MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Backing ‘Big Apple’ Shane Burgos And A Bevy of Underdogs at UFC Long Island

Episode Date: July 13, 2022

The No Bets Barred crew is back to break down UFC Long Island and the main card featherweight bout between Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez. Conner Burks and Jed Meshew are split on the main event, but both guys love Shane "Big Apple" Burgos to remain undefeated in New York, and with Conner heading to the actual event, he decides to place bets on every main card fight. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster,

the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two,

Ghosts in the Machine, available now, only from Audible. We are back for another edition of No Betts Bar, this time for UFC Long Island, Ortega versus Rodriguez. And I have to say, this is probably the most excited. I have been for a UFC non-paper-view

in my entire festival. fandom as a UFC fan because I will be in attendance. It is my first UFC card in person. I cannot wait. I can't wait to break this card down. Jed, how we feeling, man? Man, I'm so excited for you, buddy. Because if it weren't for you, there would not be a ton of excitement for this card.

I got to be honest. I'm not here. In the words of Nick Diaz, I am not here to sell wolf tickets. This is not an event that I would be. Super stoked for. It is great. It's great for them to be out on the road. I love that this ABC card is early in the day.

East coasters, we never get one of these. We'll be cash-en-rolled at like 7 p.m. or something. Have a whole Saturday evening to get wild with it. But those are the things I love about this card. It's not a bad card, and there are one or two fights that I'm really excited about. But I think it's just we've had such a volume. and next week I'm so I the first London car was just so great

that how can you not be absolutely stoked about Tommy has been all Tommy has been all and so this one gotta do it and so this one like last week is a little bit of a I'm just not as excited I don't have that many bets I'm vibe betting all my bets are just from the hip there's no not a lot of research in this one I'm just firing off with what I feel, and we'll see how it goes. But you being there, that's going to elevate us

this week. I'm confident. Yeah, I think so too. It ups the ante. There's a few fights that I am stoked about. Like the entire card as a whole, especially if I was not going to be there, would not be like that hype for this one, especially when we have UFC London, UFC 277 waiting in the wings just after that international fight week a couple weeks ago. But the fact that I'm going to be there, I'm buying into it. There's a couple of of these fights that I'm buying into way more than I typically would. So we're going to bring the energy,

and I'm with you. A lot of vibes bets. I got flyers this week. It's not a thing that I typically do. That's not a thing you do. Okay, you're taking a page of my book. Just throwing darts. Not heavy on these, not heavy on these, but I do have a few flyers. Been excited to this one for a while.

If we want to do a quick recap of last week, Jared Vandera broke my heart, not going for a takedown. I wish you could to just put the entire Titanic music. I mean, you were right. You were right. I said exactly the words, you're banking on Jared Banderah to have good fight IQ.

And this is a man who chose to grapple with the, maybe not the best heavyweight grappler ever, but it's probably the most prolific grappler currently competing in the heavyweight division. Still, you can never trust that man's fight IQ. No, and it was apparent like two and a half minutes into the fight. that he wasn't going to do it. Like, he had no intentions of ever doing it. And I can't even lie. When he got rocked, I was like, good.

Maybe he'll shoot for a desperation take down. Like, maybe he'll shoot for a desperation takedown and give me something here. He did not. And then I also have to apologize to you. I do remember talking you into Ricky Terseos. Another fight. You sure did. You sure did.

That was, that and Jared Vanderera were so miserable to watch. Oh, it was awful, especially when I had a. bet on both of them. Yeah, man. That Tertius won. I don't blame you. I blame me because I didn't have to listen. I chose to listen.

And while he's sitting there and just hollering and missing from a mile away, I was just like, oh, this is a bad choice. I made a bad decision right now and I regret this immediately. Yeah. It was tough. Two judges gave him the first round. I thought that was insanity. The yelling is important. It is, it's a way to steal rounds.

If you or your corner can yell. Valentina Shavchenko. Anthony Chofchenko won that fight because Valentina yelled from the corner. So, you know. And man, it's a shame because I ended up taking a play on Courtney Casey, which was very unfortunate. But I still ended up. I had a good week last week. I ended up about three units.

Oh, love that. Yeah. I love that. Chase Sherman did. You were there when I talked myself. into the three bets on on Kennedy in choku. Oh man. Cashed all three of them, baby.

I-T-D under two and a half squeaker. The under two and a half one, that one was driving me crazy because I was like, stop, stop trying to choke him. You can't choke him. You're not very good at this. Just punch him in the head. Hammer. Just hammer down. The minute, the minute he decided to stop trying to submit him and just elbow him,

finished 10 seconds later. I was like, you could have done this so much sooner, my guy. Yeah. Good weekend. Cashed all three of them. Chase Sherman hit that underdog bet for me. It was a good weekend. The Kennedy Inside the Distance should have just played that straight at like plus 250. I don't know why I had to add Trayshon Gore who embarrassed me fast.

I was like because Kennedy was before it, I was like, we got a plus a thousand parley alive right now. We just need Trayshon Gore to finish this inside the distance. Those hopes and dreams died quickly. You know, but you live and you learn. You had fun. I had fun and I went light. That was the key. I knew it was going to be a bad card for me.

I just didn't like it from the second I saw it. I went back in our Slack and on like June 24th I hit you and I was like I hate the July 9th card. I don't want to bet it. Obviously, we got to bet it. I ended up, I ended down like 1.65. You know, you never want to lose. But like it's... Much worse things have happened than finishing down 1.6.5 on a card like that to,

honestly, from a betting. standpoint, I'm not in love with this UFC Long Island card. Dude, it has so, it's so similar to last week in that most of these fights are really competitively matched. And so it's tough, it's tough for me to see like a lot of inherent value. My bets this week, like I said, they're all vibes. And I've got, I'm basically just firing on a couple of underdogs I like, just without diving too deep into it, just been like, eh, I like that.

dude, I think he's got a real good shot to win this, whatever, because it's really hard to parse value with how tight some of these fights are. I'm with you, dude. Yeah, let's get into some vibey bets. I mean, that's what we can do. I've already got quite a few locked in for UFC London next week. Love that. That I feel pretty good about.

So I'm excited to move on to that. I definitely feel better about some of the bets on the London card for sure. Oh, yeah. But I'm going to the card. We're not going to not bet on that. a card that I will be in attendance for. So let's get into it. Let's start with the main event.

I hope you're just going full dee in. I'm forcing a bet on every main card fight. I at least did that. So that's half the card right there. I support that. Yeah, one of my flyers is forcing a fight, forcing a bet on one of these fights. Let's get it going on. The last time I forced bets, I missed every single one of them.

Yeah, forcing bets always tends to work out well. I think that's written in the, uh, Winning Betters Handbook is force bets as much as you possibly can. Just chase it. Chase it. Yes, chase. Don't do research. Bet emotionally.

We're doing great this week then. All right. Let's dive into it. Main event. Featherweight bout. We got five rounds if it goes that long. Brian Ortega up against Yair Rodriguez. T.C.

Right now sitting at minus 165. Rodriguez coming back at plus 140. Overrunner set at four and a half over minus. minus 105 under 4.5 at minus 1.25. To me, I feel like this is just such a close fight. I don't know how you feel about it. This is a complicated fight for me because I am quite possibly the world's biggest Brian Ortega hater. Oh, a hater. Wow. I thought you were going to say fan. Nope. I got on this hill a long time ago, Because I, less so now, especially after the Chanzang Jung fight, that was really kind of where I probably should have turned the tide. But, you know, I hate forever.

I'm from the South and we know how to hate forever. And that is what I do. And so I watched Brian Ortega's entire rise up the ranks, you know. And he lost, he was losing every single fight until he wasn't. And I cannot, and at the time I could not, and I still have a really hard time wrapping my head around the fact that, like, he's not very good at fighting, except for he's, like, really good at it for very, very small moments. And that makes him really exciting. But like, this is a dude who was getting the crap kicked out of him by Diego Brandow and Clay Gwita. And Cub Swanson was tuning him up on the feats before it happened.

And it's just, it's so hard for me to envision that because the Max Hopsieck. Holloway fight. That was the fight where it all made sense. It was like, yes, you're actually not very good. And that's what happens when you fight someone who doesn't just randomly get tapped out to you or whatever. He just beats the hell out of you. And then the Chancing Junk fight happened. And he beat Korean zombie pillared a post. And, you know, maybe it's because he he rocked zombie in like the first round zombie basically was never the same in the fight. But either way, that was a sensational performance that should have made me say, oh, this dude actually can fight. He's not just a really predatory grappler who's been opportunistic, but at some point,

that luck's going to run out. But I didn't. And I thought Alexander Volcanozky was going to kill him. And then he almost beat Alexander Volcanowski in one of the sweatiest single moments I've ever, like, because I had a big bet on Volk. And so, like, right behind my almost tragic, Valentina Shepchenko all in bet I had a big bet down on Volk

and that whole sequence who the palms were sweaty and so I should believe that this dude is good at fighting because he obviously is but I refuse because I said it once and I'm going to live on that I'm going to die on that hill and so I

think Jaya Rodriguez I don't know if I think it but I'm willing it into existence the man is going to finally do what people have wanted from him forever, as El Pantara is finally going to get himself a title shot. Yeah, so first thing I want to address is I was also on Alexander Volcanovsky, and I was on the over three and a half, and I was on Volk by decision in that fight. Wildly sweaty. Pacing. I did not sit down for like the last three rounds of that fight, pacing

uncontrollably. It was, Volk was blue in the face. I mean, this fight would have never gotten made, but if Volk taps there, like, what do you think they set a Brian Ortega-e-e-a-Rodriguez line at? If he's 16-1-1, the champion of the featherweight division, I feel like it's not getting set it at minus 150. No, it's definitely not. It's certainly a higher line than that. Yeah. I mean, that's just something that I thought about that.

It's just like, wow, there's a timeline out there where Volk tapped and, like, just everything is different at this point. Yeah, but for the grace of God. Yeah, man, like going back through the tape, I kind of felt the same way about you, or it's just like, oh, yeah. Wow, like he was really losing all of these fights until he wasn't losing him. It's like it's kind of like the alt, the anti-Michael Johnson, where Michael Johnson is always winning the fights until he isn't. Yes, the inverse of Michael Johnson is Brian Ortega.

He's always losing the fight until he isn't. And he almost did it with Volcanovsky in that fight. Almost. Yeah, almost. But that only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, as they always say. It's true. The only person he hasn't all hasn't done that to is is Max Holloway. Oh yeah.

Well, yeah, that one he just straight up lost. He wasn't almost ever losing that fight. But yeah, the Holloway fight, it never, never for once. And I'm honestly, I'm taking a lot from this fight. I have a bet on, on, on Yaira Reggie as an underdog at plus 140. I'm taking a lot from essentially, and I know you shouldn't do this because M.M.A. math is not. but they max holloway is a common opponent and they fought that very very differently now sure frankie edgar's a common opponent and those also went very very differently but uh this is

holloway is much more recent for both men and yaya rhodriguez lost to max but he went hammer and tong with max and a truly incredible performance from that dude and i i don't know if i just don't know if or take is going to be able to create the scrambles or or get the takedowns he needs and I think he can certainly compete with Yair on the feet, but I would say that Yair is a more dangerous striker than Brian Ortega, certainly more diverse one. And so that's why I'm taking it. No doubt.

No doubt. Yeah. I mean, it's like when I look at this fight, also just going back through Yair's tape, it like, I feel like he, you know, people love him and he had a great start to his UFC career. But especially after looking at the scorecards, like if he doesn't get that last second knockout of Korean zombie, I mean, we're talking about him losing three of his last. four fights. Like it's...

Oh, yeah. But, I mean, that is also arguably the greatest knockout in the sport. I mean, insane. Insane. Like, I don't know. I haven't come across anyone that had bet on Korean Zombie that night, but I know that hurt so bad. Really important, I just want to say, when you say last second, it is in fact the actual

last second. Statistically, mathematically, everything. Of the fifth round, there were no more seconds when Korean Zambixton. he got put to sleep. Sleep, like he went, like, out, dude, it was... In a fight, he had clearly won. If he had just spent the rest of the round,

like the whole round sprinting away from him, easily would have won. Two judges. Had him up, uh, had him up three one going into the round. I mean, he won the fight. It did not matter at all. And so, yeah, when you talk about what if Fortegett finished, if Ortega had finished, uh, Volkanowski,

he'd finished that, that choke. And if, you know, Chan Sung had run away and won that fight, the line here would be. Minus 500 Ortega? Way different. Yeah. It's crazy, like the minuteness of this. So essentially I'm with you.

I mean, Yai'er, in my opinion, is the better striker. I think that's definitive in this match. Especially after watching that fight against Max Hollowayor for Yaiir. I guess for Ortega, too, the way Ortega struggled so much him. I think Yair is the better striker. I mean, I just feel like it goes. I essentially have two different visions of this fight in my head. I mean, it's either just Yair just outworks him on the feet.

Ortega, he's not that great at getting takedowns. I think his accuracy is like 24%. Like he struggles to get people to the ground. And Yai'ir just out strikes him. Like, he just kind of styles on him across the five rounds. Maybe he even gets like a TKO or a finish later on in the fight. Or Yair is doing well in the exchanges. and then Brian Ortega is losing the fight until he isn't,

and he snatches the neck because he can do it standing. He can do it from the ground. Like he is a diverse, like lethal, offensive grappler, you know, got the BJJ blackout under the Gracie name. It's unbelievable what he does. I have to have a lot of action on the main event, and so I'm going with the ladder that Brian Ortega snatches the neck. I hit you up on Sunday.

I was like the subline's plus 470 for a guy that... That line is not that anymore, by the way. It is not that anymore. I hate to be that guy. You know, like, I just had to take these lines early. I always do it. But, I mean, the Mike Deloitte fight, I know it got overturned after, you know, Brian Ortega got popped and everything.

But, like, he would have four wins by submission in the UFC. That's half his UFC wins. Half of all his wins in his career would be by submission. He's obviously skilled offensive. Grappler. Yeah, I'm just going to go with that. I think it's going to be fun to cheer for live. I got it at a great number. I tried to get you to hop on board. I know you're an Ortega hater. But yeah, I'm thinking he's going to get the neck at some point. Yeah, he's kind of got a long neck. He's got a neck. I know he's never been sub. He's a chocable neck. He's got a chokeable neck.

If they get up in the clinch, if something happens, 25 minutes to go with Brian Ortega. I mean, it almost happened to Volk. I don't think it's going to be like Vandera, where I just just like have to sit there in misery, I think Ortega, an attempt will come at some point. And I like, will at least be able to get out of my seat and be like, oh, my God. Oh, it's about to happen. So yeah, I went with, I added some Brian Ortega money line. I went half a unit on submission at Plus 470. And then I took some real small sprinkles on sub round two, subround three, sub round four. I love, I love the spread of action, even if I won't follow you on any of them. Yeah, I mean, if it misses, let's say Yair just wins by decision.

It's all for not. But I want to go into that main event. However I'm doing on the evening, like, we can still go big. We can still go big here. Yeah, you can still, I love it. I love that energy. So, yeah, man, I think it's a super close fight. I'm not going to be surprised if Yaya out strikes.

I'm like 190 to 130 and just wins a decision. That would honestly be a fun fight to watch, because I bet there would be some crazy scrambles. at some point in it. And that's really all I want this weekend. I just wanted to be a sick card and to have some fun. So differing sides of a very close fight. Differing sides. We will see.

In my head, I probably think Brian Ortega is going to win, but I refuse. Like I said, I'm manifesting the Iierre Rodriguez win. Because the other end of it, too, and we don't need to spend time on this, but I will just note it. For Tatega wins, it really botches the whole feather. the weight division because then it's like is it is it is a is a do you run a rematch does he get a rematch does he go fight does yeah like do they fight if if ortega wins does that mean volk moves up to lightweight something i really don't want to happen at this moment in time uh so it's just way way better for me personally if yair gets the job done and so i am i'm backing him with my money to put

that energy into the world you know put that out into the ether you you emit good energy good vibes come back to you and the best vibes when Brian Ortega friggin loses, man. Wow. The hate really is real. I'm busting out of the T-City bobblehead tomorrow on the MMA hour. So I'm trying to, that's my voodoo doll for this week, my Yaiyra Rodriguez, my anti-Yaiyir voodudud will be my Brian Ortega bobblehead. I mean, that's pretty good.

Maybe I'll find something else to do. I got to up my level because I hear from our good friend, Daryl Hawani, that, Action Bronson's a fan of yours, so I got to step my game. I wish I had some shoes to jump on here, but I'm just rocking some regular, de regular Nike's right now. I mean, that's, you know, but you're rocking a great shirt. No one can see it. Oh, man.

I wish the people could see this. This is a 95 or two. This isn't even last year. Oh, the throwback, the classic. The true championship. The Atlanta Braves. Shout out to the Atlanta Braves. You know, we're gaining on the Mets.

A-Town baby. There's your baseball talk for this edition. of no best part. Okay, let's keep it rolling. To the co-main event. Get no frills delivered. Shop the same in-store prices online and enjoy unlimited delivery with PC Express Pass. Get your first year for $2.50 a month.

Learn more at pceexpress.ca. It is a women's flyweight bout. Michelle Waterson going up against the mandol. Lemos at minus 315. The karate-hadi coming back at plus-2-60. The fight goes the distance minus 200. Fight does not go plus 150. This is another one.

This is my flyer. I took a little sprinkle on it. Michelle Waterson came out by decision at plus 700. Do I think Michelle Waterson is going to win? No. I probably don't. The more I researched it, I really don't think. I just, she's probably...

I like this bet, though. Yeah, yeah. I mean, if she's going to win, I think it's going to be about decision. You know, maybe she throws up a crazy submission and gets it. But, like, it's women's MMA. of what I think is probably going to be a close fight. I mean, Michelle Watterson has all the experience in the world. She only loses to the top of her division. The biggest thing that makes me worry is the top of the division that she was losing to is in the straw weight.

This is happening at flyweight. She used to be an atom weight. Going up against the men of Limos, who used to be a bantam weight, now down at flyweight, she has punching bower. She has knockout capabilities. So that does worry me a little bit. But like I said, it's women's MMA. It's probably going to be a close fight. It's not like if Lemos doesn't get the finish, she usually isn't just like dominating pillar to post and anything can happen. So I thought it was worth a little sprinkle, very small sprinkle to get a little action on the comment. I do like that bet at that price because I agree with your assessment there. I think if that's, if Waterson's going to win, she is not going to get a finish here. I mean, she's a solid grappler, but she's not going to, I think the size difference is going to be.

pretty substantial. And on paper, they don't look that, but I think there is a, that one of them in cage will certainly, uh, certainly appear a much, the much larger human being. I have no action.

I briefly considered an overbet, um, either over one and a half rounds or over two and a half, uh, as a parley piece. Cause I think the most likely outcome, uh, is that this goes,

goes to the cards. Um, taking a lot from limit. motion's fight with Angela Hill. Waterson not the same fighter as Angela Hill, but could also employ a range, kick heavy, karate-ish style, make it a little harder to do things and just sort of get outworked over time. But then I went the other way. Then I was like, I don't know, what's, what should Limosh inside the distance because of

that size advantage? And we haven't seen Waterson get finished since Rosenemian in 2017. but I just don't feel good enough. And I don't, I'm vibe picking. I'm vibe picking and I don't have the vibes right now. I love that. If I get the vibes, if you had sold me some strong vibes,

then I would have been like, all right, let's go. But I just can't. So even though I really, really always want to have action on the main and co-main of fight cards, because if you're not,

I mean, what are we even doing here? Why even watch at that point? Why game? Because you enjoy fighting? No. I enjoy betting. Thank you.

Yeah. I enjoy. making money or losing money while watching fighting. But in this instance, because I don't have the vibes right now, if some vibes happen later, we'll throw something down. But I got nothing here. Yeah. That line was courtesy of Fandle when it first opened up.

It is gone. I'm with you on the vibes. I'm talking like point. I mean, it's still like plus 500 or something right now. Yeah. It's still going to be a big price. Okay. But 700 is a very, that makes, that's almost vibe worthy, you know.

It's one of those ones that it's just like I just need something crazy to happen I need like the first round to be going on and it's like ah she's hanging in there like she's hanging tough like give me something to cheer for I mean it doesn't have to be that crazy just because like I mean Limosch beat

Angela Hill but I'm not entirely certain that she won that splitie and I don't know she did I mean this is a very again Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson not the same fighter but I think Waterson can do a lot of things Hill did that gave Lemo's trouble at points.

Watterson makes a lot of noise, huh? I mean, she is not that level of making a lot of noise, but maybe she'll have learned, you know? Maybe enough to sway the judges? That's important to make a lot of noise. That's what we've established here, day one of No Bet's Bard. Yell. Kia, it's important to Kia.

Calland Chaghan, Decisions. All she does is win them. And Courtney Casey doesn't Kia, and all she does is lose splities. That's all that. That's a fact. That's a fact. All right.

Let's move down the main card. Next up, welterweight bout. Jingleang Lee going up against Muslim Salukov. Salakov at minus 175. Lee at plus 150. Fight goes the distance minus 130. Fight does not go at plus 100. Even money.

So I actually think this is going to be kind of a crazy fight. Salikov, he's got like such versatility on the feet. you know, the Kung Fu King, King of Kung Fu. Going up against Lee and like he's kind of got an iron chin, like he's never been knocked out in his whole career. Plus he can throw bombs. Like I feel like he'll land at some point against Muslim Salikov. Salikov, he's getting older, 38.

Lee, he's not the youngest guy, 34, but I think he might have the better cardio in this one. I think it's going to be interesting, dude. I think it's going to be a close fight. I think it's going to be an exciting fight. I think it's going to be mostly standing. I don't think Salikov's going to be a better. and depend on his wrestling that much. And, yeah, I'm taking a dog shot here on Li Jingliang.

I'm plus 155. I think he can keep it close. Let's throw the Homs out out the window. Prior to that Homsop fight, he was 8 and 2 in his last 10. He's got seven knockouts at the UFC level. Like, he's no just walkover. And he's beaten some good competition, too. Like that Ponsonibio knockout.

If we get a good Li Jian Lee, we can cash a dog ticket on Saturday. I love anytime you're betting dogs I love it because that's that's not where you live so you're going outside your comfort zone and I'm a huge fan of it I can't join you uh I will not be opposing you I did consider it just because Salikov I think what you were saying I think his diversity on the feet um I think he is just a lot of spinning striker he's he's not more active but he uh I think he he's going to be the one landing the cleaner shots both can grapple a touch. I do think it's fairly even,

but I mostly just think Salakov is going to win this fight, but his age concerns me. I mean, there's 38, 37, maybe. Hold on, let me look that up as I. Yeah, he's 38. Just turned 38, actually. Oh, good. And I always used to have a wish.

Yeah, happy birthday. Should we sing it? No, I don't know if they do that in Dagestan. that feels way too happy for Dagestan as far as I know true but yeah um I just don't love betting on a 38 year old dude against the guy who's well too not young but uh these youngling is is a good fighter um and he is more active on the feet uh and there's just too many unknowns i'm taking a pass on it but i don't you know dogger pass here feels like it's the right play right and so if you're trying to get actually

down, I can support you. That's actually the exact map of how this happened. It's, in my opinion, it's the dogger pass fight, and I'm not going to pass because I'm going to be there, and this is a main card fight. Can't pass on the main card. Got to get them down. So I'm rocking with my guy Lee in this one as a dog. Hopefully he can get it done for me.

It should be a fun fight, though. I think it's going to be a pretty exciting one. Let's keep it rolling on the main card. Next up, featherweight bout. We got Matt Schnell going up against. Sumadarji, Sumadarji coming in at minus 260, Schnell coming back at plus 220, over under set at two and a half, under minus 130, over two and a half at even money right now. I do not have a side in this one. I am being a wise gambler and I'm taking the under in a flyweight fight. I usually try and stay away

from that, but Matt Schnell, I mean, he can get wild in these boxing exchanges. He has a susceptible chin. He's been knocked out a few times in the UFC now. I mean, his chin seems like it's shot. Sumadarji, he can crack. 13 of his 16 wins are by K.O. And then on the flip side of that, Schnell, he's slick on the ground. Four of his last seven wins are by submission. Sumadarji, all four losses are by submission. Option one, Sumadarji catches him at some point over the three rounds, knocks him clean out. Option two, Schnell lock something up. Probably in round one, I mean, he is, he comes out aggressively in these fights. And I think, I think we can cash the under two and a half.

I took it at minus 125. Should be a fun fight while at last, though. You've sold me. I didn't have any action, but I love unders. Life's too short. They're just so much more fun to cheer for. Yeah, you, you, I do think this is going to be at high pace, high-octane fight. And you probably are getting a little bit better of a point.

price on the end are just by virtue of them being fly weights, as opposed to looking at how they compete, how things have gone. And if you're telling me I get to bet on Matt Schnell to get knocked out, he's been doing that a lot lately. He has been excellent at getting knocked out. And let's see if he does it one more time. And at this price, minus 125, it's still what it looks like right now. I'll take that and I'll be okay with it. And if you don't want to get knocked out, Matt, lock up a choke. I mean... I mean, that'll also work for us, but I do think the more much more likely outcome here is

as Schnell gets caoed than he taps Sumadhargy. No doubt, no doubt. I just, I like that Schnell's seemingly most common path to victory is Sumadarji's only way he's ever lost, and then vice versa. It feels like Schnell's most likely chance of losing is getting knocked out. and that seems to be what Sumadarji does best, you know, at Flyway. He tends to ends people's night pretty quickly. What's a fight doesn't go the distance prop?

Let's take a look at that. See if that numbers is different. I don't say, like, minus 150? I'll just take the under at that price. I mean, maybe I shouldn't. But yeah. I did do some research, and I want to say that none of their finishes when they either do get finished or finish somebody happened in round three.

which made me feel better about it. I bet the under on Kennedy and it hit, so I'm riding under two and a halfs right now. Just going to keep that train rolling, baby. I know. I don't know why it feels so much better. Like you have 12 and a half minutes to get the finish, but it's like having that extra two and a half,

just knowing like all it just does, don't make the distance, feels so much better. Because it just burns your soul up if the finish comes. If you get a, yeah, yeah, Rodriguez's last second, K.O., it's just, it just eats you up inside. Oh, yeah. Yeah, a lot of people.

People had the under four and a half in Yere Glover. I mean, that was, that's painful. Hey, we might get a chance again. They might be running that one back, baby. Yes, yes. Hopefully they do do that. So, all right, now we're both riding the under two and a half on a flyweight fight. That's plus EV in my book.

Yeah, we're making, making smart decisions right now. Always bet the unders on fly weights. That's on fly weights, both genders, both genders, women's or men's flyweight. always just be betting unders. That's how it goes. Yeah, especially, yeah, especially women's flight. Women's straw weight is where the under is really tend to hit. Okay, let's keep it moving on the main card. Next up, feather weight bout.

Shane Burgos going up against Charles Air Jordane. Burgos coming in at minus 170, Jordan, buying back at plus 145. Fight goes the distance minus 150. Fight does not go at plus 110. Wow, this fight is going to be sick. I know we always talk about fights being sick. arguably the best fight on the card, including the main event, like the most fun fight on the card. I think without a doubt, like after like researching it more, watching a bunch of tape on it,

Burgos number two, Jordane number five in strikes landed per minute in featherweight history. So that's a good point to start. I mean, just like two guys that put on the pressure, they go hard. Also, you know who else is a featherweight? They're behind Max Holloway, who, so it's not their top. Because Max Holloway is a marsher, and he doesn't count towards any of these sort of things. Yes. So, yeah.

No, actually, you know what? You know who's number one? Strikes out for a minute. Shetherweight? Who? Billy Q. Billy Quintio is at number one. He's at like 8.07.

That I'm stunned by that. Yeah. I mean, I guess his fights have not gone the longest, which helps dramatically for strikes per minute thing. Yes, that's a fact. I would have assumed Max run. runaway leader. I mean, Max's runaway leader in like every

strikes line did ever category if you're talking totals. Yeah, it's going to be tough to break those. I feel like a lot of people are going to be on Charles Jordan here. I feel like he's kind of a fan for a favorite. Like he's exciting. Like he like the, well, I can't remember what fight it was where he... You're telling me Shane

Burgos isn't exciting? No, no, Shane Burgos, incredibly exciting. But it feels like, it feels like people love Charles Jordane. I feel like he just brings the heat I just feel like a lot of people are going to be on Charles Ordain which is what I'm trying to say I'm not going to be on Charles Jordain

I'm actually I've actually talked myself into liking Shane Burgos like a decent amount I haven't played him yet because it seems like people are continuing to play Charles Jordane and that Shane number is coming down which actually makes me like it

even more I love to hear that because I'm on Shane Burgos my only concern is just is the youth Jordane Burgos is pretty much a cooked fighter at this point Like he is he is what he is He's not going to develop too much more

Jordan still young enough We could see some steps up in his development Maybe add some new wrinkles Has some new stuff But this fight is going to be awesome But I think I think Burgos just does more than Jordain He is, when you talk about the strikes per minute, Burgos is, let me pull it up right now,

Burgos lands at two and a half-ish, over two more strikes per minute than Jordane does. And when you're talking about a fight like this, unless either one of them makes a big statement with, you know, a big knockdown or something like that, this is just going to be who outworks the other. And we have seen, I mean, Jordane got outworked by Juliano Rosa, that long ago. Like it's, it is a thing that can happen to him. Yes.

I mean, it doesn't happen all that often because that dude, that dude comes for heat, but Burgos is a more proven commodity in my mind. I know what I'm going to get. It's got a, a substantial reach advantage, which I also love in a fight like this.

It's a dollar too. Yeah, he's a little bit bigger. I just, I really like, I don't think Jordane's going to be able to like mix it up with, with anything too different. These are going to be two dudes Chuck and Mitz,

and I think straight up Burgos is going to slightly outpoint him and take over on the card. So I am on Burgos. I've got it at minus 170. Don't hate your idea of waiting, but I just have no idea where the public's going to go on this, so I just took it at minus 170. Yeah, I'm seeing a couple minus 165s out there.

I will jump on it, but yeah, dude, I mean, the height, the reach. I've seen a couple people that are backing Jordane. Talking about the wrestling, I mean, I just don't think that's, I don't know if that's because he got a guillotine last time out, but like he has never landed a takedown in UFC history. And more importantly, Schaenbergos is pretty damn good at stopping takings. Pretty damn good. Let's try the best takedown defense. Statistically, he's excellent. Statistically, he's the best in featherweight history, 91.4%. Like, it's unbelievable.

He is excellent. I just don't see a world where he gets him down unless he's made a huge step where he's, starts shooting takedowns and he can get a guy like Shane Burgos down. Even then that seems really difficult. Like, Makron Amirconi, who's a pretty decent wrestler, he got some takedowns on Burgos, but he shot like 400 times or some astronomically high, high number there. And I just don't see Jordane doing that yet. So I think it's just going to stay standing for 15 minutes, chuck them.

I think he's going to use the volume more and going back and watching the tape, like, Burgos works the body well, dude. Love the body work. Like, he works it well, and I think sometimes Jordane can be susceptible to that, and I think he's going to capitalize off that. Plus, well, firstly, the experience level as well. I just think Burgos has just fought so – like the talent differential in opponents. I think Burgos is much higher, which I think benefits him there as well.

And then a quick statistic. Shout out the Proudy MMA on Twitter, give him a follow. Great gambler. ever met him. Shane Burgos, UFC record. In New York City? Six and now. Outside New York? Oh, wow. One in three.

Now that, that's the kind of statistic. I want to bet. I mean, look. Big Apple Burgos, I'm saying it now. Big Apple Burgos is a mythical creature. I mean, I love this. I will throw a question. Just a little baby question.

How? I'm here to answer it. This is on Long Island. I'm not a New York guy That's not NYC, is it? It is an NYC. I misspoke. That's on me. Just New York in general.

Oh, okay. Oh, because he has the Buffalo card or whatever, right? Something like that. From 210 or whatever, yeah. And I just pulled up as also this man just in the Northeast is just doing great. Because all of his, all the CFFC stuff, obviously that's in New Jersey. fought in Pennsylvania, Albany, New York. Yeah, so his losses were in Boston,

Vegas, and Houston. Just, yeah, this man just can't fight out of New York. It's not comfortable there, dude. He's from the Bronx. He wants to be close to home. Have mama's cooking. Get the coffees in the morning. The bagels, the bacon, egg, and cheese.

Have that right there. That's how he starts his fight there. A Houston bagel? You expect this man to have a Houston bagel and then go fistfight? Come on. Come on, dude. Big Apple burgo. Bronx Burgos.

I'm with them. I'm going to play them. I love this stat so much. I love it. I feel so much better about my bet right now. I was on the fence about Burgos, and then I saw that, and I'm thinking of just unloading the clip on them. This is vibes all day right now.

This is the best bet on the card. Yeah, shout out to again, Prodigy MMA. That's who I saw the tweet from. Though I think I did see Burgos on Instagram. Hurricane Shane. I think he did say something like time to go. was 7 and no in New York and I like just like I didn't really register

it like I was just like whatever dude sure like I didn't realize it was like in the UFC he is constantly fighting in New York and he is constantly winning I'm gonna have goosebumps when he's coming out I mean that place is going to be electric yes

let's move on let's move on to the last fight on the main card it is a women's flyweight bout Lauren Murphy going up against Misha Tate Misha Tate right now sitting at minus 205. Lauren Murphy at plus 175. Yeah, I took Misha Tate at minus 164.

Fight really does not do that much for me. I just think she's more experienced. She's the younger fighter here. She's got the better ground game. She might even have the better striking game. If the weight cut goes well for her, you know, she's moving down from Bannonweight. If the weight cut goes well, I really think, you know,

she's probably the stronger fighter too. She's coming off a super competitive fight with Kettlin Vieira. You know, she lost, but I thought she looked, she made a decent account of herself. I think she's got it covered. I think she gets it done. I'm with you. Before I get into that, let me add one final thing to our previous conversation. Oh, well, I'm sorry.

I just looked at, no, I just looked this up. I didn't realize it until just this moment. Charles Dordane has fought in New York before. Lost to Desmond Green. Shut up. Oh and one? Oh, and one in New York, baby. So all of the numbers are riding with our boy, Shane Burgos.

back to the topic at hand though Misha Tate I mean I'm sorry but yeah I love this Pergos bet I can't get over it's great I'm probably going to put more on it just because because this is this is how you bet in my book just nothing but smart choices being made as for the final fight on the main card

or the first fight on the main card I suppose Misha Tate's going to win this I've been saying this for months this is she's going to win this fight she's going to go then fight Valentin Shovchenko she's going to get absolutely murdered by Valentinio Chivchenko and Shavchenko will have beaten all of the humans that there are possibly to beat in and around her. God, Misha Tate Valentina Shvchenko.

Yeah. Can we just make that an Apex fight night? I mean, it's going to be the co-main event to a paper view. And that's okay. Oh, for sure, no doubt, no doubt. Yeah, that's just where we live. And that's all right. Because that'll be a big, I mean, Misha Tate theoretically a big star could theoretically make that a main event.

Shout out to Big Brother. shout out to uh and one championship you know VP of one championship way to go but yeah I uh I feel disrespect for Lauren Murphy and it's not in the way I'm disrespect for to Brian Ortega because I don't care because I don't like Brian Ortega so I'm happy to disrespect him uh Lauren Murphy God knows she tries she is a trier she absolutely deserved to fight for the title at the time she did despite me knowing with every fiber of my being that there was she had the least possible chance of any human being alive to be Valchish Rchenko.

I was on that Brian Ortega, a Wokonovsky car. Yeah. And it was just she, she is a tremendous overachiever because she is wildly unathletic and that is a huge hamstring in any, any athletic endeavor, frankly, but certainly in fighting at the top levels, you rarely see elite fighters who aren't at least solid athletes. And Misha is a much better athlete. I think she's obviously a better grappler. She should be bigger, should be stronger.

Theoretically, is at least an even striker, but it's not like Lauren Murphy as a striker is something to be afraid of or whatever. My big questions are just how Misha's going to look. It's her first time making the 125. I think it'll be fine. like she should be able to make it without too big issue, but that is always a question mark. But mostly I think she's going to be able to tackle Lauren Murphy,

take her down, be competitive on the feet, and she sort of grind out a win. I don't hate a Tate straight bet or using that as a parley piece, but I just decided to go Tate by decision because I think Lauren Murphy is, Lauren Murphy has proven to be very durable. Valentina Shepchenko is obviously Valentina Shepchenko, but she didn't get her out of there until the fourth round.

I was going to say if she can make it three rounds with Valentina, I think she can make it through with Tate. The other, that's literally the only stoppage she has in her career. The fourth round against Valentina Shubchenko. Wow. What's the line on decision? I got it at plus 110. Wow. It's not like great, but it is plus money.

I mean, yeah. I regret not doing that. It wouldn't stun me if Tate managed to find her way to the back and choke her out. done it to better fighters. Sure. But, you know, at that price, and I think it's by far, Tate's the most likely way to win is just grinding out a decision. So that's my good. Plus one 10.

I feel a little guilty for just taking the straight, but I wish I had the decision as well. But I will not be putting any more money on Misha Tate, Lauren Murphy's right. You know what? That's a reasonable choice. I think that is the first one we've made all show. I don't think I like that. I think that's against what we're trying to do this afternoon. But, you know, you got to make the bets that are going to make you.

you feel comfortable going at Long Island. Exactly. Yeah, we are going to Long Island. We'll be in old L.I. On Saturday, it's going to be a great time. So that is the main card. That is all the fights on the main card. Just a quick programming break here.

You mentioned something about one championship and one championship. Misha Tate, former VP of One Championship. Yes. When is One Championship going to grow up? up and start giving us some lines. Oh, who can possibly say? Like Rainer to Ritter fights next week, the Dutch night, and I want to bet on him. You all, oh, man, I'm so glad to hear you say that because let me tell you, as the chief

Hiniade a hitter fan in the world, I know that that's not how you pronounce his name, but I say it every single time because it infuriates A.K. Lee to no end, as the biggest Hennie A to Hedder fan alive. I love him. I want to bet on him too. The man is absolutely going to put in that work next week against Vitali Big Dash. And in a fight that's honestly pretty damn good, especially as far as one goes. So yeah, I'm with you, man.

Like, I just feel like a more special connection when I win money on a fighter. Like, it just feels, you know, it feels like a bond's been created. And that's what I want to do with the Ritter. And, like, Demetri's Johnson fights next month. Like, Shatri, I know you're listening right now. You're definitely listening. Let's get some lines up, man. For sure.

Shatry, you owe me because let's be extremely clear, MMAfighting.com, greatest website in the whole damn world. Isn't debatable either. No debate. Henni or DeHitter is ranked in our middleweight rankings, and that is almost exclusively because I can. I put him there and then I started campaigning and then everybody else. Because, you know, I know a billion people watch it, but all those billion people mostly don't exist on this side of the globe.

Not a ton of people are watching it. And I was like, you guys got to go watch this dude, the Dutch night. He's the man. He just tackles, grapples people all over the place. Can't stop it, won't stop it. And everybody came around. And now he is ranked Sir Chotry, you owe me because I got your boy on the, on the, cards. I got him. I'm boosting that profile. So give us some lines, baby. Come on, Shotree.

Just, you don't even have to do the whole card. Give us the main card. Just give us the championship fights. Oh, yeah, I don't care about the undercard if we're being honest. No, no, this is why these are great. The Friday morning, you know, I think the whole card starts at like six. By the time we get to Derritter, it's like, you know, 10 o'clock our time. It's a great way to start your Friday morning. Sure. I mean, it's not a bad way. certainly. All right. Let's dive back into it.

The actual big show here. Yeah. Shout out to one championship. I think it's one championship 159. Yes. And Randy into Redder. He fights next week to move to 16 and 0. The Dutch Knight.

UFC one day maybe? I mean, I hope so. Dude's competing in two different weight classes, looking nigh untouchable. And I, you know, look, I mean, you see Andre Muniz in the UFC and what he's doing, any of the hitters is, I mean, that kind, maybe not a different style of grappling,

but that kind of a guy who can really be a problem. Plus, you know, he's Dutch. Dutch people can kickbox. That's just what they do. That's what they do. I have a dream now of us, you know, UFC Amsterdam, no bets barred live on the riverwalk, drinking some Heineken's.

Oh. Placing a bet on the Ritter to. to become the middleweight champion of the world. That is, if that happens, I retire the next day because I will have peaked. You may have heard of the sex cult nexium and the famous actress who went to prison for her involvement, Alison Mack. But she's never told her side of the story until now. People assume that I'm like, this pervert.

My name is Natalie Robamed, and in my new podcast, I talked to Allison to try to understand how she went from TV actor to cult member. How do you feel about having been involved in bringing sexual trauma to other people? I don't even know how to answer that question. Allison After Nexium from CBC's Uncover is available now on Spotify. I'm looking forward to it. All right. Let's actually get back to the matter at hand here with UFC Long Island.

On to the prelims. Actually disgusting. It actually disgusted me into my core that this is on the prelims. It is a bantam way about. It is Ricky Simone going up against Jack Shore. Jack Shore right now sitting at minus 164. Ricky Simone coming back at plus 140. Fight goes the distance, minus 2.15.

Fight does not go plus 175. I am unbelievably hyped for this fight. The match match match here has did a fantastic job. I think this is a very big test for Jack Shore, 16 and 0. 11 and O as an amateur. Dude's been fighting for a decade. Has not lost, has not faced a loss yet. Going up against Ricky Simone is obviously incredibly tough competition.

And instead of putting Jack Shore, you know, maybe on the main card of London, here he is sitting on the prelims for... It's a prelim main event, baby. For Long Island. Prelim main event. Who needs him to be on ABC when you've got a prospect like this? Just put him on ESPN Plus, hide him, it's fine. Who needs to see Jack Shore when you've got Mishitae, Lauren Murphy, coming up right after? Mishitae is going to fight for a title, so I understand that one.

But like, Machel, Sue Maderji? I was about to say. That's the fight that I was looking at. That fight is the fight that goes away, I think pretty obviously, to me. I'm looking forward to this more than the Li Jingling Muslim Salikov fight. Yeah, but I understand why that fight would be a main card fight. Yeah. I guess, I mean, I think the UFC still has Li Jiangling ranked.

Yeah, they do at 14th. Yeah, so that's, I mean, that's fair. And Muslim Salikov, if he goes in there and wins his fight, he starts getting a baby. B push, you know, just a little bit of that because he'll be in the rankings. He's a little older, so they're not going to rocket him to the moon because they've got Rachmanov, Shafkat Rachmanov and

Hamzat. I know I was going to say, he's going to turn 40 by the time he fights again. Yeah, they've got those guys, they got Sean Brady, but you give him just, you let him climb and see how far he can go because he probably doesn't ever get to a title fight, but he can move in, he could with the right matchups, especially at

Welterweight moving top 10. That would be crazy to see Muslim Salakov. I mean, at his Anyway, yeah, so this is my first of two strictly emotional bets on the card. Oh, I'm glad to hear that. Yeah, I'm a Jack Shore fan. I support Jack Shore. Pretty much parlayed him up on any time I got the opportunity on his, you know, ascension to the UFC to this point. Absolutely was just in love the team of a leave fight, had him as a dog there.

So, yeah, I mean, it happened live on the MMA or when the odds dropped. I said, as soon as the odds drop, I don't care what it is. I'm taking Jack Shore or whatever. I took him at minus 110. I thought that's where this fight should be priced. I really do think it's just a coin flip. And I guess I can say this now because the show will come out after the MMR. I got a one-of-one T-shirt.

I made a design for Jack Shore and got a custom T-shirt made. This is my guy for this card. So I will have a custom T-shirt for old Jay Shore. I think it's going to be an unbelievable fight between two great prospects, super high level. and I will just say I'm not going to be shocked if I have to do get the sand rates like if you tell me right now

you're like Ricky Simone plus 140 think it's great value that's what I'm going with I would be like I think that's a good bet well that's convenient because that's exactly what I'm about I'm telling you

I don't blame you at all dude this was an emotional bet I knew I was going to do it I can't wait to get to the second one I said I was glad to hear it because when you said it was emotional I was like cool there's not something in the tape

because I did not watch tape on this one I didn't watch one second. This is strictly, I've seen both of these dudes in all their fights. This was strictly looking at it and going, yeah, that's a 50-50 fight. I don't really know why Ricky Simone's plus 140. 50-50 as hell, bro. They hit it with plus 110. Why didn't it just stay there?

I guess it's undefeated. The action came on Jack Shorke's undefeated. But that was why I was like, I mean, Ricky Simone, a lot of value there. This is a dude who had some setbacks, but I think he's putting it all together. He looked unbelievable against Hafeuil of Suns out in his last fight. Put the wood to Brian Kelleher before that. This is, I think he's, think, if the Uriah Faber thing doesn't happen, I think we look at Ricky Smellar a lot different. And so, yeah, I just saw him at plus 140 and was like, that number seems wrong.

I'm going to take it. So I won't it all be shocked if Jack Shore wins because undefeat dude doesn't know how to lose yet. Never done it. It is an alien thought to him to not win a fist fight, but, you know. Like that's so crazy. Like he is 27 years old and he has been fighting since he was 17. Like pretty often, too. Like, he is fighting.

Like, in 2015, he fought like six times. I mean, that's, that is, um. Seven times. He was just walking out there. And that word is a lot. That made us fought a lot. But like, yeah, because, dude, that's the thing. He has been fighting since 2012 as an amateur

Undefeated as an amateur This dude He does not understand losses And sometimes that's all it takes Like sometimes you have that level of confidence And that just carries you through And I want it all be shocked But I took the value bet on Simone

I don't blame you one bit Whoever you end up on this side of this I will not blame you I think it's going to be a great fight I think we're all going to enjoy it And yeah Let's have some fun. It should be a fantastic fight.

I'm very much looking forward to it. I hope it goes through the decision. I hope it's a close decision. And I just, yeah. I sort of think it will. I mean, I think either way this goes, this is going to be a really tight fight. Oh, I think so, too.

I think we can see some pretty crazy grappling exchanges as well. I think there's some sick scrambles. At least that's what I'm hoping for. Yeah, listen to us. This is deep level. Six scrambles. I'm down for it. Love six scrambles.

All right. So we are on opposite sides. He's playing value. I'm playing with my emotions. We'll see which works out for the better. Let's keep it rolling. Next up, it is a featherweight bout. Bill Algeo going up against Herbert Burns. Bill Algeo right now, minus 180. Herbert Burns plus 155. Other than Herbert Burns getting a first round submission, I just don't see a lot of avenues for him getting a victory in this fight. okay um my i'm going to go ahead and say that i have action here and my action is on herbert burns as the underdog um how's he gets it done uh he tackles bill algio a bunch uh is it maybe maybe he can't get the submission because he does have a number of them on his record obviously oh god yeah you you know the man's name um i don't know if you know this gilbert burns his his brother is the other bert

I love the parents You got to end it with Bert Absolutely phenomenal grappler And Herbert Burns You know Decorated grappler Maybe not as good as his brother But still

Dude can grapple Dude has proven to be a pretty effective Takedown artist I mean his takedown accuracy Is 83% inside the UFC Big number Big number Bill Aljoo I know

I think was Wrestled in high school But he has not been the best defensive wrestler in his MMA career. And I think on the feet, Herbert Burns can throw with power, but he is. Dude's not a striker. I mean, the name and Rakeo is an anomaly. I was actually there for that, that event was in Raleigh and I was covering it.

Oh, wow. It was super weird. I was like, you know your brother's never knocked anyone out and you just did it in your UFC debut? And his brother was right behind him. He was like, I know that's kind of BS. I was like, I mean, performance of the. night buddy uh but that's not his thing he is going to tackle and grapple and i i think he's got

i don't know if he's got a good shot but a plus 170 uh given algio's issues with takedowns i'm i'm going to take the the play on it there's again none of my bets are taped none of my bets these are all just that feels like there's some value there i'm going to shoot from the hip and see what happens and this is also my last bet on the card so anything else from here you have to talk me into because that's where I'm at. I actually have one more bet on the card. It is, it is,

we'll get to that in a second. Yeah, I mean, it's, I actually, I can't decide on this fight. Like, I feel like Bill Algeo is a black belt. Like, he hasn't been finished in eight years. Herbert Berna hasn't won by decision in eight years. I feel

like he avoids the submissions and, like, starts to dominate, but it's also like, I don't know if I want to bet on Bill Algeo. To be fair, Bill Algeo hasn't lost to a guy not named Ricardo since 2019 when he lost to Brendan Levin. Because these other losses were Ricardo Ramos and Ricardo Lamos. So, Herbert Burns, to my knowledge, is not named Herbert Ricardo Burns. But I guess I can look that up for you.

No, no Ricardo in the name. So it might be okay. Yeah, I just like, I think I might be kind of. scared of Herbert Burns. Plus, I think the number's dropping. I think I saw Bill Algeo at minus 160 and, like, you know, he's, he's far down. Yeah. That might just be a pass fight for me.

It's not a main card fight. You don't have to feel compelled. Yeah, well, I wanted to- 200 on draft kings right now. I was about to say I wanted to discuss it with you. Yeah, I can't play. No, I'm not playing Bill Algeo at minus 200. I'm not even really sure why he's getting steamed that way.

That's the thing. I don't understand. Like, I just, when I looked at, I was like, I have no idea why Bill Algeo is a minus 200 favorite. That seems very wrong. I know. Wasn't Bill Algeo just like a plus 250 against Billy Q? Like, I mean, I know it's Billy Q and Herbert Burns the difference there. People love Billy Q, you know?

Like, man, that's a big swing. I think I'm just going to stay away from this one. I was kind of hoping you'd be like, yeah, Bill Elgio is going to kick his ass. And I'd be like, yeah, he is. And I could just hop on board with you. But the fact that you're playing Herbert Burns, I'm going to just stay away from. from this one then. Oh, well, I really hope Herbert does it, so I effectively scared you off a bad bet

because Bell Alggio just stuffed takedowns and tunes up Herbert Burns on the feet. I'm going to feel like a bad person. I think on the feet he's going to tee him up. Oh, I think so for sure. I think there's a pretty big discrepancy on the feet. But, like you said, 83% takedown accuracy. It's a lot. Bill Algeo got, like, chain wrestled by Ricardo.

Almost. So here, let me, let me tell you a little story that I learned from the Wikipedia. And because I learned a thing from reading the Wikipedia. And I, I interpreted it in this way. And it is Bill Aljo started wrestling in high school. He started his wrestling career, oh, and 14. Are you serious? He then, that's in high school.

And then four, that was freshman year, high school. Four years later, he became an all-state wrestler and captain of the wrestling team. that is from Wikipedia, I have no idea how accurate or whatever that is. This is a Michael Jordan Ness story here. My point being, if you start O-N-14, you probably aren't naturally that good at it. That just means he worked really hard and got better. So I'm just going to go ahead and say that even if he got better, he's not very good at it naturally. And Herbert Burns is going to be able to secure those takedowns, work that ground game.

I do think Bill Aljo is a black belt. I think that dude is very competent on the floor, but I don't know if it's going out on a huge limb to say that Herbert Burns is a better grappler. So I'm back in that and the plus money, and that's why I feel the way I feel. Man, actually, I'm completely off of it now. I'm actually, I feel better about this.

Five fights, Bill Algeo has been taken down 22 times. Yeah, his takedown defense is, like I said, it's not very... It's 55%, but, like, like, Like, that means they've, that's like 22 or 45 he's been taken down on. Yeah, now he has been pretty good at getting up for being honest. He is good at getting up. I did see that.

But my sort of read here is just that Herbert Burns, if he gets the takedowns, it's going to be a little bit more effective at using those as offensive weapons as opposed to holding to a position to then try and, because, you know, Ricardo Lama's dude can submit people, but he's trying to take you down to then establish position and hit you, whereas Herbert Burns is going to take you down and look to create a scramble, find a way to an attacking position there. Plus if like, if I'm there and I laid heavy chalk on Bill Algeo,

and it's the first round, and I can just see it on the Jumbotron that Herbert Burns has something locked in, I will feel just like squeamish. It'll be tough to watch. I'm passing. I love it. Good smart bet. I'm passing.

You know what I'm not passing on? this next fight, the last fight that we're going to get into, it is a light heavyweight bout. It is Dustin Jacoby against Da Anjong. Right now Dustin and Kobe's sitting at minus 130. The Anjong at plus 110. Da'anjong seems to be the darling dog of the week for everyone. You know, great bettors, they don't have biases. They, you know, they aren't guided by their emotions. You know, they use math, they use reason, they use logic when they make their bets. And that's how they're profitable. The good news is, I am not a great better.

And so what I am going to do is ride with my boy. Friends don't let friends not bet on their friends. New York Rick, huge Dustin Jacoby fan, has met him, personal relationship with him, loves the guy. Can't speak highly of him enough. When the lines came out, I looked at Rick. I was like, don't you love Justin Jacoby? And he was just like, love him.

Great guy. I was like betting on him. That's all I needed to hear. I'm betting on Dustin Jacoby. I actually have not placed a bet yet because of Don Jung being the darling dog. I'm doing the Burgos-esque thing here, hoping I can get a better line. We'll see if it plays out for me. but I'm riding with New York Rick's guy, who is now my guy.

Dustin Jacobi. I love the support. I cannot follow you. I would be honest. No love for New York, Rick. No, the reason I can't follow you is because I think Don Jong is going to win. And the reason I'm not betting down drunk is because of the love for Ricky. Love Ricky.

All right, okay, all right. I'll give you that. I'll give you that. You're staying away out of your love. Yeah, not taking the underdog bet because I don't want to cash on his sadness. How could you? How could you? Nobody wants to profit off your own friend's sadness unless it's like a personal bet on the golf course.

I will absolutely profit off my friend's sadness if I take their money, but not by watching a third party do something. That just isn't right. I'd want to do it myself. Yeah, I got it if it was me. If I was fighting Dustin Jacoby, one, I would not win. But if I was fighting. Oh, God, no. then I would want, you know, to bet on myself in that.

But that's not what's going to happen here. So I do think Don John is going to win. I understand why he's a darling dog. I would have liked the price a little bit better. But in order to actually turn out, it didn't matter because I'm not betting this one at all out of my love for Ricky. I love that. I love that you're staying away from a plus money. Some people have called it a lock.

We're hearing lock for Don John. Lock is crazy. I'm just kidding. I made that up. I'm trying to reverse jinx myself here. People are saying that the Hanjung is a lock. Not only am I going to be in Long Island on Saturday, I'm also going to be on Jacoby Island.

I will be supporting Dustin Jacoby in this fight. Emotional bet. You don't have to tell me. If you do tell me, tell me with the utmost caution, and we can all blame it on New York, Rick. If Jacoby is 1 in New York in New York. If we're not talking about it's kicking. If we're not talking about his kickboxing, then he's two and one.

Oh. You know. But one in no in New York. I'm going to spend the rest of my week looking for New York bets now. I mean, I don't know if you're going to find one that tops that Shane Burgess one. There's no chance you find that one. It's such a beautiful. Some of these other ones.

Don Jung, never fought in New York before. I don't know. Maybe the big city is too much for him, you know. Long Island's going to be a little too much pressure for our guy. Don't. It could be. Who can say? We're going to find out.

On top of all, everything that we've just talked about, I did a little nasty prop parlay. I took Shore Simone over one and a half. Tate Murphy over one and a half. Ortega Rodriguez over one and a half. Those three parlayed up, minus 111. Hey, solid. I briefly considered a parlay of some really dumb things. And I was just like, nope, I have enough action down, especially given I'm shooting from the hip.

I'm just going to run it. Yeah, this is one of the first weeks in a – maybe since I started giving outpicks between the MMR and this, that I just, like, didn't really love a parlay. Like, I feel like I always find one that I fall in love with. I just – like, I thought about Punisoriano. I was like, do I want to trust Punisoriano at minus 270? You do not. Like, yeah. That is a hard you do not.

Yeah, so everyone else I can just play single. I mean, there's probably some people out there. Maybe some people listening to this that are like riding with like an Algio Soriano Salikov-Lemos parlay. I mean, it's going to be sweaty. Godspeed. That is, that's a parlay I would feel horrendous about. But maybe it crashes.

Things happen like that. Oh, yes. It's like it absolutely cash. What do I know? Oh, I know nothing. I try to tell people that. When people are like, you're a capper, you're a tout. I'm like, no, I'm a degenerate gambler.

I just happen to have a platform where I can give out some picks. Yeah, this is, yeah, this is not my profession. No. Certainly. I'm just out here doing the damn thing. And I think we've done the damn thing. I think that's it. We've done the damn thing for sure.

My picks for this weekend. Strapping for the main event. Brian Ortega, Brian Ortega by sub. Brian Ortega's sub round two, round three, round four. Michelle Waterson, by decision. Lee Jing Liang at Dog Money. Matt Schnell, Sumadarji at under two and a half.

Shane Burgos. TBD on the line, I'm going to grab on that. Misha Tate. Jack Shore, emotional bet. Bill Al-No, I'm not taking Bill Algeo. I thought about taking Bill Al-OGO. There you go. My good friend Jed has walked me off the ledge.

And then Dustin Jacoby, shout out to New York, Rick. We're going to do this in Long Island on Jacoby Island. And then the nasty prop parlay, sure, Simone, over one and a half. Tatea Rodriguez, over one and a half. Retago Rodriguez, over one and a half. That pays out of minus 111. I'm on Yaya Rodriguez, plus 140. Connor, Connor, Connor, Connor, Connor, Connor, Convincer, Convinced me to do now Sumergerj under two and a half.

I just wanted to say that so many times because the last time you convinced me. Have I given you a pick that one yet? I think I'm O for two. I'm not, I don't think you have. And so, but this is where we break, we turn that energy around. We break that street. Yes. Yes. When he get that early finish. First round early. Yeah. And I'm going to sweat. No sweats. No sweats. Cash bets. Shane Burgos at minus 170, Misha Tate by Decision at plus 110, Ricky Simone at plus 140,

and then Herbert Burns at plus 170. So like I said at the top, taking a lot of shots on some dogs, and then Shane Burgos, because, you know, big, city Burgos, big Apple Burgos. Let's go. How many names?

Bronx Burgos. Like, how many names can we think of for our guy before Saturday? Shane Burgos? I think it's my favorite bet on the whole card. He is now. He was not. I mean, I still like the bet, but he was not until we got in here.

And you told me about Big Apple Burgos. There's going to be some upset people listening to this. I know there are many people on Charles Jordane. He's a fan favorite. He's exciting. They can be upset. Oh, I hope they're upset. I need to talk to Shane Burgos because Hurricane Shane is a perfectly fine name.

Don't get me wrong. But Big Apple Burgos just feels like a better one. Like, can we, can we Bobby? knuckles this nickname away from him. Nobody needs him to be Hurricane Shane. I need him to be Big Apple Burgos right now. Bronx Burgos. Yeah, I think if I have the time, I'm going to whip together a little at it.

Like Burgos, maybe like doing something crazy flexing and acting all wild with like Statue of Liberty, the Apple at City Field. Dude, it would be the best. Also, if he's big, his like gimmick could just be after he's sitting there, he just takes a big bite out of an apple. Yes. It's like a pro-villain move. Instead of the Shuiwiy Vasa, the Tu-I-Vasa shooie, he just unhinges his jaw and eats an entire apple. It's an apple.

Just shoves it in there. It's golden. Love it. I love our bets. I love what we've accomplished this week. Love the bets. Hopefully we win this week. If we don't win this week, we're going to win next week.

I can tell you that much. London is a lock. Just go ahead, clear your calendars, boys and girls. London is a lock. English breakfast. You're going to do it with me on Saturday? The following Saturday? I could be convinced.

I mean, that's a bit of work, but it seems like a good way to celebrate. It's a lot of work. It's a lot of work. I didn't realize how much it is. I hate that I have to do it again. People judge you. The full English breakfast is. They judge you so harshly.

They judge you so harshly. I took a damn, like, you could have put my picture up in a museum of my breakfast. And people were like, the sausages are so tiny. Put some milk in your tea. What are you doing? Like, I got, most people were very, very kind. It said it looked good. But, yeah.

I'm not a milk in my tea guy. I know people do it. Just never been my style. Yeah, at first I was like, why would I do that? That sounds weird. But then I was like, I have people put in a coffee.

It's fine. It's just not, I'm a honey, a little brown sugar. That's all I need for a couple of gray. All right. We can get into our full anguish next week when we come back

for UFC London. But for now, it's UFC Long Island. If you're there, come say what's up to the no-bets barred. Half of the no-bets-barred crew. I'll be in like section 306 or something.

I'll be in a Jack Chore shirt. I'm going to be hard to miss, baby. I'm reping Team Tank on Saturday. That's all we've got. UFC Long Island. Hopefully it's a good one. Best of luck with all your bets. What's a London goodbye?

Cheerio. See you next week. Cheerio indeed. Love you guys. To the Vox Media Podcast Network.