Artemis 2. That's just got Orion and the SLS vehicle.
Starting point is 00:18:13 service module, that's going to fly Orion to the near rectilinear halo orbit for Artemis 3. It's going to fly into this free return trajectory for Artemis 2. But it doesn't carry anything else other than that. SLS Block 1B is where you get the new exploration upper stage. You get a new service module adapter or a new universal stage adapter that sits on top of the exploration upper stage, and inside of that, you can co-manifest a payload with Orion up to 10 tons. And this is where all of the chunks of the gateway are going to ride, except for the initial power and propulsion element that's launching on a Falcon Heavy. So the European Habitat module, the airlock, the sort of like experiment module that's going to go up to the gateway, all these other
Starting point is 00:19:02 secondary modules on Gateway are supposed to right now launch on Block 1B, and what happens is after TLI, Orion will spin around. Apollo style, grab that out of the universal service adapter, and then tug that piece out to the gateway, get it into near-rected-Leniger-Halo orbit, dock with the gateway, and then itself go around and dock to where it needs to, at the gateway, to prepare for whatever mission it's doing.
Starting point is 00:19:28 So all of those missions, which makes, you know, it sounds like a little thing, right, 10 tons of payload going out to the gateway. And it, on its own, it is, is, but the fact that it makes the Artemis roadmap so confusing, because how many things have to come together to get a single launch off for the SLS Block 1B, all of that could be obviated by Big New Glenn here. It can do 20 metric tons to TLI. I did a little bit of rough rocket equation math, and it seems plausible that you could launch. First of all, let's talk about the
Starting point is 00:20:02 diameter. We'll get to that, right? Universal service, you know, geez, too many service adapters and stage adapters. Universal stage adapter, the USA, 8.4 meter diameter, right? Like the core stage of SLS. So again, we got an 8.7 meter faring on New Glenn here. Honestly, a little secret. I haven't seen specific diameters for these things that are manifested for SLS Block 1B. It doesn't look like any of them are using more than four or five meters. So they could already fit on another vehicle. But this is a very good equivalence for launching this thing out to the gateway. Because I bet in the other 10 metric tons that you've got available for TLY, you could fit some sort of creatively designed tug to get you the final way from TLI down to the gateway and dock. There's not that many meters a second of Delta V from TLI to near rectal inner halo orbit.
Starting point is 00:20:54 It's a couple hundred. It's not thousands. It's a couple hundred. So you do the math on like how much propellant would you need, how much dry masses that leave you to actually have a vehicle that can do. rendezvous and proximity operations and everything that you need to actually get this thing docked at the gateway. It looks like you could fit it on big new glen. So I think when you look at that and you look at the fact that last year there was reporting, right, that Eric Berger had that there were some in Congress that we're looking for what other upper stages could we use other than
Starting point is 00:21:24 the exploration upper stage. And then you look at this new new glen upper stage and it's a four engine hydrogen upper stage with way more thrust than the exploration upper stage that uses RL10s that are very efficient but very low thrust. This thing's got beefy BE3Us. That's a huge stage. That's a bigger, better stage than the EUS ever will be. And so is this the thing that gets dropped on SLS as the upper stage? Maybe.
Starting point is 00:21:52 Is it a thing that unlocks the ability to not have to co-manifest all the gateway payloads on SLS and gives you some options for, if you're hypothetically a NASA administrator coming into the role, that's been critical of the Artemis Roadmap? Does the existence of New Glen here open up some creative options for you on the latter part of the Artemis Roadmap? Because then you look at the schedule. Like I said, they're already working on these operated engines. They're already working on subcold propellant. So do you believe in the ability for Blue Origin to make a new faring and stretch some tanks between now and 2028? Even if it's 2030. When do you think the EUS is going to fly?
Starting point is 00:22:32 Artemis 2 is flying in a couple months I don't know a lot of people that are going to tell you that Artemis 3 is going to fly before 2028 which means Artemis 4 ain't flying until 2030 2031 you think it's going to take them six years to stretch the tanks make some new landing legs on top of the vehicle that just flew successfully
Starting point is 00:22:56 and landed successfully and by all accounts is a program on assent is a program with some momentum I don't think that's going to take six years. Is the EUS going to be done by then? Is the mobile launcher two going to be in good shape by then? You start to see how like, oh, wow, the timeline here really shakes out that the mere existence of this big new glen forces some conversations. And that's something that I think is a notable changing, not even changing the guard, but adding to the guard.
Starting point is 00:23:26 There's one way to look at the industry in the last couple years, which is, are you someone and some organization that is, doing what most of the industry is doing, or are you doing things that the industry has to react to? And when I say industry, I mean other companies, I mean political individuals, I mean heads of organizations, both governmental and non-governmental. Are you doing things and making announcements
Starting point is 00:23:47 and making progress that makes others react? Or are you reacting to things happening in the industry? The execution on New Glenn, if they are able to execute like that on Blue Moon, and the unveiling of what looks to be a very, near-term roadmap. Those are all things that make people react to this, that force conversations. I think I've said all the way back to 2016 when I launched this podcast that we're going to have to fly our way out of SLS-O-Rion. We're not going to politic our way out of it.
Starting point is 00:24:19 We're not going to PowerPoint our way out of it. We have to fly our way out of this. You got Starship with its operations in mind and where they're heading, and you got a big new glen like this flying. There's very few opportunities to, you know, find a lane in there that they haven't flown out of. And that's hugely impactful, especially at a moment of disruption on the budget side, on the policy side, on the strategy side, on the people's side at NASA right now. Now, we'll see. Next week, Jared Isamond is going to be back in the Senate for a renomination hearing. Clearly, Ted Cruz, maybe even Cantwell, something like that. they have things that they want to get Jared Eisenman back on record for.
Starting point is 00:25:03 Maybe it's all his criticism of the Artemis program. It's what was put out there in that Athena document. It's the stuff that had made the rounds in between his last nomination hearing and now that they want to put him on the record for. It's all the stuff that happened when Secretary Duffy was running NASA for a little bit and making kind of wild announcements about opening up the Artemis 3 contracts and what Jared thinks about that. I'd be shocked.
Starting point is 00:25:27 absolutely shocked if next week we didn't hear something about new glen come up and it's probably going to be from a maria can't well question but who knows i would be shocked if we didn't hear something about the spacex incident that happened on booster 18 the first v3 booster that where a copv exploded and destroyed the booster before they even got to testing it i would be shocked if both those stories didn't come up and that's where i think the positioning here matters the the positioning of blue origin being an organization that is riding a high right now, on a scent. They got momentum. And then SpaceX, who we thought was through a lot of the really bad 2025 storylines here, having one more for us before the end of the year. Now, will that come up in the context of we should do the blue moon thing
Starting point is 00:26:13 instead of the starship thing for a human landing system on Artemis 3? Probably. Will it come up with, hey, are there commercial alternatives to this big super heavy lift strategy that we have with SLS? Are there things that we could be creative with and find ways to fly these missions without being burdened with the cost and the schedule constraints that are SLS Orion and co-manifesting payloads on SLS Block 1B? I don't know if that part will come up in this hearing, but that's certainly going to be something that comes up in the next two years if and when Jared Issegman is actually confirmed as administrator. There's a shot that this New Glenn flies before he's done being the administrator, or that we at least see some of the stretched nine-engine hardware for New
Starting point is 00:26:54 Glenn, before Jared Isaacman's time is up. So again, does the exact technical detail here matter? Does it matter that they seem to be maybe a couple of metric tons short to launch Orion directly to TLI? No. Does the positioning of it matter? That they have a nearly SLS-like vehicle that is on their near-term roadmap that is going to be way more affordable than an SLS. us. Even the fact that they have an upper stage that looks a lot like the EUS, but it's even better and stronger, and it's going to be produced at rate, and it's going to be mass produced and pretty available, that positioning matters a lot. So there's just so many pieces here that hook in to the trends in the industry right now. And it gives, you know, it gives everybody ammunition
Starting point is 00:27:40 to play with to put together a creative strategy and roadmap on like, here's what we can use it's out in the market. And here's how we can still achieve the stuff that we had slated with SLS or Ryan, but unhook it from the constraints of those programs. And when you announce on the back of a really good success, a vehicle that looks so much like a really big SLS or a really close SLS match, even if it's Block 1, that's the thing that makes people react. It makes people forces conversations. And I love that. And that's what I love to see. I love the execution here from Blue Origin. Just excited that we're here. We're finally made it to this part. of the timeline. It's good stuff. Now for the Starship side, I don't think that failure,
Starting point is 00:28:22 the booster 18 failure, it sucks. It's a bad time. I don't really think it matters that much. I don't think it's going to drastically change their timeline for V3. They'll lose a couple of weeks, maybe a month. I don't think it's a, I felt like the reaction to it was a little outsized for what I think the impact was compared to what we've seen recently. But again, positioning matters. right they had a really terrible start of the year they seemed to be having a great late portion of the year with starship and they were moving on to v3 and then they got hit with another setback so again that that positioning does matter it's going to be played up that way and this is just an opportunity for blue origin that is massively important for them
Starting point is 00:29:03 they got all the good vibes they got all the good momentum they've got a lunar lander ready to fly that is a substantial size they've got a vehicle that seems to be operating really well. They've got a ton of engines flowing out and launching on both Nukeland and Vulcan, and now they've got a really exciting future roadmap for a big launch vehicle. That is an opportunity for them. At the same time, Starships is struggling, that's a huge opportunity for them. And I would expect to see some active politicking from Blue Origin. You might not see it out in the open, but it's going to happen. I mean, they've been actively politicking even when they didn't have this much momentum, but now that they've got it, that's an even different
Starting point is 00:29:41 thing. So, that's what I've got. You got questions or thoughts. I'm sure you do. Anthony at Managingcutoff.com, that is where to send them. But otherwise, thank you all so much for listening. Happy Thanksgiving over here in the U.S., and I'll talk to you soon. I don't know.

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