Main Engine Cut Off - T+60: New Glenn’s Fairing, OneWeb’s Factory

Episode Date: September 16, 2017

Blue Origin announced a size increase to New Glenn’s fairing, and OneWeb has decided to keep their Toulouse factory open for other customers after their initial 10-satellite production run is over. Both decisions bring about some interesting implications for the market at large. This episode of Main Engine Cut Off is brought to you by 19 executive producers—Kris, Mike, Pat, Matt, Jorge, Brad, Ryan, Jamison, Guinevere, Nadim, Peter, Donald, Lee, Jasper, and five anonymous—and 69 other supporters on Patreon. Blue Origin | New Glenn Blue Origin on Twitter: “Given customer response, we’re going straight to the 7m fairing and skipping 5.4m. Customers liking options the 2X volume provides.” New Glenn Gets Larger Fairing - Main Engine Cut Off OneWeb Satellites to keep Toulouse factory open for other customers - SpaceNews.com OneWeb Satellites to keep Toulouse factory open for other customers - Main Engine Cut Off Email your thoughts and comments to [e-mail] Follow @WeHaveMECO Listen to MECO Headlines Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Google Play, Stitcher, TuneIn or elsewhere Subscribe to the Main Engine Cut Off Newsletter Buy shirts and Rocket Socks from the Main Engine Cut Off Shop Support Main Engine Cut Off on Patreon

Welcome to Main Engine Cutoff, I am Anthony Colangelo. I want to talk today about some new Glenn news, some new Shepard news, and a little bit of OneWeb news. But before I do that, I had a bit of housekeeping I wanted to get to. I wanted to talk about a new project that I'm starting under the Main Engine Cutoff umbrella. This particular podcast, the main podcast here, is focused every single week. I try to focus on one or two stories that I have some thoughts to share about, or if a guest is on, we try to keep it focused on one theme so because of that focus it does sometimes mean that I don't talk about some stories that happen in space that are otherwise

interesting stories that are worth following so I wanted some way to capture what was happening every single week in Space News aside from the stuff that has been burning a hole in my mind that I need to talk about or that I talk about with a guest or something like that. So I'm doing this over on Patreon. I'm doing a weekly show called Miko Headlines where I go through the headlines for the week, share some quick thoughts about it, and keep you up to date on the news that's happening every single week. So head over to Patreon. If you support at the $3 a month level or more, anything higher than that, but just $3 a month, less than a dollar per show. Every single Friday, you will get a show

with the headlines from the week. And when you join on Patreon, when you support Main Engine Cutoff, you will get a custom RSS feed that you can subscribe to. So you get this new headline show right in your podcatcher, wherever you're listening right now,

whether it's Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Overcast, wherever you're listening right now whether it's apple podcast google play overcast wherever you're listening you can subscribe to that private rss feed that you would get as a subscriber and you will get all the headline shows every single week uh and you will stay up to date on space news i'll share some thoughts about the smaller stories of the week the things that aren't uh a full show's worth of topics but are still interesting nonetheless. There has been a show last week and I just finished recording one right before I started recording this episode of the podcast. So if you go over to Patreon and support at $3 a

month or higher, you will have two shows to listen to to catch up on and you will get one every single Friday from there on out. It's a very exciting project for me. I'm excited to do it. I've been having a lot of fun with it so far and I think that you're really going to enjoy it as well. So if you're on Patreon already at $3 or higher, you already have access to those shows. Head over to Patreon, grab your RSS feed. If you're not yet but you would like to, head over patreon.com slash Miko and join up there and get in on the fun. patreon.com slash Miko and join up there and get in on the fun. All right, so that out of the way, let's talk about New Glenn. Blue Origin was at World Satellite Business Week this past week and gave some updates to New Glenn and did some press release and PR

work around that. And some of them are very, very interesting. The overarching theme is that they are upgrading the New Glen fairing to seven meters across the board. Previously, the two-stage New Glen had a five-meter fairing. It had this kind of step down from seven to five, and the main payload enclosure area was five meters, and the three-stage New Glen had this larger seven-meter fairing. Both of those variants are now getting the 7 meter fairing, and in fact, the 7 meter fairing is a bit longer than was shown in previous renderings. This decision makes a lot of sense to me. To start with, the 5 meter fairing on the 2 stage New Glenn never made any sense to me. You kind of lose benefits by having those two different fairing configurations. The SpaceX style of keeping

hardware consistent across the board as best as possible is a better model here. So for Blue Origin, they can just focus now on one single fairing design and get the benefits of increased production that come with that. Because at least right now, the three-stage variant is not going to be flying the first few missions. All of the contracts they've signed at this point have been for the two-stage variant. We don't even have payload numbers for the three-stage variant. So right off the bat, they will be flying with this seven-meter fairing, starting to gain experience with it, starting to build up their production capability for these seven-meter fairings. And then they will share that hardware across their line, which is always a better idea when you want to optimize for cost and production capabilities and speed and reusability, et cetera, et cetera. And furthermore, if you have a seven meter diameter, use it. There's no reason

to not use it. You know, you might take a slight payload hit. In this case, they have not. They still report the same payload numbers here. But if you've got that seven meter diameter, use the seven meter diameter. It brings some additional competitive edge to your product. You know, they've done a lot of press around this about why this is a good move. But I think overall, it is a great move. But before we get into the benefits and what they're going after market-wise, another thing I want to bring up is I really, really hope that Blue Origin is considering fairing reusability as much as SpaceX has been working on it. next to the 7 meter fairing. It is just a monstrosity. And that stuff is made of expensive materials. It is expensive to produce. So I hope that they're looking at fairing reusability for these things because, you know, they are a company that is built on reusability. That is a big focus

of them. So I really, really hope out of the gate they're looking at fairing reusability, maybe in the similar way that SpaceX is working on it. We'll see if they do, if they go a different route. But I just hope that that's something that makes its way into the new Glenn architecture, because otherwise that just seven meter fairings, that's sort of the thing to me, is that it doesn't make sense to have to push to a bigger fairing if you're going to throw them away all the time when they're not used. So part of me thinks that that is why they went with the seven meter fairing is that they have talked about, look, if we go seven meters, we can pack in some reusability

and not impinge upon payload space on that five meter fairing, the standard sized large fairing that is used by, you know, communication satellites, Department of Defense, and all these different customers, at seven meters, they can pack in that stuff without hurting their payload enclosure space too much. And they can reuse these again and again on either varying of the rocket from the start. So part of me thinks that that is part of the architecture, they just haven't said it yet. I really, really hope it is because otherwise, I think this could be a big mistake if they don't have their eyes set on fairing reusability. So let's get to the marketing side of this that I find interesting. Blue Origin released a short video on their Twitter feed talking about this 7 meter fairing and showing off some of the uses.

The first one they list is a higher count LEO constellation dispensers. Very obvious candidate for this kind of thing. LEO constellations are all the rage right now. The bigger fairing you get, the more you can bundle into one launch. So, you know, say New Glens cost per launch is 50, 60 million, something in the SpaceX range. If you can put twice the amount of satellites under that fairing as you could on a five meter fairing, that cuts your launch cost per satellite down even lower. So more satellites in one launch for a Constellation makes it a better business case because instead of having to buy two launches, maybe you only need to buy one. Or instead of buying three launches,

you're buying two. You're saving money overall by bringing your cost per satellite launch down quite a bit with a bigger payload enclosure space. And, you know, they've already signed up some Constellation users. They have OneWeb signed on as a launch customer. So they have their eyes set on that space. They might even have their eyes on entering it their own in, you know, the far future or something like that. But a bigger payload volume makes satellite constellations much more applicable to this kind of launch vehicle. The next benefit they list of the seven meter fairing is that they can dual manifest two large satellites under this big fairing. And to me, this read like a direct shot at Arianespace.

The Ariane 5 and soon the Ariane 6 are kind of built upon dual manifesting. You know, they can do other things as well. They're going to launch James Webb Space Telescope with Ariane 5, but just about every launch of Ariane 5 is a dual manifested payload to GTO. But in this case, the payload adapters that they use actually force the satellite that sits on the lower side inside that payload adapter for the top satellite to be a little bit smaller in size. It's not the full width of the fairing because you have that extra payload space there, so it does impinge upon your payload space a little bit to do this dual manifesting. And then the satellite that goes on top has these mass constraints. You know,

the payload adapter that sits on top of the actual payload adapter can only support so much weight. It's something in the 4,500 kilogram range, I want to say. I should have looked up the exact value, but it's something like that. So you have one satellite in the dual manifest with dimension constraints and one satellite in the dual manifest with mass constraints. constraints, and one satellite in the dual manifest with mass constraints. So presumably, with the seven meter fairing of New Glenn, there is so much room to work within there that presumably those constraints are non-existent, that they can put two full-size satellites,

and when they mean large satellites, they mean in a 5,000, 6,000 kilogram range that we see being launched up to GTO now. They could put two of those things inside that big fairing and support those full-size satellites going up to GTO together. Now, there's a lot of thought out there about how useful is dual manifesting? Is it desirable? You have to have two payloads that can fit together, that can go to the same orbital slot, etc., etc. It is much harder to fit when you have those constraints like I was talking about with Ariane 5. If those constraints are completely gone and it's just two slots to go to GTO, obviously you have to be in a similar section

of the geobelt. But with less constraints, it opens up more possibilities for dual manifesting. And even this week in the World Satellite Business Week and some of the panels, Gwen Shotwell said, reusability might be able to get you down to 30 million launch, dual manifesting gets you there immediately. It cuts your launch cost per satellite in half. So in the same way that we were saying the bigger fairing on New Glenn can cut the cost per satellite in a bigger dispenser, can do that with dual manifesting as well. And if they have so much excess capacity, and if those constraints go away to make it easier to fit two satellites together on a dual manifest, it makes sense to go forward with that as a competitive edge. Somebody goes with Ariane 5,

they might have to worry about, you know, getting the exact right fit with them, which might say, okay, you can fly with that, but, you know, you're going to have to wait six months or a year longer than you were previously because we need to fit you with a satellite that can fit in these constraints and go to that same destination. Blue Origin, they're probably a little more flexible with the less constraints. So, yes, dual manifesting does bring with it some constraints and issues, but if you limit those, it makes it that much more interesting and compelling to take part in. And the last line that they say in this little video about, you know, what are the benefits of a large fairing, that's a Freudian slip for you. Their line was about simplified deployment mechanisms, that the fairing can support simplified deployment mechanisms.

And this is pretty obviously to me talking about something like the James Webb Space Telescope. James Webb Space Telescope is this very intricate origami satellite that folds up, the sunshield folds up, the mirrors fold up. Everything has to fit within that 5-meter fairing of the Ariane 5. And that is bringing with it a lot of complexity, a lot of cost, a lot of testing, a lot of risk. You know, when you get out into space, what if everything doesn't unfurl perfectly? So the bigger fairing size, the more flexible you can be with how big you can make something. Maybe, you know, some satellites wouldn't need to have such deployment mechanisms

or at least have less of them. And, you know, overall, bigger payload volume. That's what they're saying here is that missions like James Webb Space Telescope, missions like Europa Clipper, missions to the outer planets that need a lot more space or have constraints about how tight something can get folded up, a lot of that stuff goes away and they can support more interesting missions. And that obviously needs to be interesting to NASA, who have a lot of missions that have fairing constraints and maybe bigger space telescopes, bigger space station modules,

etc., etc. A bigger fairing really helps in that regard. What makes this even more interesting is that that was one of the benefits, and at this point, maybe the only benefit of cargo SLS. The whole thing has been cargo SLS can support an 8.4 meter or a 10 meter fairing, and that is just a massive fairing that nobody else can compete with. It's almost twice as wide as what's out there today. So we can support much, much bigger in dimension payloads than we could otherwise. This is a unique capability of this rocket. Therefore, it should be built. Now, SLS still has the claim on payload lift capability.

They're still quite a bit above New Glenn, quite a bit above Falcon Heavy, quite a bit above Delta IV Heavy, and just about everything else out there in the entire world. So they still have that claim for a little while at least, but this faring claim is going away entirely. New Glenn will fly before cargo SLS. New Glenn's going to fly in the 2020 range. Cargo SLS wouldn't be flying until 2021 you know, 2021, 2022, 2023, maybe. And at this point, if things keep slipping the way they have been slipping with SLS, we've moved from, you know, where we have been in the last five years to a 2019 launch at this point, New Glenn has a shot to fly before SLS flies at all. So, you know, at a certain point,

at all. So, you know, at a certain point, New Glenn is a lot less paper-looking rocket than cargo SLS is. And it's a rocket that will already exist with a seven meter fairing. Is seven meters enough to cover a lot of these use cases that were touted as a big benefit of SLS? Not every single one, but Europa Clipper? Certainly. And, you know, with the payload mass capability of New Glenn, 45 tons to Leo, you know, that's a serious, serious benefit to getting Europa Clipper, something like that, out to the outer planets in quicker time, which previously was the benefit of SLS. So, you know, at every turn, SLS's unique capabilities are getting encroached upon. And Faring Size was one that seemed untouchable. But New Glenn, with this move alone, is encroaching enough upon that space to really limit the uniqueness that could be claimed by cargo SLS. And that alone is something

that I find very, very interesting, the play between this and SLS. Whenever Blue Origin is out there talking about their lunar ambitions, Blue Moon as they call it, this lander that can land tons of cargo on the lunar surface, they always mention it can be launched on the SLS, and it can be launched on our New Glenn. They always say SLS first, which I think is to pique the interest of politicians or whoever else is listening. And they followed up with New Glenn to let them know SLS can do these things and so can we.

And that's the tactic that they seem to be following here as we head into the 2020s. So very encouraging update from Blue Origin. I really hope they consider fairing reusability or else I'm skeptical, but I have to imagine that that is part of the reason that they decided to go this route. So let's move on to the OneWeb news, but before we do that, I want to say a huge thank you to all of you out there supporting Main Engine Cutoff on Patreon. There are 88 of you supporting over on Patreon, including 19 executive producers. Chris, Mike, Pat, Matt, George, Brad, Ryan, Jameson, Guinevere, Nadeem, Peter, Donald, Lee, Jasper, and five anonymous

executive producers. Thank you so much. You made this episode of Main Engine Cutoff possible. Could not do it without your support and everyone else over at patreon.com slash Miko. And as I said, $3 a month or up gets you access to Miko headlines each and every Friday, keeping you up to date on the space news of the week. So head over there and check it out. And thank you so much for all of your support. So I wanted to get into some news from OneWeb here. You know, they're working on a satellite internet constellation. They're working to build about 900 satellites total. And they've got launch contracts with Virgin Orbit, with Blue Origin, with Arianespace on Soyuz. They are kind of spreading the love around the launch providers to get all of these satellites up in orbit sooner.

initial satellite factory set up in Toulouse, France. And this is where they're going to build their first 10 satellites to work out all the kinks to make sure everything's working in order in their production line before they shift over to their new factory in Exploration Park, Florida. This is just outside the gates of Kennedy Space Center, just south of the Visitor Complex there. And after those 10 satellites in France, they will shift over to this new factory to produce the rest of the 900 satellites that they need. And they announced this past week that they're going to keep the factory in France open once they're done with those 10 satellites. They're going to keep it open and build satellites for other customers. They're going to keep it in the 150 kilogram to 200 kilogram range, maybe a little larger than that. But they're going to build these satellites for whoever wants them. And this is a very, very smart move for OneWeb. I've been thinking about

this a lot this week. OneWeb, because of their architecture that they've decided upon, they are going to have to come at satellite production from a fresh light. They're going to have to come at it a new way to achieve the things that they want to achieve. 900 satellites and have them up within five years, that kind of thing. That is a new way to achieve the things that they want to achieve. 900 satellites and have them up within five years, that kind of thing. That is a new way of thinking about satellite production. So if they can take that, whatever they learn, whatever innovations they come up with, and turn it into a production force for the industry so that they don't have to just stand down these factories after they're done building their 900 satellites, because presumably they're going

to flip the France factory over and then eventually, once they're done with their own satellites, flip the Florida factory over to be a general satellite builder. So if you can take what you learn there, bundle it up, and provide a new product to the industry at large, that is a very fascinating consideration. And, you know, this is something that Caleb Henry and I talked about this on a podcast a few weeks ago, that we're kind of seeing, you know, the drop in large geo-satellite orders and the rise in constellations happen at the same time, that it becomes plausible to see a future of these mass-produced yet configurable to each customer satellites take over from the previous era, which was, let's build these one-offs, one-of-a-kind, very expensive, single satellites,

deliver it to you, launch it to Jio, and it stays up there for 20 years. So it is very, very possible and in my view likely that the 200 kilogram satellite is to the next decade what the 5,000-kilogram satellite has been to the previous decade or two. That is, all of the money in the satellite industry has been made in geo for the past 10, 20 years from these 5,000-kilogram or more big, expensive, single satellites. And the rise of the constellation, specifically in this 150 to 200 kilogram range, is something that is a force to be reckoned with in the next 5, 10, 15 years.

We obviously have some people like Planet out there with CubeSats and SmallSats, you know, NanoSats in a lot of ways. They're running a constellation of, you know, in the hundreds of satellites doing imagery of the Earth, and they are making that business model work. There are business models that are in work now. There's a lot of these internet constellations that are launching. The constellation business is proving itself in this current day and age. And yeah, the nanosatellites are okay for some people, but for internet constellations or even some of the more advanced imagery constellations, the 150 to 250 kilogram satellite seems to be the workhorse.

And the best part of that is that it fits on smaller dedicated launch vehicles like Launcher One, Electron, all of these small sat launchers that are coming up. And they also fit in a dispenser on a larger vehicle like Soyuz or Falcon 9 or New Glenn, all of these things like that. So it is built in flexibility in a market that's totally in transition. You know, we have the large launchers that are even shifting in their own right. You know, SpaceX taking over a lot of business, Blue Origin coming online soon. And we have this burst of energy from the

small launch sector. We've got Electron making its first launch and the second one in the next couple of weeks. Launcher One should be making its first launch next year. Both sides of these launch industries are just changing a lot right now. So with all of this market in flux kind of state that we're at, having the flexibility to put your satellite on any of these different competitors is a very, very interesting thing. And as we see the rise of constellations, the transition in the launch market, the 200 kilogram satellite seems to be something that is going to be very, very important in the next decade. And maybe there's somebody who wants, you know,

a small constellation, 10 or 15 satellites in the 200 kilogram range. OneWeb could pump those out for them very, very quickly and be specialized for that industry. And the nature of constellations is that you launch a lot of satellites expecting some to fail over time and retire and you launch more. So you kind of have an ongoing production force rather than, you know, what we're seeing now, this huge dip in geo orders because things have been out there 10, 15, 20 years and they're still working fine. Now we're getting some satellite servicing to make them work even longer. So it's an interesting shift now in the production side as well. And I think OneWeb, given their own abilities up front to learn a lot to get into the production side of the market, they are positioned extremely, extremely well for the next phase of

this side of the industry. So I'm very excited about this decision, and I'm hoping to hear more about this as we get closer to them doing that actual flip over of their factory. So that is it for me this week. If you've got any thoughts on Blue Origin or OneWeb or the Miko Headlines Edition, email me anthony at managercutoff.com or follow on Twitter at WeHaveMiko and we can talk over there. Thank you very much for listening and I will talk to you next week. Thank you.