MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Best Bets for Canelo vs. Crawford and Noche UFC

Episode Date: September 10, 2025

It's that time of the year again. This Saturday, Noche UFC goes down, celebrating Mexican Independence Day with a big UFC event, this time in San Antonio, Texas. But that's not the only big thing this weekend, aside from the Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva UFC main event, this Saturday also features the highly-anticipated boxing superfight between Canelo Alvarez and Terence Crawford, which goes down in Las Vegas. It's the biggest fight weekend of the year, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew flies solo as he dives into both Noche UFC and Canelo-Crawford. Topics discussed include Jean Silva's title prospects should he beat Diego Lopes, Canelo decision to fight Terence Crawford instead of someone his size, the start to the newest edition of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 137 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Borg. Sorry we missed last week for UFC Paris, but things have just been mighty hectic in my personal and professional life lately, and it has been harder and harder to set the time aside to get these out as appropriate, frankly. And on that note, this one's even out a little bit late because of some scheduling conflicts, There's a bunch of stuff going on.

But Nocha UFC, it's a big fight weekend. Gotta do it because it's not just Nochay UFC this weekend. It is also the big one, boys and girls, ladies and gentlemen, talking of course, it's Canello Crawford. That, I mean, that whole fight card ain't much, but the Canello Crawford part of that fight card, it's the biggest thing happening this week. And so we will certainly speak about that as well. no guest because I wanted to I mean I wanted to talk about both of them I didn't have anybody lined up

looking to get a guest for us as we move forward because again I mentioned this before the slate of UFC events pretty rock solid right now we've got noche this week we will have a week off following noche so that'll be a bit nice but then we will cruise into UFC Perth UFC 320

UFC Rio UFC Vancouver UFC Abu Dhabi It's a straight set of bars dropping In the very near future here And we'll try and get some guests on for all of those But for now you just got me And for those who don't know

I'm Jed Meshou Meritaminufine.com Thanks for tuning in As we talk Canelo Crawford And Noce UFC I want to say that this is Noce 3 We will say that will save Canello Crawford for last, though it's saved the best for last, you know,

biggest five of the weekend. And this is, you know, ostensibly an MMA betting podcast first. So let's talk about the event. First, though, very briefly, no action last week on UFC Paris. I did put a column up with a couple of bets that failed. But as far as this podcast is concerned, no action. So the last time out was UFC Shanghai where slightly up, but the climb did die, unfortunately. I did end up slightly in the black, which was nice to get some profit back.

Still a horrendous year. We're doing extremely poorly monetarily. So again, your best bet is to, I probably saved you money by not doing a podcast last week, unless, of course, you're just fading me because I am Yanni, the Greek levels of failure at this point this year, can't buy a win. But we did at least get one, even if it came at the expense of the climb. But ladies and gentlemen, this week's climb, it's going to be something special. I'm excited for.

You probably know what the climb is, but what you don't know, this is version 8 of the climb and 8. 8 is my lucky number, ladies and gentlemen. I was born August 8, 1988, 8, 8, 88, and I weighed 8 pounds and 8 ounces when I was born. The good spirits are with us. Climb 8 straight to the top baby. The road to 10,000 will start this weekend. So let's dive into this weekend.

Noce UFC 3, aka UFC fight night San Antonio UFC Diego Lopez versus Jean Silva, because that is our main event. Lord Silva taking on Diego Lopez. Lopez coming in off that lost Alexander Volcanowski at UC314, whereas Jean Silva, a big performance here, and he might be the next guy fighting Alexander Volcanovsky. I know there are rumors that Volcanovsky looking to defend his belt, possibly in to possibly against Lorone Murphy. Certainly, I would say that seems to be where the momentum is. But if Jean-Sovic could come out here and put on a performance over Diego Lopez,

wouldn't shock me. Popular guy, big event. Diego Lopez is popular. Fighting nerds gets over in a massive way. It could happen. And so he is fighting for possibly a title fight. And frankly, even if he isn't the next guy, he would almost certainly be the backup upfighter for for that potential Volk-Murphy fight.

Lopez probably not fighting in the same thing since he just lost to Volcanovsky, but if Laurel Murphy beats Volcanovsky, Lopez right there in the mix. And certainly you don't want to lose two in a row ever if you're at near the top of the sport. So a lot on the line in the main event, five rounds in the featherweight division. And this should just come as no surprise to anybody where I'm at on this. I have been about the biggest supporter of Jean Silva from day. one back off contender series.

I loved this kid. I thought he was awesome. I've stated many times. I think he is fighting nerd's best bet to win a belt. Not just because he's obviously very close to fighting for one right now, but I think he is probably the most talented of the fighting nerds guys, or at least the guy who I think is putting it together the best of that crop of young fighters. And that being said, I think this fight's really tough. Right? Like, this is great matchmaking for a number of reasons.

I think this can be a hugely difficult fight for Jean Silva. Diego Lopez is, frankly, enormous. And yes, he is massively hitable on the feet. We have seen that, but he will have a substantial size advantage coming into this one over John Silva. And he can take a shot, you know. He has been knocked out a couple of times, but he hasn't been stopped since 2018. We've seen him eat some pretty big shots because he does sort of throw his chin out

there. And so that size, the sort of go-go-go-go nature of his gas tank, his grappling ability. I think these can all be pretty big issues for Jean Silva with what we've seen. But I'm still back on my board, right? I think he's talented enough to mostly keep Diego Lopez off of him, create scrambles when necessary in the grappling exchanges to survive, stay safe, get back to his feet. And on the feet, Diego Lopez is simply too predictable. He is a very roat striker. It can be effective, but he's going to leap in, duck his head, wing some big power shots. And I think John Silva's, he's just levels above that. He's going to piece him up on the feet.

But I do put a lot of stock in Diego Lopez's chin, his ability to take punishment, that sort of fighting spirit that he has. And so instead of taking John Silva at minus 230, which is where the books have him roughly lined at the time of this with Lopez back at plus 200, we went for a little same game parlay action, as some betting websites call it, Jean Silva and the over two and a half. That gets you to plus money. If you just want to do Jean-Silva in the over one and a half, I saw it about even money around minus one-tenth-ish, and I don't think that's bad at all.

But I decided, let's take a little bit of extra juice. Let's get a little bit of positive momentum here on this because I think Diego Lopez's durability is going to keep him in this for a while, even if he is getting shot up. Maybe it's a late stoppage, but if this were a three-rounder, I would suspect this goes to the cards. So give me that little parlay for positive money, and we are going to move on down the road because we got a lot of fights to talk about, even though I won't be speaking about all of them. And certainly none of them in as much depth as we did that main event. The co-main event, a ban on weight matchup is Rob Font takes on David Martinez font, minus 130 betting favorite to come back on Martinez, around plus 110, depending on yours. book. Fonts on a two-fire winning streak, man. The ageless wonder just keeps doing it coming

off that split decision win over Jean Matsumoto most recently, though frankly I scored the fight for Jean Matamato. Not a robbery, extremely close fight. It was pretty much split down the middle, you know, and a great performance. Pride rules Rob Font was certainly doing better as the fight closed down. So no issue with him getting that win, even though I didn't think it. And now he gets another guy that was very high on coming off contender series and David Martinez. Martinez, a guy who, like John Matsumoto, I graded as one of my top prospects on the season. Really well-rounded fighter, you know, I think I comped him to, who did I comp him to?

I'd have to go and take a look at who I comped him to. I can't remember off the top of my head. I have to find it. But basically the talking point for Dave Martinez is, you know, not a jack of all trades master of none, doesn't really have a standout superpower, but extremely well-rounded. He can compete in all phases. And I think that that means he will have a competitive loss to Rob Font this weekend. Font, he's getting near the end of it.

And if this is the fight that puts him over, again, I thought he lost to John Matsumoto. Though I do think John Matsumoto a little bit better for Prospect of Martinez. Maybe this one just gets him over. But I think Font just has that super crisp boxing and having a clear advantage in one phase. to me brings a lot of, gives him the edge, makes him the deserving favorite. Also, just realized I comp to David Martinez to Jonathan Martinez. There's a little bit of Jonathan Martinez in him. And so I'm going to back rob font here at minus 130.

Maybe not the best bet I've ever made because I do think the odds are pretty close to correct. But I think just the superior boxing that sort of experience edge, they'll pay a lot of dividends here. and he'll win another close one over a guy who I think is a very bright future. David Martinez is only 27 years old, so we've got a lot of leg in the sport, even if he suffers a prospect setback loss this weekend. When I got a great deal on a great gift at winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter.

It's just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister, this gold watch for my partner, A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss? Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less.

Moving on to a lightweight contest. Rafa Garcia taking on Jared Gordon. Garcia, the betting underdog plus 205, Gordon the favorite minus 250. Gordon. Knocked out Tiago Moises back in May, while Garcia took a unanimousal. his decision win over Vince Bichelle back in March. And I think that that probably tells you the story of this fight. Tiago Moises S is a good fighter, who's probably a little past his prime, but a good fighter,

and Jared Gordon knocked him out, whereas Vince Bichel was never the quality of fighter Tiago Mose S was, and Garcia only went to a U.D with him. And Vince Bichel's older and kind of more past his prime. You know, if Garcia is going to win this, he's going to need to use that grappling game. He's going to need to score takedowns, control on the front. floor threatened. But I think, you know, Gordon is just going to have a very Jared Gordon fight where he's going to stop a lot of takedowns, maybe not all of them, but he's a veteran grappler. He knows how to avoid danger, get back to his feet, presses advantage with volume and pace. And so he probably

just has a classic Jared Gordon sort of performance. Though the knockout over Tiago Moises makes me like, okay, maybe he's finding a little bit more pop. Let's see as it develops. I think he's a justifiable favorite, but I'm not. I'm not taking any action on this. And similarly, I wanted to take some action on the next one. And then I just thought, I shouldn't do it because I'm talking. Of course, a middleweight contest between Calvin Gastilum and Dustin Stoltzvus. Gaslum, you're betting favorite of my minus 260 to come back on Stoltzvus, plus 210-ish.

Both men coming off from Navist's decision losses, Gastilum to Joe Pfeer in June. Stoltz was a loss to Nersulton Ruzobayev back in men. and the short version of this fight is this would be the worst guy Kelvin Gasolam's ever lost to. I have been on the train for a long time that Kelvin Gasolam is, you know, good fighter, not a great fighter, and, you know, got some favorable matchups at various points to ascend, and he got a lot of promotional push, but he's probably never as good as people, some people thought he was. But Dustin Stolfeitz is not, he's just not in that category. And so if Gasselan loses this, it would be a really bad sign for him.

I don't think he will, but I just can't trust him, given the chaotic nature of his career at this stage. I bet him against Joe Pfeiffer. I thought he was a live dog. And then he just really didn't have much to offer in that fight. So I think Gassel's a favorite. I just, I can't trust him. If you can, Godspeed, I hope that works out for you. We keep rolling to a Bannonweight contest that I have, frankly, nothing to see.

say because is Santiago Luna taking on Kwong Li Li your underdog plus 114, Luna minus 125, Kwongle coming off a winner of a Gaston Balanos in May, Luna making his UFC debut and I just straight up don't know anything about him. And so I can't speak intelligently on this fight whatsoever. And so we're just, we're going to breeze right past this because I think this is a main card fight? I've seen conflicting reports with this as main of prelims, but it's Alexander Hernandez taking on Carlos Diego Faheda. This fight rocks. Fights a terrific matchup of, of, you know, top 25 lightweights, and that's where the good stuff is. Hernandez minus 120 to come back on CDF plus

one hundo. Hernandez on three fight losing or winning streak, sorry, and coming off that TKO win over Chase Hooper back in August, CDF lost to Grant Dawson in. January in a classic Grant Dawson fight. The question with CDF is always, is this the last one? He is old. He is older than me, old, which makes him old, old. And so is this it? You know, this guy's, I think he is 40, but if he's not 40, he turns 40 this year.

How much does he have left? And yet every time he shows he's still got a pretty good chunk of gas going on, just one of those guys who, his athleticist. doesn't seem to be fading hugely and still brings a lot of things to the table. And specifically, I think he brings some stuff that can be problematic for Alexander Hernandez. Hernandez on that great winning streak and credit to him for knocking out Chase Hooper, but that was really a veteran knockout win for him. Chase Hooper was winning the fight and then Stone just got lazy at the very end of the

round and got clipped. CDF's not going to do that. CDF can bring a grappling game that can be a huge problem for Alexander Hernandez. plus he's also just, I think he's more, even at this age, more explosive on the feet and can win there. I think CDF should be the favorite in this fight despite the age gap. And so I got him at plus 100. I feel pretty good about that bet. We keep rolling down to a middleweight matchup as Jose Daniel Medina takes on Dusco Todorovich.

Medina plus 260, Todorovich, minus 325. both fighters on a three-fight losing streak. Funky cold Medina got knocked out by a Tibigotea in March, and Todorovich lost a unanimous decision to Zach Reese in May. Very simply, don't bet on pink slip derbies, and that's what we got here. Two guys on three-fight losing streaks, whoever loses, they're walking.

That sort of motivation makes things a little wonky. I wouldn't feel confident in any way about this. Todorovich, I think, is probably just a superior fighter at the stages of their career. So it brings a little more physicality to the cage, but wouldn't lay these odds on him with a 10-foot pole. So pass, and I encourage everyone else to pass. As we move down the road, we keep zipping along because we're on a lightweight contest. Claudio Puez takes on Joachim Silva.

Puez, minus 115, Silva, minus 105. Some places have this straight, even, very competitive fight. Frankly, a fight that I like a good deal. Poyez on a two-fight losing streak. Silva, UNFSA lost to Drakar close in May of 2024.

UFC 301, he has not fought well over a year at this point. Big, long stretch out for Silva. And given the long layoff and sort of the matchup here, I would have thought Claudia Poyas would be a bigger betting favorite than he is, right? Like this is a pick-um

or slight favorite for Puez. But Silva gives us, up a lot of takedowns, you know? And Preya's like, that's his game. He wants to get on top. He's a good, solid grappler. Silva hasn't fought in well over a year. I feel like he should be a bigger favorite than the odds makers are giving him right now. And so that is my last bet of this evening.

But for a climb, which we'll get to right now, ladies, well, also not my last bet because there's boxing. Last bet of the MMA card of Noce UFC. But we have a climb. And let's get to that climb right now. now because it's Dantiana Suarez taking on Amanda Limosch in a women's strawweight contest. Suarez minus 440 favorite Amanda Limoush plus 340. Suarez coming off a unanimous decision loss to Zhang Wei Lee earlier this year for the

strawweight title in a dumb, quite possibly the best performance of Zhang's title run. Limosch, unanimous decision win over Yasmin Lucindo at UFC 313, just a month later. this was a really easy one. We wanted to climb. This is how we start the way up the mountain. It's Tatiana Suarez. I know she lost away to Zhang Wei. Amanda Lemosch is not Zhang Wei.

She gives up a lot of takedowns. She's tried to improve her defensive grappling. It is simply not going to be good enough. She is not dangerous enough to super threaten Tatiana Suarez. I think that the odds reflect exactly how this fight will go. unfortunately I didn't get Tatanas Suarez at this price. I got her at minus 475, but that's well within our climb zone.

For those who don't know, the climb is my pet project. I've been trying. We got really high up the mountain. Our fourth iteration, haven't been close to it since. This is like a friggin' iron monstream. But the climb,

the effort of the climb is to take 30, 28, I think, actually, but 30 is the number we're going with for funzies. minus 500 bets and parlay them together. One after the other, after the other to climb up this mountain to take $100 and turn it into $10,000 with a series of minus 500 bets. We've had one successful or semi-successful run. We got up to 21.

Haven't been near that since. But this, Climb 8, lucky number, baby. Let's go. Eight ball straight to the top. And let's zip through the remainder here. as we have a flyweight context between Jesus Aguilar and Luis Garouli. Garulay minus 220 Aguilar plus 180. Aguilar coming in the United States and lost to Rafael Estevom in February.

Garulei. Knock out of loss to O'Day, I was born in April. Aguilar needs takedowns. He can get him. Grulay's giving up a bunch of them. He gave up to Nick Piccanini on Contender Series. He gave up like 20. Like that's almost not even an exaggeration.

It was a lot of takedowns. And so, Aguilar probably get him, but Grul is way more active. You think he's good enough to not get tapped. But either way, I just, I don't want to be involved in this fight. So I'm not involved in this fight. Another fight I'm not involved, so that I will not even be breaking it down. Zachary, Sajdrich Dumas.

Zerich Duma, should not be in the UFC. If you don't know why, go Google, Sardrik Dumas. And that should be enough. And so I will not give this fight any credence or any of my time because I don't believe it should be happening. that takes us to a flyway contest Alessandro Costa takes on Alden Coria Coria plus 350 underdog

Costa minus 455 Costa 1 U.S.C. debut against Kevin Borjas in May Coria making his U.C. debut and I straight up don't know anything about Alan Coria. And so it's good that he's not a huge betting favorite. Just not going to bet a dude on a fight with a dude I did not see any tape of.

similarly alice beheada taking on mansettan monserrat rindon in a women's bansomweight contest perrera going to make the become the youngest fighter in the ufc at 19 years old she's a slight betting favorite minus 150 over rindon who's plus one tonny rindon been around the block for a little bit certainly more experienced never lay minus 50 150 on a 19 year old making their ufc debut i've said this about all sorts of things but like just think back to when you were 19. And maybe you're not a professional athlete, right? But think about like the day you might just wake up and have at 19 because you got

some pimples or your hormones were out of whack or whatever because you're 19 and you're 19. Now imagine being 19 and having a fist fight. Even though you've had a few, this is what you do ostensibly. It's still just I, you should never trust your money with a 19 year old. Just don't do it. It's bad idea. So no bet for me.

And the final fight, the first fight of the evening, a welterweight, tough finale fight between Rodrigo, Sazanoando and Daniel Donchenko. The fight was originally scheduled for a few weeks ago. Cezanato got injured, got pushed back to here. Donchenko, minus 2.15. Cezanato plus 180. Once upon a time, I asked my good friend, Alexander K. Lee, who, you know, predicts these things and is a is the tough watcher that I know he seemed to believe that

Donchenko is probably going to win this fight but I I'm just not going to take his word for it it's a hard pass for me and now let's get to the big fight of the weekend I wanted to get this done in 30 minutes and now I believe confidently we will because Sao O'Neillano Alvarez taking on Terrence Crawford for the super middleweight undisputed title at Allegiance Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday evening, live on Netflix. Look, I don't think this fight is going to be fun, frankly, but this is a spectacle. This is a fight that has been talked about for years. And as a result, it's a fight that I'm pretty interested in just because things like this don't happen.

Crawford moving up several weight classes. Canello has stopped taking his title reign seriously, functionally, and that's okay. He's in the get that bag stage of his career, and goodness knows he's getting that bag to fight a man much smaller than him. Al Canello is a minus 180 betting favorite over Terrence Crawford plus 140. Now, this is the part where I say, I mean, I don't know boxing as well as I know in the I'm a big boxing fan. I watch a lot of boxing. I'm not totally ignorant, but my expertise is in MMA.

That being said, my expertise in MMA has led me to a horrifically bad year of betting. So is it expertise? I don't know. I think these odds are categorically insane. I think Canello should be a sizable betting favorite in the same way that he's a sizable man over Terrence Crawford. I think Terrence Crawford is probably the actual like pound for pound best fighter in the sport right now. But he's giving up a lot of weight in this move up. And the most important thing, the thing I've been sort of telling friends, et cetera, as they come out to me as this is,

Canello is in the Floyd Mayweather stage of his career. He's not taking the fight unless he knows he's going to win. You know, there's just no upside to him taking a fight against a man much smaller than him. When he can get paid also a lot of money to take on a fight he can win. This is, this fight is the nexus of the most amount of money I can make with the least amount of risk in Canello's mind. and I think that we should give him credence and understanding what he can and cannot accomplish at this stage of his career.

I mean, when we saw Terrence Crawford move up, that was last year. I want to actually, when was the Terrence Crawford thing fight? Let me take a look because I just, I want to make sure I get this right because it was not earlier this year unless my time. No, the Madrimov fight was last summer. Okay, I was making 100% sure.

We saw him move up to light, middle weight. or junior middleweight. And he won that fight, but that fight against Madrimov looked like he was having issues navigating size. This is a big bump up for him. And so I think Canelo at minus 180 is a gift. I looked at some of the props. While I do favor this fight to go long, I don't know.

Canelo does hit really hard and he's going against a much smaller man. maybe it just takes one. I don't really feel confident in a method. I am confident that Canello knows what he's doing. Canello, you know, for his four-bowls, is an incredibly talented fighter, you know, one of the best in the world still. And he's getting some massive physical advantages in this one.

So I think the odds should just be much bigger than they are. And so I hammered it. I threw just a pile on it at a, thing. And so maybe that'll come back to bite me in the ass. I guess we'll find out. But that's it, ladies and gentlemen. That is this weekend's fights. Frankly, I am

very, very excited about this weekend's fights. It's not often you get two fight cards that I would consider very, very good. And I straight up just believe we have gotten that here. I'm pretty pumped. Noche UFC is going to be a banger.

Canelo Crawford, like I said, I don't know that the fight will be fun, but it will be big. it will be important and it's free on Netflix assuming you have Netflix. If you don't, keep it locked at MAAfighting.com for all your coverage needs about everything. Like I mentioned at the top of the show, we're off next week. There's some other stuff going on, but we won't have a show next week because there's no big in the event. But then we're back and we are cruising once we are back because it's the slate of UFC event. We're not in the apex for a while, folks, because it's Perth.

It's Team Oval Arena. It's Rio, Vancouver, Abu Dada. be, uh, we're not back in the apex until November. So buckle up. We're going to have a hell of a good time, uh, two weeks from now. Until then, enjoy the fights this weekend. Love y'all.