Marketplace - We're stocking up

Episode Date: October 6, 2026

We got fresh data showing imports and inventory levels are up. Is it a sign of a strong economy, or a sign businesses are bracing for impact? In this episode, AI remains a major driver of this strange economy. Plus: The U.S. is simultaneously importing and exporting a ton of semiconductors, the euro drops to a 17-month low, and monetary policy disproportionately impacts Black employment rates.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today’s episode:Imports and inventories are rising. Does that mean the economy is strong?Semiconductor imports and exports have been rising all yearThe Black-white employment gap is growing. What's that say about the economy?Sometimes quitting a job is a "real sign of strength"France's debt pushes the euro to 17-month lowWorld Cup business keeps kicking after the final whistle

Trade is the economic currency of the day from American public media. This is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizzol. It is Tuesday. Today, this one is the 6th of October, good as it always is, to have you along, everybody. The trade beat is where we are going to begin today, about which we got a couple of new interesting pieces of data. Item number one, the trade deficit. which got a whole lot bigger in August, thanks in part to us importing more goods and services that month than we did in July.

4.3% more. To be precise, that came from the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning. Item number two, inventory levels rose in September more quickly than they did in August. So says the logistics managers index. Now, yes, trade data can be, I mean, I get it. At least we didn't start with the bond market again, right? But the reality is that any kind of pickup in imports or inventory levels can be a sign that demand in this economy is strong. But as Marketplace's Justin Ho reports to get us going, who and what are fueling that demand, well, that matters too. One big category of goods where imports are rising is the kind of stuff that goes into building data centers. Ben Ayers, says senior economist at Nationwide.

There's a lot of extra materials, technology. and other electronics that need to be imported, particularly semiconductor chips from abroad. That list also includes telecommunications gear, metals, machinery. But ERA says it's not just AI that's fueling demand for imports. Underneath that, we are still seeing a solid level of consumer demand. The main message around consumer demand is resiliency. That resiliency is also one of the reasons why inventories rose in September, says Zach Rogers. He's a professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, and he puts together the logistics managers index.

Rogers says this is happening despite the fact that interest rates and tariffs are making inventories more expensive. Costs are high, but demand is high too. And so high demand is allowing those high costs to continue. But Rogers says he's also seeing signs that companies are uncomfortable making long-term bets on consumer demand. warehousing and transportation capacity is not growing to keep up with inventory. In other words, companies aren't investing as much in new warehouses or buying new trucks because their worried consumer demand might taper off. And so it doesn't really then make sense to put a big investment in something like warehousing if it might only just come online after the party is over.

That said, Rogers also surveys companies that sell to other businesses, think manufacturers and wholesalers. And he says many of them say they're planning to keep. keep investing in inventories, likely because of strong data center demand. Megan Schoenberger, senior economist with KPMG, says AI investment is already starting to outshine consumer spending. GDP is increasingly driven by a narrow set of drivers. Data centers are a very small portion of GDP. Schoenberger says that's not necessarily a bad sign for the overall economy.

It is good for the economy to see this large investment. The fact that it is a very narrow basis. for the economy is more of a risk. Because that investment could always slow down. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace. Wall Street today, there is a new ticker on the block. Out is WBD. In is S-K-Y-D.

That's Skydance, David Ellison's company that has closed its purchase of Warner Brothers discovery. There is still, it seems, a little price discovery to be done on Skydance. Stock shares down 2.5% in the first day of trading. None of that, however, stopped traders from sending two of the major indices to fresh all-time highs. What? Me worry? We'll have the details when we do the numbers. I'm going to go out on a limb here and posit that apart from oil, probably and possibly the most in-demand commodity in the entire global economy right now, is the humble semiconductor. AI, if I have to say it. And in fact, if you dig down into that trade data, we can.

got this morning from the Commerce Department, you will see one of the top categories of U.S. goods exports in August was indeed semiconductors, and those exports have been rising steadily all year. At the same time, we imported more semiconductors, too, both for the month and year-to-date. So Marketplace's Stephanie Hughes spent her day digging into how this key tech commodity moves around the planet. Semiconductors are the guts of pretty much any electronic device. They're used in the grid, data centers, of course, your car. When you press the button to roll up your window, there's a semiconductor that tells it not to pinch your finger. Nina Turner is an analyst with IDC, which estimates about 10% of the

world's semiconductors are manufactured in the U.S. That includes specialty chips used in cars and communications, along with certain types of memory chips. Those in particular have gotten more expensive in the past year. The U.S. has also made exporting chips a priority. Jason Oxman leads the Information Technology Industry Council, a trade group. Semiconductor companies have announced literally billions of dollars worth of investments in the last few years in manufacturing capability in the United States. And the spark for that really was the Chips and Science Act. That's the 2022 law that poured tens of billions of dollars into chip manufacturing.

To be clear, we still import a whole lot more semiconductors than we export. But even many of those have their roots in the U.S. If you only look at who manufactures is, chip and which country that chip comes from, you miss all of the complexity in the value chain. Tufts Professor Chris Miller is author of the book Chip War. He also advises semiconductor startups. You often miss the answer as to who makes the most money per chip. He says almost all of the world's leading chip designers are here in the U.S. and? Often the majority of the profit accrues to the design firm rather than to the companies that

actually do the manufacturing of that chip. And for chips made overseas, that profit comes from an exported service. I'm Stephanie Hughes for Marketplace. We're going to go back in time here for a second, not far, just to last Friday in the September Jobs Report. The unemployment rate you might remember moved up just a bit, a tenth of one percent. But headline figures rarely tell the whole story, and the details can make things look quite different. Specifically, I'm talking about the black unemployment rate in September, which rose a full percentage point to 7%. And it turns out that that can tell us a whole lot about where the labor market might be going as the Federal Reserve's moves on interest rates start to make their way through this economy in that long and variably lagging way

that they do. E.J. Ume is an associate professor of economics at Miami University, where he studies, among other things, monetary policy and racial disparities. Professor Ume, thanks for coming on the program. Thanks for having me. So that unemployment report that we got last Friday that I mentioned just a second ago. What did you make of it? What'd you think? Yeah, yeah. Well, the notable thing that stuck out to me, again, unemployment overall was 4.1 to 4.2 percent, but the black unemployment rate increased from 6 percent to 7 percent, a full percentage point. What we know what researchers have shown is that black workers experience what we call the last high first fire dynamics, meaning they're the last to be employed and they're

the first to be let go. So if it is a case that we're starting to see a slowdown or things are starting to change in the labor market, we would expect to see that uptick in the black unemployment rate before we see it in the overall unemployment rate. Right. Now, to the reason we got you on the program, which is related to that black unemployment rate and what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates, as I said up in the introduction, Milton Friedman, long and variable lag. What does monetary policy do to black Americans in this economy, generally speaking, and then we'll dig in a little bit. Yeah, so we think about the Fed and think about the Central Bank. I mean, their job is to manage employment, you know, achieve maximum employment and also price stability. So when rates are

elevated, they decide to raise rates. Typically, that leads to a contraction in the economy. Financial conditions tighten, so people are let go. And again, you know, the incidence of unemployment doesn't fall equally across race. But in addition to that, when you're you're tightening those financial conditions, that also means that getting access to credit becomes more difficult for a subset of people. And so monetary tightening or tightening financial conditions, again, could have some desperate impact. Right. So let's talk about black Americans then. And what I hear you saying, just to be clear, is that when the Fed tightens, black Americans feel at first, and that can tell us something about what's going on in this economy when the Fed moves

interest rates. Yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying. I think that's an additional source of information that gives us a clear indication of the true strength of the labor market. So if I were to interpret that employment data that we recently saw that uptick in the black unemployment rate, I would say, again, that that's an indicator, right? That's indicating to us that the degree of slack in the labor market may be different than what we were anticipating or what we were expecting just a month prior. All right. So look, let's say Chairman Warsh puts you on one of his task forces about the unemployment,

rate and what monetary policy does to it. How do you convince him to pay more attention to black unemployment sort of as a bellwether? Yeah, I would point to some of the historical lessons that we've learned not too long ago. If we go back to after the financial crisis, we had interest rates, you know, really, really low. And if we look at the difference between the black and white unemployment gap after the financial crisis, we see a really wide gap. But the decade after that, the subsequent decade, we see a reduction in that, the white. white unemployment rate goes to 3.2, the black unemployment goes down to 5.5. And the takeaway from that was that this tight labor market conditions disproportionately benefit

minorities in terms of employment gains. These are the individuals who are gaining from an employment standpoint to people at the lower end of the income distribution, minorities, etc. We're gaining because of this. Do you suppose it's worth letting the economy run a little bit hot to sort of narrow the racial unemployment gap and see what happens? Or is that just not something if that really likes to do. Well, I think that would be a great idea. And maybe that would be something that I would try to convince the chair of the benefits of doing something like that. I'm sure he'll call you after his people.

The benefits are doing something like that because, you know, there are benefits to that, right? We can run the economy a little hot. And again, when we do that, employment gains go to those who are, you know, lower income, who are disadvantaged, right? These disadvantaged groups. And I think for that reason, if nothing else, we should, you know, consider that, especially if inflation is in check. Let me just on the way out here, Professor,

touch on black women for a second because we've done work over the years and there's research that shows that black women are the bellwether in this labor force. They're the binding economic force in their families. They have a lot of the service sector jobs, and this is, of course, a service sector economy. That really is where the Fed ought to be looking, no?

I would agree. I would agree. If we want to take a step further, going beyond just looking at the black, white unemployment, get out for black unemployment, look at the interstate. burden of monetary policy. What impact does it have on black females? Because we know that they face different constraints that say other demographic groups where they're kind of hit with a double

whammy being black, right, that adverse labor market conditions and then also being female. And like you said, there are stuck a lot of the black women are in service sectors or in employment sectors that are really sensitive to downturns. And so when the economy turns for the worst, well, those sectors are likely to get hit, which is to say that the adverse consequences from tighter monetary policy, it's likely to disproportionately affect black women. E.J. Umey at Miami University, Professor, thanks for your time, sir. I appreciate it. Thank you. There was a report out from Gallup a couple of months ago that found one in four adult

workers in this economy. That's about 23 million people are staying in jobs they don't want because they're afraid of losing their health insurance. That's an 8% bump from just 2021. And it's also the setup for this next installment of our series clocked out. My name is Sarah Wallace. I live in Raleigh, North Carolina. I am taking a break from a career in finance, and I am 50 years old. So I left my job in April of 2026. It was my choice. It was, I mean, really probably a two-year journey to sort of get to that point where I was not feeling as energized by the work as I, had used to and you sort of struggled with, this is a good job. And so I really just realized that I had

grown and changed and it just wasn't for me. I decided to take some time and just figure out more about what I am actually interested in. The one piece that felt a little more uncertain was the insurance. And, you know, my husband hasn't always had a job that provides insurance. And he started a job last year, a very good job where he does get insurance. And even as we thought about the timing, you know, I said, I'm going to need you to keep this job, to keep the insurance, you know, while I take my time. And he's, you know, he's like, well, give me a few more months to make sure, you know, it's a really good fit. And I'm very stable there at the job. And we've found that, you know, with the unexpected cancer diagnosis for my husband, you know, if we didn't have his insurance, you know, this, it could be a

devastating financial impact. One of the aspects of quitting my job that had sort of held me back was not wanting to appear weak or that I had given up. And when I changed my perspective on that, it's actually a real sign of strength to be able to say, I'm done with this chapter. I'm ready to move on to another one. And I know I don't have it figured out, but I'm confident that I will. It was a decision I solely made for myself and it felt good. As I think about 2027 and, you know, potentially returning to work, you know, I think about my new definition of success, which is not tied to job titles and is not tied to an income level. I don't really know what that looks like. I don't have a timeline and I don't have a specific goal targeted yet.

I like not knowing what's next. Seems a little scary, man. I don't know. Sarah Wallace, she's in Raleigh, North Carolina. If you have a story about finding what is next for you, a new job, or something else entirely, we'd love it if you'd tell us about it. Marketplace.org slash clocked out. Coming up. At the same time, we really didn't know what we were doing. I mean, who does, you know? First, though, let's do the numbers.

Dow Industrial's up 253. Today, about a half percent, 51, 521, 521. The NASDAQ gained 122 points, 4 tenths percent, 27,59. S&P 500 picked up 44 points, about 6 tenth percent, 78 and 18. 16 years ago this very day is going to make you feel old. Instagram hit the Apple store. The app ushered in the era of sharing pictures and now videos of lunches and pets and kids and everything in between. Just two years later, Facebook, now Meta, bought Instagram for a billion dollars.

Meta today down 4 tenths percent. Apple crept up two-tenths of 1%. Bonds up, yield on the 10-year Tino down 5.28% you're listening to Marketplace. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Risdahl. One euro can be had today for about a buck 13. That's the weakest the single currency's been in about a year and a half. There is, of course, always a whole lot of moving parts in the foreign exchange markets, but the proximate cause at the moment comes to us from the streets of France,

where protests across the country have put the French economy between those matters, protests and the bond market. France, as you might have heard, has a generous social safety net, a generous and not cheap social safety net. And as marketplace to Samantha Fields reports, the borrowing math now just isn't mathing. For more than a decade from the Great Recession through the pandemic, interest rates were historically low. Leading economists, people on Wall Street at central banks all thought interest rates would stay low forever. Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, says governments thought so too. So they borrowed a lot. Not only that.

They said, oh, and don't bother borrowing long term. In other words, taking out a 30-year mortgage instead of a flexible rate mortgage. The flexible rate borrowing is cheaper. Do short-term borrowing. Some countries did that more than others, he says. France was one of them. Paul Christopher at Wells Fargo Investment Institute says now it's coming time for France to refinance a lot of that debt, and interest rates are much higher. Imagine yourself at a mortgage situation. You borrowed it at 2.5%, but now you want to move, and now the mortgage rate is 7%. Well, that's going to make a huge difference in your monthly payment. That's exactly what's happening in France and in other countries. And in France, it's happening at a time of political instability. Veronique de Rougé, at George Mason University's Mercatus Center, says,

ahead of presidential elections next year. One guy is talking about erasing the debt and basically defaulting. And the other one wants to reverse the retirement age reform to basically allow French people to retire at 60, which was a source of the financial problem of the country. All of this is making investors nervous, she says, and less inclined to buy French bonds. It's not just that people aren't buying. They're selling off. French government bonds.

And they're selling Euros, too, spooked by the turmoil. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace. Our series Clocked Out is all about career changes, forced or otherwise, and retirement and life beyond work. All of that is tough for everybody. For professional athletes, that life after work thing can come real fast and often not by choice. One way or another, though, they all find a way forward after that final whistle is blown. Jordan Derselva is a former professional soccer player and now a co-founder of Neighborhood Sports

Club up in Oakland, California. Jordan, thanks for coming on the program. Thank you. Thanks for having me. I'm so excited. Well, me too. Well, look, I'm a soccer guy, but that's a whole different interview. Wow. Tell me about neighborhood sports club. Easy. So it really originated from not having a space or community. after we were done with our careers. It's me, Dylan, my husband, and Max, our best friend, and we all played professionally. Me personally, I've had seven major knee surgeries and couldn't always play, but that didn't mean that I didn't want to or didn't want to be involved. And so it was a way for us to create community ourselves. It was a way for us to get into design,

get into apparel and everything that really encompasses the sport, but you might not always see or have access to when you're playing the sport. Right. So tell me about the brick and mortar space and what it was like during the World Cup. Oh, yeah. That was crazy. I mean, since day one, which was May 22, our goal was to be open for the World Cup, especially happening in the United States. And it was a struggle. It really was a hard, long process. We were young, of course, when we got into it, which was helpful because we were kind of naive and thought, oh, how hard is it to find? a space where we can put a small-sided soccer fields, a cafe, and a little retail space in one.

Okay, you know what? It was going to be hard. You should have called me because I could have told you. I know, exactly. And so we really wanted it to be in Oakland specifically. The Oakland Roots was so successful when being in Oakland. Dillon and Max both played for them. So Oakland was really like this spot. At the same time, we really didn't know what we were doing. And so we leaned on a lot of our support systems. Thankfully, we're able to open May 2026, and it was just nonstop for the past three months due to the World Cup, which was amazing. What's it like there on a game day, classically, right? I mean, what's the crowd like? So during the World Cup specifically, it was chaos in the best way. A lot of people mentioned how it felt like they were watching it

at their neighbor's house. We didn't want to give the classic sport bar vibe. I mean, the World Cup final, we had 500 people there. Everyone sitting on the grass, watching it on this big LED screen. It was very much so a community hub for Oakland and Bay Area residents that we had envisioned. And so it was so fun to just see everyone get to experience it. 27 Women's World Cup, yes? Yes, so excited. I think I obviously personally am very, very. excited about this. I think the NWSL and just women's soccer in general has really taken off the past year. And with the World Cup that just happened, I think all that excitement can just carry

over to this next summer. And I think for our space too, we already have a women's only league. We already have a women's only pickup that we get over 40 women out to. And so being able to offer even more to them, just making sure it's accessible as possible at our space. I'm just really excited for them to experience and have that chance to see that community as well. Yeah, for sure. Jordan DeSalva, neighborhood sports club up in Oakland. Jordan, thanks a lot. I appreciate you, time.

Thank you so much. This final note on the way out today, which, given where the markets are, may or may not be a surprise, and may or may not be welcome news to the broader public, the New York State Controller says he figures financial sector bonuses tied, of course to bank profits, are going to set a new record this year. On that note, next week we start getting third quarter earnings reports from those same big Wall Street banks. Jordan Manjee Zaneal Maharaj, Janet Wyn, Olga Oxman, and Virginia K. Smith are the digital team. I'm Kai Rizdahl. We will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is 8 p.m.