Marketplace - The other shoe

Episode Date: May 11, 2026

Inflation and employment are the dual pillars of this economy’s health, which the Federal Reserve is mandated to evenly manage. Last week saw sunny news for the latter category, when the April jobs report was better than expected. Economists anticipate the opposite for the upcoming consumer price index, as the war in Iran inflates prices at home. In this episode, we brace for a dreary CPI. Plus: Adult education programs promise higher wages, retail investors pile on to the chip market, and climate change makes food less nutritious.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Programming is supported by Stole Reeves, a leading U.S. corporate litigation law firm providing sophisticated business clients' high-quality legal services with offices in seven states and Washington, D.C. Stoll Reeves is a nationally recognized leader in project finance and natural resources industries. From deals and disputes to compliance and counseling, clients turn to Stole Reeves for their most complex business challenges. Learn more at S-T-O-E-L.com. The metaphor of the day is shoes, as in when is the other one going to drop? From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Denver, I'm Amy Scott in for Kai Rizdahl. It's Monday, May 11th. Good to have you with us.

I hate to start the week off on a down note after that surprisingly buoyant jobs report we had just before the weekend. It showed strong job creation and low unemployment in April. But the other economic shoe, and there's that metaphor, drops tomorrow with the latest inflation numbers for April, the Consumer Price Index, and forecasters are expecting it to show a big increase in prices led, no surprise, by gas and energy. Marketplaces Mitchell Hartman has the outlook. I heard the word hot from a bunch of economists about tomorrow's inflation data, and not in a good way. Tomorrow's CPI report, it's going to be a hot one.

I'm expecting the second straight extremely hot increase. It's simply unmitigated disaster to have rising energy and related energy commodities. That's Arun Sundaram at CFRA Research, Joe Brousselis at consulting firm RSM and Jay Hatfield at Infrastructure Capital Advisors. Economists expect headline inflation in April to come in at 3.8% year over year. In February, before the Iran war started, it was 2.4%. Jay Hatfield says we've seen this before when inflation spiked during the 1970s OPEC oil embargo. Difference now is that the Iran War is also affecting other key economic inputs.

It's not just an energy price shock, but the closure of the street is impacting a number of commodities exported out of the Middle East, so like aluminum steel and fertilizer. So far, we haven't seen core inflation rising sharply. that excludes food and energy. But it's what Joe Brussela said RSM expects to see in coming months. Second order effects whereby transportation costs junk, and then it begins to show up in food prices. And then later on in the year, due to the disruption of refined products and fertilizers,

we're expecting another round of price increases. U.S. consumers, meanwhile, are increasingly convinced higher inflation is back. Joanne Schu at the University of Michigan consumer surveys says folks are bracing for quite a bit of short-term pain. For the next 12 months, consumers are absolutely expecting those gas price increases to pass through to consumer-facing prices overall. If headline inflation comes in as high as expected for April, it will more than outpace average wage gains over the past year, says RSM's Joe Brusuelas. What that means is people's actual wages, once you adjust for inflation, will likely either be flat or in decline.

And he says even if the Iran war ends tomorrow and supply chains return to normal, price increases already in the pipeline will still keep inflation running high through at least the end of the year. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace. On that last point, an end to the war was looking even more distant today after President Trump rejected a counteroffer from Iran. Wall Street, though, continued to look the other way. We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

If you're a fan of a dense bean salad or homemade hummus, then you probably have chickpeas in your pantry. And yes, they are protein rich and delicious. But it turns out they and a bunch of other food staples might not be as nutritious as they were even a decade ago. And the reason is carbon dioxide. Sarah Kaplan wrote about it at the Washington Post in a story called the invisible force making food less nutritious. Sarah, welcome to the program. Thanks for having me.

So climate change has a lot of consequences for food, but I was surprised to learn that the carbon dioxide itself that's causing global warming is a problem. Can you talk about why? Yeah, so scientists think that it has to do with the way that plants grow. They take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and turn it into carbohydrates. And when there's more carbon in the atmosphere, that's more, you know, quote-unquote food for the, for the plants to grow. But the problem that plants are facing is that there's not a comparable increase in the other kinds of minerals.

Things like zinc and iron, phosphorus, calcium, these really important minerals in the soil that are not so important to the plants, but are really important to the people who consume those plants. And that means that, you know, any given bite of a plant is going to have more sugar in it and less of these essential nutrients. Wow. So I talked about chickpeas. That's a big one. What are some of the other crops that are losing their nutritious value? Yeah. So some researchers in the Netherlands did what's called a meta-analysis last year. And they found that dozens of nutrients across dozens of different crops are all being affected. So that includes everything from really essential staples like, rice and wheat and soybeans to lettuce, to potatoes, to sweet peppers, to canola. And one of the really interesting things is that every plant seems to be affected a little bit differently. So, for example, chickpeas, like you mentioned, you know, between the 1980s and 2040, zinc and chickpeas is expected to decline almost 40%. Wow. But, you know, really it is across the board. Most nutrients in

most plants are seeing some kind of decrease. Across the board, this research, I think, found that nutrients fell by a little over 3% since the late 1980s. But you write that that's actually, it sounds small, but it's pretty significant in terms of the potential health impacts. Yeah, and that's because nutrient deficiency is a huge public health problem around the world. And a lot of people live kind of on the brink of nutrient insufficiency. And so just a small decrease in, particularly in stable crops like rice and wheat, can lead to huge consequences for those people, particularly in low-income countries where a lot of people might get half of their calories from something like rice. You know, if that

rice becomes less nutritious and they're getting half of their calories from it, all of a sudden that's a big decline. So what can we do about this? I mean, is there a way to make up for the loss of nutrition in these crops? Is everyone going to have to take supplements? Yeah, I mean, it really depends on who you are and what resources you have. So those of us who live in wealthy countries where we're able to afford really diverse diets, this shouldn't be too big of a problem. What the experts that I talk to are really worried about is what happens in low-income countries. And, you know, one of the solutions, the potential solutions, is these fortification programs, a lot of countries already have them where they will add nutrients to flour or rice.

But there are something like 2 billion people around the world who already suffer health problems, whether that's anemia from lack of iron or immune system problems from lack of zinc. So if these fortification programs aren't solving the problem that already exists, the experts were kind of dubious that they would be able to compensate for the problem that's going to get even bigger as carbon dioxide and the atmosphere increases. And the obvious solution is to stop emitting carbon dioxide, right? But we are so off track on those goals. And it's interesting.

You actually mentioned this in the story that opponents of climate action often like to say, well, more carbon is good for plants. It increases growth. But this evidence sort of gives lie to that argument, right? Yeah, I think it's a lot more complicated. and they're saying plants need carbon to grow, therefore carbon is good. The other reality is that climate change, which is caused by carbon dioxide pollution, is also making it harder to grow our food. There's wildfires and floods and extreme heat and drought. All of these things are critically

depleting yields. And you get not just a decrease in the quality of crops, but also probably a decrease in quantity, and both of those things are huge problems that really are addressed by reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Sarah Kaplan is a climate reporter for the Washington Post where she wrote about the invisible force making our food less nutritious. She and graphics reporter Nehma Ahmed share the byline on the story. Thanks so much for joining us. Thank you for having me. If you want more on how climate change is affecting our food and vice versa, check out the podcast I host, how we survive. We did a whole season on the topic. And we've got a brand new season coming out later this month. It's all about engineering nature. Large-scale climate interventions, some say could be

our last hope. Here's a sneak peek from the trailer. Are you talking about darkening the sky? So a constellation of sunshades would cast an even dimming of shade across the entire Earth. We're exploring ideas for cooling the planet that are out there, like really out there. Investing that much in building anything in space creates a whole space economy. And talking with entrepreneurs trying to bring these ideas to life. The only thing worse than a private company doing this is no one doing this at all. Do either of you have a science background? We don't.

If we do this, this is a decision that will affect all life on the planet. All we are are guinea pigs in their laboratory. How We Survive, Season 9 launches May 27th. Mitchell talked earlier about the rising cost of living. The latest American affordability tracker from the Urban Institute found that even before the recent run-up and gas prices, nearly half of families struggled to pay for essentials like food, child care, and housing. Wages aren't keeping up with rising costs, even beyond traditionally expensive parts of the country.

One potential solution is adult education, programs that can help people increase their earning power as prices rise. Sarah Ash from the Texas Standard has that story. In a packed auditorium at Austin Community College's Eastview campus, Suha Kabakli addresses students being inducted into the National Adult Education Honor Society. I made a choice. I will pursue my future with determination. In 2010, when she was 17, Palestinian refugee Kabakli moved from Iraq to Austin with no high school diploma in tow. Schooling wasn't so easy for her in Texas either. I was bullied a lot for not speaking English, for wearing scarf. What wasn't expecting was to be that much.

She dropped out after three months, got married, had two kids, and then in 2021, she decided to get her GED so she could have a career of her own. My husband, he told me, go to school, don't just be a home. Don't wait for anybody to do things for you. You fight for yourself. People get GEDs with a variety of career goals, electrician, mortician, EMS, paralegal. But one commonality is that their earning potential goes up when they get the certificate. Sharon Bonney, CEO of the Coalition on Adult Basic Education, says improving educational outcomes for adults is one way to combat the affordability crisis. There have been studies done that show for every dollar given to adult education.

There's a $60 return to the economy because it helps them to get a better job. A better job means people pay more taxes and have more money to buy consumer goods. They are also less likely to need public assistance, according to Literacy Pittsburgh CEO, Carrie Harris. If any, they become much more self-sufficient, and that pays dividends for all of us. Harris says historically adult education enrollment has increased when the economy slows down. This is true not just for GED classes, but also workforce training certifications. Because people need to upskill to get back in the job market and be competitive. Also, because these programs are free for the most part, this is a way to get upskilled without investing, you know, money.

Kabakli says the free classes she can access at Austin Community College after completing her GED was one draw to continuing her education. Her goal is to become a radiologist because of the job prospects, and she also likes the opportunity for continuing education within the field. In radiology, you keep growing, and there is no stop to it. Austin Community College receives money from the federal government to help fund programs like the one Cavalachly is in. These dollars have been uncertain in recent months. President Trump proposed deep cuts in his 26 budget proposal, though Congress did reject them. And when you look at the numbers, it's hard to argue with the value of adult education. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, people with a high school diploma earn about

$10,000 more a year than those without. Adult education can be a long road. But Austin Community College Adult Education Dean Kathy Dowdy says it offers students a way forward. They need a place to come and to have hope. And that's us. Kabakli is on that long road now, taking classes online. Her hope for her daughter, is the same message she shared with her fellow adult ed students at ACC. I want to be a living example for her. I'm fighting for it. And I'm not going to stop fight for it until I get it.

At the moment, that fight looks like an English composition course and elementary statistics. In Austin, I'm Sarah Ash for Marketplace. Coming up, a trip to a solar island in Brazil. But first, let's do the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 95 points. two-tenths percent to finish of 49,704. The NASDAQ added 27 points, 110 percent, to close at 26,000-274. And the S&P 500 ticked up 13 points, two-tenths percent, and at 74-12. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes rose just two-tenths of a percent in April and were flat year over year. Looking at

single-family homes in particular, sales were three-tenths of a percent lower than they were this time last year. Sales were sluggish thanks to higher interest rates. Bonds fell in related news. The yield on the 10-year T-note rose to 4.41 percent. You're listening to Marketplace. If you're trying to grow your business, Intuit QuickBooks payroll is an essential tool that completely integrates payroll, time tracking, HR, and your financials into one powerful platform. And now they're evolving into QuickBooks workforce to help you lead your business with confidence and clarity. QuickBooks Workforce combines human intelligence and AI-powered tools, so you get smart automation without ever losing control.

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That's quickbooks.com slash workforce. This is Marketplace. I'm Amy Scott. Unless you tune out during the numbers, you've no doubt heard that the NASDAQ and S&P have been hitting one record high after another. in spite of all the uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East. That's thanks, of course, to the AI boom and specifically chipmaker stocks. NVIDIA is at the top of the heap, but its competitors, Intel, Micron, AMD, and Qualcomm have been on a tear for the last month or so, too. Research from J.P. Morgan says that's encouraged a slew of retail investors to pile into the chip market.

And as Marketplaces Megan McCarty Carino reports, it could be a small. sign that this boom is headed for a bust. What started as a frenzy for NVIDIA processors has rippled through almost every layer of the computing supply chain as demand for AI has ballooned. The word I hear a lot is parabolic, which is stock prices going straight up. Jay Goldberg, senior analyst at Seaport Research, points to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index of chip designers and manufacturers. It's up more than 50 percent in the last six weeks. And that's giving Goldberg flashbacks of the dot-com boom. Every time you start to hear people saying, this time is different. This is a new economy. I think it's right to sort of be cautious.

At a rush of retail investors, once prices are soaring, and the warning lights really start blinking, says William Quinn, an economic historian at Queen's University, Belfast. He says retail investors tend to be later and less informed than institutional investors. So they're buying because of the hype or because the price has gone up and they're extrapolating not into the future, then the prices can lose all connection to what these assets are actually worth. Quinn says bubbles are often preceded by innovations that make it easier for retail investors to buy and sell assets. The rise of e-trade and the dot-com boom, Robin Hood today.

These trading apps are just the next iteration of that. So now you don't even have to get out of bed to buy and sell these assets. But the business fundamentals of chip companies are much stronger than the dot-coms during the boom, argues Stacey Razgon, senior analyst at Bernstein research. The driver of this, like so far has actually surprisingly been earnings. It hasn't necessarily been irrational. Unlike pets.com, chipmakers are reporting massive revenues, and big tech has signaled ever greater spending. Whether that growth is sustainable is the key question, says Jed Ellerbrook, a portfolio manager at Argent Capital. He says anything from the effects of the war to lackluster returns on investment could slow the data center boom. There is just so much riding on

this AI buildout. That in itself is a risk factor for the market. But for now, the chips are still up. I'm Megan McCarty Carrino for Marketplace. While the U.S. government has retreated from renewable energy under President Trump, the global transition away from fossil fuels continues. The International Energy Agency predicts renewable capacity will more than double by 2030, led mostly by solar energy. In Brazil, some 30,000 solar panels are being installed on a small archipelago that is one of the country's most famous tourist destinations. The aim is to make the area almost completely carbon-free. by next year, part of a wider effort across the country to shift to solar.

Gisela Regatau reports. Fernando de Noronio's main island is tiny, seven square miles, and isolated, 220 miles off the northeast coast of Brazil. A UNESCO World Heritage Site, the island has lush vegetation, huge volcanic rocks, and a blue ocean that is home to dolphins, sharks, turtles, and all sorts of fish. Norunia has around 3,000 residents, and a record of 139,000 tourists visited the archipelago last year, 5% above the limit set by the government. Until now, its electrical grid was powered by a diesel-fueled thermal plant. For many residents here, the shift to solar is a no-brainer.

It will reduce pollution on the island. Diesel is very polluting, says Felipe Silva, a server, at a beach shack. The new solar power plant in Noronia occupies 53 acres right in front of the airport. It will generate 22 megawatts of electricity, almost four times the current consumption. Many residents wanted solar panels to be installed on their roofs to avoid clearing any forests on the island. But Leonardo Mora, operational superintendent of Neoenergia, the company that distributes electricity here, says they couldn't do that.

They needed the plan to be equipped with a battery system that stores energy to serve the island at night. He says the project was approved by the Ministry of Energy and followed all environmental regulations. Our goal was to have the least possible impact.

The solar panels will occupy 1.5% of Noronias' territory, he says. Mora says that starting next year, the diesel plant will just serve as a backup during rainy days, for example. For more than 11 months a year,

the island will be 100% carbon-free, he says. The new plant costs $70 million and is being built in partnership with the federal and state governments. Customers won't pay higher fees, Mora says. More than 40% of Brazil's electricity comes from hydropower, but solar is growing and is already second

with 25%. Solar panels are also being installed in remote regions of the Amazon as part of a federal program. Almost 1 million people in that region don't have access to electricity. John Wordig, energy transition manager at the non-profit

Arrayara, believe solar power makes sense for Noronia. But he says the archipelago also needs to improve energy efficiency. Many public buildings are old, and newer, fancier hotels need more electricity. There are hotels with one jacuzzi.

There are hotels with one jacuzzi per room. That's a crazy idea for an island that has the most beautiful ocean in the world, he says. In addition to the transition to solar, abandoned combustion vehicles was supposed to take effect in Noronia last year. That's on hold until 2030. In Fernando de Noronio, Brazil, I'm Giselle Regatau for Marketplace. This final note on the world. way out today. Coming next year, Wordle, the TV show. The New York Times and NBC Universal announced

today they're teaming up to produce a game show based on the five-letter word guessing game. To be hosted by Savannah Guthrie with Jimmy Fallon as a producer, launched by Welsh software engineer Josh Wardle during COVID, the free game United Lockdown-Wry players across the world before the Times acquired it for an undisclosed low seven-figure sum. Whatever they paid him, today I'm thinking he could have asked for more. Amir Bibawi, Caitlin Esh, John Gordon, Noia Carr, Steve Mullis, and Stephanie Seek are the Marketplace editing staff. Kelly Silvera is the news director, and I'm Amy Scott. Hope to see you back here tomorrow.

This is APN. Business and the ways we do it are changing in ways that are both more subtle and more radical than you realize. Welcome to compound interest from Samifor Business. I'm Liz Hoffman. And I'm Rohan Giswamy. We've been covering the forces behind this revolution. But now we want to talk directly to the people driving that change. Each week, we'll talk to the operators, the experts, and the innovators to go beyond the headlines.

We'll dig into everything from hospitality companies that no longer own hotels to companies that will finance your sushi order. We'll unpack the transformation of how business and consumers engage with our economy and figure out what lies ahead. Listen to compound interest from Semaphore Business wherever you get your podcasts.