MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Are Arman Tsarukyan And Dan Hooker Fighting For A Title Shot At UFC Qatar?

Episode Date: November 19, 2025

The UFC is headed to Qatar. This Saturday, UFC Qatra goes down at Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Al Rayyan, Qatar, headlined by a pivotal lightweight matchup between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by the Action Network's Billy Ward to take a look at all things UFC Qatar. Topics discussed include Hooker's chances at pulling off the major upset over Tsarukyan, whether Belal Muhammad should be written off against Ian Machado Garry, the weirdness of Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai, why Kyoji Horiguchi is getting disrespected in his UFC return, the next steps of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 143 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Billy Ward: @PsychoWard586 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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what is up y'all we are back with another edition of no bets barred my name is jed mishu and this week we are talking ufc qatar cutter i am not 100% sure on how it is actually pronounced but what i am sure about is uh hey this actually isn't a bad card we love that we love when the cards aren't bad because lately they've been pretty poor except for last weekend obviously ufc 3 322 and we'll chat about that in just a minute but first let me introduce my co-host this week you know him i don't know from this program from the action network perhaps from the the cage itself if you are a fan of midwestern fighters i'm speaking of course of billy ward billy how you doing buddy pretty good as you mentioned his great card last week

bet almost every fight and came out zero point one units ahead so real invested a lot of hours to spend my wheels but i had a good time doing it until the main and co-main event i mean i lost $37 last week so you know uh at least you came out a dollar ahead i did not was not fortunate enough to do that but billy i did continue climbing both climbed hit i saw felt great about them and with ease and I avoided what was potentially going to be my third climb bet I didn't ultimately make it and it would have failed which was going to be the Aaron Blanchfield Tracy Cortez over but we decided to skip that and thank goodness we did because apparently Aaron Blanchfield decided that she can finish fights again which is nice we

love to see it would have hated to see it if the climb was was contingent on it and I'm going to need your help with the climb this week because I got one locked in like that is we're going to make that no doubt about it no questions asked i got another that i'm going to make but depends on which one we're going to make we're going to talk through that in just a little bit uh so let's dive into it billy because we've got ufc katar coming up this saturday i think and by i think i mean i know early action for us east coasters the card kicks off at 10 a.m so that's fantastic i mean this thing will be done in the early afternoon You can hang out.

I wish this has been the case last weekend. I could have watched UGA play Texas instead of not watch that game for most of it. But it's going to be a good Saturday. And we are kicking off our main event with a little Armand Surukian taking on Dan Hooker five rounds in the lightweight division. Sirukian, your betting favorite around minus 480, the comeback on Hooker plus 410. Arman, four-fight win-street coming into this. A split decision win over Charles Oliver at U.C. 300.

U.S.C. 300 was obviously well over a year ago back in April, though he did weigh in as the backup fighter at U.S.C. 312 this summer international fight week. So he's been about, he just hasn't fought. And Dan Hooker coming in on his three-fight win streak of his own, a split decision win over Matush Gamrot at UFC 305 in August of 2024. So both men coming in this off a pretty significant layoff and title implications abound in this fist fight. Billy, let's start there. How are we feeling about the main event this weekend, sort of your initial takes on the matchup?

Yeah, my first read is that, you know, Armand definitely should be favored. It feels a little wide to me just because he has struggled with guys who've got some pop, Dan Hooker, decent defensive grappling. But the layoff for both guys is a little misleading. Armin Sir Ruckians had three high-level grappling matches this summer, so we've seen him. We know he's been healthy. As far as I know, he wasn't really hurt. That wasn't why the layoff happened. I mean, he sprained his back showing off for Nina Drama.

But that seemed more like a weigh-in issue, where hookers had all kinds of injuries. So that's what scares me for Dan. My lean initially is maybe the under three and a half, which is where it's set right now, or a fight doesn't go to a decision. I'm a little concerned that this is going to be your first climb thought, though, on Armin. That one feels scary to me. uh yeah we're climbing with arman and you're not talking out of it i get it but it's it's not as comfortable as most minus 500 favorites you know you know i'm going to end up paying a minus 550 price looking at

the book that i climb with so not quite the price you can get at some other books right now um i think draft kinks hasn't mined minus 480 uh but we're going to be climbing with him um i i mean i have major concerns over dan hooker's injuries dan hooker the fight promoter now not even really a fighter he's a fight promoter um i have so serious concerns with you about injuries i frankly have been waiting for the hooker collapse to come i i have been proven incorrect about this but i was so very very certain after the jalen turner fight that hooker's next bout would be a total collapse because that fight was such a dog fight and such a war and historically when fights of that ilk have happened

both men are just kind of lessened from it Jalen Turner has in fact you know I know he's coming back next year I think maybe later this year I don't remember which one he's coming back I know he's ending his retirement but sort of

he had the expected outcome I think Hooker really benefited frankly from the fact that his follow-up fight to that was old pillow hands himself Matush Gamrot because had he fought somebody who actually has some pop in his hands, I think that fight would have gone a lot, a lot worse for him. And Matush also decided to really willingly engage in a battle that Hooker can win

in a striking contest and didn't even fail that much. Like, he lost, but he had plenty of moments. Armand Suruki in his, at this stage of his career, I believe a better fight of the Matush Gamrot. I know he has the loss. Many people thought he should have won that fight. I actually did score. I actually did score the fight for Gamrod, but I don't have, like, I understand. stand the argument for him winning it. And since then, he's just continued to develop. Armant Surukian, I wouldn't say he should come in and throw hands with Dan Hooker the whole time.

But I think if he did that, he also, like, could have some success. And the wrestling is just a huge thing. I know Dan Hooker's actually been a pretty decent defensive wrestler. But I think Armand Surukin is just a much better fighter than him at this stage of his career. I think Dan Hooker, a little bit smoke and mirrors on this run right? now and credit to him. It's been terrific, but I think Armand Surukian might actually

be the best lightweight in the world now that the Makhachev is a welterweight. I would very much like to see him fight Ilya and I wanted to see Sauru Krakashv too. I felt confident in Islam at the time. Nothing

since then has changed my opinion on how that rematch would go. But I think Sauru Kian is exceptionally good. And I think he's going to win this fight handily. So he is absolutely going to be my first climb. I feel pretty decent about it. Billy, you can't talk me out of it.

No, I wouldn't try to. I just, I'm a little bit worried, you know, super rich guy and Sorokian had some kind of why is he pulling out of this fight issues. You question the motivation. To your point about Hooker, not falling apart, though. He's fought once a year since 2022, which might be the saving grace on not just being, you know, a puddle after some of the wars. It's true. Because you try to have wars four or five times a year like Kevin Holley. and it's obviously going to catch up to you.

You do it once a year. Maybe you can recover from that. You know, the hands breaks and all that other stuff is getting to them. But in terms of brain health and overall durability, I think that's been what's kept him from looking that way. And Jalen Turner fighting next month at 323 for the right. It is 323. Okay.

I wasn't sure if he was there or not. Yeah, shout out. I love Jalen Turner. I don't love that he's coming back, but we'll see. I'll probably spend money betting on him and lose it and that'll be fine. Go to Welterweight. Jalen Turner. you're the biggest light way ever.

I've been saying it for years, but here we are. So a couple of other notes here. Armand 9 and 1 is a betting favor. Hooker 4 and 4 is a dog. So again, a big price egg. He has historically paid out as a dog. We'll see if he can do it again on Saturday. And let's move to the co-main event.

And Billy, I had to check three times to make sure I had this right. I'm very upset about it. Belal Muhammad is taking on Ian Machado, Gary in a welterweight contest three rounds yeah not five don't know why this isn't a five rounder i know that they you know it's not a main event but this is easily main eventable and feels like the sort of thing that you should do the double five round headliners especially when a win could you know make ian machado gary the next welterweight title challenger you should always have them as five round fights i find this infuriating but belal mahomed the former welterweight

in coming in as a decent sized underdog plus 210 machado gary coming in as a you know not significant but a real favorite at minus 250 this is ball's first fight since losing the waterway title is jack delamadal at ufee 315 back in may machado gary four and won over his past five uh famously lost to shavkat on short notice at last year but picked up a unanimous decision went and stopped the hype train of Carlos protest back in April at Kansas City. I say stopped, but protest is all the way back. So he paused it. He was a small speed bump,

not even one of those big speed bumps that you really got to like try and drive around. We're talking just the babyest speed bump to the Carlos Prattis hype train. That is what he and Machado Gary was and nonetheless comes in as a significant betting favorite over a man who five months ago held the welterweight.

title uh that's quite the odds billy how are we feeling about it it's funny how you preampled this one because my first note in the sheet i look at for this was why i really wish this was a five round fight because it absolutely should be i think that would tell us more about ian garry too because yes i went back and looked at the scorecards of his two previous five rounders he has won one championship round of the four total championship rounds in those fight doesn't seem like a guy who should really fade down the stretch you know he's not super explosive he's not not putting out a ton of volume. But he has been kind of.

So that, I think, would be really interesting and would be to Bilal's favor, I believe. What I'm looking at it now, though, is Blal-Mahman. Yeah, right. And what I'm looking at now, though, these are not up yet. So I kind of am hoping we get plus money is the point spread on Belal Mohammed. Went back and looked. The last time Belal was finished, Barack Obama was president. So you don't really worry about him getting stopped.

Gary, not a huge danger in that regard. Well, all did say he wants to box with him, which I hope he doesn't actually mean. I think that's a lie. He said that this week and some of the pre-stuff, but he said that as well against Jack Dell and Adelaina. And obviously, he then did do a lot of that. Not because he wanted to. He was forced into doing that. A little of both.

I do think he chose to do more than he needed to do. And then later in the fight was like, oh, shit, maybe I should start going for takedowns. And by then it was too late. I think this time because the narrative so strongly off the JDM fight was you're not Canelo Hans dumbass shoot takedowns I think this is a bit I think he is it is leaning into a bit at least that's what I'm hoping because if he believes he's truly Canello hands Imichato Gary is going to win this fight on Saturday yeah that's that is my take on it too that he's not or maybe he'll briefly believe it

and then get jabbed once ago, oh shit, this is a really tall guy. I'm going to not do that. But either way, I think he can win a round in here, probably in the later stretch of the fight. Ian Gary, I think people still think of him as a striker, but he needs that grappling to fall back on. And even if he's not getting taken down all the time out of Belaw, I don't think he's going to be throwing Ballal around

and being the one to get takedowns. Makes it pretty likely Blal steals around. Based on what we have the money line at, we should probably get plus money on the point spread for Bilal. Not super confident in that, but I will have a full preview of this, either Friday or Saturday. So once we actually have those lines,

head over to the Action Network, check it out. I'll have more firm thoughts when I know what the prices are. So I have in my notes, I want to see what the point spread line is. I don't know that it's going to be plus money. I actually think it might not be, despite the fact that the overall line is pretty big.

It just feels like the texture of this fight, people will think that this is going to be a 29, 28 decision. And so that points per bit. I would bet it's going to come in at like a minus 120 or something like that. I could live with that, though. I could live with that. But I'm just straight up betting Baha'u'll Muhammad as an underdog here. I think this price is far too big.

I think at a five-rounder, I would actually have some level of confidence in B'Lal to win this fight outright. And even in a three-rounder, this is going to be 29-28s, is my overwhelming thought. And I even think stylistically, if Boulal doesn't try. try to box too much. I really think this is a pretty good stylistic matchup for him. The question is always, how do you look after losing the title? Because historically, we have seen once a fighter drops the title, it tends to go poorly quickly, it goes downhill in a hurry. And so that's certainly a question here. But I think Ballal's pressure game is actually pretty well suited against Di Machado, who backs up a lot. Isn't like the best at footwork and

angles um because he ends not like a huge one hit hitter quitter threat it just feels like ball and as you pointed out like he is seek sneakily used his grappling a lot and i think that's a non-starter i don't think he can take ball down effectively and if belaw is on top i don't think that's going to go well for him and so feels really really like a coin flip to me and i'm getting a really good price in a coin flip so i'm on ball all straight and here's the other climb billy it's a question of what we're climbing with because we got two overs in front of us right now we've got the over one and a half and uh the over one and a half is minus 700 now that's bigger than our climb normals for briefly for those who don't know what the climb is the climb is my

attempt to string together roughly 28 bets of around minus 500 or better well billy because last week my first two climbs of this run were both minus 500s last week I took Islamachachev which was honestly

incredible and he was a minus 290 I think was the price I had him at so I've built in some cushion here the other one was like minus 475

so a baby cushion ran the numbers I can comfortably use the minus 700 of the over one and a half in this

and actually still be ahead of pace for for the climb using that one or we can take the over two and a half now that's around minus 375 you're assuming a lot more risks there another you know five minutes of fighting or whatever but getting a much better price at minus 375 and so i just want to talk through this here's some stats for you bill bill all 10 out of 10 of his past 10 not counting the no contest against Leon Edwards, which does not count for over under bets in this regard, has hit in the over one and a half. He's hit nine of ten, not counting the Leon Edwards, no contest in the over two and a half.

Gary, eight out of ten overs, both one and a half and two and a half in the UFC. Both of these dudes, they like to take 15 minutes. Which one do you think I should climb with? The over one and a half for safety's sake, or assume a little more risk, the over two and a half, we still feel good about it? This is all with the assumption that you are definitely also climbing on Armin? Correct. Yes. This is a two-leg-leg-cloth.

Correct. You're climbing with Armin, and then it's one of these two. Gotcha. In that case, I'd go one and a half because you're getting real greedy trying to do two every week, Jed. You got pretty far just doing one a week, and I feel like you're on tilt a little bit. So if you have to go with two a week, let's go with the safe two. The thing is, I fully intended to come into this week and just bet Armin. Like I had Armin circled like two weeks ago.

I was like, well, we're doing Armin. Unless he balloons up, we're doing him. And I almost like punched the climb in on Monday because the price has already dropped. I could have gotten Armin for like 490 on Monday, but he's already moved to $5.50. And I was like, I'm going to wait because I want to do a full look at the card to see if there's anything else and do it as a parlay. It's easier that way. And then as I was looking, I was like, I don't know how I avoid one of these overs. these two dudes just go long and so the minus 700 is obviously like the safest option but if i also feel

like the over two and a half feels really safe still and you're getting a way better price at minus three seven then i've i have that equity still saved up i even actually gain a little equity because it's minus three 75 so i've still got some room to take to be a little more conservative up the mountain. So I'm in a real pickle here, Bill. I don't know. I have a question that will help you answer this. What will ruin your day more? Not getting the extra payout in a fight that goes to a decision or the fight ending like a minute into round three and tanking the whole climb because you got greedy. Which one of those will make you more sad? Well, that would make me more, that would make me more sad. I agree. But I will also will be sad if this like comfortably goes to

decision. I'm like, why didn't I take the extra 300 points of value? And then you'll be like the crying into your money gift though. Like you'll be you'll be that'll be a good kind of sad about all my money. Yeah. I just again, if this were the only one you were doing on the card and you were being conservative, but you were so good. Won an event. We'll take it easy. We made it step what like 18 or something? We were, uh, sorry, we failed at step 22. Yeah. And ever since that you're like, were so close and ever since then you're like i've got five of them on this card it ended i'm going to start it again in the middle of the card you got to you got to go back to what made you great you know plus before 322 they were just trash cards and i couldn't climb with anything on

them so i'm trying i'm feeling alive right now um i don't know what i'm going to do i appreciate your input check my socials this week we'll let you know which one i'm going to make that determination in the next like 20 hours because I want the arm in price to stop moving. And I think it's only going to get worse, actually. So we'll figure it out. It's reasonable to be conservative. But I don't know. You know, it was reasonable to not do Islam Makachev last week at minus 290 or whatever.

And yet I did. And it was I had zero stress almost instantly. Yeah. I was like, oh, man, hell yeah. I was frankly more stressed about Shiv Jang and Kozhang over two and a half into that fight. And I didn't even need to be really, but yeah. So that's where I'm at.

I'm on below. Let's look at the points spread bet when that comes up. And we're going to climb with one of these overs. We'll see what it's going to end up being. Let's move on. Those two fights rock. Now we're about to get into a stretch of these fights are weird. And then we'll end with a stretch of these fights are, no one cares.

That's sort of the two top fights, great, several super strange fights, and then a bunch of whatever's. The first of the strange ones. Support for this show comes from Odu. Running a business is hard enough. So why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odu. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one fully integrated platform.

that makes your work easier, CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part, O-DU replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try O-D-O-F-Frey at O-D-O-O-O-O-com. Nothing quite makes a holiday-gathering pop like turning on the music. And if you're looking to set the mood, you should check out Sonos. With Sonos, movie nights feel bigger and more cinematic.

While holiday parties come to life with music that flows from room to room, it's the kind of sound that makes a house feel warm and connected during the season. Want studio quality sound at home? Explore Sonos speakers, soundbars, and more at Sonos.com and discover how easy it is to build your own whole home audio system. perhaps the most middleweighty light heavyweight contest of all time on paper as vulcan ozdemere takes on alonzo minifield light heavyweight contest osdemier minus 225 minifield plus 190 those of your odds vulcan three and two over his past five unanimous decision lost to carlos olberg in november at uc mccal last november not the month we're currently in obviously and minifield on a two-fight winning streak i saw him in atlanta and interviewed him after he beat Omar C at U.S.C. Atlanta. This fight could be a lot of things, but Billy, I'll tell you what, I don't think this fight's

going to be, I don't think it's going to be a win for Alonzo Menefield. And so Volcan Ozedemir, you could bet him straight. The price isn't too awful, but I've got him pallied up with one other guy in a sort of similar range just for ease of use, because I think he's winning this fight. I looked at a lot of props. Gun to my head, I'd say he's going to knock out Alonzo Minifield. Minifield has been knocked out several times. Ozdemier certainly can do that.

But there's also some vibe here, some energy that this might just be like awful and like a boring, terrible decision because that that feels like it also could happen. So I dodged all that. I went straight up for Volcanoz Demir as a parley piece. How are you feeling about this, Bill? Almost identically. I have a note, I'm usually not a parlay guy. I think for a lot of reasons, it's kind of silly in MMA because you can just take your winnings and, like, they happen all separately. You don't have to do a parley ahead of time. With all of that said, there's like four-ish minus 200 favorites on this card that I don't really want to lay the juice on, but I think are pretty safe picks. So I'm going to have some combination of round robins, parlays, some group play like that. Only other thing I put, I'm not seeing it on most. domestic books but oesdemeer inside the distance if that's plus money see him maybe plus 110ish some places would consider that want to watch a little bit more tape and just see what um oesdemeer's defensive grappling looks like will he be able to just not be cage pushed and then

whether we think menofield's lost a step because he's getting up there but then so is the ooze they're both wrong side at 36 i don't know like you said kind of a weird fight very strange i was pretty close to pulling O's Demer by K.O. Just because, I mean, Minifield's last two losses were knockouts. O'S Demir has 13 of them. But then I just

I feel like this might get weird. Also, to circle back very briefly to the co-main event, just as a heads up, Balal, do you know this bill? Bilal Muhammad, 7-3 as an underdog. 7 and 3 as an underdog.

That is a spectacular record. Machado Gary has never lost is a betting favorite actually, so Vegas has him pegged pretty well. But Ballal being seven and three as an underdog is really an impressive stat that just popped in my notes.

I wanted to throw that out. That's pretty damn good. Yeah, I mean, people just don't like Bilal so they bet against him, which to that point for both of our bets are interest on Belaw, probably wait until Friday or Saturday. I don't think the price going to get any worse on Belaw. Yeah, I doubt the price gets worse, and

it could get better. That is true. But people don't like you and Gary either. I think he's turned that around a little bit. People really hate him Machado Gary. I think that, I feel like that vibe has shifted a little bit in his last couple, though. Like, we're not as mad about him as we used to be. Maybe. Collectively, not you and I. The issue is people hate him when he talks because he's really bad at talking. So is the more he talks and the, and you talk more during fight week. Yeah, I don't know. Let's, talk about i think the weirdest fight of the year frankly um i was thinking about it i believe this fight is the weirdest fight of the year um and i'll show my work it's a welterweight fight

and i have to stipulate that it's a welterweight fight because neither of these two dudes have ever fought a welterweight before jackramansen coming down as a perennial top 15 middle weight actually i didn't even think to look at this is he no longer ranked at least or is he still a ranked middleweight no he finally lost his middleweight rank King. Okay. Jack Hermanson coming down from being a top 15 middleweight forever, down to Walterweight. Mick to back Oralby coming up from being a lightweight that could never make lightweight. And so we fought a bunch of catchweight fights because he could make 155 because he's gifuriken gantic. Oral by betting favorite, minus 245. Hermanson plus 210 is a pretty sizable

underdog. Hermanson coming off the knockout loss to Robocop at USC 317. Oralby, by submitted defeat musayev at baku in a i think 165 pound catchweight fight uh so i don't really know what to make of that i don't know what to make of this fist fight here billy because it's very very curious not every day you see a uh uh ostensible lightweight fighting uh former middle weight but i guess that's the world we're living in right now how are you feeling about this one i'm actually feeling really good about moktabakh orrubai he did make his ufc debut at walter right and had some LFA fights there, and then tried to come down inexplicably,

which obviously didn't work. But he's in his late 20s. He's like gigantic. Yeah. Well, to my point, one of the things I've noticed of being someone who's formerly in your late 20s, that's when it's a little bit easier to put on muscle.

You can kind of keep that size on a little bit. Now that I'm in my mid to late 30s, one thing that is not easier is suddenly losing 15 more pounds than I've ever lost in my life, which Jacker Manson is trying to do it. Age 37, a few months after being knocked out by Hobocop, I think we're kind of done here with Jack Hermanson. He's trying to throw a last ditch Hill Mary to stay relevant in a new weight class

because he felt the power of guys at middleweight, but does not realize the ridiculous speed he's going to face against smaller people at Walter Waite. Now he's 37. He's slowing down. I'd be kind of surprised if he made weight or didn't look like that's trying to make weight on this one. So I think everything's off for Hermanson. I bet Orelby yesterday. Let me check the price I got on that. I got minus 238.

I think that's gone closer to like minus 250. Most places now would still take that. I think, you know, it was a great run. I like Jackermanson. He's done some fun things, but that might have been the end for him. I wish I could bet on, and sports books should open up the ability to bet on fighters making weight. I absolutely throw a couple of dollars on Hermanson to miss weight here. honestly it would kind of be both a great gimmick and a like a good strategy to be like okay

I'm going to fight this dude who can't make who never made weight and is moving up and now I'm not going to make weight he'll take the fight I'll just intentionally not make weight and then I'm not super drained and have better ability to recover before our fight I don't know that that would honestly win the fight for him hermanson has historically been a very good defensive wrestler. It's kind of the one thing that, you know, would give me some hope if I'm a Jack Hermanson fan here. And Oral By realistically just kind of needs to score takedowns.

But in general, I believe that Oral By is going to win because I don't have any faith in what Hermanson is going to look like on Saturday. Honest to God, when I saw this fight was announced before looking at it, I was like, kind of weird for Mick DeBeck Oralbide to move from lightweight to middleweight, but that's fine I was like oh I'm sorry what like I genuinely just assumed Mick Debeck skipped welterweight

I was like okay that's fine uh nope not what happened here so I'm staying away from this one I don't I this is absolutely a favorite or pass for me like I would I would either parlay up or we'll buy with something

or just avoid because I can't trust Jack or Ranson even if you know I can squint my eyes and make the case for how he could win this fight yeah 100% with you, I probably should have saved it to parlay with somebody else, but I got real excited when I saw that early line. Let me tell you what you're going to be very excited about.

If you were excited about that line, can I interest you in some heavyweights? Sergei Spivak, taken on Shamil Ghaziev, uh, Gaziev, the betting favor of minus 140 to come back on Spivak around plus 125, uh, two men in different directions right now is Spivax on a two-fight losing streak coming off a unanimous decision lost to Waldo Cortez-A-C-3-16 back in June, and Gasev on a two-fight winning streak after he T-KOed Thomas Peterson in February. I will note that despite, you know, the difference in their streaks could potentially be the difference in opponents as Waldo Cortez-A-Costa and Thomas Peterson, not quite

parallel opposition. How are you feeling about, I mean, just... what a terrific heavyweight fight we have you know how you feel about it this is definitely what i'm going to get up make some lunch you know run to the store or whatever i got to do during this one um from a betting standpoint it feels like spivak can beat you if he can take you down and kind of won't beat you if he can't and i don't think he takes gaseyev down so gaseyev at minus 140 would be my play i don't feel especially compelled to bet on this fight like i think it probably be okay to just not not have any interest in this one which will probably be

where I end up, but if I was going to, I think it would be Gazziev. He's came down all the way from minus 185. It opened to that minus 140, which in the one hand makes me excited that I get even better price. On the other hand, gives me a little bit of pause, especially with what we know about insider information and UFC betting

and all those things. So we'll see what that one is closer to the week. Gazziev's my lean but not strong feelings. I'm going the opposite way. I actually am going to place a wage on Sergei Spivak. I don't feel great that Sergei has basically never won

as an underdog. I think he's got one in like five as an underdog, so that's not ideal. I don't believe in Shemil Ghaziev. I simply don't believe he's good. And I'm not going to start believing he's good because he beat Thomas Peterson and Dontail

Mays, who aren't good. The only like marginally decent fighter he's ever faced is Jarzini Rosenstrike, who beat him. You know, also that fight was awful and that fight is sort of indicative of why I'm picking it because Shemu Ghaziev is not a man who has the cardio to the last 15 minutes in general

Sergey Spivak he's got flaws he's actually got pretty decent cardio for the heavyweight division he might not get takedowns in the first round I suspect takedowns will come as this fight wears on and spivak's actually fairly durable you know he doesn't get knocked out super early unless it's Tom Aspinall or whatever or like super athletic good fighters his opposition like the guys who have beat him were all really good and Walt Harris

but that was a million years ago so I feel like he should be the betting favorite here because Shumugaziev's not good he's just not good and I won't believe it and so I'm taking Sergei Spivak and I'm going to place a wage on him at plus money

and we roll to the final fight of the main card and let me tell you. After this, there is one fight that I intend to spend any amount of time on, and we're going to zip through the rest of them things, because there's only one other fight after this one that I think is super interesting. But this one is kind of interesting. I don't know. It's weird. It's objectively decent. Top 15 fighters. Alex Perez takes on Asu Amabayev in a flyweight contest. Amabayev, minus 205 betting favorite, the comeback on Perez, or on plus 175, Prezis won in four over his past five.

Coming, making his return after the TKO knee injury loss to Tatsura Taira in June of last year, Amabaya 5 and 1 in the promotion, unanimous decision went over Jose Choa in July at UC Abu Dhabi. How are we feeling about this one, Billy? Yeah, this is another one of those minus 200-ish favorites that I'm going to have some kind of exposure to. Don't know exactly what on Alma Baiv. The concerning thing for me is Perez is, as you pointed out, this will be his first fight back from a knee injury, was booked in August and pulled out of that fight with an injury. I don't know if it was the knee just isn't better yet or something else happened.

That didn't seem to be public. I kind of have a rule as a strong word, but guideline, I will never bet a fighter his first fight back from injury. I will let him lose one more while he gets that. Well, you know, he's probably going to lose this one, shake some of that ring, off next time if we get him at a big price against an equal level of competition when they're a little bit more back in the swing of things they've got training again that will be the spot to get back in on Alex Perez who is talented and pretty much everyone he's lost to either is a champion or will probably be a champion at some point that is if they ever let

Makayev back in the UFC but he has that level of ability dude he's a brave champion now that is true he is the brave FC champion but Tyra probably a future title contender very soon You know, Makayev, if they get him back in. Perez is no slouch, but I just can't trust him at his age, 19 months out of competition with at least two injuries that have derailed his training in that time while Almibayev is over here fighting all the time and working hard being in camp, et cetera. Same. And like even if I felt good about his injury status, this is historically sort of a fight

that would be tricky for him, a sort of chain wrestler with good top position grappling that has paid dividends again. against Alex Perez historically. I think Amabaya would be like the worst of those that, you know, Perez is faced in a lot of instances. But stylistic, I still like his chances to get this done. And he is the guy paired up with Volcanoz-Demir. Again, you know, you could bet them straight.

I just was like, eh, I'll put them together. It's safe. Let's just shortcut it. I don't want I'd be doing it. That's fine. Put the two of them together. It pays out plus 115. I like the chances of this one to cash.

And straightforward, simple. I looked at some overs here as well. I actually think that those are, I think that there's some value in those. Pulling it up right now, the over one and a half is minus 400 over two and a half or minus 200. I think both of those, the over one and a half could be a parlay piece. Is that something you're looking for? And I do suspect this to go long, but just on Alba-Bive is a parlay piece. Billy, let's move to the prelims, and here's what we're going to do.

I'm going to tell you the prelim fight. I'm going to give you the background. There's one of these. You know the one that we're going to actually talk about for real. These other ones, I basically don't have a lot of thoughts, and I'll just be like, hey, do you have thoughts? I don't have thoughts or whatever, and we'll move through these at a pace unless you have a lot of thoughts on Bogdan Grad taking on Luke Riley, because that is our prelim main event, a featherway. contest grad plus 220 riley minus 265 riley's making his uc debut he's an undefeated fighter out of cage warriors uh grad was a 2024 contender series signy who i thought wasn't very good uh so for me billy

this is a matchup of a guy i don't believe in who is one in one in the promotion but did just lose to mohammed naimov who is mediocre versus a guy i know literally nothing about i i did not watch tape on Luke Riley just wasn't going to do it I would guess he's going to win couldn't couldn't put any sort of a number on what that would be do you have thoughts I do have some thoughts I watched some tape on Luke Riley every like northern UK prospect now looks like the same dude between him and Louis Lee Scott and Loney Kavanaugh similar haircuts similar fighting style not great takedown defense very good takedown getups if they offer these markets on draft kings

which usually has the props. I'm looking at Bogdan Grad, like takedown ladders where you play two, three, four, five. Bogdan needs to wrestle here. He doesn't always wrestle when he needs to or else his record would be better. I think he will learn that lesson in wrestle here, but I don't think he'll keep

Riley down for very long. So this is a perfect combination of fight where he might get five takedowns in a round he loses and then just get knocked out in the second round or some combination like that. So follow me on Twitter or the action network discord somewhere i will be posting how i handle that once those lines come up probably won't be till saturday morning that they even have those stat props or if you play pickum

sites any of those grad over i bet they'll be up before i bet they'll be up friday because this is guitar and so it's early so time change um fan duel usually has stuff like that too i don't play enough of those frankly um because i do think they're just sort of fun things to do um but yeah they're frustrating because no one knows what a takedown is like when i hit that mat return because you got back up to two feet for half a second. Do I get another takedown sometimes, but not always. So those get frustrating because of the scorekeepers. Yeah.

This fight, it's a fight. Can Luke Riley shake the, I fight for Cage Warriors? So I suck curse. That seems to have infected every cage, like every time I see a Cage Warrior signing, that used to be something like, oh, he's probably good. And I'm like, he's going to lose because that's just what's been happening. Here's a guy who's not going to lose And I know he's not going to lose both because I think he's talented

And because he's the biggest betting favorite on the card One of the bigger ones you're you know You'll see in a UFC contest is Abdul Rachman Yakyeev takes on Rafael Sir Kiera Minus 1,000 for Abdulakman Yakkeyev Sirkiara plus 655 the comeback Yaakiev's making his UFC debut He was a contender series signee

from the most recent season. So, Kira, this would be his fourth fighting the promotion. He's lost the other three, most recently, unanimous decision to Julius Walker back in August. Billy, this is very obviously a set-up fight by a guy who's never won in the Octagon and a guy who I graded as a very high prospect coming out of Contender Series, super young, pretty talented. I comped him to Osamette Merzikanov. You know, he's a light heavyweight, so the comp felt apropos.

only like you know how merzikanov has this sort of dad bod like merzikanov looks like a guy who should be operating a barbecue in the russian like mountain somewhere like he that's the man who should be working a grill uh and just like hanging out in the backyard yakev's a little bit more fit than merzikanov but same cool same sort of guy uh he going to win this fight and so i have him by Keo at minus 190 because Cirqueira dies a lot and Yakiev can't

you know he's actually pretty varied in how he wins fights submission versus knockout I think he's going to knock him out I also am kind of interested in the under one and a half maybe as a parley piece I don't have it thrown into anything but certainly for y'all it's like minus 350 uh

Cirqueira 10 of his 14 career fights have gone under the one and a half five of seven for yakyev this fight is a set up fight and I it's suspected to look exactly like that yeah agreed I just don't know why they seem to be so interested in yakya the guy he fought on the contender series is like a lead software engineer at a bank or something like it was so they're really trying to push this guy I don't quite know why it doesn't seem like he checks any promotional boxes but because they are 24 uh big and big and look we tried look every season of contender series you got to have one of these guys

they tried to make Ebo Aslan a thing. I tried to make Ebo Aslan a thing. I was like, I don't know. He's young and big and a light heavyweight were grasping at straws for anything. Anything promotionally that's it. Like the Mountain Tiger was supposed to be the guy

and then Johnny Walker freaking gasses him up. Like he's young and looks decent getting off the bus. He's a large dude and he swings a hammer. Maybe that's it. Like that's we, you keep rolling. in those dice and hope one of them

comes up snake eyes you know and so that that's what we got here uh look a leak lorenz was he good no but yaki have killed him in 30 seconds so that's what you're supposed to do to guys who aren't good a memo we need to get to your boy jimmy suss uh look

jimmy suss jimmy suss needs a lot of memos and uh the biggest one is you're good you're not great I've never seen a fighter think he like with a bigger disparity of how good he thinks he is versus how good he actually is because he is talented yeah but man he needs to he needs loss in the worst possible way he's not going to get one because they're going to keep feeding him the eric mccanicos of the world but like after uc 32 when he called out beau nicholas like they should make that sure yeah yeah I was like they actually should do that that because Bo will probably slaughter you. And then maybe you could be like, oh, I actually, I'm not Hamzot. I train with Hamzot.

I'm not Hamzot. I need to be, I'm closer to Shavkat than Hamzot, frankly. But I'm not Shavkat either. He needs to figure his shit out. That was a nightmare fight for him this weekend. The guy who fell the most despite winning the fight and even getting a bonus. I think you got a bonus for that. I don't remember.

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up. to the Audible original blockbuster, The Downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Anyway, uh, that's where we're at on that fight that is a fight that's happening. Now here's a fight that we should talk about because it's good. And I don't know why it's here. I'm very confused why this fight is buried on the prelims when like realistically could be a title, not title eliminator, but one of the guys fighting and it could fight for the belt very, very soon is a flyweight contest between Tegir Ullum Bekhov and Kiyoji Horaguchi. Uh, that's right.

Kiyoji Horoguchi. he back maybe he's been back for a minute but he hasn't like happened and now here he is taking on the number 11 ranked flyweight in the UFC uh both men entering on winning streaks to gear four-fight winning streak unanimous decision win over as a as at maxim in june at baku keog three-fight win streak this will be his return to the uc uh he won at rise in forty nine uh in december of last year he was the rise in june champ, you know, he's been doing all sorts of things, fighting at Bellator, Risen, just partying, ban him weight, flyweight, anything he wants to do.

Olin Bekhov, though, Billy, is the betting favorite minus 205, the comeback on Kioji plus 170. How are we feeling about this fight? And tell, explain to me why it's before Abdul Rachman Yakiyev and after Bexat al-Makhan. It should be well before Bexat-Alma-Con, which is actually my most. most anticipated fight on this card, which we'll talk about shortly. But yeah, I don't understand because he knocked out Kai Asakura, who they brought in and gave an immediate title shot,

like after getting knocked out by Kiyoji Horaguchi. So probably managerial or promotional reasons, you know, like they kept him out of the UFC for a long time, probably some reasons there. I don't know why he's... They've been insane about it. They booked this to gear fight in June. And at the time, we were like, that's a stupid fight.

That's a hard fight and no one knows. knows or really cares about Tagir. And then Kyoji pulled out and they were like, you know what? That fight's so good. We're going to book it again. Like this is the only matchup that they have eyes for and I don't understand it. Yeah, I don't either. But with that said, I'm on Kyoji at the price.

I think, you know, watching his recent fights. The note I wrote down is he still has everything but his chin, which has been a little bit of an issue as he gets later in his career. It's like six months older than Teguil and Bekoff. It feels like he could be his dad, right? because we saw Kioji Horaguchi 12 years ago fighting Demetrius Johnson or whatever that was. They're effectively the same age. And Togirloombeckoff does not hit hard. He dropped Cody Durden once, never scored another knockdown.

Not something I'm really concerned about. I think Kioji's kind of better everywhere other than durability, and that won't be an issue. So, yes, adjusting back to the cage is a little bit of an issue. There's some other stuff there, but at the price we're getting, which is... He fought in Bellator plenty. But not, I mean, his last few were risen, arising. But, like, that's, it was like, two or three years ago. Like this, I just, he trains it AKA, or not AKs, ATT, yeah.

But yeah, at plus 170, I'm not worried about those issues either, so I'm with you. Same. It's a great price. I'm on Kioji. I don't know if it's being a homer because Kioji rocks. This feels like a very winnable matchup for him. I was honestly very surprised. Like, you could have convinced me this should be a pickam.

But for Tegir to be like a sizable betting favorite here is just wild to me. me, Keogi's been going up too, so wait, if you're on the Keoggi side. Like, people are pouring money in onto gear. I mean, Keoggi's always been, like, pretty solid as a defensive wrestler. Not amazing, but, like, he's just super springy and athletic. The times his defensive wrestling has let him down has, frankly, more been at bantam weight, you know, patchy mix or whatever, of flyweight that he is still super fast. He's obviously a substantially better striker, much more pop. I really like him here

And I don't know why they've buried him Because they've buried him Well I would normally say that means he's not fighting for the title next But this is flyweight They're kind of honor walls They might still just do it But like that's why you should put him higher Because I know

Like we all know he is training partners Friends with Pantosia They have both come out and been like We would fight each other So Build towards them fighting each other Like I don't understand The OCs handling of this

So often and Dana White gets mad when teammates are like I won't fight each other and these two dudes are like yeah we actually are friends we train together and we will fight each other and he's like awesome go to the in prelims

and guitar what the fuck are we doing here man like what are we fucking doing here I don't I don't this is a ranked fight for all intents and purposes both men are ranked in our US our MMA rankings at M8Find dot com say ranked fight I get it I mean

I don't get it. You still shouldn't do it, but at least there's a precedent when you do it to the Norma Dumonts of the world and you're just burying women's bantam weights on random undercards. This shouldn't be the case here. This fight is great.

I'm excited about it. And apparently, you're excited about our next fight. I'm just going to let you wax poetic here in a bantamweight contest between Bexat Amokon takes on Alexandre Teporia, basically a pick-em. Slight favorite Tuporia, but pretty close to a pick-em depending on your book.

It's a pourier 1-0 in the UFC, Bexout 1-1-1, both coming off wins earlier this year. Tell me why you're excited. Yeah, because I love Bexat-Alma Khan. He came in on short notice and dropped Umar and Ramagamadoff, and we're all acting like that's a normal thing to happen. Nobody dropped. He did. He also then lost every second of that fight other than that portion of it.

They made him fight like the second best bantamweight in the world on a few days notice in his debut. and then he came back and they gave him a guy who's literally never been finished and he killed him in 26 seconds or whatever it was and freed us from the pain of having to watch Brad Catona as much as we had before. And he's fighting a guy whose best ability is his last name being the same as that of a champion in Alexandria Toporia. Toporia fought a guy who came in on a few days notice

to a competitive decision in Colby Thickness, who I think is decent, but thickness was coming in on a few days. Bexat should be like minus 200 here. Tuporia is not anywhere near his talented as his brother. Bexat's going to kill him. We love Bexat. I am on Bexat because I do think he should be a bit betting favorite. I don't know that I have a gray read because I just like, yeah, in general, I'm like, yeah,

Bexat fought Umar competitively as most people. And Teporea, I don't think is good. But I also don't know that he's not good because he's fought six times or whatever. doesn't fight um but i took it for funsies and because i thought i needed to juice my card up i was like i don't really have that much action this week i should have a little more i was like this seems fine so i don't feel amazing about like i'm not like this is definitely confident i'm so i'm happy to hear your confidence because i mostly just thought it was a decent price and i in general really like to take bets like this because teporea i feel like the markets

give to Poria more value than he's worth because of the name because people who don't know things will just see the name and go. So, Beck's at Allma Khan. I'm on that as well. I'm glad to hear. You've now sold me to feel better about it as opposed to being like, eh, why not? Let's have some fun. I have a bet here and I think he might have been feeling myself too much. I don't know. Tell me, Ishmael Nadiav takes on Ryan Loder in a middleweight contest. Nardiev, small betting favorite, minus

130, to come back on Loder plus 110, both men one and one in the promotion, both men coming off losses earlier this year. Loder to Asimette Bekoev, Nardiev to Jun Young Park. So actually, losses do good opposition, frankly.

Billy, I'm on Loder here. I took a dog, I'm going to, took a dog shot on Loder. He's really big. He's going to be much bigger than Nardiev. I'm not super sold on Nardiev. he's got pretty good takedown defense and it's not like nardiev uh i mean he's you know he wrestles a little bit he also he's the whatever russian wonder boy or whatever the hell he calls his name uh

but he's not like this thumper on the feet kind of feel like loder should maybe be the betting favorite here and so i took a shot on him am i crazy no that's my exact read like ryan loder is a all-american wrestler i believe a wrestling coach somewhere or was and he's fighting a guy who got taken down twice and controlled on the ground by the Elyern Turtle. No disrespect to Jun Yung Park. Love him. A good grappler, but not at that same level of grappling. So we'll see.

I was hoping for a little bit better price than we might still get one. So I'm not betting it yet, but 100% with you. Dope. Lightway contest, Nerulo Aliev takes on Shim Rock. The U.C. is straight up just calling him Shimrock as opposed to, I believe, his given name is Shaquemi. Shikim Rock and Shim is his nickname. I don't know anything about this man other than his name is terrific.

I think instead of being Shim. Although Shim Rock works, I think he should be Shim Sham Rock. Shim Sham is just like the best. Shim Sham Rock is absolutely Pete. Like I would bet on him, I bet on all my money on Shim Sham Rock, but instead he's just Shim Rock. Aliev's minus 300. Rock is making his UC debut.

Ali have 2-0 in the promotion. I don't know a single thing about Shimrock and thus I am not betting it. But I did just want to say he should be Shim Shim-Shim Rock. Shim-Shum Rock sounds like the long-lost adopted brother of Ken and Frank who they've kept somewhere in a basement.

Shemrock, really interesting story. I would encourage everyone to look it up. He was wanted for a crime when he was like 20 and he just fled to Malaysia and took up MMA while he was there and had like a whole ass pro career while on the lamb. came back and was actually acquitted and then made it to, I believe, Bellator and then Cage Warrior or something like that. I have no bet here. I've not looked into him enough. He looks really good. I was actually very impressed by the little bit of tape I saw.

We'll probably be on Shemrock because it sounds more fun to bet on him, especially with his story. But we'll have a little bit more analysis on that later in the week. I want to be 100%. If I was betting this fight, I would, on principle, be betting on Shimrock because you got to do that. he could also be shim fraggle rock that'd be fine like with the with the last name rock there's just so many things you could do but shim sham rock seems like just the obvious answer that they should go with um somebody clip this and send it to him however however if he wins i'll make sure he knows what he needs what needs to be done here uh two fights left to talk about a welterweight contest. Nicholas Dalby takes on

Sagiad. Isa Gakmaev. Isa Gakmaev's making his U.C. Dubu. Dalby, two-fight losing streak got knocked up by Randy Brown in April. Isaqmeyev minus 325. So a really big betting favorite Dalby plus 260. Isa Gakmaev, he fought for one a little, a few times and sort of around this big gaudy record, 22 and 2. He's a grappler. He's, most importantly, he's,

He's not Brazilian, so Nicholas Dolby can lose to him. If he was Brazilian, Nicholas Dolby all day, because he's Russian, he's probably going to win this fight, and that's all I have to say about that. I had it down that if this were like a year ago, I would be rushing to that Dalby or his point spread. But I think the durability is finally running out on Dalby. He's like, I think almost 42 at this point. He's getting up there. There was a time where you could take that Dalby point spread, and maybe he gets robbed on a decision against Renot-Fakkar-Denov. but at least you got the point spread and it doesn't matter.

I think those days might be over at his age, given the damage he just turned 41 to be clear. His birthday was two days ago. His birthday was Sunday. Happy birthday, Nick Dalby. One of my favorite fighters to watch, please don't do too many more, though, because I'd like you to be able to talk. I don't think he's going to be able to do too many more, because I suspect he's going to lose days of Gakmaev. And that takes us to our opening fight of the evening. And, you know, I lied earlier.

I said that it was two really good fights, a bunch of weird fights, and then a bunch of, uh, that's all true. But then we open it up with a really weird and bad fight. So, uh, two men making their U.C. debuts, Mark Bouglo taking on Denzel Freeman in a heavyweight contest. Buzlo is six known as U.C. or in his career, Freeman six and one. Unclear why this isn't happening on the contender series and is instead happening at U.S. guitar. Buzla has basically been fighting for a year. He's a grappling guy, like he hails from the grappling arts.

Freeman is the LFA heavyweight champion. I don't know if he's like had to vacate to do this or how that goes. Most recently, he was the LFA heavyweight champion. And I'm going to guess we'll win this fight. This, I don't, why are we doing this? You stole my thunder. I was going to introduce this as week 11 of the contender series with the one one event card week 11 of the contender series is the lead-in. This is normally a spot where like throughout this year I have bet on a guy who's really good at jujitsu because I do jujitsu and I like jujitsu.

There's no video component to this fight, but I got my belts hanging in the background, all that good stuff. I'm sick of doing that, Jed. It does not work out. You also shouldn't Freeman is, he's actually not a bad wrestler, so he's probably going to sprawl and be. the shit out of this guy. I watched all of one fight of Denzel, Luke Fox Freeman, whose nickname also used to be Batman, so we'll see what other comic

book character, his nickname changes to in the future. And I watched him LAT drop, Fat Max Holloway, Stephen Aspland, like three times in that fight. And he seems to be a heavyweight who's both moderately athletic and has more than three and a half minutes of cardio, which puts you

in like the top eight, I think, in the UFC right now if you check both those boxes and can hit a cool lat drop on a big guy. So I'm betting Denzel Freeman. I'm swearing off betting the Butchetches of the world. I will not be doing it anymore. Not just this fight, but in general. I'm sick of it.

I've had enough. I mean, one shout out to Stephen Aspland, who also got signed off the contender series. Aspland is not good. She's just not. I kind of love him nonetheless. because he's a real weirdo and you know we support that but yeah uh the old luke fox who is you know batwing uh have did you check out freeman uh his his socials because like he's he's very into batman so yes i i've noticed that well but it will be interesting

if he changes to some other version of that if he gets introduced is bruce way Bruce Wayne at some point. Let's do any sorts of things. Just keep changing it each time. Yeah, I think he's going to sprawl and brawl this dude, but I don't know. I'm not betting on it. I don't bet on, you bet on contender series. I don't bet on contender series.

I make way more money betting contender series than the UFC. Then you should be betting on this because this is contending series. Yeah, I am on Denzel Freeman, best line I'm seeing like minus 180 range. Yeah, minus 185, something like that. Yeah, I'm just not going to. touch it but i bet denzil freeman wins um and that's it that is ucatar billy uh thanks for joining me we've got a week off next week because here in the states it will be thanksgiving uh basically all next week is football too there's like football on thursday and friday and saturday and

shit so much football next week which rocks since we don't have fights and then we will be back the first week of December for the last pay-per-view of the year, potentially the last pay-per-view ever. UFC 323, Maraud de Valshili, taking on Piotrion 2, trying to be the first fighter in history to record four title fights in one year. And Alejandro Pantoja taking on Joshua Van. I'm really pumped about USC 323. Billy, thanks for joining us.

Tell the people where they can find you. Yeah, over at actionnetwork.com or fantasylabs.com cover MMA, both those places. Twitter, Psycho Award 586. We'll post all my bets and things like that. Before we get out of here, Jed, I have to ask you a philosophical question. Why does the UFC just not end their schedule with the big pay-per-view in December? Every year, then they throw one more crappy apex card at us. Just end it there.

It'd be such a good high note. I'm so excited about it. And then we all have to slug through, especially those of us that cover this for a living, just a card we don't care about every single year. It's a really good question, especially in these circumstances, because you could just swap them. Like, it would be so very, very easy for the first week of December, the event is the Royval Cop Apex card, right?

Like, that's easy. And then the second week where that Apex card is now currently, that's when you do UFC323, and it's great because also then you get, yeah, and you get a lead in, whereas there's, going to be a week off into a pay-per-view and they almost never do that it's usually here's an apex card go-home show leading into a pay-per-view so it would make so much sense to do that and i don't frankly know why uh they don't do it it i don't get it um but you know they got to get they have to have a pay-per-view every three weeks that's just it and i guess and that's the timeline is every

three weeks. We're doing a pay-per-view. Maybe that'll change. Maybe many things will change next year as we move away from the pay-per-view necessity, even if they still do numbered events might look a little different. As we move into the Paramount era very, very soon. Again, thanks to Billy Ward for joining us. Thank you for listening. And we will see you not next week, because that's obviously, as the aforementioned, that's Thanksgiving. We'll see you in two weeks for you to see three, Love y'all.