Marketplace - What to expect in the April jobs report

Episode Date: May 6, 2026

The private sector added twice as many jobs in March as it did in April — it’s a promising sign in an otherwise perplexing labor market. Private sector gains could translate to an overall boost in the upcoming BLS jobs report. But even if the quantity of jobs goes up, there are still some negative indicators to keep an eye on. Also in this episode: Corpus Christi's water crisis collides with an energy sector boom and Disney sees revenue wins after raising streaming prices.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Right now, you can help unlock $25,000 from the Marketplace Investor Challenge Fund. That means your support for Marketplace goes even further, helping keep trusted economic reporting free for everyone. Answer the call of Marketplace investors who've made extra gifts to the Investor Challenge Fund to inspire you to take action. Be one of 500 gifts needed by Friday to unlock $25,000 in extra funding. Donate now at Marketplace.org or click the link in the show notes. And as always, thanks.

The job market or the energy market. The job market or the energy market. The job market or the energy market? You know what? We can do both. From American public media. This is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizzol.

It is Wednesday, today the 6th of May. Good as always, to have you along, everybody. We're going to start with jobs because, well, you got to choose. And there was some labor market news this morning. The payroll processing company ADP says private employers added 109,000 jobs last month, more than expected. Also nearly double the March number. The official tally, as you might remember, comes Friday from the Labor Department. It will be the latest update in a topsy-turvy start to this labor market year. Good thing then, but we've got marketplaces Mitchell Harman to make sense of it all for us.

Economist's predictions for April job creation are all over the map from 50,000 on up. Bill Adams at Fifth Third Commercial Bank is predicting 120,000 new jobs after the bullish report on private sector growth from ADP. Employers added jobs at the fastest pace since early 2025. Jobless claims ticking lower in recent weeks. Another sign that people who are losing jobs are finding them relatively quickly. True, the Iran war and soaring oil prices are a major source of uncertainty for employers going forward. But Adams says after holding back on hiring in the face of tariff uncertainty last year, many businesses are now feeling more confident. With tailwinds from tax cuts at the turn of the year increases in government spending and then the Fed's rate cuts in late 2025, I think a lot of businesses feel they are ready to move forward with some hiring that they may have delayed in 2025.

There are worrying signs in the mix of jobs the economy's creating, says Dan North at credit insurer Alianz trade. What growth there has been in jobs has mostly come in one industry, health care. Driven largely by the needs of aging baby boomers. That to me is a little bit fragile. Gosh, what would it be if we didn't have an aging population? Well, then you'd have to wonder, oh, where is the growth coming from? Another cause for concern, deteriorating wage growth, says Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Back in 2024 and 2025, average hourly earnings were rising around 4% a year. But by March 26, wage gains had fallen to just 3.5% at the same time inflation was spiking from the Iran War. In a context where inflation is somewhere around 3%, you're talking about real wage growth going to near zero. eroding workers purchasing power. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace. Wall Street today broken record, though I may sound like traders do seem to be thinking, again, that the war is almost over. We will have the details when we do the numbers.

Well fell today down quite a bit, actually, on news that negotiations to end the war might be getting serious. Still, though, the Strait of Hormuz is functionally closed. Global supplies are down, all while oil demand has stayed, pretty consistent for now. Anyway, we have called Catherine Wolfram to talk it over. She's a professor of energy economics at MIT's Sloan School of Management. We'll talk oil and something called demand destruction here in this ninth week of the war. Professor Wolfram, thanks for being on the program. Thanks so much for having me. At the risk of oversimplifying, perhaps, but also in search of clarity, could you use demand destruction in a sentence for me, please?

Sure. When the price of a good goes up, then consumers consume less of it. And the difference between what they were consuming before the price went up and what they're consuming after the price went up is the demand that's destroyed. Excellent. Now, we have had, as anybody who's been reading the papers or listening to the radio knows, we've had supply destruction, right, by a fairly well with the straight of hormones closed. why haven't we actually seen as much demand destruction as one might have theorized? So I'm not sure what one might have theorized, but what demand destruction is doing right now is helping us balance the market. So we should be very welcoming to the demand destruction that we are seeing because, as you said, the supply is going away because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So really what's balancing the market is the demand destruction. in partnership with some inventories that are being tapped into and that are coming on to the market right now. So let's get to those inventories because at some point with as much oil as is locked in to the Persian Gulf right now as is locked in,

we're going to get to the last barrel of those inventories, sort of, you know, macro speaking here. What does that look like? No, I guess I don't think we'll ever get to those last barrels because the inventories are super valuable as kind of like a rainy day fund. But the longer the supply shock goes on, the more it's like not a shock. It's just the new normal. And so then you got to start making sure that the demand and supply balance and you can't do that with inventories forever. You kind of want to save them for another rainy day or, you know, an even worse rainy day. So we're not just going to draw down the inventories until they go away. We will start the longer this last, we'll start having to adjust

to a new normal. And that new normal will be demand being destroyed and prices going up, yes? Yep, yep, it will. All right. Or new supply coming on the market as well. I mean, at the higher prices, that's what you'll see. You seem very calm at a time when oil markets are just going haywire. Yeah, I mean, I'm calm because I believe in markets, and I think markets will help us balance things.

But I don't want to be too glib about it. I mean, yeah, I guess I worry more about the demand that's not being destroyed because that's the demand that's left paying the really high prices. Say more about that. Yeah, I mean, the demand that is being destroyed, that's where people are finding alternatives. Maybe they are not traveling to see a friend, but they are still commuting to go to work. And when they commute to go to work, they're paying much higher gas prices than they were before. and that crowds out other spending. That's just, you know, that's hard on consumers' pocketbooks and on firm's bottom lines.

Yeah. What's it like teaching energy economics 101 at MIT these days? Must be an interesting time. Yeah, so I came into it. I'm co-teaching with a colleague of mine, and he's teaching the electricity half, and I'm kind of jealous because – I'm sorry to laugh. That's funny. He gets electricity.

You get oil? Yeah, I get oil. Oil and gas. But, man, did I get the good draw this year? It's been super interesting. I bet it has. And a little tiring. Come on, right?

Yeah, I've got to make slides like 30 minutes before class so that they're up to date. I don't want to make them the night before because things might change. And don't check your social feed. Catherine Wolfer is a professor of economics, energy economics, actually, at MIT, the Sloan School Amendment. Professor, thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Thanks so much. Take care.

Almost half of this entire country is in a drought. That's according to drought monitor. There are varying levels of severity, of course, and varying levels of economic risk and uncertainty that come with that drought. In Corpus Christi, Texas, where the energy sector is a key driver of the regional economy, but also a major water user, things have already reached a crisis, as marketplaces Elizabeth Troval reports. It's weeks away from hurricane season here on the Texas Gulf Coast.

And it couldn't come soon enough for people here in Corpus Christi like Bob Paulson. Sort of a dark joke that you hear around town all the time. We're praying to get head on, direct hit by a hurricane. That's because Corpus Christi needs the rain desperately. The local lake and reservoir are at just 8%. If the city doesn't get enough rainfall by September, there are plans for widespread 25% cuts to water usage. businesses like the Texas State Aquarium are preparing.

So we're bringing in raw salt water. We basically send it through really, really large sand filters, same thing you would see on your pool. I'm in a backroom with aquarium CEO Jesse Gilbert, who was showing me where water from the Corpus Christi Bay flows in. This is the water of the sharks and stingrays swim in. The water is our top priority because the water is not right. The animal is living in it can't be healthy. While most of the aquarium's water comes directly from the ocean, they still use freshwater to operate their bathrooms, eateries, and splash park. Back in his office, Gilbert tells me they're undergoing plans to decrease their freshwater use by 30%.

We've developed some clever ways to completely take the splash park off of the potable water systems. As the city's biggest tourist attraction besides the beach, I ask him if he worries if the brand of Corpus Christi is hurt by this crisis. I think about it every day. It sounds like we don't have water and you can't come and, you know, and enjoy a vacation in Corpus Christi. That's not true. And he has a longer-term worry, attracting aquarium staff who may not want to move to a city in a water crisis. Directly across the ship channel from the aquarium, I talked to Port of Corpus Christi CEO Kent Britain. So every day through this ship channel moves about $340 million worth of goods.

majority of it is export. The port here is busier than ever. Crude oil, LNG, diesel, jet fuel, gasoline. What the world is in short supply of right now moves through this energy hub. These exporters are an engine of the local economy. Many are also big water users, which is why Britain says the city needs to find more sources of water. We don't want anyone to have to shut down. We don't want curtailment.

We don't want it for our industry. We don't want it for our residents. Even if the city isn't enforcing large-scale curtailment yet, the looming water crisis? It's going to limit our ability to bring in large-scale industry in the future. I ask him if he's seen companies decide not to come to Corpus because of the water issues. We have had a couple that were very favorable to come in here in past years, who ended up making a decision not to because of the dwindling water supplies. The energy industry is a major consumer of water.

The city knew that when they approved. approved plans to sell their water. Frequently, things are portrayed as industry uses too much water. That's Bob Paulson with the Coastal Bend Industry Association, which represents the big energy and chemical companies in town. I think that misses the point, the larger point, that it's a combination of long-term drought along with 100% dependence on surface water. He says industry has been updating their facilities to use less water ahead of large-scale

water curtailment. But he says if the water crisis did end up forcing industry to shut down operations. I mean, you're talking about probably hundreds of folks that don't have a job. On the Corpus Christi Bay, the energy industry is booming, but the impending water crisis here is casting a shadow on this so-called sparkling city by the sea. In Corpus Christi, Texas, I'm Elizabeth Troval, her marketplace. That ADP payroll report this morning showed hiring is happening at companies both big and small. So we called one of our regulars whose business is decidedly on the smaller side. Eric Vaughn runs the custom framing shop. Eric's I've been framed.

It's in Detroit, Michigan. It's always busy around here. Got a lot to do, just come off of a major contract with the Detroit Institute of Arts. We did about 150 frames. Yes, 150 frames. And so it was pretty big this year. We're getting a lot of new clients. A lot of times new clients aren't really familiar with custom picture framing.

It's been a little tough because, you know, I spend a lot of time working with a client and everything is gone. up in pricing. That's been a challenge because you know, the pricing of frames have gone up, the price to ship pieces have gone up. Overall, it's just been a really tough kind of thing to do and to

educate people on on, you know, the new pricing. But, you know, we seem to overcome it. It's just me and one other guy and he's kind of up there in age like myself. I had a young man to come in yesterday. He was interested

in employment here, and I gave him a card. So, okay, just call me back. And so that was just yesterday. So the horizon looks pretty good with trying to hire someone, and hopefully, you know, he can meet all of my little requirements. My wife is also a business owner, and she's having the same kind of issues and trying to find help and trying to figure out how

We're going to retire. So, so yeah, we're just, but I'm still having fun, and I don't know if she's having as much fun as I am, but I know I'm having a good time, having fun with the people and working with clients. Eric Vaughn making custom frames, having fun too in Detroit. Coming up. A couple years ago, it was like a man's sanctuary.

You come and go, everybody comes to the barbershop, the plumber, the dentist. As times change, economies change, First, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrial's up $612. Today, 1.5%. 505%.

Finished at 49,910. The NASDAQ added 512 points. That is 2%. 25,000 to 838. The S&P 500 gained 105 points, 1.5%. 7365.

One does wonder whether traders are reading the room. Remember how Kraft-Hines was going to split itself into two companies, but then paused that breakup earlier this year? Since then, it's done pretty well. The condiment and grocery

maker beat analyst expectations and profit estimates for quarter number one. Kraft Heinz cooked up two and a third percent today. The AI boom is brightening the outlook for a 175-year-old glassmaking company. Any guesses? Come on, you'll know it as soon as I say it, Corning. lit up 12 percent after announcing it a deal to make advanced fiber optic products for Nvidia. The chipmaker accumulated five and two-thirds of one percent on the day. Cosmetics conglomerate Cody told investors' sales are taking a hit because of The war in the Middle East, petroleum, very big in that industry.

The parents of Conley, Cosmetics, and Cover Girl added 3.5%. You're listening to Marketplace. Right now, you can help unlock $25,000 from the Marketplace Investor Challenge Fund. That means your support for Marketplace goes even further, helping keep trusted economic reporting free for everyone. Answer the call of Marketplace investors who've made extra gifts to the Investor Challenge Fund to inspire you to take action. Be one of 500 gifts needed by $1,500.

Friday to unlock $25,000 in extra funding. Donate now at Marketplace.org or click the link in the show notes. And as always, thanks. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Risdahl. The new-ish CEO of the Walt Disney company is loving life right now. Disney reported stronger than expected quarterly earnings today, Josh DeMorrow's first as the guy in charge. Streaming was a particular bright spot. It's now a bigger business than linear television is for Disney's entertainment. division. It's what happens, I guess, when you raise prices like all the big platforms have been doing. Netflix announced its second price hike in just over a year the other day. It seems we are firmly in the era of streaming profitability, whether consumers are grumpy about it or not. Marketplace's

Megan McCarty Carino has that story. Back in the innocent days of early 2023, when I first connected with New Orleans sports fanatic Jonathan Barnes, he subscribed to streaming services with abandoned, usually seven or eight at a time. But things have changed, he tells me today. You start having to lick at your bank account and saying, okay, well, you know, how much am I actually watching all six, seven, eight of these subscription services? Which ones do I truly, truly need? For Barnes, who has a young kid, Disney Plus is non-negotiable. They kind of have me in the chokehold. He's a big WWE fan. He's got YouTube live to cover sports and added on Hulu with his Disney bundle. We're not thrilled because, again, the subscription services continue to go up, but we felt that

consolidating them was much more effective. The subsidized streaming party is long over, says Ross Benish, a senior analyst at e-marketer. You know, streaming wasn't going to be something for the users. It's there to make money for the mass media companies. But he says consumers seem to be getting used to it. You're seeing something similar that you saw with cable for years, where people, People would complain their bill was going up, but they would still pay for it. In fact, households surveyed by market research firm Parks Associates actually increased the number of services they subscribed to over the last quarter. An average of six, says Director of Research Michael Goodman. The amount household spend also increased in that period from $108 to $113 per month.

I think bundling has a lot to do with this because they're able to get more bang for their buck here, that they're able to get multiple services without having to pay for each one individually. Consumers are also looking for value, often choosing lower-priced plans with ads, says John Gigan Gaggack with Hub Entertainment Research. We didn't used to see people switch back and forth between tiers all that often, but it's definitely something that's happening more often, and I think it's something that will continue to go on as the prices continue to rise. He says consumers also report feeling less bothered by ads than they were in the past.

Or maybe they're just resigned to them. I'm Megan McCarty Carino for Marketplace. It's tough to overstate how important the barbershop is in black American culture. It's been the subject of paintings, the setting for movies, and at least one talk show. It's a place for men to talk sports and politics and whatever else is on their minds. But barbershop culture is changing, and it turns out the pandemic and the ensuing hangover had a lot to do with that. From Brooklyn, here's James Bennett the second. For years.

Decades even. I watched peers and guys older than me go to the barber's shop every other week. It seemed like the norm. But then COVID hit. And a lot of us started working from home. I used to work in the office all the time. So I would get a haircut religiously like every one and a half to two weeks. And then the pandemic happened. So people basically stop taking care of themselves. This is Evan Harris. He used to pay his barber $25 cash for those haircuts. And after the pandemic, the price rose to about $60. after tip. And then he had a revelation.

I realized, like, I don't need to get a haircut as frequently. I work from home, semi-frequently now. It's less important to be, like, super crisp all the time. One of the big reasons the price of a haircut is going up is because barbers are spending more on supplies. Sherwood Delora cuts hair at a shop in Fort Green. He says a pack of once $5 raisers are now 10. A roll of paper neck strips wants 50 cents or a dollar,

now three bucks. And the spray he uses to clean and disinfect the blades. The cool care used to be $699. Now you go to the store, you'll probably play $15 for a can of cool care. I'm a pair of clippers run you anywhere between $150 to $300. A few years ago, those clippers could have run as little as $80. Rising costs have forced him to up the price of his haircuts by more than 50% over the past five years.

And now that he's charging that much, he says customers want their routine haircut to feel like a luxury experience. When you go to see a doctor, he's always in his white gown. You know, you go to an office, you know, he's dressed properly. Why can't you? Because you're giving a service to the public. People want to see a value standard for your pricing. Delors has been a barber for over 15 years. And one of the biggest changes he's seen is customers who come in less frequently than they used to.

Full disclosure, he's been my barber. for more than five years. I would have clients come in maybe three times a month. Now, you get it probably once a month, you know, so it's... I see you looking at me, man. No, no, no, no, no. Yeah, you're one of them. He's right.

These days, I get in there about every month and a half. Higher prices have also changed the culture inside the barbershop. Dexter Barrow cuts hair in the more working-class neighborhood of Flatbush. He's now charging 40 bucks up from $25. in 2019, and he's noticed a different feeling in his shop, too. A couple of years ago, it was like a man's sanctuary. You come and go, everybody comes to the barbershop, the plumber, the dentist, the lawyers, everybody becomes a one way to come to the shop.

But now, with the higher prices and the vibe shift, Barrow says fewer people are just hanging around the shop. Today is just like a more business transaction. It's a cut and go, get their money and go. In charging and getting paid more, some barbers have talked to, feel like they're being recognized as the professionals they always have been. And some customers see the new prices as the cost of keeping a community tradition alive. In New York, I am James Bennett of the Second from Marketplace.

This final note on the way out today in which one appreciates that presidential administrations do try to spin the news to their best advantage. Kevin Hassett, the director of President Trump's National Economic Council, went on Fox News today to offer his take. Credit card spending is through the roof. They're spending more on gasoline, but they're spending more on everything else, too. Maxing out credit cards? Usually suboptimal, economically speaking. Hassett also said this morning, by the way, that he expects economic growth to hit 4% this year. Latest reading we had the other day, 2% on the nose. Our media production team includes Brian Allison, John Fokie, Montana Johnson, Drew Jostet, Gary O'Keefe, Charlton Thorpe as well. Alex Simpson is the manager of media production. And I'm Kai Risdahl.

We will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is APM. Business and the ways we do it are changing in ways that are both more subtle and more radical than you realize. Welcome to compound interest from Samafour business. I'm Liz Hoffman. And I'm Rohan Goswamy. We've been covering the forces behind this revolution. But now we want to talk directly to the people driving that change.

Each week, we'll talk to the operators, the experts, and the innovators to go beyond the headlines. We'll dig into everything from hospitality companies that no longer own hotels to companies that will finance your sushi order. We'll unpack the transformation of how business and consumers engage with our economy and figure out what lies ahead. Listen to compound interest from Semaphore Business wherever you get your podcasts.