MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Are Leon Edwards And Sean Brady Fighting For A Title Shot At UFC London?

Episode Date: March 19, 2025

The UFC is heading back to the O2 Arena. On Saturday, the UFC returns across the pond for the latest UFC London card, headlined by a pivotal welterweight clash between Leon Edwards and Sean Brady. This is Edwards's first fight back since dropping the title to Belal Muhammad and both men have designs on a title fight with a win, so No Bets Barred is back to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by the Action Network's Billy Ward to dive into all things UFC London. Topics discussed include whether Edwards can get back on track against the surging Brady, how Jan Blachowicz might fare against Carlos Ulberg, why Kevin Holland should stick at welterweight, the dreadful year Jed is having with his bets, Leg 13 of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 121 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Billy Ward: @PsychoWard586 Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard, and finally it is one that doesn't suck. That is a very exciting thing to utter because we haven't got to say it all that often. Certainly didn't get to say it last week for UFC Vegas 104, which double sucked because I did terribly. Continuing a tragic year for my gambling. So frankly, you're a hero if you're listening to this. this because God, I hope you're listening to it to fade me. Otherwise, you are not in financial good state because that's where I am at.

Last week was an abomination. But before we talk about that, let's introduce our guest for this week. You know him, you love him, a frequent contributor for us at this point. The Action Network's Billy Ward, Billy, how you doing? How excited were you about UFC Vegas 104? Yeah, I felt about the same way as you did about. the same way you did. I'm on a terrible streak of every main event fighter I bet on just gets poked in the eye a ton of times. I feel like it's been three of the last four. You know, we were

talking a little bit about off air about how no one wants to take a point. I was going to make a profit if I just got Vittori over the line, was up heading into the final two fights, lost both picks. I'm going to claim it's because of the rampant eye poking against fighters that I bet on. But, you know, we got to improve the process as well. I mean, I don't even know how to to improve my process at this point. I am just hemorrhaging money. Five units down last week. Only one successful bet.

The Waldo Cortezza Costa bet last week for me was the only winner. My Marvin Vittori bet, my Kurt Hollabawball, though frankly I don't feel bad about the Hollabaw ball bet. I feel like underdog money. I got my value there. I don't, all three parles, which were a little gimmicky in concept, but none of them succeeded. I don't, one of them, two of the three legs lost, too. So it's just like a disastrous weekend all around for me. And it continues a disaster's year. We are approaching 20 units down

for the year, which isn't anything anybody ever wants to hear. And so we're pressing on into this week. But the one good thing, the one good thing, Billy, that's happened, the climb continues, 12 legs down I want to say never in doubt but it actually was in doubt last week as the climb bet last week leg 12 was the over two and a half in the main

event between Vittori and DeLi Dalyzei and Marm Votori jaw jacked him early in that round and had put a scare to the climb ultimately he remains Marm Votory and couldn't break an egg and so the bet cash we feel really good

and we do have a climb leg this week. I had a couple of options. Went with one, already got a locked in, so I don't need your help figuring out where we're going, Billy. But anything else you have to say about Vegas 104 before we turn our attention to the matter at hand, the UFC London, the return

to the O2 Arena this weekend. Last thing I have to say, one prediction you have gotten entirely right this year, was that I would not be able to resist the pull of the climb. Last time I was on with you, I said it was one shot, lost it that week, started it up right again. I've gotten through four

steps. I had Kevin Lillejos last week. So I am also climbing. I'm pretty sure I know I'm going to pick. I have not fully locked it in yet though. So we'll we'll discuss it a little bit. Dude, the climb is just the most fun thing I do. It's not. And like, and it's stressful. Like 12 steps up is stressful now because that's a long road to get back there trying to really pick my spots. I feel pretty good about my bet this week. It was between two. I think one of these could be somebody you're circling as well, but that's not the one I ultimately ended up with. But let's just dive in because we actually have a good card on hand. Rare enough to say for non-paper views and frankly even some of the pay-per-views this year, Billy,

but UFC London, the return to the O2 arena and the return of former welterweight champion, Leon Edwards, in the main event taking on Sean Brady in potentially a number one contenders fight. Obviously, the Welterway title picture is pretty muddled. If Brady wins, though, Edwards is the number one ranked contender right now as the former champion. So Brady will obviously move very high in the UFC rankings. If Edwards wins, you know, he was out, he's out here saying he deserved an immediate rematch. I think everybody knew that wasn't happening in general. But still, former champion gets a win over a top.

What is Sean Brady ranked in the UFC rankings? Number five. So a top five win. maybe he's he's certainly on the short list even if he doesn't necessarily get it so big stakes in the main event this weekend edwards has not fought since july when he lost the bell to belal brady four and one over his past five his loss in that stretch also to belal mohammed currently on a two-fight win streak coming off the unanimous decision win over gilbert burns back in september uh i know you have thoughts on this i actually read your action network uh luck rating

column I do every week, so make sure you go and check that out. I know you got thoughts on it, so I'll let you have the table to start here. How are you feeling about how this is lined with Sean Brady currently installed as your favorite, around minus 150 to the comeback on Leon Edwards plus 130? Also, some of these odds that I'm going to give you have changed a little bit. I did a lot of my prep work last night, and so looking at the odds today, some of them are a little different? I'm not sure if this is one of them.

But how are you feeling about Leon Edwards being an underdog here? Yeah, it feels about right. You know, my luck ratings were not super definitive on this one. Probably not one I would have touched on had it not been the main event. It's interesting because if we do some MMA math, which you absolutely shouldn't do, Brady got starched by Bilal Mohammed and Leon Edwards took him to a decision. So we got that going for him. They're about the same age.

You know, we can't really project one guy to be improving more than the other. The one thing, though, is the way Bilal-Mahman is, the way Belal-Mahman is, Faw at Leon Edwards is a readily available option for Sean Brady should he be able to keep that up over five rounds. You know, a little bit shorter, thicker, grappling heavy game plan, a lot of wall install. That's exactly what Belal Mohammed did. That is where Sean Brady also excels. Since then, since Monday when I wrote that or since you've even looked, the lines moved to Brady about minus 160. I think I'd still lean to the Brady side if I had to take a money line.

my favorite option here is come into the fight with the Sean Brady ticket look to see if we can get a really good price on Leon Edwards live after a round or two because I could see Brady getting some takedowns early, tiring himself out trying to chase him, and then Leon Edwards with a late comeback. It's kind of how I see this fight going. I just don't know if the comeback will be enough to secure the win or if Brady will have enough rounds in the bank. I got a lot of thoughts about this fight, frankly. I reflexively, I think these odds are wrong. I just, I know that Sean Brady, I know how that Blow Muhammad fight went, and that lines up really well for how Sean Brady gets down. And so A plus B equals C, like it should be possible for Brady to go and tackle Leon Edwards a bunch and just win this fight.

I am really skeptical. And don't get me wrong, I am not buying into the Leon Edwards. I was 30% of myself fighting Belal. Probably wasn't 100%, but no fighter is ever 100% Billy. We know this. But that is the worst we've ever seen Leon's wrestling look because his wrestling has historically been solidly. He has been a solid defensive wrestler. Kumar Usman, Colby Covington had a hard time taking him down, kind of succeeding in that area.

He just either Balal is way better than we all think or he really did have a bad night or Belaw was just super scouted, super prepared. I have a lot of doubts about Sean Brady. And honestly, I think this is all just the lingering hangover that I can't get over of Sean Brady just getting took to the woodshed by Bilal Muhammad. I mean, he got big brothered in that fight in a way that was really, really damning for me to like view him as a legitimate title contender, which is what he will be if he beats Leon Edwards here.

and so I'm going to say we're going to get a better performance out of Leon this time around. If Schoenberg comes out, shoots to double immediately gets it. I'm going to feel real stupid. I do have a bet on Leon Edwards at the underdog price. I got him at plus 145. You can find bigger books out there at this point now because money apparently just keeps coming in on Brady. So I don't feel great that I'm on the wrong side of the money here. But I am on Leon Edwards, but more important than that, the most important thing,

Right here, right here, Billy, the climb, main event climb action, because over two and a half, it's right on the minus 500 target line. That's the line we're looking for for your climb bets, minus 500. 16 and 1 in his UFC career going over two and a half. Leon Edwards is Brady, a little more dangerous, five and three. But I think nobody's anticipating Sean Brady is going to get Leon Edwards out of there early. and Leon Edwards does not get fights done early. 16 and 1, the over 2.5 at minus 500, I feel really good about it,

which probably means that this is where the climb stops, but it is our climb bet this week, over 2.5, minus 500, and we try to march our way up to 30 consecutive bets. Yeah, the only thing I'd push back on that is I don't like your correlation there between Edwards and the over, because if there is early finish, my guess it would be Edwards with the striking. I don't really see Brady getting the finish here. You know, Edwards very hard to finish.

And then the only other thing, you know, I saw Edwards say it, he came out at 5 a.m., all that stuff, and he was 30%. He didn't look much better than that against Colby. He just fought a old, not that, you know, dangerous Colby Covington. That was the only reason that I think pushed me over to Brady. We've really seen two kind of lackluster performances in a row out of Leon Edwards, not just the one.

Yes, he won the Colby Covington fight, but you didn't watch that fight and think this is the best Walter weight in the world. So that's the one pushback I have more against what Leon had to say than your actual pick here. Yeah, again, as far as Leon winning the fight won't be shocked. I just find it really hard to believe either man's getting a finish early here. Historically not big finishers, either of them in general. Both of them also fairly durable in the run of their career. And so two and a half over minus 500.

it was this or an individual fighter that we will talk about later. I think this is by far the safer bet, which of course means it's going to lose. I understand this entirely. But at this point, I'm just trying. I am now at the stage of the climb where I'm so high up that when I fall and it all goes to shit, I just want to make sure I feel good about the loss, right? Like I don't want to wake up Sunday morning and be like, I can't believe I put stage 13 of the climb on a UFC debutante as a minus 800 favorite

like Josiah Musasa or whatever because I'll feel stupid. But if on Sunday morning you say, hey, the climb bet failed because Sean Brady submitted Leon Edwards in the first 60 seconds, I'd be like, that's fine. I never would have seen that coming. And that's where I'm out with this one. So those are my two pieces of action for this bet, and we can move our way down to the co-main event, which pretty big stakes as well here. Again, not necessarily a title eliminator, but very possibly a title eliminator or something close to it, and a light heavyweight contest between former champion Jan Blahovic and surging Carlos Olberg.

Alberg, not a huge favorite, but a considerable favorite at minus 225. The comeback on Blahovic round plus 185. Also, these odds have changed. I know that more money has come in on Ulberg. That number yesterday's price is not today's price for Carlos Olberg. A little bit higher now. Jan 2-2-1 over his past five coming off that split decision loss to Alex Pereira in July of 2023, so over a year since we have seen him.

Ulberg, seven-fight win streak since that initial loss in the UFC. unanimous decision win of a Vulcan Ozedmere in November to sort of put himself on the precipice of getting a title fight. How are you feeling about this one, Billy? I have a really strong position here. So how are you feeling? Yeah, it's interesting. I almost feel like we're going to do a four-man tournament with these two. And then Jamal Hill and Yuri just to try to get to the winner of the rematch between.

Jamal Hill is fighting Cleo Roundtree. I'm sorry, Jamal Hill and Cleo Row. I was going to say, not Yiri. Yeah, no, he already lost a year. I don't know any of those guys. Throw four or five of these guys together, little four-man tournament, Let Paheda and Enkulayev do it again.

But, yeah, I wish I would have got the minus 2225 on Carlos Oldberg, not seeing those anymore. Janbovich is almost 43, or just turned 42, should give him a little bit of credit. Coming off what was apparently a horrible shoulder injury, the worst shoulder injury since Yeri had the worst shoulder injury ever. I just don't see how he'd be. It's Carlos Olberg at this point in his career.

I know he can grapple a little bit. That has been a struggle for Oldberg. I don't think he's going to be able to do it over three rounds. Could he get a takedown, sure. Oldberg, much more athletic, much faster at the stage of his career. And we have the big cage in London. So I'd still be okay with the Oldberg money line. Other option, if you look at Oldberg in round three or by decision at plus 110,

or even decision straight up at plus 155, I think Oldberg will be a little bit more cautious because he doesn't want to get taken down by Yuri. And Yerri's hard to, I'm sorry, Lehovic. I'm mixing up my life. You're really just trying to get Yeri involved in here. I always want to talk about Yari for Osk, whether it's appropriate or not. But, no, Jan Blahovic is very hard to finish and the takedown threat should keep

Oldberg a little bit more cautious. So I kind of like one of those two bats. I will have the full write-up of this one with where I land. Maybe we can even get a better price on O'Berick by the end of the week. I'll tell you straight up, I wouldn't even hate this for a climb bet. I Carlos Alberg's going to win this fight.

Yeri is, like you said, 42. He's coming off of... You did it. You said Yary that time, too. Oh, did I see? Look, you've already done me doing it now. Yon is 42 coming off over a year-long layoff in an injury. And I'm not 40 years old and I have a lingering

shoulder issue that's not getting better. Granted, I'm not a professional athlete, but I'm also not 42 years old. I don't think shoulder issues, you just get better when you're 40. Coming off a really long layoff, like, credit to Yanbovich, this man should have never been a UFC champion. The fact that he managed to pull that off is remarkable. Sort of his late career run is really something special, but like his career shouldn't be

where it's at much. And now he's 42. It's just not really viable. Granted, Olberg's not like a spring checking. He's 34, but faster, younger, more. active. I'm going to say the jinxiest words possible. If you were a long time listener, No Betz Bar, you

know that you should run. Don't walk run to your bookie and get a money down on Jan Blahovic. But I do not know why this line on, no, get the money down in Jan Blahovic. Because I'm going to jinx this because every time,

Billy, every time I say this phrase, it is almost a hundred percent loss rate. I do not understand. why this line is so low. Like, it should not be as low as this. Even with money coming in, the line getting a little bit higher, Carlos Holberg should be a prohibitive favorite in this one.

And as I say that, that means Jan Blahevich is going to come in. Because it's not like, the best thing Jan does is, like, check kicks and throw counters. And, like, that's not even going to be that good against Carlos Holberg. But it's probably going to be that good. He's probably going to win because I don't get why this line. I saw it at 225 last week.

I immediately hopped on it with actually double the units that I normally put. I very strongly believe Carlos Olberg is going to win this fight, which means, particularly given how my year is going, he is super not going to win this fight, and legendary Polish power will make me sad. So you can see how confident I am in betting at this point because every bet I place is a loser now. And I got another loser that for you on this next fight here,

because the feature bout of the evening is a weird, interesting one. Like, it's not a bad fight. It's also just an odd fight, but name value galore as well-to-weight contests between Gunner, Gunny Nelson taking on Kevin Holland and Gunner is minus 150 betting favorite. Come back on Holland plus 125. Those are actually a little bit old, outdated odds, because more money has come in on Kevin Holland.

He's closer to even money now. Gunner Nelson a little bit lower of a favorite. Gunny, three and two over his past five. those past five fights have happened over like the last five years or whatever he fights once every two years functionally uh and kevin holland he's kevin holland he's one and four in his past five bunch of those are middleweight coming off the submission lost to uh reiner to ritter back in january which prompted him to finally drop back down to welterweight where he's much better billy how you feeling about this sort of wonky welterweight match up here yeah i mean the line is wrong because

we're getting the line that it should be if it was middleweight Kevin Holland in this matchup, but it's not middleweight Kevin Holland. It is the much improved welterweight Kevin Holland, who is going to be big and strong enough and have the range to keep Gunner Nelson away from the takedowns, which is the concern after we saw him lose to Riner de Ritter and Roma deletes A before that, if I'm correct. Gunner Nelson is good from a skill standpoint as grappling is close to those guys, maybe not quite there, but he's 15 pounds smaller, a little bit older, and not the athlete. I think Kevin Holland at plus money is a great bet here.

Again, this is welterweight Kevin Holland we're talking about, not the much worse middleweight Kevin Holland. So I feel the same. I got Kevin Holland at plus 125 before too much money came in. The other side of things. And for the exact same reason, like we are in lockstep on this. Middleweight Kevin Holland is not very good. He can be effective because he's still a quality fighter,

and so he can win some, but it gives it too much size. It's just not really his optimized weight class, whereas Walterweight Kevin Allen much better. Also, just a much better grappler. So it won't be the most surprising thing in the world of Gunner Nelson can shoot takedowns. That has historically been how you beat Kevin Holland. But I don't think he's going to have any of the success of holding Kevin Holland down that way. And mostly, like, we've seen it, Welterweight Holland's a lot better at it. Michael Keesa went over, like, on like six or seven attempts, some, like some big number of attempts.

Mikeeza had no ability to take him down because he has worked on his defensive wrestling. It's just a lot harder to be a good defensive wrestler when you're giving up 15 pounds. So, uh, I like having on a plus money, you know, Gunner Nelson hasn't fought in two years. Granted, this is a bit of a streak for Gunner Nelson. He fought in 2022 in March. He won. He fought in 2023 in March. He won.

skipped a year now it's 2025 in march so he's going to try and just keep fighting once every march and winning fights but i i don't like his chances here uh i think these odds should probably be flipped and kevin holland should be a a slight favorite so i got a plus money feeling pretty decent about it and that's the last bet that i feel good about because the rest of this is kind of a pile speaking of which we moved to a women's straw weight contest where i don't have any bets uh at this moment in time, but I'm strongly considering making a bet. And Billy, maybe you'll talk me into it as Molly McCann takes on Alexia, Thinarra, coming off the contender series.

Thinara was, uh, is making her debut. Whereas McCann, you know where you love her. Meatball Molly, been the O.C for Hotman and now just two and three in her past five fights, uh, lost a decision to Bruna Brazil back in July, hoping to rebound, get back on track. Billy, U.C. debutante versus one of the more popular. fighters in the UFC and the odds have the debutante as the favorite at minus 180. How do you feel about that? Yeah, it's interesting.

They were trying to do the classic every time they come to the O2 at Reno, which is give Molly McCann the worst opponent they can find, which was Estella Nunes, who I believe was 0 and 4 in the UFC. Estella Nunes pulled out. The only person they could find is actually a much tougher test for McCann in Thaynara. I think the odds are about right where they at. One thing I'm looking at if we can get Dynar to cover the spread, the minus three and a half point spread, which would be a 3027 or a finish. If we get that at plus money, I might be interested.

Other than that, I don't know. I'm kind of tired of the Molly McHand stick. She can look really, really good against very bad fighters, but usually looks outclassed against anyone who's UFC level. Yeah, so Dynar was like a pretty decent prospect for me coming off a contender series. I had her rated as sort of that second tier of prospect because she is pretty decent, right? She's got a good grappling game. My is decent athlete. And she certainly got the spirit.

Like she is willing to get in there and scrap. She doesn't have all the tools at this point in time, which is the concern, right? Her striking is like willing but not capable, if that makes sense. Like she's going to, she's happy to get in there and mix it up. She don't really know what she's doing. Much like, you know, all of us have that experience in our personal lives. She has an interprofessional fighting lives. She's willing, not all that able.

The issue is that Molly McCann is really bad at grappling, certainly just at wrestling, and Thinar probably can take that, you can take advantage of that. But do I really want to be backing a UFC debutante at kind of like big odds? No, I sort of think that these odds are about right, frankly. And so I think the lines right. I am interested, or at least flirting with the idea of Thynara by submission plus 425, looks like what that's about, because McCann does have multiple submission loss in her career. Thinara, I think he's going to be able to get takedowns.

I still think that's not that likely, but 425 is kind of a big number. So some level of interest in there. and I also was looking at the over one and a half as part of a parlay, but actually Molly McCann has been getting things done or getting done up really early in first round and four of the last five fights. So I think I'm just going to pass on any of the overs. Maybe I'll take a small sprinkle on the Thinar by submission at 425 just to have some fun. But otherwise, I am passing on this action.

Yeah, that's right. The only thing I feel like she's Thainara is either. going to lose or absolutely dominate, which is why I feel the minus three and a half is kind of a way to get a better price on those options. If she can get takedowns, she's going to control it very easily and probably do it for three rounds. If she tries to strike, she might mess around and get spinning back elbowed. So those are kind of the two options I feel like for Alexa Thiner right now. But as long as you don't get spinning back elbows, you're not going to get knocked out by Molly McCann. So just don't get spinning back elbowed. Seems like a pretty easy thing to avoid doing.

but I suppose we will see. That moves us right on down the line to a lightweight contest between Jordan Vucinich and Chris Duncan, Vucinich, minus 3.45 for the former Cage Warriors champion. Chris Duncan plus 275 thereabouts as your underdog. Lucinich lost his UFC debut against Guam Kutata Ladez, whereas Duncan, three and one in the promotion, coming off a guillotine choke over Belagi Oki back in September. Big price here for the former Cage Warriors champion. So we got a lot of Cage Warriors champions, seven of them on this card, actually, including

Molly McCann, who we just spoke about. So this is, I believe, our second Cage Warriors champion of the evening. And do you think he deserves to be at such a considerable favorite price? No, I think we're overreacting to the Guram fight just a little bit here. We see it a lot of guy makes a debut and kind of overperforms expectations but doesn't win. And all of a sudden, they're a huge favorite, their next fight. that's kind of got me leaning towards Duncan. I'm also interested in Chris Duncan plus 3.5 when that comes up.

I'm assuming we'll still get pretty juicy plus money on that. Most of Vucenich finishes in his career have been submissions. Duncan is a fairly good grappler. He could probably steal around in there somewhere. So looking at one of those two things, I'll have more once we get those markets. But we're bearing the lead here, Jed. There's two men on this card named Chris Duncan.

I feel a gimmick parlay coming on. Buddy, you couldn't be more correct because let me tell you. There are two important facts about this gimmick parlay, which I'm absolutely on. The first is that I actually really like a bet on Chris Duncan as an underdog. I just think you're getting a really big price. I got him in this parlay at plus 300. Like it's a really big price for a guy who, I agree. I think a little bit of overreaction to the Kutataladez fight.

Chris Duncan has certainly not been bad. We saw Garam basically beat Vucinich by grappling. Like he got jawed in that first round, and then the back two, he started to get takedown, started to control the fight. Charles Duncan, I think, can have some success doing that. But more importantly, this is actually the second time the Chris Duncan parlay has existed. The first time, I don't know if you checked this out any of your research, I was an early adopter. It was one of actually maybe one of the first gimmick parlayes I did. on no-bet's bar was the Chris Dungan Parley, because how do you not?

That first time was UFC 286. Do you know where that event was in the O2 Arena? Do you know who headlined that event? Leon Edwards, Camaro Usman, 3, 1 and O'N-O, and all of the same things are happening here. Give me the Chris Duncan Parlay, so I do have him tied up with Christian Leroy-Duncan coming up later on. So I'll just, you know, don't need to bury the lead. When we get to that section, betting on Christian Leroy-Dunkin. don't have a lot to say other than the Chris Duncan parley for life.

One of three parleyes I have going this week. So, easy money. Yeah, and we did not rehearse that, guys. I just, I listened to Jed every week. I knew you can't put two fighters with the exact same name on a card and not expect Jed to parlay, though. There's no chance. And great, at Ghibit parlays are a lot of the reason I'm currently 20, 20 units down this

year. Not quite. 19 and like a half or whatever it is. But just not hitting any of them. but this is like one of the originals had to do it even with the big underdog price and it's fine because Christian Lira Dung

is going to win and then it's just me seeing if Chris Duncan can win and suddenly we're all the way back baby is that parley is like plus 370 or something insane so hell yeah let's run it and our final main card fight of the evening two former

cage warrior champions Nathania Wood and Morgan Shahriye would plus 160 underdog Charié minus 190 betting favorite would. Four and one since bumping up to featherweight in the promotion. Coming off unanimous decision win over Daniel Paneda back in July. Shariah, 2 and 1 in the UFC. Coming off a K.O. win over Gabriel Miranda back in September.

That being said, the lone loss to Chippeempera Mariscal. Many people think he deserved to win that could easily be 3 in O in this promotion. So, honestly, a really fun little featherweight contest here. How you see in this one, Billy? Yeah, not only did many people think he deserved to win the Chepe fight, but Chepe is the toughest opponent. Either of these two have fought recently. So, you know, the strength of schedule is definitely here for Morgan. I'm not going to attempt the French pronunciation.

You nailed it, by the way. That was beautiful. Oh, yeah. You just got a huckalugi in the middle of talking. Yeah, just not in my wheelhouse. I don't think right now. So Morgan, as I'm going to call him, arguably could be 3 and O, gave Chepe the toughest fight Chepa's had in the UFC because he's looked pretty dominant against everyone else.

This price is coming down on Morgan. I believe like 70-ish percent of tapology respondents are on the wood side. So wait as long as you can. The price keeps dropping. Prices? Do you find it minus 155 right now? And continuing to plummet, I talked about that in my luck ratings. I am absolutely going to be betting on the last pirate.

I just don't know when. I'm hoping we get minus 150 might even get a little bit better. Uh, with, at minus 190, I'm not that interested. We're starting to get it dropped down. I'm, I'm pretty open to a minus 160, minus 150 line here. Because I agree. Um, and I like Nathaniel Wood. He is just, he's obviously sort of a tweener between featherweight and bantam weight.

Um, Shari has never really been like Shari's going to be the bigger dude. Certainly the more dangerous fighter, a guy much more capable of turning the lights out quickly, finding a finish out of nowhere. Wood has, I think Wood is overachieving a little bit, and Charier just has a higher ceiling, and so I do like his chances to get done. Debating whether I would just want to go find a bet right now or drop, might give it another day, see if it does drop to that minus 150. I'm not sure how much lower it'll get beyond this, but Nathaniel Wood is a pretty popular

dude, so much more money could certainly be coming in on him in the closing weeks, but I don't mind this at all, even if you wanted to jump in right now around minus 160. Yeah, I would take it. Like if it were Saturday night as we were Saturday morning as we were talking before the fight started, I would take it. I just want to get greedy and see if we can get it even a little bit better. Greed is good. So tells me the movie Wall Street.

Let's move ourselves down to the prelims where things take a turn. main cars a lot of pretty good interesting stuff the prelims there are fights there are seven of them and we will talk about them for as long as they need be talked about let's kick ourselves off with the main event of the prelim car jai herbert another cage warriors champion by the way taking on chris padilla the money in on herbert around a minus 120ish now padilla even money but depending your books, someplace to just have this as a straight pick-um, is very, very closely lined. Herbert, 2-2-1 in his past five coming off that unanimous decision win over Orlando Badoya back in August.

Padilla, 2-0 in the UFC for Taco, Dr. Stoppage over Wrong Zoo back in September. Pretty close to an even-money pick-um here. Do you, does this tempt you to get involved? Because I'll just tell you right now. Nope. I am passing on this one. I actually probably should just do like a gimmick chat GPT bet on this one.

And maybe I will just to do it. But like I don't. Herbert's much bigger, but has a clear defined weakness on the floor. But he's also only lost to just like, look at the dudes Jai Herbert's lost to. They're all hitters. And Taco Bedi is not a hitter.

So like I don't feel confident either side of this one. I will say. Jai Herbert has lost to every opponent who has landed even a single takedown on him in the UFC. It is that drastic of a difference. I think Taco Padilla can probably get there. It's not the same level, but it's almost similar stylistically to his debut against James Yontot, where Taco was a fairly big underdog, if I remember correctly, landed three takedowns, got the submission. I don't know it'll be as easy as Herbert.

I think Herbert is probably a worst striker, but better grappler than, on top all things considered. I think Taco can get there. I'm only going to do it if I can still find plus money, which they're rapidly evaporating, but at least as we're recording, Fianndull has plus 104 on Chris Padilla. Not a super strong feeling,

but I'm leaning that way. And Herbert's getting up there for a lightweight. I believe he is 37, or soon to be 37, which is you know, for lightweight years, that's like being a 42-year-old Polish light heavyweight. Well, while you were speaking, I did

decide to plug this into the old chat GPT and see what it says. And, uh, you know, it, it disagrees. It's chat GPT's prediction is Jai Herbert via TKO round two or unanimous decision, which is interesting, gives a bunch of reasons, not sure, believes he has a striking advantage, height and reach experience at the higher levels. Uh, but if Padilla can turn it into a grappling heavy fight, he has a path to victory, as Herbert struggled against opponents who, who pressure him with wrestling and ground control.

So chat GPT suggests that Jai Herber is going to win. And F it. Well, at this point, what's the matter? I'm just lighting money on fire this year anyway. So maybe chat GPT, which is actually on a really bad streak this year, I think it's like one in four of my chat GPT bets this year. But historically, it's like a 69% picker or something insane. So we're just going to say, screw it and do Jai Herbert.

get him see where I can find him at on odds because chat TPT suggested it it will be that case and so it looks like the best I can probably find is around minus 115 so we'll uh we'll find that lock that in and uh have a little bit of fun on the prelims because the rest of this eh not that much excitement though I am pretty pumped about this next fight billy because it's both a good fight and there's a very very very good prospect competing in it talking about Lonnie Kavanaugh who is taking taking on Felipe Dos Santos in a flyweight contest. Kavanaugh, minus 375 favorite to comeback on Dos Santos, around plus 295, 300 or so.

Kavanaugh, 1 and 0 in the UFC coming off of his unanimous decision win over Jose Ochoa. In November in his debut, he was a contender series prospect and the top-rated contender series prospect from the 2024 season by me. Dos Santos, 1 and 2 in the UFC, a unanimous decision lost to Andre Lima in September. And frankly, good prospect in his own right, who has not been done any favors in his UFC run thus far. That one and two is the lost to Andre Lima, a win over Altamarano. And in his debut on short notice, a lost to Manel cop. So, like, people know my thoughts on Andre Lima, got a win last week.

Really big believer in him as a prospect. Manel Cop is obviously Manel freaking cop. And now he's getting Lonnie Cavanaugh another super hot ship. prospect. No favors for Felipe Dos Santos here, Billy. Well, one favor he did get, arguably, was with the judges when he fought Victor Altamorano. Correct. I can, I'm not mad about it. I'm not going to call a robbery or anything like that. The man got taken down nine times in a three-round fight by Victor Altamorano and still walked away with his hand raised. So that's, that's certainly something. Like you, I'm super high on

Lonnie Kavanaugh. He was probably my favorite prospect from that season as well. I have bet on him every opportunity I have had to bet on him. I'm doing so again and because I'm only on step four of my climb here, he is actually my climb pick at around minus three to one. I'm trying to this thing. Yeah, I'm going to, so basically if I'm getting these minus three hundreds and if I hit a few more, I can kind of catch up to you. You know, we'll have a little race to the top here. Look, plus you want to do it. This is, look, as a veteran climber, let me just let me put you on, let me put you on game here. You want to get a couple of these in too because there's going to be a week where you're like, man, there's a minus 650 that I'd love.

And if you have a couple of these 300, you can feel better about every once in a while, just going a little above that 500 number. And so, like, I honestly really strongly considered just doubling up and going the over two and a half and doing Kavanaugh as my minus 375. The only reason I am not double climbing this week is I am a little shook that a lot of good prospects have been suffering losses lately. I don't think this is sort of the same scenario. I really, really doubt that this will happen to Kavanaugh.

But like, I like Josiah Musasa last week. And out of no, like in a fight that I thought he was looking good and performing well in, suddenly that wonky head kick comes, he gets knocked out and submitted in the same freaking bout, basically. You know, like a couple of Austin Bashy, who was my number two prospect on Contender Series, He had a really tough debut fight, but he also goes out and loses. Peyton Talbot, you know, losing or, like, a lot of good prospects have been suffering some defeats this year. And so I'm just a little, playing it a little closer to the vest,

but I'm pretty sure Lonnie Kavanaugh is going to come out and do great things. Because he's just, he's one of the best fighters from the contender series I've seen. Like, of all the seasons, I think he is one of the better contingency series prospects. Like, this past season, it was him bad. and Kevin Valleos. I was like, yeah, those dudes, guarantee you those dudes are going to be doing some shit for a long time. And y'all got to see Kevin Valleos last time, like last week. I told you all, here it comes.

Lonnie Kavanaugh are doing the same thing. So I totally, totally understand having to be your climb bet. If this was earlier, no questions asked. If I were on step four or five, 100%. But instead, I've got him paired up with one fighter coming down the line in a my boys parlay. And we'll talk about that guy coming up. moving on to, I mean, on paper the third best fight of the weekend, because this is the only fight on paper outside of the main two that features two ranked opponents, a heavyweight

contest between Marchine Tybura. I'm sorry, I mispronounced that. His name is number eight ranked Marcyne Tybura, taking on number 13 ranked Mick Parkin in a pivotal, pivotal heavyweight contest. And Tibera, your betting favorite. Remember minus 1.35th, come back on Parkin plus 115 or so. Tybora, three and two in his past five. TKO win over Janata Denise at UFC 309, because we're at that stage of Tibera's career.

And at heavyweight, where they just plug in contender series dudes and say, maybe you'll be a top 15 heavyweight. And Tibera says, no, sir, you will not. I am the keeper of the keys for the top 15 at heavy. Parkin, he has snuck his way into that top 15 by being 4 and 0 coming in off the contender series and a knockout win over Lucas Breske. Fun fact, Billy, of Mick Parkin's entire career. And that is 10 fights.

Do you know how many of his opponents have Wikipedia pages? I'm going to ask two. Zero is the answer. He is not for a human being with the wiki. Sure doesn't love that. And he is one of the 15 best heavyweights in the world, according to the UFC and most people, because heavyweight is heavyweight. So, Billy, the third best fight of the evening somehow on the prelims, not even the feature prelims, just tucked in the middle of the prelims. How are you feeling about this one?

I'm not nearly as enthusiastic as you are about this fight. Although there's a- There's a hint to irony. Yeah, I got to be honest. Like, my note actually says, I don't really care about this one. The line has flipped to Parkin, who opened his underdog, and is now a favorite. If you believe in following markets, maybe you could bet on Parking. Oh, wow, it has.

If you believe that people are just betting on all the British fighters blindly when they're fighting not British fighters, which is also a logical theory here. I would not follow that. If either guy gets to big plus money, sure, I guess. Other than that, yeah, I don't care. I can't do it with these heavyways. I would rather Tom Aspinall fight both of them than have them fight each other. I think that would be the way to do it is they can alternate rounds or whatever until Aspinall finishes them both. I mean, that would be sick.

Look, I'm just going to level with you. If Marcin Taubura gets to like plus 115 to 120, I'm taking it. Because Mick Parkin is super mid and Marcyne Taubura is like better than people give him credit for. He's not good. but there's a reason he has been a top 10 dude for a long time because he's good enough and this way class is garbage. I don't have any bad now, but with the money shifting, if more money keeps coming in on parking, I'll probably take an underdog stash at a, at Tiburro if he gets to like a bigger

number. But what I did do, and I don't honestly, this is more a gut feel than like looking at the numbers and saying for sure. I'm taking the over This is just the over one and a half Here not even the over two and a half The over one and a half is minus 275 Both like three of Parkins

Four UFC fights have gone to the cards Tybora historically goes to the cards a lot But actually not like as much as maybe He has the you think of It's like 14 and 6 for hitting this over one and a half But this just feels like we're about to get heavy weighty in there You know maybe some takedowns from Tybura this is just going to drag along,

probably ends up going to decision. What's this fight goes to decision line? Let's just, let's root for something terrible. Minus 125 is what I'm seeing right now. Oh, then no. That's not at that price. If I was going to get a plus number,

we'd be interested in that. This is best fight odds though, and they're a little bit funky with some of the prelim ones right now. So that could be way off if you see something better. Fight goes to a decision. I'm not seeing fight goes to decision. Yeah,

I don't think most books have it up. Books I'm looking at. But is that like, yeah, you could convince me if fight goes to a decision would be something a little bit fun there. But so I just have the over one and a half paired with another over one and a half that we'll talk about in a couple of moments for a little pacifist parlay, nothing much, just trying to get some more action down, have a little bit of fun. And my gut just tells me this was going longer. Bring back heavyweight overs to the year 2025. That's what I say. and we move on down the road to yet another Cage Warriors champion.

I think I might have missed one previously, but I don't know, actually. Maybe not. Anyway, this is a really short breakdown from me, Billy, because we're talking about Christian Lever Duncan, taking on Andre Poulyayev. Puyaya is making his debut. He is a contender series guy. I rated him as not very good in Contender Series, and Christian Ler Duncan is, like, pretty decent, and more importantly, his name is Chris Duncan.

and there's another Chris Duncan, and we already went through this, the Chris Duncan Parley exists, plus 372 is the payout, and that's where I'm on. Yeah, this is honestly considering the odds. I think Poliyev is more the risks of the Chris Duncan parley, as weird as that sounds, because he's the heavy underdog here. If this one gets to like plus 500, I might have to bet it against Christian Leroy Duncan. We don't know much about Pollyette.

I did a, I reread my breakdown from the contender series, and it was like, there's not really any full fights. A lot of the guys he fought seem to not exist all that much in reality. And he looked okay on the Contender series. You know, not great. He wasn't horrible.

I don't know what he's good at. His background listed him as some weird version of Sambo that somebody might have made up for his UFC profile. I don't know. Could he grapple the former basketball player? Probably, maybe.

It's plus 500 or so. I'm going to have a little sprinkler. on it. Yeah, that's my breakdown. And I think honestly that that's more than enough of breakdown for us as we move on to a fight that I'm going to give you almost no breakdown on whatsoever

because that's how much I want to be involved in this fight. Sean Abannon, taking on Puzer to Amar, Bannon minus 185 to Amar plus 155. Oh, I guess I should say that this is a women's strawweight contest. Bannon one in the promotion. Split decision went over Alice

Artiline, Artilion. I don't remember how to say that back in July in a fight that she wasn't looking particularly good in before Alice just fell off a cliff. And Tomar, 1 and O in the UFC in a split decision win over Rand of Santos that almost everybody agrees she did not win. And that should tell you my thoughts on this fight, Billy, because one fighter looked real bad in her split decision win, and one fighter looked real bad and shouldn't have got her split decision win. I don't want any, I want no money tied to this fight in any, any possible capacity. So I'm out. Pass entirely for me. So I agree with you from like a moral standpoint for lack of a better term here.

They're both pretty bad, but one of them is as high as plus 163 odds. And that's Puget Tomar. This is a classic fight. It's going to end. You and I sitting at home watching are going to have no idea who won. The judges are just going to be flipping coins. If we are flipping coins, Jed, I want the coin that plays out at 1.6 to 1, not the side of the coin that pays out at less money than you put in.

I'll have a little bit on Pudit Tomar. Also, when these come available, fight to end in a splitter majority decision. You can normally get four or five to one odds. Sometimes they juice them down for these women's fights. So don't play that at like plus 300. But if you get a juicy price on that, this fight has split decision all over it. If there's a split decision, I want the underdog fighter. Look, I stand by my stance that I just don't want money tied to this.

I will agree, if you're going to bet this, don't lay minus 180 odds on Sean Abannon. Just don't do that. You don't need to live that life. You can make better choices, have less stress than to do such a thing. And let's move on to flying under the radar Bannamweight contest here. Nathan Fletcher taking on Cowlyn Lockren Lockron is a

former Cage Warriors champion as well so I think that's up to six or seven now I don't remember Fletcher won as the UFC debut back in September with an arm triangle choke over Ziggy Montes Ramasca who I only remember who that is because the name Ziggy Montes is a fun-ass name

and Cowan is one and two in the promotion coming off unanimous decision lost to fellow Cage Warriors fighter Jake Hadley Apparently, Callan Lockerine is just doing Cage Warriors in the UFC, which is terrific. And, Billy, I don't know if you're aware of this. This is actually a rematch. These two men have met before in the Cage back in their amateur days in the Cage Warriors' Ami series,

where Nathan Fletcher won a unanimous decision back in 2018. So, Billy, how are you feeling about this rematch? You know, last week we saw Roman DeLiidez when his rematch is Callan Lockren. looking to do or going to do the same this Saturday. Yeah, I had no idea this one was a rematch. I did not scroll down to the amateur section when I was looking through these guys' fight history. I don't have strong feelings on this one.

I'm probably going to watch some tape a little bit later in the week. Only interesting thing is most of the topology picks have come in on Fletcher, but the line has moved towards Loughran, which tells you... That is interesting. That is probably the sharp side. You know, both guys are hometown fighters to various extents. So Loughran is getting the sharp money, basically, from what I can tell, reading the market here, which makes me lean that way, but I'd like to watch some tape to confirm that there's something there before just blindly betting it. I don't really have a lot of confidence in either side.

My gut says that maybe Fletcher is a little bit too big of a favorite here for a fight that I anticipate being competitive. but Lockerun is just underwhelmed inside the UFC thus far, and so I don't really want to make a dog bet here, so that's a pass. This is the other over one and a half, though, paired up with the Tebroua Parkin, minus 375 for the one and a half here. Their first fight went to the cards.

Granted, Ami, very different many years ago. Still, just kind of seems like how the cookie's going to crumble in this one as well, that we're probably going to go to the cards, ultimately, and certainly go past that seven-and-a-half minute mark. The two of those pays out around minus 140, something in that neighborhood. So that is my pacifist parley. And that brings us to the final fight. We will discuss the first fight of the evening.

What a cold, cold world we live in, where Guram Kutata Ladez is opening the festivities. Jordan Vucinich, who he defeated is fighting on the main card. Guram Kutateladze, aka Connor Berks, is fighting Kaui Fernandez in the curtain jerker in a lightweight contest. And Garam, big favorite, minus 425, Cowie, plus 330, the comeback. Billy, why they do my boy Garam like this? Because he's not as good as we all want him to be. I've been high on Guram for a while, and when I look at it objectively, I say, why do I do that?

Because he looks so good for moments, but he's two and two in the UFC. He has a split decision win over Mattowsh Gamera. not that he probably didn't deserve. And then he beat Vucenich, who took the fight on, like, three days notice and tired out, but was definitely winning the fight before that. So when you look at his record on the whole, he could easily be O and 4 in the UFC, and I wouldn't bat an eye. I am taking a slight sprinkle on Cowie Fernandez.

I don't think he's great by any stretch, but Gurham seems to have a way, he seems to find a way to lose fights that it seems like he should win, for lack of a better way to put that. Guram is really good at making every fight close, whether it's a fight that he should be winning or a fight he should be losing. It's really good at just mucking it up into a bad, bad place. But it doesn't really matter. Also, like, Gurum definitely is falling victim to, he beat Matush Gamrot in his debut, and everybody knows and knew who Matush Gamr was. And then Gamrot went on to have all his success.

And so it was just like, oh, this guy beat him. He's obviously very good. No, he just kind of won that one fight And maybe shouldn't have even won that one fight And so, you know, it's the Alex Hernandez thing. Alex Hernandez came in and freaking beat Binaldairoush

And it was like, oh, he's really good. Actually, he's not. He's fine. He's just a fine fighter. Guram's that only also with the ability to make people much worse than him look better because sometimes he just does that. None of that matters.

Guram Kutateladze. There's a running bit here. If you're a long-time listener, you know that the previous co-host of this show, Connor Birx, Shout out to CBGC, depending on what you want to call them over there at Yahoo Sports. Dude looks the same. They are Georgia Brethren, and Connor Berks is my Georgia brother for life.

Got to support him. And so I paired him up with my other boy, Lonnie Kavanaugh. Two of them pays out minus 175. That's my final parlay and my final bet on the evening. So I will be texting. I was talking to Connor last week, actually, about a couple of our bets. and I will be texting him on Saturday if he does not defeat Kaui Fernandez because I'll be quite upset with him. And then I'll immediately go to my sports book and place a wager, fairly sizable wager on Lonnie Kavanaugh, if he's no longer tied to my parley.

Billy, that's it. That's UFC London in the books. How are we feeling about this car overall? You're excited about Saturday night? I am pretty excited about it. You know, it feels refreshing. I think our expectations have been properly lowered by some of the time. of these cards. So this one's fun. Big Sean Brady guy, excited to see Lonnie. Feeling pretty good about

the bets and, you know, just hoping the climb keeps climbing. I hope your climb keeps climbing too. I'm not feeling good about my bets because why would I? There's no confidence in my game right now and we are desperately looking for a big winning week because I need like six of them to freaking claw back into things. But we just need one for confidence. But Billy, thank you for joining me to talk about UFC London. And I'm excited because when this is all over, you know what it means, Billy? We're back to Mexico City.

Next week at the Arena CDMX, Brandon Moreno taking on Steve Ursaig, aka Vincienzo, aka Vinnie Siggs, Manuel Torres against Drew Dober. Pretty fun fight. Calvin Gastelam, Joe Pfeer. Raul Roses Jr. returns against Vince Morales. Ronaldo Rodriguez, Kevin Boris.

That'll be a pretty fun one. Eger Shires. Looking at the rest of this card. What else we got? Lupidoinez? Jamar's. Austin Hubbard. Okay, we really start to lose the plot as we went down that list.

But main events, pretty fun one. Love the Mexico City card. You know the crowd's live. Billy, again, thank you for joining me this week. Thanks all of you to listen for listening, especially if you're still listening, despite me sucking at my job and losing all the money in the world. Hopefully we'll get back on track.

And we will see you all next week for UFC, Mexico City. Love y'all. Have holiday magic at Holt Renfrew with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to Lux Beauty and Fragrant Sets. Our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holtz holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com.