Marketplace - The “great stay”?

Episode Date: June 4, 2024

An April labor report released today shows that hiring, quitting and layoffs didn’t change much from the month before. In this episode, why no news is a sign we’re headed toward a pretty strong (as opposed to a once-in-a-lifetime) labor market. Plus, a traffic report of sorts: “supercommuter” rates rise, e-cargo bikes race ahead in popularity, and air travel isn’t luxurious anymore.

The day will come when we can stop talking about the labor market all the time. Today, however, is not that day. From American public media, this is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizdahl. It is Tuesday today, the 4th of June. Good as always to have you along, everybody. There were, as of the last business day in April of this year, 8,059,000 job openings in this economy. That is roughly the same number of job openings in this economy that there were on the last

business day in March of this year, and is another sign that the American labor market has finally gotten a clue about what the Federal Reserve is trying to do. The numbers came to us courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, JOLTS it's called. We learned employers were hiring in April at exactly the same rate as they were in March. The rate of layoffs and people quitting were the same month over month as well. That comes, as you know, after a couple of years

when companies were scrambling to hire people and brought on a wave of new workers. And it could be a sign that those companies are returning to more of a regular diet. Marketplace's Stephanie Hughes extends the metaphor. Stephanie Hughes In 2021 and 22, employers were hungry for workers. So they gobbled them up. Guy Berger They were stuffing themselves. It's like a bunch of people on the table grabbing stuff off each other's plates. Stephanie Hughes Guy Berger is director of economic research at the

Burning Glass Institute. Employers hired workers as if they'd never get another bite again. Now the hiring rate has come down and is holding steady, and employers aren't laying more people off. Instead, they may be digesting workers now, so to speak. They are just ramping up the workforce they really let on. Like, I'm going to hold on to these people, grow them to their full potential. Also, it's good to remember that employers usually aren't as ravenous as they were earlier this decade. Ethan Strube is a professor of economics at Carleton College.

Where we have been has been so ridiculously unprecedented that if things weren't getting back to normal, I'd be like, what is going on? Strube says this report is a sign the economy is coming back to merely a very good job market as opposed to a once in a lifetime one. And Julia Pollack, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, says there are upsides to workers staying in one place longer. You may build up more firm-specific and industry-specific knowledge. There can be downsides too. Pollack points out that in countries where there's very little turnover, the economies tend to be less dynamic. What we want to avoid is a labor market that becomes sort of stodgy and stale where no one who wants to move can. Pollack says that's not a big problem in the U.S. yet, and she expects hiring to go

up in the next few years because the American workforce is aging and many baby boomers are expected to retire. That means when employers want to start gobbling up workers again, they may find some earlier options are off the menu. I'm Stephanie Hughes from Marketplace. Elsewhere in the federal economic bureaucracy, the Commerce Department was out today with new numbers on April factory orders. How much stuff this economy is making.

Up 7-10% from the month before were those orders. Good, but not great growth. this economy is making, up 7 tenths percent from the month before were those orders good, but not great growth. The third month in a row, in fact, that factory orders have been good enough, even as construction and consumer spending have come in below expectations. Marketplace's Daniel Ackerman took a look at how manufacturing does seem to be holding on. Something to keep in mind about April's modest uptick in factory orders, says Mike Montgomery with S&P Global Market Intelligence, is that it follows a modest downturn late last year. Which is in combination sort of going nowhere very slowly. But there were some bright spots in today's report.

Demand for construction and industrial equipment was up about 2% from the month before. Ned Hill, professor of economic development at the Ohio State University, says the federal government has something to do with that growth. It's going to remain strong because the industrial spending that's triggered by the CHIPS Act and the other national industrial policies is just starting to go into the ground. In other words, we've got factories building factories, or at least components that will then go into semiconductor and battery plants.

And when it comes to orders for consumer goods? The surprise in there was the fact that looking year over year, household appliances is holding up pretty well. But there is evidence in April's data that a couple of years of elevated interest rates are slowing some production lines, says Matt Collier, an economist with Moody's. If you squint enough, you can see that there is softening demand.

So automobiles, people are still buying new cars. But not like they were in the height of the pandemic when dealers couldn't keep cars on the lot. Still, says Collier, as some other economic indicators cool off. Manufacturers have held up pretty admirably. If consumer spending keeps declining, that will hurt manufacturers eventually. But for now, Collier says, factories seem to be chugging along. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace. On Wall Street today, equities, that is, stocks, you know, they did their thing up a little bit.

Bond traders liked what they saw in a softer labor market. Yields drooped just a little bit. We will have the details day that a record 2.9 million people passed through airport security on the Friday of Memorial Day weekend. You might have seen the other day that a record 2.9 million people passed through airport security on the Friday of Memorial Day weekend. Demand for travel has been and remains high as the pandemic recedes from memory. Airline passenger numbers hit new records last year. Also high, though, the number of passenger complaints to federal regulators.

The Department of Transportation finalized some new airline customer service rules last month because between the long lines and cramped quarters and extra fees, air travel has become, shall we say, not great for a lot of people. But as Marketplace's Megan McCarty-Corino reports, it was not always that way. Travel and aviation writer, Benay Wilson, has been obsessed with flying for more than half a century. As the child of an Air Force officer, she flew when a lot of people couldn't. In 1971, her family took Pan Am from New York to London, where her dad was stationed. My mother had us in our Sunday best.

We wore little hats. We had our purses and our white gloves. She still has the ticket her grandmother kept from her transatlantic flight to visit them the following year. I saved it because it reminded me of a bygone era. I mean, back when you had the nice little ticket jackets and it was on that kind of shiny wax paper.

I remember that the fare was $487, which was a lot of money back in 1972. The equivalent of about $3,600 today. At that time, Pan Am was selling a luxury experience. Chances are you've heard about the plane with a spiral staircase in first class. The plane with the two wide aisles and the three widescreen movies and the eight-foot ceilings and economy. The 1950s to the 1970s are regarded as flying's golden age, says Graham Simons, who's written more than 30 books on air travel.

It was the era of gourmet and glamour. Roomy cabins, a cocktail lounge with a live pianist, uniforms off the fashion runway, micro mini skirts and go-go boots. And the food? Damn side better than it is today. Like roast beef carved at your seat and served on bone china, a level of service even in coach that is unrecognizable today. It's dinnertime and you're willing to sell me

an overpriced sandwich which I wouldn't have fed to my dog. Curtis Bass recently retired from a career in human services that had him flying almost every month, something he now tries to avoid. Last fall, airline delays caused him to miss the departure of a cruise and cancellations once added rise to avoid. Last fall, caused him to miss the de and cancellations once ad extra layovers to a trip.

airlines offered was more I feel like I am being tr commodity. So how did air In a word deregulation, says Henry Hardevelt, an industry analyst. During the Golden Age, the government set roots and prices. Airlines competed on the so-called soft product. The piano bars and mini skirts and roast beef. But since deregulation in 1978, he says airlines have competed on price, spinning out every

amenity as an extra, from checked bags to sitting with your kids. It's all helped drive fares down, but hasn't given consumers better choices, says Ganesh Sitaraman, a law professor at Vanderbilt. We have less competition now than we did under the regulated system. In his recent book, Why Flying is Miserable and How to Fix It, he argues consolidation has left consumers beholden to a few big airlines that set the terms. People think that any change has to mean going back to the 70s, and that's just wrong. We can make lots of changes that would improve our system without going back to the 70s. And that's just wrong. We can make lots of changes that would improve

our system without going back to that. Things like mandating bigger seats or more predictable pricing. Travel writer, Benay Wilson is glad to have her memories, but I actually prefer the industry now because more people have access to air travel than ever before. Armed with snacks, a pillow, and noise-canceling headphones, she's booked five flights for the next few months, including a transatlantic one. She paid just over $2,000 for all of them, a better deal than her grandmother got for one trip. I'm Megan McCarty Carino for Marketplace. Emptier, though, offices may be as compared to the before times, most Americans are still

commuting to work at least some of the time. And the distances they're traveling between work and home are getting longer and longer. New research out from Stanford University finds commutes of 40 miles or more one way are on the rise, as many workers have more flexibility about where they live. And the share of people traveling 75 miles or more super commuters, they're called, is up a third since the start of the pandemic. Marketplace of Savannah Marr has more on that one. I-25 between Albuquerque and Santa Fe is not where you want to be during commuter hours. Just ask 25-year-old Sarah Nolt-Caraway.

It's just so crowded. Traffic backs up. Wild drivers. Nolt-Caraway lives in Albuquerque, about 100 miles and two hours from her job at Los Alamos National Laboratories. She says her super commute isn't ideal. It's stressful, it's tiring. But it's only three days a week, thanks to a hybrid work schedule.

And it allows her to hold on to more of her paycheck and maintain her standard of living. A move to pricier Santa Fe could mean roommates. Living with five other people, it does not sound pleasant at all anymore. living with five other people, it does not sound pleasant at all anymore. Most super commuters are making this kind of a trade-off, says economist Nicholas Bloom, who co-authored the Stanford research. Do I live in a small apartment? It doesn't work for us, but I have a shorter commute. Or do I just have two days of, you know, driving hell? And spend the rest of the week in a home that fits your lifestyle.

Bloom says it's a win for employers. You can hire a much more talented and more diverse set of employees. With a larger recruitment radius. But long commutes can also make for burnt out workers. When they're at work, they're going to be tired. It's going to be harder for them to focus. Matt Pieschak is a professor of management at Wayne State University. He says a little transition time between work and home comes with some benefits, but no one needs two hours in the car for that. It's really diminishing returns, and most people would probably rather use that time in a different way. Like going to the gym or hanging out

with their families. Things that help us decompress from work. I'm Savannah Maher for Marketplace. Coming up... Drivers are trained to drive trucks, not small e-cargo bikes. Bigger is definitely not always better, but first, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrial is up 140 today. That's about a third of one percent Closed at 38,711. The Nasdaq added 28 points, almost two tenths percent. Landed at 16,857, did the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 grew seven points, about a tenth percent. 52 and 91. Bath and Body Orgz dropped 12.8%. Today the retailer posted better than expected first quarter earnings and revenue, but issued disappointing second quarter guidance. Lower oil prices hit energy stocks. Chevron slid 0.8% today.

Oxygen and petroleum off 1.1%. Megan was telling us about some of the challenges of modern day air travel. Say more, please. Taking a look at some airline stocks, Delta dipped 1.8%. Now I like flying. American Airlines gave back 0.25%. tenths percent. Now I like flying. American Airlines gave back a quarter percent. Southwest grew four tenths of one percent. Bond prices rose, yield on the ten, your T-note down 4.33 percent.

Money is getting cheaper. You're listening to Marketplace. Seasons change. Why not your tech? Upgrade now during the Dell Technologies summer sale event and save on select PCs like the XPS 16 powered by Intel Core processors. You'll be able to bring your most intensive projects to life with built-in AI, minimalistic design, immersive visuals, and cinematic audio.

When you shop online at dell.com slash deals, you'll have access to exceptional tech and electronics plus free shipping on everything. Amazing prices await you for a limited time only at dell.com slash deals. That's dell.com slash deals. That's Dell.com slash deals. My name is Lee Hawkins. I've been a journalist for over 25 years. On my new podcast, What Happened in Alabama, I get answers to some of the hardest questions about how things came to be for many black Americans and the truth that must come before any reconciliation can happen. I investigate my family

history, my upbringing in Minnesota, and my father's painful nightmares about growing up in Alabama. What Happened in Alabama is a new series confronting the cycles of trauma for myself, my family, and for many Black Americans. Listen now. This is Marketplace. I'm Kyle Rizdall. The 2024 hurricane season, such as it can be officially designated, is, as of today, four days old. Predictions are that it could be the most active on record for the southeast and Gulf Coast.

And among the many preparations being made are billions of dollars to help low-income communities become more resilient in the face of this kind of extreme weather, specifically by harnessing solar energy. Houston, where communities have been battered by disaster after disaster, is getting some of those federal grants and it is where Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval reported our story. I first met with Regina Broadway Johnson in her backyard in Northeast Houston on a warm Saturday afternoon in early May. I love this area. I've been here now 20 years, well over 20 years. In that time, she's seen many natural disasters.

We've been through a few floods, we've been through a lot of hurricanes, we've been through ice storms. Her day job is in insurance. She's also president of her local homeowners association and the neighborhood point person when a disaster strikes. Recently, a community program, West Street Recovery, equipped her with a new shed and disaster supplies. Her grandson, 7-year-old Josiah Keys, shows me his favorite stuff in the shed.

The hard hat and the flashlights, the lantern batteries. Broadway Johnson's home is part of a network of seven community hub houses that activate in an emergency. The plan is to also add solar panels for when power shuts off. West Street Recovery is optimistic it can scale up its network of hub houses if it gets government funding and can harness the power of community leaders like Broadway Johnson who knows her neighbors needs well. Many have had challenges either what repairs on their home, constant increase of payments. She says many of

her neighbors can't afford home or car insurance. Insurers across the country have bumped up premiums as they scramble to cover claims amid more climate related disasters and an increase in construction costs. She says she herself is feeling the pinch. This summer her home insurance payments could nearly double. I'm concerned. And I know if I'm concerned and I work, some of the homeowners that do not work, they may not have insurance. You know, God forbid that we have another disaster. Less than a week after that Saturday afternoon when we spoke, a freak windstorm hit Houston, cutting off power to about a

million residents and businesses. Houston, Texas is reeling after thunderstorms with hurricane force winds tore through the city. The death toll rising to at least seven people, large trees coming down, homes and buildings destroyed the destruction. That was NPR and ABC. Regina Broadway Johnson hunkered down with her husband and son in their bathroom when the storm hit.

All of a sudden the rain is coming down harder and you hear the hail and then you hear the winds and the winds are quick, strong. Afterwards, she went out to survey the damage in the neighborhood. This whole community did not have like 240 plus homeowners, no lights. People just made groceries, lost all their food. Power lines down, streets flooded. It took a toll on a community that lives paycheck to paycheck. Any kind of loss that you have, you're having to think about what bill do I pay? Or am I

going to pass that bill to get groceries? Am I going to pass that bill to get gas? She used supplies in her hubhouse and the West Street Recovery Network so she could deliver fans, battery powered power banks, and small amounts of money to her neighbors to buy food. It was, she says, exhausting. You wipe the tears off and you get ready for the next one. With hurricane season on the Gulf Coast only just beginning, Johnson knows she still has a lot of work to do. In Houston, I'm Elisabeth Troval for Marketplace. The Department of Transportation of the City of New York, where transportation can be challenging,

even in the best of times, has launched a fleet of e-cargo bikes that fit in bike lanes to ferry supplies and deliveries around the city without really getting stuck in traffic. The hope is that package delivery companies will follow suit and make the eco-friendly switch to e-cargo for that last mile in America's most densely populated city. John Cerrico wrote about these new micro mobility devices for New York magazine's Curb the other day. John, welcome to the program. Thanks, Kai. Great to be here. Tell me about these things, e-cargo bikes. First of all, what do they look like? Sure. So the best way to think about them is a bike with a little box attached to the back. It almost feels like you're in a bit of a golf cart.

And these are, you know, I think their proponents argue that this is the future of how we're going to deliver products around urban areas and beyond. And we should point out here that, you know, these little cargo bike things, they're not new. The e-cargo bit is new, but also these are enclosed so they can be locked in and secured as it were. Yes. Yeah. E-cargo bikes have been around for a number of years, but I think the technology specifically of the battery itself, of the lithium-ion battery is particularly what's new and what's really propelled the kind of advent of this technology these last couple of years. Classic last mile problem, right? You don't want these big giant trucks on already jammed Manhattan streets and this is maybe the future? Yeah, exactly. I think the city

really struggles with handling millions of packages being delivered every single day and is trying to figure out just how to reduce congestion or reduce emissions while also keeping the streets safe for both pedestrians and cyclists and drivers as well. I was interested actually in that safety part of this. There are, so first of all, these things are speed limited, right? But also they are large, they have mass. And if you want to get into the physics of it,

if they hit something, yeah, you know, right? Yeah, it would definitely hurt. They're capped at 15 miles per hour, which is a reasonable speed. It's actually a bit slower than the existing electric city bikes, which go decently fast, but still it would hurt if one of them hit you for sure. So it's all well and good that the City Department of Transportation is doing these things and, you know, government leading the way and all that, but you you gotta get FedEx and everybody else on board.

Prospects of that, do you think? Yeah, I think this is where the next couple of years are gonna get really interesting. I mean, you have a supply chain that is built around putting things into trucks. That's how we've gotten our products for the last 50 years. And now they're gonna move to a model where, if this technology really does work,

you are now completely shifting that distribution of products to much smaller and nimble machines. You have to change the way you're charging things, you have to change the way you're dropping off supplies, and also just how you're training drivers. Drivers are trained to drive trucks, not small e-cargo bikes. So it's going to take some time because there's a lot of moving parts there, quite literally. How much time, John? Because it's not like Manhattan's getting any less crowded.

Yeah, no. No, that's for sure. I would say in the next year or two, it's funny since even since I published that piece, I've noticed just a lot more e-cargo bikes on the streets, especially in front of grocery stores. But I think the larger, the big guys like Amazon, FedEx, UPS, are going to take a little bit longer. The push for this is bringing a lot of actual physical changes to the city.

They want to widen the bike lanes to make them actual proper, not huge traffic lanes, but actual proper lanes for bicycles as opposed to the skinny ones that New York has now, right? Yeah. I mean, exactly the way that the city went about 50 years ago, making truck routes, right? I think there needs to be a similar process for e-cargo bikes, if we're really gonna shift to this mode of getting our goods around.

The bike lanes currently are quite narrow, especially given how many people have been cycling since the pandemic, especially. And these are quite big, so you have to really think about how we can fit these on the streets of New York City. You drove one of these puppies What's it like? Yeah, it was it was a fun morning. I would say to find fun John. Yeah, you feel the weight

I mean you feel something that is I think once you get the electricity going through the through the pedal You can move quite easily, but it's completely different physics than a bike You are just a much bigger weight than any normal cyclist. So it's something definitely to get used to. Just scraping in curbs or fire hydrants or anything? I needed some help at some points when I made a U-turn. But I got a little bit of a couple of heaves from the DOT staff but they got me going. John Cerrico writing in New York Magazine's Curb about e-cargo bikes. John, thanks a bunch.

Appreciate your time. Thanks so much. This final note on the way out today, one more labor market item, a calendar reminder, if you will. The May jobs report comes out Friday morning, 830 Washington time. One hundred and seventy-five thousand new jobs, 3.9 percent was the unemployment rate last time around. Anchor your expectations for this time accordingly. And again, I promise one day we will stop talking

about the labor market all the time, but not yet. Our digital and on-demand team includes Carrie Barber, Jordan Manji, Dylan Mietinen, Janet Nguyen, Oga Oxman, Ellen Rolfus, Virginia K. Smith, and Tony Wagner. Francesca Levy is the executive Director of Digital and On Demand. And I'm Kyle Rizdall. We will see you tomorrow everybody. This is APM.

My name is Lee Hawkins. I've been a journalist for over 25 years. This is APM. that must come before any reconciliation can happen. I investigate my family history, my upbringing in Minnesota, and my father's painful nightmares about growing up in Alabama. What Happened in Alabama is a new series confronting the cycles of trauma for myself, my family, and for many Black Americans. Listen now.