MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Are Holly Holm And Mayra Bueno Silva Fighting For Uncrowned Champ Status At UFC Vegas 77

Episode Date: July 13, 2023

Coming off the sensational UFC 290 card, the world's premier MMA organization returns with a disappointing follow-up: UFC Vegas 77, headlined by a women's bantamweight fight between Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva. Is it a good card? No. But nonetheless, the No Bets Barred boys are back to break it all done. The conversation starts with the majesty of UFC 290 where both Conner Burks and Jed Meshew had winning weeks, and much fun was had by all. Then it's on to new business as with a lackluster, difficult card, both men have to pick their spots to find value. Topics discussed include whether the main event will crown the best women's bantamweight (now that Amanda Nunes has retired), Jack Della Maddalena's short-notice switcharoo, and the brilliance of the lightweight division. Tune in for Episode 53 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian

in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine, available now, only from Audible.

What is going on, y'all? We are back, another edition of No Bet's Bard. This time, UFC Apex 77. Holly Holie Holm taking on Myra Buena Silva. we go from, in retrospect, what could be the card of the year, to beforehand. If it isn't the card of the year, it will be a massive letdown. Big scenes in Las Vegas this weekend. Absolutely.

I mean, let's start here. Not even a question. UFC 290 is the card of the year. It is, frankly, the card of the last several years. So just an unbelievable. weekend and like John Anick said on the broadcast you know nothing but respect for John Anick

and everything he said is true and that the hits just keep on coming Connor the hits they're here it's going to be amazing uncrown uncrown title fight like the the vacant bandam weight women's bandamweight title up for grabs how are we feeling about that

I don't know I feel like this is the women's bantam weight interim title Oh, I think that this is just a fake. Like, we should be just making this the title fight. I think the UFC should have done that as soon as noon has retired. I'm like, hey, they're fighting already, let's go for it. Might as well.

A couple of people on a win streak. One of them's a champion, a former champion. The winner of this can fight, you know, Juliana Pena or whoever they decide. But either way, I'm going to call this person the best female. I'll ban them weight in the world at the end of Saturday. All right. I like that you're going to give them that title. Going back to UFC 290, fantastic card, domination from Volk,

unbelievable war between Pantosia and Moreno, DDP, huge knockout, incredible stuff from him. Your guy, your guy. and I personally am very much looking forward to his fight with Izzy, especially after Saturday night. He was impressive, man, and people can keep doubting him, but the way that he talks about that Izzy fight, how he's like he's going to bring the fight to him, he's going to get the hands on him, he's going to manhandle him. I'm very interested to see how that one is going to go. Yeah, I think everyone is at this point.

I remember coming in, I mean, I guess not coming in. remember DDP's most recent win, right? So before, before Whitaker, he beats up Derek Brunson. And it's a back and forthy fight at some points. He kind of looks like maybe he's gassing. That's sort of DDP's M.O. in general. But I remember after the Brunson won in March, I was just like, that's the guy. Let's just do it right now. I got a lot of pushback. Nobody was that into it. None of that anymore. You beat Robert Whitaker. You beat him like that. You make you do something that only, only basically Israel Adisanya has done before. Everybody's all in on this fight.

My great hope is that it doesn't happen in Australia. It's just too quick of a turnaround for DDP, in my opinion. Let's give this the full build. If Izzy has to fight in Australia, you can fight somebody else. You know, that's fine. He can do the Sean Strickland or whatever. But I think these two guys are on a collision course and everybody is pumped about it. for me, don't do a fight in between,

uh, in between Izzy and DDP. Like whether, whether it's making easy weight, like, that's where I would be as well. Like don't, do not make him fight stricth in,

in Australia. That would just, that would kill anything. Like I, I have my heart set and I think everyone does. And I think Izzy does too, has his heart set on the, on the DDP matchup.

I mean, that, that's where I'd be as well. But, you know, sometimes they just put, business ahead of reason and logic. It's like, well, we got to have somebody

to headline this Australia card. Nobody else is really available. And so I agree, it would be a big letdown. But either way, these two dudes will fight. Banana appeals. Sean Strickland upsets is he? That would be quite funny if Sean Strickland was the banana peel in this situation.

Because then DDP is going to want to fight Sean Strickland. I don't think DDP much, like, he's building the fight and he's making this a rivalry, but like he wants the belt. I don't think he really cares whether it comes off of Izzy's waist or Sean Strickland's waist. Absolutely. It would be so MMA of, hey, we've got this clear rivalry building. And then all of us fans are like, Robert Whitaker is just going to screw this up.

You're making DDP fight him. It's going to go to crap. And in fact, DDP beats Whitaker, but somehow Sean Strydard. Rickland is the one that screws up this referee by beating Israel Dissna. So I'm with you 100%. Like I would not choose to do it. I think that there's a possibility of it happening because the machine marches on forever with the UFC. So that's my big hope is that it won't that we get that.

Because, I mean, coming out of 290, I think the biggest storyline is Jerkis Dupus E versus Israel Dissina. it's that a Robbie Lawler but I mean he turned some heads on Saturday that's for sure you mentioned the Robbie Lawler retirement fantastic moment then we had Dan Hooker dog then we had

Bo Nickle showing the hands Man Bo Nickel looks good huh Oh God looks great And then Deniseie Gomes Of my opinion A moment of the night Yeah, real four four sub minute four sub one minute KOs, modern UFC record. Just, uh, what a night of fights, dude.

God, I wish that was every weekend. Uh, winning week, correct? Winning week. Uh, I ended up, uh, you loyal listeners know, I, uh, I was banking on Yair to, to do something. That wasn't even close to ever happening. Uh, but big, you know, the big bets on DDP and Loller at pretty, healthy underdog odds get me uh over the hump just a little over one unit on the on the week and love a w always love a w love a w i got a very small win but a win nonetheless shout out the

pantosia uh for that one so we move forward to ufc apex 77 with bright eyes 14 fights from the world's most famous arena world's most famous warehouse adjacent to a company's headquarters and we start with the main event. Women's Bantamweight bout. You're saying the vacant women's bantamweight title, Holly Holie home taking on Myra Buena Silva. And right now, Holly Home is the favorite at minus 170. Myra Bois Silva coming back at plus 145.

Do you have any action down on the main event? I have action down. Do you have action down on the main event? I do not. I am clean. on the main event. Wow, look at you being clean on the main event. So I'm working on a parlay.

I don't have all the pieces or kind of, I'm still sorting through things. I'm, you know, the Seaberg special here, the over one and a half in the main event, feels like that's probably a good parlay piece given what Holly Holm has been, been known to do lately. But my only concern is Meyer Boyd Silva.

Yeah, I don't. Are you concerned, that she might finish Holly home on under seven minutes or that she would get finished. It's the arm bars. No, it's the arm bars that I fear for. I mean, it wouldn't be impossible, but I'm back in Holly home in this one. I got her at the price of minus 155, so a little bit better than you're seeing out there right now. For a couple of reasons, the main one is, like, I won't be super shocked if Marlboro wins.

She's looked really good since moving back up to Bannamway. But and look, she's shown some good effort, right? Like she's a committed body attacker, kicks the legs a bunch. Those are both good things. But I can't get the Menon Fior fight out of my head for MBS. And because in a lot of ways, I sort of view Menon Fior as just like a smaller, like a smaller Holly home, I guess, like the her game. game feels similar in a lot of respects.

I think Holly Holm, well, she's probably not the fighter. She's probably not at the peak of her powers, but I think she is still a good enough range striker to probably just win the fight on the feet if it was contested there the entire time. But moreover, I don't think MBS is really going to be getting takedowns. In the clinch, I've actually really been impressed by the elbows and knees from MBS, but Holly Home is just this like smothering clenkins. fighter lately. She'll just get double underhooks and just kind of physically dominate you around.

And MBS, I don't think, can stand up to the physicality of home, certainly in those close quarters. I think home can get takedowns. And I'm not all that concerned about the, you know, as you put it, the armbars and the submission third off her back. I don't think home has to get takedowns. I just can sort of just, at this point, do a Holly home performance. It's who she's been for the last few years. I think she can do that to MBS. And, at minus 155, I like the price. I kind of want to add the over one and a half to a parley. I've got it available right here at minus 475.

It feels very reminiscent to the Brandon Moreno, Alejandro Pantoja. And Holly Holm, 10 of her last 11 have gone over the one and a half. I mean, I have a prop parlay that I very much like. So maybe I'll just leave that out there and just not even sweat it. but yeah i think i'm with you i think holly home wins this fight i guess the thing keeping me away is i've been burned on holly home fights before like it is probably going to go to a decision there might be like some competitiveness about it and i just like can't really trust these judges but i do think holly home's going to win i understand like i can't i can't blame you for not

wanting to back your put your harder in American dollars on on Holly home who is not I mean she is won and you know most recently the Yanos Santos fight like I thought that maybe she would slow down or whatever and that she just pretty clearly won that fight even though it was not spectacular

and that's that's the thing when was the last spectacular Holly home win it's Bechkehaia like that's the last like really good Holly home win the rest of them just been sort of grinds man and that Betzco Heo was now over six years ago.

It was a long time, long time ago. And Betchko Heo wasn't even good then, so it's tough, it's a tough hang. I mean, tough hang is this entire card. Let's keep it rolling. Let's go to the co-main event of the evening. Middleweight bow. Boating for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. Ugh, what?

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to making co-main events right now, the Iron Turtle minus 150, the Rye of coming back plus 130. Any action down on the second and last fight in the night? I don't, but speaking of Tough Hang, your Tough Hang co-host, my friend and colleague, Mr. A.K. Lee would call this fight a penultimate fight. I don't think this is a co-main event in any regard.

And this fight really speaks to how I view this card, because it's not a bad fight. There's like a piece of me that is genuinely interested in this, but this is the sort of fight that, like, in my head and in a perfect world is, ooh, that's a fun sort of complimentary pre-limm fight on a fight night card. Like, okay, well, so we've got a couple of marquee ones. We've got some rank guys, names jumping out. And then this will also be like a sneaky fun fight.

This entire card is comprised of sneaky fun fights. and then trash. So it's just a tough one. I think Dariah is going to win this fight, but I don't have any real level of confidence in it. Basically, one, Jun Yung Park has sort of continued to exceed expectations, just scrappy, really fun guy, well-rounded,

not created anything. Dariah, I think, is a good enough wrestler to sort of probably win. those positions if he needs to and chooses to. And on the feed, he's just a little more athletic, a little quicker, I think. I can't bet him in one part because he's an Akmon-M-A guy, and I'm just not going to support him for that. But I don't even feel massively comfortable, particularly with how Jun-Young Park has sort

overachieved in spots. So if I'm picking, just straight up, I think Der I have wins it, but no action. So I actually will be taking a dog shot on Albert Drive for a lot of the things that you said. I'm pretty confident in his wrestling and grappling in this situation. I think Junion Park, you talk about exceeding expectations. I also look back at his last few fights. The level of competition that he's going against isn't the most impressive in the world. You know, Dennis Tallulin, Jamie Holmes.

And who was it before that? Anders. So the level of competition isn't wowing me. And his strengths that he's been able to get it done, the wrestling and the grappling, I don't think he's going to be able to do that here. I think he's going to push a pace. I don't think he has a ton of power. And I think he's going to force Dariav to go to his wrestling. Sometimes it feels like he strikes a little bit too much when he has that wrestling and grappling advantage. And I think he's going to go to that wrestling and grappling. He's going to have success. And I think he can get this done. I like it. I like it. him at the plus money.

That's like I'm at plus 135. Yeah. Like I said, if I'm picking him, I just straight up, I'd pick him. But I'm not going to take the bet. But I think that that is the value line for sure. Although we keep it rolling to a heavyweight bout, Walt Harris, the return taking on Josh Parisian right now.

Right now you can have Walt Harris for minus 161. 65 Parisian coming back at plus 140. I got nothing on this. At one point, I think Walt Harris was like a minus 220. I would have absolutely been on Parisian at that price, but I missed that. Don't think the old big ticket should be a minus 200 against just about anyone,

even if it is Josh Parisian. At the end of the damn, staying away. Do you say that because he hasn't won a fight in like four years? Is that why you're saying that? Yeah, he hasn't want to fight in four years and has been knocked out three straight times. Very true. You say this, well, first, let's start.

This is a heavyweight contest, so I will absolutely be taking the heavyweight over. It's over one and a half. The lines minus 110 lined pretty evenly. Got to say, frankly, love the price because Wall Harris not really a heavyweight over guy. He's about 50-50 when it comes to hitting over one and a half in his UFC career,

seven of 15 have hit over. Josh Parisian, just a stalwart of heavyweight over nation. Four of his five UFC fights have gone over two and a half, and all five have hit over one and a half. This man is going to give you close to 15 minutes of action for your money, which is what we love to see here. So particularly you think, hey man, Josh Parisian probably at least is maybe slightly

undervalued because of that, great, because Josh Parishian. and didn't getting anybody out of there quickly. It's just not what he does. I am also adding a second bet here. Wow, two bets on this. I'm going to be, well, I have to do the heavyweight over. I don't have this other bet down because I don't have the price available.

And it's insane, but I'm doing it. I think this is a setup fight. I think they're trying to get Walt Harris to win. Walt Harris has not won since the tragedy that happened to his family. In his defense, since that time, he's fought Alster Rovereem, Alexander Volkov and Marcin Taibura.

Those were all like top 15-ish dudes at the time. This is a huge step back for him. Yes, it's going to be two years since he has fought. But Josh Bresian isn't very good. And I don't know that Walt Harris is good, but he is powerful. He is going to have a huge athletic advantage in this fight. And I think that he can get this done. And when Walt Harris wins, it is by knockout.

He has 13 careers. wins, all of them are by knockout. The man is not going to submit you. He is not going to go to decision. He's not going to lay and pray you. So I'm going to take a bet on Walt Harris by KOTKO whenever I find that line available somewhere to me. Considering Walt Harris, you know, is currently looking at minus 165.

I bet his by KOTKO is like minus 150, but I'm still going to take it. No, it's available at a book right now for plus 110. If it's plus money, a thousand percent I'm taking it. all 13 of his career wins have been by K.O. Yeah, that's actually pretty interesting. The number should basically be the same as his straight-up odds. Yeah, he's kind of like the knockoff in Ghana. Just literally only wins by knockout.

Six and nine in a U.S. Yeah, just on a three-fight losing streak, hasn't won in like four years. A lot of bad things I get it. Is it smart? to have two bets on a heavyweight fight between low, low level heavyweights? No. It sure is not.

But that's where you come to no bets for. If you think this is the dumbest bet I'm making this week, just wait until we get to the prelims. Wait until we get to the next fight, women's featherweight bout, Norman Dumont, taking on Chelsea Chandler, baby. That's what I'm talking about right now. Big Norm. Does this mean you have action? Do I have action?

I think I've said it the last two episodes. I've been sitting on a Norman Dumont ticket for like three weeks now. Norman Dumont right now, minus 140, Chandler plus 120. I got in on Big Norm at Plus Money, Plus 115. This is my Super Bowl, the final women's featherweight fight, maybe ever. And we need to go out with a bang. And who's going to give us that bang? Big Norm Dumont, baby, the immortal one.

Yeah, I was surprised when they first dropped this line. That's obviously why I took it. I really, like, think she's the better technical fighter, pretty much anywhere this goes. I think she can mix in the takedowns. We saw Chandler, Tchenler, O'Ranko, who is just not an impressive fighter to me at all. I think she can rely on the clinch. I think she's going to be the faster fighter, too. I think she gets this done, man, and finishes my women's featherweight betting career on a high.

Big norm. The amor. I love that energy. If she's plus money, I'd be interested. I'm not going to take her as a favorite because I agree with everything you're saying. I think she's a vastly superior technical fighter or whatever. But I can just, as I was watching tape on these, I can just sort of see a fight unfolding where Chandler just, you know, kind of gets dinged up early on. Norm was, you know, using the sand of stuff and keeping range, fast hands and a lot of kicks.

and then Chandler just sort of keeps coming and making it ugly and just throwing big bombs and just making this into a dirty, grimy sort of fight where she can succeed and Norma Dumont may struggle a little. So I wouldn't take her at the favorite money. I think I would like Dumont as an underdog. And she certainly will be my pick if we're just asking straight up who wins. Sharks, you're not going to have any action down on this. I mean, this is the stuff dreams are made of.

this is, I mean, it's a historic event. I feel like I should have a bet on a historic event, but I'm not. I will say that I am looking at the over two and a half in this as a as a parlay piece. It's currently minus 2.35 at Draft Kings. Seven of Dumont's nine wins by decision. She's been due six straight decisions inside the UFC. Chandler only has a handful of fights in her career, but, you know, Dumont's a pretty tough cookie.

I don't think that if Chandler can't have success, I don't think it's going to be an early finish. It would be over the course of, you know, 15 minutes just piling up damage. So kind of looking at that over two and a half as a parlor piece. Did you take Norman Dumont by K.O. last time out against Carol Hosa? Was that the chat GPT bet?

Um, because she never did take norma dumont she's never won by knockout i mean it's sitting right that might be that that that actually might be right and it's insane when you think about it because they chat gpte almost exclusively defaults to decisions it almost is never picking finishes so for it to pick norma dumont by finishes uh it's quite a statement plus a that plus a thousand and i think you're right i think i did plus a thousand by nine knockout right now for big norm to get her first K-O in the UFC octon and in her professional fighting career

anyway. Cannot wait for that one. The people's main event, as they're saying. We'll keep it rolling. Lightweight bout. I mean, we could say that that's for the vacant featherweight title too. Yeah, now you're talking. Double title fights this weekend, baby. Let's go. I think Norman Dumont might be the best 1-45 or in all the UFC. We keep it rolling.

Actual fun fight, lightweight bout. Atman of Zaitar taking on Francisco Prado. Very closely lined fight right now. Obman and Prado almost near evens. You can have Prado for minus 120. I'm at plus 100. I don't have a side on this one. This is like one of my prop parlay.

I actually mentioned it last week on the show. Under two and a half. The way these guys fight, they're going to come in aggressive. They're going to come in swinging. And I think someone's going to get knocked out of it. If you just look at both the dudes' careers, Azitar, 13 of his 14 fights, ended under 2.5, 10 in the first round.

Prado, 11 of his 12, under the 2 and a half, 8 in the first round. Just think these guys are going to come in here looking for violence, and someone is going to end up going out. A couple of things to say on this one. Love the bet because I am taking this fight does not go to decision as a parlay piece.

Mine is 275. I've got, cook myself up a little violence parlay. and not to spoil it. It's with the very next fight on this because looking at this card, this card to me is where I say, man, lightweight, best division in the sport. These are two maybe top 50 guys in the world in our next two fights might have four top 50, top 80 lightweights.

And these fights are absolutely rule. As I talk Prado should be super fun. I still have some high hopes for Prado, you know, long term. He's still only 21. And he came in on short notice against Jamie Malarkey, who's a very, very good lightweight, was massively oversized against him in the cage. And, you know, still at least gave a decent showing, even though he very clearly lost that fight. I think Zytar, it could be tough.

Prado could very well lose this fight. Zytar is a very good offensive fighter. He has a lot of power, a lot of. a flash, a lot of hands, and will, uh, these two dudes are just going to get in and chuck them. I would say Prado has like a slight grappling advantage, but I don't really know how big it is because he's still relatively, I mean, not relatively, still very unproven. So I'm just really excited to sort of see how this fight develops. That's why I didn't want to take either action, even though I think there's maybe a touch of value on Zytar. So, but I'm like you, I think there's

almost no chance this fight makes it to the card. So parley piece. Yeah, I, I would be surprised if We even saw the grappling here. I really do think they're just going to come in here and just box it up until someone goes out. Just swing them. And it's going to be fun as hell, man. This and the next fight are actually going to be super, super fun. Let's get right into it. Lightway bow.

Terrence McKinney taking on Nazim Sadikov right now. Sadikov, your favorite at minus 145. McKinney coming back at plus 125. Yeah, I think we have the same bet here. I'm just on the under two and a half, especially in this one because it cuts off a lot of juice. It's like minus 550 to not go to a decision minus 360 under two and a half. So, like, you're getting almost 200 points there for two and a half minutes. And honestly, I wouldn't even want to be holding the ticket. I'd be a mess if this one made it past the

halfway point of the third round anyway. I don't really see a late finish happening. If you've watched Terrence McKinney fight, you kind of have an idea how this one's going to go. doesn't matter who he fights. 18, professional bouts, 18 ending under the two and a half, 15 ending in the first round. We talk about agents of chaos. Terrence McKinney might just be the agent of chaos. He's definitely, if you had to do a fantastic four, a Mount Rushmore of Agents of Chaos, Terence McKinney and Charles Olivaire are definitely one and two that I'm starting the mountain with. Dude, he gets it. tennis McKinney is probably never going to be a champion and that's fine because he understands

the entertainment business he is giving you your money's worth every time out this is a man who doesn't use the judges doesn't need them done want him take the night off cecil peoples you are not necessary when this prelim opens and sadikov also frankly no slouch as as a finisher i mean the dude has one decision in his career. So he is also out there getting after it. I think this fight is going to be a barn burner. Wouldn't shock me at all if McKinney actually was able to get this done. I know he's a slight underdog.

Again, kind of feel like there might be even a touch of value on him because we have seen Sadikov get hit before. McKinney certainly starts very fast. But can he finish him? Sometimes McKinney had, we saw Drew Dober got hit and hurt and McKinney couldn't put him down. it's all just sort of up in the air, you know, Ishmaelbaum Femm. McKinney is just, it's hard to feel confident betting on him ever,

but it's incredibly good, like I can feel incredibly confident betting on him to not make two and a half. You were absolutely correct. Violence parlay is the doesn't go to decision in the Isotar Prado and the under two and a half in this one. That just a little simple two lecker, keeping a real easy, real clean. Love it. Me too. Me too. I actually really do love it. It's my biggest bet of the weekend for sure.

McKinney, inside the distance. Like, if you're going to take McKinney, you might as well just take them inside the distance. You get it from plus 124 all the way up to plus 160. Plus, a bit of breaking news from yesterday. Terrence McKinney tweeted, and I quote, they got me as an underdog. So if you want to make some money, throw some bucks down on Saturday. Just saying. Love the confidence. Just saying. Love the confidence from Terrence McKinney. Let me look at how successful he has been as a betting underdog.

Round one is only plus 240. I was saying that can't be a super high number, but it would be great. McKinney as an underdog, he had to have been an underdog against Favola. Not even that big of an underdog against Favola, actually. Only plus 175. It's been a favorite all the other fights in the UFC. but one and no is an underdog is he gonna submit him

or is he gonna knock him out if he wins I assume that if he wins it's a K-O Um Saedikov keeps his left hand up very high But uh certainly drops his lead hand a lot He kind of keeps that low shoulder rolly style His arms moving a lot Um

And um Evan Elder is that that's who Sadikov fought right Evan Elder um Evan Elder um yeah Evan Elder buzzed him pretty early on on in that fight just because Sautikov got a little lazy. And so I think if McKinney does it, it's going to be plunking him in the face and then falling up with, you know, those knees, those elbows.

Looking forward to it, might play something, something fancy on like a Terrence McKinney round one, K.O. or something if I can get a... I mean, that's just a fun bet. Yeah, they're just getting the exact, uh, I'll wait, I'll wait for all the other books to drop. Love the exacto bets. Uh, and we'll see what we can do. Let's keep it rolling. My guy, Jack della Madelena back on the card in a welterweight bout against Basil Hafez. Right now, topology says we got seven main card fights. I don't think it really makes a difference. It's all

just going to be on ESPN Plus. Short notice, I watched a couple of Hafez fights. I really don't have much interest in betting this just because the line is juiced out right now. Wherever he's available, JDM is like a minus 600. Having to cut weight twice in a week, don't necessarily love that. Hafez, he does seem to have a grappling game as well. Half his wins are coming by submission. But obviously, when you're talking about the level of competition, it's not fully there. Something I do see a lot of people going back to is the Jeremiah Wells draw split decision back in 2017. I don't know. I think I'm just going to sit back and watch this one. The lines, I think the under one, a half is it like minus 200 also minus 205 yeah numbers are just too juiced for me it's just kind of a

weird fight i'm obviously cheering for jdm but we'll see what happens yeah so um i got a little stat connor i think it's important so um it's a jdm stat um i don't know if you know this he's fought four times in the ufc yeah all four of them have been first round first round finishes yes also knew that. Now the submission for Randy Brown, that that threw us for a loop there. But I think we're not, I think, I think that was just, you know, he was just testing it out, wanted to see how it felt,

you know, strut around. We're going to get back to knock out Don Giacomo. And whenever I have an opportunity, I'll be placing a bet on a JDM round 1, KO. Not a big one. I'm sure the price won't be super good, but I just want to have some fun.

And rooting for JDM to get another first round finish, pretty damn fun. It's fun. It's fun. It's fun. That's what I'm going to be cheering for. It's been very lucrative lately. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's what I'm going to be cheering for. Typically with JDM, you're looking to play underers. You're looking to play knockout props. Plus, his man's mad, Connor. This man's mad. He had the Sean Brady fight, this massive fight that's going to elevate him. Start making a run up the rankings, taken away. Short notice replacement. Thank God that that was, you know, thank God that they caught that before. like JDM is on the wrong side of something like truly tragic happening,

drops off, says can't fight a 290, can't take part in the best card in recent memory. He's, he's going to take out all of that anger, all of that frustration, all of those, those bad feelings on Basil Haffas,

and we're just going to be out of here. So first round, JDM, let's go. Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall, get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. That's annoying. What? You're a muffler. You don't hear it? Oh, I don't even notice it. I usually drown it out with the radio.

How's this? Oh, yeah, way better. Save on insurance by switching to Bel Air Direct and use the money to fix your car. Bell Air Direct, insurance, simplified. Conditions apply. Love it, love it, love it. Let's keep it rolling to the prelims. women's Bantamway bat about Ashley Evan Smith taking on Aelin Perez um I have no real interest in betting this fight uh looks like Perez is a lot of money coming in she's she's now up to minus 190 Ashley A Evan Smith AES as her diehard fans call her plus 160 uh I got nothing here don't know yeah yeah no no one should have anything here the AES stands out there. I love you.

Love your passion, your energy, but, you know, she hasn't fought in three years. Even when she was fighting, she was not winning. Four of her last five or else. She hadn't fought in three years. And she hadn't fought in three years because she got popped by Usada. And so if you can't win when you're taking legal substances and now theoretically you're not taking them, it doesn't bode well. I don't think Alan Perez is very good. either, but probably good enough to win this, but certainly this is not the quality of fight

that I should be putting money behind. Yeah, I'm out on that. Let's keep it rolling. Men's flyway bout, Tyson Nam, our guy taken on Azab Maxim, a debutante who is 16 and 0 from Kazakhstan. His nickname, actually, fittingly enough, Kazakh. So it works out there. I love that, like, half the Kazakhs.

stand fighters who make it to the UFC, their nickname is just Kazakh or some variation on Kazakh. That's how you should get to know them. But Maxim right now, minus 410, NAM coming back plus 310. I took the under

earlier in this week. I was, I grabbed it plus 120 and I very much like that because Tyson NAM won it's a flyweight under. There were rumors they were back. Then they weren't. Then they lost two more times before UFC 290 was over.

And Tyson, name's been good to us on cashing these things, man, four of his last five fights. He's got power. And I'm not, I'm not completely sold on Maxim being able to, to get the takedowns here. And at that point,

I think it's going to become a striking match. And Tyson, NAM, four of his last five fights. I think, I think he, I think he can finish Ozat, but on the flip side of Ozat is the real deal. 16 and 0,

but he didn't really start fighting guys with any sort of experience until like his ninth fight. I mean, if he is the real deal, 12 of his 16 fights, he's won by finish. So I think the finish is live for him as well. Flyweight unders,

maybe back for this one fight. You know, I hope they are back. I will not be partaking. I actually was, I didn't do it and I can't quite get myself over the line here, but I'm somewhat interested in a Tyson Nam underdog shot here for sort of the reasons you said, I mean,

the big one here, yeah, I mean, the price is very large and the big one for me is you know, watch a little bit of Maxim. I'm interested to see how he comes along. I mean, 16 and 0, you got to stand up and take notice. Doesn't matter if you're fighting barbers or whatever.

16 is just a lot of a win streak in professional mixed martial arts, but a lot of those are not over real opposition. It's a gaudy record And I want to see what happens Under the Bright Lights Under a veteran guy

So we were talking about off air You know It appears not a tough guy you are You and A.K. Lee on the tough hang It appears that Connor McGregor and his team of Not veterans Are struggling against veterans

And Tyson Nam The man is a veteran So Feels like this is a big one I don't mind that at all, dude. I really don't. With a guy that's coming in who, yes, he's 16 and 0, but what has been in the level of competition? How is he going to react to a guy like Tyson?

There's just no telling him. He's a minus 410. Could go one or two ways. Could be like, man, he was the most solid parlay piece of the week. Or it could be like he will not be minus 410 for a good while. Yeah. I may pull the trigger on it as we get closer, but just not quite there. But I would definitely not be parlaying maximum.

I've got to prove it to me, man. Got to get proven. Yeah, I feel that. Let's keep it rolling right along. Lightweight bout, another one for you. We've got a couple more before we're out of here. Carl Deaton, the third, taking on Alex Munoz. Right now, you can have Alex Munoz as the favorite.

at minus 150. Carl Deaton coming back at plus 130. So I'm on Alex Munoz. I took him at minus 135. Obviously, the main concern here is the layoff. Hasn't fought in a couple years. But from looking at... There are a few big layoffs on this card.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But I actually read somewhere that we're going to have to wait like eight fights into the card before we're going to see anyone coming off of a UFC win, which is... Wow. That is pretty crazy. That's tough. But yeah, I mean, so I went deep diving on his Instagram,

and obviously that's not really concrete evidence, but it looks like he's taking this time to make the necessary improvements. I don't think he's been a way for, you know, just doing nothing. And now he's just trying to have a little money grab here. So I think he has made the improvements. And then when you just come down to breaking down the actual fight, I just think he is the better fighter than Carl Deaton. And I think what he's going to try to do, his strength, trying to get this to the mat and wrestle him and grind on him is where Carl Deaton sort of struggles.

He's been taken down. He doesn't really have great takedown defense period. And then I mean, even on the feet, I think Munoz can have success there as well. I think the reason we're getting this line, we're coming off back-to-back losses. But putting that into context, and against pretty tough guys in Nasrott, Pena. I think this is a pretty decent size step down in competition. And then obviously the layoff goes into that. So obviously there's a world where Munoz comes out here and he hasn't made any improvements and he struggles and he can't get the takedowns and he kind of looks lost on the

feet. But I don't think that's going to be the case. I think he's going to come in ready and he's going to be able to get those takedowns and win the fight. Yeah, I'm, I agree fully. I'm just not going to bet um you know we've talked about it recently trying to take fewer bets particularly on prelim level fighters stuff like that and i'm just not going to do it on muno's here but i think the wrestling is key and i think it should uh give him a clear path and carl deaton can be a fun fighter but he's got some pretty severe limitations in that regard so i think your bet looks safe to me we'll see what happens we will see what happens we roll on to another lightweight bout janaro valdez taking on Evan Elder, Evan Elder, the big favorite at this point. You can have him for minus 320. Valdez coming back

plus 235. I used Elder as a parlay piece actually with the KSW card filled the freeze. Look at you. Yeah, shout out, shout out. I still think he's got decent potential. He's only 26. He came in on short notice against Preston Parsons, obviously just outsized there. and got a pretty gnarly cut against Nazim after winning the first two rounds in that one. I think he can use the kicks. I think he can mix in the takedowns and have success here just with an all-around game plan. Valdez, he's not the most technical. He is hitable.

He can get taken down. But obviously he does carry power and he does have a nice chin. But for the reasons that I mentioned earlier, I think Elder gets it done. Yeah, I don't have a strong thoughts on this. In general, I would assume that Valdez is going to lose. But, I mean, you look at his losses, they have really come to very good competition. The Ton Levy, Matt Fervola. I mean, those are both very, very respectable dudes.

And that's no disrespect to Nazim Sadikov or Preston Parsons, you know, guys who are fine. But level of comp favors Valdez, even though that. but also can't bet Faldez. I mean, Mexico just caught it in the teeth last weekend. So yeah, well, maybe he's here to. Can't be betting the Mexican surgeons at this moment. Maybe Raya Dito is here to bounce it back for him. I also have to say the Matrevola fight,

if you go back and watch that, I mean, it was, he got knocked down like six times before finally getting knocked out in like a three-minute span. Mavrivola is such an interesting fighter. Like, it's kind of weird that Terrence McKinney blew his doors off, given that, you know, where he's gone on to be and that performance against Drew Dober, just hell of a fighter. I think he could make the argument that he just got caught against Terrence McKinney. I mean, well, definitely. It was seven second chaos or absolutely.

Yeah, like, he just got caught. And that's just the game. And that's my, that's the thing I always, why I say lightweight's the best, because, like, Matt Furwell is the top 15, 20 guy. And Terrence McKinney came in and knocked him out. out very, very quickly. It can happen anywhere. Like, Gennaro Valdez could just beat Evan L. Elder senseless and could randomly like tomorrow just decide,

oh, I'm going to give some top 25 dude the fight of his life. It's just a shark tank, man. I'm going to end up having like six or seven bets this weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised if I lost all of them. That's the level of this card is at. Love that confidence from you. What do you want me to say, man? I'm betting on Norman Dumont.

Losing confidence. I'm betting on Norman Dumont and Alex Munoz coming off a two-year layoff. Like, what do you want me to sit here and be like, these are locks? There's no way this could go wrong. Speaking of locks, let's get into the next fight. Straw-Waibout Estelle Nunez taking on Victoria Dutakova. And Victoria is your favorite coming in at minus 2.10. Estella Nunez coming back at plus 180.

I'm on Estella Nunez. I took her a plus 240. What do you go? I mean, it's similar to the Haragi fight from last week. I mean, due to COVID, yeah, like she could end up being a pretty decent prospect, but she's 24. Her game is fairly one-dimensional. And she's going up against Estelle Nunez.

So, yeah, she's six and four, and she's lost, I think, three straight. but she's going to be more experienced there. She's been in the octagon on several occasions. She's pretty much fighting for her job. She has to understand that. Like if she loses, it's over. And I think she's going to have the much better striking. If this does not immediately go to the mat,

I think Estelle Nunez is going to be as live as they come. And as long as it stays standing, I think she'll remain live. Now her cardio does can wane. But for that first half of the fight, I think she's as live as possible for either a finish. or to potentially bank the first two rounds. So 24 years old, making her UFC debut.

And at the time that I took this, she was like minus 280. I just disagreed with the line. And I threw a half unit on the Stellan Nunez. I love Underdog Connor. Underdog Connor is the most fun. Actually, four of my five plays this weekend are plus money. I'm noticing that a little bit of thing here. Just cannot join you on this.

So I'll be clear. I will not be betting on Dutakova for all the reasons you basically said, like, as a favorite while to put this price on her. But, yeah, if this does stay standing, sure, I think Nunes has a chance, but she is not a very good defensive wrestler. And look, this is probably the optimist in me. It's probably dumb. Kind of think Dutakova might actually be like a real legit prospect.

Like maybe somebody who's fun and new. undefeated as a pro and amateur like a fairly extensive amateur career particularly as far as MMA goes level out of the signs here has looked good I think she can and Estella Nunes feels like

the exact right matchup like all right you can't really defensively wrestle Dutakova just go tackle her tap her out and let's start building something so I don't I love the year on an underdog I will not be joining you

yeah I don't blame you man I mean, it's a fight that, in my opinion, it's dog or pass. I just, I don't know. There's going to be some people parlaying up due to COVID this weekend. And like, it could look very smart in retrospect. And it's never smart to parlay with debutants unless the debutant's like Bo Nicol. Or it could be, you know, a 24-year-old fighter, 6-0 making her debut who has the next year. She is not Bo-Nichael.

She is not Bo-Nichael. All right, that's all my bets. two more fights to go. Do you have anything on Austin Lingo Costa? I have nothing on Austin Lingo Costa. I do have one on the open. Tucker Lutz versus Melsig Bogdasarian. I sure do. What do you got for me? So remember earlier when I said if you guys think that's the dumbest bet that I've made on this card, you are absolutely incorrect. Welcome to the dumbest bet I've made on this card. I will be betting on Tucker Lutz at a spectacular underdog price of plus 140 and Connor, I could give you, I could give you the full, you know,

breakdown of the techniques and all that, but that would be a lie. I'm betting on him for one reason and one reason only and it's the best of all reasons. Melsic Bagdasarian, man's nickname is the Gun. Melsic, the Gun Bagdasarian. You know what Tucker Lutz's nickname is? Top Gun. I have just a gun or I have the top gun. The best of the guns. I have to take the top gun over just any old other gun. So I'll be taking Tucker Lutz at this underdog price, and I'll explain nothing further about my decision making.

Now tell me, is it Tucker Top Gun Lutz or is it Top Gun Lutz? You know, I didn't actually go back and look at his intros, which maybe I should have. I'm assuming it's Tucker Top Gun Lutz, because so very few MMA fighters go with the pre-nickname You know, they always just do the sandwich method, but it would be a lot cool if it was Top Gun Tucker Lutz. I think Top Gun Tucker Lutz is the way to go.

Yeah, Melzic. Much better. The gun, Bagdasarian. He's just a gun. Yeah, can't blame you for that, man. I like that. And that'll do it. So, yeah, my bets.

Alex Munoz, Estella Nunez, plus 240, Derive, plus 135, nom maximum under two and a half, plus 120, Normand Dumont, plus 115. parlayed up McKinney Sadikov under two and a half with the Azatera Zytar Prado under two and a half and then I did Evan Elder and filled the freeze over in KSW and I think I might add depending on the line uh Terence McKinney round one in that uh I didn't even look at KSW I might have to look at like it's a terrible car something figured out yeah and mail this one it'll be fun uh my bet's holly home uh I've got the Harris Parisian over one and a half I'm going to take a flyer on Walt Harris by K.O. Round one. J.D.M. by round one, K.O. I don't know what that price is going to be, but whatever it is.

Tucker Lutz, as we just discussed. I think I am going to throw a flyer on Tyson NAM just because plus 310s a big old number. Might as take a shot. And then I finally put in my parlay as we were talking here. I've got Isatar Prado does not go the distance minus 275. McKinney Satikov under two and a half minus 360. And I just decided YOLO. I'm going to throw in JDM as a parlay piece

because it brings me to a plus 105 parlay instead of, you know, like a payout 70 bucks or whatever on a Honda. So that's where we're at. Shortest episode ever? I hope so because that was that. UFC Apex 77 next week. UFC London. Not a great card, but it's in London.

So it's cooler and Tom Aspenol's back. And that's that. And we'll see you then. See you then. Love you guys. To the Vox Media Podcast Network. Getting ready for a game means being ready for anything. Like packing a spare stick. I like to be prepared.

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