Marketplace - The Francis Scott Key Bridge, two years later

Episode Date: March 26, 2026

Two years ago, a shipping container crashed into the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore. Now it’s being rebuilt to be bigger and better. In today’s episode, we take you into the construction site. Plus, a new estimate on global inflation, a concerning trend with unemployment claims, and why the Federal Reserve usually looks past energy shocks. Also, “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal speaks with Janti Soeripto, president and CEO of Save the Children U.S., about how war is complicating the organization’s work.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

It is kind of a choose-your-own economic misadventure with this war. What are you more worried about? Inflation or growth from American public media. This is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Risdahl. It is Thursday, today the 26th of March. Good as always to have you along, everybody. The risks of this war come in many forms, as we know.

And most of them are being covered in-depth elsewhere. But for us, what we're worried is. worried about falls into two big buckets. Threats to global economic growth and threats to global inflation. Along those lines, this news item today, a projection from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that says short-run global inflation is going to be 1.2% higher on average than it would have been had the past three weeks never happened. Also relevant, the OECD didn't, as in did not, raise its forecast for global. global growth as it was expected to, again, three weeks ago. So, which risk ought we worry about

more? Marketplaces Nova Sapo starts us off. Before the war in Iran, the global economy was on a relatively strong footing. With inflation around the world coming under control and growth going to be pretty decent. Ishwar Prasat, professor of economics at Cornell, says economies have been benefiting from AI infrastructure spending and lower overall tariff rates in the U.S. after the Supreme Court struck down a bunch of them. At one level, one could argue that it's good, if good can be used in this context, that you know, the world economy is being hit with a negative shock at a time when it looks somewhat resilient.

That shock, of course, is the effect of closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The OECD's figures underscore Prasad's point. It's projecting slightly slower. global growth than expected, but still growth at 2.9%. Joseph Gagnon is with the Peterson Institute for International Economics. I do think that we probably will not get a recession unless oil prices rise further a lot. And that could happen if there's massive or long-term damage to oil production facilities in the Middle East. Inflation is another story. The OECD forecasts a boost to 4% on average among the world's biggest economy.

from higher energy prices. Ben May of Oxford economics says the risk is that those price increases spread elsewhere. If things like the shortage of fertilizers and the higher energy costs push up things like food prices, but also perhaps the price of some other energy-intensive goods and services. Most central banks are likely to worry about that risk first, says Neil Shearing of capital economics. Their primary concern is going to be that another energy shock, and another leg up in energy prices will de-anchor inflation expectations. As in, we'll expect more of it and create a self-fulfilling loop.

The key ingredient in all of this analysts say is time. Can the Iran war end soon enough to avoid worse economic damage here and abroad? I'm Novosafo for Marketplace. Wall Street, today I'm going to give you the Taco Trade Update because that's what seems to be driving markets of every variety. During the session, equities were terrible, would be a fair word. But 11 minutes after the closing bell, the president said on his social account that he is, and this is a quote, pausing the period of energy plant destruction by 10 days to Monday, April 6, 2026 at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

End of quote. He also said the president did that the Iranians had requested that pause. A fact check on that is obviously impossible. Details on the pre-taco session when we do the numbers. A barrel of crude oil today. Let's use the global benchmark, shall we? Brent North Sea up almost 5.5% you're shy of $108 a barrel. But whatever the day-to-day change that we are all watching and feeling best not to expect the Federal Reserve to do too much about it,

as Chair Powell said more than once at his press conference last. week. It, of course, is kind of standard learning that you look through energy shocks, looking through what we look through the energy inflation. You do look through energy shocks. So we're going to take a couple of minutes to explain what Powell meant by that little nod to macroeconomic management, because it's important that you understand why the Fed mostly looks through energy shocks. Looks through, by the way, it's economists to speak for ignore. Hi, my name is Brian Blank. I'm an associate professor of finance at Mississippi State University. My name is Kara McDaniel. I'm a clinical professor of economics at Arizona State University.

They are our panel today helping us break down what Powell said and what he meant. I assume he's meaning that in response to higher prices, it is not going to be appropriate to raise interest rate targets. We know that usually when inflation starts going up, the Fed starts raising interest rates. See also those rate hikes of 2022 and 2023. However, comma, these are not usual inflation times because the price increases that we have seen so far and most of the price increases yet to come are in energy, which along with food, the Fed usually ignores. The core number is what they want, as in core PCE. You hear me say that all the time.

Core matters because food and energy prices are volatile and really not a good way to predict where overall prices are going to go. drought in Iowa, for instance, smaller soybean crop, higher prices. The Fed is going to look through that. Same, same for energy prices now going up because of a war. That has resulted in what they're going to call a supply shock. This is language that economists and people in my profession talk about all the time, but I think if I went home and talked about it with my family, they would look at me like I had three eyes.

Just so we can avoid anybody looking at us like we have three eyes. A supply shock is exactly what it says. sounds like the supply in this case of oil, moving through the economy is suddenly a lot less than we are used to. And an interest rate increase can't really do much to help that. But, because there is always a but, there is a scenario where the Fed would raise rates in response to everything that's going on right now. They are watching long-term inflation expectations. If this energy shock leads people thinking prices are going to be higher for longer, that can lead to a cycle where prices keep rising faster.

Inflation expectations. We talk about this on the program all the time can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So the Fed's challenge is to keep inflation expectations in check, even though people are still feeling all the other supply shocks of the past few years. COVID, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tariffs, and now war. After each one, people are starting to think maybe this is just normal. This is how it is. And I think that is part of what they're waiting on, but they're definitely concerned that people are starting to assume that there's another shot coming. To be clear, inflation expectations aren't showing that yet.

If you look at measures of long-term inflation expectations, they're hovering in the neighborhood of 2%. 2.3%, to be precise, that's according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pretty much where the Fed wants it to be. I think that's what I have learned over the last few years is that people see higher prices, but their long run still seems to be relatively stable. And so I have interpreted that as the Federal Reserve has done a really good job, ensuring people that they take this very seriously. Fed credibility is what that is, yet another thing that we talk about all the time on this program. Special thanks to Brian Blank at Mississippi State University,

Carrie McDaniel also at Arizona State. In the very early hours of March 26th, two years ago, a container ship hit the Francis Scott Key Bridge over the part of Baltimore. The bridge collapsed. Six construction workers were killed. The city and the harbor lost an iconic piece of infrastructure and the region lost a key piece of interstate highway. On an average weekday, more than 38,000 cars and trucks crossed the key bridge on Interstate

695. It is being rebuilt, not going to be done, though, until, late 2030 fingers crossed, which means that until then, as Marketplace's Stephanie Hughes reports, commuters are going to be feeling it. Before he leaves through his evening shift at the port of Baltimore, Dave Coslin checks to make sure he's got all the necessary gear. You know, got rain boots if it rains, regular shoes, if it doesn't rain. We've got spider spray right there, raid because spiders are starting to come out now and believe me, they're rampant down there. 71-year-old Couslin is a longshoreman. He works as a line handler, which means he attacks. He

attaches rope to the cargo ships coming into dock at the port, and he's itching to get there. It's good to take a ride. Coslin lives in Severn, Maryland, to the south of Baltimore. He used to take the keybridge every day. Now he takes the Baltimore Harbor tunnel. He and everyone else who used to take the keybridge, it seems. Well, here's the traffic start. Look. Where is it right here? The loss of the bridge means drivers like Coslin are collectively spending an extra 21,000 hours of time in traffic every weekday. That's according to

to a spring 2024 analysis by the state. Kausen says his commute has gone from a tight 20 to more than an hour on some days. Of course, you don't like to be late for work because if the ship's coming in, there's four guys. Me and three others to tie it up. And if you're not there, it makes it hard on the three guys. Kausen says he's more likely to turn down a shift now

if he doesn't feel like dealing with traffic. He's also spending more on gas and on food. He used to go home to eat. Now, he's more likely to stay near the port and grab a bite out. He used to get angry when he hit the traffic. I'm accepting it now. There's nothing I can do about it.

I got to accept it. You know, I've got to deal with it. Even if Kozlin is dealing with the traffic, the state says it knows he's tired of it. He is part of the reason we're working so hard. That's Maryland's governor, West Moore. And the reason we're down here making sure this bridge can get rebuilt as fast as possible

is because I want to shorten his commute. It's taking two years longer to build the bridge than originally expected. The state also more than doubled the budget, saying it could cost up to $5.2 billion. The federal government is going to cover the cost. More points out both the original timeline and cost estimate were released just days after the collapse, while the state was dealing with an active disaster.

We literally still had bodies in the water, where we were searching to make sure we were bringing closure and comfort to these families that lost people. And a lot of those estimates were based on when that bridge was built in 1975. Maryland is not rebuilding the key bridge of the 1970s. Instead, the state has designed a taller, longer, cable state bridge that will be able to accommodate bigger ships underneath. We've got to not just plan for the present. We have got to prepare for the future and how we think maritime communications, maritime operations, and maritime commerce is going to continue to evolve. Maryland designed the bulk of the new bridge in 14 months.

The state says that process takes, on average, seven years. It was also able to expedite its environmental review. But Jim Harkness, chief engineer for the Maryland Transportation Authority, says building a bridge that's over two miles long takes a while. Just building and putting in the foundations out in the water is about a year's process. Then we start coming vertical and building those towers at the 600 feet, approximately two years. Imagine a kid building a bridge out of blocks, but in this case, each of those blocks is 20 feet long and takes a month to get in place. And even people who are inconvenience say they, know this can't be rushed. Longshoreman Dave Coslin says this is a big project.

That's a lot of work in planning. That's a lot of work. Still, as a guy who works nights and weekends himself, Cousland says he wants to see the state putting in the same hustle that he does. In Baltimore, I'm Stephanie Hughes for Marketplace. Coming up. The crisis currently unfolding in the Middle East, that is giving our supply chain teams a lot of headaches. If only headaches were the worst of it, First, though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrial's down 469. Today, 1% 45,960. The NASDAQ down 521 points.

That's 2.410% closed at 21,408. The S&P 500 Dove, 114.14 points. 1.7% 64 and 77. Let us remember, though, the Taco Trade 11 minutes after the closing bell. Designer Brands, parent company of the DSW Shoe Store chain, as well as brands like Keds and Jessica Simpson. In other news, Jessica Simpson has a shoe brand. Anyway, reported a quarterly earnings today.

The Cumbless Ohio-based company reported a loss of $20 million. That's 40 cents a share. Good news is that was only half of what it was in the fourth quarter of last year of 2024, that is. Designer brands ascended 5% on the day. Bonds down. Yield on the 10-year T-note rose 4.40% you're listening to Marketplace. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdal.

We're going to detour now into the last. labor market. Friday next brings us the March jobs report by a way of reminder. We are at 4.4% on the unemployment rate as of the last update. Today, though, we got our regular weekly update on what seems to be solidifying as a low-hire, low-fire labor market. There were, we are told, 210,000 first-time claims for unemployment insurance last week, up just a tad from a week earlier, but still low by historical standards. There is, though, a curiosity here. The number of continuing claims for jobless benefits. They fell by about 32,000 the week before last,

and they have been trending down since late last year, which gets us to this. If it is so hard to find a job right now, which it is low hire, low fire, right? Why are fewer people filing those continuing claims? Daniel Ackerman has that one. The war in Iran has pushed energy prices higher, but Guy Berger of the Burning Glass Institute says employers haven't really reacted.

It does not mean that layoffs aren't coming, but so far they are not showing up. He says layoffs have actually been low for months now. That's a big reason continuing unemployment claims have been falling. Another reason is the growing share of job seekers who aren't filing those claims. The majority of the unemployed are typically not eligible for unemployment insurance. Betsy Stevenson at the University of Michigan says you need a work history to get those benefits. There's a lot of young people trying to get entrance into this labor market. who are struggling to do so.

They're not eligible for unemployment insurance. And then there are the folks who have been filing claims, month after month, after month, says Ali Bustamante, an economist at the University of New Orleans. The length of unemployment duration has actually increased drastically. To the point where many have maxed out their benefits. Most states allow people to collect unemployment for about six months, and the share of job seekers who reached that maximum before finding a job has climbed.

from around 30% in 2022 to around 40% at the start of this year, according to data from the Labor Department. The diminishing continued claims is largely a product of just folks rolling off of benefits instead of actually them being rehired. Where the labor market goes from here depends in part on where the war in Iran goes from here, says Michelle Meyer at the MasterCard Economics Institute. The key question is over the duration of this shock. She says if the war drags on.

If energy prices remain at uncomfortably high levels, then I think you start to see the shift in behavior, both corporate behavior and consumer behavior. She says that could make life even harder for job seekers, especially in sectors like manufacturing that are the most sensitive to energy prices. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace. Supply chain disruptions because of the war fall into both of the buckets I mentioned a minute ago. Growth and inflation. You can't grow. Prices are going to go up if supply chains break down. right? That is a challenge that affects all kinds of businesses. Yesterday we heard about what it means for a direct-to-consumer flower business. Non-profit organizations are feeling it too in sometimes more complex ways. That's why we've called Yanti Shripto. She's the president and CEO of Save the Children U.S. She's also worked in leadership on the international side of that organization as well. Yantti, it's good to talk to you again. Thank you for having me.

You know, I was looking back at the very first interview we did almost two years ago now, a year and a half, or so. And it was all about supply chain management and how critical that was for you and what you are doing with Save the Children, U.S. And it occurred to us, and this is why we've called you, that supply chains now are getting tenuous again, and I wonder how that's affecting you. Yeah, that is one way to put in the car, indeed, is definitely the case. Look, just to take a step back, all of our humanitarian responses that we do across the world and certainly also in the Middle East, the supply chain makes up about 75% of that humanitarian response in terms of cost. So as you can imagine with the crisis currently unfolding in the Middle East, that is giving

our supply chain teams a lot of headaches. Did I read somewhere that there are shipments you've got going where the supply chain costs are worth more than the relief supplies themselves? Is that happening? Yeah. In certain cases, that is literally what's happening. And it's actually not even in the Middle East. We have currently stock of pharmaceuticals stuck in India

that we cannot transport across the road anymore to Afghanistan, which is where the destination is. We're looking at air freighting it, which is already incredibly expensive, and it is now twice as expensive as it was before this crisis in the Middle East started because of oil prices. When you speak with your regional directors on the ground

in the more troubled parts of the world right now, what are they telling you, like. Look, it was already a pretty difficult job to be a human terror response leader in Sudan, let's say, or in Gaza or in Lebanon, for that matter. And of course, it's become a lot harder still. You know, specifically when you look at Lebanon now, you know, over a million people displaced, there's an immediate direct link between a war starting and people being displaced and kids being out of school and et cetera, et cetera. So we're responding there and we're proud of it because we did have some preparedness there in terms of extra stock.

You know, our team is being ready to respond expecting a certain level of escalation. But if you're in Sudan, where we are still in Darfur, one of the few large organizations still able to work there, and our stocks are depleting, of course, they're incredibly concerned. You know, the second time we had, Juan, last year, it was a conversation about USAID cuts and what that was going to mean for your relief efforts. and you talked about how tight the budgets were back then. So oil prices up, logistical prices up, supply prices up, I imagine you're even more squeezed

than ever now. Totally. And we're really looking at optionality. We have a very diverse set of suppliers, of products in order to already deal with volatility. But now that's become even harder. Let me give you an example. In Dubai, actually, a lot of humanitarian organizations started to make sure we have more stocks available there, particularly with an...

eye on Asia and to have more options to not have everything, for instance, either in Europe or in the United States. And of course, now we have medicine stuck in Dubai. We now can't use the original ocean route to get it into Darfur. That means we have to reroute it. So there's additional, of course, red tape and costs are now up 20, 30 percent, right? So all of a sudden, that scarce funding is not able to go as far as it could. You said optionality a minute ago, and I picked up on that word because it sounded very corporate to me. You, of course, have a corporate background. We've talked about that. Any sane corporation at this point with a regular for-profit business would look at the Middle East, would look at Lebanon, would look at places where you are and say, you know what, it's not worth it. We can't do it. Is that an option that you are thinking about? That is never an option for save the children, Kai.

Our mission is to serve children, and quite often that is in the hardest to reach places. And getting there has just become a little bit harder and a little bit more expensive. But we are incredibly determined. We have a lot of creativity in the team, and they're going to keep on trying. They have found an alternative route to get the stuff out of Dubai into Port Sudan. It's more expensive. We're going to motor behind it. We have taken quite a more assertive position,

also with some of our suppliers. These are mostly commercial vendors, by the way, not just manufacturers, but also trade for wireless logistics companies, insurance companies. And here I would make a plea to the private sector to think about what they can do to help. If insurance costs all of a sudden become $3,000 per container, if you want to get something out of the Middle East, we have made pleas for humanitarian exemptions, given the extraordinary circumstances. I mean, a collective view from humanitarian agencies towards the private sector here could really help. Are those pleas being answered?

Well, this particularly was indeed being answered, for which we are grateful. And I'm encouraging our teams, but I would also encourage our amazing partners from the private sector to be open to that conversation. We understand that costs have gone up everywhere for everybody. But whatever it is that they can do to help us fulfill our humanitarian mission would go a long way, I think. Yati Saripto, President, also the CEO, saved the children, U.S.

Yati, thanks very much for your time. I know you're busy. Thank you, Kai. This final note on the way out, President Trump had a cabinet meeting today. Many, many words were said, including these. I thought, frankly, I thought the oil prices would go up more, and I thought the stock market would go down more.

The thing is, he's right. If you talk to oil and equities analysts, they don't understand why the reaction hasn't been bigger. The market is an idiot. Words to live by, I'm telling you. Our daily production team includes Livy Burdette, Andy Corbin,

Marielle Hollenhorst, Sarah Leeson, Sean McHenry, McElla Seia, and Sophia Terenzio. Will Story is the supervising senior producer, and I'm Kai Rizdal. We will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is 8 p.m. I'm Rie McRaez,

and this week on my podcast, this is uncomfortable. We're looking at the rise of prediction markets, where you can bet on everything from sports and pop culture to political headlines, a multi-billion dollar industry that's growing at a time when more Americans are questioning the traditional paths to wealth. I feel like the kind of quote-unquote American dream is sort of breaking down.

Like, how could I possibly, you know, buy a home, be able to afford having a family? And then they're also going online and seeing people that are claiming to make all this money doing these alternative, you know, paths to wealth. Be sure to listen to this week's episode of This Is Uncomfortable on your favorite podcast app.