Marketplace - A year later, is Trump’s investment in Intel… a win-win?

Episode Date: July 24, 2026

Intel’s sales jumped by 25% last quarter, the largest increase in over a decade — making the U.S. government’s stake in the company around $40 billion after the administration invested last year. In this episode: Was Trump’s Intel deal a win-win? Plus: Why Gen Z’s not drinking regular soda, rates on business loans might climb, and a 63-year-old pivoted to statue restoration after a career in tech.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today’s episode:Weekly Wrap: Are tariffs just white noise?Rates on business loans have held steady, but they might climb soonIntel is booming a year after the U.S. government bought a stake. Is that a win-win?Mushroom soda and other functional drinks make a splash in the beverage marketHow a 63-year-old took statue restoration from a side hustle to full-time job

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Today, this one is the 24th of July, good as it always is, to have you along, everybody. This has not been, as I think I said a couple of days ago, a week with a whole lot of data in it. But data is not the whole economic ballgame, you know, so we'll have plenty to do for next seven minutes or so. Courtney Brown is at Axiost. Stacey Vanek-Smith is at Bloomberg. Hey, you too. Hi, Kay. Stacey, I'm going to start with you, and I'm going to start with the tariffs that went into effect at midnight, replace the tariffs that went away at midnight, blah, blah, blah. We all know the details. Here's the thing. Seems to me now that the tariffs, while impactful on an individual basis and with small businesses and, you know, big businesses, too, they've kind of become like

economic wallpaper, discuss. I think that's a good point. It does seem like the tariffs are dead long live the tariffs situation, for sure. I think the difference is, though, for consumers right now. I think consumers are in a very different place. We got numbers from the Tax Foundation that in 2025 tariffs cost households about $1,000. I think with high gas prices, inflation continuing to climb, wages not keeping up with inflation, I think consumers are just in an increasingly difficult situation. trying to pay for things. And I think that $1,000, which is expected to be more this year, is really starting to change for consumers and businesses. I think maybe we're going to get close to hitting a wall here pretty soon. Well, so Courtney, on that subject, not necessarily the wall, but what it's doing, we are all kind of still now subject to the president's whims, right? I mean, these tariffs that went into effect at 1201 this morning, they can be changed now at the president's discretion now that the investigations have been done. So there's not a lot of,

of certainty coming our way? Yeah, let me tell you something about a wallpaper, Kai. If it's ugly and if it's loud, it can be pretty distracting, right? And I think that's maybe how some of my sources would characterize tariffs, right? They, as you say, have become a backdrop. But it's very clear. If we learned anything this week, it is that the president is committed to carrying out his tariff agenda. He has had a couple outs. He could have backtracked. No, he decided to double down. I also want to give a shout out to my sources, several of which told me that President Trump wouldn't dare to double down on tariffs with the backdrop of the Middle East conflict. No, there's no way he would do that. It's too much uncertainty. He's got the oil shock and that's driving up prices. No,

he wouldn't double down on tariffs. He is going to double down on tariffs. And so if you had any doubt, this week shows you that they are very serious about their trade agenda. Stacey, the next bullet item on my list of things to talk to you to about says, just back to what Courtney said, the bullet point literally is oil, question mark, war, question mark. That's pretty much a good sum up of 2026 so far. Yeah, I mean, listen, oil is just another tough situation. We got some pretty promising inflation numbers earlier this month. month. And now it seems like straight of Hormuz is closed again. Oil's back up around 90 bucks a

barrel. As you've talked about so many times on the show, oil prices seep into everything. So that is just not good news for consumers or for businesses. It just seems like we're in a real holding pattern here. Every time it seems like there's progress and things are about to come to conclusion, we're right back where we started. All right. But Courtney, look, the economy, generally speaking, right? And look, people are stressed. There's a low fire, low higher labor market, but the economy is growing. There's going to be a recession at some point, but it's not coming tomorrow. All things considered, you know, not terrible?

Not terrible if you're like me and you spend a lot of time looking at lines on a chart go down or go up. But I think, you know, to Stacey's point about the way that the consumers are feeling out there in the real economy, I think it's gnarly, right? And I think it continues to confound me how well the economy is doing on, you know, an indicator basis. We just got jobless claims that showed the lowest or the fewest claims since, you know, the late 1960s. That's crazy. But consumer sentiment is in the dumps. People are unhappy. And so, you know, what are the economic effects of that?

Do we get to the point where consumers start to pull back hasn't happened yet, but doesn't mean it won't happen? Right, right, right. Although I will say we have been looking for the – I personally, I won't speak for you to, have been looking for consumers to pull back for a good long while now. And yet we keep – we say where crankies all get out when the University of Michigan comes and says, how is your sentiment? How do you feel? And yet we keep spending money, right? Stacey, that's the consumer reality in this economy. It has been very strange to watch.

I keep thinking, okay, here's when the other shoe's going to drop. Exactly because of what you said about consumer sentiment. We see real wages, meaning wages aren't keeping up with inflation. I keep expecting to see consumer spending get pulled back. It has not happened so far, but also consumer debt is rising. And of course, as we know, borrowing costs are on the rise too. So I don't know how much longer this can go on, but we have kept – we've been spending like champions and we have not pulled back, really. Speaking of borrowing costs, Courtney Brown, here comes your chance to dip into the bond market, which we've been talking about a little bit this week.

I know, I know. Don't you love coming on this program? I do. The 30 years, the 30 years been at 5% for like a month. The tenure is rising. Bar and cross costs not just for the government, but across this economy are going up. And I'm not sure how many people are paying enough attention to that. I'm paying attention. We had a few stories this week. Of course you are. Yeah, yeah, I have fun. I promise. We had a few stories this week on this phenomenon. And I think going into next week's Fed meeting, this is my question for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. I mean, how much. Do these rising borrowing costs affect the Fed outlook? I mean, is this doing the work that the Fed maybe would have done? Do they not have to be as aggressive now?

Because the bond markets kind of doing some of that work for them. I mean, that is a key question. But just one nerdy thing is that when you look under the hood a little bit, you check out, you know, market-based indicators of inflation expectations. Those look okay. Right. And so it's it's not the inflation mechanism that's pushing yields up. It's like investors are demanding more of a premium to lend the government money, right? That's what we're seeing. And so how does the Fed respond to that? Huge question. Stacey, 30 seconds. What is your question for Chairman Warsh come next Wednesday and his press conference? How are you going to navigate like between this rock and hard place that you're in? I feel like you can't. really raise interest rates because the job market's kind of anemic and borrowing costs are already

quite high. But cutting interest rates seem really risky, especially with inflation, finally coming down, but potentially on the rise because of oil prices. I just, I would want to know, like, what are you looking at? What are you prioritizing? And he will say some version of, I'm sorry, that sounds like a request for forward guidance. And I'm not going to give you any forward guidance, right? That's what he's going to say. All right. We got to go. Stacey Manich, Smith, Bloomberg, Courtney Brown and Axios. See you two later. Bye. Thanks, Guy. Thanks, Guy.

Oh, man. Wall Street to end the week, technology stocks are apparently no good again. And oil traders continue to believe the rumors that get floated about ceasefire talks in the Middle East. Go figure. Details numbers when we get there. We have, I know, been talking about the bond market a lot this week. I just did it with Courtney. Sorry, not sorry, because it really matters. We've been talking about bond yields specific. which have been rising for a couple of reasons. One, inflation is still and again being stubbornly persistent.

So expectations are the Fed's going to keep interest rates higher for longer. And there's all that debt. The government keeps piling on. Greg I and I were talking about that yesterday. How much the government has to pay to borrow, of course, hits borrowing costs across the economy. 30-year mortgages I mentioned yesterday. Freddie Mac says the average rate's the highest it's been in almost a year. And business loans could be headed up.

word two. Thing is, there's no equivalent to Freddie Mac to track them. So Marketplace's Justin Ho called some lenders and did a survey of his own. Business loans don't work exactly the same way mortgages do. The interest rate on a mortgage is typically fixed for 30 years. But the rate on a business loan changes pretty frequently, says Chris Duncan, chief lending officer at LaSalle State Bank in Illinois. So I can have a five-year term on a loan with an interest rate that changes every year. As a result, Duncan says business loans aren't directly tied to long-term treasuries the way mortgages are. Instead, they're often tied to something called the prime rate, which closely tracks what the Federal Reserve does. So when the Fed comes in and they raise their rate, you'll see that prime rate will move.

When they lower their rate, that prime rate moves down. So that's a very direct correlation. Duncan says at his bank, interest on business loans hasn't changed much over the last few months, because the Fed has held rate steady. But Duncan says he thinks they're headed up. And I think that's getting forced by inflation and all the factors that the Fed Open Market Committee has to take into consideration. Another reason rates on business loans could rise is because banks might have to start paying more interest to depositors. Particularly if we see the Fed raise interest rates to kind of calm inflation, you'll see some deposit interest rates move.

David Riling is a CEO of Sunrise Banks in Minnesota. He says rates on business loans are especially sensitive to interest on deposit. since banks use those deposits to make those loans. So the higher those deposit costs are going to be, the higher the loan rates are going to be for small business customers. But it's not a great time for business loans to get more expensive, says Brad Bolton, CEO of Community Spirit Bank in Red Bay, Alabama. What I'm saying here in rural Alabama and northeast Mississippi is our borrowers

are really being hampered by higher energy costs. Bolton says many of his borrowers are in the timber and trucking industries, both of which consume a lot of fuel. So he's been working with his borrowers to extend loan terms and reduce monthly payments. Maybe you're having to stretch that term out to 60 months instead of where you would normally finance it for 48, just to keep the payment manageable for that small business owner. And keeping payments manageable helps the bank keep its customers. I'm Justin Hove for Marketplace.

Intel reported profits yesterday sales up 25% last quarter of the biggest. increase in more than 15 years. It is quite the turnaround for the once mighty company. It helped put the Silicon in Silicon Valley, after all. But Intel has had a rough past decade or so. This is of more than passing interest to American taxpayers who now own nearly 10% of that company. The Trump administration's adventures in state capitalism took the stake in exchange for about $9 billion in grants that Intel got from the Chips Act back in the Biden years. That stake, by the way, now worth about $40 billion, give or take. Marketplace is Megan McCarty Carrino has this investor update. A lot of factors have played into Intel's comeback, says

Tufts historian Chris Miller, who wrote Chip War, the fight for the world's most critical technology. There's the years-long overhaul of corporate and manufacturing structures, government support, yes, but most importantly, the demand for the CPU chips that the company produces has surge because of AI. That's the primary reason that Intel's revenues have increased and its stock price has done very well. The humble central processing unit that powered Intel's dominance in personal computing had been overshadowed by GPUs from Nvidia early in the AI boom. But over the last year, as AI workflows have changed and as companies have relied more on agents, they found that pairing CPUs with GPUs provides better performance.

Having the federal government as an investor is helping Intel build out its manufacturing capacity to meet that demand, says analyst Angelo Zeno at CFRA. It actually pushed others to also make investment, right? SoftBank invested $2 billion, Nvidia, another $5 billion to help expand domestic chip production. So if you're a company like Nvidia, if you want to be a company like Nvidia, if you want to position yourself in a favorable light with the U.S. government, it would make all the sense in the world to try to get Intel some of your business. Analysts Jay Goldberg at Seaport Research Partners also points to reports the Trump administration has worked behind the scenes to push big

tech companies to partner with Intel. The Trump administration encouraged people to take a closer look and customers found they'd like what they saw enough to go start buying stuff. In the short term, he says the deal seems to be paying off for both parties, but... I think there are still a lot of questions about whether or not this is a good policy, what this means in the future. Right now, what the government wants aligns pretty well with what the market wants. But that might not be the case forever. I'm Megan McCarty Carrino for Marketplace.

Coming up. She's 28 going on 50. Time comes for everybody, gang. But first, let's do it. the numbers. Dow Industrial's up 235 today, about a half percent, finished at 51,947. The NASDAQ subtracted 161 points, about two-thirds percent, 24,975. S&P 500, basically flat 74 and 11. For the five days gone by, the Dow gave up four-tenths percent. The NASDAQ down 2.1 percent. S&P 500 subtracted six-tenths of one percent. Despite the great quarter in the big jump in sales, Intel,

Share's subtracted 7.9% on the day. Earlier this week, AT&T, delighted Wall Street with a strong report today. It was Verizon's turn, added close to twice as many phone subscribers as people had been guessing. Also dialed up about 5 and 8 tenths percent on the day. The maker of Hoka and Uggfootwear? Who knew they were the same company, by the way? Top Wall Street predictions raised its projections for this year. Decker's Outdoor. Ran down two-tenths of 1%.

You're listening to Marketplace. This Marketplace podcast is presented by tomorrow's Q. If our health care coverage leaves you wanting to learn more about the innovations shaping medicine, tomorrow's cure is for you. It's the chart-topping 2025 Ambi Award finalist podcast from Mayo Clinic. Back for a brand new season with new host award-winning journalist Lindsay Sievert, tomorrow's cure explores the innovations changing the health care landscape. Featuring conversations with leading physicians, researchers, and medical experts,

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Learn more at gEP.com. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdahl. Next time you're going to do. grocery shopping and you find yourself in the soda aisle, do me a favor and linger for a minute. Take a closer look. It's not all the usual suspects that you'll see and it's not all the usual messaging. Sotos are now probiotic, prebiotic, electrolyte loaded, not to mention adaptogenic as well. Functional beverages is the buzzword and Gen Z is all over them. We've called Monica Petrucci at Forbes to talk it over. Thanks for coming on. Thank you so much for having me.

We need, I think, to define some terms here. The term at hand is functional beverage. What is that? Yeah, so a functional beverage is essentially any beverage that offers some kind of health benefit or added nutritional value. So that could be anything for pre-or probiotics for digestive health or electrolytes for hydration. But it can span pretty far and wide. And they are, based on this conference or convention, I suppose you went to, they are all the range. Yes.

So they have been growing pretty steadily, I think, since about 2021. The category in general is projected to reach around almost $340 billion by 2030. So, yeah, as you said, they were all over the floor at the fancy food show this year. Can I just, can we spare me a moment here for the, hey, you kids get off my lawn part of this? Whatever happened to just like having a soda because it tastes good, you know, and you just wanted to hang out for a minute? Yeah, I think that interest is kind of fading away a little bit. Consumers in general. Thank you for being so polite about that. Well, there definitely still is a market for the traditional soda and juice, right?

But there is this other kind of side of the market that's growing, which is folks are less interested in, quote-unquote, empty calories, right? They're interested in beverages and also snack foods in general that make the most of everything that they're eating and drinking. And also people aren't drinking alcohol as much, right? That's got to be part of this. Yeah, exactly. So younger consumers especially, like Gen Z and millennials, are. are drinking less alcohol. They're looking for more, you know, fun drinks that aren't alcohol, but maybe offer some kind of benefit hydration or better digestion, things like that.

I was amazed to read in this piece, and I haven't been in Starbucks in a good long while, but they have something called a protein cold foam. Yes. Yep, exactly. So it's becoming less of a niche kind of product that you'll find at either direct-to-consumer or in small health-focused stores, and it's kind of becoming everywhere. Like you said, your local Starbucks. places like Walmart have dedicated areas for functional beverages. It's just kind of everywhere now. Do they work, though? Yeah, that's the question, right? So there are, there's kind of a range. So you kind of have to take each different beverage into account. You know, there are gut health drinks like

Ollipop or Poppy. Those have added fiber to them. And then there are electrolyte pouches. There are drinks that are alcohol alternatives, things that have, um, adaptogen of herbs or mushrooms in there, like Ashwaganda or Rishi, those are, um, you know, I saw, I saw a mushroom soda. I, this is true, I swear. I saw a mushroom soda in my pigly-wiggly, like four or five months ago, and I was going to buy it for a friend of mine, and I haven't seen it since. I wonder whatever happened on that one. Yeah, I mean, these brands are definitely rising and falling, um, just because there's such an oversaturation in the market now. So, um, yeah, that, that definitely sounds right. And we should say here, by the way, for all the, for all the,

you know, perhaps not so subtle criticism that I'm offering here. Coffee is like the original functional beverage, right? Yes, exactly. So there are, you know, coffees, of course, not going anywhere, but then there are, you know, drinks like macha that are being lauded for their natural caffeine and things that we've known and loved are being remarketed to fit into this space where consumers are interested in something that is healthier, better for you. Everything old is indeed new again.

Monica Petrucci at Forbes. Monica, thanks a lot. I appreciate your time. Thank you. One of the trend lines in the American labor market sits to the pandemic. It's happening slightly less now, but it's still a thing, is that people are looking for change. Not just to change jobs, but to get into a whole other career. They're looking for a better work-life balance, better pay for sure, also more meaningful or fulfilling work.

Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy. My name is Douglas DeStefano. I am located in Rumson, New Jersey. have a conservation business called Monument Conservation Partners, and we restore outdoor bronze sculptures, bronze plaques, and architectural metals. I started this as a side hustle, but hit the pedal to the metal full time at the end of 2023 as I exited this big tech company. When I rebooted after my layoff, I wrote four what I call world famous conservators in the United States and said, hey, how would you like to hire a 63-year-old intern?

Two of them took me up on it. But I've got a lot of books. I'm self-taught. And what we're talking about is really falls into two camps, conservation and a total restoration. I'd say for a conservation of a life size or maybe 1.25 times human scale size statue, I might charge anywhere from, you know, 3,500 to 6,000 for that. For restoration, it could be, you know, 10 times that. The process of removing green corrosion, then repatinating it,

and you might put a couple of coats of ferric nitrate in this case, and then come back and put liver of sulfur on afterwards, and it gives it that depth and kind of warmth to the statue. That's a full restoration, and that's a lot of time. I would drive by towns and see a bad statue, take a bunch of pictures. Call the town, call the mayor, call the business administrator, but it's a long sale cycle. I mean, this project I finished last week in Raritan, I've been talking to the town for three years. They finally found the meager funds needed for me to restore the statue.

What we have here is a torch used in conservation, you know, to heat the sculpture to a certain temperature. First we turn the gas on at the tank, then we turn it on at the wand of the torch, round of propane. Gotta be careful. You know, my daughter, she was like, Dad, you can't do this. You're too old.

If you fall off the scaffold, you need insurance. She's 28 going on 50. We're always careful. Probably worked on over 120 objects in close to three years, maybe 140 objects altogether. It's now turning into a capital intensive because I just ordered a laser of my own instead of renting them or using other people's.

$35,000 for a 300-watt laser. But this is my retirement. I really love my job. Yeah, you know what, me too. Douglas DeStefano, he owns Monument Conservation Partners. Rumson, New Jersey is where he is. wherever you are, whatever you do, and no matter how old you are, Mr. DeStefano was a 63-year-old intern, right? Get in touch. Tell us your story.

Marketplace.org slash my economy. This final note on the way out today, remember a couple of days ago when Alphabet reported earnings, making zillions, of course, but also we learned they are spending over three months almost $50 billion on capital expenditures, most of that on AI. and like a lot of other AI companies, they are borrowing galore to do it. Well, Moody's would like a word. The ratings agency said in a note this week, all of that borrowing, and here's the quote,

threaten credit quality. You don't ever want to hear that. Basically it means it is getting riskier to lend to them, all those big AI companies, making it more expensive for them to borrow. You get the idea. Our theme music was composed by B.J. Leatherman. Marketplace's executive producer is Nancy Pargali.

Joanne Griffith is the chief content officer. Neal Scarborough is the vice president and general manager. And I'm Kyle Rizdal. Have yourselves a great weekend, everybody. We will see you back here on Monday, all right? This is APM. I'm Lee Hawkins, host of Must Be the Money, a podcast from Marketplace. Each week, I speak with inspiring entrepreneurs and business leaders about their lived experiences,

and they share tangible insights to help guide your path to success. Hear from icons like Angelica Nguandu, Van Laithen, Angela Yee, Matt Barnes, and more about how to seize opportunity, manage money, and meet challenges with resilience. Listen to Must Be the Money, wherever you get your podcasts.