MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Best Bets For Saturday's Heavyweight Double Header With UFC Vegas 68 and Bellator 290

Episode Date: February 1, 2023

After taking a week off, the UFC is back and, for the first time in 2023, so is Bellator! UFC Vegas 68 takes place late on Saturday, headlined by a heavyweight title between Derrick Lewis and Sergey Spivak, but before that, all-time great Fedor Emelianenko makes the final walk of his career, challenging Ryan Bader for the heavyweight title at Bellator 290. And as always, the No Bets Barred boys are back as well, covering all the best betting angles for both cards. In this episode, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew dissect both fight cards and answer important questions like: does Derrick Lewis have anything left, is Johnny Eblen as good as he looked his last time out, and should you bet Tatsuro Taira at -1150? Plus, you'll hear Conner and Jed react as the betting line on Ryan Bader PLUMMETS in real time. Tune in for Episode 33 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What is going on, y'all. We are back. It is another edition of No Betts barred this time. UFC Vegas 68 in the apex. Wish it was in the, you know, Korea, Southeast. It is what it is. We've also got Bellator 290, the return to CBS for the promotion. A lot of fights this weekend got some boxing matches.

I got a couple bets down that I'll throw out there to you guys. It's good to be back. We got a weekend off from Combat Sports unless... Not for you, good saying. You want to count the Royal Rumble. I mean, it is combat sports. But yeah, it's good to be back, Jed. How are we feeling, man?

You know, it would be better to be back if, like you said, if this was happening in Seoul, I know that was kind of the original target. Oh, that would be nice. We were talking off air. This would, the fights could be the same. And it would at least feel better because these Road to the UFC fights like, I don't want to speak for you. I haven't watched a second of Road to the UFC.

I have now. I have now. I've watched the highlights from some of these fights. But I mean, there's no doubt. There's no doubt that this would be better because. you have those home guys. You got the home cook and the crowd would be going nuts for them. It would be a much more special moment for these dudes. Imagine winning the road to UFC tournament finale. You get the UFC contract in front of your home crowd. Everyone's going crazy.

I'm assuming your whole family would be there. It would be such a more special moment. And it would also be like, oh yeah, it's a 1 a.m. main card start on the East Coast because it's in Korea. not because it's in the apex and it was supposed to be in Korea. Yeah, and it's, and it like, if you knew nothing, if I knew nothing about it in me, and I just looked at this card, I went to Tapology, I'd be like, why is this happening in Las Vegas? They're like, like, eight Koreans or something like that on the 12, in the 12 fights. Like, that's, this very clearly didn't go the way that they were planning it. And it's super weird because, again, the fights could be the same, but at least the,

energy and the fact I know I know you and esteemed the great the wonderful era of Hawani always on this. The apex is a tough hang for anything. It's going to make it even worse for this event, which is a

look, let's just call what it is. One of the weaker offerings the UFC's given us. And that's saying something. We've had that conversation semi-regularly the past, you know, the past year. This may be the worst of the bunch on paper.

So, no doubt. And I think, I think a lot of it has to do with it being the road to UFC fights, which would make it a lot, a lot cooler if it was in Korea. And like, you know, it is fights. You know, you can say that. But it's just like, this is one of the lesser cards that I've seen since we've started doing no bet's part. I mean, if you just break it down, like, I didn't know who any of these guys were on road

to UFC. I'm sorry. I didn't. I had to research them. I had to find out. And that takes up four of these fights. So, yeah, I mean, I really just don't understand. Like, some people when I, like, hate on the apex will hit me up and be like, I don't

understand the hate for the apex. I'm like, I'll counter that with, I don't understand the love for the apex. What is there to like? It's an empty arena. Like, I mean, if we were watching any other sporting event in an empty arena right now, I would be like, why are we doing this here? Yeah. I mean, it's, I don't mind the apex if the apex hadn't become the default, the standard, right?

Like, it's, if you're just, it makes sense to me as a, hey, here's a consistent place for us to do business. If they're putting on one of their shows a month in the apex, I'm not, I'm not going to care or be excited about it because it literally brings nothing to the table. But I also just like, that would be fine. but when every fight card is in an empty arena and you've got Joe Martinez hitting the intros of ladies and make some noise if you are ready and there's nobody there to make noise. So it's just like it's it's like watching,

frankly it is like watching that season. This probably predated your fandom. They did a live season of the Ultimate Fighter where the fights were live trying to add some spice to it was like that because it's the same thing. there are only a handful of people in attendance. So it's just like watching two fights happen in an empty area. And that takes, you can feel that energy through the television.

You really can. Oh, dude, there's no doubt. Crowds make these sporting events so much better. It's not even funny. Honestly, honestly, I thought to tie this into where I think we need to at least briefly discuss Brazil two weeks ago, that crowd was dead. That crowd did not, was not what I was anticipating. at all. Oh, it let me down heavy.

Yeah, and that was part, I was really excited. Like, the return to Brazil, this place is going to go just off the chain. It's going to be nuts. And it's going to be so exciting, electric. And the fights were pretty good, you know, really good, frankly, like a very solid event top to bottom. But the crowd was shockingly not into it. And that really, I noticed that in my viewing experience. I was coming in anticipating London.

and I got, I mean, better than the apex, but I wouldn't feel in it, man. I don't know about you. No, I'm with you. And I mean, doing the watch party, like I was kind of like half tuned into the crowd. I think the moment that I hit it the most was when Glover to Cher was getting introduced. And it was like, man, it feels pretty weak for a guy trying to get the light heavyweight title in his home country right now. It did feel weak. Honestly, when I heard that this fight card was originally going to be in Korea, I mean, we go all out here.

into the gimmicks. I was ready to have some Korean barbecue for dinner. Like, you know, I was, I was ready to go all out. Um, kimchi. I was, I was all in on that now. I don't know. I don't know if I'm going to do the Korean barbecue. Maybe, maybe we can cook something up on this very show. Uh, but just quickly lasting on the apex, MMA on point, uh, they did a great piece on just how many fights there have been at the apex. And this is UFC apex 68. Plus during the pandemic, there were a few pay-per-view cards that ended up having there as well i think it's talking like 73 events times 12 fights an event dude it's like 72 73 events now that the apex and then that's not even counting like uh Dana white contender series uh anything else that is that has happened there

tough competitions uh like they are they are getting their use out of the ape going to be close to a thousand fights there pretty soon if it hasn't hit it already and i and i hate that like what you said it is the default now. Like it feels special that we're doing UFC San Antonio because it's a fight night that isn't happening at the apex. Like I needed to get to the part where the default is to do it in a city like San Antonio and then you get the one-offs at the apex. My hope, I've been thinking about this.

My hope is that we're going to make our way to what I think is the optimal UFC schedule of they're currently running like between 42 and 46 events a year. because they're contractually obligated to hit like 42 is the magic number for them with their USB and do. And I would hope that that number can pair back a little bit because I think the ideal UFC schedule is three events a month. You get three events a month. You get one's the pay-per-view.

It's the big event. You get one road show, Orlando, wherever it is your go and you do that. And then you do one at the apex. And it's consistent. And then you get a weekend. You get one weekend. that's still 36 events a year, you know, give or take 36 if you're sticking strictly to three events a month. And I think that that's ideal because then the other part of this fight card we're going to talk about,

it's not just that it's an event at the apex. This fight card, Derek Lewis, Sergei Spivak is a, it is a, it's a main event by definition, but man, Derek Lewis is not the dude. any like he's still a compelling figure in some ways but it's on a three or four fight losing streak like tell me the states they don't have the bodies to fill up 42 events a year with quality main and co-mains and good cards and so you're getting some really watered down product i think if we tell me the stakes of this card oh uh the only stakes on road to the ufc they can they can get ufc contracts Those are probably the actual biggest stakes in the card, frankly.

The only fights on this card outside of that that I think have real stakes, if Sergei Spivak wins, that's pretty meaningful for his career. If Derek Lewis loses, well, that sucks. But even if Derek loses wins, it does nothing. If Spiebac wins, he can start trying to make a march up the heavyweight title. and then realistically, I think the second most important fight on this card is Du Ho Troy, Korean Superboy will get into it. But if he loses this, I mean, this was a super promising prospect, still incredibly talented,

but he's lost three in a row, which is tough, you know. It's really, really tough from that. One of those fight of the year, great, great guy, and we'll see how that shakes out. But that's it. I mean, if you want to, I guess Ty Burrow, Evenov is for like a top 15-ish spot, but... All right, yeah, I mean... The opener, Tatsu-Taira is probably the...

Like, that's probably the best fight on the card and the most meaningful long-term. Because I don't think Sergey Spivak is going to fight for a belt, even if he beats Dair Cluess, so it's... 100%. 100%. You are essentially making my point. The stakes are tough to find in this one.

Coming off from UFC 283, where the stakes were just abundant in almost every single fight that we were going into, I mean, two title fights as well. Just a quick recap of 2804. The biggest stakes literally in the entire possibility of the sport, there is nothing here. This is watered down water compared to the main courses that we just had. It's a fight card that in five months we will likely be laughing about being like, and you remember the Korean card at the apex?

It'll, I mean, that is essentially what it'll be. We'll look back on it fondly. Hopefully, they would make some money off of it. They would never do this. I would love it if the UFC just treated this like a UFC Korea, just hosting it in the apex, but like just went forward. They didn't change the graphics. It just did it all.

It would be phenomenal. I mean, I did see someone post the YouTube teaser for this. And it, the voiceover still said November 19th. Yeah. That was sick. Like they just, they're just mailing this one in. They know.

UFC 283, I got slaughtered, but flywood unders are 3 in oh in the year. So I mean, how can I possibly be down? There's such a thing. There's such a thing. I really got murked on 283.

The main event going the distance was just like, who saw that coming? That was like a nine unit swing for me. Like as it was, as the rounds were going on and I was realizing, dude, I'm on that watch party. And as the rounds are going on, and I'm doing the math in my head, how important it is that this fight doesn't go to a decision, because I really saw no world where it went to a decision.

A nice reminder that there are no locks. There never will be any locks. And like, as it's going on, I'm like, oh, my God, if this goes to a decision, like, this is really going to hurt me. When I got home and did the math, I was like, wow, that really hurt me. Like, we're talking like a- Mine is a big swing. Dude, I would have-exposure. Oh, you way too much, which is actually nice.

It's nice for this to happen early on in the year. kind of buckle back down remember like let's not get too overexposed on things let's keep it tight that's how we stay profitable uh but yeah i got home did the math like i would have finished the night up like two units had they gotten a finish would have finished the night up like four units had it ended under the two and a half which it looked like it was about to at one point uh but yeah last i ended up down like six point nine uh just got massacred and it really all came down to that last fight uh that's unfortunate I had a good week. I finished up 2.76 units.

That's nice. That's nice. I hit a couple of big money shots in there. I lost way more bets than I won. Yeah. Like by a, because we talked before and I ended up having me 14 or 15 bets down. I was like, this is dumb.

There's no way I can make money with this. But then I hit a couple of big underdog shots. The heavyweight overs, we're going to talk about them in this card, baby, but I know that that one that one burned you. But Almeida and Rockimov was How nervous? How nervous were you when he had him fully mounted for the final minute of the first round?

It was the best as the most alive I've ever felt because I was just, I was screaming at my television cheat, cheat, grab his gloves, cheat, do anything to just make it to the end of the round. I mean, Jelta Rometa just toyed with him. Like he just toyed with him. He was like, you know what? We'll make it to the end of the first round.

just so I can reiterate how much I'm dominating this fight. I saw someone, someone came to me on Twitter and it was just like, I think Jailton got exposed tonight that he's really going to struggle with that weight difference. I was like, you have to be trolling, dude. And he was like, no, no, 30 pounds made a big difference. I'm like, if that's what struggling is, this man is going to be a double champion. I'm not sure. Did Abdur Aukhama even land a strike?

I don't know if that happened. One singular strike. I know Gilbert Burns through a perfect game in the feature. But yeah, that and then the Bonfeme parlay, the Bomb Feme Boy. Shout out to the Bonfiends. Man, they delivered. I've been thinking about a little gimmick parlay this week. So let's get into it.

Let's get into this card. I got a little something. I love gimmick parlay. I got a little something. I low-key. Like, I kind of like it. Kind of like it a lot. It's pretty big plus money.

Pretty big plus money. You know you can always sell me on a. gimmick parlay so i think you're gonna like this let's say let's hop into it uh let's dive right in we'll start with ufc a peg 68 then we'll work our way to bellator 290 uh and then we'll just let the river flow all throughout uh a couple boxing bets at the end because i will be in attendance uh for that one at the hulu theater this weekend shows coming new york i go to shows i'm actually very much looking forward to it uh should be a fun boxing events are just rule they're the best i've really started liking boxing a lot more now obviously it's uh i'm not sitting here watching the minus 20

thousands go off on the undercard but like the very high level stuff like the elite of the elite really started enjoying that a lot more uh i love boxing i better be a fight better be of wild too brilliant now we're going to get him versus biville better be of his um dude can chuck him Boxing, I love high-level boxing. I think, you know, my stance has always been, a high-level boxing is better than high-level M-M-A. You know, anything below high-level, give me MMA over boxing, like, you know, club fighters, et cetera.

I'd rather just watch even a Bellator prelim, but high-level boxing, there's not much better in sports than getting 12 rounds is just, like, so perfect. Three-minute rounds really, it's all just so good in a story and technical sense. I love everything about high in boxing. The hilarity of all this, I had this exact same conversation with New York Rick yesterday,

and he said the exact same things you're saying right now. The storytelling that can be created over the course of a 12-round, three-minute round fight is fantastic. But yeah, we'll get to that at the end of the show. We got to dive in. We got to dive into UFC Korea Apex 68. when we start with the main event, Derek Lewis taking on Sergei Spivak right now. You can have Sergei Spivak as the minus 225 favorite Derek Lewis coming back at plus 190. The over under is set at

one and a half under minus 125 over minus 105. What do we do here, man? Because the way Derek Lewis has been fighting lately, you mentioned it. I cannot really trust him to put my money on him, despite him being a big underdog. And then on the flip side, Sergey Spivak, he has looked good of late, but there's just still something. I just have a hard time putting my money against Derek Lewis at a minus two, 25 price tag, just in case, just in case if he gets caught. I think that that is, that's wise caution, my friend is what I would say.

I have one bet, and it's no surprises here. This is a heavyweight fight. I'm going to live my dreams. I'm taking the heavyweight over. I did get it plus money. It was plus 100 yesterday when I left it in. So I at least got it at an even kick. That number's dropped a little bit.

It might fluctuate back. It's still playing in the same area. It's minus 105 right now. But I'm with you. My Lewis may just be fully shot. It's really hard for me to say that, though, like with confidence, just because Sergey Spivak is a very different fighter than the guys Derek Lewis has lost to in this stretch, you know?

Zero gone. is zero gone. About to fight for the disputed heavyweight title of the world, Taito Ivasa is about as different of a fighter as you can get from Sergey Spivak. And then Sergey Pavlovich might be the greatest fighter we've ever seen. I mean, at this point, the jury is out. The jury is out.

He just melts everyone this moment he touches them. So that's not going to happen with Sergey. I, a big part of me really wants to take an underdog shot on Derek Lewis here. As I know statistically, Lewis gives up a lot of takedowns. He has, uh, Derek Lewis has my favorite jujitsu in all of MMA because it's not really jujitsu by like general standards of it. He's just like, he just says no a lot. Like he did it to Daniel Cormier, he did a bunch of people.

They'll take him down and he'll just be like, I'm good and stand up. in the most absurd way as possible. And it makes you question like, oh, I don't really know. Is Jiu-Jitsu real? Because sometimes Derek Lewis just says it isn't. And then he's back to his feet. And I think he can for sure pull that off against Spiebac.

And then it's a question of whether he can pull the trigger and land the big punch. I mean, Sergey Spivak is, he is not, he's not the best fighter in the world, right? And I guess it really just sort of boils down to that. This man, has been knocked out before. maybe not in the exact same ways that Derek Lewis tends to knock people out, but I am really tempted to take an underdog bet on Lewis. It's just really hard to have any confidence in him. Exactly.

I mean what you just said about Spivak, like, Gasmund knocked out, it might not be in the same ways, but that means he's got the off button and his lights can go out. And Derek Lewis, if anybody's going to put your lights out, Derek Lewis is... You can turn lights out. He's near the top of the list of people that can turn lights out, but I'm with you.

I like, I just have too hard of a ton. trusting him to get it done at this point in his career. I actually don't, I don't hate the overshot. Like it's an over one and a half. I think it has a real shot to, to hit. Like I, this is not a full gimmick. I think this really can hit. I mean, dude, I'm looking at his record right now. Like six of Spivak's previous 10, he's hit over one and a half. I mean, if you're just looking at the UFC, like, I think it's only three of his UFC fights have gone under the one and a half. And like, so in my head, I envision that unless Derek Lewis just kind of pulls off the, the Curtis blades, catch him coming in real early, which could happen, but I don't think that's the most likely. I think Spivak is going to have some success early.

I think he's going to be able to get a takedown or two. The question is, will Derek Lewis just stand up? And if he does, will that, will Spiebac get tired? will he get afraid how it'll go i think this does have a chance to make it in and i will tell you another bet that i'm i don't want to say looking at but uh tickles my fancy and i may throw a couple bucks down yeah just just just throw a couple bucks down just for the fun of it third round slash late fight derrick lewis i know who's the third round jordane is that the oh yeah shout to the charles jordane is not really third round yoa romeo ramero

is the true the one, the only third round fighter. However, there was a stretch there where Derek Lewis was popping off some pretty good efforts in the third round to fight to pull it out. I mean, he didn't knock out, for instance, and gone nobody very likely won that fight with his third round, just kind of throwing some efforts out there, knocked out Marcien Taubura in the third round, knocked out somebody else in the third round. I'm pulling a blank on right now. Victor Pesta.

Victor Pesta. like it's there so maybe it's just a gimmick i might throw out a a derrick lewis in round three uh which is currently paying out at plus 1600 um but i don't that's not a confident bet or anything that's just taking a shot in the dark he does weirdly have uh two fourth round finishes in his numerous uh you know main eventing five round fight career uh once he won once he won't once he lost maybe i tie him in maybe i do a round and four. Can we briefly talk about how sad I was? I had Brandon Moreno to win in round four.

And I was a second, a second to weigh from that. That is brutal. That is a. And I genuinely considered beforehand taking the, because you can do round one and two, around three and four, round five, and decision bets. I briefly considered that, but like it basically have the odds. And I was like, no, I'm just going to shoot from the hip at this round four. Oh, oh, what a dagger.

Would have been incredible. What I did with this fight kept it simple, parlay piece, fight doesn't go to a decision, maybe Speedback wrestling. Wow, you're going back to the well. Going right back to the well. The only way to shake it off is to just go right back. Is this going to be the new sub-propped for you? Just repeatedly breaking your heart?

If this goes to a decision, yeah, I'm going to have to have some serious pause moving forward. because, I mean, Derek Lewis just, he ain't here for 25-minute fights. He's said it on the mic before. Yes, he's had many, many, many, many main events in the UFC, never gone the full 25 minutes. 21 of his 25 UFC fights have knocked onto a decision. I mean, I think he's either starching him or Spivax wearing on him to where eventually Derek Lewis is just going to quit.

That's something to keep an eye on. If this thing goes to a decision, we might be in real trouble here. it would be, I don't want it to happen because I don't want bad things happen to my friends. It would be objectively funny, though. I just have to throw it out there. The content would be 3.45 a.m. and Derek Lewis and Sergey Spey and Beck are going the full 25. I forget that it's going to be that deep. It's going to be so late when this is happening.

Yeah. There's a very real chance with me going to these boxing matches. I pass out on my couch. If this fight goes to a decision. there's a thousand percent chance I will fall asleep watching it. Yeah. I mean,

this is, if you had to line me being able to stay up for every single one of these fights, it's, it's like minus 400 now. I think there's a real chance. I'm taking a nap during this. And if at any point,

if at any point I make the move from the couch to the bed, it's like, no one's going to stay up and watch these with me. Everyone in my house is going to be passed out. Yeah. Yeah, there's a very real chance that I'm just out for the count. I wake up, check to see if I had a winning week. People are talking about some bangers.

I go back and review. I'm just be honest with everyone, you know. I'm training for this half marathon. I've got to do my long runs on Sundays. Oh, you're, so I'm running a marathon in April. Full marathon. Full marathon. Oh, God.

I'm doing a half at the end of February. All right. That just sort of, that was not part of the plan, but there's one in Atlanta. and my sister's flying in to run it. And I was like, oh, I guess it actually lines up with my schedule. I, too, am a Sunday. Sunday's my big run day. So, hate it.

I hate it. How's the training going? Please tell me, as I am a marathon finisher. So this would be my second marathon. Oh, God. My first one, that's a story. Well, I wanted to run another one because my first one is pre-COVID, so it's been a long time. About as bad as a marathon can go, I think.

Actually, same for me. My training went really well. I felt great, and everything that could have gone wrong went wrong. I ended up losing every one of my toenails after that. I don't know why you're doing it again, dude. I really don't know why. As soon as I crossed the finish line, I was like, I'm done. I really enjoyed the, I didn't think I would.

I enjoyed the training. And my marathon was really, really bad. my time was terrible because my feet like just died for the for whatever reason so now I'm I want to do it better and it's been several years so I forgot how bad the three months after it was so yeah yeah my knee uh my knee just like completely blew out uh about a month beforehand I started like I went on a 20-mile there for training and I started feeling it and then like mile eight just total blowout had to finish the last 18 on on one leg. Terrible. We'll never do it again. 13 miles is a nice, is a nice medium grade for me.

15 miles is actually like a totally good run. Like I've, I enjoy halves now. Yeah, I can actually target a time, not just to finish. Good times. Marshall's buyers travel far and wide, hustling for great deals on amazing gifts. So you don't have to. They've bagged this season's Italian leather handbags. Designer. Hand-picked the finest sweaters from the rest. Ooh, cashmere. Landed makeup pallets from the brands you love.

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This fall get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. Let's keep it rolling, though. Fun little detour. So we cannot talk about this fight. Yeah, long run on Sunday. Don't know if I'm going to make it through all these fights.

Either way, let's move to the co-main event of the evening. It is a light, heavy weight bout. We've got Da'anjung taking on Devin Clark. Right now, you can have Da'anjung for minus 240. Devin Clark coming back at plus 200, over under set at 2.5, under minus 155 over plus 125. I kind of like the Anjong, just period, as a fighter, though he wrecked me because I bet Kennedy and Zechwu against him.

But then I did fight, I did bet Dustin Jacoby last year at UFC Long Island. I went back and watched that. Man, I was going crazy in the crowd. I was at that one. That was a pretty premature stoppage. in my opinion. It felt like Don Juncks still had his wits about him. And I saw someone on Twitter, like talking about it being like a devastating chaos.

I was like, I don't know, he kind of popped right back up and was immediately complaining to the ref. Anyway, big power. 11 of his 15 wins are by knockout. I went back and watched some tape on Devin Clark. I mean, he got melted in the second and third round against Osamot Mirzikanov. He just doesn't really have like that great of hands. Like going back and watching the Kudalaba fight, Kudalaba kind of did what he wanted to in that one,

and that's not really saying that much. Did some deep breakdown on the numbers here. Evan Clark likes to get takedowns. Seven UFC wins, seven UFC losses. And his seven UFC wins, 20 takedowns. And his seven UFC losses, four takedons. I think he's like a Juko national champion. So yes, he does like to wrestle, certainly.

In those seven losses, where he's only gotten four combined, buying takedowns, he has never had more significant strikes than his opponent. Don Jung, 88% takedown defense. Also, the bigger fighter in this situation, four inches taller. I think it's going to stay standing. I think he's going to be able to stuff those takedowns. He's also got a three-inch reach advantage. I think he's just going to piece him up on the feed. He is no doubt the better fighter when it stays on the feed. I think he's got big power. I think we're going to see something somewhat similar to that Osama Merzikana fight. And I did take Don Jung. Didn't take the money line. Took him by KOT, Kato, plus.

one 40 just threw a half unit on it. I think you get some out of that. I think he gets it done. Don't hate to bet. I'm on the money line for a parley piece. Full disclosure. I just have some floating parley pieces. I don't entirely know what I'm going to do with them.

I'm going to figure them out how I want to do it. But I agree with a lot of what you said. I mean, now's the time to have this conversation, because I meant to bring it up at the top. But I learned a lesson at UFC 2. And it's a lesson that I've learned many times in this sport. And I came into 2023 thinking this, like that this wants to be a focal piece of my gambling moving forward. And it's just this.

Just take the better athlete. Who's the better athlete? Pick them. Because if you look at the main card of UFC 283, Jemal Hill is much better athlete than the almost senior citizen, Glover Tashara. Brandon Moreno and Davis and Figuero are probably pretty close athletically, though I would give the advantage to Moreno now that Figgie is getting a little older. Coincidentally, that was the closest of the main card fights, the ones where the athleticism was comparable. Gilbert Burns, Jessica and Drodge, and Johnny Walker are all light years above Neil Magne, Lauren Murphy, and Paul Craig in terms of athleticism. And they ran over their opposition as to be expected.

And it's just one of those things. Sometimes I forget. I was like, I know Gilbert Burns is a better athlete than Neil Magny, but like, Neil Magny's scrappy. You know, he likes to get a, he's a good, good fighter. I wouldn't do it. And instantaneously, that bet, I was like, oh, I just lit money on fire. Because Neil Magny, Jessica and Drogh is playing a different sport than Lauren Murphy is. People out there that tried to clown me for that, or say that Lauren Murphy was going to win the fight.

I had someone telling to someone who bet on her saying that, you know, I don't think she's going to win, but these odds are wrong. I was wrong. The odds were wrong. It should have been minus 12,000. Yes. Like Jessica Andrage, I had the under in that fight. That was tough to not cash. But I mean, that was just a beat down. Pillar to post. Yeah. And from the second it started to the second and ended. And that third round, like not even having the under. I was just like, they should call this, dude. but I am not enjoying watching this. Like, this woman is just losing brain cells by the second. I had over two and a half that cashed.

And I literally was like, this is, I told Mike Heck on the after show, I think. It's like, I feel, this feels dirty. Like, I don't want this money because that fight shouldn't have continued. But my point just being like, if you looked up and down 283, the winners were almost entirely just who's the better athlete. And Devin Clark isn't a terrible athlete. but I think Don Jung is actually like a sneaky, very good one. The way he moves, the fluidity.

And we, you know, they have a common opponent. And I know that Devin Clark did finish William Knight, but when we talk about that wrestling, Devin Clark likes to wrestle, he was much less successful wrestling William Knight than Don Jung is. I think Don John is going to win. I don't know if he gets to stoppage, though I can totally see where you're coming from.

But I just like to do, think he's a damn good fighter. and I'm going to take him at minus 240, put him in a parlay somewhere with somebody. Yeah, I'm with you, man. That's going to be. I kind of just like Don Jung as well. The Sam Alvy draw is a kind of sketch, you know, trying not to think about that.

You know, sort of plug the nose as you go through his resume. But yeah, Don Jung. We're both on them. We'll see what happens. Hopefully he gets it done. Moving on. To a heavyweight bout. Marcine Taibura,

taking on Blagoi Evenov. Right now you can have Taibora for the beautiful price of minus 135. Lecoi Ivanov at plus 115. A lot of money coming in on Evenov. I feel like Marcin Taibura has come down quite a bit.

Yeah, on Draft Kings, he opened at minus 195 all the way down to minus 135. Now, the people, the money seem to like Evanov this week. But more importantly, for your sake, the over under is set at two and a half over minus 205. It's the magic ticket. baby plus 165 so i'm joining you but i'm not just doing the over i am doing yeah goes to the

fight goes to a decision way to go i parlayed this with another fight that i will get to later on uh i mean dude if you're ever going to do a heavy weight over it feels like this is the one to do no like blc boy even i've been finished one time in his career nine years ago in all six of his ufc fights every ufc fight seven straight gone to a decision then tiburo five of his last seven, all gone to a decision. Feels like these are the two to do it. Yeah, Tibera, he's been knocked out four times. He's still durable, in my opinion.

And good news is, Bacoy, even off, has one K.O. in the last five, six years. Yeah, he's not a big knockout puncher. So, yeah. I have nothing on, you know. In terms of distance. So you know where I'm at. I'm on the over.

I'm not going thing. I'm just taking the over to stick with it. And for another reason. Because I do have a side. I don't feel wildly confident, but we just talked about how this fight is almost certainly going to decision or at least feels that way. Marcine Toboro minus 130 or 135, you said,

get him by a decision at plus 150. And given his track record and the fact that Evenoff doesn't, like he's been finished once, that just feels like that gap between his straight odds and his prop odds are too big. So I took Tibera by decision at plus 150. And that's, it just doesn't seem right. But then I don't want to have Tibero by decision and fight goes to the decision.

Those are, that's too overlapping. So give me, just took the over with it minus 230. And yeah, I don't know. I think this fight's probably going to be like some somewhat like Augusta Sakai versus Blago Ivanov, you know, just I think, I think Tiberi. just outworks him, but it's going to be ugly. This fight is not going to be pretty to watch, man. No, no, this is the fight where I will definitely have dozed off and, you know,

made it back to my chambers and wake up and realize that I didn't need to watch it in the first place because everyone's like, oh, that was a decent decision. All right, so we're both having it going along. You have Tybura by decision. Next up, it is a featherweight bout. The return of Dohoo Choi going up against Kyle Nelson. Right now you can get Choi for. the price of minus 180.

Kyle Nelson coming back at plus 155. The over under is set at two and a half. Best fight out doesn't have the lineup on that. So, you know, as I type in sports book, draft kings, you know, just set over to this guy. I don't actually have that in front of me. The UFC, the total rounds and then do who choice. Over under is set at two and a half under minus one Eddie over plus 145. I don't have a side here.

Actually, if you'll notice as we go through these picks, I don't have a side in almost all of these fights. I think I only took one, and it's a parlay piece in terms of a side. I played the under two and a half at minus 150. Choi, like I think he's going to win, but he's just coming back from this long layout, so I can't fully trust him at the price tag. But I mean, 10 of his last 11 have gone under the two and a half. Nelson, six of his last eight, under the two and a half. plus Nelson three of his last four losses he got finished in choy his last two losses he got finished

like feel like the finishing potential from both his eye and being finished is also i'm in a similar spot with you uh though i i took your the same logic i think that you're applying here but i picked aside uh i've taken doho t t ko plus 120 i do think we'd likely get a finish here and this could be entirely transparent this could just be me still holding on to my priors you know believing that man this kid coming off the tiago tovar's performances like hey this guy's one of the best prospects in the sport takes a bunch of time off you know had to do his service etc but incredibly fun to watch last five fights five performance bonuses three fights of the night uh and two performance of the nights like this dude is is hell on wheels and as

Kyle Nelson's a fun fighter, good fighter, but I think that Do Ho-O-Toy is better, and I think that we are likely to get a finish. So give me the plus money on Troy by stoppage. I like that. I like that, Do-Hu-Toy, Don Jong. We might be working with something here. Let's keep it rolling. The final fight on the main.

Free and Super Parlay? Is that what we're going to go? And then that's a nice little tease as we move on to the next one. It is the final fight on the main card. I just did that twice. said the final card. But it is the final fight on the main card. It's a welterweight bout. Usaku, Kinosita going up against Adam Fujit. Right now, you can have Kinosita for the lovely price of minus 320. Fujit coming back at plus 265. The over under is set at two and a half under minus

120. Over plus 100 though. I feel like that is that is no longer accurate. I'm just going to go to draft king sports book under minus 140 over plus 110 uh and i again i did play the under um i think it was dan best fight picks on twitter shout out to him great follow on twitter he pointed out just playing some highlights that uh usaku kinosita is like the japanese connor patient south paul big left hand uh ultra violent and when i went back and watched tape then i kind of went at it from that perspective I kind of saw it. I kind of saw it. I mean, he's a, he's a firecracker of a fighter. So I did find my way to the under on this one. Took the under two and a half at minus 130. I mean, if you just look back at Kinishita record, I mean, first of all, he is undefeated.

His one loss came by way of disqualification for stomping the dude's face out. Have you watched it? Like, the fact that they accredit that to grabbing the cage when he stomped dude's face out. It is like, oh my gosh, it is a very violent finish. But yes, he was grabbing the fence because he needed to get sturdy to put dude's face through the canvas with his foot. Getting leverage. It's the John Jones elbow. Literally.

Literally. Literally the exact same finish only instead of downward elbows, it's stomping a man's face. Yes. I actually just watched that John Jones one back recently and like, bro, he is wailing on dude forever. before it finally gets called with the 12 to 6 elbows. Well, yeah, that's right. He wasn't finishing him until he went to the illegal maneuver. Yeah, there it is.

There is. I like that. I like that. And I mean, like, Fujit looked all right against Morales. Like, I really wasn't that impressed. Last time out, I think it was a UFC 277. I kind of just feel like this fight holds the same fate for him. And he ends up getting finished in this one.

But if he ends up winning, like, if you just look back at the guy's records, obviously, Kenny Sheet is he's never gone to a decision. I mean, seven pro fights, five am, he's all under the two and a half. Fujit, seven straight fights under the two and a half. Kind of surprised to see the line where it is on the other two and a half. Maybe Vegas knows something that I don't, but I feel like these guys are going to come in here and throw, and someone's going to get dropped. But I really do think that Keneshita is going to come in here and make a statement and get it done. I parlay him up with the main event doesn't go to a decision.

Nice little weird parlay there for you on the main card. But yeah, that's what I'm at. I'm at the under and I'm at Ketushina. Yeah, I'm on Kanishita just as a parley piece. Probably should or could take an inside-the-distance of finish prop because everything you're saying. But everything you're saying is why I'm on it. Just a good prospect.

Dude looks like he's a real deal. 22, just a baby. But yeah, looks like he's the real deal. And Adam Fugget is the kind of guy you put in there to give him a good workout. And I think that that's what we're going to get here. So Kienashita is one of my open parlay pieces, figure out how to tie him all together and go from there. Love it. Lockstep in the final fight on the main card.

Let's move to the prelim. So we're only going to get into a few. We have a lot of agreement, I think, on this fight card in general so far. I like it. I like it. So we're only going to get into a few of these prelims. got a lot to get into. So we're only getting into four of them. Obviously, we still have Bellator and some boxing to get into. But let's go through those four right now. If we don't mention

the fight, if you don't hear it, that means we have no action on it. So if you want to hear say, oh, yeah, it should be a decent fight. I can't feel confident either way. I don't have any action on it, period. I won't even say that because on most of these fights, I didn't like these, some of this undercard stuff, I didn't even pretend to put in the work. It's like I'm not going to, I'm not going to look into this. I don't blame you. I don't blame you, man. But let's kick it off. First prelim that I do have some action on Rina Nakamura going against Toshimi Kama's. Let me try that one more time.

Toshimi Kazama. There it is. It's all about the inflection, you know. Hopefully I am getting that right. I mean, some of these names are tricky, having never heard of them before. I'm on the under two and a half in this one. Rini is a huge favorite and probably rightfully so. I mean, he's a 6-0 prospect.

Duda has incredible wrestling chops, U-23, wrestling world champion. back in 2017, silver medalist at the Japanese nationals. Like, he's an absolute beast. He's also got crazy knockout power watching back some of his tape. And if Kazama can't get takedowns, which I'm not really inclined to believe that he's going to. He went two for 13 on takedons in his first road to the UFC fight. And so far, Nakamura has stuffed all four takedons. I just don't see a way where he really ends up winning this fight.

And I think it probably stays standing in Nakamura just starches him. between their 18 combined professional fights, 15 of them have gone under the two and a half. And I just feel Nakamura puts his lights out. I haven't done it yet, but I'm kind of looking for a way to parlay Nakamura up. I feel like he gets this done and he gets it done pretty early. So what I'm also on Nakamura, again, for all the reasons you said,

his dude is about as good as you can hope for for somebody coming into this sport, given his credentials, and then what he's shown in his, relatively, you know, brief career at this point. And look, Kazama is not, he's not nothing, right?

Like, he has a good record. He's got some, some, call them okay wins. Like, he hasn't just been beating cans, is the point, but I'm saying.

But Rinyanakamura, this dude could be trying to make Olympic teams and instead is competing in MMA and looks like you would expect thus far. against better competition, frankly. So I'm on him, and I think what I'm going to do, kind of you know me. You know I love a gimmick.

I'm looking for ways to parlay these up. And you know what? I've got two heavy favorites, two Japanese heavy favorites. I think I'm just going to parley them up. I think I'm just going to take Kanishita, take Nakamura, Bob's your uncle, the Japanese parlay, pays out minus 160. It's called it. It's called a rap right there.

Are you going to find a way to add Tatsuro Taira into that? We're going to talk about Tatsuro Tire later. Those are long, long odds. Heavy price tag. Does it also, you know, phase you at all that Nakamura is facing a fellow Japanese fighter in Kazama? So it would if I was just making the Japanese parlay if that was the premise of the gimmick. But I really just already individually wanted to bet both of these people and their Japanese. So I'm thinking that that mitigates the problem there.

I don't think that's a bad look there at all. I mean, I feel like, I think Nakamura might be the biggest favorite on this card. I feel like he likes to get, no, no, he's not. Oh, yeah, Tatsuro Tire, I forgot. He's like a minus someone. We just talked about the biggest favorite on the card. However, I do think like they are the three biggest favorites on the card might be the three Japanese fighters. Oh, yeah.

The three of four, because Kazama is also. I think that actually is, yeah, the Japanese fighter is getting a heavy price tag this weekend. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't mind that one bit. All right, let's keep it rolling. Two, not just the men's flyweight bout, but the men's road to the UFC flyweight championship. What bout was that? That's a flyweight bout.

Is that 125 pounds? Undefeated 3-0 prop, the flyweight unders is what they know. Undefeated sounds good. This week, they're giving those big plus money. I took the under two and a half at plus one, 90. By the way, just to get it out of the way, it is, Shenzhen Park versus Sungguk Choi, 6 and 1, 7 and 0. And why not?

I mean, I say, I say why not? You probably out there listening, you're like, these flower and unders aren't going to last forever. Sungguk Choi, if you go back and look at his record, I mean, amateur career, if you go back to that, 11 of his last 13 have gone to a decision. I don't care, man, because there's magic in the air. Hyeongtung Park is minus 200,

and his first two road of the UFC fights ended in the first round. And actually, if you look at it, he's had six straight fights. Go on to the two and a half. He's also the favorite. He's got finishing capabilities, and I'm just going to say he just keeps it right on rolling here, gets himself a UFC contracts, and cashes another flyweight under.

I mean, at this point, they sell themselves. Like we don't have to We don't have to sell this anymore You don't got to put a ton on it It's plus 190 throw a half unit And enjoy yourself Exactly And we know what's going to happen

I will say The only other thing I will note here Listeners know me I looking at the card I wanted the gimmick I wanted the Troy Parley I wanted it I can't do it

Because Sung Sun Zhuy I don't think he's going to win And I think that he is the he is less what we want to happen, right? The flyweight under magic seems more likely to happen with our boy, Jonsung Park.

And so can't put Troy in a Troy parley. I'm just going the under on this fight, no other bet. All right. I love it. I mean, it's easy. It's easy. The work is done for us. That's my favorite part.

Next up. We talked about this car being bad. I will say it gave me four bets that I had to think zero about before laying them blindly. And what's better than that? I appreciate it. And make research easy. Cannot complain about that one bit.

And we go from a men's flyweight bout to a woman's flyweight bout. It is G. Jan Kim. G. John Kim, Hive stand up, the mob, the mafia. We were all there when she was robbed by Priscilla Ketchawar. We all saw it with our own two eyes, the worst robbery in the history of not just the UFC, but the sport of MMA.

We were all there. She takes on Mandy Baum. Right now, you can have. have the four-fight losing streak owner G. Yun Kim at minus 260 versus the O and two in the UFC Mandy Baum plus 220. I am not on a side here. I am on the fight goes to a decision. Parlayed that up with our beautiful heavyweights. Marcin Taibura and Blagoi Ivanov minus 325. How did I not even look at that? I mean, Mandy bomb. Minus 325 fight goes to a decision. Mandy Baum, untrustable in my opinion.

Gian Kim, lover, part of the G. John Kim Mafia, but four straight losses, tough to trust her. If she comes out and does what she does, if she's just that high volume striker that we know her to be, that she was when she was brutally robbed against Priscilla Catcherware, she'll win this fight easily, no doubt about it. What I do know, what I do know for a fact

that I don't even have to ask questions about, these women have had 11 UFC fights between the two and 10 of them have gone to a decision. I don't expect to finish here. I think it goes, I think it goes the full 15. Oh, that's a good parlay piece.

You said it's 350? I took minus 325. No, minus 325. I mean, that's, I'm going to have to find a way to work that end. For whatever reason, I didn't even like consider,

I guess I just had a brain fart, didn't even look at overs in this fight. But yeah, probably going to find a way to work in. Over two and a half or that, whatever to some sort of a parley I don't have a bet

I briefly flirted with the idea of Mandy bomb not because I think Mandy bomb's good or because but I'm just not sure that Gian Kim should ever be a minus two and change favorite over any I'm with you

it just seems that price is like a minus 140 I'm blasting G on Kim to the moon and that's probably why the books made her minus 360 Yeah, minus 260 is just a, it just isn't a price that I feel is acceptable. And so I considered it. You say that. Go ahead, go ahead.

Oh, I said, then I went back and I went back to the number one tenant that's my betting, my betting guiding light of this year of who's more athletic. And it ain't Mandy Baum. Oh, I'm saying, that one is not athletic enough for me to feel that I can take an underdog bet on her. So I had nothing. Okay. But now I'm going to take this, this, this goes to decision.

This is perfect that you say that. This is perfect that you say that because you team me up for another fight that I want to get into that. That brings us to the most imperative part of this entire podcast, the middle way bout. I love what you're about to say. I know, I already know what you're about to say. I couldn't be more excited about it. Very early on in these prelims. It's a middle way bout between Jun Young Park and Dennis.

Tulun, one of the just toughest names in the UFC. I mean, T-I-U-L-I-U-N. That is him. Right now, you can have Jun-Yung Park for minus 200. To Lulun coming back at plus 170. So what I want to propose to you, if you're looking at this, UFC, Korea, Apex, 68, a lot of Korean fighters fighting this weekend. There's seven of them, but one of the fights is Korea versus Korea. This was supposed to be in South Korea, in Seoul, would have been fantastic. So what we have is five individual Korean fighters, you know, fighting against different people. They're taking on the world, the Russia's, the Germany's.

Korea versus the world. Korea versus the world. Canada, America. I mean, they're literally going against just about everyone. You know, we're touching all the corners of the globe. So what I want to do is throw out this to you. The five Korean fighters are this. Jun Yong Park, the Iron Turtle Ji Yan Kim

Love Ji on Kim I had to find a way to player Jung Yong Li Duhu Choi Da Anjong All favorites All minus 180 are bigger Parlay all five of them up

Pays out plus 540 Only plus 540 Wow Honestly I thought the number would be bigger So I don't hate it I'm not going to join you. Wow.

I'm not going to join you. Now with that, with that, what did you think I was going to say? I thought you were just going to say, let's take the Don Jung and let's parley him up with Jun Yung Park. Because I'm with you in the logic of Dennis Tallulin is a negative athlete. Like as far as the turtle is not the world's most jump off the page athlete, you know, the Iron Turtle. uh jen young park but dennis touloulin is the slowest man i've seen since sam alvey fighting in there he just ain't got it and so i don't mind at all laying a little bit of wood there with with the iron turtle and don jung as a korean favorite parley i frankly didn't realize that there were that many big

that that there were that many favorites because in my head i'm just not really even considering the road to the UFC fights. And that's where I, that's where I have pause because I have to say only, only one of them is road to the UFC. I know, but I have literally never seen Jung-Yong-li fight. I, I don't want to place a bet on somebody that I know absolutely nothing about. To me, this is just trusting in the Korean spirit at this point. I mean, so you're looking to do the Da'an Jung-Jung-Yung Park parlet. And that pays up plus 112. It rolls right off the tongue. I mean, it rolls right off the tongue. Don Jung Jung Jung Park Parlay I mean that is that sounds great

I mean you're talking about the D-U-JJ Y YP It's it's a great play I think that's where I'm going to parley up Don Jung with the Jung Park That takes plus 112 plus 112 So you know I've got a Korean parley I've got a Japanese parley I don't have a five leg parley which I feel great about

Because you know I don't want to have a five leg parley That's just it's too much I'm going with the SKP, the Super Korean Parlay. Super Korean Parlay. Actually, should we go Korean Super Parlay? KSP? Korean Super Parlay, because it's like Korean Super Boy.

Yeah, Korean Super Parlay. I will be going with that. Putting a small sprinkle, I'll probably put a quarter unit on that. Yeah, I like the sound of that. Put a quarter unit on that. That is what I will be going with. It's beautiful. Yeah, I guess I'm going to have to get Korean barbecue for dinner on Saturday night

to make sure that I'm aligned with everything in my body. Everything's ready to go for the Korean Super Parlay. I'm excited for it at this point. I mean, honestly, I was leaning all of them anyway, except for John Younglee, just because like you, I really did not do much tape. And he is fighting a 21 and 3 fighter. But I fell in love more when I realized that, like,

they're just covering the globe. Like, they're fighting a Russian. uh, John Young Park is fighting a Russian. Gi Yan Kim is fighting a German. Jung Jung Lee is fighting a man from China. Uh, Dohoo Troy is fighting a Canadian.

Don Jung is fighting an American. Like it's, it's perfect. I mean, well, like I said, I'm already on Dohoo Troy. So I'm with you on that one.

I think Gian Kim probably does beat Mandy bomb, though I wouldn't trust her or Mandy bomb ever. I, if you're going to lose one, I think you're going to lose the, the Jung-Yang Li fight, because, again, based on zero tape, haven't watched either man, but Ja Yi, on paper, looks pretty decent, you know, whatever he's 21 and 3, solid-ish records on his opposition, young dude looks good getting off the bus, you know, that seems like

the risky proposition in your parlay, but I'm, I'm here for you. I'm hoping that hits. the Korean super parley And listen we all remember his road to the UFC fight at Road to UFC 5 against Kiyomi Matsushima I mean split decision razor close I actually thought

you know looking back on it Matsushima should have taken it on the scorecards There was a case There was a case to be made for sure I mean you know I'm riding it I'm riding it You can't talk me out of it now I love the energy placing it as soon as I get off here

you know a quick 15 spot And I'll just wake up to that one. Leads us to our final fight to talk about on this UFC card. And that is another men's flyweight bout. This time, it's a men's flyweight bout. 125 and under and under. Tatsuro Tira taking on Jesus Aguilere. Right now, you can have Tatsuro Tara for the short, playable price of minus 1,150.

Jesus Santos Aguilera coming back at plus 750. So here's what I did. For some reason, one of the books that I was playing it that dropped the props earlier did not have the under available. They just had the fight goes to a decision available. So that's what I played. Played it at minus 170. I understand the word under is not in there.

But I just played fight goes to a decision. Listen, then. You want me to just do the math for you right here? When you played fight doesn't go to a decision. Yeah, fight does not go to a decision. Just clarifying to the listeners there. Like, do you want to do the math? Tatsuro Tire is a minus 1,150 favorite.

Nine of his 12 wins are by finish. None of those finishes reach the third round. You cannot justify a price tag of minus 1150 if you do not get a finish. Like, let's just be plain and simple. Nope. I don't know. I'm not sure you can justify this price tag at all.

but for sure. A first round finish, in my opinion, justifies it. Like an easy first round finish. Maybe. An easy one, yes. I mean, if he looks like Jelten Almeida, then yeah, but. Yes. Yeah, I mean, honestly, though, like, he's pretty young.

Like, I mean, there's like a world where, like, this is not even close to being justified. But what I will be doing is playing the fight does not go through a decision. I think that's, I'm with you because I'm, I'm, on the under one and a half. I don't need to go into Y plus 115. Easiest bet I made all, well, not the easiest to mean. I had several very similarly easy bets to wager.

You didn't think about waiting on the two and a half. You said, no, I do one and a half. They're giving me, no, plus money under one and a half. Eight, eight of Tyra's career wins are under one and a half. It's going to happen. Here's the deal, though. Okay. Tell me the deal.

Took a shot. Fired it up. Fired up. Take a shot. Aguilar plus $7.50. Fired it up to a shot. We are getting funky here. It's just, it's such a big number, and I love Tatsu or Taira.

He's the man, dude. There was a stretch where I was like all in on Mahama Mikhail, and I still super high on Mohamukaiv and think he will 1,000% fight for a belt and probably win it. but the last years may me be like maybe I should have been that hyped on Tyra because he has just been electric lights out just nothing but violence and action Jesus Santos Aguilar is not a push over I know that this this kid is not as young as Tyra but he is still 25 26 uh 8 and 1 record and some some quality wins and quality performances in all of that that I think if the flyweight under magic is going to die, you know, undefeated right now, if it's going to go somewhere, this is the fight where maybe it backs off on us because I think Aguilar is really tough. Aguard can grapple. I've got a sick gilly. Tyra and he, I think we're going

to get some really fun exchanges on the ground. I do favor Tyra, but this price is just too big, in my opinion. And maybe he'll come out and justify it. Maybe we'll come out and just hustle Aguilar off the floor, but I'm taking a very small shot, you know, just a fire to half a unit, don't need to throw a full unit at a price like 750, especially when I don't have a wild amount of confidence in it, but going for it. So Aguilar plus 750, half unit fire, and then of course, the under one and a half. Love it. I love it. That's a bold play on you. We'll see if it works out. be really cool if Jesus Aguilera just got a finish knowing both cash you know unders.

I mean, if anybody gets finished, it'll be great. So if, if Agri-Lar gets finished in the first round, I won't even be sad because then I'm still hitting the under and I'm still making money. There you go. There's always a positive in everything. That's what we have to remember. All right. That is UFC Korea Apex 68.

With Instacard, you get groceries that over-deliver So you can over-share your preferences. Want russet potatoes with no brown spots? You got it. Want turnips that look light but feel heavy? Easy. Want honey-crisp apples that are firm green And definitely not Macintosh like last year

When you lost the fall bake-off to perfect Penelope Johnson? Okay, a bit TMI, but we're here for it. So download the app today and get zero delivery fees on your first three orders. Instacard, groceries that over-deliver. Service fees exclusions in terms of apply that ties a bow on that let's move to uh the second part of this no bets barred podcast which is bellator two 90 bellator making its return to cbs the retirement fight for fador amelianenko um so what are we thinking oh uh i just pulled up draft kings uh the odds have since this was maybe an hour ago

So the odds I had Bader at minus 225, which I immediately bet. He's already down to minus 265 on Trafft Kings. So what I was going to bring up to you, actually, is there are some books that have some playable numbers out there for Ryan Bader. I mean, when we started this podcast, actually, he was minus 215. He has now dropped. And I was saying to myself, like, I have to play this. Right? Oh, see, the question is not, you have to, it's how much?

So, look, Ryan Bader has been known to pull victory from the jaws of defeat time and again in his career, but they fought before the fight went exactly as you would have anticipated at the time. And Emilian Anko is much, much older, and I don't think there's any real reason. I think Fado is the greatest heavyweight fighter of all time. Things are five best fighters of all time. One of my personal favorites, I love that man. and this will be sad to watch this happen. And if he wins, that will be tremendous.

It will be one of the best moments that has happened in this sport in years. The last emperor gets to go out on top. What a story, what an exit, what in everything. And maybe this informs my betting, because I won't even care that I will lose this bet. But I reflexively, I thought this fight was going to be minus 400. Because they'd fought before, and it was very clear what happened. And sure, maybe Bader's lost some off his step two. But Fador is like a couple of years away from an AARP card.

There's no, he's 46, man. Like, I don't, this, I, when I saw 2.25, I was like, okay, I put five units on it. So. Wow, five units. Let's go. I was like, all right, well, this number seems very dumb. And maybe I get punished for it. And if I do, I can live with it.

and, you know, because it'll be such a great moment. But the price at minus 225 seemed insane. I think any price up to minus three is still pretty fine for a bet. Yeah, I mean, I saw minus 215 earlier at that same book. It has already plummeted down to minus 270. There's still some books out there that got minus 240. I was coming to you for reassurement. I was like, what am I missing here?

Like, I have to play this. I'm not going to go throw, I'm not going to do five units on it. But yeah, I mean, I'm about to throw some cheddar on Ryan Bader as we speak right now. Yeah, I think the, because after I made the bets, I was just like, I think the answer just has to be how quickly he lost to Corey Anderson. You know, Corey Anderson put a right hand behind the ear and wobble them. And Fador still hits hard and it's kind of quick and can maybe do the same. but I just, I don't know, man. We saw Bader knocked Fader out in 30 seconds, and that fight,

it's hard to say this for a 30-second fight, but that fight was not competitive. So it's just like, I don't, what are we, we know what, I know how this fight's going to go. I think it's going to go exactly the same. And if it doesn't, it's going to be Bader power double in Fador, and then smooching him on the ground. So I really do.

don't know what's going on. Actually, I actually do know what's going on. I won't lie. I know what's going on. I mean, people want to see, yeah, people want to see Fador win in their final fight, but it looks like the market is now correcting itself from that. Yeah, I mean, I think that's got to be it, right? Yeah, I mean, I see some people being like, sort of what you just said.

Like, it was just like, oh, well, like Ryan Bader is much older now. It's like, okay, well, I guess I forgot when Fador jumped in the time machine and got to pause time for himself. That would be dope though. That would be sick. That would be awesome. Everything you're saying, I've just placed Ryan Bader at minus 240, didn't get the minus 220 that you got.

Like this line is moving. It's a rollercoaster ride. I think this might be like one of the three times I've ever gotten a better line than you. Well, yeah, someone asked me about that last week. It's not something I'm proud of. I live on best fight odds in fight odds. That I owe and I have Twitter notifications and that's why I'm like always up on lines. You're grinding.

It's something that I look forward to now. ever doing again. Yeah, there will be come a time in my life when I'm done with this stage and it will be nice. It will be peaceful when I don't run to my phone when I hear a Twitter notification because those are the only two places I get notifications from. But yeah, I was like really, I'm kind of bummed that I missed out on the 215, but I was looking for the reassurement from you. Yeah, I was just like, what am I missing here? And I thought maybe you'd come in. I know you obviously think Fator is the greatest heavyweight of all time. I thought you might come in and be like, come on dude like we can't go against him in this last one but it's just like i had every intention

it's a win win now it is every intention arch is this man flat it's a legends moment we we get the he rides off into the sunset it's beautiful or we get the cash a ticket and it's just like why wasn't that minus a thousand because i'm with you he either he either like i mean fador could always catch him dude like heavyweight fight he could always catch him but like he either catches him or the other option is Ryan Bader just slams this man to the ground and just has a boring Ryan Bader win. Yeah, it's, it's one of two outcomes. And I'd say, I intended to come on here and be like, same as I did with Shogun at 283, was like, I know Shogun's washed and old. I don't care. I'm going to bet on him because I won't be on the wrong side of history. I intended to do that

with Fador. And then the line, I was like, this is so wrong. Like, this line looks so wrong to me that I can't not so here i am having gotten the prop yet but uh fight doesn't go to a decision or under four and a half under three and a half whatever the playable line is that i will be parlaying that up so a thousand percent uh the other note i have on this fight don't know when if these are dropping but would you care to take a guess if you don't know off the top of your head the last time fado amelianenko uh got out of the first round winner lose. I know his entire Bellator career has ended in the first round. That is sure correct. And it was in fact the fight immediately before that, a decision in 2016. And then before that, three first round

finishes in a row. So of his last one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, his last 10 fights, nine of them have ended in the first round. And I am so confident that that's the outcome here as well. Whenever that drops, I will be taking fight ends in the first round bet. It probably won't even be a great price given that. But Fedor comes out to be exciting and to throw hands and somebody's going to drop. I mean, if you even just look at it, most of these finished in the first two minutes. You're looking at several in the first minute.

You want a little stat here. Fedor, 40 and 6. 4D6. I thought that was kind of weird. I don't know if that's, you know, just like, don't know what that means. Don't know how to interpret it. He's 40 and 6. I didn't think about it, but that's interesting.

And he's 46. So you do with that information, whatever you want, take that one home, sleep on it. Don't know what it means yet. I haven't figured it out. I'm sure there's something there. But in his six-fight, Belator, rear. The fight length has been an average of one minute and 57 seconds, all six of them ending the first round. He's made over the half round twice. So for that reason, for everything that we're just saying right now,

it has become available on bet online. They just dropped all their over unders. I did just play the under one and a half minus two, 25. Oh, God. Yeah. Hammer it. And then whenever somebody drops a, you know, I love that there's like an over four and a half as if that's a thing that's going to happen. Right. Like, I mean, like, it's like either Fader Starchism, Ryan Bader Starchism, or like, Fader's 46, dude. We're not going 25 minutes. There's really only those two outcomes. They're going to throw hands one man's going to fall down.

Probably going to be Fator. And yeah. So what I'm thinking, which now, wow, I'm glad I got in at minus 240. I'm very sorry to our listeners if they haven't played Ryan Bader yet. As we discussed that, Ryan Bader was minus 265 as we were discussing that. He was minus 215 when we started the show. I literally have it in my notes. Ryan Bader is minus 215. We have to play this. What am I missing, Jed? That is literally written down to my notes. Minus 215. He was minus 265 three seconds ago when we were talking about this. He is now minus 285 on Draft Kings. And on Bet Online, he is minus 310. So I'm actually glad with my minus 240 that I jumped in. No, minus 315. Literally just move to minus 315. Oh my God.

Literally, I'm staring at it and it hits the light up and change the odds. Wow. Wow. This is, we are watching closing line value in real time. This is so incredible. I mean, this is fantastic stuff from us. I'm really loving this. Wow.

The thing dropped 100 points in less than that. Did someone give the link to Draft Kings for the No Bet's Barred record session because they might be listening in right now? I mean, what is going on here? So here's something I want to throw out to you for the Bellator card. And I'm going to take a long and winding road. We're going to loop around and then we'll come back to the co-main. So what I want to throw out, because I don't just like it, love it.

It's probably going to be a terrible price, but I'm probably going to kind of have to unload a little bit on this one. Third card down, this is only a three-fight main card, which is very odd. Sabahomasi is taking on Brennan Ward. This fight is guaranteed. fireworks guaranteed it's a good fight it's fun fight fun fun fight fun fight fight fight fight does not go to a decision i don't know what that is going to be priced but parlaying that up with ryan bader and a million anko just feels like it is destined to hit like if i'm

getting that parlay at anything less than like minus 250 i'm going to be forced to play it uh homasi 14 of his last 19 have gone under the one and a half brennan ward 19 19 straight fights for this man have ended inside the distance. For Ryan Bader. I mean, this is, wow. Someone has tapped into this, I swear to God. Draft King, shout out to y'all. 16 of which Brendan Ward's 19 straight have ended under the one and a half,

which is why I also just played the under one and a half for that fight. I need a Bader, Thedor, Homasi Ward. Fight is not to go to a decision parlay, because I am really thinking about dropping a bomb on that guy. I think that's a good parley. Feels like a really good parley. Do you have any other action on Bellator

outside of that kind of plan, that thought, that idea? No. What are he like? The co-main event, Johnny Eblen, who I watched live dethrone, Gagard Musassi. Musassi did not have one thing

for this man over the course of 25 minutes. It was just destruction from the gatego. But, but with that, set. He's now a minus 200 against Anatoly Tokoff, who is like no joke. Like, this dude is 31 and 3. Has had a lengthy career.

Like, if you look at his losses, too, split decision to Ramazanamiv and the one against Magamemad, Maramemak Karamov, like, he's losing the big names now. I haven't bet it. I don't know if I can get around the minus 200 on Eblen. Like, I feel like I lean

Evelyn just because he was so impressive against Musassi, but Yeah, I don't know. Any more action for you, sir? So I'm going to put Eblen in a parlay because I do just like Eblen. I just think he's a really damn good fighter. I mean, he does. I can't argue with that.

I mean, the way that he just, I was on Musassi and I was on Musassi heavy and the way that he just ousted, dude, like he's just 25 methodical minutes of just beat down. Yeah, and that's it. I mean, the ATT team, you know, one of if not the most respected team in the sport. glowing about this dude had been for a while and I was pretty high on him but I didn't think he would do what he did to Musassi and that performance was just so stellar that is the leveling up moment I think this kid's gonna be really good tokov is one of the best fights frankly that Bellator can put together and so this fight's awesome but I'm gonna go with Eblin I don't

really know and there's like a bunch of other fights and I'm have I haven't had the chance to really dive into tape and feel confident, but, you know, like, Neiman Gracie should beat Dante Shiro, like, just offhandedly. Like, that seems like that should be a real easy one. It's price like that. I do have a, I have a note here. Is Neiman Gracie the one to break the, uh, the submission bed streak? Maybe.

That could, that could definitely be a thing. And that's, I haven't done enough tape to really, so I don't have any bets on any of this other stuff. But it's just like, Dary and Caldwell feel like, I don't know that Nikita Mikhailov is actually good. And Darren Caldoa isn't great, but at one time he was very good and he does have a really, really good skill. And that counts for a lot. You know, Max Ropschoff's out there again.

They're actually a bunch of like somewhat compelling fights here. We've got a Magamatov fighting. I know we know the Magamatov rule. Maybe I just parlayed the Magamadov up, Ahmed Magamatov, who maybe, maybe isn't I don't know that he's the next guy or whatever but 26 year old undefeated dude who has looked

quite impressive for much of his career so I just don't know where I want to go with some of the rest I was hoping maybe you had something jump out I feel like I it's kind of been speaking to me like I feel like Gracie is a good parley piece like he's on a skid he's not a terrible fighter and like you kind of want to keep like

as from a Bellator standpoint like you kind of want to keep a Gracie around. Like there's not many left out there. Mm-hmm. But like the thing is like who are we parlin it up? Like I can't trust Isaiah Hokka. If I parlay him up with Johnny Eblen and Ahmed Magamadov, it's got Magamad the name. What do we say about Magamette's like rule number three.

They don't lose. Yeah. That pays plus 153 those three parlayed. That's, that's a good price that I'm actually probably going to take. If you don't want Johnny Eblen in that, it's minus 149 it's a little healthier on that but i'm going to go ahead and take that poli while we're talking about it here magamatov gracie eblin palet that up just just a stew a stew a heavy favorites plus 153 baby i mean there's nothing better there is nothing better i think the more

i think about it now i might do the bater amelienko homasi ward those don't go to a decision and then maybe do like Eblen Tocco of over one and a half or maybe I just throw Gracie in there

Yeah just go with whatever what about your boxing stuff as we're closing down anything you can pair it in with boxing Yeah I mean I feel like Amanda Serrano

is a very solid parlay piece I mean she has to win this fight for several reasons one she's just the better fighter in this situation

though Erica Cruz is no bum but she is fighting for the undisputed she's trying to get the fifth belt for the women's featherweight division and she needs to win this fight to get Katie Taylor to where the big money's at in terms of women's boxing

like she needs to win it I did parlay up I did Richardson Hitchens Alicia Baumgartner and Amanda Serrano parlay that pays out of minus 175 yeah three favorites big juicy price tag that's kind of what you get in boxing

unless you're getting these really competitive fights I also did Sky Nichols and by decision. Let me check on what the line is at right now. I'm wondering how many people are going to end up having it. She's obviously a just a monster, heaping monster of a favorite. Yeah, right now there's only one book that has it. It's minus 225.

So just like if you want some statistics on this one, obviously she's 5 and 0, all 5 wins by decision. 149, 149 amateur fights for Sky Nicholson. Yes, I do know that amateur fights are only three by three rounds. And this is her first 10 round fight. One KO. One KO and 149 amateur fights. 148 went those full nine minutes. To me, that just proves that she doesn't have that KO finishing power.

I just have a feeling. I mean, she said it yesterday on the MMA hour. Most all of her wins come by decision. I expect this one to be a by decision as well. So yeah, $2.25, I think that's a decent price tag for someone that's like a minus $4,000 favorite. So that's what I got. It's only the last four. Don't know if that's parlayable up.

Maybe I'll take the main event in the UFC to not go to a decision and really just lay it all in the line with that one. But need the rest of these props to drop before I say anything final. I'm with you. I think Neiman Gracie is a pretty solid parlay piece. Johnny Evelyn, I can't decide on it. Because, like, so he burned me on Gayguard. If he burns me here by me parlaying him up at like minus 200, you know, it'll be sick.

It's just not a partnership that works, you know? Yeah, you know what? Sometimes that happens. What I need to do, what I need to do, have a little restraint. Have a little restraint here. I'm just not going to play the Johnny Eblen fight. I'm going to hope that he wins because I'm with you. I like Johnny Eblen as a fighter.

I'm going to just stay away. Look at you. We're learning lessons. We're still in January. We're becoming better gamblers. That's what we're doing here. We're learning lessons. I've learned to just bet on the better athlete every time.

You're showing restraint. Restraint, keep it tight, keep it focused. And remember, folks, as much as I just talked about, about Hamasi Ward and Bader Emilyenko, not going to decisions being locks, there are no locks. That is always a nice reminder. Zero locks.

So, yeah, that Bellator 290 discussion was like a little bit messy. but I feel like we got out everything that we were going to set. No, I knew it was going to be messy because it's kind of, it is messy. It's a sneaky, not terrible fight card. It's a good Bellator card. It's on CBS. We've got two title fights of the bigger men's divisions. It's exciting because we get to maybe see the continuation of Johnny Ebblin becoming a star for Belator and Fador.

It's the retirement fight. It's big, but still. And that Bellator opening sequence hits. and I see their little graphic and it's the, you know, the corny montage. I just get the PTSD and I'm like, oh, God, I'm about to lose some money. So it doesn't matter the quality of the Belator card. I just can't get to invest it on it. Oh, yeah, I can't.

I get to invested on it financially all the time and it never works out for me. Never works out. I've never made money on Belator. I'm convinced. Dude, a fantastic nice. like the best night Bellator can offer me is like a plus like 0.53 units. The first two Bellator cards. And the worst night is like minus six.

Yes. The first two Bellator cards. And like also like when Bellator is on Friday and you just start the weekend off like down four units, it's just like. Then you're just digging out a hole. I do this. I just hate this. The first two Bellator cards I bet on, I went undefeated and they started calling me Bellator

Burks. And ever since, it's been a complete blood bath, blood bath, dude. Here's the problem, though, because of the UFC's late start time, this is kind of like a Friday card in that these belly bets, if they go belly up on them and I'm down a couple of unies, then that UFC start time comes in and I'm like, all right, well, maybe I should throw some money on Gion Kim. And then I start chasing it.

And then just saying, the Bellator being earlier than the UFC could, if things go wrong, result in a really tough weekend for me. You know what? I'm just clearing out the bank roll on G. Yon Kim. I got to get this back somehow. I got to get that money back. That Ryan Bader money, I dumped all of it into him, convinced he would do it.

If those words leave your mouth this weekend, yeah, G. Yon Kim, it's time to chase on Gion Kim. That's a 1-800 gambler moment. That is a 1-800 gambler moment. This is so true. All right. All right, that's it. We did it.

Quick 90 minutes. Cover three sports. All right, just to recap, I have, these are going to be littered all over the place. I have Don Jung by KOTKO. I have Choi Park under two and a half. That is the Rote UFC fight plus 190. I have Nakamura, Kaza, Kazama, under two and a half minus 155. I have Tatsuro Taira Aguilare. Fight does not go to a decision minus 170. I have Kinosito Fugit under two and a half minus 130. I have Dohoo Troy versus Kyle Nelson under 2.5 minus 150. I have Ryan Bader

minus 240. I have the under 1.5 minus 225. I have a parlay of Gianquim, Blagoi evenov goes the distance. The

Tibori Ivanov goes the distance. Giang Kim goes the distance. Parlay. That's even The non-violence parlay. The non-violence parlay. Then I have main event, Derek Lewis, does not go to a decision parlayed with Kino-Shita. That pays out minus 178. Then I have boxing.

Hitchens, Baumgartner, Serrano minus 175 parlay. I'm going to work in some violence parlayes for Bellator. I love the pacifist parlay. I'm a big fan of the pacifist parley. Yo, that's a great name for it, actually. the PP, the pastoral. I want credit for that when you fire that out on the American. Please, thank you.

Yeah, just to go with a sloppy episode, they were my picks in a very sloppy way. And I'm looking forward to it. It should be a great weekend of combat sports. It hasn't been a break for me. I've just been cashing Royal Rumble tickets over here. No big deal. Undefeated Royal Rumble?

Undefeated Royal Rumble. Not going to give myself a nickname because then I'll jinx myself, but loving the Royal Rumble. Good to be back to real combat sports, though. It is. I ended up with a ton because that's what always happens. That's what happens. I've got Louis Spivak over one and a half at plus 100.

I took a shot on Lewis in round three at plus 1,600. Just a little baby, baby, nothing much there. Tubura by decision plus 150. Tabur even off over two and a half, it's a heavyweight over. It's minus 230. It's actually the worst odds of anything I'm betting. I got some juice this week. I'm not going to lie.

What's new? I don't mostly. I've juiced in the parlays. Doho Troy by KOTKRO plus 120. Troy Park under two and a half flywood under plus 185. The other flywood under Aguilar, Tyra under 1.5 plus 115. Also taking a half unit shot on Aguilar at plus 750 just to see. A big, big bet on Ryan Bader five unies down at minus 225.

I'm sorry you don't get that price. In case you weren't keeping up with it, though. That price is now minus 3.20. 25 at draftings. I can't. Like, that had to have been, the best content we've put out in a while. The live. Oh, yeah, I think Ryan Bader's still like minus 215.

Nope, it's minus 265. Okay, I'm going to play it at a different book at minus 240. Oh, shit, now it's minus 300. Oh, no, there it goes. Minus 325. Who knows what it will be at by the time people are listening to this? It's like that moment in the big short when they're watching the debate and the stock price is going down and they just keep getting text updates.

oh my goodness it keeps dropping it's exactly the same i i like i've i've never experienced anything like i've been betting for almost 10 years now and now that i'm like so deep in dama i've never experienced anything like it it is literally like playing a stock market sometimes yeah it was that was nuts uh i'm gonna take a shot on fador or beta round one whenever that becomes something i can shoot at and then i've got three parlays uh kinosita nakamura the japanese parley peynazita nakamura the japanese parley is on minus 161. The South Korean parlay, just the two legs of it, though, Don Jung and Jun Park, that pays out, I don't have what that pays out in front of me.

It's like plus 130 or something like that. And then I'm going to go with the belly parlay, Neiman Gracie, Ahmed Magamatov, Johnny Eblen pays out plus 153. And those are the bets. That's the show. That's the show. I forgot to say I do have the Korean parlay that I'm going to put in, plus five, 40 it's all the you can't leave the korean super parley out yeah i mean the korean superparlay

korea versus the world super parley we're still workshopping the name trademarks going out that will be happening fun show 90 minutes for the people covered a lot covered a lot two events and the little boxing yeah yeah i will be at the boxing event i'll have my portable charger on me so i can stream S. Belator and UFC undercard. Gonna just be a jam-packed weekend. Actually,

not even a jam-packed weekend. It's just like from 6 p.m. on Saturday night to like 4 a.m. on Sunday morning. So a nice 10 hours. Jam-pack 10 hours. Jam-pack 10 hours. There's a lot.

There's a lot of fights happening in those 10 hours. It's going to be fun. Can't wait. Wouldn't ask for anything more. When I pass out on my couch at 1.30 and miss the rest of the UFC card, and I wake up at 5 a.m. in my drool and I'm like, what's going on?

And then I check my, you know, my bank rolls, my betting accounts, and it's just all zeros across the board. I don't know what I'm going to do with myself. But that's what we get for UFC Korea Apex 68. That's what it is. So until next time, next week, next week, UFC 284, Australia, pound for pound number one verse pound for pound number two. Might be working on trying to get an Australian on the show, someone from down under,

someone that can tell me whether or not Vegemite is good. TBD. Oh, it's terrible. I'm going to try it. Nope, but I'm going to try it for the first time during UFC 284. Did you have it just a spoonful on some toast? No, on some toast, yeah. We can cover that next week.

That's all we got for this show. UFC Korea, Apex 68, Bellator 290, Amanda Serrano versus. Erica Cruz. That's all. See you next week. Love you guys. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.