MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: 2024 UFC Champion Futures, Plus Best Bets For UFC Vegas 84

Episode Date: January 10, 2024

The boys are back! That's right, the first fight card of 2024 is set to take place this Saturday at the world famous UFC Apex and you know what that means: The No Bets Barred boys are back with all their best bets. This week, hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick the new year off right with a deep dive into all of the Future UFC Champions bets for 2024. Then it's right into a breakdown of UFC Vegas 84 as another year of 40+ UFC events kicks off. Is this the year Magomed Ankalaev finally wins the light heavyweight title? Are Flyweight Unders going to return in 2024? Who has the best chance to pull off a Sean Strickland-esque championship run out of nowhere? And what the (Mike) Heck is going on with Jon Jones, Tom Aspinall, and the UFC heavyweight title. All this and more is discussed on the first No Bets Barred of 2024. Tune in for episode 74 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine, available now, only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back. We're back. Not just with another edition of No Bet's Bard, but in a brand new year, last time we talked to you,

it was in the great year of 2023. We are now in 2020. We flipped the calendar, a whole new year to be had of UFC events. What would you just say? How many? Oh, I'm, you know, I think we had 46, 23. So something looking like that for us this year. Yeah, I mean, you know, how it goes.

You kind of start off. Like, I know we'll do two events and then a break. And there's a couple breaks sprinkled throughout the springtime. But man, once we hit that summer, At like June, that's when it's just, that's when it turns into the grind. Looks like we had 42 events last year. So 42 out of 52 weeks, we were coming at you. Actually, I think we even did a couple down weeks too.

Yeah, I think we had a few. I know we did PFL World Championships. I think we had a couple additional episodes in there. So, yeah, I mean, another year of no-bets barred. Here we go. Episode one, UFC Apex 84, the rematch. Magamette Ancolaev versus Johnny Walker. 1 to 10, how excited are we for this card?

I'm not excited for the card, but I am excited for fights. We talk about this kind of a lot. It has been a long stretch. We've had a month off at this point in time. I know that we're never going to get back to the days where the UFC did one event every month or whatever. But I always like this stretch of the year just to have, we don't get an off season.

this is the best we got, but it is always nice to be able to come back and be like, okay, ease our way in. I think it would be better to do it this way than like if 297 was this weekend, I don't think I'd be ready, Connor. I think I'd be like, man, I'm a little caught off guard reeling, but get to dip the toes in, ease back into it. And then bam, they hit us with the big one next weekend. You're right with that. You're right, because it's a UFC event. If you're going to sit there for the entire thing, it's an experience.

You know, you kind of got to prepare yourself. I like that we get to get to get in the water, you know, get used to it before we get thrown into the deep end with a pay-per-view event next week. I see over your shoulder. Happy New Year, day nine. How long do we keep it up for? That's going to stay up until the next time I'm doing some video work for the website, at which point we'll put a new message there. But, you know, audio only, I'm not going to be bothered with changing this. I got too many other things going on, Connor.

I love it. 24, it's going to be the year that we dominate. The year that we dominate. Let's go. That's, you know, we don't need to get into the numbers, but last year wasn't so hot. You know, you take it all in bet. You miss.

It's going to be tough for the old bankroll. We're starting to fresh. We're starting to new. We're coming into this year. We're going to make some things happen. Just start the climb. Let's go, baby. Let's go.

So it's funny that you mentioned that because, The climb is what we're starting. And, you know, I've now been doing this for a few years. I have never won on the first event of the year. I'm really hoping to break that streak here. It'd be nice to start out in the green because... No, you can't do it. It's like golfing.

If you part the first hole, you're going to shoot an awful score on the day. You got to get out there. You've got to put a bogey up at number one, and then the rest of the round can go to plan. Do you come out with a birdie? Just light the scorecard on fire. I feel weird, man. I feel weird because, I mean, last year, the first six months were God-off before me.

They were so bad. I mean, I even had an event that I finished down like 11 units, the Kai Kara France versus Amir Al-Bazi event. I mean, add some, the lowest of lows and then just finished 2023 on an absolute tear, finish up to over 26 units on the year, a nice bounce back, like 56 units up in the second half of the year. But now it's right back to zero. Now we reset the clock.

Square one. Yeah, I hope I can bring the, uh, bring the heat into 2024. Gonna try and pick and choose these carefully here. You know, not going to unload the clip on week one, but I do have a few bets.

I have had a few of these for a while. Our friends over at Drafking Sportsbook dropped these lines well in advance. So I have been looking forward to this fight card. But we're not just going to do that. Not just going to do UFC Apex 84. Also going to do our future bets. One, I'm feeling much less optimistic about after a tweet storm today, but we can get into that.

Any more spring cleaning, any more January cleaning before we dive right into this? No, no, I think we can just hop in. I will say that I crunched the numbers. I looked at the tape. And I think this year we're going to be even more irresponsible. You know, I think what killed us last year was we were too responsible at times. Yep. So this year, you know, we're just not going to do any research ever and just see what happens.

No research. I mean, that's the way to do it, honestly. There's nothing worse than just dialing up about 10, 12 hours of research and then had and then losing like eight units. It's just like I just wasted my life on that. It's a terrible feeling. Unfortunately, it's not what we've done at all because we've had so long to prep for this one. It's like, all right. So we'll see.

If I come out hot, we're going to keep the research going. But what we're going to do is we're going to change things up every week that's a loser. We're not going to stick to a regimented, oh, something's not working. Change it up immediately. I like that. Chaos, baby. I like that. Let's do it then.

Let's get into the futures. We'll do that before UFC Apex 804. I'm excited about the futures thing. I think this is fun. I'm much lighter this year. I only got seven, but sometimes I think last year I had like 19. And I just kind of started realizing, A lot of them never even come close.

It doesn't matter what the number is. Shockingly bad. Oh, yeah. I hit two. I hit two. That's it. Almost at three. Almost at a third, but.

Yeah. I mean, in our defense, no one saw like Sean Strickland coming, but yeah, the futures did not work out for me last year. I've applied a scattershot approach this year. I'm throwing a lot of darts and we're going to see what happens, you know?

All right. Let's get started. We'll start in the women's weight class. and start with women's straw weight. Do you have a future there? Sure do. So I just decided to take a shot on every weight class. I've got one in every weight class.

I love it. Just for the sake of content. Just one single one for each one. One single one. I love it. I'm trying to snipe each weight class. A couple of them, if you read, we did a, a Champions Predict article on MMAFide.com website.

If you read that, a lot of theirs overlap for me. But there were one or two instances where I just took a shot at some big numbers. Straw weight, though, I went not quite chalk, but almost chalk. I'm betting on Tatiana Suarez to get the belt at the end of the year. Last I looked, Wiley was still the favorite as the current champion, but... Swarres has what is functioning title eliminator coming up at the early part of this year. I think she does fight for the belt by the end of the year.

Be that against Wiley Zhang or Janjaun-Nan. I like her chances to get it. So I'm betting on a lot of new champs this year, Connor. I love it. I love it. I'm doing the same. I am going with Tatiana Suarez as well. One of my seven plus 200.

I'm with you. I think she beats Lemosh. And then we set her up. You got 10 months to book a title fight at that point, undefeated, very well deserving of it. Whether it is against Jung or Jan, I think she can get a win in either of those. Let's keep it rolling. Women's flyweight. I have nothing here, so the floor is yours.

Nothing here. Yeah, nothing. Maybe a bit surprised, given your support on Tatian Soros, because I'm going, again, not quite chalk, but almost chalk. I've been predicting Aaron Blanchild's going to be the champion this weight class for many years. I think this is the year it finally happens. My one concern about this bet, Alexa Grasso will ostensibly be fighting Valentina Shochenko for a third time. We still don't have a timeline on that. If the UFC does something very foolish and sits on that fight until the Noce event in September,

then this bet gets a little sweaty. But Blanchefield, like Tatianos Rora, she's got a fight coming up that is a de facto title eliminator. And I love her chances against either Grasso or Shevchenko. I don't think the UFC will hold on that title fight. I think we'll get Shevchenko Grasso 3 sometime, you know, in the spring or early summer. And then they'll just run, they'll do something for Noce. They'll be prepared. Maybe Aaron Blanchfield takes the belt at Noche.

But Aaron Blanchfield, she's the best fighter in this weight class. She's getting the title this year. All right. Bokit. Y'all are going to be really upset when my girl, Manon Firo, knocks her off at UFC Atlantic City, which I would be so impressed if she does. So impressed. I would too. I would too.

I do fear Blanchfield a little bit. I imagine Blanchfield will be a pretty big favorite in that one. We keep it rolling women's bantam weight. Your pick here. I was a bit surprised at the odds on this one because I thought that my choice would be the betting favorite. However, the betting favorite is Giuliana Pena. That's not who I'm going with.

I'm taking the, what seems like the smart bat, I'm taking my wayna Silva. There's plus 400. We know she is fighting for the title. That is happening this year. It is booked. I mean, the way this weight class has worked, the way this title has worked, there's a chance MBS gets the belt and never fights again the rest of this year and then just wins the belt over Rocky Pennington and then and then that's just the end of the year. I love the value on her. The previous two,

those are me betting on the best fighter in the way class who I think has a realistic path to the title but the odds aren't great. I really like the odds here for MBS. Yeah, so I see what you're saying. I mean, she's obviously about the fight next week for the title. Though I do think 11 months to go. I think she'll have to defend it at least one time. And I think she will be defending it against Giuliana Payne. Listen, I mean, you get a chance to back one of your own, one of the parlay boys, weekend, week out, making parlias with us.

I'm going to do it. I understand. I mean, I have to do it. She's one of our own, Venezuelan Vixen. I actually got her at plus 400 as well. Just threw a half unit on it. I mean, if Pennington wins, then we're really cooking. but I do think Buena Sava gets it done.

And I think she makes her return this year. Lord hope so, because she hasn't fought in a while. I'll also say I was very, very tempted instead to bet Valentina Shipchanko. The odds are a little, odds are a little bit longer. But I think sort of regardless of what happens with Grosso, there's a very good chance that Chifchenko moves up to 135. She beats Grasso. I just don't know if she wants to fight Aaron Blanchfield and like try and go back to

defending the belt. God bless her she does, but if she beats Grosso, I think there's a real chance. She says, now it's time for me to finally go become a two division champion.

And if she loses the Grasso, then I think she's definitely going up to 135. That's what I was thinking. There's a chance she's like plus 750 too. $7.50. I really liked the odds there, but MBS,

if MBS was lower, if she was, you know, the plus 250 or whatever, I would have taken Grosso for the value. But I think MBS is about to win the belt and give me the bird the handover two in the bush, you know?

Yeah, a lot can happen in those last 11 months, though. I mean, it... A lot of time. It is happening right now. It's happening this very next week. Women's feather weight. Do they even have odds for that? I did not even look for odds of that.

I don't think they do. I would have nailed this one last year, as I predicted that there wouldn't be a women's featherweight division, and I would have crushed that. So I don't think we have them. Sines with the UFC and immediately gets a title shot and wins. They will immediately. make a featherweight division if Kayla Harrison signs with the UFC. All right, let's go over to

the men's then. We'll start men's flyweight, work our way up. What are we got for the 125ers? Perhaps my least favorite of all the future bets here. This one's tough, man. It's a really tough weight class. Pantosia

has been exceeding my expectations for him and he's so low on number like values that that just seems way too risky for me. I backed Manel cop at plus 800. I think he, it's not a title eliminator bout against Nicolao, but it could be.

Like I know Brandon Marino or Miao-Bazi are going to get after it, and then depending on that, the winner of that probably gets a shot at Pantosia. I think Cops really, really close to a title fight. And even though he's already lost to Pantosia once before, I just sort of like his chances to maybe make something happen. Again, one of my least comfortable bets of all of these

future is just decent odds for a guy who I think has a realistic path to get to the belt. Yeah, I don't hate it, man. And he's making a character of himself. He's trying to get himself into the spotlight more and more. And we'll talk about him later on this very podcast as he will be fighting this weekend in that rematch against Mateus Nicola. Let's go to men's bantam weight. This is the only weight class where I actually have two selections here. Tell me. My first one, we're both, we're both Georgia guys. I mean, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we hail from the great state of Georgia. This is also a Georgia guy. This is a Georgia man, but he does not hail from the state. He hails from the country, and that is the machine,

Marab, the Valish, Vili. He's the number one guy. He's about to fight the number two guy. I think at this point, the beating that he put on Piotr Yan, he deserves a title shot, but if he goes out there and beats Henry Suhudo, any way you flip it, I think he's undeniable for a title shot at that point. And with his cardio, his wrestling and how he's looked of late, I feel confident in his ability to win the belt if he gets that shot. I don't hate this choice at all. I did not take it for a couple of reasons.

First is I think that everything you said is just incorrect. I believe Marabdollah really is probably the best band-a-weight-earth, and I think if he gets a title shot there, and I think that if he goes out there and he beats Henry Suhudo, he's undeniable. I think he beat Henry Sehudo. I'm not sold on it, but I think he does. the problem is, despite being undeniable, I think he will be denied.

I'm feeling you were going to say that. That's my biggest issue is that if O'Malley beats Cheeto Vera, which, spoiler alert, I don't think he's going to. I don't think Sean O'Malley would ever fight Marab Dvalesvili. I think he would do just about anything else. I think if O'Malley beats Vera, there's a very good chance the belt does not get defended again this year. and I just it's hard for me to see why anyone would want to fight Marab if you can avoid it and I think Sean has enough juice to avoid it and similarly I think if Cheeto wins then they're just going to run back Cheeto O'Malley immediately and that'll be the end of the year

and that my dear friends as I'll interject my selection here yes I love it I've taken more than Vera plus 1,000 I think he is a terrible stylistic matchup for Sean O'Malley I believe he is going to beat Sean O'Malley. I think they will run that back. Maybe at like MSG, a big event, a big tent post, run, because this will be a big fight, two of the most popular fighters on the roster. They'll give Sean an immediate rematch despite that not being reasonable. And despite Marlon Vera maybe being like the seventh best band, I'm waiting the world,

I kind of still think he's going to end the year with the title. And a plus a thousand, I like taking a flyer on that. Wow. That you laid that out well. I love the number of plus a thousand. I like the reasoning behind it. But this would mean Marlon Chito Vera Bantanweight champion with the defense. Three and O. Again, I, I just, it's, I'd be a crazy world to live in. It would be a crazy world. And like, I, again, I have wouldn't, won't be at all surprised if this one is wrong. But I was, I just, it's, I, basically. I, basically. I, it's, I, basically. Animweight is so difficult because you could convince me that any of like the top 10 dudes can win the belt. It's just who's going to get the opportunity at the time to be the champion by the end of the year? How does that shake out? The number on Marlins great and I can see the path. Yeah, I don't blame you, man. A plus a thousand, I don't mind anyone taking a flyer on that. The second one that I got,

the number has moved, which actually surprised me how much it moved. I took Umar and Ramagamette off at plus 800. He's now like plus three or 350 when there's a small chance that he gets a title shot. I mean, he's currently ranked 12th. I know they did book a fight with him last year with San Hagan that obviously fell through. Hopefully they rebook something like that. It does show that they're trying to move him up in the division. His last name definitely means something.

He's undefeated. I think he's skilled enough to be a champion. But him getting the shot, like you said, is a tricky. proposition. But if things do fall his way, see he goes out there, has a great performance against Corey Sanhagen in the first quarter of the year, then it kind of feels like the sky's the limit for him. This one, I feel like is one of those ones I'm going to get to the end of the year and be like, that one didn't even come close. Yeah, in principle, I don't hate the bet. I was stunned when we said we were going to do this and I looked at the futures and the number

Umar's at because like anyone who follows him in my fighting stuff like I'm I'm as big on umar as there is I think I have him ranked as the number three band and weight in the world I got and that's just that that's just out of deference for some some people that are more accomplished I absolutely think like I would pick him to beat any ban on weight save maybe marab in a fist fight tomorrow but I it seems hard for him to get that title shot but the odds makers disagree at this junction. Which is surprising. Maybe Sean beats Cheeto and then he wants to have his Nirmagamatov moment.

I don't know. Honestly, from O'Malley's standpoint, that would be make, it wouldn't make great sense because it would be tough. But, you know, at least beating the name Nirmagamatov, that does something that he can sell that fight versus Marab, which is a really tough fight that I just don't think is ever going to sell. Yeah, I mean, also, like, think, like, if you're a more casual, fan, and I don't mean that with offense to anyone. But say you are a more laid back fan.

You don't really pay that close of attention to it, but you know who Sean O'Malley is. And then you hear, oh, man, Sean O'Malley's next fight is going to be against this Russian Nurmaga Medov, cousin Umar. It's the Kennedy effect. Oh, yeah. By the way, he's 17 and O and an absolute killer. You think you can't sell that? You can sell that bad boy.

There will also just be plenty of people who don't even recognize that like Habee. is not a bantamweight or retired. They'll just be like, oh, the undefeated Normar Medov, I watched that dude beat the hell out of Conner. He's going to kill Sean. Like, it's, Norma Medov is the Kennedy family of MMA, and so it's always worthwhile to fight them.

Oh, for sure, for sure. I mean, he's got a good following. Most of those dudes from over that way have good followings on social, but I mean, when you're talking Millie's on the social accounts, it don't hurt. The people know. They know that this man is the future.

I, you know, if we're gazing into our crystal balls, my 20-25 future bet, that'll be on Umar for sure. I'm probably going to have a little Umar, a little bone nickel. I mean, I'm going to have some, some fun in 2025. Oh, yeah. All right. Let's keep it rolling to the men's feather weight division. I got nothing here.

This is an interesting one. I feel like there's a couple ways you could go. Your selection. I think there, I spent maybe the most time on this weight class before. ultimately settling where I am. So my future champion's prediction is Ilya. I'm betting against Alexander Volcanovsky because that's what I do. It's my brand.

I got to stick with it. I decided to take my future bet on a man that I hated to do it because of what it means. Mof Saravloy of plus 1,800. He's fighting Arnold Allen. Onond has been my boy for a long time. I waffled so long between. whether I would pick Arnold Allen in this spot or Movsar. Movsars plus 800 more than Arnold Allen is.

Also the favorite. The favorite for next week for the fight. And Arnold Allen has that loss to max. So if Arnold beats Movsar and Ilya beats Volk, Arnold beating Mobsar does not guarantee him a title shot. I think if Mobsar beats Arnold Allen, I think he's just up for the winner of Volk to Perria, assuming it's Volk, if Volk beats DePuria,

I think Mobsar is up next if Mobsar can win. If Tupuri wins, obviously they're doing the rematch immediately. For sure. If Tupriy wins the first one, I think he's going to win the second one. And if he wins the second one, then Mavsar lays in wait. So plus 1,800, if the belt is fought for three times this year, which I think is possible, Mofsar at least has a chance to be fighting for that title at the end of the year, a plus 1,800. Even if I can't win, like even if I wouldn't maybe pick him to beat Tupori,

and maybe I can hedge at the end of the year against this bet and guarantee. team myself a little something. So I don't mind that. I don't mind that. Yeah, because I saw the, he's also undefeated. That's a great point you made with, with Arnold already having the loss to Max Holloway. So he's kind of behind him in line. Yeah, I don't mind that, man. That's a nice little, a little value stat. You know, it won't be surprised if it doesn't hit, but the number is nice for an undefeated prospect that's favored in his, in his first fight of the year that takes place in January against the top contender. Yeah, it's like a top five dude.

This is, there's a window. We'll see, but there's a window for sure. And the division moves with these guys at the top, the division stays moving. Mm-hmm. I think, like, Mofsar just needs to hope Volk wins. Because if Vult beats Duporium, Mavsar's up. Because Volk can't do the lightweight thing.

That's already shot. He's not going to fight Max again. Mavsar is immediately up if he can be on an island. Yeah, that really is a great point by you. That's almost like an emotional head. for you. Like if Volk wins, if Movzar wins, beats Arnold Allen, who is currently the number three featherweight in the world, and then Volk wins as well. I mean, Max Holloway won, yeah, or two, beat him both. Arnold Allen lost to Max and will have lost to Movesar, Elia. He would have beat

Elia. Josh Schema, you can't give him a title right now. Yeah. I mean, Mozart definitely is hoping Volk gets it done. If he doesn't, I think this bet is tough, because then there's even the world where if Ilya beats him, then there's the world that Max gets in a title shot after they do the Volkri match. They do a Volk rematch and then Max is right there. Things get real congested if Dipuria takes the title. But if Volk keeps finning off father time, Movsar, Mobstar is going to have a shot and at plus 1800s, it's a big number.

So if Movzar wins, this bet becomes interesting. And then if Volk wins, this bet becomes very, very interesting. Yeah, it almost feels like he's next. All right, let's move on to 155 men's lightweight. Again, I have nothing on this one. Islammukashiv, minus 300. Is that what we're going with? It's not because it's minus 300.

I didn't look at these odds before the fight was announced. I would have maybe been a little interested in Armand Sarukian just as a long shot to even get a title fight. Now he is the number, he's the second best option of plus 250. I would still pick Islam to win that fight, but, you know, we'll see what happens when Armand fights Charles Olivera. Also, Ben-Wasandini, his, his odds have closed a lot because of the Dustin Porier booking. Yeah, plummeted.

I'm going a way that I don't think the listeners are about to anticipate. I think I've thrown a curve that no one is prepared for here. because I'm betting Alexander Volkovsky a plus 10,000. Let me paint you the picture here. Sure, please. I need the picture painted because I'm having a hard time seeing how this one happens. One, I don't think it's going to happen, right? Well, plus 10,000, big, big number.

And here's the path for it to happen. Volk beats DePyria. Volk beats Evloev, or maybe he doesn't. Maybe he just beats DePyria. And, uh-oh, Islamychev gets a lot of. Islam Makachev gets upset. Who, who, like, whoever is, maybe Justin Gachie does get the Islamakche fight and gets upset. The UFC loves Alexander Volkanovsky.

They have been, they have been giving him things he wants. Yes, he's lost twice at lightweight, but he lost twice to Islam. And one of them was on short notice. I don't think he can ever get a fight with Islam again. But if that belt changes hands at all, I think Volk has an opportunity to sneak in there. Plus 10,000, I wanted to. to get spicy with it. I didn't like any of the other bets. Whatever. Let's see what happens. I love it. That would be in an absolutely insane world. He's got the same odds as Nasrod

Hakbarost. Just to put that in perspective. You know we had the same odds as Sean Strickland. We did this last year would have had the exact same odds. And yet that's the world we live in it. I like thinking outside the box. I like you thinking outside the box. Yeah, I mean, Sarukian, St. Dani like plus 450 plus 250. I don't like any of them. St. Dania plus 450 is tough because it's just like, okay, he beats Porre. Is he even going to get a title shot? I mean, Sarukin's going to get one. Islam never fights, it feels like.

Oh, yeah, and then, by the way. Islam is fighting at most twice this year. At most. Oh, yeah, by the way, you also have to beat Islamakashv to get the belt. Kind of tough at this low of odds for these guys at lightweight. That's kind of why I stayed away. So I like your outside of the box. I think staying away is the correct maneuver here.

I just wanted to have a bet on everyone. And I was like, ah, yolo. Can I also say, please. Maybe the saddest thing, and I'm not even a big supporter of this person, but one of the saddest things in recent memory are wonderful friends at Draft Kings. Do in fact have action. You can bet Tony Ferguson to be lightweight champion. Plus 100,000. Last.

Last. Below such luminaries as Jordan Levitt. Yeah. Gabriel Benitez, who's about to fight Jim Miller. Oh, I'm talking about that fight later. Mark Diahekees. Tony Ferguson. How the mighty have fallen.

Man, man, plus a hundred thousand worth a spru- Go a dollar. See what happens. Worth the Sprinkle. Dollar gets you back a thousand. So that's not bad. Except you're losing a dollar. That's the unfortunate part is you are losing a dollar.

Your odds of using that dollar on the lottery are substantially better. All right. Let's move to Welterweight. I do have a bet on this one. I'm going with who I believe is the best welterweight in the world. And that is Shafkat Rokmanoff. I will be taking him at plus 200. I think he fights one more time in the first four months of this year.

And then he gets a title shot near the end of the year. Easy money. I was, if I was going to be placing bets on more than one people, I would have the bulk of it on Chavkat. I might also be interested in flyers on Ian Garry. and Kumar Usman. If Belal Muhammad takes the belt off Leon Edwards, I think there is very much a world where Usman kind of gets a title fight against Belaw Muhammad

because of his long service to the company, et cetera, et cetera. And I think Ian Gary is one big win away from being right in that title conversation and their odds are much, much longer than Shavkot. But I'm with you. Shavcott is my... I have one bet and it is Shafcott.

RDA plus 8. 80,000. Neil Magne also plus 80,000. It's always interesting to see who they put at the very bottom. Neil Magny. Behind Matt Brown is interesting. Behind Josh Quinlan. Like, behind Tim Means.

Behind Danny Hot Chocolate Roberts. Behind Michael Chandler, lightweight stockler, Michael Chandler. I mean, Neil Magny has a worst chance than Nate Diaz. Nate Diaz plus 25,000. That's a love for old meal. I just want to know if they're getting any action on those at all. If anyone's taking a shot at all. Honestly.

All right, let's keep it rolling to men's middleweight, just the middleweight division. I do also have a bet here. Took them at plus 275. It's just become a yearly fire dump for me, you know, just dump the money in. And that is a Hamzot Shemayev. Maybe I'll be right. Hopefully I'll be right. took him welterweight champ a couple years ago took him welterweight and middleweight last year

and now here we are in 2024 i'm taking him as middleweight is he probably just going to fight once yes is it going to be for a title i hope i think the talent's there you know it's it's become this is now the third annual hamzaa dummy money dump we might as well keep it going i love your consistency uh homzal was my choice for uh champions predict by the end of the year, but at plus 100, even money, I'm not. Dude, he's weird. He fought three times immediately, and then he has been very sporadic in his fighting. Now, the pictures of him being sick coming out.

He gets deeply sick as often as he fights nowadays. It's just tough. I don't, the visa thing makes it very curious about what the UFC even envisions doing with him. I just don't have a lot of confidence. I am extremely confident that Driggis DuPlessy is fighting. for the title. I don't know if he'll win it, but I'm confident he is fighting for the belt in a couple of weeks here in a week here. I think he's got a pretty good shot at Sean Strickland, and this is Mark Jed. I want to be clear. This is full-blown lizard

brain idiot. The confidence Drickus DuPlessy and his team have about beating Sean Strickland has me convinced that they know stuff, that they are just, yeah, it's it's incredible. Oh, yeah, yeah, he's nothing. They're just like, what? whatever, can't wait to get the boat. Yeah, they have the exact same confidence that, like, I have, if I'm playing basketball with my little cousin who is six years old, it's just like, I'm going to do whatever I want. This is nothing.

And it doesn't even come off in a way. He is somehow riding a line where it doesn't come off as, like, overly arrogant and like, oh, they're going to get you. Like, this is, it's just like, no, I believe him. He has sold me on it. I think he is going to win the belt. also he's been my boy for a hot minute so i got to keep rolling with him he is certainly winning the mental battle if nothing else uh and then i think i would pick homs out to beat juggis i just

have no confidence that that fight will happen so give me the guy who i feel like is going to at least hold the belt and we'll see if he can hold it all year long yeah yeah i mean it's cool it would be really cool to see a south african champ and everything and that's the tough part if he wins he's winning it on January 20th. That's a long time to hold that bad boy. I can't hedge though. If he wins it, then he will be the favorite over every next fight. So I can just make an underdog hedge on that person. There is a world. DDP wins and then they book them against Israel out of Sonia and we finally get that fight. I have long been of the opinion that that is going to be the answer at UFC 300. That that's the main event of 300. The reason nothing's been

announced is they are waiting for this. I like this conspiracy theory. I like this. Because it works with either Strickland or DDP because Strickland, we know we'll turn around and fight anybody at the drop of a hat. And it is just a question of

if DDP wins, is he good enough to go? And the UFC will come to him Saturday night with the belt and be like, hey, we want you to headline UFC 300 against Izzy. Is that feasible?

Let's talk numbers. So I think that that's what's going to happen, either for DDP or Strickland. And so this bet could have a lot of action early on in the year. Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see. It's going to be exciting to watch. Let's move to 205 light heavyweight division. I got nothing here.

What say you, my man? Well, you know, you've been doing the Hamz Atchamaya thing. And I've joined you with some of that. But I've also been really committed to this one act of self-immolation year over year. And why change things up, you know, Magum and Ankleyev. I thought about this one too, man. I've done it also. I keep believing that this man is probably the best light heavy way in the world.

Two years ago, I thought I was going to get it in December with that, oh, randomly he finally gets a title fight. Oh, this is finally going to happen. And then it ends in the draw. Obviously, last year it was weird. He's fighting Johnny Walker. We're going to talk about that fight in just a little bit here. I think when he beats Johnny Walker, there's just an absence of other contenders that puts him

at the top of the line. The UFC isn't invested in it, but I just, why not? I'm going for it. Though I do have a spicy long shot that I consider that I think you would like, Connor. Who's that? Your boy, Jelton Almeda. Oh, at light heavy weight. At light heavy weight.

Look, I think they're going to make him fight Tom Aspenol after Jailton gets this next W. He's going to lose to Tom Asperol, and after that, the conversation is going to be like, maybe it's time. Maybe it's time to make the drop down to 205. You know, I wouldn't say it's likely, but it's also plus 5,000. So even the odds makers aren't saying it's likely. It is certainly plus 5,000. I don't mind that little Khalil Roundtree plus 3,500.

Don't know if he's going to get the shot, but he has been on a tear. I stared at that for a long time because he's eighth in the rankings. And if the UFC just pulled the trigger to do the pariah fight, which they should because it's fun, then you're getting a big number on a guy who's about to challenge for the title. I mean, I'd feel much more comfortable with a Khalil roundtree plus 3,500 than an Osamat Merzikanov plus 1,200. What even is that? Oh, yeah.

Yeah. Wow. Why is that a thing? A guy that's like super fun and number eight in the rankings being almost triple the price as a guy who's 13th that like no one knows. Also, Osamot Mirzikanov, like, you know, respect to him. Janbovich is a former champion. Those people always have like quick pass back to title shots and he's plus 7,500.

Yeah. That seems insane to me. Damn, no love for Jan, man. No love for Yon. John is almost as bad as Volcanoes the mayor. Yeah, I mean, it's tough. Tough days out there for the former champ. All right, let's get to the last and final weight class, which is heavy weight.

Yeah, so I took John Jones plus 450. this has also been a yearly tradition for me. It hit last year, which was great. They've given me plus 450 every single year. And this year I was like, oh, yeah, let's do it again. Plus 450. He's got the belt. He might just fight Stepe and then just sit.

I mean, who knows when he's going to be back? He's just got another surgery. He's clearly not willing to vacate. And yeah, we fight in August, maybe September or something. And yeah, and then we just sit and we coast the end of the year. and we cash, and it was essentially a John Jones against Steve M. Eumoch's plus $4.50 ticket. A lot of tweets happened today. Today is Tuesday, January 9th. A lot of tweets happened today from all Johnny Bones Jones. Yeah, I mean, it seems like he's hinting at retirement. I could see

everything that I said going to plan and then he wins and then he retires and then it's all over for me. So that was the primary concern for me. I think he is almost certainly not going to fight a and after he does fight Stepe. I, though, bet him because... Wow. I think that there's a really good chance that the Stepe fight just takes a long time to happen because the UFC doesn't seem to care at all

about moving the Heavyweight Division along. They have an interim champion that they're almost certainly going to make defend his interim title against somebody. John and Stepe will fight when they fight. Maybe it's in the summer. maybe they honestly just sit on it until Madison Square Garden next year. That wouldn't stun me if they sat on it until MSG in November.

Or I don't think when John beats Depe, he's retiring. I think he's just not going to fight. And so even though he will de facto not be the champion, I think there's a world where he beats Stepe and then still is the champion in name while Tom Aspinall is just incredibly angry about the situation he's in. Honestly, yes. That's what we can do. We can look from that standpoint that Jones is going to be petty to Aspernel.

And he's not going to retire. Like he's not going to do like the gloves off octagon moment immediately retire. Like he's just going to sit and then maybe have a press conference and retire at a later date. I like this. I like this plan we've drawn up here. It's a it's that I also. I lied at the top of this. I said I bet one.

I did take one very small flyer on this one for the same reason. I've been shooting this shot for a long time, and I'm going to keep shooting it until it's no longer a viable shot. Curtis Blades. Curtis Blades. I had a feeling that one was going. I'm just going to keep back at him because he can wrestle people. And if he ever learns to only wrestle people and not kickbox for even a moment,

maybe he'll get his day. but I knew when I put that in that I was lighting $1 on fire, but I had to do it. Well, he's going to get his shot at grappling and wrestling against Jelton Almeida in just a few months. He is, and then Jailton Almeida goes down to light heavyweight and cashes that one. There it is.

And Curtis Blades gets his rematch with Tom. I like this. Love this. Love the map here. He wins the interim championship. And then I've got it both sides. Either John is champion and I win or John retires and Curtis is promoted to champion. Brilliant. Brilliant.

Got you coming and going, boys. A stroke of genius. You really, you really chocked that one up beautifully. So that is the futures. I have got John Jones plus 450 at heavyweight, Hamza Achimai of plus 275 at middleweight, Shavkatarachmanov plus 200 at welterweight, Marabavdavaleh, plus 375, bantam weight,

Umarna Magamettev plus 800. Juliana Pena, women's bantamateau plus 400, Tatiana Suarez plus 200 in straw weight. John Jones plus 450, also $1,000 on Mergers Blades at plus 2,000 for the sake of it. Uncleyev, 450, DDP, plus 500, Shavkat 200, Volcanovsky, your lightweight champion, plus 10,000 smackaroos. My Officer of Loya, plus 1,800, Cheeto Vera, plus 1,000, Mano Kopp, plus 800, MBS, Mbiz, my Boin, is over the plus 400, Aaron Blas.

Nashville plus 2, 10, and Tatiana Suarez plus 140. Unwrap holiday magic at Holt Renfrew with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to Lux Beauty and Fragrant Sets, our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holtz holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com. With these futures, you are literally trying to predict the future. Like you got to play in politics, injuries, decision making. like it's just such like a luck of the draw type deal yeah it's insane it's not like you're betting like

the NFL to win the Super Bowl like they're gonna play the games they're gonna have their chances it's a team sport this is just like there's so many factors that can play into it yeah it's just it's just absolutely you never know you never have any clue i mean again it's gonna be the de facto answer forever but like sean strickland became middleweight champion in the middle of the year. It didn't even like take until December. He did it in the summer. Yeah. You know, it's just nuts. It's crazy, man. It's crazy. All right. Let's dive in UFC Apex 84 Uncaliyev versus Johnny Walker, the rematch from UFC 294 just a couple months ago. And that's where we'll start. The main event, 205, five rounds. Magamette Ancalaev taken on the aforementioned Johnny

Walker right now. Magamette Ancalaev sits at minus 535 Walker coming back at plus 400. How do you feel about this one? I don't love the odds on this one. I'll be honest with him. Big odds. Big odds. Big odds. So Anka Lave was a favorite the first time around, even bigger favorite now.

And I understand it. I mean, he was winning the fight heading in. But that was also the fight had just begun realistically. Yeah, it's some good moments, certainly. But I think Johnny Walker showed some things there. Like Johnny Walker was enormous. He is so much bigger than Magerman Ankolaev, which is a huge thing. Like, Ock being this big of a favorite, it gives me some concern legitimately.

So I do not have a bet on that specifically. But I did decide to take a flyer, a very stupid flyer. Why not? But on Magerman and Kaliav by decision, plus 750. Okay. You know, it's not smart. Let's just call it what it is. Johnny Walker, when he loses, it's largely by getting knocked out.

This is five rounds. It's a long time. But Markman Aguilive has been a little bit of a decision merchant in his career. I think Johnny Walker is a little bit better than he has showed in his last few losses and looked okay in that first fight. So I just wanted to have a bet on the first main event of the year. and I really didn't want to bet Ankalive at minus $5.50 or whatever. Yeah, and I mean, we've seen Johnny Walker get into some weird fights that end up going to a decision as well.

And Lamaana Kalayaev is the weirdest fighter currently active in the sport. Oddness follows him. And what are we looking at minus like a thousand fight-ins inside the distance? Yeah, I mean, it's just like that's a ticket that you could end up sweating. It could be really easy or you could end up wanting to pull your hair out. Yeah, for me, I'm kind of with you like the odds. They're just sort of big. I'm just going to stay away from this one.

I think Magamette-Anclyev wins. But yeah, I mean, last one was, you talk about weird. Last one was weird. I mean, technically should have been a DQ loss for Magam. Absolutely should have been a DQ loss. Like, absolutely. So, yeah, I don't know. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy it.

Just think about his run, right? Like the Johnny Walker weirdness, the Janbovlovich draw, like split draw in the title fight that became a title fight like a week beforehand. and that Dana then got really mad at him about when it's not his fault that he had a draw, but Dana was just like, F this dude, he's terrible. Yes. And he probably should have won the fight. And then prior to that, you've got the weirdness with Aung Kutalaba back, you know, a couple of years back.

He has just had a lot of strangeness sort of circle around him. And so I've been saying he's the best life everywhere in the world for four or five years at this point. but it's just been really weird. It wouldn't shock me at all if something super odd happened here as well. Yeah, I mean, even that Anthony Smith fight, Anthony Smith ended up being hurt and it was just sort of over

and like some people didn't really give him credit for it. Yeah, man, it has been two years, almost, a solid year and a half since he has had a fight that ended with a winner in it. Yeah, just it's super odd. Hopefully you'll get over the hump because, you know, he's my future champion. need that from him but uh yeah i won't be shocked if some some more insanity occurs here

with johnny walker too because he's just kind of because it's johnny walker too yeah man all right let's go to the co-main event matthias nicolow taking on manel cop right now minel cop the favorite sitting at minus 265 nickelau coming back at plus 215 this is a rematch that matthes nicolau won the first one by split decision very close fight um but since then minel cop four and o two finishes, has knocked down each of his opponents that he's faced. He's looked great. I mean, it feels like he's more aggressive, feels like he's using those power shots better. I think that he gets his get back in this one. Oh, you bet in you bet in the fellow? Yeah, so I actually bet him on on draft kings at minus 180, but I would still use him as a parley piece. I think he gets it done here.

I mean, you talked about it in the future's note. I think he gets it done here and then he's in real contention for a title. I, again, my future champion. I don't have a straight bet on him because what I decided to do instead for this one, Connor, I'd like to pitch you something. I'd like to pitch away, baby. Proposition. You know, last year was a tough year for me for a number of reasons. But it was more a tough year for us as a family because the brainchild of this podcast.

It ran away. You know, it ran away from home. It went out in the world. I know where we're going to go. go see what was happening. What if Flyweight Under's is back? What if they decided, you know, we've tasted, we've tasted the great outdoors, we've had our Rum Springer, now it's 2024, clean slate, new, new territory, let's go.

And so I decide let's test those waters because I think the most likely outcome here is a finish. I know they had a very contentious split decision fight last time, but like you said, I think cop has really dialed it up. I think we have seen Netsa's Nikolao, I mean, brand new Ravani, obviously enormous.

Like, we've seen that that can happen. Instead of betting cap, you know, by K.O. or inside the distance and getting better odds, I just took the under two and a half

because it's plus, plus 145. Sure is. And that also gives me a little bit of equity in case Nicolao, you know, maybe it sneaks to the back

or something like that. But I want to test out flyweight unders. I want to see, I'm going to see what they're doing in 2024. So if you're going to do that, can I assume that you're also committing to Joshua Van versus Felipe Boone's?

You sure can't make that assumption. Wow. Let's go. Two bets. Right there. Right there for old jet. All right. I mean,

I will be watching. I actually have a bet. Because Joshua Van has never gotten a finish or been finished in the UFC. Again, that's because flywood unders and they abandoned us for a little bit. I think they might be back. if they go 2-0 they're back are there any on 2997

I did not look ahead it didn't really feel like a Canadian thing you know Flywood unders doesn't really feel like something that can't Canadians would do I lied Malcolm Gordon Jimmy Flick that's got that's got some potential on it

if they go 210 this week that under is a must take that under is a must take I'll come out and just say it right now alright let's go come on let's stick with the main card Jim Miller returns to the Octagon. Just two and a half months, three months. Yeah, three months almost to the day.

It will be to the day for UFC 300. Praying he stays healthy enough to be able to get on that card. Takes on Mowgli Benitez. And right now, Jim Miller, your favorite. My favorite too. Minus 135. Mowgli coming back at plus one, at 14.

Your thoughts here on the 40-year-old taking on the 35-year-old. I mean, it's pretty simple. I want to create the world that I want to live in. I want to live in a world of that. Yeah, I want to live in a world of good times and strong vibes. Tell me. I think only an anarchist would be back in Gabriel Benitez here. Obviously, no one wants that.

What we want is Jim Miller to come out, get a big quick win, and then be ready for 300 and I think that's exactly what's going to happen. I took Jim Miller at minus 1.15. Yes, let's go. I'm also on Jim Miller. Let's go. I actually think he's just the better fighter as well. I mean, I would also agree with that, but it's hard to ever feel a ton of confidence in a 40-year-old man. Say, a mogul is no spring chicken over here, man. It does help. The Mowgli is also getting up there in years. I also think Jim Miller's durability is going to come into play here as well. I think he can finish Mowgli like you said. I mean, I think his last

eight wins or something are by finish. Jim, Jim is a, for a guy who was always a fun fighter, Jim Miller was never like the biggest action fighter or whatever. Like they're, you know, he would just be kind of a positional grappler for

a big stretch of his career. He just said, F it down the stretch. And he's just, he's having a real Chris Lytle like end of his career, which is like, let's just do things. It's awesome. I love it. I love it. I'm looking forward to this one and I'm with you. I'm hoping he gets a nice, easy, clean finish and then we can book this man for UFC 300. He's been talking about it for far too long. Let's keep it rolling. Ricky Simone taking on Mario

Batista in the men's bandamweight division right now. Ricky minus 180, Batista plus 150. Yeah, man, I've really enjoyed watching Mario Batista of late, but this does kind of feel like a little bit of a step back, a little bit of a step up, Ricky taking the step back, Batista taking the step up. I mean, Ricky's coming off main event against Song and Dong, fought Jack Shore before that. Batista, you know, Guido Canetti, Jay Perrin, DeMont Blackshire on very short notice, who, you know, did he win that fight? Did he not win that fight? I don't know. I feel as if this is a step back for Ricky Simone. I think Blackshare had a lot of success

in that first round with the grappling against Mario Batista. I think Ricky Simone can recreate the same. Just endless pressure, endless wrestling, got the cardio, just a big old bully of a man, and I think he gets back in the wind column. Yeah, I agree.

I don't have any bets on this one. I just didn't love the odds because Batista has, like you said, Batista has looked pretty good and it's come against lesser competition, but I really didn't like how Ricky looked against Song of Dong. Now, Grant, Song Yidong, a terrific fighter. Terrific.

And a much, like, much is a much better fighter, but he looked a little bit slower than he hadn't several of his recent fights. Like maybe he just had an off night, but I just didn't like the odd. So, uh, my first pass of the year. I love it. Let's go to the last fight on the main card. Phil Haas taken on Bruno, the Hulk, Ferreira. right now, Bruno, minus 130,

Haas, plus 110. Should be a banger. It should be fun, man. I mean, Bruno Ferreira has never had a fight last longer than six minutes and eight seconds. And, I mean, Phil Haas Chin is Phil Haas Chen. He's very skilled, but he can't seem to stay in the fight.

All five of his losses come by finish. Catoed in the first round in his last three losses. does he go to the wrestling here? Like, I mean, he's going to have a size advantage. Like, I know he's got the wrestling and, like, do you really want to stand and trade with a guy nicknamed the Hulk who has won his last four fights by way of first round knockout? I don't have a bet here, but I really think this is going to be a fun fight.

This fight is going to be very fun. I think Phil Haas should go to his wrestling. Burnoff had not the best defensive wrestler. Got fast hands, hits real hard. It's real hard. That's just not who Phil Hawes is. You know, he's, Phil Hawes is going to chuck them. That's just what he does, man.

Like these two dudes, they get in there, they throw hands. 19 of 28 fights between them have ended in the very first round. That's a lot of fights between all of them that just get done in five minutes or less. So what I did, one of my resolutions this year, Connor, my gambling resolution. Yeah. for 2024 was uh i feel like i'd gotten away from kind of mid mid priced favorites like once you got over minus 200 i would just start being less interested in placing the wager like uh no like i'll i'll twist some things try and find something better uh probably to my detriment as opposed

just being like hey minus 200 totally fine and on that note minus 225 for under one and a half rounds here You know, it's not going to pay me a king's ransom, but I think it is going to pay me. I am, I noted that, and I'm very much looking to potentially parlay the under two and a half. It all depends on the price. We don't have those prices yet. But there are a couple fights on this one that I like violence, and there's a couple that I like the old Burke special over one and a half. So I will likely be cooking up a little prop parlay later in the week once we get those lines. Let's go to the prelims.

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Another aging vet, Andre Arlofsky takes on Waldo Cortez-A-Costa right now. Biggest favorite on the entire card is Waldo Cortez-A-Costa minus 650. Arlovsky plus... Not the biggest favorite. Second biggest favorite. Oh, yeah, I forgot. Sorry, I forgot about the much anticipated Gene Silva-Western-Wilson-Wilson bout that takes place earlier.

My mistake there. Second biggest favorite on the card, Waldo Cortez-A-Costa. And, yeah, at first glance, I was like, Arlovsky. he has a giant dog like is that worth a shot this face you're giving me makes me think you're doing it no I I really considered it

like I had it I had it punched in wow I had the mouse over the smith police wager yeah uh no it's uh you just thought for a long time think he's shot

think he shot man he just got knocked out by don't tell maze uh And like, this is a tough one. Dude, and that go, go look back at that four-fight win streak he was on in 2021, 2021, uh, because it was kind of for gasey looking back. Oh, it was very forgyzy. It was the four horsemen of the heavyweight division.

Jake Collier, Chase Sherman, Jared Vandera and Carlos Felipe, two split decisions in there, by the way. But here's what you're forgetting. Uh, WCA is, is trash. He's not great, dude. He's not great. I'm not playing. I can tell you, I ain't playing him in my. Minus 700.

Minus 700. When I looked at it, I was like, I have to bet Andre. One, I've been a big Andre guy for a lot of years, even during the Spugazi run, just backing him. WCA is just not very good. Like, this is absolutely a fight that Andrei Alowski can just kind of clinch and stall his way to an ugly decision went over. But then I thought to myself, it's the first event of the year. Do I really want to be staring down that bet? If you just get starched, yeah

Like if you just get starched too That would be unfortunate It'd be really unfortunate because I did Oh you did it I didn't bet Andre But if we were If I'm bringing back Flywood unders

I'm sure no I'm bringing back Heavyweight Overs Particularly with these two gentlemen Androlovsky is the godfather of heavyweight overs And Waldo Cortez Osta Was the poster child of it until his most recent fight.

And again, I won't be stunned because Andre is 45, like anything can happen. But it's over one and a half, Connor. It's not even over two and a half. That's all you got to do. Over one and a half, bringing it back. He made it to the over one and a half in the Dantel May's fight. I mean, if you look at it, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven of his last nine have gone over the one and a half.

He's the patron saint of heavyweight. overs and WCA is bad and also a very prominent heavyweight over merchant. I had to take it. Actually, that was honestly why I didn't bet Arlowski because I already knew I was betting this and I really didn't want to have two bets down on this one fight. Arlofsky 15 of his last 18 going over the one and a half. Yeah, I mean, Waldo Cortez-A Costa, if you just like, if you get beyond like the BS start to his career, like all the boxing and everything. I mean, decision, decision, third round, decision, decision, decision, decision. I made a lot of money betting on him and overs in the UFC.

I don't hate this. I might actually jump on board with you here. Mine is, it's one and a half, too, which is really put it over. If this was two and a half, there's no way I'm touching it. I probably would have bet it just for the, just to do it, but I wouldn't feel good about it. One and a half, it's, it's going to be you feel alive. It's going to make me feel alive. I might have to join you.

I might have to join you there. All right. Let's keep it rolling. Matthew Simmelzberger taking on Preston Parsons. Very closely line fight right now. You can have Jedi. Semi the Jedi. Semi the Jedi.

Semi the Jedi. Minus 130. Parsons plus 110. Strike a versus grappler. I can't trust. I can't trust Semmelsberger anymore. I've been to the world so many times with them. despite having 10 knockdowns in nine UFC fights, he only has two KOs.

And it kind of feels like when he doesn't get those KOs, he ends up losing the fight. Because Lord have mercy, did he put Jeremiah Wells on his ass multiple times and then get grappled for four minutes in essentially every round? And I wouldn't be shocked if that happens here with Preston Parsons. I mean, just like, avoid the big shot or take the big shot and then just take Semmelsberger down. Because I feel like Semmelsberger either ices him and he actually puts him out or Preston Parsons gets the grappling going and he just kind of dominates that way. I shouldn't have bet this fight. Oh, tell me where you went. Betting on or against Simmelsberger has just been nothing helpful.

It's no point. I've never succeeded in finding. Was Simmons murder the Alex Marono Great White Week? Oh my gosh. He was that. Then I backed fucking what's, gave me,

I can't think of his name. Oh, Jake Matthews. Jake Matthews. That was when Jake Matthews was, I really for a minute, thought that he was the reincarnated son of Muhammad Ali. I was like,

this is the greatest boxer I've ever seen in my life. Jake Matthew. He just tuned up, Andre Fialho. Obviously, it's, it's all come together. He's still only 27 and Symbolsburger just sort of donkey.

Oh my gosh. There was a moment in time, Jake Matthews on the beautiful day of June 11th, 2022, where I thought he might be the greatest fighter to ever live. To ever live. Ever live. And that led me to bet him minus 300 against Simmel's burger.

And he just looked like a fucking mule out there and lost for us. And then that fished me because I was like, well, Simmel's burger just. kind of host him. So now a minute and then Sybilzberger loses against Jim. I can't find the range. I should quit betting with this man is involved in a fight.

And yet, and yet, I think Preston Parsons is sucks. I just don't think he's good at fighting. Oh my gosh. We're back. We're back. I don't think he's good at fighting. He's probably going to get knocked down three times in the first round. Simmel's burger is not going to finish him.

And then he's just going to take him down and win a grimy. ugly 29, 28 split decision. You probably will, dude. And I know it's happening. I'm looking at the stats right now from the Jeremiah Wells fight. Matthew Simulzberger, round one. Knock down. Control time for Jeremiah Wells, three minutes and 31 seconds.

Round two, Matthew Simulberger. Knock down. Jeremiah Wells, three minutes and nine seconds of control time. Round three, the deciding round, according to the judges, at least one of them. Matthew Simmelzberger, no knockdowns, Jeremiah Wells, four and a half minutes of control time. Yeah, I know how this bet's going to lose. I can see it in my mind's eye.

Of Simulberger is going to have his opportunities. I'm going to be pumped, and then he's not going to do it, and he's just going to be sat on, and I'm going to watch my money burn up because he can't perform a stand up against the fence, and he's going to get tired as the fight goes on. But I just don't like,

I don't think Parsons is good and I'm betting against him at pretty good odds. Semmelsberger has knocked down three of his opponents and went on to lose the fight. I mean, I wish there was a way to look through this, like, come through the stats. That has to be, there can't be many other people with that sort of a numbers. Dude, he has seven knockdowns in his last four fights. He's one in three. And he's one in three. That is an insane, insane stat. Like, wow. Means he's due. He's due for a dub. He's due. He's due for a dub. And in that seven knockdowns, zero knockouts. Zero knockouts. That's crazy. That is crazy. All right, let's keep it rolling. Men's Bantamweight. Marcus McGee,

taking on Gaston Bolanos. Marcus McGee, how times have changed. Hit a big year. Big year. Big, yeah. Yeah, big favorite now. Minus 258. Bolanos coming back at plus 2.10. I got no action here. Balanos is a decent striker, but feel like the grappling deficiency will cause him to lose this fight. In their 19 combined fights, they've gone to two decisions. These two dudes are just going to come in and get after it.

I'm taking the under two and a half. It's minus 215. But these two dudes are, I mean, McGee's 20-23 was just him he fought three times three knockout like he's just getting after it uh,

Bolanos is going to do the same. I do not think we're going to the judge's scorecard so I took the under two and a half. All right. So I'm cooking this up now. Uh, if I can get it playable, Halls for Era under two and a half, uh,

my little Miguel, Palais. Yeah, little McGee Bolanos fight doesn't go to a decision. Yeah, I'm liking where we're at here. Uh, I like that play from you. I like these over under Jed plays. Let's keep it rolling.

Staying in the men. New Year, baby. I love it. So got the sign up. Happy New Year. January 9th. We'll keep it up all month, baby. It's still a new year.

It is technically a new year. That is true. Men's Banthamweight Division, Farid, Basharat, taking on Taylor, Lappalus. Right now, Bashrod,

ballooning up as the favorite. Minus 278. Lopolis coming back at plus 225. only a matter of time. Do we think a Bosharat brother gets their first loss this year? I do, and I think it's going to be on Saturday night. Wow. Wow, okay.

I'm back in Taylor Lopoulos. I love the price plus 250. I went back and watched a bunch of tape on this one because I really like Free Boshraat. I think he's a really, really good fighter. And when you watch him compete, you think, this dude understands his fighting. The Cledson Rodriguez is like,

Rodriguez is so much more athletic and explosive than him. And he, he's making all the right decisions at all the points in time. But I do think at some point, uh, you have to be, you, you have to have a level of athleticism that,

to, to clear a base bar and I'm not sure he has it. Uh, and so against a guy who is all chaos like Clemson Rodriguez, I think that can work, but Taylor Lapilus on a terrific run right now. Um, and maybe I'm also,

straight up, maybe I'm being swayed by the UFC Paris and how into that fight that crowd was behind him. But he's on an incredible run right now. He has showcased really good takedown defense, super fast hands, like agile, athletic, quick with power. I think if Basharat can't score takedowns, I think he is going to be in trouble. And I am really not sure he's going to be able

to score those takedowns against a really, really improved Taylor Lapilus. And so at this price, I really like the bet. I like your breakdown of this. I like your breakdown of this. I actually took Boshra when I took cop. I took him at minus 198, and I'm actually very surprised at how big this line is moving. When I took it, I was like...

That feels more appropriate to the line to me. When I took it, I was like, yeah, I would imagine he's going to close around like minus 225. And I woke up this morning. He was minus 300. It's now coming back. I think people are thinking on your way, like Lappolis.

He is 19 and 3. This is his second stent in the UFC as well. He's four and one in the promotion. But yeah, I am high on the Boschrod brothers, but I am worried that I'm falling into the trap of the Bonfim brothers that we saw last year. Both of them catching an L as massive favorites last year. I also think Javid is the better brother. That's the question.

Who knows? So in my mind, it's a little bit like the Pettus brothers, where I think Sergio Pettis is actually like a better fighter than Anthony Pettus is, but he just has more limitations that Anthony didn't, which allowed Anthony to reach greater highs than Sergio did. But like as a all-around well-built fighter, I think Sergio's game is more well-rounded. I appreciate it.

I really like Fareed's game. I think he's very analytical in his approach, but I just don't think it works as well as Javid does. I think Javid is a better athlete, has more power, things that will serve him better as he continues to kind of move up in the sport. And I'm really curious to see how he navigates that as he gets into deeper waters now. Yeah, I mean, I'm with you. If he can't get the takedowns, then yeah, he is probably going to be in trouble and we'll likely find that out fairly quickly. I will say in that in that Lockrain fight,

he was able to rack up a decent amount of control time and went around off Elapalus. I rate Farid higher than that. But at the odds that you took him, I don't mind that dog shot on Lapagos. He's a really solid fighter. This fight's awesome. This fight is... I agree. It's a really, really fun fight. I'm very excited about it.

And the next two fights. I was going to say, let's go to another awesome fight. In the featherweight division, Weston Wilson's taking on Gene Silva. And right now, Big Gene coming in, minus 900. Weston Wilson coming in... He is the biggest favorite on the card. You are correct. He is the biggest favorite on the card as a debutante, minus 900.

and the fight does not go to a decision currently lined at minus 1600. I think Vegas thinks that Gene Silva is probably going to get a finish here. Sort of unplayable for me. Maybe if we get that weird thing where it's like minus 1,600, fight doesn't go to decision. Minus 650 under two and a half, something weird like that. I could throw it in a parlay, but, yeah, I mean, Weston Wilson isn't great. I mean, he's been finished six times.

five of them in the first round. No, he's not great. Is Gene Silva a world beater? I'm not sure, but I think he probably is going to win this fight. So, look, if you have an opportunity to bet minus 900 on a debutante, you just got to take it.

There's no more Bellator. This is where we got to get him in. Gene Silva was on my, in my prospects to watch list coming off the most recent series of the contender series, season of the Contender series. he was one of the

broke them down in the categories he was in the big paws and the puppy as kind of the best guys coming off that show a little old for prospect he's 27th he's a little bit older but he is basically featherweight Michelle Paheta

which is awesome because when Michelle I was super pumped Michelle Paheta came into the UFC and he has been quite quite good I think Gene Silva will have some setbacks at some point with the way his game is constructed, but they ain't coming against Weston Wilson.

So since one of my boys, I parlayed him up with another gentleman we'll talk about in just a moment. All right. Let's go to the next fight. Last, nope, not the last one. We still got big Tom train giant, the big man himself, Tom Nolan,

every inch of 6-3 at the lightweight division. We need the Tom Nolan Jalen, matchup at some point. But this weekend, he will be fighting Nicholas Mota. And right now he is a sizable favorite minus 330 Moda coming back at plus 270. Your thoughts on this fight? Tom Nolan is the other gentleman on Paul Aynne with in that same piece on the contender series. Tom Nolan was my number one prospect off of the most recent season of the contender series. You know, there's an old adage in sports, but primarily in basketball, that I think is appropriate here. And she can't teach size.

Can't teach you. He's 6-3, and that's a great building block for being successful. Also, when you look at the way he fights, he is raw. I have no mistake about it. He's got some work to do despite having a pretty good Emmy career. He still has things to work on. but he has predatory offense, size and intangibles are off the charts here. And I think that's why he's getting a fight like Nicholas Moda.

I mean, Gene Silva is getting Weston Wilson. That's closer to a layup than it is to something hard. Nicholas Moda has been around the block, but one of the things Nicholas Moda is not going to attack the ground game, they're just going to be getting after it on the feet. And Big Train, he's totinghammers, baby. It's he is I comped him to Jalen Turner meets Dan Hooker Like that's kind of the the mold he can be in

I'm super high on him And so I parleyed him up with the other contender series boy from from our I love it a little contender series parley A little contender series parley the two of them pays out minus 220 I was just about to ask What does that pay out at? It's not great because minus 900 is one of the legs Not gonna help you much

Minus 220 is acceptable. I mean, he's going to look so much bigger than Moda. And let's not forget, Mota went through a full fight just like less than two months ago. And I mean, he has looked horrible of late, dude. Catoed by Jim Miller. Yes, he won against Van Camp. Don't really rate that that well.

Catoed bad against Manuel Torres. Catoed bad. And should have caught that L against Trey Ogden. He is almost certainly going to get Cato bad by Tom Nolan here. I mean, if we want to do some, I mean, Mota's last four losses have come by way. K.O. No one's last four wins have come by way of K.O. I say all that to say, I am on the under one and a half. I think that's a terrific under to be on. All right. Let's do it. Last fight of the card.

I mean, to give you guys the futures, a little new year's welcome into 2024. We're doing it an hour 15. You're fucking welcome, okay? Fly weights, Felipe Buns, taking on Joshua Van. right now van continues to swell as a favorite minus 238 Boone's coming back at plus 1.95. I actually have a story.

I have seen Felipe Boone's fight in person. LFA 124, Phoenix, Arizona. Very random. Sorry, that's the Hussier-Formiga fight, eh? That's actually incredibly impressive

that you knew that. I only knew it because I'm looking at it right now. Oh, okay. That was that fight? He got choked out. by Formiga. It was in an auditorium concert hall in Phoenix, Arizona. It was incredibly random.

I was there for the waste management tournament. We didn't have anything to do on Friday night. We were like, MMA, let's go, let's do it. I actually, on some offshore books, I was able to get some bet down, and I had Formiga that night. It was fun. It was really dumb, but I enjoyed it very much. So seeing him in the UFC is triply.

I'm not that impressed with him. He is 34. making his debut. And on the flip side, I think Van has looked good in his first couple of UFC fights. Mostly, I mean, if anything, just like the sheer volume

this guy puts out, 9.2 significant strikes landed per minute. One of the highest I've ever seen. I think the boxing's good. I think he gets his hand-race there. I definitely agree. The only reason I don't have Van as a bet or in a parlay,

which I'd consider it is once I realize that we're bringing flywood under's back. I didn't want double exposure on this one. Double exposure is not. But I absolutely super high on Josh fan. I think he has looked very good. The only critique, you know, you can make is he helped, he helped murder Flywood Under's last year, but you can bring him back right now. You know, he'd start help dig, dig him right back out of the grave that he put him in. Bring him on back, baby. Bring him on back. I just want to give an update here. we must have an internal wire tap. Someone must be listening to this.

The Andre Arlovsky Waldo Cortez-A-Costa over one and a half minus-136 has now shifted minus 140. So we're just out moving lines. I mean, no big deal. No big deal. You know, the people have figured it out. They, ah, heavyweight overs are back. It's just what we do. It is just what we do. Vegas got the internal tap on us. And that is episode one of No Bet's Bard in 2020. 24 UFC Apex 84, all of our future bets. We've recapped it all. And that's about that.

Happy that the fights are back, baby. They're back. We're back. It's going to be a good year. We're going to have a great year. 50 episodes coming in your earhole, basically. So walk a lot, kids. Can't wait.

Can't wait to do it. The grind of the UFC is back. And I couldn't be happier about it. No bell at this year. No bell ator this year. And 4 o'clock kickoff this week. Love it. Throw it on the side TV while you're watching NFL as it gets the main card. Then you might make the switch over. You know, you got to do Peacock on Saturday night.

It's going to be fun. It's going to be great. It really feels like sports are back. Premier League's back this weekend. NFL playoffs. UFC is back this weekend. Like we're really, we're home. Masters commercials are back. Started seeing those rolling. I love when the Masters commercials. That's when you know things are happening. Special time of year. All right. That'll do it for us. I'm like any other. A tradition unlike any other as well is no bets barred on a UFC fight week. And that's exactly what we gave you. We'll be back next week.

UFC 297, T.DOT, the 6, Toronto, Canada. Sean Strickland v. Driekis Duplessi. We will see you then. We will break it all down. Back next week. Love you all. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.