MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Banking On The Favorites At UFC Vegas 59

Episode Date: August 3, 2022

The No Bets Barred boys are back this week with a full breakdown of UFC Vegas 59 — and while it may be a lackluster card, there is no such thing as a lackluster bet. Conner Burks and Jed Meshew have you covered in that regard, with both men backing Jamahal Hill and the rest of the big favorites, leading to a monster 7-leg parlay from Jed. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. Available now, only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts, Bard. This time for UFC Apex 59, Jamal Hill versus Tiago Santos. Listen, some are saying card of the year, I know it's only 2022. Some are saying,

card of the decade. I'm not saying that, but people are saying. I've heard rumblings. Like, people are out here, you know, this is the one we've all been waiting for,

as Bruce Buffer likes to say. I mean, you've got light, heavyweight main event. You've got Vicente, Lucke, Jeff Neal. You have tough finale. I don't really know

how you top this one in terms of wow factor. Don't forget. You've got San Alvi. San Alvi is on this card. Like, that's, that is a main. who's going to put butts and seats. Buts and seats, action, action, action.

You're definitely not going to get a split decision out of Sam Alvey. The guy shows up to fight. Last week, UFC 277, the Lioness is back in a big way, and I think we both made some money off of that performance. You're geniuses, you know? I said it at the time. Connor, you've never been wrong in the entire life. and so how could we be wrong when you've never been wrong?

So I mean, we obviously knew. We had the crystal ball and we saw what was coming. And so, yeah, a total vindication for us, I would say. I agree. 50-43 in a championship fight is not a great look. It's not. And you know, we talked about it on some of our post-fight shows because even though, like, I totally agree,

it was the most, what I said was it is the most compelling ass kicking I've ever seen because Julianna Pena was still trying. She wasn't doing much. She wasn't succeeding, but it was no point where it was like all the way safe until in that fifth round when Noons gets a take down. But yeah. I actually do agree with that.

I had a lot of my friends that don't really watch UFC every single week. You know, they kind of tune in for the pay-per-views and they kept texting me. Like, this is such a crazy fight. This is such a crazy fight. I was, and I would respond back and I was like, this is a fun fight because, like, Juliana Pena could come back and, like, do something crazy. But in terms of craziness, like, Amanda Nunez is thoroughly dominating. Oh, she's just kicking her ass.

It was, I mean, it was a great performance for her, but the thing was every time they got on the feet, Peña, Pena got dropped a bunch, obviously, but, like, she couldn't, she's a zombie. Like, Nunes couldn't hurt her. She's actually a zombie. Like, she's actually, so it was just like, okay, well, there was always the potential that the first fight could happen at any moment that Nunes could get tired from punching her, and the Homer Simpson defense could turn into a KO from Pena,

just like it did in the first fight. So even though it was no point close, total one-way traffic, it was one of the most compelling ass kickings I've ever seen. And, you know, I personally was a huge fan, as I, you know, put some money down on the Nunes by decision prop. Oh, that's got a great call. Great call. I bet it got a little sweaty.

Plus 450. 4.50. When the waterfalls of blood were just covering Pena's face, were you at all nervous? I wasn't nervous then. I was nervous in the second round when Pena just kept walking onto and getting dropped by the same right hand. Because I was like, I know she is tough. But at some point, your body just gives out on you. And no matter how tough you are.

She keeps doing this. Yeah, she keeps doing this at some point, Nunes. is going to put her down and then Nunes then made the decision to grapple with her and once that happened I was like sweet I wasn't all that concerned about Pena subbing Nunes from her back and so I was like okay Nunez can just stay here and that'll be great and just ride this fight out and was like yeah it was great so plus 450 is a nice little cash baby oh fantastic cash great call by you a great game plan by Nunez I mean she she had it ready to go she she looked like she was back. I'm hoping we get the Chef Chanko Nunez trilogy at this point. Two more things I want to get into.

We'll start with the bad and then we'll get into the Great. The bad, I apologize profusely for not getting the pertinent information that Alex Marono, the Great White, was fighting on Shark Week, to you soon enough. You know, it's okay because sometimes that's on me. I didn't do my due diligence. I did not do my research well enough. And so you got to take, you got to take your lumps because I will also say, listeners, I had a tough week last week, not from an overall number standpoint, but my bet numbers, I went like two and five, but because I hit the plus 450. Plus 450 helps. It really makes up for all of that, so I still ended up having a positive week.

But, yeah, that's on me. I had a positive week. I had a positive week. That makes two of us, baby. First time in a long time. It is the first time in a long time. Both of us. You know, cash in a big parlay in the noon.

his ticket basically just, man, I couldn't fail. Well, I know that Nunez wasn't the only plus money you hit because I wanted to move past the bad. Let's get into the great flyweight unders. They never miss. Never lose. Just guaranteed. Like two flyweight fights, two unders easily cashed.

Never in doubt, never in question. Joe Biden and the administration and office right now, no more stimulus checks, but they've hidden government handouts in. in flyweight unders. It's free money. That's what they're trying to tell us. I mean, I just don't miss. You just got to read the tea leaves like us.

Listen to us, listeners, and just always bet. I was sad. This card, I knew coming into this card, greatest card of all time, you know, everybody's saying it about Vegas 59, but there are no fly weights to bet the unders on. So I don't, I mean, I guess maybe we could do it on the Lipski Casuarra. I don't know if the flyweight unders translates to the women fights or not.

But with flyweight men, always bet the unders. I'm living by that from now on. Yeah, we've had some good success giving out flyweight unders. We didn't even give out the Kai Moreno one, but that under also hit. You know, it wasn't two and a half. It was four and a half, but it's still it. Hit by a million. You know, it wasn't even close.

Yeah, disappointment for my guy, Kai, but he'll be back. He'll be back. He started looking good, but sometimes you just get caught, man. You know, he had, I. I was feeling good. Those first two rounds I wasn't, but that third round, I was like,

okay, because this was your bet. This was not my bet. This was a bet I was with you on, and I was like, oh yeah, this is where the train starts rolling downhill. And I set it on our post-fight show

at MMAFighton.com, tremendous website. Great website. I was doing the live blog for the site. I thought it was a low kick because I was, you know, I'm doing a lot of stuff

and the angle and I was quick, I was like, did he just kick him low? And then the finish happened. And I was like, how, I think Herb Dean was roughing, I was like, Herb, what do you? Herb, you just let a low kick lead to a stoppage.

And I was like losing my mind. But it literally shut his body off. Oh, yeah. Because, yeah, he, because he, the way he dropped, I was like, he just got kicked in the nuts. And then on the replay, I was like, oh, thank goodness. At least it was clean. But there was a period there where I thought we had failed to cash because of an

illegal maneuver. And I was very upset. That would be nasty. But I wouldn't put it past my luck if I'm being totally honest with you. I mean, And the pictures afterward of Kai, like right afterward, it's like, dude, I hope I never have to experience something like that because that is crazy. So yeah, UFC 277, pretty fun card. Love the main card.

The main card was a lot of fun. I know all the favorites won, but the fights were at least entertaining. The fights had stuff going on, you know, and the main card is what you pay for. The rest of it, you're getting on ESPN Plus or fight pass or whatever, TSN, wherever you're watching. So, you know, even if that wasn't, shout out the DSA. Shout. Even if that wasn't, you know, the undercard, let's not pretend the undercard was good because it mostly was not. But, you know, the end of the prelims was pretty good.

Drew Dober, that was absolutely savage body shot. The great white Simpsburger. That's unbelievable. Marona looked good. Like, other than like when he got rocked by Simmelzberger, I was like, wow. Like, he's just kind of like styling on him right now. Pretty impressed about him. By Marano.

It was Shark Week. What can you expect? What are you going to do? What are you going to do? Dude, I'm not saying I'm going to bet Marano again, but man, the power of the shark was with him. That's what he should do. He should just fight every year on Shark Week, and we're going to have Marono fighting for a title soon. Dude, I would pick Alex Marano on Shark Week over Kamar Usman.

I would bet I would put my hard-earned American dollars behind that bet any day. That's a no-brainer. Vegas was smart. That'd be a minus-110-110-10 open. That's true. You know, Vegas, listen to us. We've got ideas. We'll teach you how to make money, Vegas.

You haven't been doing well enough. Vegas is obviously listening right now. Small fact that I just want to brush over Alex Marano is now one-in-one fighting on Chuck Week. Now, the first one didn't count. I don't know when the first one was, but it didn't count. It wasn't the UFC. We weren't privy to the stat so it doesn't count. All right.

That's UFC 277. Let's move on from the pay-per-view. Let's move on to the fireworks. That is UFC Apex 59. Let's start with the main event. It is a men's light heavy weight bout. It is Tiago Santos going up against Jamal Hill. Jamal Hill right now.

Last night he was minus 265. I want to say he's in like the minus 290 range now. Tiago Santos coming up back around plus 235, over under set at 2.5, under minus 170 over, plus 140. You got a side here? it's kind of tough to put your money on Tiago Santos at this point. I have a side and I have a prop bet here. I also just, I just want to say this right out of the gate. Nobody should tail me this week.

Have you been tailing me? This is, I did all the bad things. None of this, I don't feel good about any bet I made, but I'm making them. So that's where we are. But the same I said last week with several bets that didn't cash, I don't feel good about them, but. I'm just firing and we're going to see what happens. And on this one, I have two bets.

I feel okay, at least, about my side. My prop bet is sort of a shot in the dark. Before you get into that, I'm just going to go ahead and throw out that disclaimer as well. Tailing me going to be tough this week. This is just a tough card. It's a hard to hold a ton of confidence when you have fights like this. But please, the floor is yours. Let's see what we've got.

Okay, so my side and my prop are both back. Jacking Jamal Hill. Because, as you said, tough to feel confident with Tiago Santos. There's a small part of my brain that thinks that this might be the fight that Tiago Santos can win just because Santos, the key thing that I've been stressing to people for weeks, Tiago Santos is just not fun anymore. Three years ago on paper, this fight would have been a certified banger. You just tune in because it's obviously going to be awesome for however long it lasts.

Now, Santos is, he's way too cautious. He has become, you know, like people are criticizing Israel Dissan lately because of his performances, because he is entirely counteroriented. He is not going to bring the action to you. He's going to let you come at him and then he's going to try and swing. And that has led to some really boring fights. Jamal Hill is probably going to engage him in that fight and just come out and dust him. So that does give Santos a chance, but it's just really a hard.

hard. He is old now and you can see it. He's still explosive and powerful, but it is, it's a little less so. And it's just, you know, I just can't feel very good about what's going on here to back him. So all of the trends are in Jamal Hill's favor, and that's why I'm backing him on it. Vegas is five and one with Jamal Hill as a favorite. So Vegas knows that Vegas knows what Jamal Hill is. and conversely, Tiago Santos is two and six as an underdog. You want to take a guest the last time Tiago Santos cashed an underdog ticket?

I mean, it's before the John Jones fight. Oh, well before. He hasn't cashed an underdog ticket since 2015 against Elias Tiodoru. Nice little stat there. Yeah, he's two and six and an underdog and hasn't cashed one in seven years. Like, that's just,

Vegas knows where both of these guys, guys are. When they set one dude as a favorite, that guy, they know that the lines are speaking the truth to them, and especially with Santos getting older. I mean, no doubt. The line is correct. I mean, everything you're saying is undeniable. Like, well, even if you're Tiago Santos, you couldn't deny it. I mean, leading up to that John Jones fight, you know, before all these knee injuries happened, eight of his nine wins leading into that fight were by knockout. Four fights since then, no knockouts for the guy. He is much more tentative. He, like I, the number here is correct. and man, I'm with you.

I'm playing Jamal Hill. I just, I just, I do. He's a parley piece for me. I really just have a hard time putting my money on Tiago Santos at this point. Same. And then Tom, he's also a parley piece. I end up this week, I'm going to have a lot of parlay pieces because we got a lot of long odds this week.

It's kind of what I meant to. And the thing for this card, it was really hard for me to find props that I wanted to bet or felt any level of confidence in, even in some of these big, fight. So I did take a shot on an exacto prop just because exactos are fun. Jamal Hill had four of his six wins in the UFC are first round K.O. He is on a three-fight win streak of first round KOs. I took a small shot on Hill at plus, where is the number? Plus 350 by first round KO. I have no real

confidence that this is going to hit. But I let, exactly. Actos are fun and, you know, ride the roller coaster, baby. The train is three, three in a row. Let's get one more in that. It's going to be a fun five minutes for you. I can guarantee you that if it does last that long or you're cashing a ticket and jumping up and down in your living room. Perfect way to end.

UFC Apex 59. Exactly. All I'm praying for is that we don't get like a 46 to 39 significant strike, zero take down, no control time, 25 minute. Just staring contest. I agree. I am also praying that we don't get a Tiago Santos fight in this. I hope this is a Jamal Hill fight, not a Tiago Santos fight.

That's the other thing, man. Santos, his last two fights have been main events. And so when you're boring and you're boring over 25 minutes, who, that is a tough scene. A dude that big, that explosive, and with that sick and badass of a tattoo on his chest, you shouldn't be going to 25-minute decisions throwing 30 significant strikes. Yeah, especially when he used to be so fun.

That's the tragedy. The John Jones fight blowing out both his knees just kind of, you know, that changes his career in a lot of ways. But yeah, all right, we're on the same side. Jamal Hill getting it done. Let's go, baby. Let's go, sweet dreams to Tiago Santos.

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Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. Next up, we've got the co-main event is a men's welterweight bout. It's Vicente Lucke, going up against Jeff Neal. Lucke right now sitting in minus 190. Neil coming back at plus 160, over under set at two and a half under minus 135 over plus 105.

For me, this is, just like, I mean, I really do think this is going to be a banger of a fight. Like, I think it's probably going to be the best fight on the card. Like, dudes are pretty much identical in height and reach. They throw hands. They hit hard as hell. They're hard as hell to knock out. Both these guys have solid chins on them. Great records going in the UFC. Been leaning Louke all week. Never got around to pulling the trigger. Now the price is at a point where, you know, when I checked on Sunday, it was minus 155. Now going back to it, it's minus 190. I think Lou Geh probably wins, but I have not put a bet down on it.

So I am betting Jeff Neal in this fight. Let's go. Let's go. All the stuff you said before you said you didn't pull the trigger is this fight's going to be a banger. This fight is incredibly, I think this fight is close. It's basically the short version here. I completely agree. I think this fight is pretty close to 50-50, and you now have Neil Steamed to plus 160.

I think it's just a value play, especially a couple of, of things here. One, just an interesting factoid. Lucke never been an underdog in the UFC. He's had a couple of pick-em lines, but never been an underdog. He's like 20 fights? Yeah, 13-and-3 is a favorite, and he's had a few pick-ums, but never been an underdog. Wow.

Neil also only an underdog one time in the UFC, and that was actually his most recent fight against Santiago Panzanibio, which he won, and he was like plus 100. He was very close to even money. in that as well. So I did not realize that until I dug into it. Oddly, both of these guys been expected to win all their fights. But for me, I think Neil is a little bit more defensively minded than Lucke, which gives me a lot of hope that he can succeed in this fight. The Lucay is getting old. I know he's not actually old. He's still pretty young. I think he's 31. It's the Max Holloway effect. But he, he's got way more fight mileage.

in Jeff Neal. And that fight mileage, especially for Luque. Like, Neil's been in some hard fights, but Luque, it seems like every one of his fights is absolute hammer and tongs the whole time. So I have some concerns about where his mileage is going and just also a fun thing. I know MMA math doesn't work. These two dudes have a lot of common opponents. A lot.

And they both got dominated by Stephen Wonderboy Thompson. Stephen Wonderboy Thompson. But that's like a really difficult. style for them just because of the way Thompson fights and doesn't engage in the way they like, but they both fought Bilal Muhammad. I mean, Luque fought him twice. Obviously split wins with Bilal. Neal beat Bilal one time.

They both fought Mike Perry. Neil killed Mike Perry. Lucay won a splitie over Mike Perry. And they both knocked down Nico Price. There's a lot of commonality, a lot of common opponent here. And if you look at that, it all kind of lines up to Neil. Neil did as better as well or better. than Lucke in multiple common opponents.

And like I said, I just think this is a pretty even fight. And so at plus 190 or 160, I'm just going to take the value. I think that number also probably even moves further towards Lucke as the fight gets nearer. That's what I'm thinking, honestly, dude. I really think I'm going to keep my eye on this Jeff Neal line because I'm with you on it being a 50-50 fight.

And if Jeff Neal gets up to like plus 180, plus 190, I'm going to have a hard time not playing him. I definitely do. I mean, Lucke's a fan favor. That's what you have to keep. in mind with a lot of these fighters, dude. A lot of people will just blindly back their guys and just throw money at them. And, I mean, we're already seen it at the beginning of the week.

Pretty heavy steam, 155 to minus 190. I wouldn't be surprised if Luca is closing at like 220. And that's almost sort of exactly my thought, especially on a card like this, where there's not, there aren't a lot of marquee name. So if you're just a casual guy who's coming in and wants to throw down a couple bucks for the fights, who you can't look at this card and pick there's nobody you know if you're just a casual fan other than maybe Vicente Lucay or Tiago Santos to chuck some money at so I think he's probably going to close north of minus 200 certainly so you could hold on that and then bet a little later

in the week maybe get a little extra value yeah I think I'm with you I think uh like I said the reason I hadn't pulled the trigger on luke because I do slightly lean towards his side is just because I do think it's such a close fighting at that price I don't like it but yeah I'm I'm not always the value play man, the value boy's cold. But if the line keeps moving, I might have to join in this week. Hey, if the line keeps moving and you join in, that's a delayed wolf pack. You know, it's a wolf pack on layaway. You'll hear the house.

You'll hear the howls around, you know, New York City and Atlanta. We'll just do an audio of us howling and release you on Twitter. And then that's how you know. So follow both of our Twitter handles. then you'll know that Connor has pulled the trigger and we are in fact a wolfback wager. Exactly. All right.

Should be a great co-main event. I'm very much looking forward to it. I mean, this is easily the people's main event of the car. Oh, God, yeah. If you were going to crown one, there is zero question. Any other debate? If you're only watching one fight this weekend, make it this one. Olegs, Cech, Sam Alvey, of course.

All right. Next up, let's keep it rolling on the main card. It is the heavyweight, tough finale. Zach Pauga going up against Muhammad Usman, little bro to Kumaru right now. Usman plus 200, Zach going at minus 240 over under set of two and a half, over minus 125 under minus 105. Yeah, I didn't watch tough this season. I rewatched a few of these fights for both Usma, Pauga, Miller, and Walker. I will not be laying any money on these two fights.

I've got action on both. I love it. I love it. I love it. Yeah, I don't know. I thought about doing, I thought about playing Miller. I thought about playing Palga in a parlay. And yeah, I just, I was like, come on.

Look, that's reasonable. I decided to be unreasonable this week. Let's hear it. I'm excited to hear it. Maybe you can talk me into something. I doubt it. I'm taking power go because I want to be extremely good, everyone listening. I haven't watched a second of tough, nor did I go back and watch their fights.

I'm going to get around to it. These bets are made entirely with the assistance of one Alexander K. Lee. He's a writer for Emilyfighting.com, tremendous website. He is a... Tremendous writer as well. Tremendous writer. He is the guy who dutifully watched tough every episode this season and recapt it for us. He's the tough guy.

That's what they say about it, AKs. He's a tough guy. and he watched all the fights and weeks ago when we're texting or whatever and he I guess is watching that episode of tough and he goes out of the blue no very

hey when the tough finale happens if Muhammad Usman's in it bet on the other guy it's literally what he was like what he's like I think to paraphrase him it was something like yeah so imagine Kamar Usman but bad

that's and that heavyweight. Yeah, a giant, a giant bad Camaro Osmond. He's not great and he does not really, he's, you know, he's very tentative. He does not throw a ton of shots. Yeah, apparently he's not very good. And so I confirmed with AK again.

I was like, hey, who should I have been on tough? I haven't watched any of this. And he was like, oh, yeah, Pauga. Go for sure, go Pauga. And I was like, okay, so I have Pauga as a parlay piece. I have a lot of parley pieces. I haven't actually made my parley bet because I'm deciding whether I want to split it up into a couple of them or just do a moonshot eight team or, you know. So we'll get to that as we work through it.

But Paoge is one of my future parley legs for sure. I'm actually pretty disappointed we didn't have the foresight to bring on AK just for these two fights. We really swung and miss there. We did, but I talked to him all this morning about it. So I have his official breakdowns. Yeah, I was going to say, give us the detail. That's what I'm betting. I told you the Pauga, we could move on to the Walker Miller fight if you'd like.

I have absolutely nothing else to say on Pauke Luzman. So yeah, let's hear the wise words of MMA fighting's tough analyst, A.K. Lid. Well, so I like you, kind of just looking on paper, thought I might be into the Miller business, you know? She's mid-20, like fairly young, established hot-hit grappler, like a good, you know, there's stuff to build there and have a solid Camaro finish to come into the finals. On paper, it seems like her. But as AK told me this morning, no, definitely bet on Brogan Walker. Oh, wow.

Yeah, so that's where I'm at. One, Brogan Walker is an underdog right now. She's plus 100 at Draft Kings. I'm not betting Brogan Walker straight at the moment because I'm going to wait to see if a prop line. drops for Walker by decision when that comes out to see what that is. But Walker, six of Walker's seven career wins of him by decision. Her one finishes a submission, not submitting Julianna Miller. So that's just how that goes.

But what AK said to me is, you know, Miller, Miller's certainly a better prospect than Walker. But Walker, Walker quietly been in there with some good fighters. You know, she fought Miranda Maverick. She fought Aaron Blanchield. Those are two very good prospects for this division. and, you know, the impressive thing, apparently she made it to the finale, winning a decision with a torn MCL.

She just fought through it. So, uh, yeah, AK said that, you know, she's got decent enough takedown defense. She's going to be the better striker. If Miller does get takedowns,

Walker won't just be totally dead on the floor. And he favors her experience over, uh, apparently a very mercurial Juliana Miller. So, wow. Is that the word that he used? No, that's the word I used.

Let me find the exact word, but it's something, it's something. I mean, that was an incredible descriptive word. I was going to say, if he goes 2 and O dropping words like mercurial about these fighters, I mean, this guy is, he's the tough whisper. I mean, well, he is absolutely the tough whisperer. I think his exact words were a headcase. So, you know, I might have said it in a nicer way. Not bad. He did, but so he's favoring the experience.

and underdog odds, and plus whatever I can, whatever extra juice I can get for Walker by decision, you know, might as well take a shot. Let's see what happens. Do not recommend anyone follow me, but that's where I'm going. If you do follow Jed and they lose, talk to A.K. Lee, not Jed,

because they're all straight from his mouth. It's true. But hey, look, I just want to shout to my boy, A.K., hit a 16 parlay last week. Man had never been M.A. Man, had never bet M.MA until No Bet's Bard came along. Now he's out here just hitting six-teamers, crushing it, my boy. We're creating degenerates around the country.

Bringing them all to the dark side, and I love every minute of it. All right, so those are the tough finale. It should be a couple of bangers, and we'll get some UFC contracts out of it. Next up, we're still on the main card. It is a men's heavyweight bout. Augusto Sakai going up against Sergei. Spivak right now, sit at minus 255. Sakai coming back at plus 2.15 over under set at two and a half, under minus 165, over

plus 135. I have a side as a parlay piece and then a straight play on a prop. The prop that I took is the fight to not go to a decision. I mean, solely based off this is, these are two heavyweights that more often than not, have not gone to decisions in their careers. What's the odds on that prop? I snigated at minus 155. I'm still seeing minus 160 out there at a few books.

I mean, that's really the biggest reason I played it is because where the lines at, Sakai, 70% over his career, Spivak, 82% of the time they do not go to a decision. Sakai, I mean, he hasn't seen the scorecards in six of his eight UFC fights. And the two that didn't, that went to a decision were against Andre Arlovski. Blagoi Ivanov, who are just decision machines. I mean, Ivanov went to a decision with Derek Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. I mean, Arlovsky as well. And then, I mean, Sakai, too.

Marcin Taibero, Carlos Philippe, guys that typically go to decisions. So, I mean, I feel like when they're fighting other finishers, I feel like they're not going to go to a decision. In this case, I think Sakai either keeps it on the feet and knocks Spivok out, or Spivok takes him to the ground, just rains down ground and pound, or takes his back and gets a submission. But with heavyweights at this price to not go to the decision, I feel decent about my chances.

I like it. And did you say who you've got as far as a side parlay piece? I mean, it has to be Spivoc. Yeah, yeah, I'm using Spivoc as a parlay piece. You know, obviously he's the favorite. I wouldn't parlay up an underdog. But I do think, I mean, he's... Never parlay underdogs.

Never parlay underdogs. Just take them straight and get your money and run. Unless it's underdog odds on flyweight unders because as we know, then you parlay it. They never lose. Lock. Never lost ever. Great point by you. I should have thought of that myself.

Yeah. I just think Spie Walk's going to be relentless with the takedowns. He's proven that when he goes for them, he's able to get pretty much everyone he tries to get to the mat. I mean, Greg Hardy isn't a world beater by any means. But last time out, he pretty much took him down at will. I think he's going to be able to get Sakata to the mat at some point. And once it's down there, ground and pound, take his back, submission, one of the two. And I think he gets him out of there.

We're in lockstep on this one. I've got Spivak and Parlay. Let's go. I think it's the exact same. It's what you said, you know, I think he can score takedowns and once it's there. I think Spiebock is a loki, a pretty decent little prospect at heavyweight. I also just... He's nice, bro.

I've never liked Sakai. I don't... He feels like the... Like a worse version of, I don't know. like Tai Tui Vasa. Like he's like bad Taitui Vasa. And I'm not even confident Tai Tui Vasa's a good fighter.

He's certainly a fun fighter. But like it's just never been a big sick guy guy. And I think Spivak has some real potential to him. So with you all the way on this one. Yeah, he's Romanian. There's a Romanian place,

a restaurant near my crib. Oh, that's how you should pick your bets. Might get some Romanian food on Saturday just to really cheer on my boy, Sergei. I love that. I will also. say from an odd standpoint. Spivok 4 and 1 is a favorite. Sakai.

Oh, and 3 is an underdog. Ooh. I mean, I like that. Vegas, again, Vegas, I love betting along what Vegas knows and Vegas knows how this fight's going to go. Yeah. Yeah. Hopefully we are on the right side of it.

Don't know what Romanian food is. If I'm going to be brutally honest with you here, I hope I'm not showing my lack of culture. No, I have no idea. You might find out on Saturday. Shout out to Sergay. Eastern European? I bet it's solid. Oh, I can guarantee you it's solid.

Staying in business in New York City, it's got to be decent. Well, we'll need that review next week as we talk about Veracruz. We can have a little segment of counter reviews, the local cuisine. UFC San Diego, cannot wait for that card, but we're still on UFC Apex 59. Let's get to the last. Decades, some are saying, even though it's only 2022. Let's get to the last fight on the main card. It is a women's flyway bout.

It's Ariane Lipski going up against Priscilla, Kachewara. Lipski minus 170, Kachewara plus 145 over underset at 2.5, over minus 215 under plus 175. I am going with the Queen of Violence here. Do you have a dog play in this one? I have no bet on this one. I think if I were to make a bet, it would be cashawrero but I that's strictly uh I have no faith in Ariane Lipski I don't have faith in Priscilla Casuala either mind you but cashware is cashed number of cash awarea there you go wow

is that what they're calling her now three and four in the UFC become cashawara three those those three tickets are underdog tickets so if you better every time seven of her fights she's been an she's been an underdog she's never been a favorite in the UFC but if you better every time you're still making money. She's cashing enough tickets at underdog prices. Listen, you hear the distaste in my voice. I'm still salty over the Gideon Kim fight. She lost the fight.

She lost the fight, dude. It stayed standing the entire time. She almost got doubled up on strikes. He's got thoroughly outstruck every single round. I mean, that was 3027, Kim. I've never been so salty about a fight in my life. She just started throwing those like inside. elbows. Like she stopped

throwing punches in the final round, and she just was throwing elbows the entire time. Like, ay, aye, aye. I mean, so here's what I'm going with Flipski. A little bit of saltiness. I mean, I've already taken her. I was one of the first bets I've made. I'm salty as hell. Like,

don't tell me on this. This is a battle. Always bet with salt. If you're salty, just bet with your, if you've got hate in your heart, you let it out on the betting slip. This is a bet. This is a battle that I have to take on by myself. I I have to expel my demons, and I can be done with Priscilla Ketjawera if Lipski cashes this ticket for me. You don't have to ride into the night with me.

I will do this by myself, and hopefully I'll come out on the other side. I just think, I mean, actually, I don't think. I know she's going to be more technical on the feet. Kachewara, she just has power and a brawling style. Like if you look at her UFC fights, she either wins by knockout or she just gets thoroughly pieced up on the feet. The GE on Kim fight, I know that she won that, but she got thoroughly pieced up.

I mean, if you look at her four losses and the Kim fight, you add those all up, she has gotten outstruck 515 to 268. That's an average of getting outstruck 103 to 54. Like, she's almost getting doubled up. She gets hit a ton. 7.9.1 significant strikes of Zorpe per minute. I couldn't find the number on it,

but I have to imagine that is one of the worst in the entire flyway. weight the vision. Sure, Kachuaua might be able to use her power, stun Lipski, hurt Lipski, maybe even knock her out. But I mean, if Lipski goes in and fights smart, tries the picker apart from the outside, I think she can use the ground game as well. We saw her do it against bomb. Kachewa has no ground game at all. I mean, we saw it in the Jillian Robertson fight. I know Robertson is talented on the ground, but she got completely dominated. You know, I would not mind seeing her go to the ground and try to exploit that, that lack of skill there from Kachewara.

I think Lipski's like sneaky okay on the floor. Yeah, dude. I mean, she showed it in KSW a lot more than she's shown it in the UFC. But I think that's something that she needs to add into this fight. I'm praying that she does. But yeah, like I said, you don't have to fight this battle with me. something I got to do by myself. But I think Cachewara is going to find similar issues that

she had against Kim. I think Lipski is probably faster than Kim. I hope she adds in the ground game, and I hope we can get us a unanimous decision. Imagine if Lipski out strikes her like 120 to 57 and gets like three takedowns and then loses by

unanimous decision. I might have to quit. I might have to quit. Not only betting, but my job in general. Honestly, I don't want to wish bad things on you, but for content reasons. I don't know what else, dude. And you can just, if this can become a new bit is Casuera,

you just constantly bet against Casuala. And I'm just like, I don't know, she might do it again. Dude. It would be great for content. I'm going to have to, I'm going to have to fade her out of the UFC. Like, I'm just going to have to continue to fade her until she is out of the UFC. So when Catruera takes the flyaway belt from Valentina Shepchenko, We all want to see Catchware, Sheffchenko 2.

We need the rematch. We need it. It was not definitive. It was not. Shevchenko only outstruck her 95 to 2 and finished her in the second round and racked up like nine minutes of control time, like almost controlled the entire fight. We need to see that too. So when that happens, know that I am crying in my cardboard box on the streets of New York City. And another note, this is going to be a streamer for me. This is going to be a phone stream one because I will actually be watching our Atlanta Braves at City Field on Saturday night. Oh, nice. Yeah, so with the prelims, it's going to be some phone streams for your boy.

Going to have to bring the extra portable charger, all that. Love it. Hopefully I don't get kicked out of City Field because Catchware of One of Unanimous Decision after getting doubled up on strikes and control for 10 minutes. I hope you don't, but there's a part of me that wants you to just, again, for content. It's great content if that happens. If you see me on the Sports Center, top 10 for getting ripped out of City Field. Just know that that's why.

All right. That's the main card though, buddy. We did it. That's the main card. We did it pretty quick, too. Less than 40 minutes to do a recap at 277 and the main card. We definitely kept concise. The best card of the decade.

Well, the best is yet to come because we still do have a few more fights to break down. We do. We've got some prelim action here. You had a lot of prelim action, I see. Yeah, it's mostly just parlay pieces, so it's not really going to take me long, which we'll just take us right into it. Fight of the card on the card of the decade, so fight of the decade, it's going to be a middleweight bout. Michael Olexeychek, going up against Smiling Sam Alvey right now. You can get Prince Michael at minus 600.

Sam Alvey coming back at plus 450 over under set at 2.5, under minus 130 over, add even money. we're laying the hammer down on smiling Sam Alby. Are you, is this real? No, no, I don't think of all. Thank God. Come on, we all know. I assumed you weren't, but like, I don't know, maybe. I was honestly hoping it gode you.

And if you started barking for the Wolfpack, I would have cashed out my parlay and bet on Sam Alvey with you. I mean, yeah, dude. I mean, come on. I make stupid bets, but I don't make that stupid of a bet. Sam Alvey hasn't won a fight. in forever. Yeah, since World War II.

Like, it's been a while. And I actually, like, I am on the side that he's slightly overrated at how bad he is. Like, he's, he is bad. I understand that. But, like, some of these fights are going to split decisions. They're pretty close, and he could have come out the winner. Like, he's not going in there and just getting smashed, like, first round knocked out every single time. He's bad.

But, like, some people are, like, he's the worst fighter. to ever step in the octagon. He's got some wins like him. Here I am. I mean, it's just easy to pick him apart because he's on the record. If not the worst losing, is it the record of the most fights in the UFC without a win? Oh, no, I was just saying his record. Oh, yeah.

I mean, he either has the record for most consecutive fights without a win or he might be like tied with BJ at the end of BJ Penn's career. But like, eight fights, eight fights since he has won a fight. entirely different. Eight fights since he has won. 2018, a split decision over Jean Valante. God, that's bad. It's, you know.

Yeah, I mean, Oleg Sechek is young. He's improving. He's a free-flowing striker. He's got proven power. I think he takes care of business. Parlayed him up when he was minus 490 with Hill, and then I have one more to finish it off. I'm with you.

I've got Oloxajic as a parley piece. Like I said, I've got six parley pieces on this card and might throw in a little PFL one as well. So I haven't figured out if I'm just going to do a moon shot. Single parlay or a big one? Oh, I forgot. You're going, huh? Yeah, what are you thinking for PFL? Well, I'm probably going to take a shot on Anthony Pettis at Plus 100.

I already locked it in. I love that. A little wolf packy, little baby PFL? Wolfpack? Yeah, that's 905. Shout out to Showtime. I was there for the last one. Stevie Ray, you know, got a wild submission,

but as a fight, he was not winning. Yeah, he was not winning that fight until that happened. I think Pettis probably wasn't even that engaged in that fight because he already knew he was locked into the playoffs. I don't think Lightning's going to strike twice again. Give me Pettus under all gods. Locked in as a one seed. I like that theory because that was the same one that I have.

Plus, I just want to cheer on Anthony Pettis in person. It's a way more fun. Having both of them in studio in the MMA or today, I'll get to meet them. We are. It's very exciting. And the parlay piece I would pick is OAM Olivier Albert Marcier. He's taking on a little French there. Thank you.

Thank you. I appreciate it. You know, I've listened to Ariel a lot. I'm trying to adopt some more of that in my life. I think you mean merci. Oh, true. But yeah, OAM's just been on a heater since this past year and just looking really good. So minus 240.

You want me to peel back the curtain from me as I'll be attending PFL on Friday? I do have a parlay. It's Rob Wilkinson, OAM that you already mentioned, and Marcelo Nunez. I parlayed them three and Anthony Pettis. Only through a half unit on each just because PFL can get very tricky. I'm going to the event in person. I'm not going to not bet on it. Yeah, I mean, you've got to.

And, you know, maybe I'll pick up a couple of those legs. I'll just go real moonshot, tin teamer. When is a tin teamer ever lost? You tell me, because I'm in. Never. It's guaranteed. It's almost as guaranteed as flyweight under. It's maybe not quite the same, but, you know, neck and neck.

If we can get like a ton of futures from draft kings, you know, maybe one day we can put together a 10-leg flyweight under parlay. Oh, my God. And when you parlay locks, you get a lot of money. You get a big lock. Oh, man. That's the, when that happens, the day that happens, the show ends. We retire on top, and we count our millions from a $10 bet.

Could you imagine if you parlayed the flyweight under's last week? It would have paid out nicely. It would have paid out nicely. And it was never in doubt. It was guaranteed all day. No. I mean, the Mantosia one really was. never in doubt. I mean, that was just like...

Dude, alley pants came out. But that's last week. We still have stuff this week. I know, I know. We got to get back to it. You get too distracted. I've said it. The many men walk up. You guarantee yourself a W when you walk up to many men. All right. Let's get back to the car of the decade, UFC Apex 59.

It is a light weight bout. You want to have some fun? This fight is probably going to be pretty fun. It is Terrence McKinney going up against Eric the Ghost Pepper Gonzalez McKinney right now minus 850, probably going to close around minus 1,000 Gonzalez's coming back at plus 600. Over under set at 1.5 and the under is minus 235.

Over is set at plus 170. So yeah, I just, we mentioned Drew Dober in that chin earlier. I almost feel like this is a little, you know, get back in the win column, Terrence. You know, we fed you to Drew Dober on short notice. You almost cracked the code of that grand. beautiful chin of Dovers, but as many have tried before, many have failed. You failed as well. Johnny Bravo cannot be knocked out.

That's what we all know. Johnny Bravo cannot be knocked out. That one shot from Alviz would have put me into a coma. Like I'm talking like a real 10 day, like 20 day, what happened? We're in another pandemic. All my friends are dead. It's 2035 type coma. And Drew Dover just ate it like.

like he got slapped by like his son or something. You know, you just, it's, it is what it is. You cannot break that chin. Terrence McKinney found it out. I don't think he's going to have that issue against Eric Gonzalez,

I got to say. I don't think so either. I mean, the jump that Eric Gonzalez is making from 40-year-old Jim Miller to like the firecracker that is Terrence McKinney is probably going to be pretty hard to adjust to. He got knocked out by Jim Miller. I just think McKinney's going to come in here, put that insane.

pace that he loves to put on his opponents and yeah probably get Eric Gonzalez out of there early I mean I'm on Terrence McKinney as a parlay piece juice to hell but I parlayed it with the Oleg Seych and Jamal Hill pays out minus 118 and then in a pro parlay I have the fight does not go the distance of minus 525 which honestly might be a better bet because Terrence McKinney is killer be killed in his whole career he's only seen the third round once I just I have a hard hard hard time seeing this one go to a decision. Oh yeah, I don't think that that's a thing that's going to happen either.

But I'm with you. I just have McKinneyas Barlet piece just because everything you said. I think they're sending him up for a win. Price is very steep. But like, screw it. Why not? Who cares? He's going to be part of my 10-leg auto win.

Screw it. Why not? Who cares? That's my methodology for that. I mean, when you're doing a 10-leg parlay, too, like a minus 850 does make like a little bit of a difference when you're doing it starts bumping it up when you're when you're that deep in the numbers you know right when you're getting into 10 legs like it really because some people are like never parley more than like a minus 750

first of all I'll do what I want with my parley's thank you very much second of all making a dumb bet I'm going to make as dumb a bet as I can make yeah thank you I appreciate it I know you're a guru, you're the expert, but I'll do what I want with my bets. Thank you very much. I don't need nobody tell me what to do. But yeah, 10 legs, it does start getting juiced up. So, yeah, Terrence McKinney, if he loses that one, I caramba. You know, the train that was looking so great when he had Drew Doverd in the first round

has now come crashing down if he were to drop this one. I think we're safe. I think so, too. I think so, too. Knock on one, though, just in case. All right, let's keep it moving. Prelims. Welterweight bout.

Takashi Soto. Brian Battle. Brian Battle minus 250. Soto coming back at plus 210 over under 2.5. Over minus 165 under plus 135. Takashi 10 Soto versus Brian Poo-Bair battle. 10 versus Poo-Ber. Not as good as T-Rex versus Ghost Pepper, in my opinion.

Not quite. You're right. I'm with you on that one as well. I mean, Ghost Pepper is a tremendous name. Let's just say T-Rex is fine. Like I get it. It's just,

I'm not that enthused, but Ghost Pepper is great. But yeah, I'm with you here. Does anyone know why Takashi Sato's nickname is 10? Dude, I don't have any idea. Neither do I. Yeah,

so I'm going with Brian Battle here as my, as one of my final parlay pieces. He's coming down to Walter Wade. He's going to be much bigger in this fight, three inches, height, four inches of reach. I think he's going to be the better striker. Maybe not the more powerful one, but I do think he'll be technically the better striker in this fight. I also think he's going to be able to get it to the ground.

We just saw Gunnar Nelson take him down at will. I think Brian Battle will be able to use his size and be able to get Sato down as well. Battle also, he has a numerous amount of wins by submission, including that Ninja Choke on Tuff. Sato, three of his five losses are by submission. I know a lot of people are pointing to that Gunner Nelson fight and how he avoided getting subbed by Gunner Nelson, but to that point, it seemed like his entire game plan was to avoid getting sub by Gunner Nelson

because in route to avoiding the submission, he got 3026th across the board. It was not even remotely close to a competitive fight. I'm only just to not talk about that fight. I'm still mad about Sato's just wholesale decision to lose but not be finished. and take a moral victory and ruin my sub-prop bet. Yeah, I had Gunner Nelson's sub individual and in a parlay,

and that is the only bet I missed on that UFC loaning card would have been my first perfect card ever. So, yeah, let's just fade Sato again because it's kind of like the catch-a-wear thing, man. You're just ruining our day over here, so let's just take our demons out on UFC Apex 59. I'm with you. I also have battle as one of my many parley legs. Wow. Let's go. For all the same reasons.

He's bigger. He works at a way higher pace. Like battle is going to push the action here. And, you know, maybe Sato survives. Maybe he doesn't. But I'll take him as a parley leg. Let's go. Let's go.

Brian, Battle, it is. We are both on the same page there. Let's break down a couple more fights here. Let's keep it rolling. It is. A, welterweight bouties, Jason Whip, going up against Josh Quinlan. Right now, you can get Quinlan at minus 215. Witt coming back at plus 185, over under set at 1.5, over minus 165 under plus 127.

I don't know if you have a play on this. Mine is a parlay piece, so the fight does not go to the decision. Really, just the thinking here, the props weren't out yet, so I just took the fight, doesn't go to a decision. How does Witt lose? by getting knocked out, cannot trust that chin. How does Quinlan win? Steroids, juiced up,

Megachad, he wins by knockout. Almost every one of his wins is by knockout. I think it is probably the same fate here. I just don't see Whit being able to wrestle him for 15 minutes and get the job done. I'm going to take your word for it. I have no action on this. I just don't care enough to. I already had plenty of bets.

And this fight card is not enough for me to want to dive into this one. I love it. Listen to Connor. He's a genius. Listen, we have one fight to go that we have action on, and we've got five minutes. Can we get the sub-hour episode for UFC Apex 59? Let's find out. It is the last fight we're going to talk about.

It is a women's strawweight bow. Cory McKenna going up against Miranda Granger right now. You can get McKenna at minus 225. Granger coming back. Add plus 190 over under set of 2.5 over minus 300 under plus 3,000. under plus 225. Tell me what you got here. So remember at the beginning of the episode

when I said I have one objectively stupid bet? Oh, wow. Let's hear it, please. It's this one, baby, because I'm not going to hit you with the big breakdown. I'm just going to give you one. I don't want the big breakdown. I'll give you two stats.

First stat is 68. That is Miranda Granger's reach. Yeah. The second stat is 58. That is Corey McKenna's reach. That is a 10. inch reach advantage. Granger also has four inches of height.

I know McKenna looks like she could be a good prospect. You know, she's very young. She's 22, 23, something like that. Miranda Granger, not a great fighter. I'm not here to say she's a great fighter, but I tried to find out what the odds are, the stats are. I cannot imagine that the stats,

that historically the stats are very good for someone who is at a 10-inch reits disadvantage to win professional fights. Dude, I can't even lie to you. I didn't think that that was possible to be at a 10-inch reach advantage in women's draw weight. Not at heavyweight. Like the only division I could even see it is heavyweight because you get like Jeff Monson versus Tim Sylvia or whatever.

You get some of those fights. But like McKenna, small for the division anyway. Obviously can grapple a bit, can fight a bit. Granger not very good. But Granger at plus 190 with 10 inches of reach. and four inches of height. This is a stupid bet, but I just said, screw it. Prove me wrong.

Like, come out here and prove me wrong, Corey McKenna, and I will say, okay, but I'm going to take the shot. So based on nothing beyond the physical disparity of this bout, that's why I have a plus one-night you bet on Randah Granger. Dude, I mean, I don't hate it. I actually think it's kind of hilarious. I mean, McKenna is young, dude. she's what, 23?

Like, she is unbelievably young. I mean, I would assume she's going to have to lean on the takedowns here to get it done because I can't imagine she wants to strike with someone that much bigger than her. But yeah, I like that. 10 inches of reaching a strawaway fight that is unbelievable. It's unreal number or so, you know. I'm glad you didn't give a long breakdown. Because that is...

That's all I needed to know. So, yeah, shout out to Miranda Granger and the 10-inch reach advantage of women strawweight. Okay, my bets for this card. Keeping a light, trying to keep it tight, hopefully get out in the green. I've got singles, Ariane Lipski, minus 155, Spivak, Sakai fight does not go to a decision at minus 155. Parlayed up Jamal Hill, Michael Olexeycheck, Terence McKinney, that pays out at minus 118. Parlayed up Ryan Battle and Sergey Spivak. That pays it plus 113.

And I parlayed McKinney-Gonzalez does not go the distance as well as Quinlan Whit does not go the distance. That pays out at minus 160. Boom, I've got a little more action than you down. My straight bets. I've got a long, you know, flyer on Jamal Hill by first round K.O. at plus 350. Taking Jeff Neal as the underdog at plus 160. I will be betting Brogan Walker by decision whenever that line does drop. It's not out now, obviously.

Though she is a straight underdog at plus 100, which if that line never drops, plus 100, I'll still take the shot on Brogan Walker. Miranda Granger, plus 190. We just broke it down. and then buckle up kids buckle up kiddos because i've got a six team parley it might end up becoming a seven team because it may add oam as but as it stands you know what screw it i'm just going to say i'm going to do it i'm about to lock it in a seven team parley jamaul hila zaguergirghergay spivac mico olig tarence mc bryan bryan battle and my guy from the pfel alexander or olivier albin marcia that seven teamer pays out at plus 591 punching that ticket in right now and then you know we've got a little bit just a little baby wolf pack on on mr anthony pretty tony showtime peddiss over at the pfle plus

one hondo those are the bets we've that's it we did it sub sub one hour baby let's go sub one hour and i have to say like there's going to probably be like a nice 90 seconds cut out of this as well so like we got some time i mean like we we we we made it. We made it pretty clean. I will be at the Hulu Theater. I've seen a few of these PFL fighters being like fighting an MSG this weekend. Technically you are

fighting at Madison Square Garden, but you're fighting at the Hulu Theater at Madison Square Garden. You know, I'm kind of being a big for bringing it up. Let them have their moment, my guy. Regardless. Yes, have their moment. I will see you guys at the Hulu Theater. On Friday, next week,

UFC San Diego cannot wait for that one. Marlon Vera, Dominic Cruz. Yeah, you stay classy San Diego. Can't wait to say that 50 times next week. Oh, I mean, we've got to. But just so we're clear, next week,

Odie Osborne Tyson, NAM. Flyweight under, baby. Just go ahead and lock it in. If the odds are out for you with your Bucky, go ahead and lock it in. There's a flyweight. Take that under. If we're actually being totally 100% serious right now, we're obviously never going to take every single

flyway under but an O'Day Osborne flyway fight I will take the under in that taking the under baby let's go I will guarantee you I'm taking the under in that fight that's that that's UFC Apex 59 card of the decade next week UFC San Diego I feel like we're actually getting

kind of close to the hour mark so let's get out of here see you next week love you guys